Uncertainty Surrounding Projections of the Long-Term Impact of Ivermectin Treatment on Human Onchocerciasis

Background

Recent studies in Mali, Nigeria, and Senegal have indicated that annual (or biannual) ivermectin distribution may lead to local elimination of human onchocerciasis in certain African foci. Modelling-based projections have been used to estimate the required duration of ivermectin distribution to reach elimination. A crucial assumption has been that microfilarial production by Onchocerca volvulus is reduced irreversibly by 30–35% with each (annual) ivermectin round. However, other modelling-based analyses suggest that ivermectin may not have such a cumulative effect. Uncertainty in this (biological) and other (programmatic) assumptions would affect projected outcomes of long-term ivermectin treatment.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We modify a deterministic age- and sex-structured onchocerciasis transmission model, parameterised for savannah O. volvulus–Simulium damnosum, to explore the impact of assumptions regarding the effect of ivermectin on worm fertility and the patterns of treatment coverage compliance, and frequency on projections of parasitological outcomes due to long-term, mass ivermectin administration in hyperendemic areas. The projected impact of ivermectin distribution on onchocerciasis and the benefits of switching from annual to biannual distribution are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the drug''s effect on worm fertility and on treatment compliance. If ivermectin does not have a cumulative impact on microfilarial production, elimination of onchocerciasis in hyperendemic areas may not be feasible with annual ivermectin distribution.

Conclusions/Significance

There is substantial (biological and programmatic) uncertainty surrounding modelling projections of onchocerciasis elimination. These uncertainties need to be acknowledged for mathematical models to inform control policy reliably. Further research is needed to elucidate the effect of ivermectin on O. volvulus reproductive biology and quantify the patterns of coverage and compliance in treated communities.     

Does Mass Azithromycin Distribution Impact Child Growth and Nutrition in Niger? A Cluster-Randomized Trial

Background

Antibiotic use on animals demonstrates improved growth regardless of whether or not there is clinical evidence of infectious disease. Antibiotics used for trachoma control may play an unintended benefit of improving child growth.

Methodology

In this sub-study of a larger randomized controlled trial, we assess anthropometry of pre-school children in a community-randomized trial of mass oral azithromycin distributions for trachoma in Niger. We measured height, weight, and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) in 12 communities randomized to receive annual mass azithromycin treatment of everyone versus 12 communities randomized to receive biannual mass azithromycin treatments for children, 3 years after the initial mass treatment. We collected measurements in 1,034 children aged 6–60 months of age.

Principal Findings

We found no difference in the prevalence of wasting among children in the 12 annually treated communities that received three mass azithromycin distributions compared to the 12 biannually treated communities that received six mass azithromycin distributions (odds ratio = 0.88, 95% confidence interval = 0.53 to 1.49).

Conclusions/Significance

We were unable to demonstrate a statistically significant difference in stunting, underweight, and low MUAC of pre-school children in communities randomized to annual mass azithromycin treatment or biannual mass azithromycin treatment. The role of antibiotics on child growth and nutrition remains unclear, but larger studies and longitudinal trials may help determine any association.     

African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control 1995–2015: Model-Estimated Health Impact and Cost

Background

Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015.

Methods and Findings

With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million.

Conclusions

Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future.     

Onchocerciasis Transmission in Ghana: Persistence under Different Control Strategies and the Role of the Simuliid Vectors

