QUANTITATIVE GENETICS OF BRYOZOAN PHENOTYPIC EVOLUTION. II. ANALYSIS OF SELECTION AND RANDOM CHANGE IN FOSSIL SPECIES USING RECONSTRUCTED GENETIC PARAMETERS

The roles of natural selection and random genetic change in the punctuated phenotypic evolution of eight Miocene-Pliocene tropical American species of the cheilostome bryozoan Metrarabdotos are analyzed by quantitative genetic methods. Trait heritabilities and genetic covariances reconstructed by partitioning within- and among-colony phenotypic variance are similar to those previously obtained for living species of the cheilostome Stylopoma using breeding data. The hypothesis that differences in skeletal morphology between species of Metrarabdotos are entirely due to mutation and genetic drift cannot be rejected for reasonable rates of mutation maintained for periods brief enough to account for the geologically abrupt appearances of these species in the fossil record. Except for one pair of species, separated by the largest morphologic distance, directional selection acting alone would require unrealistically high rates of selective mortality to be maintained for these periods. Thus, directional selection is not strongly implicated in the divergence of Metrarabdotos species. Within species, rates of net phenotypic change are slow enough to require stabilizing selection, but mask large, relatively rapid fluctuations, all of which, however, can be attributed to chance departures from the mean phenotype by mutation and genetic drift, rather than to tracking environmental fluctuation by directional selection. The results are consistent with genetic models involving shifts between multiple adaptive peaks on which phenotypes remain more or less static through long-term stabilizing selection. Regardless of the degree to which directional selection may be involved in peak shifts, phenotypic differentiation is thus related to processes different than the pervasive stabilizing selection acting within species.     

Spatial processes and evolutionary models: a critical review

Evolution is a fundamentally population level process in which variation, drift and selection produce both temporal and spatial patterns of change. Statistical model fitting is now commonly used to estimate which kind of evolutionary process best explains patterns of change through time using models like Brownian motion, stabilizing selection (Ornstein–Uhlenbeck) and directional selection on traits measured from stratigraphic sequences or on phylogenetic trees. But these models assume that the traits possessed by a species are homogeneous. Spatial processes such as dispersal, gene flow and geographical range changes can produce patterns of trait evolution that do not fit the expectations of standard models, even when evolution at the local‐population level is governed by drift or a typical OU model of selection. The basic properties of population level processes (variation, drift, selection and population size) are reviewed and the relationship between their spatial and temporal dynamics is discussed. Typical evolutionary models used in palaeontology incorporate the temporal component of these dynamics, but not the spatial. Range expansions and contractions introduce rate variability into drift processes, range expansion under a drift model can drive directional change in trait evolution, and spatial selection gradients can create spatial variation in traits that can produce long‐term directional trends and punctuation events depending on the balance between selection strength, gene flow, extirpation probability and model of speciation. Using computational modelling that spatial processes can create evolutionary outcomes that depart from basic population‐level notions from these standard macroevolutionary models.     

Species selection and random drift in macroevolution

Species selection resulting from trait‐dependent speciation and extinction is increasingly recognized as an important mechanism of phenotypic macroevolution. However, the recent bloom in statistical methods quantifying this process faces a scarcity of dynamical theory for their interpretation, notably regarding the relative contributions of deterministic versus stochastic evolutionary forces. I use simple diffusion approximations of birth‐death processes to investigate how the expected and random components of macroevolutionary change depend on phenotype‐dependent speciation and extinction rates, as can be estimated empirically. I show that the species selection coefficient for a binary trait, and selection differential for a quantitative trait, depend not only on differences in net diversification rates (speciation minus extinction), but also on differences in species turnover rates (speciation plus extinction), especially in small clades. The randomness in speciation and extinction events also produces a species‐level equivalent to random genetic drift, which is stronger for higher turnover rates. I then show how microevolutionary processes including mutation, organismic selection, and random genetic drift cause state transitions at the species level, allowing comparison of evolutionary forces across levels. A key parameter that would be needed to apply this theory is the distribution and rate of origination of new optimum phenotypes along a phylogeny.     

