Geographical gradients in the population dynamics of North American prairie ducks

1. Geographic gradients in population dynamics may occur because of spatial variation in resources that affect the deterministic components of the dynamics (i.e. carrying capacity, the specific growth rate at small densities or the strength of density regulation) or because of spatial variation in the effects of environmental stochasticity. To evaluate these, we used a hierarchical Bayesian approach to estimate parameters characterizing deterministic components and stochastic influences on population dynamics of eight species of ducks (mallard, northern pintail, blue-winged teal, gadwall, northern shoveler, American wigeon, canvasback and redhead (Anas platyrhynchos, A. acuta, A. discors, A. strepera, A. clypeata, A. americana, Aythya valisineria and Ay. americana, respectively) breeding in the North American prairies, and then tested whether these parameters varied latitudinally. 2. We also examined the influence of temporal variation in the availability of wetlands, spring temperature and winter precipitation on population dynamics to determine whether geographical gradients in population dynamics were related to large-scale variation in environmental effects. Population variability, as measured by the variance of the population fluctuations around the carrying capacity K, decreased with latitude for all species except canvasback. This decrease in population variability was caused by a combination of latitudinal gradients in the strength of density dependence, carrying capacity and process variance, for which details varied by species. 3. The effects of environmental covariates on population dynamics also varied latitudinally, particularly for mallard, northern pintail and northern shoveler. However, the proportion of the process variance explained by environmental covariates, with the exception of mallard, tended to be small. 4. Thus, geographical gradients in population dynamics of prairie ducks resulted from latitudinal gradients in both deterministic and stochastic components, and were likely influenced by spatial differences in the distribution of wetland types and shapes, agricultural practices and dispersal processes. 5. These results suggest that future management of these species could be improved by implementing harvest models that account explicitly for spatial variation in density effects and environmental stochasticity on population abundance.     

Relationship Between Nest Predation Suffered by Hosts and Brown-Headed Cowbird Parasitism: A Comparative Study

There are at least four main hypotheses that may explain how the evolution of host selection by avian brood parasites could be linked to nest predation among their potential hosts. First, selection may have favoured parasite phenotypes discriminating among hosts on the basis of expected nest failure. Second, parasitized nests may be more easily detected by predators and extra costs of parasitism may accelerate the evolution of host defences. Third, selection may have favoured predator phenotypes avoiding parasitized nests because parasitism enhances nest defence. Fourth, female brood parasites may directly or indirectly induce host nesting failures in order to enhance future laying opportunities. We collected data on brood parasitism and nest failure due to predation to test these hypotheses in a comparative approach using North American passerines and their brood parasite, the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater. Under the hypotheses 1 or 3 we predicted brood parasitism to be negatively associated with nest predation across species, whereas this relation is expected to be positive if hypotheses 2 or 4 are true. We demonstrate that independent of host suitability, nest location, habitat type, length of the nestling period, body mass and similarity among species due to common ancestry, species experiencing relatively high levels of nest predation suffered lower levels of cowbird parasitism. Our results suggest a previously ignored role for nest predation suffered by hosts on the dynamics of the coevolutionary relationships between hosts and avian brood parasites. Co-ordinating editor: Dr. F. Stuefer     

Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae

Aim

To assess how habitat loss and climate change interact in affecting the range dynamics of species and to quantify how predicted range dynamics depend on demographic properties of species and the severity of environmental change.

Location

South African Cape Floristic Region.

Methods

We use data‐driven demographic models to assess the impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on range size, range filing and abundances of eight species of woody plants (Proteaceae). The species‐specific models employ a hybrid approach that simulates population dynamics and long‐distance dispersal on top of expected spatio‐temporal dynamics of suitable habitat.

Results

Climate change was mainly predicted to reduce range size and range filling (because of a combination of strong habitat shifts with low migration ability). In contrast, habitat loss mostly decreased mean local abundance. For most species and response measures, the combination of habitat loss and climate change had the most severe effect. Yet, this combined effect was mostly smaller than expected from adding or multiplying effects of the individual environmental drivers. This seems to be because climate change shifts suitable habitats to regions less affected by habitat loss. Interspecific variation in range size responses depended mostly on the severity of environmental change, whereas responses in range filling and local abundance depended mostly on demographic properties of species. While most surviving populations concentrated in areas that remain climatically suitable, refugia for multiple species were overestimated by simply overlying habitat models and ignoring demography.