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) aims at eliminating onchocerciasis by 2020 in selected African countries. Current control focuses on community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI). In Ghana, persistent transmission has been reported despite long-term control. We present spatial and temporal patterns of onchocerciasis transmission in relation to ivermectin treatment history.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Host-seeking and ovipositing blackflies were collected from seven villages in four regions of Ghana with 3–24 years of CDTI at the time of sampling. A total of 16,443 flies was analysed for infection; 5,812 (35.3%) were dissected for parity (26.9% parous). Heads and thoraces of 12,196 flies were dissected for Onchocerca spp. and DNA from 11,122 abdomens was amplified using Onchocerca primers. A total of 463 larvae (0.03 larvae/fly) from 97 (0.6%) infected and 62 (0.4%) infective flies was recorded; 258 abdomens (2.3%) were positive for Onchocerca DNA. Infections (all were O. volvulus) were more likely to be detected in ovipositing flies. Transmission occurred, mostly in the wet season, at Gyankobaa and Bosomase, with transmission potentials of, respectively, 86 and 422 L3/person/month after 3 and 6 years of CDTI. The numbers of L3/1,000 parous flies at these villages were over 100 times the WHO threshold of one L3/1,000 for transmission control. Vector species influenced transmission parameters. At Asubende, the number of L3/1,000 ovipositing flies (1.4, 95% CI = 0–4) also just exceeded the threshold despite extensive vector control and 24 years of ivermectin distribution, but there were no infective larvae in host-seeking flies.

Conclusions/Significance

Despite repeated ivermectin treatment, evidence of O. volvulus transmission was documented in all seven villages and above the WHO threshold in two. Vector species influences transmission through biting and parous rates and vector competence, and should be included in transmission models. Oviposition traps could augment vector collector methods for monitoring and surveillance.     

Proof-of-Principle of Onchocerciasis Elimination with Ivermectin Treatment in Endemic Foci in Africa: Final Results of a Study in Mali and Senegal

Background

Mass treatment with ivermectin controls onchocerciasis as a public health problem, but it was not known if it could also interrupt transmission and eliminate the parasite in endemic foci in Africa where vectors are highly efficient. A longitudinal study was undertaken in three hyperendemic foci in Mali and Senegal with 15 to 17 years of annual or six-monthly ivermectin treatment in order to assess residual levels of infection and transmission, and test whether treatment could be safely stopped. This article reports the results of the final evaluations up to 5 years after the last treatment.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Skin snip surveys were undertaken in 131 villages where 29,753 people were examined and 492,600 blackflies were analyzed for the presence of Onchocerca volvulus larva using a specific DNA probe. There was a declining trend in infection and transmission levels after the last treatment. In two sites the prevalence of microfilaria and vector infectivity rate were zero 3 to 4 years after the last treatment. In the third site, where infection levels were comparatively high before stopping treatment, there was also a consistent decline in infection and transmission to very low levels 3 to 5 years after stopping treatment. All infection and transmission indicators were below postulated thresholds for elimination.

Conclusion/Significance

The study has established the proof of principle that onchocerciasis elimination with ivermectin treatment is feasible in at least some endemic foci in Africa. The study results have been instrumental for the current evolution from onchocerciasis control to elimination in Africa.     

Macrofilaricidal Activity after Doxycycline Only Treatment of Onchocerca volvulus in an Area of Loa loa Co-Endemicity: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Background

The risk of severe adverse events following treatment of onchocerciasis with ivermectin in areas co-endemic with loiasis currently compromises the development of control programmes and the treatment of co-infected individuals. We therefore assessed whether doxycycline treatment could be used without subsequent ivermectin administration to effectively deliver sustained effects on Onchocerca volvulus microfilaridermia and adult viability. Furthermore we assessed the safety of doxycycline treatment prior to ivermectin administration in a subset of onchocerciasis individuals co-infected with low to moderate intensities of Loa loa microfilaraemia.

Methods

A double-blind, randomized, field trial was conducted of 6 weeks of doxycycline (200 mg/day) alone, doxycycline in combination with ivermectin (150 µg/kg) at +4 months or placebo matching doxycycline + ivermectin at +4 months in 150 individuals infected with Onchocerca volvulus. A further 22 individuals infected with O. volvulus and low to moderate intensities of Loa loa infection were administered with a course of 6 weeks doxycycline with ivermectin at +4 months. Treatment efficacy was determined at 4, 12 and 21 months after the start of doxycycline treatment together with the frequency and severity of adverse events.

