Increased risk of cognitive and functional decline in patients with atrial fibrillation: results of the ONTARGET and TRANSCEND studies

Background:

The role of atrial fibrillation in cognitive impairment and dementia, independent of stroke, is uncertain. We sought to determine the association of atrial fibrillation with cognitive and physical impairment in a large group of patients at high cardiovascular risk.

Methods:

We conducted a post-hoc analysis of two randomized controlled trials involving 31 546 patients, the aims of which were to evaluate the efficacy of treatment with ramipril plus telmisartan (ONTARGET) or telmisartan alone (TRANSCEND) in reducing cardiovascular disease. We evaluated the cognitive function of participants at baseline and after two and five years using the Mini–Mental State Examination (MMSE). In addition, we recorded incident dementia, loss of independence in activities of daily living and admission to long-term care facilities. We used a Cox regression model adjusting for main confounders to determine the association between atrial fibrillation and our primary outcomes: a decrease of three or more points in MMSE score, incident dementia, loss of independence in performing activities of daily living and admission to long-term care.

Results:

We enrolled 31 506 participants for whom complete information on atrial fibrillation was available, 70.4% of whom were men. The mean age of participants was 66.5 years, and the mean baseline MMSE score was 27.7 (standard deviation 2.9) points. At baseline, 1016 participants (3.3%) had atrial fibrillation, with the condition developing in an additional 2052 participants (6.5%) during a median follow-up of 56 months. Atrial fibrillation was associated with an increased risk of cognitive decline (hazard ratio [HR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.26), new dementia (HR 1.30, 95% CI 1.14–1.49), loss of independence in performing activities of daily living (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.19–1.54) and admission to long-term care facilities (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.31–1.79). Results were consistent among participants with and without stroke or receiving antihypertensive drugs.

Interpretation:

Cognitive and functional decline are important consequences of atrial fibrillation, even in the absence of overt stroke.A trial fibrillation is an important and modifiable cause of ischemic stroke, which may result in considerable physical and cognitive disability.¹ In addition, atrial fibrillation is associated with an increased risk of covert cerebral infarction, which is reported in about one-quarter of patients with atrial fibrillation who undergo magnetic resonance imaging of the brain.² Thus, atrial fibrillation may be an important determinant of cognitive and functional decline, even in the absence of clinical ischemic stroke. However, previous epidemiologic studies evaluating atrial fibrillation’s association with cognitive function have been inconsistent,^3–13 and very few have evaluated its association with functional outcomes.¹⁴A recent systematic review showed convincing evidence of an association between atrial fibrillation and dementia in patients with a history of stroke, but it concluded that there was considerable uncertainty of a link between atrial fibrillation and dementia in patients with no history of stroke.¹⁵ Large prospective cohort studies are required to determine a true association between atrial fibrillation and cognitive outcomes.In this study, we sought to determine the prospective association between atrial fibrillation and cognitive decline, loss of independence in activities of daily living and admission to long-term care facilities, using data from a large group of patients included in the ONTARGET and TRANSCEND trials.^16,17     

Rates of hemorrhage during warfarin therapy for atrial fibrillation

Background:

Although warfarin has been extensively studied in clinical trials, little is known about rates of hemorrhage attributable to its use in routine clinical practice. Our objective was to examine incident hemorrhagic events in a large population-based cohort of patients with atrial fibrillation who were starting treatment with warfarin.

Methods:

We conducted a population-based cohort study involving residents of Ontario (age ≥ 66 yr) with atrial fibrillation who started taking warfarin between Apr. 1, 1997, and Mar. 31, 2008. We defined a major hemorrhage as any visit to hospital for hemorrage. We determined crude rates of hemorrhage during warfarin treatment, overall and stratified by CHADS₂ score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 yr, diabetes mellitus and prior stroke, transient ischemic attack or thromboembolism).

Results:

We included 125 195 patients with atrial fibrillation who started treatment with warfarin during the study period. Overall, the rate of hemorrhage was 3.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.8%–3.9%) per person-year. The risk of major hemorrhage was highest during the first 30 days of treatment. During this period, rates of hemorrhage were 11.8% (95% CI 11.1%–12.5%) per person-year in all patients and 16.7% (95% CI 14.3%–19.4%) per person-year among patients with a CHADS₂ scores of 4 or greater. Over the 5-year follow-up, 10 840 patients (8.7%) visited the hospital for hemorrhage; of these patients, 1963 (18.1%) died in hospital or within 7 days of being discharged.

Interpretation:

In this large cohort of older patients with atrial fibrillation, we found that rates of hemorrhage are highest within the first 30 days of warfarin therapy. These rates are considerably higher than the rates of 1%–3% reported in randomized controlled trials of warfarin therapy. Our study provides timely estimates of warfarin-related adverse events that may be useful to clinicians, patients and policy-makers as new options for treatment become available.Atrial fibrillation is a major risk factor for stroke and systemic embolism, and strong evidence supports the use of the anticoagulant warfarin to reduce this risk.^1–3 However, warfarin has a narrow therapeutic range and requires regular monitoring of the international normalized ratio to optimize its effectiveness and minimize the risk of hemorrhage.^4,5 Although rates of major hemorrhage reported in trials of warfarin therapy typically range between 1% and 3% per person-year,^6–11 observational studies suggest that rates may be considerably higher when warfarin is prescribed outside of a clinical trial setting,^12–15 approaching 7% per person-year in some studies.^13–15 The different safety profiles derived from clinical trials and observational data may reflect the careful selection of patients, precise definitions of bleeding and close monitoring in the trial setting. Furthermore, although a few observational studies suggest that hemorrhage rates are higher than generally appreciated, these studies involve small numbers of patients who received care in specialized settings.^14–16 Consequently, the generalizability of their results to general practice may be limited.More information regarding hemorrhage rates during warfarin therapy is particularly important in light of the recent introduction of new oral anticoagulant agents such as dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban, which may be associated with different outcome profiles.^17–19 There are currently no large studies offering real-world, population-based estimates of hemorrhage rates among patients taking warfarin, which are needed for future comparisons with new anticoagulant agents once they are widely used in routine clinical practice.²⁰We sought to describe the risk of incident hemorrhage in a large population-based cohort of patients with atrial fibrillation who had recently started warfarin therapy.     

