Variable cultural acquisition costs constrain cumulative cultural evolution

One of the hallmarks of the human species is our capacity for cumulative culture, in which beneficial knowledge and technology is accumulated over successive generations. Yet previous analyses of cumulative cultural change have failed to consider the possibility that as cultural complexity accumulates, it becomes increasingly costly for each new generation to acquire from the previous generation. In principle this may result in an upper limit on the cultural complexity that can be accumulated, at which point accumulated knowledge is so costly and time-consuming to acquire that further innovation is not possible. In this paper I first review existing empirical analyses of the history of science and technology that support the possibility that cultural acquisition costs may constrain cumulative cultural evolution. I then present macroscopic and individual-based models of cumulative cultural evolution that explore the consequences of this assumption of variable cultural acquisition costs, showing that making acquisition costs vary with cultural complexity causes the latter to reach an upper limit above which no further innovation can occur. These models further explore the consequences of different cultural transmission rules (directly biased, indirectly biased and unbiased transmission), population size, and cultural innovations that themselves reduce innovation or acquisition costs.     

Imitation Is Necessary for Cumulative Cultural Evolution in an Unfamiliar,Opaque Task

Imitation, the replication of observed behaviors, has been proposed as the crucial social learning mechanism for the generation of humanlike cultural complexity. To date, the single published experimental microsociety study that tested this hypothesis found no advantage for imitation. In contrast, the current paper reports data in support of the imitation hypothesis. Participants in “microsociety” groups built weight-bearing devices from reed and clay. Each group was assigned to one of four conditions: three social learning conditions and one asocial learning control condition. Groups able to observe other participants building their devices, in contrast to groups that saw only completed devices, show evidence of successive improvement. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that imitation is required for cumulative cultural evolution. This study adds crucial data for understanding why imitation is needed for cultural accumulation, a central defining feature of our species.     

High Selection Pressure Promotes Increase in Cumulative Adaptive Culture

The evolution of cumulative adaptive culture has received widespread interest in recent years, especially the factors promoting its occurrence. Current evolutionary models suggest that an increase in population size may lead to an increase in cultural complexity via a higher rate of cultural transmission and innovation. However, relatively little attention has been paid to the role of natural selection in the evolution of cultural complexity. Here we use an agent-based simulation model to demonstrate that high selection pressure in the form of resource pressure promotes the accumulation of adaptive culture in spite of small population sizes and high innovation costs. We argue that the interaction of demography and selection is important, and that neither can be considered in isolation. We predict that an increase in cultural complexity is most likely to occur under conditions of population pressure relative to resource availability. Our model may help to explain why culture change can occur without major environmental change. We suggest that understanding the interaction between shifting selective pressures and demography is essential for explaining the evolution of cultural complexity.     

Sociality influences cultural complexity

Archaeological and ethnohistorical evidence suggests a link between a population''s size and structure, and the diversity or sophistication of its toolkits or technologies. Addressing these patterns, several evolutionary models predict that both the size and social interconnectedness of populations can contribute to the complexity of its cultural repertoire. Some models also predict that a sudden loss of sociality or of population will result in subsequent losses of useful skills/technologies. Here, we test these predictions with two experiments that permit learners to access either one or five models (teachers). Experiment 1 demonstrates that naive participants who could observe five models, integrate this information and generate increasingly effective skills (using an image editing tool) over 10 laboratory generations, whereas those with access to only one model show no improvement. Experiment 2, which began with a generation of trained experts, shows how learners with access to only one model lose skills (in knot-tying) more rapidly than those with access to five models. In the final generation of both experiments, all participants with access to five models demonstrate superior skills to those with access to only one model. These results support theoretical predictions linking sociality to cumulative cultural evolution.     

Gene-culture coevolutionary theory

Gene-culture coevolutionary theory is a branch of theoretical population genetics that models the transmission of genes and cultural traits from one generation to the next, exploring how they interact. These models have been employed to examine the adaptive advantages of learning and culture, to investigate the forces of cultural change, to partition the variance in complex human behavioral and personality traits, and to address specific cases in human evolution in which there is an interaction between genes and culture.     