Main conclusions

Demographic models of range dynamics can simultaneously predict the response of range size, abundance and range filling to multiple drivers of environmental change. Demographic knowledge is particularly needed to predict abundance responses and to identify areas that can serve as biodiversity refugia under climate change. These findings highlight the need for data‐driven, demographic assessments in conservation biogeography.

     

Consequences of information use in breeding habitat selection on the evolution of settlement time

The role of temporal changes and spatial variability in predation risk and prey's means of mitigating such risks is poorly understood in the context of potential threats of global climate change for migratory birds. Yet nest predation, for example, represents a primary source of reproductive mortality in birds. To assess risk birds must spend time prospecting potential breeding sites for cues or signals of predator presence. However, competition for breeding sites with advantage to prior residency poses an evolutionary dilemma as individuals also benefit from early settling. We develop a model to examine adaptive prospecting time for predator cues on breeding grounds characterized by spatial heterogeneity in nest predation risk. We study how populations respond to environmental change represented by variation in habitat specific levels of nest predation, habitat composition, population vital rates, and availability of information (via prospecting) in the form of acoustic predator cues. We identify two mechanisms that regulate and buffer impacts of environmental change on populations. First, the adaptive response to lower population abundance under deteriorating environmental conditions is to increase prospecting time, which in turn increases individuals nest success to counteract population declines. This occurs because reduced competition for sites decreases the benefit of early settlement. Second, per capita success in site choice increases during population declines owing to reduced competition that increases the availability of good sites. We also show that the increased benefit to settling early when competition increases can lead to the paradoxical result that with greater spatial heterogeneity, less effort is placed on discerning good and bad sites. Our analysis thus contributes several novel results by which nest predation, settlement phenology, prospecting time and information gathering can influence species capacity to adapt to changing environments.     

Effects of intra- and interspecific brood parasitism on a precocial host, the canvasback, Aythya valisineria

Canvasback ducks (Aythya valisineria) suffer both intra- andinterspecific brood parasitism. During 3 years in Manitoba,80% of canvasback nests (n = 179 nests with completed clutches)were parasitized by redheads (A. americana), other canvasbacks,or both, with an average of 4.7 parasitic eggs per parasitizednest. Parasitism had significant negative effects on the reproductivesuccess of nesting canvasbacks, although the proximate mechanismsinvolved differed from those operating in altricial species.Accidental displacement of eggs when parasitic females forcedtheir way onto host nests was the principal negative effectof parasitism, reducing the number of host eggs that were incubatedand ultimately hatched. Parasitism by redheads was relativelymore costly to canvasbacks than was intraspecific parasitism,with approximately 0.31 and 0.17 host eggs displaced per parasiticredhead and canvasback egg laid, respectively. No additionalnegative effects of parasitism on the hatchability of host eggsoccurred subsequent to parasitic laying. Posthatch survivalof canvasback ducklings was lower in broods from parasitizednests but was unrelated to the presence or absence of redheadducklings. Canvasback hosts resisted intrusions by parasiticfemales but showed no evidence of discrimination against parasiticeggs or ducklings. Because most costs of parasitism in thissystem are inflicted at the time of parasitic laying, subsequentrejection of parasitic eggs or ducklings is probably of littlebenefit to canvasback hosts, while the evolution of behaviorthat might prevent parasitic laying in the first place, suchas more vigorous nest defense, may be constrained by its highcosts     

Temporal patterns of host availability, brown-headed cowbird brood parasitism, and parasite egg mass

