Transition between stochastic evolution and deterministic evolution in the presence of selection: general theory and application to virology.

We present here a self-contained analytic review of the role of stochastic factors acting on a virus population. We develop a simple one-locus, two-allele model of a haploid population of constant size including the factors of random drift, purifying selection, and random mutation. We consider different virological experiments: accumulation and reversion of deleterious mutations, competition between mutant and wild-type viruses, gene fixation, mutation frequencies at the steady state, divergence of two populations split from one population, and genetic turnover within a single population. In the first part of the review, we present all principal results in qualitative terms and illustrate them with examples obtained by computer simulation. In the second part, we derive the results formally from a diffusion equation of the Wright-Fisher type and boundary conditions, all derived from the first principles for the virus population model. We show that the leading factors and observable behavior of evolution differ significantly in three broad intervals of population size, N. The "neutral limit" is reached when N is smaller than the inverse selection coefficient. When N is larger than the inverse mutation rate per base, selection dominates and evolution is "almost" deterministic. If the selection coefficient is much larger than the mutation rate, there exists a broad interval of population sizes, in which weakly diverse populations are almost neutral while highly diverse populations are controlled by selection pressure. We discuss in detail the application of our results to human immunodeficiency virus population in vivo, sampling effects, and limitations of the model.     

Effects of Ploidy and Recombination on Evolution of Robustness in a Model of the Segment Polarity Network

Many genetic networks are astonishingly robust to quantitative variation, allowing these networks to continue functioning in the face of mutation and environmental perturbation. However, the evolution of such robustness remains poorly understood for real genetic networks. Here we explore whether and how ploidy and recombination affect the evolution of robustness in a detailed computational model of the segment polarity network. We introduce a novel computational method that predicts the quantitative values of biochemical parameters from bit sequences representing genotype, allowing our model to bridge genotype to phenotype. Using this, we simulate 2,000 generations of evolution in a population of individuals under stabilizing and truncation selection, selecting for individuals that could sharpen the initial pattern of engrailed and wingless expression. Robustness was measured by simulating a mutation in the network and measuring the effect on the engrailed and wingless patterns; higher robustness corresponded to insensitivity of this pattern to perturbation. We compared robustness in diploid and haploid populations, with either asexual or sexual reproduction. In all cases, robustness increased, and the greatest increase was in diploid sexual populations; diploidy and sex synergized to evolve greater robustness than either acting alone. Diploidy conferred increased robustness by allowing most deleterious mutations to be rescued by a working allele. Sex (recombination) conferred a robustness advantage through “survival of the compatible”: those alleles that can work with a wide variety of genetically diverse partners persist, and this selects for robust alleles.     

Natural Selection and Neutral Evolution Jointly Drive Population Divergence between Alpine and Lowland Ecotypes of the Allopolyploid Plant Anemone multifida (Ranunculaceae)

Population differentiation can be driven in large part by natural selection, but selectively neutral evolution can play a prominent role in shaping patters of population divergence. The decomposition of the evolutionary history of populations into the relative effects of natural selection and selectively neutral evolution enables an understanding of the causes of population divergence and adaptation. In this study, we examined heterogeneous genomic divergence between alpine and lowland ecotypes of the allopolyploid plant, Anemone multifida. Using peak height and dominant AFLP data, we quantified population differentiation at non-outlier (neutral) and outlier loci to determine the potential contribution of natural selection and selectively neutral evolution to population divergence. We found 13 candidate loci, corresponding to 2.7% of loci, with signatures of divergent natural selection between alpine and lowland populations and between alpine populations (Fst  = 0.074–0.445 at outlier loci), but neutral population differentiation was also evident between alpine populations (F_ST  = 0.041–0.095 at neutral loci). By examining population structure at both neutral and outlier loci, we determined that the combined effects of selection and neutral evolution are associated with the divergence of alpine populations, which may be linked to extreme abiotic conditions and isolation between alpine sites. The presence of outlier levels of genetic variation in structured populations underscores the importance of separately analyzing neutral and outlier loci to infer the relative role of divergent natural selection and neutral evolution in population divergence.     