Evolution and stability of the G-matrix on a landscape with a moving optimum

In quantitative genetics, the genetic architecture of traits, described in terms of variances and covariances, plays a major role in determining the trajectory of evolutionary change. Hence, the genetic variance-covariance matrix (G-matrix) is a critical component of modern quantitative genetics theory. Considerable debate has surrounded the issue of G-matrix constancy because unstable G-matrices provide major difficulties for evolutionary inference. Empirical studies and analytical theory have not resolved the debate. Here we present the results of stochastic models of G-matrix evolution in a population responding to an adaptive landscape with an optimum that moves at a constant rate. This study builds on the previous results of stochastic simulations of G-matrix stability under stabilizing selection arising from a stationary optimum. The addition of a moving optimum leads to several important new insights. First, evolution along genetic lines of least resistance increases stability of the orientation of the G-matrix relative to stabilizing selection alone. Evolution across genetic lines of least resistance decreases G-matrix stability. Second, evolution in response to a continuously changing optimum can produce persistent maladaptation for a correlated trait, even if its optimum does not change. Third, the retrospective analysis of selection performs very well when the mean G-matrix (G) is known with certainty, indicating that covariance between G and the directional selection gradient beta is usually small enough in magnitude that it introduces only a small bias in estimates of the net selection gradient. Our results also show, however, that the contemporary G-matrix only serves as a rough guide to G. The most promising approach for the estimation of G is probably through comparative phylogenetic analysis. Overall, our results show that directional selection actually can increase stability of the G-matrix and that retrospective analysis of selection is inherently feasible. One major remaining challenge is to gain a sufficient understanding of the G-matrix to allow the confident estimation of G.     

Microevolution in island forms: the roles of drift and directional selection in morphological divergence of a passerine bird

Abstract.— Theory predicts that in small isolated populations random genetic drift can lead to phenotypic divergence; however this prediction has rarely been tested quantitatively in natural populations. Here we utilize natural repeated island colonization events by members of the avian species complex, Zosterops lateralis , to assess whether or not genetic drift alone is an adequate explanation for the observed patterns of microevolutionary divergence in morphology. Morphological and molecular genetic characteristics of island and mainland populations are compared to test three predictions of drift theory: (1) that the pattern of morphological change is idiosyncratic to each island; (2) that there is concordance between morphological and neutral genetic shifts across island populations; and (3) for populations whose time of colonization is known, that the rate of morphological change is sufficiently slow to be accounted for solely by genetic drift. Our results are not consistent with these predictions. First, the direction of size shifts was consistently towards larger size, suggesting the action of a nonrandom process. Second, patterns of morphological divergence among recently colonized populations showed little concordance with divergence in neutral genetic characters. Third, rate tests of morphological change showed that effective population sizes were not small enough for random processes alone to account for the magnitude of microevolutionary change. Altogether, these three lines of evidence suggest that drift alone is not an adequate explanation of morphological differentiation in recently colonized island Zosterops and therefore we suggest that the observed microevolutionary changes are largely a result of directional natural selection.     

The evolution of the phenotypic covariance matrix: evidence for selection and drift in Melanoplus

Phenotypic variation in trait means is a common observation for geographically separated populations. Such variation is typically retained under common garden conditions, indicating that there has been evolutionary change in the populations, as a result of selection and/or drift. Much less frequently studied is variation in the phenotypic covariance matrix (hereafter, P matrix), although this is an important component of evolutionary change. In this paper, we examine variation in the phenotypic means and P matrices in two species of grasshopper, Melanoplus sanguinipes and M. devastator. Using the P matrices estimated for 14 populations of M. sanguinipes and three populations of M. devastator we find that (1) significant differences between the sexes can be attributed to scaling effects; (2) there is no significant difference between the two species; (3) there are highly significant differences among populations that cannot be accounted for by scaling effects; (4) these differences are a consequence of statistically significant patterns of covariation with geographic and environmental factors, phenotypic variances and covariances increasing with increased temperature but decreasing with increased latitude and altitude. This covariation suggests that selection has been important in the evolution of the P matrix in these populations Finally, we find a significant positive correlation between the average difference between matrices and the genetic distance between the populations, indicating that drift has caused some of the variation in the P matrices.     

