Are goose nesting success and lemming cycles linked? Interplay between nest density and predators

The suggested link between lemming cycles and reproductive success of arctic birds is caused by potential effects of varying predation pressure (the Alternative Prey Hypothesis, APH) and protective association with birds of prey (the Nesting Association Hypothesis, NAH). We used data collected over two complete lemming cycles to investigate how fluctuations in lemming density were associated with nesting success of greater snow geese ( Anser caerulescens atlanticus ) in the Canadian High Arctic. We tested predictions of the APH and NAH for geese breeding at low and high densities. Goose nesting success varied from 22% to 91% between years and the main egg predator was the arctic fox ( Alopex lagopus ). Nesting associations with snowy owls ( Nyctea scandiaca ) were observed but only during peak lemming years for geese nesting at low density. Goose nesting success declined as distance from owls increased and reached a plateau at 550 m. Artificial nest experiments indicated that owls can exclude predators from the vicinity of their nests and thus reduce goose egg predation rate. Annual nest failure rate was negatively associated with rodent abundance and was generally highest in low lemming years. This relationship was present even after excluding goose nests under the protective influence of owls. However, nest failure was inversely density-dependent at high breeding density. Thus, annual variations in nest density influenced the synchrony between lemming cycles and oscillations in nesting success. Our results suggest that APH is the main mechanism linking lemming cycles and goose nesting success and that nesting associations during peak lemming years (NAH) can enhance this positive link at the local level. The study also shows that breeding strategies used by birds (the alternative prey) could affect the synchrony between oscillations in avian reproductive success and rodent cycles.     

The breeding productivity of dark-bellied brent geese and curlew sandpipers in relation to changes in the numbers of arctic foxes and lemmings on the Taimyr Peninsula, Siberia —

There were about three-year cycles in the populations of arctic foxes, and the breeding productivities of brent geese and curlew sandpipers on the Taimyr Peninsula, Russia, The populations of arctic foxes and lemmings changed in synchrony. The breeding productivities of the birds tended to be good when the arctic foxes were increasing in numbers and poor when the arctic foxes were decreasing. There was a negative relationship between arctic fox numbers (or occupied lairs) and the breeding productivity of brent geese in the following year. Although there was evidence of wide-spread synchrony In the lemming cycle across the Taimyr Peninsula, some localities showed differences, However, such sites would still have been influenced by the general pattern of fox abundance in the typical tundra zone of the Taimyr Peninsula, where most of the arctic foxes breed and from which extensive movements of foxes occur after a decline in lemming numbers. The results support a prey-switching hypothesis (also known as the alternative prey hypothesis) whereby arctic foxes, and other predators, feed largely on lemmings when these are abundant or increasing, but switch to birds when the lemming population is small or declining. The relationships between arctic foxes, lemmings and brent geese may be further influenced by snowny owls which create fox-exclusion zones around their nests, thus providing safe nesting areas for the geese.     

Seasonal pulses of migratory prey and annual variation in small mammal abundance affect abundance and reproduction by arctic foxes

We examined how large seasonal influxes of migratory prey influenced population dynamics of arctic foxes and how this varied with fluctuations in small mammal (lemming and vole) abundance—the main prey of arctic foxes throughout most of their range. Specifically, we compared how arctic fox abundance, breeding density and litter size varied inside and outside a large goose colony and in relation to annual variation in small mammal abundance. Information-theoretic model selection showed that (1) breeding density and fox abundance were 2–3 times higher inside the colony than they were outside the colony and (2) litter size, breeding density and annual variation in fox abundance in the colony tracked fluctuations in lemming abundance. The influence of lemming abundance on reproduction and abundance of arctic foxes outside the colony was inconclusive, largely because fox densities outside the colony were low, which made it difficult to detect such relationships. Lemming abundance was, thus, the main factor governing reproduction and abundance of arctic foxes in the colony, whereas seasonal influxes of geese and their eggs provided foxes with external subsidies that elevated breeding density and fox abundance above that which lemmings could support. This study highlights (1) the relative importance of migratory prey and other foods on the abundance and reproduction by local consumers and (2) how migratory animals function as vectors of nutrient transfer between distant ecosystems such as Arctic environments and wintering areas by geese thousands of kilometres to the south.     