How Darwinian is cultural evolution?

Darwin-inspired population thinking suggests approaching culture as a population of items of different types, whose relative frequencies may change over time. Three nested subtypes of populational models can be distinguished: evolutionary, selectional and replicative. Substantial progress has been made in the study of cultural evolution by modelling it within the selectional frame. This progress has involved idealizing away from phenomena that may be critical to an adequate understanding of culture and cultural evolution, particularly the constructive aspect of the mechanisms of cultural transmission. Taking these aspects into account, we describe cultural evolution in terms of cultural attraction, which is populational and evolutionary, but only selectional under certain circumstances. As such, in order to model cultural evolution, we must not simply adjust existing replicative or selectional models but we should rather generalize them, so that, just as replicator-based selection is one form that Darwinian selection can take, selection itself is one of several different forms that attraction can take. We present an elementary formalization of the idea of cultural attraction.     

Innovativeness, population size and cumulative cultural evolution

Henrich [Henrich, J., 2004. Demography and cultural evolution: how adaptive cultural processes can produce maladaptive losses—the Tasmanian case. Am. Antiquity 69, 197-214] proposed a model designed to show that larger population size facilitates cumulative cultural evolution toward higher skill levels. In this model, each newborn attempts to imitate the most highly skilled individual of the parental generation by directly-biased social learning, but the skill level he/she acquires deviates probabilistically from that of the exemplar (cultural parent). The probability that the skill level of the imitator exceeds that of the exemplar can be regarded as the innovation rate. After reformulating Henrich’s model rigorously, we introduce an overlapping-generations analog based on the Moran model and derive an approximate formula for the expected change per generation of the highest skill level in the population. For large population size, our overlapping-generations model predicts a much larger effect of population size than Henrich’s discrete-generations model. We then investigate by way of Monte Carlo simulations the case where each newborn chooses as his/her exemplar the most highly skilled individual from among a limited number of acquaintances. When the number of acquaintances is small relative to the population size, we find that a change in the innovation rate contributes more than a proportional change in population size to the cumulative cultural evolution of skill level.     

Opportunity to assimilate and pressure to discriminate can generate cultural divergence in the laboratory

Formal models of cultural evolution have illustrated circumstances under which behavioral traits that have no inherent advantage over others can undergo positive selection pressure. One situation in which this may occur is when the behavior functions as a social marker, and there is pressure to identify oneself as a member of a particular group. Our aim in the current study was to determine whether participants organized into subpopulations could effectively exploit variation in a completely novel behavior to advertise themselves as belonging to a particular subpopulation, such that discrimination between in-group and out-group members was possible and subpopulations exhibited increasing distinctiveness. Eighty participants took part, organized into four subpopulations, each composed of five four-member generations. They each completed a tower-building task, used in previous experimental studies of cultural evolution. An incentive payment structure was imposed with the aim of motivating participants to advertise themselves as belonging to a particular subpopulation and to distinguish in-group members from members of other subpopulations. The first generation were exposed to photographs of randomly assigned “seed” towers, and later generations were exposed to photographs of the towers built by the members of the previous generation of their own subpopulation. Participants were able to discriminate towers built by in-group members of the same generation, from towers built by out-group members. Over generations, tower designs evolved such that they were increasingly identifiable as belonging to a particular subpopulation. Arbitrary traits which had no prior advantage became associated with group membership, providing empirical support for theoretical models.     