The Molecular Clock of Neutral Evolution Can Be Accelerated or Slowed by Asymmetric Spatial Structure

Over time, a population acquires neutral genetic substitutions as a consequence of random drift. A famous result in population genetics asserts that the rate, K, at which these substitutions accumulate in the population coincides with the mutation rate, u, at which they arise in individuals: K = u. This identity enables genetic sequence data to be used as a “molecular clock” to estimate the timing of evolutionary events. While the molecular clock is known to be perturbed by selection, it is thought that K = u holds very generally for neutral evolution. Here we show that asymmetric spatial population structure can alter the molecular clock rate for neutral mutations, leading to either K<u or K>u. Our results apply to a general class of haploid, asexually reproducing, spatially structured populations. Deviations from K = u occur because mutations arise unequally at different sites and have different probabilities of fixation depending on where they arise. If birth rates are uniform across sites, then K ≤ u. In general, K can take any value between 0 and Nu. Our model can be applied to a variety of population structures. In one example, we investigate the accumulation of genetic mutations in the small intestine. In another application, we analyze over 900 Twitter networks to study the effect of network topology on the fixation of neutral innovations in social evolution.     

Evolution of human immunodeficiency virus under selection and weak recombination

To predict emergence of drug resistance in patients undergoing antiretroviral therapy, we study accumulation of preexisting beneficial alleles in a haploid population of N genomes. The factors included in the model are selection with the coefficient s and recombination with the small rate per genome r (r < s sqrt of k, where k is the average number of less-fit loci per genome). Mutation events are neglected. To describe evolution at a large number of linked loci, we generalize the analytic method we developed recently for an asexual population. We show that the distribution of genomes over the deleterious allele number moves in time as a "solitary wave" that is quasi-deterministic in the middle (on the average) but has stochastic edges. We arrive at a single-locus expression for the average accumulation rate, in which the effects of linkage, recombination, and random drift are all accounted for by the effective selection coefficient s lnNr/lnNs(2)k/r. At large N, the effective selection coefficient approaches the single-locus value s. Below the critical size N(c) approximately 1/r, a population eventually becomes a clone, recombination cannot produce new sequences, and virus evolution stops. Taking into account finite mutation rate predicts a small, finite rate of evolution at N < N(c). We verify the accuracy of the results analytically and by Monte Carlo simulation. On the basis of our findings, we predict that partial depletion of the HIV population by combined anti-retroviral therapy can suppress emergence of drug-resistant strains.     

The Effect of Linkage on Establishment and Survival of Locally Beneficial Mutations

We study invasion and survival of weakly beneficial mutations arising in linkage to an established migration–selection polymorphism. Our focus is on a continent–island model of migration, with selection at two biallelic loci for adaptation to the island environment. Combining branching and diffusion processes, we provide the theoretical basis for understanding the evolution of islands of divergence, the genetic architecture of locally adaptive traits, and the importance of so-called “divergence hitchhiking” relative to other mechanisms, such as “genomic hitchhiking”, chromosomal inversions, or translocations. We derive approximations to the invasion probability and the extinction time of a de novo mutation. Interestingly, the invasion probability is maximized at a nonzero recombination rate if the focal mutation is sufficiently beneficial. If a proportion of migrants carries a beneficial background allele, the mutation is less likely to become established. Linked selection may increase the survival time by several orders of magnitude. By altering the timescale of stochastic loss, it can therefore affect the dynamics at the focal site to an extent that is of evolutionary importance, especially in small populations. We derive an effective migration rate experienced by the weakly beneficial mutation, which accounts for the reduction in gene flow imposed by linked selection. Using the concept of the effective migration rate, we also quantify the long-term effects on neutral variation embedded in a genome with arbitrarily many sites under selection. Patterns of neutral diversity change qualitatively and quantitatively as the position of the neutral locus is moved along the chromosome. This will be useful for population-genomic inference. Our results strengthen the emerging view that physically linked selection is biologically relevant if linkage is tight or if selection at the background locus is strong.     

