The World Health Organisation. Interview with the director general. Interview by Fiona Godlee.

Dr Hiroshi Nakajima was elected director general of WHO in 1988. Born in Japan, he trained as a psychiatrist before joining WHO in 1973. He was WHO''s regional director for the Western Pacific from 1979 to 1988. His term of office has been marked by criticism of his management style and allegations of misuse of WHO''s funds. I spoke to him at WHO''s headquarters in Geneva in July. I have presented the interview in the form of questions and answers. It would be misleading, however, not to make clear that in doing so I have transcribed conversation which was at times extremely difficult to follow. I feel that it is important to emphasise this in the context of an interview with an international leader, one of whose primary tasks must be to communicate his views on health to people across the world. The interviews gave me first hand experience of the difficulties in communication that staff, diplomats, and others, including Japanese leaders, have consistently commented on since Dr Nakajima took office.     

WHO in crisis.

Media attention has been focused on the leadership of the World Health Organisation, rather than on the real factors that limit WHO''s effectiveness. These factors relate to the organisation''s structure and also to its current priorities, methods, and management. This article examines the objectives and strategy of WHO in view of financial constraints and donor countries'' demands; WHO''s stated goal of integrated primary health care; staff morale; and the growing dislocation between the regions and headquarters.     

The World Health Organisation. WHO in Europe: does it have a role?

WHO is under pressure from all sides to justify its existence. Donors want to know what they are getting for their money, and health professionals question the relevance of the organisation''s work. The pressure to justify itself is perhaps strongest of all in Europe, where most member countries have fully fledged health infrastructures and high overall levels of health. Now there is the additional threat of encroachment into the field of public health by the European Union. The disintegration of the Soviet bloc has given WHO''s regional office in Europe a new sense of purpose and led to a major shift in resources towards the countries of central and eastern Europe. But WHO''s critics are calling for a different shift in the way its European office works: from its current concentration on broad based policy issues to the nitty-gritty of health care management and delivery.     

WHO fellowships--what do they achieve?

Training health professionals is one of WHO''s major strategies for improving health care in the developing world. The aim, to strengthen a country''s own capacity rather than injecting expertise from outside, is in the best tradition of sustainable development. But how effective is this so called "capacity building in human resources"? Since it accounted for $43m of WHO''s budget in 1992-3 and is considered by WHO to be a major contribution to health in individual countries, it deserves detailed examination.     

WHO at country level--a little impact,no strategy.

The acid test of WHO''s effect on the world''s health is its impact at country level. Unless it has an impact there, all of its declarations, its debates at the World Health Assembly, its conferences, its pamphlets, its political manouvering in Geneva and the regions, all of these come to nothing. Working as it does through national governments, WHO insists that it has no role in directly managing or delivering health care. Judging WHO''s impact in individual countries is therefore difficult--its approaches are largely indirect, and initiatives may take years to bear fruit. But from the meagre resources that WHO makes available at country level it is clear why its country operations are criticised as the weakest link in an already weak chain of influence from its headquarters in Geneva to the people in its member states. Poorly funded, undertrained, and with no clear strategy to follow, its staff at country level stand little chance of making an impact.     

WHO in retreat: is it losing its influence?

WHO says it has three main functions: to set normative standards; to provide technical advice and assistance on medical matters; and to advocate changes in health policy. During its 46 year history the first two functions have been a constant and uncontroversial backbone through which WHO has earned its reputation for scientific excellence. The third function, advocacy, came to the fore with the launch of Health for All in 1977, after which WHO took a key role in influencing international health policy. WHO''s friends and critics alike now say that the organisation is losing its influence and retreating into its technical and biomedical shell. This article maps the changes in WHO''s approach over the past 46 years and considers whether fears about its loss of influence are justified.     

WHO's special programmes: undermining from above.

Despite the World Health Organisation''s spoken commitment to developing integrated primary health care, its most visible and successful activities are not integrated within countries; they are its disease specific intervention programmes, such as the Global Programme on AIDS and the programmes for the control of diarrhoeal and acute respiratory diseases. The 10 or so special programmes, all but one of which (the onchocerciasis control programme) are based in Geneva, have found increasing favour among donors, but critics say that they undermine WHO''s attempts to integrate its activities at country level and discourage countries from developing their own capacity.     

Health,humanitarian relief,and survival in former Yugoslavia.

