Density-Dependent Selection Incorporating Intraspecific Competition. II. a Diploid Model

A diploid model is introduced and analyzed in which intraspecific competition is incorporated within the context of density-regulated selection. It is assumed that each genotype has a unique carrying capacity corresponding to the equilibrium population size when only that type is present. Each genotypic fitness at a single diallelic autosomal locus is a decreasing function of a distinctive effective population size perceived as a result of intraspecific competition. The resulting fitnesses are both density and frequency dependent with selective advantage determined by a balance between genotypic carrying capacity and sensitivity to intraspecific competition. A major finding is that intergenotypic interactions may allow genetic variation to be more easily maintained than in the corresponding model of purely density-dependent selection. In addition, numerical study confirms the possible existence of multiple interior equilibria and that neither overdominance in fitness nor carrying capacity is necessary for stability. The magnitude of the equilibrium population size and optimization principles are also discussed.     

The Evolutionary Optimality of Oscillatory and Chaotic Dynamics in Simple Population Models

The problem is considered of whether natural selection favors genotypes characterized by oscillatory or chaotic population dynamics. This is done with reference to two simple one-dimensional models, which display a variety of dynamical patterns according to the different values of their parameters: the semelparous and iteroparous Ricker models. To lind the optimal genotype (or genotypes) within a given feasibility set, the concept of Continuously Stable Strategy (CSS) and a haploid model of competition between genotypes are used. The parameters subject to evolution are the intrinsic finite rate of increase and respectively the juvenile mortality in the semelparous model and the adult survival in the iteroparous one. In the semelparous case a single feasible CSS exists, while in the other case more than one CSS might exist. The dynamical nature of the optimal genotype (stable equilibrium, stable sustained oscillations or chaos) is basically determined by the shape of the set of feasibility for the parameters defining each genotype. However, if the feasibility set is drawn at random, the probability that the corresponding optimal genotype (or genotypes) be oscillatory or chaotic is quite low. This result, however, might not hold with more complex models.     

A Monte Carlo simulation model for studying evolution in age-structured populations

This model provides for any number of genotypes defined by age-specific survival and fecundity rates in a population with completely overlapping generations and growing under the control of density-governing functions affecting survival or fecundity. It is tested in situations involving two alleles at one locus. Nonselection populations at Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium obey the ecogenetic law; i.e., each genotype follows Lotka's law regarding rate of increase and stable age distribution as if it were an independent true-breeding population. Populations experiencing age- and density-independent selection approximate this situation, and the changes in gene frequency are predicted by relative fitnesses bases on λ, the finite rate of increase of the genotypes. Polymorphic gene equilibria occurring at steady-state population sizes are determined by fitnesses based on R, the net reproductive rate. In examples involving differences in generation time produced by age-dependent differences in fecundity, the allele associated with longer generation time may be favored or opposed by selection, depending on whether the density-governing factor controlling population size affects survival or fecundity. If such genotypes have similar R's, a genetic equilibrium may be established if the population is governed by a density function acting upon fecundity. Received: August 23, 1999 / Accepted: July 13, 2000     

Biodiversity,habitat area,resource growth rate and interference competition

For the majority of species, per capita growth rate correlates negatively with population density. Although the popular logistic equation for the growth of a single species incorporates this intraspecific competition, multi-trophic models often ignore self-limitation of the consumers. Instead, these models often assume that the predator-prey interactions are purely exploitative, employing simple Lotka-Volterra forms in which consumer species lack intraspecific competition terms. Here we show that intraspecific interference competition can account for the stable coexistence of many consumer species on a single resource in a homogeneous environment. In addition, our work suggests a potential mechanism for field observations demonstrating that habitat area and resource productivity strongly positively correlate to biodiversity. In the special case of a modified Lotka-Volterra model describing multiple predators competing for a single resource, we present an ordering procedure that determines the deterministic fate of each specific consumer. Moreover, we find that the growth rate of a resource species is proportional to the maximum number of consumer species that resource can support. In the limiting case, when the resource growth rate is infinite, a model with intraspecific interference reduces to the conventional Lotka-Volterra competition model where there can be an unlimited number of coexisting consumers. This highlights the crucial role that resource growth rates may play in promoting coexistence of consumer species.     