Evolution of branched regulatory genetic pathways: directional selection on pleiotropic loci accelerates developmental system drift

Developmental systems are regulated by a web of interacting loci. One common and useful approach in studying the evolution of development is to focus on classes of interacting elements within these systems. Here, we use individual-based simulations to study the evolution of traits controlled by branched developmental pathways involving three loci, where one locus regulates two different traits. We examined the system under a variety of selective regimes. In the case where one branch was under stabilizing selection and the other under directional selection, we observed "developmental system drift": the trait under stabilizing selection showed little phenotypic change even though the loci underlying that trait showed considerable evolutionary divergence. This occurs because the pleiotropic locus responds to directional selection and compensatory mutants are then favored in the pathway under stabilizing selection. Though developmental system drift may be caused by other mechanisms, it seems likely that it is accelerated by the same underlying genetic mechanism as that producing the Dobzhansky-Muller incompatibilities that lead to speciation in both linear and branched pathways. We also discuss predictions of our model for developmental system drift and how different selective regimes affect probabilities of speciation in the branched pathway system.     

Evolutionary rates for multivariate traits: the role of selection and genetic variation

A fundamental question in evolutionary biology is the relative importance of selection and genetic architecture in determining evolutionary rates. Adaptive evolution can be described by the multivariate breeders'' equation (), which predicts evolutionary change for a suite of phenotypic traits () as a product of directional selection acting on them (β) and the genetic variance–covariance matrix for those traits (G). Despite being empirically challenging to estimate, there are enough published estimates of G and β to allow for synthesis of general patterns across species. We use published estimates to test the hypotheses that there are systematic differences in the rate of evolution among trait types, and that these differences are, in part, due to genetic architecture. We find some evidence that sexually selected traits exhibit faster rates of evolution compared with life-history or morphological traits. This difference does not appear to be related to stronger selection on sexually selected traits. Using numerous proposed approaches to quantifying the shape, size and structure of G, we examine how these parameters relate to one another, and how they vary among taxonomic and trait groupings. Despite considerable variation, they do not explain the observed differences in evolutionary rates.     

SIMULATION‐BASED LIKELIHOOD APPROACH FOR EVOLUTIONARY MODELS OF PHENOTYPIC TRAITS ON PHYLOGENY

Phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) have been used to test evolutionary hypotheses at phenotypic levels. The evolutionary modes commonly included in PCMs are Brownian motion (genetic drift) and the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process (stabilizing selection), whose likelihood functions are mathematically tractable. More complicated models of evolutionary modes, such as branch‐specific directional selection, have not been used because calculations of likelihood and parameter estimates in the maximum‐likelihood framework are not straightforward. To solve this problem, we introduced a population genetics framework into a PCM, and here, we present a flexible and comprehensive framework for estimating evolutionary parameters through simulation‐based likelihood computations. The method does not require analytic likelihood computations, and evolutionary models can be used as long as simulation is possible. Our approach has many advantages: it incorporates different evolutionary modes for phenotypes into phylogeny, it takes intraspecific variation into account, it evaluates full likelihood instead of using summary statistics, and it can be used to estimate ancestral traits. We present a successful application of the method to the evolution of brain size in primates. Our method can be easily implemented in more computationally effective frameworks such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), which will enhance the use of computationally intensive methods in the study of phenotypic evolution.     