Constrained by available raptor hosts and islands: density-dependent reproductive success in red-breasted geese

In this paper we aim to explain the distribution of red-breasted geese Branta ruficollis over different nesting habitats. To be safe from land predators red-breasted goose colonies were restricted to i) islands on rivers, ii) cliffs with peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus , and iii) the close proximity of snowy owl Nyctea scandiaca and rough-legged buzzard Buteo lagopus nests. Among years nest site availability varied by fluctuations in numbers of owls and buzzards in association with cycles in lemming abundance, but the total number of goose nests found in the study area did not vary. The distribution of geese, in combination with data on reproductive success, suggested a despotic mechanism: at cliffs, goose numbers were constant among years with an invariably high reproductive success, whereas large fluctuations in numbers on islands coincided with opposite trends in success. Apparently, geese nesting with owls or buzzards moved to the few islands present in the study area during years when these birds of prey were absent. Consequently, in such years the average density of geese on islands was more than twice as high as at cliff colonies (5.4 and 2.3 pairs per ha of foraging habitat, respectively). Colony size at cliffs may have been restricted by territorial behaviour of the geese, though there is evidence that, additionally, the host falcons also limited the number of nesting geese. Apparently rare in closely related species, we observed a negative density-dependent effect on reproductive success during the nest phase, and attribute this to limited food resources, reinforced by the high frequency of territorial interactions. This leads to the conclusion that, in addition to predation pressure, nesting density is an important agent in the link between lemming cycles and goose breeding success.     

Breeding of waders (Charadrii) and Brent Geese Branta bernicla bernicla at Pronchishcheva Lake, northeastern Taimyr, Russia, in a peak and a decreasing lemming year

During summer 1991, lemmings occurred at high densities in Arctic tundra at Pronchishcheva Lake in the northeastern Taimyr Peninsula, whereas, in 1992, lemming densities were substantially lower and decreased further during the summer. In 1991, avian predators such as Snowy Owls Nyctea scandiaca, gulls and skuas bred well; Arctic foxes Alopex lagopus were rarely observed in the study area but bred in the immediate vicinity. In both years there was a late thaw, but this did not deter breeding by birds. The insect food supply for waders showed similar patterns of abundance in both years. In 1991, 73 nests of nine species of wader were found within a 14-km² study area, and Dark-bellied Brent Geese Branta bernicla bernicla nested in association with Snowy Owls. The overall density of wader nests was estimated to be 7 per km². Clutches disappeared at only two wader nests and no Brent Goose nests, and the Mayfield estimate of the daily probability of predation for waders was 0.0022. In contrast, the daily probability of predation was 0.20 in 1992, when there was a similar breeding density of waders. Arctic foxes were seen searching for food daily within the study area, and fox droppings were found associated with nests taken by predators. The predicted scenarios for peak and decreasing lemming years (the Roselaar-Summers hypothesis), i.e. low predation and high nest success in the peak year and high predation and low nest success in the decreasing year, therefore occurred.     

Benefiting from a migratory prey: spatio-temporal patterns in allochthonous subsidization of an Arctic predator