Results

One hundred and four (60.5%) participants completed all treatment allocations and follow up assessments over the 21-month trial period. At 12 months, doxycycline/ivermectin treated individuals had lower levels of microfilaridermia and higher frequency of amicrofilaridermia compared with ivermectin or doxycycline only groups. At 21 months, microfilaridermia in doxycycline/ivermectin and doxycycline only groups was significantly reduced compared to the ivermectin only group. 89% of the doxycycline/ivermectin group and 67% of the doxycycline only group were amicrofilaridermic, compared with 21% in the ivermectin only group. O. volvulus from doxycycline groups were depleted of Wolbachia and all embryonic stages in utero. Notably, the viability of female adult worms was significantly reduced in doxycycline treated groups and the macrofilaricidal and sterilising activity was unaffected by the addition of ivermectin. Treatment with doxycycline was well tolerated and the incidence of adverse event to doxycycline or ivermectin did not significantly deviate between treatment groups.

Conclusions

A six-week course of doxycycline delivers macrofilaricidal and sterilizing activities, which is not dependent upon co-administration of ivermectin. Doxycycline is well tolerated in patients co-infected with moderate intensities of L. loa microfilariae. Therefore, further trials are warranted to assess the safety and efficacy of doxycycline-based interventions to treat onchocerciasis in individuals at risk of serious adverse reactions to standard treatments due to the co-occurrence of high intensities of L. loa parasitaemias. The development of an anti-wolbachial treatment regime compatible with MDA control programmes could offer an alternative to the control of onchocerciasis in areas of co-endemicity with loiasis and at risk of severe adverse reactions to ivermectin.

Trial Registration

Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN48118452     

Status of Onchocerciasis Transmission after More Than a Decade of Mass Drug Administration for Onchocerciasis and Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination in Central Nigeria: Challenges in Coordinating the Stop MDA Decision

Background

This study was undertaken in five onchocerciasis/lymphatic filariasis (LF) co-endemic local government areas (LGAs) in Plateau and Nasarawa, Nigeria. Annual MDA with ivermectin had been given for 17 years, 8 of which were in combination with albendazole. In 2008, assessments indicated that LF transmission was interrupted, but that the MDA had to continue due to the uncertain status of onchocerciasis transmission. Accordingly, assessments to determine if ivermectin MDA for onchocerciasis could be stopped were conducted in 2009.

Methods

We evaluated nodule, microfilarial (mf) skin snip, and antibody (IgG4 response to OV16) prevalence in adults and children in six sentinel sites where baseline data from the 1990s were available. We applied the 2001 WHO criteria for elimination of onchocerciasis that defined transmission interruption as an infection rate of <0.1% in children (using both skin snip and OV16 antibody) and a rate of infective (L3) blackflies of <0.05%.

Results

Among adult residents in sentinel sites, mean mf prevalence decreased by 99.37% from the 1991–1993 baseline of 42.95% (64/149) to 0.27% (2/739) in 2009 (p<0.001). The OV16 seropositivity of 3.52% (26/739) among this same group was over ten times the mf rate. No mf or nodules were detected in 4,451 children in sentinel sites and ‘spot check’ villages, allowing the exclusion of 0.1% infection rate with 95% confidence. Seven OV16 seropositives were detected, yielding a seroprevalence of 0.16% (0.32% upper 95%CI). No infections were detected in PCR testing of 1,568 Simulium damnosum s.l. flies obtained from capture sites around the six sentinel sites.

Conclusion

Interruption of transmission of onchocerciasis in these five LGAs is highly likely, although the number of flies caught was insufficient to exclude 0.05% with 95% confidence (upper CI 0.23%). We suggest that ivermectin MDA could be stopped in these LGAs if similar results are seen in neighboring districts.     