Multivariate Phenotypic Evolution: Divergent Acoustic Signals and Sexual Selection in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gryllus</Emphasis> Field Crickets

Predicting the response to selection is at the core of evolutionary biology. Presently, thorough understanding of the effects of selection on the multivariate phenotype is lacking, in particular for behavioral traits. Here, we compared multivariate acoustic mating signals among seven field cricket species contrasting two selection regimes: (1) species producing songs with long trains of pulses for which preference functions for acoustic energy (chirp duty cycle) are linear and likely exert strong directional selection (‘trillers’); (2) species producing songs consisting of short chirps and for which preference functions for chirp duty cycle are concave and directional selection is likely weak or absent (‘chirpers’). We compared the phenotypic variance–covariance matrix (P) among species and uncovered two main patterns: First, surprisingly, pulse rate and chirp rate were positively correlated in six of seven species thus suggesting phenotypic coupling of timescales. Second, chirp rate and chirp duty cycle also covaried, but the direction of covariation differed between chirpers (positive) and trillers (negative). Multi-population Bayesian methods for matrix comparisons, Krzanowski’s subspace comparison and tensor analysis, revealed significant variation in P unrelated to phylogenetic distance, but strongly contrasting chirpers and trillers. We also found differences in the predicted selection response between chirpers and trillers. We thus report that variation in P is higher between than within selection regimes. Although effects from drift and shared ancestry cannot be fully excluded, these findings highlight a role for sexual selection in shaping patterns of phenotypic covariation that can ultimately affect the evolutionary trajectory of a multivariate mating signal.     

The evolution of sexual dimorphism in the house finch. I. Population divergence in morphological covariance structure

Abstract Patterns of genetic variation and covariation strongly affect the rate and direction of evolutionary change by limiting the amount and form of genetic variation available to natural selection. We studied evolution of morphological variance-covariance structure among seven populations of house finches (Carpodacus mexicanus) with a known phylogenetic history. We examined the relationship between within- and among-population covariance structure and, in particular, tested the concordance between hierarchical changes in morphological variance-covariance structure and phylogenetic history of this species. We found that among-population morphological divergence in either males or females did not follow the within-population covariance patterns. Hierarchical patterns of similarity in morphological covariance matrices were not congruent with a priori defined historical pattern of population divergence. Both of these results point to the lack of proportionality in morphological covariance structure of finch populations, suggesting that random drift alone is unlikely to account for observed divergence. Furthermore, drift alone cannot explain the sex differences in within- and among-population covariance patterns or sex-specific patterns of evolution of covariance structure. Our results suggest that extensive among-population variation in sexual dimorphism in morphological covariance structure was produced by population differences in local selection pressures acting on each sex.     

Positive correlation between diversification rates and phenotypic evolvability can mimic punctuated equilibrium on molecular phylogenies

The hypothesis of punctuated equilibrium proposes that most phenotypic evolution occurs in rapid bursts associated with speciation events. Several methods have been developed that can infer punctuated equilibrium from molecular phylogenies in the absence of paleontological data. These methods essentially test whether the variance in phenotypes among extant species is better explained by evolutionary time since common ancestry or by the number of estimated speciation events separating taxa. However, apparent "punctuational" trait change can be recovered on molecular phylogenies if the rate of phenotypic evolution is correlated with the rate of speciation. Strong support for punctuational models can arise even if the underlying mode of trait evolution is strictly gradual, so long as rates of speciation and trait evolution covary across the branches of phylogenetic trees, and provided that lineages vary in their rate of speciation. Species selection for accelerated rates of ecological or phenotypic divergence can potentially lead to the perception that most trait divergence occurs in association with speciation events.     

Pattern and process: evidence for the evolution of photosynthetic traits in natural populations

