Distribution dynamics of a great bustard metapopulation throughout a decade: influence of conspecific attraction and recruitment

Dispersing individuals can use conspecifics as indicators of habitat quality and aggregate at traditionally occupied sites, leaving other favourable patches unoccupied. Here we test the predictions of the conspecific-based habitat selection hypothesis on a Spanish great bustard (Otis tarda) metapopulation, currently fragmented due to recent human-induced habitat changes. The number of birds had increased by 23% between 1988 and 1998, but not consistently among leks. Leks that were large in 1988 increased, while those that were small decreased, which suggests that dispersing individuals used the numbers of conspecifics as cues for breeding-site selection. Moreover, leks with high productivity increased, while those with low productivity decreased. Finally, lek distribution was markedly stable throughout the decade, with no establishment of new leks, and suitable habitat patches remained unoccupied, as predicted by the conspecific attraction hypothesis. These results were corroborated by a simulation model which incorporated natal dispersal rates between leks as obtained through radio-tracking of 15 birds that survived throughout their 4-year dispersal period. In conclusion, in spite of the apparent increase in total numbers throughout the decade, both conspecific attraction and local differences in reproductive success contributed to a more aggregated distribution, increasing the species' vulnerability to local catastrophes, and the risks of reduced genetic diversity and extinction of small leks.     

生境破坏的模式对集合种群动态和续存的影响

构建了空间关联的集合种群模型,该模型不但包含了种群的空间结构信息,而且引入了破坏生境的全局密度和局部密度两个指标,它们描述了破坏生境的模式.模型揭示了破坏生境的空间分布格局复杂地影响了集合种群的动态和续存,破坏和未破坏生境斑块的均匀混合不利于集合种群的增长和续存,而生境类型聚集分布可以促进集合种群的快速增长和长期续存;对于两种斑块类型相对均匀混合的生境来说,均匀场假设可能会高估集合种群的续存,对于相对斑块类型高度聚集的生境,均匀场假设可能会低估集合种群的续存;物种的迁移范围也会影响集合种群的续存,迁移范围越大的物种越容易抵御生境的破坏而免遭灭绝.这意味着在生物保护中不能仅仅考虑生境的恢复和斑块质量的改善,生境结构的构建也是很重要的,加强生境斑块之间的连通性也有利于物种的长期续存.     

Frequency-dependent conspecific attraction to food patches

In many ecological situations, resources are difficult to find but become more apparent to nearby searchers after one of their numbers discovers and begins to exploit them. If the discoverer cannot monopolize the resources, then others may benefit from joining the discoverer and sharing their discovery. Existing theories for this type of conspecific attraction have often used very simple rules for how the decision to join a discovered resource patch should be influenced by the number of individuals already exploiting that patch. We use a mechanistic, spatially explicit model to demonstrate that individuals should not necessarily simply join patches more often as the number of individuals exploiting the patch increases, because those patches are likely to be exhausted soon or joining them will intensify future local competition. Furthermore, we show that this decision should be sensitive to the nature of the resource patches, with individuals being more responsive to discoveries in general and more tolerant of larger numbers of existing exploiters on a patch when patches are resource-rich and challenging to locate alone. As such, we argue that this greater focus on underlying joining mechanisms suggests that conspecific attraction is a more sophisticated and flexible tactic than currently appreciated.     

Assessing human impact despite uncertainty:viability of the northern spotted owl metapopulation in the northwestern USA

We demonstrate the effect of uncertainty (resulting from lack of information or measurement error) on the assessment of human impact, with an analysis of the viability of the northern spotted owl throughout its range in the United States. We developed a spatially-explicit, stage-structured, stochastic metapopulation model of the northern spotted owl throughout its range in the United States. We evaluated the viability of the metapopulation using measures such as risk of decline and time to extinction. We incorporated uncertainty in the form of parameter ranges, and used them to estimate upper and lower bounds on the estimated viability of the species. We analysed the effect of this type of uncertainty on the assessment of human impact by comparing the species' viability under current conditions and under an assumed loss of spotted owl habitat in the next 100 years. The ranges of parameters were quite large and resulted in a wide range of risks of extinction. Despite this uncertainty, the results were sensitive to parameters related to habitat loss: under all assumptions and combinations of parameters, the model predicted that habitat loss results in substantially higher risks of metapopulation decline. This result demonstrated that even with relatively large uncertainties, risk-based model results can be used to assess human impact reliably.     