Secular trends in acute dialysis after elective major surgery �� 1995 to 2009

Background:

Acute kidney injury is a serious complication of elective major surgery. Acute dialysis is used to support life in the most severe cases. We examined whether rates and outcomes of acute dialysis after elective major surgery have changed over time.

Methods:

We used data from Ontario’s universal health care databases to study all consecutive patients who had elective major surgery at 118 hospitals between 1995 and 2009. Our primary outcomes were acute dialysis within 14 days of surgery, death within 90 days of surgery and chronic dialysis for patients who did not recover kidney function.

Results:

A total of 552 672 patients underwent elective major surgery during the study period, 2231 of whom received acute dialysis. The incidence of acute dialysis increased steadily from 0.2% in 1995 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.15–0.2) to 0.6% in 2009 (95% CI 0.6–0.7). This increase was primarily in cardiac and vascular surgeries. Among patients who received acute dialysis, 937 died within 90 days of surgery (42.0%, 95% CI 40.0–44.1), with no change in 90-day survival over time. Among the 1294 patients who received acute dialysis and survived beyond 90 days, 352 required chronic dialysis (27.2%, 95% CI 24.8–29.7), with no change over time.

Interpretation:

The use of acute dialysis after cardiac and vascular surgery has increased substantially since 1995. Studies focusing on interventions to better prevent and treat perioperative acute kidney injury are needed.More than 230 million elective major surgeries are done annually worldwide.¹ Acute kidney injury is a serious complication of major surgery. It represents a sudden loss of kidney function that affects morbidity, mortality and health care costs.² Dialysis is used for the most severe forms of acute kidney injury. In the nonsurgical setting, the incidence of acute dialysis has steadily increased over the last 15 years, and patients are now more likely to survive to discharge from hospital.^3–5 Similarly, in the surgical setting, the incidence of acute dialysis appears to be increasing over time,^6–10 with declining inhospital mortality.^8,10,11Although previous studies have improved our understanding of the epidemiology of acute dialysis in the surgical setting, several questions remain. Many previous studies were conducted at a single centre, thereby limiting their generalizability.^6,12–14 Most multicentre studies were conducted in the nonsurgical setting and used diagnostic codes for acute kidney injury not requiring dialysis; however, these codes can be inaccurate.^15,16 In contrast, a procedure such as dialysis is easily determined. The incidence of acute dialysis after elective surgery is of particular interest given the need for surgical consent, the severe nature of the event and the potential for mitigation. The need for chronic dialysis among patients who do not recover renal function after surgery has been poorly studied, yet this condition has a major affect on patient survival and quality of life.¹⁷ For these reasons, we studied secular trends in acute dialysis after elective major surgery, focusing on incidence, 90-day mortality and need for chronic dialysis.     

Effects of remote ischemic preconditioning in high-risk patients undergoing cardiac surgery (Remote IMPACT): a randomized controlled trial

Background:Remote ischemic preconditioning is a simple therapy that may reduce cardiac and kidney injury. We undertook a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effect of this therapy on markers of heart and kidney injury after cardiac surgery.Methods:Patients at high risk of death within 30 days after cardiac surgery were randomly assigned to undergo remote ischemic preconditioning or a sham procedure after induction of anesthesia. The preconditioning therapy was three 5-minute cycles of thigh ischemia, with 5 minutes of reperfusion between cycles. The sham procedure was identical except that ischemia was not induced. The primary outcome was peak creatine kinase–myocardial band (CK-MB) within 24 hours after surgery (expressed as multiples of the upper limit of normal, with log transformation). The secondary outcome was change in creatinine level within 4 days after surgery (expressed as log-transformed micromoles per litre). Patient-important outcomes were assessed up to 6 months after randomization.Results:We randomly assigned 128 patients to remote ischemic preconditioning and 130 to the sham therapy. There were no significant differences in postoperative CK-MB (absolute mean difference 0.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] −0.07 to 0.36) or creatinine (absolute mean difference 0.06, 95% CI −0.10 to 0.23). Other outcomes did not differ significantly for remote ischemic preconditioning relative to the sham therapy: for myocardial infarction, relative risk (RR) 1.35 (95% CI 0.85 to 2.17); for acute kidney injury, RR 1.10 (95% CI 0.68 to 1.78); for stroke, RR 1.02 (95% CI 0.34 to 3.07); and for death, RR 1.47 (95% CI 0.65 to 3.31).Interpretation:Remote ischemic precnditioning did not reduce myocardial or kidney injury during cardiac surgery. This type of therapy is unlikely to substantially improve patient-important outcomes in cardiac surgery. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, no. {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01071265","term_id":"NCT01071265"}}NCT01071265.Each year, 2 million patients worldwide undergo cardiac surgery. For more than 25% of these patients, the surgery is complicated by myocardial infarction (MI) and/or acute kidney injury, both of which are strongly associated with morbidity and mortality.^1–3 Preventing MI and acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery would improve survival.An important cause of MI and acute kidney injury in patients undergoing cardiac surgery is ischemia–reperfusion injury.^4,5 This type of injury begins as ischemia, which is then exacerbated by a systemic inflammatory response upon restoration of organ perfusion.⁶ Remote ischemic preconditioning may mitigate ischemia–reperfusion damage. It is accomplished by inducing, before surgery, brief episodes of ischemia in a limb, which lead to widespread activation of endogenous cellular systems that may protect organs from subsequent severe ischemia and reperfusion.^7–9Small randomized controlled trials evaluating the efficacy of remote ischemic preconditioning have had mixed results.^10–17 Interpretation of their data is difficult because of small sample sizes and heterogeneity in the preconditioning procedures and patient populations (e.g., few trials have evaluated patients at high risk of organ injury and postoperative death). Whether remote ischemic preconditioning effectively mitigates ischemia–reperfusion injury therefore remains uncertain. We undertook the Remote Ischemic Preconditioning in Cardiac Surgery Trial (Remote IMPACT) to determine whether this procedure reduces myocardial and kidney injury. We proposed that a large trial to determine the effect on clinically important outcomes would be worthwhile only if a substantial effect on myocardial or kidney injury, or both, were observed in the current study.     