The patterns of interspecific variation identified by comparative studies provide valuable hypotheses about the role of physiological traits in evolutionary adaptation. This review covers tests of these hypotheses for photosynthetic traits that have used a microevolutionary perspective to characterize physiological variation among and within populations. Studies of physiological differentiation among populations show that evolutionary divergence in photosynthetic traits is common within species, and has a pattern that supports many adaptive hypotheses. These among-population studies imply that selection has influenced photosynthetic traits in some way, but they are not designed to identify the traits targeted by selection or the environmental agents that cause selection. Analyses of genetic and phenotypic variation within populations address these questions. Studies that have quantified genetic variation within populations show that levels of heritable variation can be adequate for evolutionary change in photosynthetic traits. Other studies have measured phenotypic selection for these traits by analyzing how the variation within populations is correlated with fitness. This work has shown that selection for photosynthetic traits may often operate indirectly via correlations with other traits, and emphasizes the importance of viewing the phenotype as an integrated function of growth, morphology, life-history and physiology. We also outline some methodological problems that may be encountered for ecophysiological traits by these types of studies, provide some potential solutions, and discuss future directions for the field of plant evolutionary ecophysiology.     

MORPHOLOGICAL EVOLUTION OF THE DROSOPHILA VIRILIS SPECIES GROUP AS ASSESSED BY RATE TESTS FOR NATURAL SELECTION ON QUANTITATIVE CHARACTERS

Two rate tests for assessing natural selection on quantitative traits are discussed for their usefulness in macroevolutionary and adaptational studies. The underlying assumptions and parameter estimation for the constant-heritability (CH) and mutation-drift-equilibrium (MDE) models, which are the bases for these tests, are discussed. The purpose of these rate tests is to determine whether morphological change has occurred either too fast to be explained by neutral drift, which suggests directional selection, or too slow, which suggests stabilizing selection. Previous formulations of these rate tests have ignored the phylogenetic component. Several models of evolution are considered to help account for phylogeny in the context of rate tests. The MDE rate test for stabilizing selection was performed on nine morphological characters among several species of the Drosophila virilis species group. These tests can be interpreted to suggest that stabilizing selection has probably been a major factor in producing the observed similarity among the Drosophila species examined.     

Evolutionary stasis of a heritable morphological trait in a wild fish population despite apparent directional selection

Comparing observed versus theoretically expected evolutionary responses is important for our understanding of the evolutionary process, and for assessing how species may cope with anthropogenic change. Here, we document directional selection for larger female size in Atlantic salmon, using pedigree‐derived estimates of lifetime reproductive success as a fitness measure. We show the trait is heritable and, thus, capable of responding to selection. The Breeder's Equation, which predicts microevolution as the product of phenotypic selection and heritability, predicted evolution of larger size. This was at odds, however, with the observed lack of either phenotypic or genetic temporal trends in body size, a so‐called “paradox of stasis.” To investigate this paradox, we estimated the additive genetic covariance between trait and fitness, which provides a prediction of evolutionary change according to Robertson's secondary theorem of selection (STS) that is unbiased by missing variables. The STS prediction was consistent with the observed stasis. Decomposition of phenotypic selection gradients into genetic and environmental components revealed a potential upward bias, implying unmeasured factors that covary with trait and fitness. These results showcase the power of pedigreed, wild population studies—which have largely been limited to birds and mammals—to study evolutionary processes on contemporary timescales.     

Evolution in a changing environment: a case study with great tit fledging mass

Heritable phenotypic traits under significant and consistent directional selection often fail to show the expected evolutionary response. A potential explanation for this contradiction is that because environmental conditions change constantly, environmental change can mask an evolutionary response to selection. We combined an "animal model" analysis with 36 years of data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major) to explore selection on and evolution of a morphological trait: body mass at fledging. We found significant heritability of this trait, but despite consistent positive directional selection on both the phenotypic and the additive genetic component of body mass, the population mean phenotypic value declined rather than increased over time. However, the mean breeding value for body mass at fledging increased over time, presumably in response to selection. We show that the divergence between the response to selection observed at the levels of genotype and phenotype can be explained by a change in environmental conditions over time, that is, related both to increased spring temperature before breeding and elevated population density. Our results support the suggestion that measuring phenotypes may not always give a reliable impression of evolutionary trajectories and that understanding patterns of phenotypic evolution in nature requires an understanding of how the environment has itself changed.     