I studied relationships between temporal patterns of host availability, brood parasitism, and egg mass for the parasitic brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater). At a study site consisting largely of edge habitat in north-eastern Illinois, I found 834 bird nests from 27 species. A total of 407 cowbird eggs and nestlings were found in these nests over three laying seasons. Nearly all (n= 379; 93%) were found in the nests of seven host species. For these species and all taken together, weekly nest availability generally decreased whereas parasitism frequency generally increased throughout the cowbird laying season, but the proportions of nests parasitized and the mean number of cowbird eggs in them did not. Additionally, no correlation was found between the proportions of nests parasitized and nest availability. Cowbird egg mass generally increased throughout the laying season, indicating that foraging conditions improved and that, early in the laying season, egg mass and quality may be less important than quantity. Consistently high weekly levels of parasitism indicate that cowbird reproduction was less limited by resources needed for egg production and more by the availability of suitable host nests. Fluctuating weekly host availabilities suggest that previously established, constant rates of cowbird egg laying would produce an excess of eggs during periods of low host availability. Further, the low frequency of parasitism (1%) of nests in stages too advanced for successful parasitism, and of abandoned nests, is consistent with the hypothesis that cowbirds' consistently high rate of egg production helps assure an egg is available when an appropriate nest is found. Frequently, nests were parasitized multiple times, raising the possibility that cowbirds were interfering with their own reproduction. A diverse host community increases the possibility that a decline of any one host species is unlikely to affect cowbird reproduction significantly. Received 11 July 1997 / Accepted: 31 March 1998     

Climate change has indirect effects on resource use and overlap among coexisting bird species with negative consequences for their reproductive success

Climate change can modify ecological interactions, but whether it can have cascading effects throughout ecological networks of multiple interacting species remains poorly studied. Climate‐driven alterations in the intensity of plant–herbivore interactions may have particularly profound effects on the larger community because plants provide habitat for a wide diversity of organisms. Here we show that changes in vegetation over the last 21 years, due to climate effects on plant–herbivore interactions, have consequences for songbird nest site overlap and breeding success. Browsing‐induced reductions in the availability of preferred nesting sites for two of three ground nesting songbirds led to increasing overlap in nest site characteristics among all three bird species with increasingly negative consequences for reproductive success over the long term. These results demonstrate that changes in the vegetation community from effects of climate change on plant–herbivore interactions can cause subtle shifts in ecological interactions that have critical demographic ramifications for other species in the larger community.     

Density dependence forces divergent population growth rates and alters occupancy patterns of a central place foraging Antarctic seabird

Density‐dependent regulation is an important process in spatio‐temporal population dynamics because it can alter the effects of synchronizing processes operating over large spatial scales. Most frequently, populations are regulated by density dependence when higher density leads to reduced individual fitness and population growth, but inverse density dependence can also occur when small populations are subject to higher extinction risks. We investigate whether density‐dependent regulation influences population growth for the Antarctic breeding Adélie penguin Pygoscelis adeliae. Understanding the prevalence and nature of density dependence for this species is important because it is considered a sentinel species reflecting the impacts of fisheries and environmental change over large spatial scales in the Southern Ocean, but the presence of density dependence could introduce uncertainty in this role. Using data on population growth and indices of resource availability for seven regional Adélie penguin populations located along the East Antarctic coastline, we find compelling evidence that population growth is constrained at some locations by the amount of breeding habitat available to individuals. Locations with low breeding habitat availability had reduced population growth rates, higher overall occupancy rates, and higher occupancy of steeper slopes that are sparsely occupied or avoided at other locations. Our results are consistent with evolutionary models of avian breeding habitat selection where individuals search for high‐quality nest sites to maximize fitness returns and subsequently occupy poorer habitat as population density increases. Alternate explanations invoking competition for food were not supported by the available evidence, but strong conclusions on food‐related density dependence were constrained by the paucity of food availability data over the large spatial scales of this region. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating nonconstant conditions of species–environment relationships into predictive models of species distributions and population dynamics, and provides guidance for improved monitoring of fisheries and climate change impacts in the Southern Ocean.     

Intraspecific brood parasitism can increase the number of eggs that an individual lays in its own nest

Intraspecific brood parasitism involves laying eggs in the nest of another individual of the same species without subsequently caring for the eggs or hatchlings. Where individuals lay in their own nest as well as parasitically, previous works predicted that parasitism leads to fewer eggs being laid in an individual's own nest, compared with the equivalent situation without parasitism. This is predicted to occur both to reduce the effects of competition from parasitically laid individuals and because parasitism can be used to reduce competition between siblings. Here, we present a quantitative model of this situation. This model indicates that the brood-reduction prediction does not hold universally. For some plausible parameter combinations, parasitism causes an increase rather than a decrease in the number of eggs laid by an individual in its own nest. This occurs because parasitism becomes a less profitable tactic as more eggs are laid by nest owners due to increasing within-nest competition. Increasing clutch size will also increase competition between the host's own offspring, but can still be advantageous if the induced reduction in parasitism is sufficient.     