1.?Flows of nutrients and energy across ecosystem boundaries have the potential to subsidize consumer populations and modify the dynamics of food webs, but how spatio-temporal variations in autochthonous and allochthonous resources affect consumers' subsidization remains largely unexplored. 2.?We studied spatio-temporal patterns in the allochthonous subsidization of a predator living in a relatively simple ecosystem. We worked on Bylot Island (Nunavut, Canada), where arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus L.) feed preferentially on lemmings (Lemmus trimucronatus and Dicrostonyx groenlandicus Traill), and alternatively on colonial greater snow geese (Anser caerulescens atlanticus L.). Geese migrate annually from their wintering grounds (where they feed on farmlands and marshes) to the Canadian Arctic, thus generating a strong flow of nutrients and energy across ecosystem boundaries. 3.?We examined the influence of spatial variations in availability of geese on the diet of fox cubs (2003-2005) and on fox reproductive output (1996-2005) during different phases of the lemming cycle. 4.?Using stable isotope analysis and a simple statistical routine developed to analyse the outputs of a multisource mixing model (SIAR), we showed that the contribution of geese to the diet of arctic fox cubs decreased with distance from the goose colony. 5.?The probability that a den was used for reproduction by foxes decreased with distance from the subsidized goose colony and increased with lemming abundance. When lemmings were highly abundant, the effect of distance from the colony disappeared. The goose colony thus generated a spatial patterning of reproduction probability of foxes, while the lemming cycle generated a strong temporal variation of reproduction probability of foxes. 6.?This study shows how the input of energy owing to the large-scale migration of prey affects the functional and reproductive responses of an opportunistic consumer, and how this input is spatially and temporally modulated through the foraging behaviour of the consumer. Thus, perspectives of both landscape and foraging ecology are needed to fully resolve the effects of subsidies on animal demographic processes and population dynamics.     

Prolonging the arctic pulse: long-term exploitation of cached eggs by arctic foxes when lemmings are scarce

1. Many ecosystems are characterized by pulses of dramatically higher than normal levels of foods (pulsed resources) to which animals often respond by caching foods for future use. However, the extent to which animals use cached foods and how this varies in relation to fluctuations in other foods is poorly understood in most animals. 2. Arctic foxes Alopex lagopus (L.) cache thousands of eggs annually at large goose colonies where eggs are often superabundant during the nesting period by geese. We estimated the contribution of cached eggs to arctic fox diets in spring and autumn, when geese were not present in the study area, by comparing stable isotope ratios (delta(13)C and delta(15)N) of fox tissues with those of their foods using a multisource mixing model in Program IsoSource. 3. The contribution of cached eggs to arctic fox diets was inversely related to collared lemming Dicrostonyx groenlandicus (Traill) abundance; the contribution of cached eggs to overall fox diets increased from < 28% in years when collared lemmings were abundant to 30-74% in years when collared lemmings were scarce. 4. Further, arctic foxes used cached eggs well into the following spring (almost 1 year after eggs were acquired) - a pattern that differs from that of carnivores generally storing foods for only a few days before consumption. 5. This study showed that long-term use of eggs that were cached when geese were superabundant at the colony in summer varied with fluctuations in collared lemming abundance (a key component in arctic fox diets throughout most of their range) and suggests that cached eggs functioned as a buffer when collared lemmings were scarce.     

Predator behaviour and predation risk in the heterogeneous Arctic environment

1. Habitat heterogeneity and predator behaviour can strongly affect predator-prey interactions but these factors are rarely considered simultaneously, especially when systems encompass multiple predators and prey. 2. In the Arctic, greater snow geese Anser caerulescens atlanticus L. nest in two structurally different habitats: wetlands that form intricate networks of water channels, and mesic tundra where such obstacles are absent. In this heterogeneous environment, goose eggs are exposed to two types of predators: the arctic fox Vulpes lagopus L. and a diversity of avian predators. We hypothesized that, contrary to birds, the hunting ability of foxes would be impaired by the structurally complex wetland habitat, resulting in a lower predation risk for goose eggs. 3. In addition, lemmings, the main prey of foxes, show strong population cycles. We thus further examined how their fluctuations influenced the interaction between habitat heterogeneity and fox predation on goose eggs. 4. An experimental approach with artificial nests suggested that foxes were faster than avian predators to find unattended goose nests in mesic tundra whereas the reverse was true in wetlands. Foxes spent 3.5 times more time between consecutive attacks on real goose nests in wetlands than in mesic tundra. Their attacks on goose nests were also half as successful in wetlands than in mesic tundra whereas no difference was found for avian predators. 5. Nesting success in wetlands (65%) was higher than in mesic tundra (56%) but the difference between habitats increased during lemming crashes (15%) compared to other phases of the cycle (5%). Nests located at the edge of wetland patches were also less successful than central ones, suggesting a gradient in accessibility of goose nests in wetlands for foxes. 6. Our study shows that the structural complexity of wetlands decreases predation risk from foxes but not avian predators in arctic-nesting birds. Our results also demonstrate that cyclic lemming populations indirectly alter the spatial distribution of productive nests due to a complex interaction between habitat structure, prey-switching and foraging success of foxes.     