Alternative models of conspecific attraction in flies and crabs

Animals are often attracted to one another when selecting habitats,but little is known about the rules governing conspecific attraction.We use Akaike Information Criterion to evaluate alternativemodels of the effects of conspecifics on individual choice inthe context of habitat selection. One set of models was testedusing data collected on virgin female flies, Drosophila melanogaster,selecting habitats in the laboratory; a second set of modelswas tested using data collected on crabs, Ocypode rotundata,selecting foraging patches in the field. Patterns of space usein the flies were most consistent with models indicating thatindividuals were attracted to other females that selected trapsduring the same hour, as well as to cues left by females thathad entered traps during the previous hour. Results for thecrabs were most consistent with a model which assumes that individualspreferred to join the patch with the most crabs but that theirability to assess the number of crabs in alternative patcheswas constrained by basic psychophysical principles (Weber'slaw). These results provide support for hypotheses about thefunctional significance of conspecific attraction in the fliesand the crabs and illustrate the richness of information aboutconspecific attraction that can be obtained when the same dataset is confronted with alternative models of the ways that animalsrespond to one another when selecting habitats.     

Structured models of metapopulation dynamics

I develop models of metapopulation dynamics that describe changes in the numbers of individuals within patches. These models are analogous to structured population models, with patches playing the role of individuals. Single species models which do not include the effect of immigration on local population dynamics of occupied patches typically lead to a unique equilibrium. The models can be used to study the distributions of numbers of individuals among patches, showing that both metapopulations with local outbreaks and metapopulations without outbreaks can occur in systems with no underlying environmental variability. Distributions of local population sizes (in occupied patches) can vary independently of the total population size, so both patterns of distributions of local population sizes are compatible with either rare or common species. Models which include the effect of immigration on local population dynamics can lead to two positive equilibria, one stable and one unstable, the latter representing a threshold between regional extinction and persistence.     

集聚效应下的集合种群动力模式

引入种群集聚度和集聚效应的概念,通过建立物种的集聚效应模型,结合经典的Tilman集合种群模式,创建了集聚效应下的集合种群动力模式。通过大量的数值模拟分析栖息地未毁坏下的集合种群演化规律与集聚效应的关系,得到:(1)即使生境没有毁坏,种群的集聚效应也会影响种群的演化。(2)集合种群系统中不同种群对集聚效应反应有异同,相同点是各种群都要经历一段准周期波动才达到平衡态。不同点是不同种群对集聚效应反应的强度不一致,竞争能力越强的种群准周期波动的振幅越大,频率越低。竞争能力越弱的种群准周期波动的振幅越小,频率越高。(3)不同的群落对集聚效应的响应也不一致。优势种群相对明显的群落对集聚效应的响应幅度相对较小。(4)在优势种群明显的群落中,集聚效应对弱物种非常不利,弱物种很有可能由于集聚效应而灭绝。(5)群落或n集合种群里的各种群的集聚效应和建群种(或最优势种)的强弱是决定景观生态序的最为重要的2个因素。(6)每个物种对不同的不适集聚程度的响应不一致。不适集聚程度越大,物种演化波动幅度越大,频率越高。     

Effects of altered river network connectivity on the distribution of Salmo trutta: Insights from a metapopulation model

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The influence of habitat characteristics and conspecifics on attraction and survival of coral reef fish juveniles

In marine species with a pelagic larval stage, search behavior and selection of a suitable reef habitat can maximize the settlement success of recently settled juveniles and their subsequent performance (growth and survival of juveniles). Our objective was to test this hypothesis for a single target coral reef fish species (Chromis viridis) at Moorea Island. C. viridis settle on living coral colonies of Porites rus already populated with conspecifics. In the present study (conducted in experimental cages), we found that: 1) mortality rate of recently settled juveniles of C. viridis was lower in the settlement habitat (living coral colonies of P. rus) than in other habitats having physical structure different from those of P. rus colonies; 2) C. viridis juveniles preferentially colonized coral heads of P. rus with conspecifics present rather than uninhabited coral heads and they also preferentially colonized uninhabited coral heads rather than coral heads with heterospecifics; 3) mortality rate of C. viridis juveniles did not vary with the presence or absence of conspecifics or heterospecifics on P. rus colonies. Overall, the study allows us to highlight that site selection by juveniles for habitat containing conspecifics does not benefit their short term mortality rates, suggesting that in the short term at least, site selection has little importance.     

A review of conspecific attraction for habitat selection across taxa

Many species across taxa select habitat based on conspecific presence, known as conspecific attraction. Studies that document conspecific attraction typically provide social information (i.e., cues that indicate the presence of a given species) and then determine if a given species is more likely to settle at locations where the social information is provided compared to those locations that do not. Although the number of studies examining conspecific attraction has grown in recent years, a comprehensive review has not yet been undertaken. Here, we conducted a review of the literature and found 151 studies investigating conspecific attraction across eight taxa. We found that conspecific attraction is widespread with between 80% and 100% of studies, depending on taxa, documenting positive associations between habitat selection and the presence of conspecific cues. Conspecific attraction has been documented more frequently in bird and fish species with less attention given to invertebrate and mammal species. We use the patterns we found to (a) provide an overview of the current state of research on conspecific attraction and (b) discuss how important factors, such as cue characteristics and life history traits, may play a role in shaping conspecific attraction patterns within and across taxa.     

