The effects of reward quality on risk-sensitivity in Rattus norvegicus

Risk-sensitive foraging theory (RSFT) was developed to explain a choice between a variable (risk-prone) or constant (risk-averse) option. In the RSFT literature, qualitative shifts in risk-sensitivity have been explained by fluctuations in daily caloric energy budget (DEB). The DEB rule describes foragers’ choices as being based on fitness and rate of gain. If the DEB rule is correct, rewards that differ in caloric returns should cause differences in foragers’ sensitivity to risk. However, few studies have explored the influence of reward quality on risk-sensitivity in mammals. The present study was designed to examine the effects of reward quality on risk-sensitivity when reward magnitude, delay to reward, body mass, and response effort were controlled. Results from the current study demonstrated that subjects rewarded with a high calorie reward (i.e., sugar) made significantly fewer choices for a variable option than subjects rewarded with a lower calorie reward (i.e., grain). These results are consistent with the predictions of the DEB rule, and add to the RSFT literature where reward quality was manipulated by describing difference in risk-sensitivity in mammals. Suggestions for future research include an examination of risk-sensitivity where flavor and caloric return are manipulated.     

Four Common Simplifications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis do not hold for River Rehabilitation

River rehabilitation aims at alleviating negative effects of human impacts such as loss of biodiversity and reduction of ecosystem services. Such interventions entail difficult trade-offs between different ecological and often socio-economic objectives. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a very suitable approach that helps assessing the current ecological state and prioritizing river rehabilitation measures in a standardized way, based on stakeholder or expert preferences. Applications of MCDA in river rehabilitation projects are often simplified, i.e. using a limited number of objectives and indicators, assuming linear value functions, aggregating individual indicator assessments additively, and/or assuming risk neutrality of experts. Here, we demonstrate an implementation of MCDA expert preference assessments to river rehabilitation and provide ample material for other applications. To test whether the above simplifications reflect common expert opinion, we carried out very detailed interviews with five river ecologists and a hydraulic engineer. We defined essential objectives and measurable quality indicators (attributes), elicited the experts´ preferences for objectives on a standardized scale (value functions) and their risk attitude, and identified suitable aggregation methods. The experts recommended an extensive objectives hierarchy including between 54 and 93 essential objectives and between 37 to 61 essential attributes. For 81% of these, they defined non-linear value functions and in 76% recommended multiplicative aggregation. The experts were risk averse or risk prone (but never risk neutral), depending on the current ecological state of the river, and the experts´ personal importance of objectives. We conclude that the four commonly applied simplifications clearly do not reflect the opinion of river rehabilitation experts. The optimal level of model complexity, however, remains highly case-study specific depending on data and resource availability, the context, and the complexity of the decision problem.     

Risk Preferences and Prenatal Exposure to Sex Hormones for Ladinos

Risk preferences drive much of human decision making including investment, career and health choices and many more. Thus, understanding the determinants of risk preferences refines our understanding of choice in a broad array of environments. We assess the relationship between risk preferences, prenatal exposure to sex hormones and gender for a sample of Ladinos, which is an ethnic group comprising 62.86% of the population of Guatemala. Prenatal exposure to sex hormones has organizational effects on brain development, and has been shown to partially explain risk preferences for Caucasians. We measure prenatal exposure to sex hormones using the ratio of the length of the index finger to the length of the ring finger (2D:4D), which is negatively (positively) correlated with prenatal exposure to testosterone (estrogen). We find that Ladino males are less risk averse than Ladino females, and that Ladino males have lower 2D:4D ratios than Ladino females on both hands. We find that the 2D:4D ratio does not explain risk preferences for Ladinos. This is true for both genders, and both hands. Our results highlight the importance of exploring the behavioral significance of 2D:4D in non-Caucasian racial groups.     

Foraging decisions in risk-uniform landscapes

Behaviour is shaped by evolution as to maximise fitness by balancing gains and risks. Models on decision making in biology, psychology or economy have investigated choices among options which differ in gain and/or risk. Meanwhile, there are decision contexts with uniform risk distributions where options are not differing in risk while the overall risk level may be high. Adequate predictions for the emerging investment patterns in risk uniformity are missing. Here we use foraging behaviour as a model for decision making. While foraging, animals often titrate food and safety from predation and prefer safer foraging options over riskier ones. Risk uniformity can occur when habitat structures are uniform, when predators are omnipresent or when predators are ideal-free distributed in relation to prey availability. However, models and empirical investigations on optimal foraging have mainly investigated choices among options with different predation risks. Based on the existing models on local decision making in risk-heterogeneity we test predictions extrapolated to a landscape level with uniform risk distribution. We compare among landscapes with different risk levels. If the uniform risk is low, local decisions on the marginal value of an option should lead to an equal distribution of foraging effort. If the uniform risk is high, foraging should be concentrated on few options, due to a landscape-wide reduction of the value of missed opportunity costs of activities other than foraging. We provide experimental support for these predictions using foraging small mammals in artificial, risk uniform landscapes. In high risk uniform landscapes animals invested their foraging time in fewer options and accepted lower total returns, compared to their behaviour in low risk-uniform landscapes. The observed trade off between gain and risk, demonstrated here for food reduction and safety increase, may possibly apply also to other contexts of economic decision making.     