Variation in and correlation between intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity

Intrinsic population growth rate and density dependence are fundamental components of population dynamics. Theory suggests that variation in and correlations between these parameters among patches within a population can influence overall population size, but data on the degree of variation and correlation are rare. Replicate populations of a specialist aphid (Chaetosiphon fragaefolii) were followed on 11 genotypes of host plant (Fragaria chiloensis) in the greenhouse. Population models fit to these census data provide estimates of intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity for aphid populations on each plant genotype. Growth rate and carrying capacity varied substantially among plant genotypes, and these two parameters were not significantly correlated. These results support the existence of spatial variation in population dynamic parameters; data on frequency distributions and correlations of these parameters in natural populations are needed for evaluation of the importance of variation in growth rate and density dependence for population dynamics in the field.     

Density dependent selection in parthenogenetic and self-mating populations

The consequences of density dependent selection on genetically heterogeneous, diploid populations reproducing by self-mating or various parthenogenetic mechanisms is investigated. A logistic fitness function that depends upon both the genotype of an individual and the density of the population is used. Such a fitness function simultaneously determines the population size and the genotype frequencies. The equilibrium solutions to a one locus and two locus model are given as well as some generalizations to n loci and nonlogistic fitness functions. Conditions are found that maintain several different genotypes simultaneously in the equilibrium population. The interaction of such selection with the genetic mechanisms which determine mode of reproduction in parthenogenetic populations is also discussed.     

Density- and Frequency-Dependent Selection at the Mdh-2 Locus in DROSOPHILA PSEUDOOBSCURA

We have studied differences in the number of Drosophila pseudoobscura produced in a culture when the flies differ with respect to two alleles (F and S) at the Mdh-2 locus, which codes for a malate dehydrogenase enzyme. The studies were done at low and at high density in two- and three-genotype combinations (S/S, F/F and S/F), with one-genotype cultures as controls.——Density affects the fitness of the Mdh-2 genotypes. Different genotypes are differently affected, and the genotype of the competitors also makes a difference on the fitness of a given genotype. When three genotypes are present in a culture, particularly at high density, intergenotypic competition is less intense than intragenotypic competition at several frequency combinations. That is, there is "overcompensation": the three genotypes together exploit the environmental resources better than one genotype alone.—The fitness of the genotypes is frequency dependent in both two-genotype and three-genotype combinations. An inverse relationship between frequency and fitness is observed at high density. This may lead to a stable polymorphism, because the fitness of a genotype increases as its frequency decreases.—Forty independent strains, sampled from a natural population, were used in the experiments. This ensures that more than 95% of the variation present in the genome in the natural population is also present is the experimental cultures. It also ensures that the genetic background of the Mdh-2 alleles is randomized in the same way as it is in nature. However, the possibility remains that Mdh-2 alleles in nature are nonrandomly associated with alleles at closely linked loci. If linkage disequilibrium is present in the experiments because it exists in nature, then the observed effects (such as frequency-dependent selection) would affect the Mdh-2 locus in nature as well.     

Spatial patterns and travelling waves in population genetics.

We consider a reaction-diffusion equation to model a multi-allelic, single locus problem. The population can migrate in a homogeneous region and the diffusion rates depend upon the genotype. It is shown that if there is an equilibrium point with all alleles present and if this polymorphism is stable for the classical reaction system then it is also stable for the reaction-diffusion equation. Also a simplified model is used to investigate which allele will spread in the two-allele case. Alleles which are associated with large fitness and small dispersion do best.     