Sustainability of culture-driven population dynamics

We consider models of the interactions between human population dynamics and cultural evolution, asking whether they predict sustainable or unsustainable patterns of growth. Phenomenological models predict either unsustainable population growth or stabilization in the near future. The latter prediction, however, is based on extrapolation of current demographic trends and does not take into account causal processes of demographic and cultural dynamics. Most existing causal models assume (or derive from simplified models of the economy) a positive feedback between cultural evolution and demographic growth, and predict unlimited growth in both culture and population. We augment these models taking into account that: (1) cultural transmission is not perfect, i.e., culture can be lost; (2) culture does not always promote population growth. We show that taking these factors into account can cause radically different model behavior, such as population extinction rather than stability, and extinction rather than growth. We conclude that all models agree that a population capable of maintaining a large amount of culture, including a powerful technology, runs a high risk of being unsustainable. We suggest that future work must address more explicitly both the dynamics of resource consumption and the cultural evolution of beliefs implicated in reproductive behavior (e.g., ideas about the preferred family size) and in resource use (e.g., environmentalist stances).     

Culture and the evolution of obesity

Human predispositions to fatness and obesity are best understood in the context of cultural and biological evolution. Both genes and cultural traits that were adaptive in the context of past food scarcities play a role today in the etiology of maladaptive adult obesity. The etiology of obesity must account for the social distribution of the condition with regard to gender, ethnicity, social class, and economic modernization. This distribution, which has changed throughout history, undoubtedly involves cultural factors. A model of culture is presented that has advantages over an undifferentiated concept of the “environment” for hypothesis generation. Cultural predispositions to obesity are found in the productive economy, the mode of reproduction, social structure, and cultural beliefs about food and ideal body size. Cross-cultural comparison can contribute to an understanding of the prevalence of obesity in some modern affluent societies.     

Quantitative genetics of growth and cryptic evolution of body size in an island population

While evolution occurs when selection acts on a heritable trait, empirical studies of natural systems have frequently reported phenotypic stasis under these conditions. We performed quantitative genetic analyses of weight and hindleg length in a free-living population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) to test whether genetic constraints can explain previously reported stasis in body size despite evidence for strong positive directional selection. Genetic, maternal and environmental covariance structures were estimated across ontogeny using random regression animal models. Heritability increased with age for weight and hindleg length, though both measures of size were highly heritable across ontogeny. Genetic correlations among ages were generally strong and uniformly positive, and the covariance structures were also highly integrated across ontogeny. Consequently, we found no constraint to the evolution of larger size itself. Rather we expect size at all ages to increase in response to positive selection acting at any age. Consistent with expectation, predicted breeding values for age-specific size traits have increased over a twenty-year period, while maternal performance for offspring size has declined. Re-examination of the phenotypic data confirmed that sheep are not getting larger, but also showed that there are significant negative trends in size at all ages. The genetic evolution is therefore cryptic, with the response to selection presumably being masked at the phenotypic level by a plastic response to changing environmental conditions. Density-dependence, coupled with systematically increasing population size, may contribute to declining body size but is insufficient to completely explain it. Our results demonstrate that an increased understanding of the genetic basis of quantitative traits, and of how plasticity and microevolution can occur simultaneously, is necessary for developing predictive models of phenotypic change in nature.     

Modeling the Pre-Industrial Roots of Modern Super-Exponential Population Growth

To Malthus, rapid human population growth—so evident in 18th Century Europe—was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen''s hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography—especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model''s fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21^st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation''s embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and intergenerational resource transfers to wider institutions and social networks.     

Loss and Recovery of Genetic Diversity in Adapting Populations of HIV

The evolution of drug resistance in HIV occurs by the fixation of specific, well-known, drug-resistance mutations, but the underlying population genetic processes are not well understood. By analyzing within-patient longitudinal sequence data, we make four observations that shed a light on the underlying processes and allow us to infer the short-term effective population size of the viral population in a patient. Our first observation is that the evolution of drug resistance usually occurs by the fixation of one drug-resistance mutation at a time, as opposed to several changes simultaneously. Second, we find that these fixation events are accompanied by a reduction in genetic diversity in the region surrounding the fixed drug-resistance mutation, due to the hitchhiking effect. Third, we observe that the fixation of drug-resistance mutations involves both hard and soft selective sweeps. In a hard sweep, a resistance mutation arises in a single viral particle and drives all linked mutations with it when it spreads in the viral population, which dramatically reduces genetic diversity. On the other hand, in a soft sweep, a resistance mutation occurs multiple times on different genetic backgrounds, and the reduction of diversity is weak. Using the frequency of occurrence of hard and soft sweeps we estimate the effective population size of HIV to be ( confidence interval ). This number is much lower than the actual number of infected cells, but much larger than previous population size estimates based on synonymous diversity. We propose several explanations for the observed discrepancies. Finally, our fourth observation is that genetic diversity at non-synonymous sites recovers to its pre-fixation value within 18 months, whereas diversity at synonymous sites remains depressed after this time period. These results improve our understanding of HIV evolution and have potential implications for treatment strategies.     