Widespread Genomic Signatures of Natural Selection in Hominid Evolution

Selection acting on genomic functional elements can be detected by its indirect effects on population diversity at linked neutral sites. To illuminate the selective forces that shaped hominid evolution, we analyzed the genomic distributions of human polymorphisms and sequence differences among five primate species relative to the locations of conserved sequence features. Neutral sequence diversity in human and ancestral hominid populations is substantially reduced near such features, resulting in a surprisingly large genome average diversity reduction due to selection of 19–26% on the autosomes and 12–40% on the X chromosome. The overall trends are broadly consistent with “background selection” or hitchhiking in ancestral populations acting to remove deleterious variants. Average selection is much stronger on exonic (both protein-coding and untranslated) conserved features than non-exonic features. Long term selection, rather than complex speciation scenarios, explains the large intragenomic variation in human/chimpanzee divergence. Our analyses reveal a dominant role for selection in shaping genomic diversity and divergence patterns, clarify hominid evolution, and provide a baseline for investigating specific selective events.     

Chromosome Rearrangements Recovered following Transformation of Neurospora Crassa

Analyses of evolution and maintenance of quantitative genetic variation depend on the mutation models assumed. Currently two polygenic mutation models have been used in theoretical analyses. One is the random walk mutation model and the other is the house-of-cards mutation model. Although in the short term the two models give similar results for the evolution of neutral genetic variation within and between populations, the predictions of the changes of the variation are qualitatively different in the long term. In this paper a more general mutation model, called the regression mutation model, is proposed to bridge the gap of the two models. The model regards the regression coefficient, γ, of the effect of an allele after mutation on the effect of the allele before mutation as a parameter. When γ = 1 or 0, the model becomes the random walk model or the house-of-cards model, respectively. The additive genetic variances within and between populations are formulated for this mutation model, and some insights are gained by looking at the changes of the genetic variances as γ changes. The effects of γ on the statistical test of selection for quantitative characters during macroevolution are also discussed. The results suggest that the random walk mutation model should not be interpreted as a null hypothesis of neutrality for testing against alternative hypotheses of selection during macroevolution because it can potentially allocate too much variation for the change of population means under neutrality.     

Non-Selective Evolution of Growing Populations

Non-selective effects, like genetic drift, are an important factor in modern conceptions of evolution, and have been extensively studied for constant population sizes (Kimura, 1955; Otto and Whitlock, 1997). Here, we consider non-selective evolution in the case of growing populations that are of small size and have varying trait compositions (e.g. after a population bottleneck). We find that, in these conditions, populations never fixate to a trait, but tend to a random limit composition, and that the distribution of compositions “freezes” to a steady state. This final state is crucially influenced by the initial conditions. We obtain these findings from a combined theoretical and experimental approach, using multiple mixed subpopulations of two Pseudomonas putida strains in non-selective growth conditions (Matthijs et al, 2009) as model system. The experimental results for the population dynamics match the theoretical predictions based on the Pólya urn model (Eggenberger and Pólya, 1923) for all analyzed parameter regimes. In summary, we show that exponential growth stops genetic drift. This result contrasts with previous theoretical analyses of non-selective evolution (e.g. genetic drift), which investigated how traits spread and eventually take over populations (fixate) (Kimura, 1955; Otto and Whitlock, 1997). Moreover, our work highlights how deeply growth influences non-selective evolution, and how it plays a key role in maintaining genetic variability. Consequently, it is of particular importance in life-cycles models (Melbinger et al, 2010; Cremer et al, 2011; Cremer et al, 2012) of periodically shrinking and expanding populations.     