Human Onchocerciasis: Modelling the Potential Long-term Consequences of a Vaccination Programme

Background

Currently, the predominant onchocerciasis control strategy in Africa is annual mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin. However, there is a consensus among the global health community, supported by mathematical modelling, that onchocerciasis in Africa will not be eliminated within proposed time frameworks in all endemic foci with only annual MDA, and novel and alternative strategies are urgently needed. Furthermore, use of MDA with ivermectin is already compromised in large areas of central Africa co-endemic with Loa loa, and there are areas where suboptimal or atypical responses to ivermectin have been documented. An onchocerciasis vaccine would be highly advantageous in these areas.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used a previously developed onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO) to investigate the impact of vaccination in areas where loiasis and onchocerciasis are co-endemic and ivermectin is contraindicated. We also explore the potential influence of a vaccination programme on infection resurgence in areas where local elimination has been successfully achieved. Based on the age range included in the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), the vaccine was assumed to target 1 to 5 year olds. Our modelling results indicate that the deployment of an onchocerciasis vaccine would have a beneficial impact in onchocerciasis–loiasis co-endemic areas, markedly reducing microfilarial load in the young (under 20 yr) age groups.

Conclusions/Significance

An onchocerciasis prophylactic vaccine would reduce the onchocerciasis disease burden in populations where ivermectin cannot be administered safely. Moreover, a vaccine could substantially decrease the chance of re-emergence of Onchocerca volvulus infection in areas where it is deemed that MDA with ivermectin can be stopped. Therefore, a vaccine would protect the substantial investments made by present and past onchocerciasis control programmes, decreasing the chance of disease recrudescence and offering an important additional tool to mitigate the potentially devastating impact of emerging ivermectin resistance.     

Genetic selection of low fertile Onchocerca volvulus by ivermectin treatment

Background

Onchocerca volvulus is the causative agent of onchocerciasis, or “river blindness”. Ivermectin has been used for mass treatment of onchocerciasis for up to 18 years, and recently there have been reports of poor parasitological responses to the drug. Should ivermectin resistance be developing, it would have a genetic basis. We monitored genetic changes in parasites obtained from the same patients before use of ivermectin and following different levels of ivermectin exposure.

Methods and Findings

O. volvulus adult worms were obtained from 73 patients before exposure to ivermectin and in the same patients following three years of annual or three-monthly treatment at 150 µg/kg or 800 µg/kg. Genotype frequencies were determined in β-tubulin, a gene previously found to be linked to ivermectin selection and resistance in parasitic nematodes. Such frequencies were also determined in two other genes, heat shock protein 60 and acidic ribosomal protein, not known to be linked to ivermectin effects. In addition, we investigated the relationship between β-tubulin genotype and female parasite fertility. We found a significant selection for β-tubulin heterozygotes in female worms. There was no significant selection for the two other genes. Quarterly ivermectin treatment over three years reduced the frequency of the β-tubulin “aa” homozygotes from 68.6% to 25.6%, while the “ab” heterozygotes increased from 20.9% to 69.2% in the female parasites. The female worms that were homozygous at the β-tubulin locus were more fertile than the heterozygous female worms before treatment (67% versus 37%; p = 0.003) and twelve months after the last dose of ivermectin in the groups treated annually (60% versus 17%; p<0.001). Differences in fertility between heterozygous and homozygous worms were less apparent three months after the last treatment in the groups treated three-monthly.

Conclusions

The results indicate that ivermectin is causing genetic selection on O. volvulus. This genetic selection is associated with a lower reproductive rate in the female parasites. We hypothesize that this genetic selection indicates that a population of O. volvulus, which is more tolerant to ivermectin, is being selected. This selection could have implications for the development of ivermectin resistance in O. volvulus and for the ongoing onchocerciasis control programmes.     

Routine Paediatric Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) Outpatient Care in a Rural Kenyan Hospital: Utilization and Costs

Background

More than 70% of children with sickle cell disease (SCD) are born in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence at birth of this disease reaches 2% or higher in some selected areas. There is a dearth of knowledge on comprehensive care received by children with SCD in sub-Saharan Africa and its associated cost. Such knowledge is important for setting prevention and treatment priorities at national and international levels. This study focuses on routine care for children with SCD in an outpatient clinic of the Kilifi District Hospital, located in a rural area on the coast of Kenya.

Objective

To estimate the per-patient costs for routine SCD outpatient care at a rural Kenyan hospital.

