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Several epidemiological studies have reported associations between increases in summer temperatures and risks of premature mortality. The quantitative implications of predicted future increases in summer temperature, however, have not been extensively characterized. We have quantified these effects for the four main cities in Catalonia, Spain (Barcelona, Tarragona, Lleida, Girona). We first used case-crossover analysis to estimate the association between temperature and mortality for each of these cities for the period 1983 to 2006. These exposure–response (ER) functions were then combined with local measures of current and projected changes in population, mortality and temperature for the years 2025 and 2050. Predicted daily mean temperatures were based on the A1B greenhouse gas emission, “business-as-usual” scenario simulations derived from the ENSEMBLES project. Several different ER functions were examined and significant associations between temperature and mortality were observed for all four cities. For these four cities, the age-specific piecewise linear model predicts 520 (95%CI  340, 720) additional annual deaths attributable to the change in temperature in 2025 relative to the average from the baseline period of 1960–1990. For 2050, the estimate increases to 1,610 deaths per year during the warm season. For Catalonia as a whole, the point estimates for those two years are 720 and 2,330 deaths per year, respectively, or about 2 and 3% of the warm season. In comparing these predicted impacts with current causes of mortality, they clearly represent significant burdens to public health in Catalonia.  相似文献   

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The exposome is defined as “the totality of environmental exposures encountered from birth to death” and was developed to address the need for comprehensive environmental exposure assessment to better understand disease etiology. Due to the complexity of the exposome, significant efforts have been made to develop technologies for longitudinal, internal and external exposure monitoring, and bioinformatics to integrate and analyze datasets generated. Our objectives were to bring together leaders in the field of exposomics, at a recent Symposium on “Lifetime Exposures and Human Health: The Exposome,” held at Yale School of Public Health. Our aim was to highlight the most recent technological advancements for measurement of the exposome, bioinformatics development, current limitations, and future needs in environmental health. In the discussions, an emphasis was placed on moving away from a one-chemical one-health outcome model toward a new paradigm of monitoring the totality of exposures that individuals may experience over their lifetime. This is critical to better understand the underlying biological impact on human health, particularly during windows of susceptibility. Recent advancements in metabolomics and bioinformatics are driving the field forward in biomonitoring and understanding the biological impact, and the technological and logistical challenges involved in the analyses were highlighted. In conclusion, further developments and support are needed for large-scale biomonitoring and management of big data, standardization for exposure and data analyses, bioinformatics tools for co-exposure or mixture analyses, and methods for data sharing.  相似文献   

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In addition to furnishing clothing, food and shelter—the basic necessities of life—plants, in their utilization by man, have also furnished problems of public health in their production of alcohol, narcotics, allergies, poisons and specific human diseases.  相似文献   

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