Since the World Health Organisation''s effort in former Yugoslavia started in July 1992 it has been concerned with the public health policies of survival. It has provided advice to the United Nations High Commission for refugees, helped the voluntary agencies coordinate their work, assessed health needs, and provided practical help in the field to all parties to the conflict. Three features of the Bosnia war have particularly deplorable effects on health: ethnic cleansing, deliberate attacks on hospitals, and systematic rape. The WHO''s response has included initiatives in nutrition, winter survival, and medical supplies. This experience shows that the WHO can have a useful role complementary to that of other agencies in situations where the basic elements for survival of the population are seriously compromised by war.     

Women's health. The childbearing years and after.

Health and development planners have tended to see women primarily in context of their reproductive role. As a result, solutions to women''s health needs have been restricted to expanding and improving maternal and child health systems. There has recently been a major shift in direction, largely because of the influence of the world conference on population and development held in Cairo in 1994. Dr Guiseppe Benagiano, director of the special programme of research, development and research training in human reproduction based at the WHO, says, "We need to remind ourselves constantly that reproductive health is not simply a biomedical issue but one with serious implications for our general health and by extension, for all our efforts in human social and economic development." The 1993 world development report on health identified the lack of a clear strategy for engaging women in health care and suggested that child health services, prenatal care, treatment of sexually transmitted diseases, and family planning services should be provided jointly at convenient times. In an example of this, the Chilean Institute of Reproductive Medicine now offers integrated family planning services at the same time as child health services, and Thailand is experimenting with mobile health clinics to reach women in their homes. As the proportion of elderly women increases, old age is increasingly being seen as a female issue. With the impact of urbanisation and industrialisation, more of these women are living isolated lives, often suffering from chronic debilitating diseases. In his opening statement to the global commission on women''s health in April 1995 which focused on health conditions of women in old age, Dr Hiroshi Nakajima, the WHO''s director general, said: "Our goal should not be solely to extend lives in the physical sense, but to ensure that the added years are worth living."     

The contribution of vaccination to global health: past,present and future

Vaccination has made an enormous contribution to global health. Two major infections, smallpox and rinderpest, have been eradicated. Global coverage of vaccination against many important infectious diseases of childhood has been enhanced dramatically since the creation of WHO''s Expanded Programme of Immunization in 1974 and of the Global Alliance for Vaccination and Immunization in 2000. Polio has almost been eradicated and success in controlling measles makes this infection another potential target for eradication. Despite these successes, approximately 6.6 million children still die each year and about a half of these deaths are caused by infections, including pneumonia and diarrhoea, which could be prevented by vaccination. Enhanced deployment of recently developed pneumococcal conjugate and rotavirus vaccines should, therefore, result in a further decline in childhood mortality. Development of vaccines against more complex infections, such as malaria, tuberculosis and HIV, has been challenging and achievements so far have been modest. Final success against these infections may require combination vaccinations, each component stimulating a different arm of the immune system. In the longer term, vaccines are likely to be used to prevent or modulate the course of some non-infectious diseases. Progress has already been made with therapeutic cancer vaccines and future potential targets include addiction, diabetes, hypertension and Alzheimer''s disease.     

"Don't let others design your future", new CMA president tells physicians. Interview by Nancy Robb.

Dr. Judith Kazimirski of Nova Scotia becomes the CMA''s 126th president during the association''s annual meeting in Sydney, NS, this month. She says her priority for the next year is to help the CMA play a lead role as the debate intensifies about the future of health and health care in Canada. "The time is right for a very public debate about what people want their system to be, what problems they''re having, and how reform is moving ahead," she says, "and physicians have a critical leadership role to play."     

Source monitoring and memory distortion.

Memory distortion reflects failures to identify the sources of mental experience (reality monitoring failures or source misattributions). For example, people sometimes confuse what they inferred or imagined and what actually happened, what they saw and what was suggested to them, one person''s actions and another''s what they heard and what they previously knew, and fiction and fact. Source confusions arise because activated information is incomplete or ambiguous and the evaluative processes responsible for attributing information to sources are imperfect. Both accurate and inaccurate source attributions result from heuristic processes and more reflectively complex processes that evaluate a mental experience for various qualities such as amount and type of perceptual, contextual, affective, semantic and cognitive detail, that retrieve additional supporting or disconfirming evidence, and that evaluate plausibility and consistency given general knowledge, schemes, biases and goals. Experimental and clinical evidence regarding cognitive mechanisms and underlying brain structures of source monitoring are discussed.     

Time's running out as physicians await Y2K fallout.

Canada''s hospitals are slowly coming to grips with the millennium bug, but Anita Elash reports that no one really knows what impact the move into the year 2000 will have on computers and medical devices, either in the hospital or doctor''s office.     