Evolution of mutational robustness in an RNA virus

Mutational (genetic) robustness is phenotypic constancy in the face of mutational changes to the genome. Robustness is critical to the understanding of evolution because phenotypically expressed genetic variation is the fuel of natural selection. Nonetheless, the evidence for adaptive evolution of mutational robustness in biological populations is controversial. Robustness should be selectively favored when mutation rates are high, a common feature of RNA viruses. However, selection for robustness may be relaxed under virus co-infection because complementation between virus genotypes can buffer mutational effects. We therefore hypothesized that selection for genetic robustness in viruses will be weakened with increasing frequency of co-infection. To test this idea, we used populations of RNA phage φ6 that were experimentally evolved at low and high levels of co-infection and subjected lineages of these viruses to mutation accumulation through population bottlenecking. The data demonstrate that viruses evolved under high co-infection show relatively greater mean magnitude and variance in the fitness changes generated by addition of random mutations, confirming our hypothesis that they experience weakened selection for robustness. Our study further suggests that co-infection of host cells may be advantageous to RNA viruses only in the short term. In addition, we observed higher mutation frequencies in the more robust viruses, indicating that evolution of robustness might foster less-accurate genome replication in RNA viruses.     

How to Infer Relative Fitness from a Sample of Genomic Sequences

Mounting evidence suggests that natural populations can harbor extensive fitness diversity with numerous genomic loci under selection. It is also known that genealogical trees for populations under selection are quantifiably different from those expected under neutral evolution and described statistically by Kingman’s coalescent. While differences in the statistical structure of genealogies have long been used as a test for the presence of selection, the full extent of the information that they contain has not been exploited. Here we demonstrate that the shape of the reconstructed genealogical tree for a moderately large number of random genomic samples taken from a fitness diverse, but otherwise unstructured, asexual population can be used to predict the relative fitness of individuals within the sample. To achieve this we define a heuristic algorithm, which we test in silico, using simulations of a Wright–Fisher model for a realistic range of mutation rates and selection strength. Our inferred fitness ranking is based on a linear discriminator that identifies rapidly coalescing lineages in the reconstructed tree. Inferred fitness ranking correlates strongly with actual fitness, with a genome in the top 10% ranked being in the top 20% fittest with false discovery rate of 0.1–0.3, depending on the mutation/selection parameters. The ranking also enables us to predict the genotypes that future populations inherit from the present one. While the inference accuracy increases monotonically with sample size, samples of 200 nearly saturate the performance. We propose that our approach can be used for inferring relative fitness of genomes obtained in single-cell sequencing of tumors and in monitoring viral outbreaks.     

DNA Barcoding Works in Practice but Not in (Neutral) Theory

Background

DNA barcode differences within animal species are usually much less than differences among species, making it generally straightforward to match unknowns to a reference library. Here we aim to better understand the evolutionary mechanisms underlying this usual “barcode gap” pattern. We employ avian barcode libraries to test a central prediction of neutral theory, namely, intraspecific variation equals 2 Nµ, where N is population size and µ is mutations per site per generation. Birds are uniquely suited for this task: they have the best-known species limits, are well represented in barcode libraries, and, most critically, are the only large group with documented census population sizes. In addition, we ask if mitochondrial molecular clock measurements conform to neutral theory prediction of clock rate equals µ.

Results

Intraspecific COI barcode variation was uniformly low regardless of census population size (n = 142 species in 15 families). Apparent outliers reflected lumping of reproductively isolated populations or hybrid lineages. Re-analysis of a published survey of cytochrome b variation in diverse birds (n = 93 species in 39 families) further confirmed uniformly low intraspecific variation. Hybridization/gene flow among species/populations was the main limitation to DNA barcode identification.