Review. Studying cumulative cultural evolution in the laboratory

Cumulative cultural evolution is the term given to a particular kind of social learning, which allows for the accumulation of modifications over time, involving a ratchet-like effect where successful modifications are maintained until they can be improved upon. There has been great interest in the topic of cumulative cultural evolution from researchers from a wide variety of disciplines, but until recently there were no experimental studies of this phenomenon. Here, we describe our motivations for developing experimental methods for studying cumulative cultural evolution and review the results we have obtained using these techniques. The results that we describe have provided insights into understanding the outcomes of cultural processes at the population level. Our experiments show that cumulative cultural evolution can result in adaptive complexity in behaviour and can also produce convergence in behaviour. These findings lend support to ideas that some behaviours commonly attributed to natural selection and innate tendencies could in fact be shaped by cultural processes.     

An Experimental Test of the Accumulated Copying Error Model of Cultural Mutation for Acheulean Handaxe Size

Archaeologists interested in explaining changes in artifact morphology over long time periods have found it useful to create models in which the only source of change is random and unintentional copying error, or ‘cultural mutation’. These models can be used as null hypotheses against which to detect non-random processes such as cultural selection or biased transmission. One proposed cultural mutation model is the accumulated copying error model, where individuals attempt to copy the size of another individual''s artifact exactly but make small random errors due to physiological limits on the accuracy of their perception. Here, we first derive the model within an explicit mathematical framework, generating the predictions that multiple independently-evolving artifact chains should diverge over time such that their between-chain variance increases while the mean artifact size remains constant. We then present the first experimental test of this model in which 200 participants, split into 20 transmission chains, were asked to faithfully copy the size of the previous participant''s handaxe image on an iPad. The experimental findings supported the model''s prediction that between-chain variance should increase over time and did so in a manner quantitatively in line with the model. However, when the initial size of the image that the participants resized was larger than the size of the image they were copying, subjects tended to increase the size of the image, resulting in the mean size increasing rather than staying constant. This suggests that items of material culture formed by reductive vs. additive processes may mutate differently when individuals attempt to replicate faithfully the size of previously-produced artifacts. Finally, we show that a dataset of 2601 Acheulean handaxes shows less variation than predicted given our empirically measured copying error variance, suggesting that other processes counteracted the variation in handaxe size generated by perceptual cultural mutation.     

DIRECTIONAL CULTURAL CHANGE BY MODIFICATION AND REPLACEMENT OF MEMES

Evolutionary approaches to culture remain contentious. A source of contention is that cultural mutation may be substantial and, if it drives cultural change, then current evolutionary models are not adequate. But we lack studies quantifying the contribution of mutations to directional cultural change. We estimated the contribution of one type of cultural mutations—modification of memes—to directional cultural change using an amenable study system: learned birdsongs in a species that recently entered an urban habitat. Many songbirds have higher minimum song frequency in cities, to alleviate masking by low‐frequency noise. We estimated that the input of meme modifications in an urban songbird population explains about half the extent of the population divergence in song frequency. This contribution of cultural mutations is large, but insufficient to explain the entire population divergence. The remaining divergence is due to selection of memes or creation of new memes. We conclude that the input of cultural mutations can be quantitatively important, unlike in genetic evolution, and that it operates together with other mechanisms of cultural evolution. For this and other traits, in which the input of cultural mutations might be important, quantitative studies of cultural mutation are necessary to calibrate realistic models of cultural evolution.     