An association between prediction errors and risk-seeking: Theory and behavioral evidence

Reward prediction errors (RPEs) and risk preferences have two things in common: both can shape decision making behavior, and both are commonly associated with dopamine. RPEs drive value learning and are thought to be represented in the phasic release of striatal dopamine. Risk preferences bias choices towards or away from uncertainty; they can be manipulated with drugs that target the dopaminergic system. Based on the common neural substrate, we hypothesize that RPEs and risk preferences are linked on the level of behavior as well. Here, we develop this hypothesis theoretically and test it empirically. First, we apply a recent theory of learning in the basal ganglia to predict how RPEs influence risk preferences. We find that positive RPEs should cause increased risk-seeking, while negative RPEs should cause risk-aversion. We then test our behavioral predictions using a novel bandit task in which value and risk vary independently across options. Critically, conditions are included where options vary in risk but are matched for value. We find that our prediction was correct: participants become more risk-seeking if choices are preceded by positive RPEs, and more risk-averse if choices are preceded by negative RPEs. These findings cannot be explained by other known effects, such as nonlinear utility curves or dynamic learning rates.     

Freedom of Choice About Incidental Findings Can Frustrate Participants' True Preferences

Ethicists, regulators and researchers have struggled with the question of whether incidental findings in genomics studies should be disclosed to participants. In the ethical debate, a general consensus is that disclosed information should benefit participants. However, there is no agreement that genetic information will benefit participants, rather it may cause problems such as anxiety. One could get past this disagreement about disclosure of incidental findings by letting participants express their preferences in the consent form. We argue that this freedom of choice is problematic. In transferring the decision to participants, it is assumed that participants will understand what they decide about and that they will express what they truly want. However, psychological findings about people's reaction to probabilities and risk have been shown to involve both cognitive and emotional challenges. People change their attitude to risk depending on what is at stake. Their mood affects judgments and choices, and they over‐ and underestimate probabilities depending on whether they are low or high. Moreover, different framing of the options can steer people to a specific choice. Although it seems attractive to let participants express their preferences to incidental findings in the consent form, it is uncertain if this choice enables people to express what they truly prefer. In order to better understand the participants' preferences, we argue that future empirical work needs to confront the participant with the complexity of the uncertainty and the trade‐offs that are connected with the uncertain predictive value of genetic risk information.     

Reward context determines risky choice in pigeons and humans

Whereas humans are risk averse for monetary gains, other animals can be risk seeking for food rewards, especially when faced with variable delays or under significant deprivation. A key difference between these findings is that humans are often explicitly told about the risky options, whereas non-human animals must learn about them from their own experience. We tested pigeons (Columba livia) and humans in formally identical choice tasks where all outcomes were learned from experience. Both species were more risk seeking for larger rewards than for smaller ones. The data suggest that the largest and smallest rewards experienced are overweighted in risky choice. This observed bias towards extreme outcomes represents a key step towards a consilience of these two disparate literatures, identifying common features that drive risky choice across phyla.     

Context-dependent foraging choices in risk-sensitive starlings

Existing models of risk-sensitive foraging assume that animals assign value to different options according to an absolute currency. It follows from this assumption that choices are expected to be both transitive and regular, because the value assigned to an option is independent of its context. I tested these predictions by comparing preferences obtained in binary and trinary contexts. European starlings, Sturnus vulgaris, were trained using an operant paradigm to forage for three options: Constant (C) that provided a fixed number of food pellets; Low variance (L) with a coefficient of variation of 71% in the number of pellets; High variance (H) with a coefficient of variation of 106%. The preferences of the birds were tested in three binary choice treatments (CL, CH, LH) and one trinary choice treatment (CLH). Overall, there was no evidence for violations of either transitivity or regularity. However, overall, a bird's relative preference for its most preferred option over its second most preferred option was significantly greater in the trinary treatment than in the comparable binary treatment. This effect of context on choice is compatible with starlings' use of comparative instead of absolute currencies in decision making. Copyright 2002 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.     