Methods

We collected routine administrative and primary cost data from the SCD outpatient clinic and supporting departments at Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya. Costs were estimated by evaluating inputs - equipment, medication, supplies, building use, utility, and personnel - to reflect the cost of offering this service within an existing healthcare facility. Annual economic costs were similarly calculated based on input costs, prorated lifetime of equipment and appropriate discount rate. Sensitivity analyses evaluated these costs under different pay scales and different discount rate.

Results

We estimated that the annual economic cost per patient attending the SCD clinic was USD 138 in 2010 with a range of USD 94 to USD 229.

Conclusion

This study supplies the first published estimate of the cost of routine outpatient care for children born with SCD in sub-Saharan Africa. Our study provides policy makers with an indication of the potential future costs of maintaining specialist outpatient clinics for children living with SCD in similar contexts.     

Impact of long-term treatment with ivermectin on the prevalence and intensity of soil-transmitted helminth infections

Background

Control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections relies on the periodic and long-term administration of anthelmintic drugs to high-risk groups, particularly school-age children living in endemic areas. There is limited data on the effectiveness of long-term periodic anthelmintic treatment on the prevalence of STHs, particularly from operational programmes. The current study investigated the impact of 15 to 17 years of treatment with the broad-spectrum anthelmintic ivermectin, used for the control of onchocerciasis, on STH prevalence and intensity in school-age and pre-school children.

Methods and Findings

A cross-sectional study was conducted in communities that had received annual or twice-annual ivermectin treatments and geographically adjacent communities that had not received treatment in two districts of Esmeraldas Province in Ecuador. Stool samples were collected from school-age children and examined for STH infection using the Kato-Katz and formol-ether concentration methods. Samples were collected also from pre-school children and examined by the formol-ether concentration method. Data on risk factors for STH infection were collected by parental questionnaire. We sampled a total of 3,705 school-age children (6–16 years) from 31 treated and 27 non-treated communities, and 1,701 pre-school children aged 0–5 years from 18 treated and 18 non-treated communities. Among school-age children, ivermectin treatment had significant effects on the prevalence (adjusted OR =  0.06, 95% CI 0.03–0.14) and intensity of Trichuris trichiura infection (adjusted RR = 0.28, 95% CI 0.11–0.70), but appeared to have no impact on Ascaris lumbricoides or hookworm infection. Reduced prevalence and intensities of T. trichiura infection were observed among children not eligible to receive ivermectina, providing some evidence of reduced transmission of T. trichiura infection in communities receiving mass ivermectin treatments.

Conclusion

Annual and twice-annual treatments with ivermectin over a period of up to 17 years may have had a significant impact on T. trichiura infection. The present data indicate that the long-term control of onchocerciasis with ivermectin may provide additional health benefits by reducing infections with trichuriasis. The addition of a second anthelmintic drug such as albendazole may be useful for a long-term effect on A. lumbricoides infection.     

Impact of Six Years Community Directed Treatment with Ivermectin in the Control of Onchocerciasis,Western Ethiopia

Background

The African Program for Onchocerciais Control (APOC) with a main strategy of community directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI) was established with the aim of eliminating Onchocerciasis as a disease of public health and socio-economic importance. The study area was a hyper endemic area just before the implementation of CDTI. It has been implemented for six years in this district but yet not been evaluated. So, the objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of six years CDTI on parasitological and clinical indices of Onchocerciasis

Methods

This study employed a pre-post impact evaluation design. The minimum sample size for this study was 1318; the respondents were selected by multi-stage sampling technique. Data on socio-demographic characteristics using a semi-structured questionnaire, clinical examination for skin signs and symptoms of Onchocerciasis and two bloodless skin snips from each side of the gluteal fold were taken from the entire study participants. SPSS version 16.0 and Medcalc version 12.2.1.0 were used for analysis.