Plant selection for nest building by western lowland gorillas in Cameroon

We examined 834 nests built by western lowland gorillas in Cameroon between July 2008 and July 2011 to identify the plant species used in their construction. Preference for each plant species for nesting was assessed using a ‘preference index’ calculated by combining information on the occurrence of each species in the forest and in the nests. Forty-six plant species representing about 15 % of the total number of species in the forest and 26 % of species used for nest building were frequently used by gorillas. Preference levels significantly varied among these species. Nests were mostly built with herbs of the families Marantaceae and Zingiberaceae and woody species such as Manniophyton fulvum (liana) and Alchornea floribunda (shrub). As observed in other gorilla populations, suitability for nest building and availability of gorilla food in stems were the likely determinants of plant selection. The total number of species used per nest ranged from 1 to 11, with an average of 4.9. This is high compared to other sites, emphasizing variability in the availability of nest building materials and habitat differences across the range of the western gorilla. Seasonal changes in the use of different habitat types for nesting did not appear to influence plant use for nest building as there was little variation in plant selection across seasons or the composition of nests. Our findings suggest that gorillas non-randomly select plant species to build nests, and use a particular set of species combined at varying proportions, with no clear seasonal or spatial patterns.     

Extinction–immigration dynamics lag behind environmental filtering in shaping the composition of tropical dry forests within a changing landscape

The impact of rapid habitat loss and fragmentation on biodiversity is a major issue. However, we still lack an integrative understanding of how these changes influence biodiversity dynamics over time. In this study, we investigate the effects of these changes in terms of both niche-based and neutral dynamics. We hypothesize that habitat loss has delayed effects on neutral immigration–extinction dynamics, while edge effects and environmental heterogeneity in habitat patches have rapid effects on niche-based dynamics. We analyzed taxonomic and functional composition of 100 tree communities in a tropical dry forest landscape of New-Caledonia subject to habitat loss and fragmentation. We designed an original, process-based simulation framework, and performed Approximate Bayesian Computation to infer the influence of niche-based and neutral processes. Then, we performed partial regressions to evaluate the relationships between inferred parameter values of communities and landscape metrics (distance to edge, patch area, and habitat amount around communities), derived from either recent or past (65 yr ago) aerial photographs, while controlling for the effect of soil and topography. We found that landscape structure influences both environmental filtering and immigration. Immigration rate was positively related to past habitat amount surrounding communities. In contrast, environmental filtering was mostly affected by present landscape structure and mainly influenced by edge vicinity and topography. Our results highlight that landscape changes have contrasting spatio-temporal influences on niche-based and neutral assembly dynamics. First, landscape-level habitat loss and community isolation reduce immigration and increase demographic stochasticity, resulting in slow decline of local species diversity and extinction debt. Second, recent edge creation affects environmental filtering, incurring rapid changes in community composition by favoring species with edge-adapted strategies. Our study brings new insights about temporal impacts of landscape changes on biodiversity dynamics. We stress that landscape history critically influences these dynamics and should be taken into account in conservation policies.     

Community-level patterns of population recruitment in a generalist avian brood parasite, the brown-headed cowbird

The brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater) is a generalist brood parasite that typically parasitizes many host species in a single bird community. Population recruitment in a generalist parasite should be diverse with respect to host species; however, host-specific rates of cowbird recruitment have not been reported in any host community, and the determinants of host quality are poorly known. We studied the combined influence of parasitism level, nest abundance, and host quality on community-level patterns of cowbird recruitment in New Mexico, USA. Our objectives were to: (1) evaluate patterns of host use and quality; (2) compare cowbird egg investment and recruitment among host species; (3) identify host species of most importance to cowbird recruitment. Cowbirds parasitized 11 host species, with five “major” hosts experiencing high parasitism levels (≥1 cowbird egg/nest) and six minor hosts experiencing low parasitism levels (<0.3 cowbird eggs/nest). Parasitism level was not correlated with host species abundance, host mass, host nestling period length, or host success at fledging cowbirds. However, tree-nesting hosts were parasitized more than ground-nesters, and foliage-gleaners more than sally-foragers and ground-foragers. Average estimated survival to fledging of cowbird eggs laid in active host nests was 0.19. Cowbird recruitment was diverse with respect to hosts but was less evenly distributed across the host community than was cowbird egg investment because western tanagers (Piranga ludovicianus) fledged cowbirds more successfully than other hosts. This success in western tanagers was due to high cowbird survivorship in tanager nests and may be associated with the larger body size of tanagers relative to other hosts.     