Has the DOTS Strategy Improved Case Finding or Treatment Success? An Empirical Assessment

Background

Nearly fifteen years after the start of WHO''s DOTS strategy, tuberculosis remains a major global health problem. Given the lack of empirical evidence that DOTS reduces tuberculosis burden, considerable debate has arisen about its place in the future of global tuberculosis control efforts. An independent evaluation of DOTS, one of the most widely-implemented and longest-running interventions in global health, is a prerequisite for meaningful improvements to tuberculosis control efforts, including WHO''s new Stop TB Strategy. We investigate the impact of the expansion of the DOTS strategy on tuberculosis case finding and treatment success, using only empirical data.

Methods and Findings

We study the effect of DOTS using time-series cross-sectional methods. We first estimate the impact of DOTS expansion on case detection, using reported case notification data and controlling for other determinants of change in notifications, including HIV prevalence, GDP, and country-specific effects. We then estimate the effect of DOTS expansion on treatment success. DOTS programme variables had no statistically significant impact on case detection in a wide range of models and specifications. DOTS population coverage had a significant effect on overall treatment success rates, such that countries with full DOTS coverage benefit from at least an 18% increase in treatment success (95% CI: 5–31%).

Conclusions

The DOTS technical package improved overall treatment success. By contrast, DOTS expansion had no effect on case detection. This finding is less optimistic than previous analyses. Better epidemiological and programme data would facilitate future monitoring and evaluation efforts.     

General practitioner and long term care of patients with a spinal injury.

A questionnaire was sent to disabled people to ascertain what part their general practitioners played in their long term care. The average consultation rate was 4.40 per patient a year. Overall, it appeared that the patients were most concerned with the general practitioner''s attitude towards them and the general practitioner''s availability.     

Newfoundland pathologist driving force as province finally adopts medical examiner's act.

Newfoundland''s former chief forensic pathologist is pleased that the provincial government has adopted a new medical examiner''s act that he helped develop. He hopes the new act will help clear up confusion about who does what when a body is found in the province.     

Old people's homes: the relatives' view.

On 1 April new arrangements came into force for arranging and funding residential care for elderly people in Britain. From now on those who seem to need full time care will be assessed first by care managers employed by local authority social services departments. This may lead to admission to an old people''s home or a nursing home. Local authorities have been told to consult both users and carers about such decisions. But what about relatives who have not actually been giving care directly? The Relatives Association was set up last year as a voluntary organisation for the relatives and friends of older people living in residential homes. Below, its vice president, Mavis Nicholson, a journalist and broadcaster whose mother died of Alzheimer''s disease in a residential home last year, gives her personal view of being such a relative. And Dorothy White, the association''s founder, explains what the future may hold for elderly residents and their relatives.     

Survey of health visiting in antenatal care.

The range of the health visitor''s work is expanding. To find out what antenatal work health visitors actually carry out and what their attitudes towards such work are we surveyed general practitioners, midwives, and health visitors in three district health authorities. The results indicate that health visitors are qualified and willing to work with women in the antenatal period.     

The Curious Anomaly of Skewed Judgment Distributions and Systematic Error in the Wisdom of Crowds

Judgment distributions are often skewed and we know little about why. This paper explains the phenomenon of skewed judgment distributions by introducing the augmented quincunx (AQ) model of sequential and probabilistic cue categorization by neurons of judges. In the process of developing inferences about true values, when neurons categorize cues better than chance, and when the particular true value is extreme compared to what is typical and anchored upon, then populations of judges form skewed judgment distributions with high probability. Moreover, the collective error made by these people can be inferred from how skewed their judgment distributions are, and in what direction they tilt. This implies not just that judgment distributions are shaped by cues, but that judgment distributions are cues themselves for the wisdom of crowds. The AQ model also predicts that judgment variance correlates positively with collective error, thereby challenging what is commonly believed about how diversity and collective intelligence relate. Data from 3053 judgment surveys about US macroeconomic variables obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the Wall Street Journal provide strong support, and implications are discussed with reference to three central ideas on collective intelligence, these being Galton''s conjecture on the distribution of judgments, Muth''s rational expectations hypothesis, and Page''s diversity prediction theorem.     

The New Health Practitioner — The Past as Prologue

The training and utilization of New Health Practitioners (NHP''s) has moved within a decade from a small tentative beginning in the mid-1960''s to a major health manpower policy issue. Its discussion transcends a number of important and emotionally charged areas including the role of various professions in providing health care services, the renaissance of primary care, the geographic and economic maldistribution of medical services, and the cost of care. It is valuable to highlight what is known, what is professed and what needs to be studied further about this issue.