Conclusions/Significance

To our knowledge, this is the first large study of animal mitochondrial diversity using actual census population sizes and the first to test outliers for population structure. Our finding of universally low intraspecific variation contradicts a central prediction of neutral theory and is not readily accounted for by commonly proposed ad hoc modifications. We argue that the weight of evidence–low intraspecific variation and the molecular clock–indicates neutral evolution plays a minor role in mitochondrial sequence evolution. As an alternate paradigm consistent with empirical data, we propose extreme purifying selection, including at synonymous sites, limits variation within species and continuous adaptive selection drives the molecular clock.     

The Rate of Compensatory Evolution

A two-locus model is presented to analyze the evolution of compensatory mutations occurring in stems of RNA secondary structures. Single mutations are assumed to be deleterious but harmless (neutral) in appropriate combinations. In proceeding under mutation pressure, natural selection and genetic drift from one fitness peak to another one, a population must therefore pass through a valley of intermediate deleterious states of individual fitness. The expected time for this transition is calculated using diffusion theory. The rate of compensatory evolution, k(c), is then defined as the inverse of the expected transition time. When selection against deleterious single mutations is strong, k(c) depends on the recombination fraction r between the two loci. Recombination generally reduces the rate of compensatory evolution because it breaks up favorable combinations of double mutants. For complete linkage, k(c) is given by the rate at which favorable combinations of double mutants are produced by compensatory mutation. For r>0, k(c) decreases exponentially with r. In contrast, k(c) becomes independent of r for weak selection. We discuss the dynamics of evolutionary substitutions of compensatory mutants in relation to WRIGHT's shifting balance theory of evolution and use our results to analyze the substitution process in helices of mRNA secondary structures.     

Evolution of polygenic traits under global vs local adaptation

Observations about the number, frequency, effect size, and genomic distribution of alleles associated with complex traits must be interpreted in light of evolutionary process. These characteristics, which constitute a trait’s genetic architecture, can dramatically affect evolutionary outcomes in applications from agriculture to medicine, and can provide a window into how evolution works. Here, I review theoretical predictions about the evolution of genetic architecture under spatially homogeneous, global adaptation as compared with spatially heterogeneous, local adaptation. Due to the tension between divergent selection and migration, local adaptation can favor “concentrated” genetic architectures that are enriched for alleles of larger effect, clustered in a smaller number of genomic regions, relative to expectations under global adaptation. However, the evolution of such architectures may be limited by many factors, including the genotypic redundancy of the trait, mutation rate, and temporal variability of environment. I review the circumstances in which predictions differ for global vs local adaptation and discuss where progress can be made in testing hypotheses using data from natural populations and lab experiments. As the field of comparative population genomics expands in scope, differences in architecture among traits and species will provide insights into how evolution works, and such differences must be interpreted in light of which kind of selection has been operating.     

Bottleneck Effect on Evolutionary Rate in the Nearly Neutral Mutation Model

Variances of evolutionary rates among lineages in some proteins are larger than those expected from simple Poisson processes. This phenomenon is called overdispersion of the molecular clock. If population size N is constant, the overdispersion is observed only in a limited range of 2Nσ under the nearly neutral mutation model, where σ represents the standard deviation of selection coefficients of new mutants. In this paper, we investigated effects of changing population size on the evolutionary rate by computer simulations assuming the nearly neutral mutation model. The size was changed cyclically between two numbers, N(1) and N(2) (N(1) > N(2)), in the simulations. The overdispersion is observed if 2N(2)σ is less than two and the state of reduced size (bottleneck state) continues for more than ~0.1/u generations, where u is the mutation rate. The overdispersion results mainly because the average fitnesses of only a portion of populations go down when the population size is reduced and only in these populations subsequent advantageous substitutions occur after the population size becomes large. Since the fitness reduction after the bottleneck is stochastic, acceleration of the evolutionary rate does not necessarily occur uniformly among loci. From these results, we argue that the nearly neutral mutation model is a candidate mechanism to explain the overdispersed molecular clock.     