Molecular tracking of individual host use in the Shiny Cowbird – a generalist brood parasite

Generalist parasites exploit multiple host species at the population level, but the individual parasite's strategy may be either itself a generalist or a specialist pattern of host species use. Here, we studied the relationship between host availability and host use in the individual parasitism patterns of the Shiny Cowbird Molothrus bonariensis, a generalist avian obligate brood parasite that parasitizes an extreme range of hosts. Using five microsatellite markers and an 1120‐bp fragment of the mtDNA control region, we reconstructed full‐sibling groups from 359 cowbird eggs and chicks found in nests of the two most frequent hosts in our study area, the Chalk‐browed Mockingbird Mimus saturninus and the House Wren Troglodytes aedon. We were able to infer the laying behavior of 17 different females a posteriori and found that they were mostly faithful to a particular laying area and host species along the entire reproductive season and did not avoid using previously parasitized nests (multiple parasitism) even when other nests were available for parasitism. Moreover, we found females using the same host nest more than once (repeated parasitism), which had not been previously reported for this species. We also found few females parasitizing more than one host species. The use of an alternative host was not related to the main hosts' nest availability. Overall, female shiny cowbirds use a spatially structured and host species specific approach for parasitism, but they do so nonexclusively, resulting in both detectable levels of multiple parasitism and generalism at the level of individual parasites.     

Implications of nest-site limitation on density-dependent nest predation at variable spatial scales in a cavity-nesting bird

Nest‐site limitation may have different implications in the spatial distribution of breeding pairs depending on the availability of suitable habitat and the types of nest‐sites. Distribution of cavities suitable as nest sites may allow circumstantial aggregation or active choice of colonial nesting, which may have different implications on breeding performance through effects on breeding density, with variable costs and benefits depending on the consequences of intraspecific competition, social interactions and predation. We evaluated the effects of breeding density derived from nesting site limitation on breeding performance and predation at different spatial scales and considering multiple social, population and environmental limiting factors in the red‐billed chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax. The results indicate that variable breeding density may arise within the population depending on the availability and spatial distribution of nest‐sites. Nest‐site availability and distribution may also determine social breeding systems (isolated or aggregated) at variable densities, thus resembling differences found at different spatially distant populations under contrasting environmental conditions. Breeding performance was related to density‐dependent processes of population regulation, especially density‐dependent nest predation due to predator attraction to nest clusters. Results also indicate that predation pressure depend on density patterns at large scales. This suggest that predation may have important consequences on population dynamics of spatially structured populations depending on the strength of this kind of density dependence, which in turn may depend on habitat features affecting the prey but also the spatially variable guild of predators. Because habitat and nesting site availability may vary spatially depending on multiple human influences, understanding the strength and form in which breeding density and nest predation at different spatial scales may influence the size and persistence of populations can help to manage them more adequately.     

Biased parasitoid sex ratios: Wolbachia,functional traits,local and landscape effects

Adult sex ratio (ASR) is a key demographic parameter, being essential for the survival and dynamics of populations. Biased ASRs are adaptations to the environment on different scales, resulting from different mechanisms such as inbreeding, mating behaviour, resource limitations, endosymbionts such as Wolbachia, and changes in density or spatial distribution. Parasitoid ASRs are known to be strongly biased, but little information is available on how they are affected by large-scale variables such as landscape composition or fragmentation. We examined whether landscape scale variables affect the ASR of several parasitoid species belonging to the same tritrophic gall inducer community. We examined the effects of various explanatory variables on parasitoid ASR: the ovipositor length (a species level functional trait), resource amount (gall size) and density (local scale) as well as habitat amount, land use and landscape history (landscape scale). We controlled for the incidence and prevalence of Wolbachia infections. We found that parasitoid ASR is best explained by and positively correlated with ovipositor length and gall diameter. The interaction of functional traits with habitat availability also significantly explained parasitoid ASRs. Our results support the hypothesis that large-scale environmental characteristics affect parasitoid ASRs in addition to intrinsic and local characteristics.     