On the stability of polymorphic host-pathogen populations

The stability of populations of hosts and micro-parasites is investigated where each consists of n varieties that are equal in every respect except that each strain of parasites can infect only one specific strain of hosts and none of the others. Collectively the host strains are limited by a carrying capacity and through this limitation the host populations interact with each other. Hosts are assumed to reproduce asexually or such that different strains do not mate or are not fertile if they do. When the excess death rate caused by the pathogenic parasites is sufficiently large, then the host population is regulated to an equilibrium below the carrying capacity of the environment. This polymorphic equilibrium is shown to be locally asymptotically stable. When one of the parasite strains is absent, then all the other strains die out asymptotically. However, if host resistance to all infectious strains of parasites is achieved at the cost of a lower birthrate of the resistant host strain, then, if a certain condition for the various parameters is satisfied, stable coexistence between infected and resistant hosts is possible. There are many examples where susceptibility and resistance of hosts depends upon the conformation of specific proteins that are involved in host-parasite interactions and hence upon alleles at genetic loci that code for these proteins. We propose that polymorphism in wildtype populations which has been the subject of much theorizing in mathematical genetics may be due to host-pathogen interactions. Our model suggests how a polymorphic population, once established, can remain polymorphic indefinitely.     

Temperature-driven regime shifts in the dynamics of size-structured populations

Global warming impacts virtually all biota and ecosystems. Many of these impacts are mediated through direct effects of temperature on individual vital rates. Yet how this translates from the individual to the population level is still poorly understood, hampering the assessment of global warming impacts on population structure and dynamics. Here, we study the effects of temperature on intraspecific competition and cannibalism and the population dynamical consequences in a size-structured fish population. We use a physiologically structured consumer-resource model in which we explicitly model the temperature dependencies of the consumer vital rates and the resource population growth rate. Our model predicts that increased temperature decreases resource density despite higher resource growth rates, reflecting stronger intraspecific competition among consumers. At a critical temperature, the consumer population dynamics destabilize and shift from a stable equilibrium to competition-driven generation cycles that are dominated by recruits. As a consequence, maximum age decreases and the proportion of younger and smaller-sized fish increases. These model predictions support the hypothesis of decreasing mean body sizes due to increased temperatures. We conclude that in size-structured fish populations, global warming may increase competition, favor smaller size classes, and induce regime shifts that destabilize population and community dynamics.     

Evolution and intraspecific exploitative competition I. One-locus theory for small additive gene effects

Using the model of exploitative competition of R. H. MacArthur and R. Levins (1967, Amer. Natur. 101, 377–385), evolution at a gene locus which influences the niche position is considered. The locus has multiple alleles, and the contributions of the alleles to the genotypic value are additive. The resource spectrum and the utilization functions of the genotypes are assumed to be Gaussian. Evolution will make the mode of the niche converge to the resource optimum, as long as the allele contributions are small compared to the distance between the mode of the niche and the resource optimum. When this distance is of the same order of magnitude as the allele contributions, then the globally stable equilibrium will maintain at most two alleles in the population, unless the allele contributions are large. Classical overdominance is not needed to maintain polymorphism. This result predicts high linkage disequilibrium in similar multilocus models. It is concluded that intraspecific competition can be a powerful force in maintaining two-allele polymorphisms, and that it can maintain high linkage disequilibrium among closely linked loci.     

Continuous-discrete models of the dynamics of an isolated population and of 2 competing species

The paper presents the analysis of various mathematical models for dynamics of isolated population and for competition between two species. It is assumed that mortality is continuous and birth of individuals of new generations takes place in certain fixed moments. Influence of winter upon the population dynamics and conditions of classic discrete model "deduction" of population dynamics (in particular, Moran-Ricker and Hassel's models) are investigated. Dynamic regimes of models under various assumptions about the birth and death rates upon the population states are also examined. Analysis of models of isolated population dynamics with nonoverlapping generations showed the density changes regularly if the birth rate is constant. Moreover, there exists a unique global stable level and population size stabilizes asymptotically at this equilibrium, i.e. cycle and chaotic regimes in various discrete models depend on correlation between individual productivity and population state in previous time. When the correlation is exponential upon mean population size the discrete Hassel model is realized. Modification of basis model, based on the assumption that during winter survival/death changes are constant, showed that population size at global level is stable. Generally, the dependence of population rate upon "winter parameters" has nonlinear character. Nonparametric models of competition between two species does not vary if the individual productivity is constant. In a phase space there are several stable stationary states and population stabilizes at one or other level asymptotically. So, in discrete models of competition between two species oscillation can be explained by dependence of population growth rate on the population size at previous times.     