Result

The microfilaridermia reduced from the pre-intervention value of 74.8% to 40.7%, indicating a 45.6% reduction, mean intensity from 32.1(SD = 61.5) mf/mg skin snip to 18.7(SD = 28.7)indicating 41.75% reduction, CMFL from 19.6 mf/mg skin snip to 4.7 indicating 76% reduction. The result also showed that microfilaridermia and mean intensity decreased as the number of treatment taken increased. Pruritis, leopard skin, onchocercomata and hanging groin reduced by 54.4%, 61.3%, 77.7% and 88.5% respectively.

Conclusions

The implementation of CDTI significantly reduced the parasitological and clinical indices of Onchocerciasis, so, efforts should be made to improve the annual treatment coverage and sustainability of CDTI to drastically reduce the micro filarial load to the level the disease would no longer be a public health problem.     

Interruption of Transmission of Onchocerca volvulus in the Southern Chiapas Focus,México

Background

The Southern Chiapas focus of onchocerciasis in Southern Mexico represents one of the major onchocerciasis foci in Latin America. All 559 endemic communities of this focus have undergone semi-annual mass treatment with ivermectin since 1998. In 50 communities of this focus, ivermectin frequency shifted from twice to four times a year in 2003; an additional 113 communities were added to the quarterly treatment regimen in 2009 to achieve a rapid suppression of transmission.

Methodology/Principal findings

In-depth epidemiologic and entomologic assessments were performed in six sentinel communities (which had undergone 2 rounds of ivermectin treatment per year) and three extra-sentinel communities (which had undergone 4 rounds of ivermectin treatment per year). None of the 67,924 Simulium ochraceum s.l. collected from this focus during the dry season of 2011 were found to contain parasite DNA when tested by polymerase chain reaction-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (PCR-ELISA), resulting in an upper bound of the 95% confidence interval (95%-ULCI) of the infective rate in the vectors of 0.06/2,000 flies examined. Serological assays testing for Onchocerca volvulus exposure conducted on 4,230 children 5 years of age and under (of a total population of 10,280 in this age group) revealed that 2/4,230 individuals were exposed to O. volvulus (0.05%; one sided 95% confidence interval = 0.08%).

Conclusions/Significance

The in-depth epidemiological and entomological findings from the Southern Chiapas focus meet the criteria for interruption of transmission developed by the international community.     

Mass Administration of Ivermectin for the Elimination of Onchocerciasis Significantly Reduced and Maintained Low the Prevalence of Strongyloides stercoralis in Esmeraldas,Ecuador

Objectives

To evaluate the effect of ivermectin mass drug administration on strongyloidiasis and other soil transmitted helminthiases.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of data collected in Esmeraldas (Ecuador) during surveys conducted in areas where ivermectin was annually administered to the entire population for the control of onchocerciasis.Data from 5 surveys, conducted between 1990 (before the start of the distribution of ivermectin) and 2013 (six years after the interruption of the intervention) were analyzed. The surveys also comprised areas where ivermectin was not distributed because onchocerciasis was not endemic.Different laboratory techniques were used in the different surveys (direct fecal smear, formol-ether concentration, IFAT and IVD ELISA for Strongyloides stercoralis).

Results

In the areas where ivermectin was distributed the strongyloidiasis prevalence fell from 6.8% in 1990 to zero in 1996 and 1999. In 2013 prevalence in children was zero with stool examination and 1.3% with serology, in adult 0.7% and 2.7%.In areas not covered by ivermectin distribution the prevalence was 23.5% and 16.1% in 1996 and 1999, respectively. In 2013 the prevalence was 0.6% with fecal exam and 9.3% with serology in children and 2.3% and 17.9% in adults.Regarding other soil transmitted helminthiases: in areas where ivermectin was distributed the prevalence of T. trichiura was significantly reduced, while A. lumbricoides and hookworms were seemingly unaffected.

Conclusions

Periodic mass distribution of ivermectin had a significant impact on the prevalence of strongyloidiasis, less on trichuriasis and apparently no effect on ascariasis and hookworm infections.     

The cost of universal health care in India: a model based estimate

Introduction

As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed.

Methods

We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers.

Results

We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18–73) per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%–6.8%) of the GDP for universalizing health care services.