The Impact of Menstrual Cycle Phase on Economic Choice and Rationality

It is well known that hormones affect both brain and behavior, but less is known about the extent to which hormones affect economic decision-making. Numerous studies demonstrate gender differences in attitudes to risk and loss in financial decision-making, often finding that women are more loss and risk averse than men. It is unclear what drives these effects and whether cyclically varying hormonal differences between men and women contribute to differences in economic preferences. We focus here on how economic rationality and preferences change as a function of menstrual cycle phase in women. We tested adherence to the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preference (GARP), the standard test of economic rationality. If choices satisfy GARP then there exists a well-behaved utility function that the subject’s decisions maximize. We also examined whether risk attitudes and loss aversion change as a function of cycle phase. We found that, despite large fluctuations in hormone levels, women are as technically rational in their choice behavior as their male counterparts at all phases of the menstrual cycle. However, women are more likely to choose risky options that can lead to potential losses while ovulating; during ovulation women are less loss averse than men and therefore more economically rational than men in this regard. These findings may have market-level implications: ovulating women more effectively maximize expected value than do other groups.     

The human amygdala and orbital prefrontal cortex in behavioural regulation

Survival in complex environments depends on an ability to optimize future behaviour based on past experience. Learning from experience enables an organism to generate predictive expectancies regarding probable future states of the world, enabling deployment of flexible behavioural strategies. However, behavioural flexibility cannot rely on predictive expectancies alone and options for action need to be deployed in a manner that is responsive to a changing environment. Important moderators on learning-based predictions include those provided by context and inputs regarding an organism's current state, including its physiological state. In this paper, I consider human experimental approaches using functional magnetic resonance imaging that have addressed the role of the amygdala and prefrontal cortex (PFC), in particular the orbital PFC, in acquiring predictive information regarding the probable value of future events, updating this information, and shaping behaviour and decision processes on the basis of these value representations.     

Using niche construction theory to generate testable foraging hypotheses at Liang Bua

Niche construction theory (NCT) has emerged as a promising theoretical tool for interpreting zooarchaeological material. However, its juxtaposition against more established frameworks like optimal foraging theory (OFT) has raised important criticism around the testability of NCT for interpreting hominin foraging behavior. Here, we present an optimization foraging model with NCT features designed to consider the destructive realities of the archaeological record after providing a brief review of OFT and NCT. Our model was designed to consider a foragers decision to exploit an environment given predation risk, mortality, and payoff ratios between different ecologies, like more‐open or more‐forested environments. We then discuss how the model can be used with zooarchaeological data for inferring environmental exploitation by a primitive hominin, Homo floresiensis, from the island of Flores in Southeast Asia. Our example demonstrates that NCT can be used in combination with OFT principles to generate testable foraging hypotheses suitable for zooarchaeological research.     

Fixation patterns in simple choice reflect optimal information sampling

Simple choices (e.g., eating an apple vs. an orange) are made by integrating noisy evidence that is sampled over time and influenced by visual attention; as a result, fluctuations in visual attention can affect choices. But what determines what is fixated and when? To address this question, we model the decision process for simple choice as an information sampling problem, and approximate the optimal sampling policy. We find that it is optimal to sample from options whose value estimates are both high and uncertain. Furthermore, the optimal policy provides a reasonable account of fixations and choices in binary and trinary simple choice, as well as the differences between the two cases. Overall, the results show that the fixation process during simple choice is influenced dynamically by the value estimates computed during the decision process, in a manner consistent with optimal information sampling.     

Modeling hunter-gatherer decision making: complementing optimal foraging theory

While optimal foraging theory has been of considerable value for understanding hunter-gatherer subsistence patterns, there is a need for a complementary approach to human foraging behavior which focuses on decision-making processes. Having made this argument, the paper proposes the type of modeling approach that should be developed, using decision making during encounter foraging as an example. This model concerns the individual decision maker attempting to improve his foraging efficiency, rather than maximize it, under the constraint of limited information and with conflicting goals. This is illustrated by applying it to the Valley Bisa hunters using computer simulation.     

Context-dependent foraging decisions in rufous hummingbirds

A core assumption implicit in economic models of animal choice is that subjects assign absolute utilities to options that are independent of the type and number of alternatives available. Humans sometimes appear to violate this assumption and employ relative, as opposed to absolute, currencies when making choices. Recent evidence suggests that animals too might sometimes employ relative choice mechanisms. We tested this idea by measuring the foraging preferences of rufous hummingbirds (Selasphorus rufus) faced with choices analogous to those in which human use of relative currencies is evident. The birds experienced three treatments: a binary choice between two artificial flower types designated concentration (20 microl, 40% sucrose solution) and volume (40 microl, 20%), and two trinary treatments in which a third decoy option (either concentration decoy: 10 microl, 30% or volume decoy: 30 microl, 10%) was added to the set. The birds' preferences differed significantly across the three treatments. In the trinary treatments, the effect of the decoy options was to increase the preference for the option that dominated the decoy. These results are similar to those reported in the human choice literature, and are compatible with the hummingbirds using a relative evaluation mechanism in decision making.     