Ruling out coronary artery disease in primary care: development and validation of a simple prediction rule

Background

Chest pain can be caused by various conditions, with life-threatening cardiac disease being of greatest concern. Prediction scores to rule out coronary artery disease have been developed for use in emergency settings. We developed and validated a simple prediction rule for use in primary care.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional diagnostic study in 74 primary care practices in Germany. Primary care physicians recruited all consecutive patients who presented with chest pain (n = 1249) and recorded symptoms and findings for each patient (derivation cohort). An independent expert panel reviewed follow-up data obtained at six weeks and six months on symptoms, investigations, hospital admissions and medications to determine the presence or absence of coronary artery disease. Adjusted odds ratios of relevant variables were used to develop a prediction rule. We calculated measures of diagnostic accuracy for different cut-off values for the prediction scores using data derived from another prospective primary care study (validation cohort).

Results

The prediction rule contained five determinants (age/sex, known vascular disease, patient assumes pain is of cardiac origin, pain is worse during exercise, and pain is not reproducible by palpation), with the score ranging from 0 to 5 points. The area under the curve (receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83–0.91) for the derivation cohort and 0.90 (95% CI 0.87–0.93) for the validation cohort. The best overall discrimination was with a cut-off value of 3 (positive result 3–5 points; negative result ≤ 2 points), which had a sensitivity of 87.1% (95% CI 79.9%–94.2%) and a specificity of 80.8% (77.6%–83.9%).

Interpretation

The prediction rule for coronary artery disease in primary care proved to be robust in the validation cohort. It can help to rule out coronary artery disease in patients presenting with chest pain in primary care.Chest pain is common. Studies have shown a lifetime prevalence of 20% to 40% in the general population.¹ Its prevalence in primary care ranges from 0.7% to 2.7% depending on inclusion criteria and country,^2–4 with coronary artery disease being the underlying cause in about 12% of primary care patients.^1,5 General practitioners are challenged to identify serious cardiac disease reliably and also protect patients from unnecessary investigations and hospital admissions. Because electrocardiography and the cardiac troponin test are of limited value in primary care,^6,7 history taking and physical examination remain the main diagnostic tools.Most published studies on the diagnostic accuracy of signs and symptoms for acute coronary events have been conducted in high-prevalence settings such as hospital emergency departments.^8–10 Predictive scores have also been developed for use in emergency departments, mainly for the diagnosis of acute coronary syndromes.^11–13 To what degree these apply in primary care is unknown.^14–16A clinical prediction score to rule out coronary artery disease in general practice has been developed.¹⁷ However, it did not perform well when validated externally. The aim of our study was to develop a simple, valid and usable prediction score based on signs and symptoms to help primary care physicians rule out coronary artery disease in patients presenting with chest pain.     

Left atrial size and risk for all-cause mortality and ischemic stroke

Background:

Limited data are available on the relation between left atrial size and outcome among patients referred for clinically indicated echocardiograms. Our aim was to assess the association of left atrial size with all-cause mortality and ischemic stroke in a large cohort of patients referred for echocardiography.

Methods:

Left atrial diameter was measured in 52 639 patients aged 18 years or older (mean age 61.8 [standard deviation (SD) 16.3] years; 52.9% men) who underwent a first transthoracic echocardiogram for clinical reasons at our institution between April 1990 and March 2008. The outcomes were all-cause mortality and nonfatal ischemic stroke.

Results:

Based on the criteria of the American Society of Echocardiography, 50.4% of the patients had no left atrial enlargement, whereas 24.5% had mild, 13.3% had moderate and 11.7% had severe left atrial enlargement. Over a mean follow-up period of 5.5 (SD 4.1) years, 12 527 patients died, and 2314 patients had a nonfatal ischemic stroke. Cumulative 10-year survival was 73.7% among patients with normal left atrial size, 62.5% among those with mild enlargement, 54.8% among those with moderate enlargement and 45% among those with severe enlargement (p < 0.001). After adjustment in multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis, left atrial diameter remained a predictor of all-cause mortality in both sexes (hazard ratio [HR] per 1-cm increment in left atrial size 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12–1.22, p < 0.001 in women, and HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.05–1.13, p < 0.001 in men) and of ischemic stroke in women (HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.14–1.37, p < 0.001).

Interpretation:

Left atrial diameter has a graded and independent association with all-cause mortality in both sexes and with ischemic stroke in women.The left atrium plays a major role in cardiac physiology by collecting blood during systole and modulating left ventricular filling during diastole.¹ Left ventricular diastolic dysfunction or mitral valve disease may lead to left atrial pressure or volume overload which, if chronically maintained, may result in left atrial remodeling and enlargement.² As a marker of left ventricular diastolic dysfunction³ or increased filling volumes, left atrial size may provide important prognostic information. In this regard, left atrial enlargement has been related to higher risk of atrial fibrillation^4–7 and cardiovascular events.^8–13 Our aim was to assess the association of left atrial size with all-cause mortality and ischemic stroke in a large cohort of patients referred for echocardiography.     