Which species will succesfully track climate change? The influence of intraspecific competition and density dependent dispersal on range shifting dynamics

Understanding the ability of species to shift their geographic range is of considerable importance given the current period of rapid climate change. Furthermore, a greater understanding of the spatial population dynamics underlying range shifting is required to complement the advances made in climate niche modelling. A simulation model is developed which incorporates three key features that have been largely overlooked in studies of range shifting dynamics: the form of intraspecific competition, density dependent dispersal and the transient dynamics of habitat patches. The results show that the exact shape of the response depends critically on both local and patch dynamics. Species whose intraspecific competition is contest based are more vulnerable than those whose competition is scramble based. Contesters are especially sensitive when combined with density dependent dispersal. Species living in patches whose carrying capacity grows slowly are also susceptible to rapid shifts of environmental conditions. A complementary analytic approach further highlights the importance of intraspecific competition.     

Competitive divergence in non-random mating populations

A haploid model of frequency-dependent selection and assortative mating is introduced and analyzed for the case of a single multiallelic autosomal locus. Frequency-dependent selection is due to intraspecific competition mediated by a quantitative character under stabilizing or directional selection. Assortment is induced by the same trait. We analyze the equilibrium structure and the local stability properties of all possible equilibria. In the limit of weak selection we obtain global stability properties by finding a Lyapunov function. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the maintenance of polymorphism in terms of the strength of stabilizing selection, intraspecific competition and assortment. Our results also include criteria for the ability of extreme types to invade the population. Furthermore, we study the occurrence of disruptive selection and provide necessary and sufficient conditions for intraspecific divergence to occur.     

RUNAWAY EVOLUTION TO SELF-EXTINCTION UNDER ASYMMETRICAL COMPETITION

We analyze a popular model of the evolution of traits related to performance in exploitative competition. This model has previously been used to explain a mechanism by which interspecific competition can cause taxon cycles. We show that purely intraspecific competition can cause evolution of extreme competitive abilities that ultimately result in extinction, without any influence from other species. The only change in the model required for this outcome is the assumption of a nonnormal distribution of resources of different sizes measured on a logarithmic scale. This suggests that taxon cycles, if they exist, may be driven by within- rather than between-species competition. Self-extinction does not occur when the advantage conferred by a large value of the competitive trait (e.g., size) is relatively small, or when the carrying capacity decreases at a comparatively rapid rate with increases in trait value. The evidence regarding these assumptions is discussed. The results suggest a need for more data on resource distributions and size-advantage in order to understand the evolution of competitive traits such as body size.     

Epistatic selection opposed by immigration in multiple locus genetic systems

A model of “complete” epistatis is considered in which all “plus” alleles must be present in an individual before the adaptive phenotype is expressed. The conditions under which the plus alleles and hence the adaptive phenotype can increase and reach a stable equilibrium in the presence of immigration of gametes carrying minus alleles are found. In haploids and diploids in which the plus alleles are recessive, frequencies of the plus alleles are the same at all loci, regardless of the linkage relationships. Tight linkage favors the existence of a locally stable polymorphic equilibrium, but the equilibrium with only minus alleles is locally stable unless there is very tight linkage or very strong selection. Thus, this kind of epistasis, which provides a simple model for a character that requires several components to be present at the same time, is very sensitive to even a small amount of immigration. Hence, the evolution of such characters is likely only in completely rather than partially isolated populations.     