Brent Geese (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Branta bernicla</Emphasis>) Breeding Associations with Pomarine Skuas (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Stercorarius pomarinus</Emphasis>) on the Mainland Tundra

This article is based on data that were collected in the years 2000?2007, 2012, and 2014 in the vicinities of Medusa Bay (73°21′ N, 80°32′ E) and in 2002 at the mouth of the Uboynaya River (73°37′ N, 82°10′ E), in the northwestern part of the Taimyr Peninsula. In years when the abundance of lemmings is high, brent geese may breed not only near nests of snowy owls and rough-legged buzzards, but also sparsely in the mainland tundra, often without any protection. Some such nests are successfully incubated until hatching. A considerable part of these dispersed nests appears to be associated with a nest or territory of pomarine skuas that are able to scare away the main tundra predator, the arctic fox, to a distance of about 500 m from their nests. Brent geese that breed within this distance to theses nests gain additional protection against arctic foxes. However, brent geese do not display a tendency to place their nests closer to pomarine skua nests. The mean distance from geese nests to pomarine skua nests or centers of their territories comprised 2/3 of the mean distance between nests of pomarine skuas and turned out to be quite stable over the years and in two different tundra areas.     

Rough-Legged Buzzards,Arctic Foxes and Red Foxes in a Tundra Ecosystem without Rodents

Small rodents with multi-annual population cycles strongly influence the dynamics of food webs, and in particular predator-prey interactions, across most of the tundra biome. Rodents are however absent from some arctic islands, and studies on performance of arctic predators under such circumstances may be very instructive since rodent cycles have been predicted to collapse in a warming Arctic. Here we document for the first time how three normally rodent-dependent predator species—rough-legged buzzard, arctic fox and red fox – perform in a low-arctic ecosystem with no rodents. During six years (in 2006-2008 and 2011-2013) we studied diet and breeding performance of these predators in the rodent-free Kolguev Island in Arctic Russia. The rough-legged buzzards, previously known to be a small rodent specialist, have only during the last two decades become established on Kolguev Island. The buzzards successfully breed on the island at stable low density, but with high productivity based on goslings and willow ptarmigan as their main prey – altogether representing a novel ecological situation for this species. Breeding density of arctic fox varied from year to year, but with stable productivity based on mainly geese as prey. The density dynamic of the arctic fox appeared to be correlated with the date of spring arrival of the geese. Red foxes breed regularly on the island but in very low numbers that appear to have been unchanged over a long period – a situation that resemble what has been recently documented from Arctic America. Our study suggests that the three predators found breeding on Kolguev Island possess capacities for shifting to changing circumstances in low-arctic ecosystem as long as other small - medium sized terrestrial herbivores are present in good numbers.     

Habitat selection,reproduction and predation of wintering lemmings in the Arctic

Snow cover has dramatic effects on the structure and functioning of Arctic ecosystems in winter. In the tundra, the subnivean space is the primary habitat of wintering small mammals and may be critical for their survival and reproduction. We have investigated the effects of snow cover and habitat features on the distributions of collared lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) and brown lemming (Lemmus trimucronatus) winter nests, as well as on their probabilities of reproduction and predation by stoats (Mustela erminea) and arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus). We sampled 193 lemming winter nests and measured habitat features at all of these nests and at random sites at two spatial scales. We also monitored overwinter ground temperature at a subsample of nest and random sites. Our results demonstrate that nests were primarily located in areas with high micro-topography heterogeneity, steep slopes, deep snow cover providing thermal protection (reduced daily temperature fluctuations) and a high abundance of mosses. The probability of reproduction increased in collared lemming nests at low elevation and in brown lemming nests with high availability of some graminoid species. The probability of predation by stoats was density dependent and was higher in nests used by collared lemmings. Snow cover did not affect the probability of predation of lemming nests by stoats, but deep snow cover limited predation attempts by arctic foxes. We conclude that snow cover plays a key role in the spatial structure of wintering lemming populations and potentially in their population dynamics in the Arctic.     