Effect of nasal balloon autoinflation in children with otitis media with effusion in primary care: an open randomized controlled trial

Background:Otitis media with effusion is a common problem that lacks an evidence-based nonsurgical treatment option. We assessed the clinical effectiveness of treatment with a nasal balloon device in a primary care setting.Methods:We conducted an open, pragmatic randomized controlled trial set in 43 family practices in the United Kingdom. Children aged 4–11 years with a recent history of ear symptoms and otitis media with effusion in 1 or both ears, confirmed by tympanometry, were allocated to receive either autoinflation 3 times daily for 1–3 months plus usual care or usual care alone. Clearance of middle-ear fluid at 1 and 3 months was assessed by experts masked to allocation.Results:Of 320 children enrolled, those receiving autoinflation were more likely than controls to have normal tympanograms at 1 month (47.3% [62/131] v. 35.6% [47/132]; adjusted relative risk [RR] 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99 to 1.88) and at 3 months (49.6% [62/125] v. 38.3% [46/120]; adjusted RR 1.37, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.83; number needed to treat = 9). Autoinflation produced greater improvements in ear-related quality of life (adjusted between-group difference in change from baseline in OMQ-14 [an ear-related measure of quality of life] score −0.42, 95% CI −0.63 to −0.22). Compliance was 89% at 1 month and 80% at 3 months. Adverse events were mild, infrequent and comparable between groups.Interpretation:Autoinflation in children aged 4–11 years with otitis media with effusion is feasible in primary care and effective both in clearing effusions and improving symptoms and ear-related child and parent quality of life. Trial registration: ISRCTN, No. 55208702.Otitis media with effusion, also known as glue ear, is an accumulation of fluid in the middle ear, without symptoms or signs of an acute ear infection. It is often associated with viral infection.^1–3 The prevalence rises to 46% in children aged 4–5 years,⁴ when hearing difficulty, other ear-related symptoms and broader developmental concerns often bring the condition to medical attention.^3,5,6 Middle-ear fluid is associated with conductive hearing losses of about 15–45 dB HL.⁷ Resolution is clinically unpredictable,^8–10 with about a third of cases showing recurrence.¹¹ In the United Kingdom, about 200 000 children with the condition are seen annually in primary care.^12,13 Research suggests some children seen in primary care are as badly affected as those seen in hospital.^7,9,14,15 In the United States, there were 2.2 million diagnosed episodes in 2004, costing an estimated $4.0 billion.¹⁶ Rates of ventilation tube surgery show variability between countries,^17–19 with a declining trend in the UK.²⁰Initial clinical management consists of reasonable temporizing or delay before considering surgery.¹³ Unfortunately, all available medical treatments for otitis media with effusion such as antibiotics, antihistamines, decongestants and intranasal steroids are ineffective and have unwanted effects, and therefore cannot be recommended.^21–23 Not only are antibiotics ineffective, but resistance to them poses a major threat to public health.^24,25 Although surgery is effective for a carefully selected minority,^13,26,27 a simple low-cost, nonsurgical treatment option could benefit a much larger group of symptomatic children, with the purpose of addressing legitimate clinical concerns without incurring excessive delays.Autoinflation using a nasal balloon device is a low-cost intervention with the potential to be used more widely in primary care, but current evidence of its effectiveness is limited to several small hospital-based trials²⁸ that found a higher rate of tympanometric resolution of ear fluid at 1 month.^29–31 Evidence of feasibility and effectiveness of autoinflation to inform wider clinical use is lacking.^13,28 Thus we report here the findings of a large pragmatic trial of the clinical effectiveness of nasal balloon autoinflation in a spectrum of children with clinically confirmed otitis media with effusion identified from primary care.     

Prevalence of and risk factors for persistent postoperative nonanginal pain after cardiac surgery: a 2-year prospective multicentre study

Background:

Persistent postoperative pain continues to be an underrecognized complication. We examined the prevalence of and risk factors for this type of pain after cardiac surgery.

Methods:

We enrolled patients scheduled for coronary artery bypass grafting or valve replacement, or both, from Feb. 8, 2005, to Sept. 1, 2009. Validated measures were used to assess (a) preoperative anxiety and depression, tendency to catastrophize in the face of pain, health-related quality of life and presence of persistent pain; (b) pain intensity and interference in the first postoperative week; and (c) presence and intensity of persistent postoperative pain at 3, 6, 12 and 24 months after surgery. The primary outcome was the presence of persistent postoperative pain during 24 months of follow-up.

Results:

A total of 1247 patients completed the preoperative assessment. Follow-up retention rates at 3 and 24 months were 84% and 78%, respectively. The prevalence of persistent postoperative pain decreased significantly over time, from 40.1% at 3 months to 22.1% at 6 months, 16.5% at 12 months and 9.5% at 24 months; the pain was rated as moderate to severe in 3.6% at 24 months. Acute postoperative pain predicted both the presence and severity of persistent postoperative pain. The more intense the pain during the first week after surgery and the more it interfered with functioning, the more likely the patients were to report persistent postoperative pain. Pre-existing persistent pain and increased preoperative anxiety also predicted the presence of persistent postoperative pain.

Interpretation:

Persistent postoperative pain of nonanginal origin after cardiac surgery affected a substantial proportion of the study population. Future research is needed to determine whether interventions to modify certain risk factors, such as preoperative anxiety and the severity of pain before and immediately after surgery, may help to minimize or prevent persistent postoperative pain.Postoperative pain that persists beyond the normal time for tissue healing (> 3 mo) is increasingly recognized as an important complication after various types of surgery and can have serious consequences on patients’ daily living.^1–3 Cardiac surgeries, such as coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and valve replacement, rank among the most frequently performed interventions worldwide.⁴ They aim to improve survival and quality of life by reducing symptoms, including anginal pain. However, persistent postoperative pain of nonanginal origin has been reported in 7% to 60% of patients following these surgeries.^5–23 Such variability is common in other types of major surgery and is due mainly to differences in the definition of persistent postoperative pain, study design, data collection methods and duration of follow-up.^1–3,24Few prospective cohort studies have examined the exact time course of persistent postoperative pain after cardiac surgery, and follow-up has always been limited to a year or less.^9,14,25 Factors that put patients at risk of this type of problem are poorly understood.²⁶ Studies have reported inconsistent results regarding the contribution of age, sex, body mass index, preoperative angina, surgical technique, grafting site, postoperative complications or level of opioid consumption after surgery.^{5–7,9,13,14,16–19,21–23,25,27} Only 1 study investigated the role of chronic nonanginal pain before surgery as a contributing factor;²¹ 5 others prospectively assessed the association between persistent postoperative pain and acute pain intensity in the first postoperative week but reported conflicting results.^{13,14,21,22,25} All of the above studies were carried out in a single hospital and included relatively small samples. None of the studies examined the contribution of psychological factors such as levels of anxiety and depression before cardiac surgery, although these factors have been shown to influence acute or persistent postoperative pain in other types of surgery.^1,24,28,29We conducted a prospective multicentre cohort study (the CARD-PAIN study) to determine the prevalence of persistent postoperative pain of nonanginal origin up to 24 months after cardiac surgery and to identify risk factors for the presence and severity of the condition.     