Reproduction and survival of a solitary bee along native and exotic floral resource gradients

Native bee abundance has long been assumed to be limited by floral resources. This paradigm has been established in large measure because more bees are often found in areas supporting greater floral abundance. This could result from attraction to resource-rich sites as well as greater local demographic performance in sites supporting high floral abundance; however, demographic performance is usually unknown. Factors other than floral resources such as availability of nest sites, pressure from natural enemies, or whether floral resources are from a mixed native or mostly monodominant exotic assemblage might influence survival or fecundity and hence abundance. We examined how the survival and fecundity of the native solitary bee Osmia lignaria varied along a gradient in floral resource abundance. We released bees alongside a nest block at 27 grassland sites in Montana (USA) that varied in floral abundance and the extent of invasion by exotic forbs. We monitored nest construction and the fate of offspring within each nest. The number of nests established was positively related to native forb abundance and was negatively related to exotic forb species richness. Fecundity was positively related to native forb species richness; however, offspring mortality caused by the brood parasite Tricrania stansburyi was significantly greater in native-dominated sites. These results suggest that native floral resources can positively influence bee populations, but that the relationship between native floral resources and bee population performance is not straightforward. Rather, bees may face a trade-off between high offspring production and low offspring survival in native-dominated sites.     

Species synchrony and its drivers: neutral and nonneutral community dynamics in fluctuating environments

Independent species fluctuations are commonly used as a null hypothesis to test the role of competition and niche differences between species in community stability. This hypothesis, however, is unrealistic because it ignores the forces that contribute to synchronization of population dynamics. Here we present a mechanistic neutral model that describes the dynamics of a community of equivalent species under the joint influence of density dependence, environmental forcing, and demographic stochasticity. We also introduce a new standardized measure of species synchrony in multispecies communities. We show that the per capita population growth rates of equivalent species are strongly synchronized, especially when endogenous population dynamics are cyclic or chaotic, while their long-term fluctuations in population sizes are desynchronized by ecological drift. We then generalize our model to nonneutral dynamics by incorporating temporal and nontemporal forms of niche differentiation. Niche differentiation consistently decreases the synchrony of species per capita population growth rates, while its effects on the synchrony of population sizes are more complex. Comparing the observed synchrony of species per capita population growth rates with that predicted by the neutral model potentially provides a simple test of deterministic asynchrony in a community.     

Population dynamics of animals in unpredictably-changing tropical environments

We studied population dynamics of a solitary phytophagous beetle,Epilachna viqintioctopunctata and a social stingless bee,Trigona minangkabau, in Sumatra, Indonesia for 5 years from 1981. Population increase ofEpilachna vigintioctopunctata was suppressed in months of normal rainfall (≥300mm) but was released in the 1982–1983 El Nino-Southern. Oscillation when rainfall dropped to 50% of the long-term average. Mechanisms might be direct; rainfall lowered egg hatchability and the time of adult’s residence on host plants. When dry weather continued for more than three generations, theEpilachna vigintioctopunctata population reached a density at which food shortage due to defoliation occurred. Although parasitism of immature stages was high, it was not a population-regulating factor. Thus, there were two types of ecological crunch: competition for food resources at the end of favourable dry periods and high mortality during heavy rainfall periods that usually followed El Nino-Southern Oscillation dry conditions. By an experimental addition of artificial nest sites, colony density ofTrigona minangkabau increased 2.5 times the original density of natural colonies. One-half of artificial nest sites were occupied by arboreal ants and thus competition for nest sites with ants suppressed further increase ofTrigona minangkabau. Intermediate rainfall was favourable forTrigona minangkabau because the rate of colony foundation decreased both during dry El Niño-Southern Oscillation months and months with heavy rain. Colony death was independent from rainfall. Many colonies that survived for 6 months persisted for >2 years and colony density was quite stable.Trigona minangkabau colonies could survive even under unfavourable periods, by hoarding resources in the nest. There was no significant ecological crunch during the study period and colony density almost always tracked the carrying capacity of the habitat, which was basically determined by nest-site abundance. Climatic conditions, especially rainfall, changed with various periodicities, 4–5 years for El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and 2 years for the monsoon and other shorter periods. The contribution of periodicities of 1 and 0.5 years, that were linked to movement of the sun, were weak, indicating that animals could not use seasonal changes of environments,e.g. daylength, to predict environmental changes. We discuss traits adaptive to such unpredictably-changing tropical environments. Separation of predictability of temporal environmental change and synchronous changes among patches improves our understanding. Low oviposition rate and resulting prolonged life-span ofEpilachna vigintioctopunctata, usually associated withK-selected traits of life history, seem to be adaptations for unpredictable environmental changes.     