Functional and numerical responses of four lemming predators in high arctic Greenland

The high‐arctic tundra ecosystem has the world's simplest vertebrate predator–prey community, with only four predators preying upon one rodent species, the collared lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus). We document the functional and numerical responses of all the four predators in NE Greenland. Using these data, we assess the impact of predation on the dynamics of the collared lemming with a 4 yr cycle and >100‐fold difference between maximum and minimum densities. All predator species feed mostly (>90%) on lemmings when lemming density is >1 ha^?1, but the shapes of the predators’ responses vary greatly. The snowy owl (Nyctea scandiaca) is present and breeds only when lemming densities at snowmelt are >2 ha^?1, giving rise to a step‐like numerical response. The long‐tailed skua (Stercorarius longicaudus) has a type III functional response and shifts from alternate food (mainly berries and insects) to lemmings with increasing lemming density. The skua surpasses all the other predators in summer by its total response. The type III functional response of the Arctic fox (Alopex lagopus) starts to increase at much lower lemming densities than the responses of the avian predators, but it has only a weak numerical response. Finally, the stoat (Mustela erminea) is the most specialized predator and the only one with a clearly delayed numerical response. According to their specific functional and numerical responses, each predator plays a key role at some point of the lemming cycle, but only the stoat has the potential to drive the lemming cycle. Stoat predation is greatly reduced in the winter preceding the lemming peak, and it reaches a maximum in the winter preceding the lowest lemming summer density. Stoat predation appears to maintain low lemming densities for at least two successive years. Our study provides empirical support for the specialist predator hypothesis about small mammal population cycles.     

Dark-bellied brent geese Branta b. bernicla breeding near snowy owl Nyctea scandiaca nests lay more and larger eggs

Several studies have demonstrated that snowy owls Nyctea scandiaca defend an area around their nests against predators, hereby inadvertently creating safe havens for breeding dark-bellied brent geese Branta b. bernicla . However, studies investigating brent goose breeding ecology within the predator-exclusion zones of the snowy owls are absent. In 1999 and 2005, years of high lemming abundance Lemmus sibiricus and Dicrostonyx torquatus , brent geese were primarily breeding in association with snowy owls in the Medusa river catchment on western Taimyr, Russia. Goose nest failure, either as a result of nest abandonment by the adult birds or of nest depredation, increased with increasing distance from the owl nests. Within the brent goose colonies, clutch size as well as egg size increased with decreasing distance from the snowy owl nest, indicating an increasing adult quality closer to owl nests. However, as a result of the abandonment of eggs and goslings, the increasing clutch size did not result in a higher nest success during this study. Apparently brent geese compete for breeding sites close to owl nests, but details of this process remain unknown.     

White-fronted and bean geese breeding near snowy owls,peregrine falcons,and rough-legged buzzards at the Taimyr Peninsula

Studies were carried out in 2000–2007 near Medusa Bay (73°21′N, 80°32′ E) and along the Agapa River (from 70°11′N, 86°15′ E. down to the mouth 71°26′ N, 89°13′ E), in the northwestern and central parts of the Taimyr Peninsula. White-fronted goose nests are usually spread in the tundra or placed in 1–3 nest colonies near nests or staging points of snowy owls, peregrine falcons, or rough-legged buzzards. The intent of white-fronted geese to breed near birds of prey or owls increases sharply when arctic fox numbers are high. In the area near Medusa Bay, white-fronted geese nest much closer to peregrine falcon nests than in the area along the Agra River. At the latter location, white-fronted geese lose the competition to red-breasted geese, which are more numerous here. Bean geese, in spite of their greater size and ability to protect their nests against arctic foxes, really tend to breed near peregrine falcons or buzzards, where they manage to compete with red-breasted geese.     