Alcohol consumption and the risk of incident atrial fibrillation among people with cardiovascular disease

Background:

Moderate alcohol consumption may reduce cardiovascular events, but little is known about its effect on atrial fibrillation in people at high risk of such events. We examined the association between moderate alcohol consumption and the risk of incident atrial fibrillation among older adults with existing cardiovascular disease or diabetes.

Methods:

We analyzed data for 30 433 adults who participated in 2 large antihypertensive drug treatment trials and who had no atrial fibrillation at baseline. The patients were 55 years or older and had a history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes with end-organ damage. We classified levels of alcohol consumption according to median cut-off values for low, moderate and high intake based on guidelines used in various countries, and we defined binge drinking as more than 5 drinks a day. The primary outcome measure was incident atrial fibrillation.

Results:

A total of 2093 patients had incident atrial fibrillation. The age- and sex-standardized incidence rate per 1000 person-years was 14.5 among those with a low level of alcohol consumption, 17.3 among those with a moderate level and 20.8 among those with a high level. Compared with participants who had a low level of consumption, those with higher levels had an increased risk of incident atrial fibrillation (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04–1.26, for moderate consumption; 1.32, 95% CI 0.97–1.80, for high consumption). Results were similar after we excluded binge drinkers. Among those with moderate alcohol consumption, binge drinkers had an increased risk of atrial fibrillation compared with non–binge drinkers (adjusted HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.02–1.62).

Interpretation:

Moderate to high alcohol intake was associated with an increased incidence of atrial fibrillation among people aged 55 or older with cardiovascular disease or diabetes. Among moderate drinkers, the effect of binge drinking on the risk of atrial fibrillation was similar to that of habitual heavy drinking.A trial fibrillation is associated with an increased risk of stroke and a related high burden of mortality and morbidity, both in the general public and among patients with existing cardiovascular disease.^1,2 The prevalence of atrial fibrillation increases steadily with age, as do the associated risks, and atrial fibrillation accounts for up to 23.5% of all strokes among elderly people.³Moderate alcohol consumption has been reported to be associated with a reduced risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause death,^1,2 whereas heavy alcohol intake and binge drinking have been associated with an increased risk of stroke,⁴ cardiovascular disease and all-cause death.^5,6 Similarly, heavy drinking and binge drinking are associated with an increased risk of incident atrial fibrillation in the general population.⁷ However, the association between moderate drinking and incident atrial fibrillation is less consistent and not well understood among older people with existing cardiovascular disease.In this analysis, we examined whether drinking moderate quantities of alcohol, and binge drinking, would be associated with an increased risk of incident atrial fibrillation in a large cohort of people with existing cardiovascular disease or diabetes with end-organ damage who had been followed prospectively in 2 long-term antihypertensive drug treatment trials.     

Mediterranean diets and metabolic syndrome status in the PREDIMED randomized trial

Background:

Little evidence exists on the effect of an energy-unrestricted healthy diet on metabolic syndrome. We evaluated the long-term effect of Mediterranean diets ad libitum on the incidence or reversion of metabolic syndrome.

Methods:

We performed a secondary analysis of the PREDIMED trial — a multicentre, randomized trial done between October 2003 and December 2010 that involved men and women (age 55–80 yr) at high risk for cardiovascular disease. Participants were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 dietary interventions: a Mediterranean diet supplemented with extra-virgin olive oil, a Mediterranean diet supplemented with nuts or advice on following a low-fat diet (the control group). The interventions did not include increased physical activity or weight loss as a goal. We analyzed available data from 5801 participants. We determined the effect of diet on incidence and reversion of metabolic syndrome using Cox regression analysis to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results:

Over 4.8 years of follow-up, metabolic syndrome developed in 960 (50.0%) of the 1919 participants who did not have the condition at baseline. The risk of developing metabolic syndrome did not differ between participants assigned to the control diet and those assigned to either of the Mediterranean diets (control v. olive oil HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.94–1.30, p = 0.231; control v. nuts HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.92–1.27, p = 0.3). Reversion occurred in 958 (28.2%) of the 3392 participants who had metabolic syndrome at baseline. Compared with the control group, participants on either Mediterranean diet were more likely to undergo reversion (control v. olive oil HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.15–1.58, p < 0.001; control v. nuts HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.08–1.51, p < 0.001). Participants in the group receiving olive oil supplementation showed significant decreases in both central obesity and high fasting glucose (p = 0.02); participants in the group supplemented with nuts showed a significant decrease in central obesity.