Rational mate choice decisions vary with female age and multidimensional male signals in swordtails

Biologists have long been interested in intransitive preferences: circular preferences in which options cannot be ranked and no single option dominates, similar to a game of rock‐paper‐scissors. Intransitive preferences violate rational decision‐making, an assumption made by models of evolution by mate choice. Despite its potential importance in the study of sexual selection, few studies have tested for intransitive preferences. Even fewer have asked whether females differ in whether they choose mates transitively or intransitively and what factors might predict (in)transitive choice. Though intransitive choice is thought to be more common as options become more complex, this prediction is untested in animals. To fill this gap, we tested whether female Xiphophorus nigrensis swordtails can rank digitally animated males differing in size, courtship intensity, or both size and courtship intensity, and whether female responses were predicted by a female's age. Females choosing among males that varied only in size showed higher than expected levels of intransitivity, whereas females choosing among males that varied in their courtship or both properties did not. Older females were more likely to be irrational than younger females when evaluating male size, suggesting that experience modifies transitive decision‐making processes. These results show that mate choice irrationality may vary by a female's experience and the signal characteristics during decision‐making.     

Natural decision theory: A general formalism for the analysis of evolved characteristics

Classical Decision Theory, a mature and highly developed theory of rational choice, can be applied within evolutionary biology to the question of what traits an organism ought “rationally” to adopt, given that it wants to maximize its fitness. In this way the powerful formalism of decision theory can be brought to bear on the problem of how to predict which characters will be favored by natural selection, or to explain why certain characters have been so favored.Under some circumstances the classical theory of decision can be applied as it stands to an evolutionary problem simply by substituting an appropriate measure of biological fitness for the decision-theoretic concept of “utility”. Under other circumstances, however, it is necessary to extend the classical rules of decision in certain new directions. The result is a family of decision calculi of which the classical is only one. The name “Natural Decision Theory” is proposed for this extended class of biologically relevant decision methods.The decision tree method of diagramming an evolutionary decision situation is illustrated for the classical and three non-classical decision criteria, and is suggested as a potential means of gaining new insights into evolutionary forces.     

Evolutionary stability of optimal foraging: Partial preferences in the diet and patch models

In this article the patch and diet choice models of the optimal foraging theory are reanalyzed with respect to evolutionary stability of the optimal foraging strategies. In their original setting these fundamental models consider a single consumer only and the resulting fitness functions are both frequency and density independent. Such fitness functions do not allow us to apply the classical game theoretical methods to study an evolutionary stability of optimal foraging strategies for competing animals. In this article frequency and density dependent fitness functions of optimal foraging are derived by separation of time scales in an underlying population dynamical model and corresponding evolutionarily stable strategies are calculated. Contrary to the classical foraging models the results of the present article predict that partial preferences occur in optimal foraging strategies as a consequence of the ecological feedback of consumer preferences on consumer fitness. In the case of the patch occupation model these partial preferences correspond to the ideal free distribution concept while in the case of the diet choice model they correspond to the partial inclusion of the less profitable prey type in predators diet.     

The glass is half-full: overestimating the quality of a novel environment is advantageous

According to optimal foraging theory, foraging decisions are based on the forager's current estimate of the quality of its environment. However, in a novel environment, a forager does not possess information regarding the quality of the environment, and may make a decision based on a biased estimate. We show, using a simple simulation model, that when facing uncertainty in heterogeneous environments it is better to overestimate the quality of the environment (to be an "optimist") than underestimate it, as optimistic animals learn the true value of the environment faster due to higher exploration rate. Moreover, we show that when the animal has the capacity to remember the location and quality of resource patches, having a positively biased estimate of the environment leads to higher fitness gains than having an unbiased estimate, due to the benefits of exploration. Our study demonstrates how a simple model of foraging with incomplete information, derived directly from optimal foraging theory, can produce well documented complex space-use patterns of exploring animals.     

Led into Temptation? Rewarding Brand Logos Bias the Neural Encoding of Incidental Economic Decisions

Human decision-making is driven by subjective values assigned to alternative choice options. These valuations are based on reward cues. It is unknown, however, whether complex reward cues, such as brand logos, may bias the neural encoding of subjective value in unrelated decisions. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study, we subliminally presented brand logos preceding intertemporal choices. We demonstrated that priming biased participants' preferences towards more immediate rewards in the subsequent temporal discounting task. This was associated with modulations of the neural encoding of subjective values of choice options in a network of brain regions, including but not restricted to medial prefrontal cortex. Our findings demonstrate the general susceptibility of the human decision making system to apparently incidental contextual information. We conclude that the brain incorporates seemingly unrelated value information that modifies decision making outside the decision-maker's awareness.