Pulses of movement across the sea ice: population connectivity and temporal genetic structure in the arctic fox

Lemmings are involved in several important functions in the Arctic ecosystem. The Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) can be divided into two discrete ecotypes: “lemming foxes” and “coastal foxes”. Crashes in lemming abundance can result in pulses of “lemming fox” movement across the Arctic sea ice and immigration into coastal habitats in search for food. These pulses can influence the genetic structure of the receiving population. We have tested the impact of immigration on the genetic structure of the “coastal fox” population in Svalbard by recording microsatellite variation in seven loci for 162 Arctic foxes sampled during the summer and winter over a 5-year period. Genetic heterogeneity and temporal genetic shifts, as inferred by STRUCTURE simulations and deviations from Hardy–Weinberg proportions, respectively, were recorded. Maximum likelihood estimates of movement as well as STRUCTURE simulations suggested that both immigration and genetic mixture are higher in Svalbard than in the neighbouring “lemming fox” populations. The STRUCTURE simulations and AMOVA revealed there are differences in genetic composition of the population between summer and winter seasons, indicating that immigrants are not present in the reproductive portion of the Svalbard population. Based on these results, we conclude that Arctic fox population structure varies with time and is influenced by immigration from neighbouring populations. The lemming cycle is likely an important factor shaping Arctic fox movement across sea ice and the subsequent population genetic structure, but is also likely to influence local adaptation to the coastal habitat and the prevalence of diseases.     

Brent goose colonies near snowy owls: Internest distances in relation to abundance of lemmings and arctic foxes

Brent goose colonies around snowy owl nests have been studied near Medusa Bay (73°21′ N, 80°32′ E) and in the lower reaches of the Uboinaya River (73°37′N, 82°10′E), the northwestern Taimyr Peninsula, from 1999 to 2006. All brent nests within 680 m from an owl nest have been regarded as an individual colony. The results show that the area of the colony is always larger than the protected area around the owl nest. In years of low abundance of lemmings, brent geese nest generally closer to the owl nest than in years of high abundance. When arctic foxes are abundant, however, brent geese nest significantly closer to owls than when the foxes are scarce, irrespective of lemming abundance. The mechanism of brent colony formation around owl nests is based on a number of stimuli.     

Local variation in arctic fox abundance on Svalbard,Norway

Arctic fox (Alopex lagopus) numbers vary greatly, with cyclic fluctuations often associated with fluctuations in microtine rodents. However, in areas where small prey mammals are absent, such as Iceland and Svalbard, such cyclic fluctuations are lacking. Annual fluctuations in the density of the arctic fox population on the Brøggerhalvøya peninsula and Kongsfjorden region on Svalbard, Norway, were studied from 1990 to 2001 by using indices of fox abundance. All indices showed similar trends; fox numbers were low in 1990, increased until 1995 whereupon they decreased sharply, before increasing again and levelling off in 2001. Increasing numbers of foxes during the first part of the study paralleled increasing numbers of Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) carcasses in winter and increasing numbers of nesting barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) in summer. This study shows that the number of arctic foxes varies greatly even in areas without fluctuating microtine rodents.     

Indirect effects of lemming cycles on sandpiper dynamics: 50 years of counts from southern Sweden