Simple discrete-time metapopulation models of patch occupancy

Simple models in theoretical ecology have a long-standing history of being used to understand how specific processes influence population dynamics as well as providing a foundation for future endeavors. The Levins model is the seminal example of this for continuous-time metapopulation dynamics. However, many natural populations have a distinct separation between processes and data is not collected continuously leading to the need for using a discrete-time model. Our goal is to develop a simple discrete-time metapopulation model of patch occupancy using difference equations. In our formulation, we consider the two fundamental processes of colonization and extinction that will be treated as sequential events and will only consider patch occupancy. To achieve this, we use a composition of two functions where one will reflect the extinction process and the other for the colonization process. Under some mild assumptions, we are able determine the dynamic behavior of the metapopulation. In addition, we provide numerous examples for the functions used to emulate the colonization and extinction processes. Our results illustrate that the dynamics of the model are tied to properties such as convexity and monotonicity of the colonization and extinction functions. In particular, if the model is non-monotone, then complex dynamics can arise such as cyclic and even chaotic behavior. Overall, our approach shows how certain properties of the colonization and extinction functions can influence metapopulation dynamics.     

Population dynamics of epiphytic orchids in a metapopulation context

Background and Aims

Populations of many epiphytes show a patchy distribution where clusters of plants growing on individual trees are spatially separated and may thus function as metapopulations. Seed dispersal is necessary to (re)colonize unoccupied habitats, and to transfer seeds from high- to low-competition patches. Increasing dispersal distances, however, reduces local fecundity and the probability that seeds will find a safe site outside the original patch. Thus, there is a conflict between seed survival and colonization.

Methods

Populations of three epiphytic orchids were monitored over three years in a Mexican humid montane forest and analysed with spatially averaged and with spatially explicit matrix metapopulation models. In the latter, population dynamics at the scale of the subpopulations (epiphytes on individual host trees) are based on detailed stage-structured observations of transition probabilities and trees are connected by a dispersal function.

Key Results

Population growth rates differed among trees and years. While ignoring these differences, and averaging the population matrices over trees, yields negative population growth, metapopulation models predict stable or growing populations because the trees that support growing subpopulations determine the growth of the metapopulation. Stochastic models which account for the differences among years differed only marginally from deterministic models. Population growth rates were significantly lower, and extinctions of local patches more frequent in models where higher dispersal results in reduced local fecundity compared with hypothetical models where this is not the case. The difference between the two models increased with increasing mean dispersal distance. Though recolonization events increased with dispersal distance, this could not compensate the losses due to reduced local fecundity.

Conclusions

For epiphytes, metapopulation models are useful to capture processes beyond the level of the single host tree, but local processes are equally important to understand epiphyte population dynamics.     

How interactions between animal movement and landscape processes modify local range dynamics and extinction risk

Forecasts of range dynamics now incorporate many of the mechanisms and interactions that drive species distributions. However, connectivity continues to be simulated using overly simple distance-based dispersal models with little consideration of how the individual behaviour of dispersing organisms interacts with landscape structure (functional connectivity). Here, we link an individual-based model to a niche-population model to test the implications of this omission. We apply this novel approach to a turtle species inhabiting wetlands which are patchily distributed across a tropical savannah, and whose persistence is threatened by two important synergistic drivers of global change: predation by invasive species and overexploitation. We show that projections of local range dynamics in this study system change substantially when functional connectivity is modelled explicitly. Accounting for functional connectivity in model simulations causes the estimate of extinction risk to increase, and predictions of range contraction to slow. We conclude that models of range dynamics that simulate functional connectivity can reduce an important source of bias in predictions of shifts in species distributions and abundances, especially for organisms whose dispersal behaviours are strongly affected by landscape structure.     