Interpretation:

A Mediterranean diet supplemented with either extra virgin olive oil or nuts is not associated with the onset of metabolic syndrome, but such diets are more likely to cause reversion of the condition. An energy-unrestricted Mediterranean diet may be useful in reducing the risks of central obesity and hyperglycemia in people at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, no. ISRCTN35739639.Metabolic syndrome is a cluster of 3 or more related cardiometabolic risk factors: central obesity (determined by waist circumference), hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia, low plasma high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels and hyperglycemia. Having the syndrome increases a person’s risk for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.^1,2 In addition, the condition is associated with increased morbidity and all-cause mortality.^1,3–5 The worldwide prevalence of metabolic syndrome in adults approaches 25%^6–8 and increases with age,⁷ especially among women,^8,9 making it an important public health issue.Several studies have shown that lifestyle modifications,¹⁰ such as increased physical activity,¹¹ adherence to a healthy diet^12,13 or weight loss,^14–16 are associated with reversion of the metabolic syndrome and its components. However, little information exists as to whether changes in the overall dietary pattern without weight loss might also be effective in preventing and managing the condition.The Mediterranean diet is recognized as one of the healthiest dietary patterns. It has shown benefits in patients with cardiovascular disease^17,18 and in the prevention and treatment of related conditions, such as diabetes,^19–21 hypertension^22,23 and metabolic syndrome.²⁴Several cross-sectional^25–29 and prospective^30–32 epidemiologic studies have suggested an inverse association between adherence to the Mediterranean diet and the prevalence or incidence of metabolic syndrome. Evidence from clinical trials has shown that an energy-restricted Mediterranean diet³³ or adopting a Mediterranean diet after weight loss³⁴ has a beneficial effect on metabolic syndrome. However, these studies did not determine whether the effect could be attributed to the weight loss or to the diets themselves.Seminal data from the PREDIMED (PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea) study suggested that adherence to a Mediterranean diet supplemented with nuts reversed metabolic syndrome more so than advice to follow a low-fat diet.³⁵ However, the report was based on data from only 1224 participants followed for 1 year. We have analyzed the data from the final PREDIMED cohort after a median follow-up of 4.8 years to determine the long-term effects of a Mediterranean diet on metabolic syndrome.     

Utility of prior screening for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in predicting resistance of S. aureus infections

Background:

Screening for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is intended to reduce nosocomial spread by identifying patients colonized by MRSA. Given the widespread use of this screening, we evaluated its potential clinical utility in predicting the resistance of clinical isolates of S. aureus.

Methods:

We conducted a 2-year retrospective cohort study that included patients with documented clinical infection with S. aureus and prior screening for MRSA. We determined test characteristics, including sensitivity and specificity, of screening for predicting the resistance of subsequent S. aureus isolates.

Results:

Of 510 patients included in the study, 53 (10%) had positive results from MRSA screening, and 79 (15%) of infecting isolates were resistant to methicillin. Screening for MRSA predicted methicillin resistance of the infecting isolate with 99% (95% confidence interval [CI] 98%–100%) specificity and 63% (95% CI 52%–74%) sensitivity. When screening swabs were obtained within 48 hours before isolate collection, sensitivity increased to 91% (95% CI 71%–99%) and specificity was 100% (95% CI 97%–100%), yielding a negative likelihood ratio of 0.09 (95% CI 0.01–0.3) and a negative predictive value of 98% (95% CI 95%–100%). The time between swab and isolate collection was a significant predictor of concordance of methicillin resistance in swabs and isolates (odds ratio 6.6, 95% CI 1.6–28.2).

Interpretation:

A positive result from MRSA screening predicted methicillin resistance in a culture-positive clinical infection with S. aureus. Negative results on MRSA screening were most useful for excluding methicillin resistance of a subsequent infection with S. aureus when the screening swab was obtained within 48 hours before collection of the clinical isolate.Antimicrobial resistance is a global problem. The prevalence of resistant bacteria, including methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), has reached high levels in many countries.^1–3 Methicillin resistance in S. aureus is associated with excess mortality, hospital stays and health care costs,^3,4 possibly owing to increased virulence or less effective treatments for MRSA compared with methicillin-sensitive S. aureus (MSSA).⁵The initial selection of appropriate empirical antibiotic treatment affects mortality, morbidity and potential health care expenditures.^6–8 The optimal choice of antibiotics in S. aureus infections is important for 3 major reasons: β-lactam antibiotics have shown improved efficacy over vancomycin and are the ideal treatment for susceptible strains of S. aureus;⁶ β-lactam antibiotics are ineffective against MRSA, and so vancomycin or other newer agents must be used empirically when MRSA is suspected; and unnecessary use of broad-spectrum antibiotics (e.g., vancomycin) can lead to the development of further antimicrobial resistance.⁹ It is therefore necessary to make informed decisions regarding selection of empirical antibiotics.^10–13 Consideration of a patient’s previous colonization status is important, because colonization predates most hospital and community-acquired infections.^10,14Universal or targeted surveillance for MRSA has been implemented widely as a means of limiting transmission of this antibiotic-resistant pathogen.^15,16 Although results of MRSA screening are not intended to guide empirical treatment, they may offer an additional benefit among patients in whom clinical infection with S. aureus develops.Studies that examined the effects of MRSA carriage on the subsequent likelihood of infection allude to the potential diagnostic benefit of prior screening for MRSA.^17,18 Colonization by MRSA at the time of hospital admission is associated with a 13-fold increased risk of subsequent MRSA infection.^17,18 Moreover, studies that examined nasal carriage of S. aureus after documented S. aureus bacteremia have shown remarkable concordance between the genotypes of paired colonizing and invasive strains (82%–94%).^19,20 The purpose of our study was to identify the usefulness of prior screening for MRSA for predicting methicillin resistance in culture-positive S. aureus infections.     

Association between exposure to suicide and suicidality outcomes in youth

Background:

Ecological studies support the hypothesis that suicide may be “contagious” (i.e., exposure to suicide may increase the risk of suicide and related outcomes). However, this association has not been adequately assessed in prospective studies. We sought to determine the association between exposure to suicide and suicidality outcomes in Canadian youth.

Methods:

We used baseline information from the Canadian National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth between 1998/99 and 2006/07 with follow-up assessments 2 years later. We included all respondents aged 12–17 years in cycles 3–7 with reported measures of exposure to suicide.