Investigating patterns and processes of demographic variation: environmental correlates of pre-breeding survival in red-billed choughs Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax

1. Quantifying the pattern of temporal and spatial variation in demography, and identifying the factors that cause this variation, are essential steps towards understanding the structure and dynamics of any population. 2. One critical but understudied demographic rate is pre-breeding survival. We used long-term colour-ringing data to quantify temporal (among-year) and spatial (among-nest site) variation in pre-breeding survival in red-billed choughs (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) inhabiting Islay, Scotland, and identified environmental correlates of this variation. 3. Random-effects capture-mark-recapture models demonstrated substantial temporal and spatial process variance in first-year survival; survival from fledging to age 1 year varied markedly among choughs fledged in different years and fledged from different nest sites. Spatial variance exceeded temporal variance across choughs fledged from well-studied nest sites. 4. The best-supported models of temporal variation suggested that first-year survival was higher in years following high tipulid larvae abundance and when weather conditions favoured increased invertebrate productivity and/or availability to foraging choughs. These variables explained up to 80% of estimated temporal process variance. 5. The best-supported models of spatial variation suggested that first-year survival was higher in choughs fledged from nest sites that were further from exposed coasts and closer to flocking areas, and surrounded by better habitat and higher chough density. These variables explained up to 40% of estimated spatial process variance. 6. Importantly, spatio-temporal models indicated interactive effects of weather, tipulid abundance, local habitat and local chough density on first-year survival, suggesting that detrimental effects of poor weather and low tipulid abundance may be reduced in choughs fledged from nest sites surrounded by better foraging habitat and lower chough density. 7. These analyses demonstrate substantial temporal and small-scale spatial variation in pre-breeding survival, a key demographic rate, and indicate that this variation may reflect interactive effects of weather, prey abundance, habitat and geography. These patterns illustrate the value of holistic models of demographic variation, and indicate environmental factors that may limit the growth rate of Islay's protected chough population.     

Community-wide patterns of parasitism of a host “generalist” brood-parasitic cowbird

The brown-headed cowbird (Molothrusater) is a generalist obligate brood parasite. Despite intensive study and growing concern over the negative impact of cowbird parasitism on populations of many hosts, very little is known about the factors influencing community-wide patterns of cowbird parasitism. Using systematic nest searches, nest parasitism was studied over two breeding seasons at a study site in northeastern Illinois encompassing grassland, forest-edge, and forest habitat, supporting a diverse avian community. Parasitism was observed for 18 out of 34 altricial bird species found nesting at the study site. A total of 299 cowbird eggs and nestlings were found in 191 of a total of 593 nests. Analyses revealed several ecological and behavioral factors associated with frequency of parasitism and the resulting distribution of cowbird eggs. Much higher frequencies of parasitism were found in edge and forest habitats than in grassland. Within the edge habitat, open nests were parasitized significantly more often than cavity nests. Among open nests in the edge habitat, the two largest species were never parasitized. Host behavior, particularly egg-ejection behavior, was associated with a reduced observed frequency of parasitism, but at least three species known to eject cowbird eggs were sometimes parasitized. For six common hosts capable of rearing cowbirds, we found no correlation between level of parasitism and host nest-survivorship, suggesting that fine-grained assessments of host quality by female cowbirds do not influence patterns of parasitism among acceptable host species, or that differences in host quality are not great and/or predictable enough for such fine-grained assessments. Our results suggest that when a variety of possible nests are available, the level of parasitism on a particular species is a balance between a␣cowbird's preference for a particular species and the effectiveness of host species' defenses. A conceptual model was developed that incorporates the observed correlation of cowbird eggs or nestlings with habitat, nest-type, host species' body mass, and host behavioral defenses. Additional community-wide studies of cowbird parasitism will test if this model is applicable to other avian communities. Received: 20 December 1996 / Accepted: 17 May 1997