Conclusion

The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored.     

Evolution of Direct Costs in the First Years of Rheumatoid Arthritis: Impact of Early versus Late Biologic Initiation - An Economic Analysis Based on the ESPOIR Cohort

Objectives

To estimate annual direct costs of early RA by resource component in an inception cohort, with reference to four distinct treatment strategies: no disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs), synthetic DMARDs only, biologic DMARDs in the first year (‘first-year biologic’, FYB), and biologic DMARDs from the second year after inclusion (‘later-year biologic’, LYB); to determine predictors of total and non-DMARD related costs.

Methods

The ESPOIR cohort is a French multicentric, prospective study of 813 patients with early arthritis. Data assessing RA-related resource utilisation and disease characteristics were collected at baseline, biannually during the first two years and annually thereafter. Costs predictors were determined by generalised linear mixed analyses.

Results

Over the 4-year follow-up, mean annual direct total costs per treatment strategy group were €3,612 for all patients and €998, €1,922, €14,791, €8,477 respectively for no DMARDs, synthetic DMARDs only, FYB and LYB users. The main predictors of higher costs were biologic use and higher Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) scores at baseline. Being a biologic user led to a higher total cost (FYB Rate Ratio (RR) 7.22, [95% CI 5.59–9.31]; LYB RR 4.39, [95% CI 3.58–5.39]) compared to non-biologic users. Only LYB increased non-DMARD related costs compared to all other patients by 60%.

Conclusions

FYB users incurred the highest levels of total costs, while their non-DMARD related costs remained similar to non-biologic users, possibly reflecting better RA control.     

Epilepsy in Onchocerciasis Endemic Areas: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Population-Based Surveys

Objective

We sought to evaluate the relationship between onchocerciasis prevalence and that of epilepsy using available data collected at community level.

Design

We conducted a systematic review and meta-regression of available data.

Data Sources

Electronic and paper records on subject area ever produced up to February 2008.

Review Methods

We searched for population-based studies reporting on the prevalence of epilepsy in communities for which onchocerciasis prevalence was available or could be estimated. Two authors independently assessed eligibility and study quality and extracted data. The estimation of point prevalence of onchocerciasis was standardized across studies using appropriate correction factors. Variation in epilepsy prevalence was then analyzed as a function of onchocerciasis endemicity using random-effect logistic models.

Results

Eight studies from west (Benin and Nigeria), central (Cameroon and Central African Republic) and east Africa (Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi) met the criteria for inclusion and analysis. Ninety-one communities with a total population of 79,270 individuals screened for epilepsy were included in the analysis. The prevalence of epilepsy ranged from 0 to 8.7% whereas that of onchocerciasis ranged from 5.2 to 100%. Variation in epilepsy prevalence was consistent with a logistic function of onchocerciasis prevalence, with epilepsy prevalence being increased, on average, by 0.4% for each 10% increase in onchocerciasis prevalence.

Conclusion

These results give further evidence that onchocerciasis is associated with epilepsy and that the disease burden of onchocerciasis might have to be re-estimated by taking into account this relationship.     

Dynamics of Onchocerca volvulus Microfilarial Densities after Ivermectin Treatment in an Ivermectin-na?ve and a Multiply Treated Population from Cameroon

Background/Objective

Ivermectin has been the keystone of onchocerciasis control for the last 25 years. Sub-optimal responses to the drug have been reported in Ghanaian communities under long-term treatment. We assessed, in two Cameroonian foci, whether the microfilaricidal and/or embryostatic effects of ivermectin on Onchocerca volvulus have been altered after several years of drug pressure.

Methods

We compared the dynamics of O. volvulus skin microfilarial densities after ivermectin treatment in two cohorts with contrasting exposure to this drug: one received repeated treatment for 13 years whereas the other had no history of large-scale treatments (referred to as controls). Microfilarial densities were assessed 15, 80 and 180 days after ivermectin in 122 multiply treated and 127 ivermectin-naïve individuals. Comparisons were adjusted for individual factors related to microfilarial density: age and number of nodules.