Results:

We included 8766 youth aged 12–13 years, 7802 aged 14–15 years and 5496 aged 16–17 years. Exposure to a schoolmate’s suicide was associated with ideation at baseline among respondents aged 12–13 years (odds ratio [OR] 5.06, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.04–8.40), 14–15 years (OR 2.93, 95% CI 2.02–4.24) and 16–17 years (OR 2.23, 95% CI 1.43–3.48). Such exposure was associated with attempts among respondents aged 12–13 years (OR 4.57, 95% CI 2.39–8.71), 14–15 years (OR 3.99, 95% CI 2.46–6.45) and 16–17 years (OR 3.22, 95% CI 1.62–6.41). Personally knowing someone who died by suicide was associated with suicidality outcomes for all age groups. We also assessed 2-year outcomes among respondents aged 12–15 years: a schoolmate’s suicide predicted suicide attempts among participants aged 12–13 years (OR 3.07, 95% CI 1.05–8.96) and 14–15 years (OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.47–5.04). Among those who reported a schoolmate’s suicide, personally knowing the decedent did not alter the risk of suicidality.

Interpretation:

We found that exposure to suicide predicts suicide ideation and attempts. Our results support school-wide interventions over current targeted interventions, particularly over strategies that target interventions toward children closest to the decedent.Suicidal thoughts and behaviours are prevalent^1–3 and severe^4–7 among adolescents. One hypothesized cause of suicidality is “suicide contagion” (i.e., exposure to suicide or related behaviours influences others to contemplate, attempt or die by suicide).⁸ Ecological studies support this theory: suicide and suspected suicide rates increase following a highly publicized suicide.^9–11 However, such studies are prone to ecological fallacy and do not allow for detailed understanding of who may be most vulnerable.Adolescents may be particularly susceptible to this contagion effect. More than 13% of adolescent suicides are potentially explained by clustering;^12–14 clustering may explain an even larger proportion of suicide attempts.^15,16 Many local,^17,18 national^8,19 and international²⁰ institutions recommend school- or community-level postvention strategies in the aftermath of a suicide to help prevent further suicides and suicidality. These postvention strategies typically focus on a short interval following the death (e.g., months) with services targeted toward the most at-risk individuals (e.g., those with depression).¹⁹In this study, we assessed the association between exposure to suicide and suicidal thoughts and attempts among youth, using both cross-sectional and prospective (2-yr follow-up) analyses in a population-based cohort of Canadian youth.     

Prospective validation of a 1-hour algorithm to rule-out and rule-in acute myocardial infarction using a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T assay

Background:We aimed to prospectively validate a novel 1-hour algorithm using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T measurement for early rule-out and rule-in of acute myocardial infarction (MI).Methods:In a multicentre study, we enrolled 1320 patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected acute MI. The high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T 1-hour algorithm, incorporating baseline values as well as absolute changes within the first hour, was validated against the final diagnosis. The final diagnosis was then adjudicated by 2 independent cardiologists using all available information, including coronary angiography, echocardiography, follow-up data and serial measurements of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T levels.Results:Acute MI was the final diagnosis in 17.3% of patients. With application of the high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T 1-hour algorithm, 786 (59.5%) patients were classified as “rule-out,” 216 (16.4%) were classified as “rule-in” and 318 (24.1%) were classified to the “observational zone.” The sensitivity and the negative predictive value for acute MI in the rule-out zone were 99.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 97.6%–99.9%) and 99.9% (95% CI 99.3%–100%), respectively. The specificity and the positive predictive value for acute MI in the rule-in zone were 95.7% (95% CI 94.3%–96.8%) and 78.2% (95% CI 72.1%–83.6%), respectively. The 1-hour algorithm provided higher negative and positive predictive values than the standard interpretation of highsensitivity cardiac troponin T using a single cut-off level (both p < 0.05). Cumulative 30-day mortality was 0.0%, 1.6% and 1.9% in patients classified in the rule-out, observational and rule-in groups, respectively (p = 0.001).Interpretation:This rapid strategy incorporating high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T baseline values and absolute changes within the first hour substantially accelerated the management of suspected acute MI by allowing safe rule-out as well as accurate rule-in of acute MI in 3 out of 4 patients. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00470587","term_id":"NCT00470587"}}NCT00470587Acute myocardial infarction (MI) is a major cause of death and disability worldwide. As highly effective treatments are available, early and accurate detection of acute MI is crucial.^1–5 Clinical assessment, 12-lead electrocardiography (ECG) and measurement of cardiac troponin levels form the pillars for the early diagnosis of acute MI in the emergency department. Major advances have recently been achieved by the development of more sensitive cardiac troponin assays.^6–15 High-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays, which allow measurement of even low concentrations of cardiac troponin with high precision, have been shown to largely overcome the sensitivity deficit of conventional cardiac troponin assays within the first hours of presentation in the diagnosis of acute MI.^6–15 These studies have consistently shown that the classic diagnostic interpretation of cardiac troponin as a dichotomous variable (troponin-negative and troponin-positive) no longer seems appropriate, because the positive predictive value for acute MI of being troponin-positive was only about 50%.^6–15 The best way to interpret and clinically use high-sensitivity cardiac troponin levels in the early diagnosis of acute MI is still debated.^3,5,7In a pilot study, a novel high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T 1-hour algorithm was shown to allow accurate rule-out and rule-in of acute MI within 1 hour in up to 75% of patients.¹¹ This algorithm is based on 2 concepts. First, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T is interpreted as a quantitative variable where the proportion of patients who have acute MI increases with increasing concentrations of cardiac troponin T.^6–15 Second, early absolute changes in the concentrations within 1 hour provide incremental diagnostic information when added to baseline levels, with the combination acting as a reliable surrogate for late concentrations at 3 or 6 hours.^6–15 However, many experts remained skeptical regarding the safety of the high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T 1-hour algorithm and its wider applicability.¹⁶ Accordingly, this novel diagnostic concept has not been adopted clinically to date. Because the clinical application of this algorithm would represent a profound change in clinical practice, prospective validation in a large cohort is mandatory before it can be considered for routine clinical use. The aim of this multicentre study was to prospectively validate the high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T 1-hour algorithm in a large independent cohort.     