THE NATURAL CONTROL OF POPULATIONS OF BUTTERFLIES AND MOTHS

1. Life-table data for 14 species of Lepidoptera are analysed by the k -factor technique of Varley & Gradwell (1960). Two factors are shown to be of particular importance in determining fluctuations in abundance from one generation to the next. These key factors are predators and the failure of females to lay their full complement of eggs.
2. Data from 24 studies are reviewed to identify any density-dependent factors that would be capable of regulating the populations about an equilibrium density. In eight studies no density-dependent relationships could be identified, and in a further 13 the only density dependence demonstrated was due to intraspecific competition for resources. It is argued that competition is incapable of regulating populations at low density. In the other three studies, natural enemies are thought to be acting in a density-dependent manner, but their ability to regulate the populations is questioned.
3. The frequency of over-population and of extinction is reviewed and both appear to occur frequently in Lepidoptera. This, coupled with the failure of most studies to demonstrate the existence of density-dependent processes capable of regulating populations, leads the author to reject the model of regulation about an equilibrium density in favour of a model of population limitation by a ceiling set by resources.
4. Fluctuations in resource availability may be important in determining variations in the abundance of many Lepidoptera, but at present too few ecologists have quantified the carrying capacity of habitats occupied by the species they study to generalize about this.     

An alternative formulation for a delayed logistic equation

We derive an alternative expression for a delayed logistic equation, assuming that the rate of change of the population depends on three components: growth, death, and intraspecific competition, with the delay in the growth component. In our formulation, we incorporate the delay in the growth term in a manner consistent with the rate of instantaneous decline in the population given by the model. We provide a complete global analysis, showing that, unlike the dynamics of the classical logistic delay differential equation (DDE) model, no sustained oscillations are possible. Just as for the classical logistic ordinary differential equation (ODE) growth model, all solutions approach a globally asymptotically stable equilibrium. However, unlike both the logistic ODE and DDE growth models, the value of this equilibrium depends on all of the parameters, including the delay, and there is a threshold that determines whether the population survives or dies out. In particular, if the delay is too long, the population dies out. When the population survives, i.e., the attracting equilibrium has a positive value, we explore how this value depends on the parameters. When this value is positive, solutions of our DDE model seem to be well approximated by solutions of the logistic ODE growth model with this carrying capacity and an appropriate choice for the intrinsic growth rate that is independent of the initial conditions.     

A two-locus mutation—Selection model and some of its evolutionary implications

The deterministic properties of a two-locus model with mutation and selection have been investigated. The mutation process is unidirectional, and the model is so constructed that the genetic variation at one locus is selectively neutral in the absence of a mutant allele at the other locus. All genotypes with three or four mutant alleles are deleterious, while the double heterozygotes may have the same fitness as the standard genotype. If one of the mutant alleles becomes fixed in the population, then the other locus will show a regular one-locus mutation-selection balance. Such a boundary equilibrium may be unstable or stable in the full two-locus setting. In the symmetric case, which is analyzed in details, the population will either go to one of the two boundary equilibria, or to a fully polymorphic equilibrium at which both the mutant alleles are rare. The origin of reproductive separation between two populations via the fixation of complementary deleterious mutants at different loci, and the fixation of nonfunctional alleles at duplicated loci, are two biological processes which both can be studied with the present model. In the last part of the paper we show how the results from the deterministic analysis can be used to predict how different factors will influence the rates of evolution in these systems.     

A paradox in discrete single species population dynamics with harvesting/thinning

We analyze a general time-discrete mathematical model of single species population dynamics with the intraspecific density effect and the harvesting/thinning effect. We harvest a portion of the population at a moment in each year. We investigate the condition under which the harvesting/thinning causes an eventual increase of its population at the equilibrium, and show that such a paradoxical increase could occur for the discrete single species population dynamics with a large family of density effect functions. Some typical models are analyzed in detail according to the possibility of the paradox emergence. Our result implies that the contest competition would never cause the paradox, while the scramble competition would be likely to cause it.