The bird-lemming hypothesis postulates that breeding success of tundra-nesting geese and waders in Siberia follows the cyclic pattern of lemming populations, as a result of predators switching from lemmings to birds when the lemming population crashes. We present 50 years of data on constant-effort catches of red knot Calidris canutus and curlew sandpiper C. ferruginea at an autumn migratory stopover site (Ottenby) at the Baltic Sea, supplemented with literature data on winter censuses of dark-bellied brent goose Branta b. bernicla and white-fronted goose Anser albifrons in northwestern Europe, and waders in Germany and Southern Africa. Number and proportion of juveniles in these bird populations (both our own and literature data) were compared with an index of predation pressure (calculated from the abundance of lemmings on the Taimyr peninsula), and climate indices for the North Eurasia and the North Atlantic regions. The index of predation pressure correlated significantly with the number of juveniles of red knot and curlew sandpiper, but not with number of adults. Also, this index correlated with the reproductive performance of geese and waders reported in the literature. Fourier analysis revealed a significant deviation from random noise with the maximum spectral density at the period length of 3 years for number of juvenile red knots and curlew sandpipers captured at Ottenby, abundance of lemmings, reproduction in arctic fox Alopex lagopus, and reproductive performance in geese on the Siberian tundra. Also, the date of passage at Ottenby for adult red knot and curlew sandpiper showed a spectral density peak at a period length of 3 years, the latter species also showing a peak at a period length of 5-6 years. Passage dates for adult red knot and curlew sandpiper were earlier in years of high predation pressure compared with years of low predation pressure. The fluctuations in reproductive success of the studied Siberian goose and wader species appear to be primarily influenced by biotic factors in the breeding area, rather than by abiotic factors, such as climate oscillations. Annual variations in migratory arctic bird populations may have far reaching effects in habitats along their migration routes and in their wintering areas. We suggest a link between lemming cyclicity in the Northern Hemisphere and predation pressure on Southern Hemisphere benthos, in which the signal is carried between continents by long distance migrating waders.     

Climatic effects on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of an arctic-nesting goose species

Climate warming is pronounced in the Arctic and migratory birds are expected to be among the most affected species. We examined the effects of local and regional climatic variations on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of greater snow geese ( Chen caerulescens atlantica ), a migratory species nesting in the Canadian Arctic. We used a long-term dataset based on the monitoring of 5447 nests and the measurements of 19 234 goslings over 16 years (1989–2004) on Bylot Island. About 50% of variation in the reproductive phenology of individuals was explained by spring climatic factors. High mean temperatures and, to a lesser extent, low snow cover in spring were associated with an increase in nest density and early egg-laying and hatching dates. High temperature in spring and high early summer rainfall were positively related to nesting success. These effects may result from a reduction in egg predation rate when the density of nesting geese is high and when increased water availability allows females to stay close to their nest during incubation recesses. Summer brood loss and production of young at the end of the summer increased when values of the summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) index were either very positive (low temperatures) or very negative (high temperatures), indicating that these components of the breeding success were most influenced by the regional summer climate. Gosling mass and size near fledging were reduced in years with high spring temperatures. This effect is likely due to a reduced availability of high quality food in years with early spring, either due to food depletion resulting from high brood density or a mismatch between hatching date of goslings and the timing of the peak of plant quality. Our analysis suggests that climate warming should advance the reproductive phenology of geese, but that high spring temperatures and extreme values of the summer AO index may decrease their reproductive success up to fledging.     

Predator–prey relationships: arctic foxes and lemmings

1. The number of breeding dens and litter sizes of arctic foxes Alopex lagopus were recorded and the diet of the foxes was analysed during a ship-based expedition to 17 sites along the Siberian north coast. At the same time the cyclic dynamics of co-existing lemming species were examined.
2. The diet of arctic foxes was dominated by the Siberian lemming Lemmus sibiricus (on one site the Norwegian lemming L. lemmus ), followed by the collared lemming Dicrostonyx torquatus .
3. The examined Lemmus sibiricus populations were in different phases of the lemming cycle as determined by age profiles and population densities.
4. The numerical response of arctic foxes to varying densities of Lemmus had a time lag of 1 year, producing a pattern of limit cycles in lemming–arctic fox interactions. Arctic fox litter sizes showed no time lag, but a linear relation to Lemmus densities. We found no evidence for a numerical response to population density changes in Dicrostonyx .
5. The functional or dietary response of arctic foxes followed a type II curve for Lemmus , but a type III response curve for Dicrostonyx .
6. Arctic foxes act as resident specialist for Lemmus and may increase the amplitude and period of their population cycles. For Dicrostonyx , on the other hand, arctic foxes act as generalists which suggests a capacity to dampen oscillations.