Findings

Two weeks post ivermectin, microfilarial density dropped equally (98% reduction) in the ivermectin-naïve and multiply treated groups. Between 15 and 180 days post ivermectin, the proportion of individuals with skin microfilariae doubled (from 30.8% to 67.8%) in controls and quadrupled (from 19.8% to 76.9%) in multiply treated individuals but the mean densities remained low in both sites. In fact, between 15 and 80 days, the repopulation rate was significantly higher in the multiply treated individuals than in the controls but no such difference was demonstrated when extending the follow-up to 180 days. The repopulation rate by microfilariae was associated with host factors: negatively with age and positively with the number of nodules.

Conclusion

These observations may indicate that the worms from the multi-treated area recover mf productivity earlier but would be less productive than the worms from the ivermectin-naïve area between 80 and 180 days after ivermectin. Moreover, they do not support the operation of a strong cumulative effect of repeated treatments on the fecundity of female worms as previously described.     

Metabolomics-Based Discovery of Diagnostic Biomarkers for Onchocerciasis

Background

Development of robust, sensitive, and reproducible diagnostic tests for understanding the epidemiology of neglected tropical diseases is an integral aspect of the success of worldwide control and elimination programs. In the treatment of onchocerciasis, clinical diagnostics that can function in an elimination scenario are non-existent and desperately needed. Due to its sensitivity and quantitative reproducibility, liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) based metabolomics is a powerful approach to this problem.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Analysis of an African sample set comprised of 73 serum and plasma samples revealed a set of 14 biomarkers that showed excellent discrimination between Onchocerca volvulus–positive and negative individuals by multivariate statistical analysis. Application of this biomarker set to an additional sample set from onchocerciasis endemic areas where long-term ivermectin treatment has been successful revealed that the biomarker set may also distinguish individuals with worms of compromised viability from those with active infection. Machine learning extended the utility of the biomarker set from a complex multivariate analysis to a binary format applicable for adaptation to a field-based diagnostic, validating the use of complex data mining tools applied to infectious disease biomarker discovery and diagnostic development.

Conclusions/Significance

An LC-MS metabolomics-based diagnostic has the potential to monitor the progression of onchocerciasis in both endemic and non-endemic geographic areas, as well as provide an essential tool to multinational programs in the ongoing fight against this neglected tropical disease. Ultimately this technology can be expanded for the diagnosis of other filarial and/or neglected tropical diseases.     

Onchocerciasis: The Pre-control Association between Prevalence of Palpable Nodules and Skin Microfilariae

Background

The prospect of eliminating onchocerciasis from Africa by mass treatment with ivermectin has been rejuvenated following recent successes in foci in Mali, Nigeria and Senegal. Elimination prospects depend strongly on local transmission conditions and therefore on pre-control infection levels. Pre-control infection levels in Africa have been mapped largely by means of nodule palpation of adult males, a relatively crude method for detecting infection. We investigated how informative pre-control nodule prevalence data are for estimating the pre-control prevalence of microfilariae (mf) in the skin and discuss implications for assessing elimination prospects.

Methods and Findings

We analyzed published data on pre-control nodule prevalence in males aged ≥20 years and mf prevalence in the population aged ≥5 years from 148 African villages. A meta-analysis was performed by means of Bayesian hierarchical multivariate logistic regression, accounting for measurement error in mf and nodule prevalence, bioclimatic zones, and other geographical variation. There was a strong positive correlation between nodule prevalence in adult males and mf prevalence in the general population. In the forest-savanna mosaic area, the pattern in nodule and mf prevalence differed significantly from that in the savanna or forest areas.

Significance

We provide a tool to convert pre-control nodule prevalence in adult males to mf prevalence in the general population, allowing historical data to be interpreted in terms of elimination prospects and disease burden of onchocerciasis. Furthermore, we identified significant geographical variation in mf prevalence and nodule prevalence patterns warranting further investigation of geographical differences in transmission patterns of onchocerciasis.