Effective population size of a population with stochastically varying size

For a Wright–Fisher model with mutation whose population size fluctuates stochastically from generation to generation, a heterozygosity effective population size is defined by means of the equilibrium average heterozygosity of the population. It is shown that this effective population size is equal to the harmonic mean of population size if and only if the stochastic changes of population size are uncorrelated. The effective population size is larger (resp. smaller) than the harmonic mean when the stochastic changes of population size are positively (resp. negatively) autocorrelated. These results and those obtained so far for other stochastic models with fluctuating population size suggest that the property that effective population sizes are always larger than the harmonic mean under the fluctuation of population size holds only for continuous time models such as diffusion and coalescent models, whereas effective population sizes can be equal to or smaller than the harmonic mean for discrete time models.     

Evolution of functionally conserved enhancers can be accelerated in large populations: a population-genetic model

The evolution of cis-regulatory elements (or enhancers) appears to proceed at dramatically different rates in different taxa. Vertebrate enhancers are often very highly conserved in their sequences, and relative positions, across distantly related taxa. In contrast, functionally equivalent enhancers in closely related Drosophila species can differ greatly in their sequences and spatial organization. We present a population-genetic model to explain this difference. The model examines the dynamics of fixation of pairs of individually deleterious, but compensating, mutations. As expected, small populations are predicted to have a high rate of evolution, and the rate decreases with increasing population size. In contrast to previous models, however, this model predicts that the rate of evolution by pairs of compensatory mutations increases dramatically for population sizes above several thousand individuals, to the point of greatly exceeding the neutral rate. Application of this model predicts that species with moderate population sizes will have relatively conserved enhancers, whereas species with larger populations will be expected to evolve their enhancers at much higher rates. We propose that the different degree of conservation seen in vertebrate and Drosophila enhancers may be explained solely by differences in their population sizes and generation times.     

Maternal effects and the response to selection in red squirrels

Mothers often provide much of the early environment for their offspring. These maternal effects are predicted to result in unusual evolutionary dynamics in offspring traits if they are themselves heritable, but these important predictions have not previously, to our knowledge, been tested in the wild. Here, we quantified the responses of red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus) to documented episodes of natural selection and found support for both of the fundamental predictions of models that describe maternal effect evolution. First, changes in juvenile growth rates across one generation of selection were five times greater than predicted by heritability (h2) alone, but were consistent with the additional contribution of maternal genetic effects. Second, responses to selection were influenced not only by the strength of selection in the current generation, but also by selection in the previous generation, indicating the presence of evolutionary momentum. These results were in agreement with predictions of a simple model including litter size as the only maternal effect, and provide, to our knowledge, the first empirical evidence for the importance of maternal effects to evolutionary dynamics in a natural population.     

Mutation accumulation in space and the maintenance of sexual reproduction

The maintenance of sexual reproduction remains one of the major puzzles of evolutionary biology, since, all else being equal, an asexual mutant should have a twofold fitness advantage over the sexual wildtype. Most theories suggest that sex helps either to purge deleterious mutations, or to adapt to changing environments. Both mechanisms have their limitations if they act in isolation because they require either high genomic mutation rates or very virulent pathogens, and it is therefore often thought that they must act together to maintain sex. Typically, however, these theories have in common that they are not based on spatial processes. Here, we show that local dispersal and local competition can explain the maintenance of sexual reproduction as a means of purging deleterious mutations. Using a spatially explicit individual-based model, we find that even with reasonably low genomic mutation rates and large total population sizes, asexual clones cannot invade a sexual population. Our results demonstrate how spatial processes affect mutation accumulation such that it can fully erode the twofold benefit of asexuality faster than an asexual clone can take over a sexual population. Thus, the cost of sex is generally overestimated in models that ignore the effects of space on mutation accumulation.