Association of macrosomia with perinatal and postneonatal mortality among First Nations people in Quebec

Background

High prevalence of infant macrosomia (up to 36%, the highest in the world) has been reported in some First Nations communities in the Canadian province of Quebec and the eastern area of the province of Ontario. We aimed to assess whether infant macrosomia was associated with elevated risks of perinatal and postneonatal mortality among First Nations people in Quebec.

Methods

We calculated risk ratios (RRs) of perinatal and postneonatal mortality by birthweight for gestational age, comparing births to First Nations women (n = 5193) versus women whose mother tongue is French (n = 653 424, the majority reference group) in Quebec 1991–2000.

Results

The prevalence of infant macrosomia (birthweight for gestational age > 90th percentile) was 27.5% among births to First Nations women, which was 3.3 times (confidence interval [CI] 3.2–3.5) higher than the prevalence (8.3%) among births to women whose mother tongue is French. Risk ratios for perinatal mortality among births to First Nations women were 1.8 (95% CI 1.3–2.5) for births with weight appropriate for gestational age, 4.1 (95% CI 2.4–7.0) for small-for-gestational-age (< 10th percentile) births and < 1 (not significant) for macrosomic births compared to births among women whose mother tongue is French. The RRs for postneonatal mortality were 4.3 (95% CI 2.7–6.7) for infants with appropriate-for-gestational-age birthweight and 8.3 (95% CI 4.0–17.0) for infants with macrosomia.

Interpretation

Macrosomia was associated with a generally protective effect against perinatal death, but substantially greater risks of postneonatal death among births to First Nations women in Quebec versus women whose mother tongue is French.A trend toward higher birthweights has emerged in recent decades.^1–3 Reflected in this trend is a rise in the prevalence of infant macrosomia, commonly defined as either a birthweight greater than 4000 g or a birthweight for gestational age greater than the 90th percentile relative to a fetal growth standard.^4–8 Maternal obesity, impaired glucose tolerance and gestational diabetes mellitus are important risk factors for infant macrosomia^9,10 and are known to afflict a much higher proportion of people in Aboriginal populations than in the general population.^11–14 This is true especially for Aboriginal populations in which a traditional lifestyle has changed to a less physically active, modern lifestyle in recent decades. A high prevalence of infant macrosomia (up to 36%, which, to the best of our knowledge, is the highest in the world) has been reported in some First Nations communities of Quebec and eastern Ontario in Canada.^15–17 However, little is known about the implications of this high prevalence for perinatal and infant health of First Nations people in these regions. We examined whether infant macrosomia was associated with increased risk for perinatal and postneonatal death among First Nations infants in Quebec.     

Effect of ambient air pollution on the incidence of appendicitis

Background

The pathogenesis of appendicitis is unclear. We evaluated whether exposure to air pollution was associated with an increased incidence of appendicitis.

Methods

We identified 5191 adults who had been admitted to hospital with appendicitis between Apr. 1, 1999, and Dec. 31, 2006. The air pollutants studied were ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and suspended particulate matter of less than 10 μ and less than 2.5 μ in diameter. We estimated the odds of appendicitis relative to short-term increases in concentrations of selected pollutants, alone and in combination, after controlling for temperature and relative humidity as well as the effects of age, sex and season.

Results

An increase in the interquartile range of the 5-day average of ozone was associated with appendicitis (odds ratio [OR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.25). In summer (July–August), the effects were most pronounced for ozone (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.10–1.57), sulfur dioxide (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.03–1.63), nitrogen dioxide (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.20–2.58), carbon monoxide (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.01–1.80) and particulate matter less than 10 μ in diameter (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.05–1.38). We observed a significant effect of the air pollutants in the summer months among men but not among women (e.g., OR for increase in the 5-day average of nitrogen dioxide 2.05, 95% CI 1.21–3.47, among men and 1.48, 95% CI 0.85–2.59, among women). The double-pollutant model of exposure to ozone and nitrogen dioxide in the summer months was associated with attenuation of the effects of ozone (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.01–1.48) and nitrogen dioxide (OR 1.48, 95% CI 0.97–2.24).

Interpretation

Our findings suggest that some cases of appendicitis may be triggered by short-term exposure to air pollution. If these findings are confirmed, measures to improve air quality may help to decrease rates of appendicitis.Appendicitis was introduced into the medical vernacular in 1886.¹ Since then, the prevailing theory of its pathogenesis implicated an obstruction of the appendiceal orifice by a fecalith or lymphoid hyperplasia.² However, this notion does not completely account for variations in incidence observed by age,^3,4 sex,^3,4 ethnic background,^3,4 family history,⁵ temporal–spatial clustering⁶ and seasonality,^3,4 nor does it completely explain the trends in incidence of appendicitis in developed and developing nations.^3,7,8The incidence of appendicitis increased dramatically in industrialized nations in the 19th century and in the early part of the 20th century.¹ Without explanation, it decreased in the middle and latter part of the 20th century.³ The decrease coincided with legislation to improve air quality. For example, after the United States Clean Air Act was passed in 1970,⁹ the incidence of appendicitis decreased by 14.6% from 1970 to 1984.³ Likewise, a 36% drop in incidence was reported in the United Kingdom between 1975 and 1994¹⁰ after legislation was passed in 1956 and 1968 to improve air quality and in the 1970s to control industrial sources of air pollution. Furthermore, appendicitis is less common in developing nations; however, as these countries become more industrialized, the incidence of appendicitis has been increasing.⁷Air pollution is known to be a risk factor for multiple conditions, to exacerbate disease states and to increase all-cause mortality.¹¹ It has a direct effect on pulmonary diseases such as asthma¹¹ and on nonpulmonary diseases including myocardial infarction, stroke and cancer.^11–13 Inflammation induced by exposure to air pollution contributes to some adverse health effects.^14–17 Similar to the effects of air pollution, a proinflammatory response has been associated with appendicitis.^18–20We conducted a case–crossover study involving a population-based cohort of patients admitted to hospital with appendicitis to determine whether short-term increases in concentrations of selected air pollutants were associated with hospital admission because of appendicitis.