Linking extinction-colonization dynamics to genetic structure in a salamander metapopulation

Theory predicts that founder effects have a primary role in determining metapopulation genetic structure. However, ecological factors that affect extinction-colonization dynamics may also create spatial variation in the strength of genetic drift and migration. We tested the hypothesis that ecological factors underlying extinction-colonization dynamics influenced the genetic structure of a tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) metapopulation. We used empirical data on metapopulation dynamics to make a priori predictions about the effects of population age and ecological factors on genetic diversity and divergence among 41 populations. Metapopulation dynamics of A. tigrinum depended on wetland area, connectivity and presence of predatory fish. We found that newly colonized populations were more genetically differentiated than established populations, suggesting that founder effects influenced genetic structure. However, ecological drivers of metapopulation dynamics were more important than age in predicting genetic structure. Consistent with demographic predictions from metapopulation theory, genetic diversity and divergence depended on wetland area and connectivity. Divergence was greatest in small, isolated wetlands where genetic diversity was low. Our results show that ecological factors underlying metapopulation dynamics can be key determinants of spatial genetic structure, and that habitat area and isolation may mediate the contributions of drift and migration to divergence and evolution in local populations.     

Metapopulations of moths on islands: a test of two contrasting models

1. We describe a generalized mainland-island metapopulation model which includes migration among the island populations. We test model predictions with quantitative data on more than 200 species of moths in two contrasting networks of small islands. The data include a direct measure of migration rate, based on trapping of moths on rocky skerries with no local populations of the vast majority of species.
2. We predicted that moths which are strong fliers but uncommon on the islands have a higher incidence on scattered islands than on islands in a group, because the latter 'compete' for immigrants from the mainland. In contrast, we predicted that weakly flying species with potentially large local populations on the islands occur more frequently on islands in a group due to enhanced colonization rate.
3. Both predicted patterns were observed. Island occupancy increased significantly with the number of individuals caught on the rocky skerries, which is our measure of migration rate from the mainland, supporting the basic assumption that the species occur on the islands in a balance between colonizations and extinctions.
4. These results demonstrate that the moth metapopulations on islands represent a mixture of Levins's and mainland-island metapopulations, and that the mixture is different for different species in the same landscape.     

Increasing frequency of low summer precipitation synchronizes dynamics and compromises metapopulation stability in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

Climate change is known to shift species'' geographical ranges, phenologies and abundances, but less is known about other population dynamic consequences. Here, we analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in a network of 4000 dry meadows during 21 years. The results demonstrate two strong, related patterns: the amplitude of year-to-year fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole has increased, though there is no long-term trend in average abundance; and there is a highly significant increase in the level of spatial synchrony in population dynamics. The increased synchrony cannot be explained by increasing within-year spatial correlation in precipitation, the key environmental driver of population change, or in per capita growth rate. On the other hand, the frequency of drought during a critical life-history stage (early larval instars) has increased over the years, which is sufficient to explain the increasing amplitude and the expanding spatial synchrony in metapopulation dynamics. Increased spatial synchrony has the general effect of reducing long-term metapopulation viability even if there is no change in average metapopulation size. This study demonstrates how temporal changes in weather conditions can lead to striking changes in spatio-temporal population dynamics.     

The evolution of conspecific gamete precedence and its effect on reinforcement

Conspecific gamete precedence, the usage of conspecific sperm by a female that mates with both a conspecific and a heterospecific male, has been found in many taxa. We construct a population genetic model to examine the evolution of conspecific gamete precedence and its coevolution with premating isolation in the process of reinforcement. Our findings suggest that conspecific gamete precedence can evolve via a process very similar to reinforcement. We explore the nature of the selection against hybridization necessary to drive this evolution. Moreover, our results confirm the prediction of Marshall et al. (Trends Ecol. Evol. 2002;17:558-563) that conspecific gamete precedence will inhibit the evolution of reinforcement between two species. We further find that reinforcement will inhibit the evolution of conspecific gamete precedence. Both reinforcement and conspecific gamete precedence increase reproductive isolation and contribute to the process of speciation. We discuss factors that may affect which of these phenomena are likely to become predominant between incipient species.     

集合种群动态对栖息地毁坏时空异质性的响应

栖息地毁坏既有时间异质性,也有空间异质性,而以往的研究往往只关注其中的一种。将两种不同的异质性共同引入到元胞自动机中,模拟了集合种群动态对栖息地毁坏时空异质性的响应。发现,在随机离散的栖息地毁坏下,由于物种的迁移繁殖力受栖息地毁坏的影响很大,迁移繁殖力弱而竞争力强的物种先灭绝。在连续的栖息地毁坏下,物种的迁移繁殖力受栖息地毁坏的影响较小,物种的灭绝由竞争力和迁移繁殖力共同决定:在有绝对优势种的群落里,种间竞争显著,弱物种先灭绝,而在没有绝对优势种的群落里,种间竞争较小,则以强物种先灭绝。因此,随机毁坏不利于强物种续存,而连续毁坏则不利于具有绝对优势种群的群落里的弱物种续存。在实际开发某一栖息地时,根据集合种群结构和被保护的对象采取相应的开发模式。