Compensatory Evolution and the Origins of Innovations

Cryptic genetic sequences have attenuated effects on phenotypes. In the classic view, relaxed selection allows cryptic genetic diversity to build up across individuals in a population, providing alleles that may later contribute to adaptation when co-opted—e.g., following a mutation increasing expression from a low, attenuated baseline. This view is described, for example, by the metaphor of the spread of a population across a neutral network in genotype space. As an alternative view, consider the fact that most phenotypic traits are affected by multiple sequences, including cryptic ones. Even in a strictly clonal population, the co-option of cryptic sequences at different loci may have different phenotypic effects and offer the population multiple adaptive possibilities. Here, we model the evolution of quantitative phenotypic characters encoded by cryptic sequences and compare the relative contributions of genetic diversity and of variation across sites to the phenotypic potential of a population. We show that most of the phenotypic variation accessible through co-option would exist even in populations with no polymorphism. This is made possible by a history of compensatory evolution, whereby the phenotypic effect of a cryptic mutation at one site was balanced by mutations elsewhere in the genome, leading to a diversity of cryptic effect sizes across sites rather than across individuals. Cryptic sequences might accelerate adaptation and facilitate large phenotypic changes even in the absence of genetic diversity, as traditionally defined in terms of alternative alleles.     

Statistical Mechanics and Thermodynamics of Viral Evolution

This paper uses methods drawn from physics to study the life cycle of viruses. The paper analyzes a model of viral infection and evolution using the "grand canonical ensemble" and formalisms from statistical mechanics and thermodynamics. Using this approach we enumerate all possible genetic states of a model virus and host as a function of two independent pressures–immune response and system temperature. We prove the system has a real thermodynamic temperature, and discover a new phase transition between a positive temperature regime of normal replication and a negative temperature “disordered” phase of the virus. We distinguish this from previous observations of a phase transition that arises as a function of mutation rate. From an evolutionary biology point of view, at steady state the viruses naturally evolve to distinct quasispecies. This paper also reveals a universal relationship that relates the order parameter (as a measure of mutational robustness) to evolvability in agreement with recent experimental and theoretical work. Given that real viruses have finite length RNA segments that encode proteins which determine virus fitness, the approach used here could be refined to apply to real biological systems, perhaps providing insight into immune escape, the emergence of novel pathogens and other results of viral evolution.     

Immune selection suppresses the emergence of drug resistance in malaria parasites but facilitates its spread

Although drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum typically evolves in regions of low transmission, resistance spreads readily following introduction to regions with a heavier disease burden. This suggests that the origin and the spread of resistance are governed by different processes, and that high transmission intensity specifically impedes the origin. Factors associated with high transmission, such as highly immune hosts and competition within genetically diverse infections, are associated with suppression of resistant lineages within hosts. However, interactions between these factors have rarely been investigated and the specific relationship between adaptive immunity and selection for resistance has not been explored. Here, we developed a multiscale, agent-based model of Plasmodium parasites, hosts, and vectors to examine how host and parasite dynamics shape the evolution of resistance in populations with different transmission intensities. We found that selection for antigenic novelty (“immune selection”) suppressed the evolution of resistance in high transmission settings. We show that high levels of population immunity increased the strength of immune selection relative to selection for resistance. As a result, immune selection delayed the evolution of resistance in high transmission populations by allowing novel, sensitive lineages to remain in circulation at the expense of the spread of a resistant lineage.In contrast, in low transmission settings, we observed that resistant strains were able to sweep to high population prevalence without interference. Additionally, we found that the relationship between immune selection and resistance changed when resistance was widespread. Once resistance was common enough to be found on many antigenic backgrounds, immune selection stably maintained resistant parasites in the population by allowing them to proliferate, even in untreated hosts, when resistance was linked to a novel epitope. Our results suggest that immune selection plays a role in the global pattern of resistance evolution.