Phylogenetic analysis of correlation structure in stalk-eyed flies (Diasemopsis,Diopsidae)

Morphological divergence among species may be constrained by the pattern of genetic variances and covariances among traits within species. Assessing the existence of such a relationship in nature requires information on the stability of intraspecific correlation and covariance structure and the correspondence of this structure to the pattern of evolutionary divergence within a lineage. Here, we investigate these issues for nine morphological traits and 15 species of stalk-eyed flies in the genus Diasemopsis. Within-species matrices for these traits were generated from phenotypic data for all the Diasemopsis species and from genetic data for a single Diasemopsis species, D. dubia. The among-species pattern of divergence was assessed by calculating the evolutionary correlations for all pairwise combinations of the morphological traits along the phylogeny of these species. Comparisons of intraspecific matrices reveal significant similarity among all species in the phenotypic correlations matrices but not the covariance matrices. In addition, the differences in correlation structure that do exist among species are not related to their phylogenetic placement or change in the means of the traits. Comparisons of the phenotypic and phylogenetic matrices suggest a strong relationship between the pattern of evolutionary change among species and both the intraspecific correlation structure and the stability of this structure among species. The phenotypic and the phylogenetic matrices are significantly similar, and pairs of traits whose intraspecific correlations are more stable across taxa exhibit stronger coevolution on the phylogeny. These results suggest either the existence of strong constraints on the pattern of evolutionary change or a consistent pattern of correlated selection shaping both the phenotypic and phylogenetic matrices. The genetic correlation structure for D. dubia, however, does not correspond with patterns found in the phenotypic and phylogenetic data. Possible reasons for this disagreement are discussed.     

STABILIZING SELECTION AND THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ADAPTATION

Comparative studies tend to differ from optimality and functionality studies in how they treat adaptation. While the comparative approach focuses on the origin and change of traits, optimality studies assume that adaptations are maintained at an optimum by stabilizing selection. This paper presents a model of adaptive evolution on a macroevolutionary time scale that includes the maintenance of traits at adaptive optima by stabilizing selection as the dominant evolutionary force. Interspecific variation is treated as variation in the position of adaptive optima. The model illustrates how phylogenetic constraints not only lead to correlations between phylogenetically related species, but also to imperfect adaptations. From this model, a statistical comparative method is derived that can be used to estimate the effect of a selective factor on adaptive optima in a way that would be consistent with an optimality study of adaptation to this factor. The method is illustrated with an analysis of dental evolution in fossil horses. The use of comparative methods to study evolutionary trends is also discussed.     

Evolutionary transition between bee pollination and hummingbird pollination in Salvia: Comparing means,variances and covariances of corolla traits

Covariation among traits can modify the evolutionary trajectory of complex structures. This process is thought to operate at a microevolutionary scale, but its long‐term effects remain controversial because trait covariation can itself evolve. Flower morphology, and particularly floral trait (co)variation, has been envisioned as the product of pollinator‐mediated selection. Available evidence suggests that major changes in pollinator assemblages may affect the joint expression of floral traits and their phenotypic integration. We expect species within a monophyletic lineage sharing the same pollinator type will show not only similarity in trait means but also similar phenotypic variance‐covariance structures. Here, we tested this expectation using eighteen Salvia species pollinated either by bees or by hummingbirds. Our findings indicated a nonsignificant multivariate phylogenetic signal and a decoupling between means and variance‐covariance phenotypic matrices of floral traits during the evolution to hummingbird pollination. Mean trait value analyses revealed significant differences between bee‐ and hummingbird‐pollinated Salvia species although fewer differences were detected in the covariance structure between groups. Variance‐covariance matrices were much more similar among bee‐ than hummingbird‐pollinated species. This pattern is consistent with the expectation that, unlike hummingbirds, bees physically manipulate the flower, presumably exerting stronger selection pressures favouring morphological convergence among species. Overall, we conclude that the evolution of hummingbird pollination proceeded through different independent transitions. Thus, although the evolution of hummingbird pollination led to a new phenotypic optimum, the process involved the diversification of the covariance structure.