Multiple glacial refugia for cool‐temperate deciduous trees in northern East Asia: the Mongolian oak as a case study

In East Asia, temperate forests are predicted to have retracted southward to c. 30° N during the last glacial maximum (LGM) based on fossil pollen data, whereas phylogeographic studies have often suggested glacial in situ survival of cool‐temperate deciduous trees in their modern northern ranges. Here we report a study of the genetic diversity and structure of 29 natural Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) populations using 19 nuclear simple sequence repeat (nSSR) loci and four chloroplast DNA fragments. Bayesian clustering analysis with nSSRs revealed five groups, which were inferred by approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to have diverged in multiple refugia through multiple glacial–interglacial cycles. Analysis of chloroplast DNA variation revealed four lineages that were largely but incompletely geographically disjunct. Ecological niche modelling (ENMs) indicated a southward range shift of the oak's distribution at the LGM, although high suitability scores were also evident in the Changbai Mts. (Northeast China), the Korean Peninsula, areas surrounding the Bohai Sea, and along the coast of the Russian Far East. In addition, endemic chloroplast DNA haplotypes and nuclear lineages occurred in high‐latitude northern areas where the ENM predicted no suitable habitat. The combined evidence from nuclear and chloroplast DNA, and the results of the ENM clearly demonstrate that multiple northern refugia, including cryptic ones, were maintained across the current distributional range of the Mongolian oak during the LGM or earlier glacial periods. Though spatially limited, postglacial expansions from these refugia have led to a pattern of decreased genetic diversity with increasing latitude.     

Identification of glacial refugia in south-eastern North America by phylogeographical analyses of a forest understorey plant, Trillium cuneatum

Aim We examine several hypotheses emerging from biogeographical and fossil records regarding glacial refugia of a southern thermophilic plant species. Specifically, we investigated the glacial history and post‐glacial colonization of a forest understorey species, Trillium cuneatum. We focused on the following questions: (1) Did T. cuneatum survive the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in multiple refugia, and (if so) where were they located, and is the modern genetic structure congruent with the fossil record‐based reconstruction of refugia for mesic deciduous forests? (2) What are the post‐glacial colonization patterns in the present geographical range? Location South‐eastern North America. Methods We sampled 45 populations of T. cuneatum throughout its current range. We conducted phylogeographical analyses based on maternally inherited chloroplast DNA (cpDNA haplotypes) and used TCS software to reconstruct intraspecific phylogeny. Results We detected six cpDNA haplotypes, geographically highly structured into non‐overlapping areas. With one exception, none of the populations had mixed haplotype composition. TCS analysis resulted in two intraspecific cpDNA lineages, with one clade subdivided further by shallower diversification. Main conclusions Our investigation revealed that T. cuneatum survived the LGM in multiple refugia, belonging to two (western, eastern) genealogical lineages geographically structured across south‐eastern North America. The western clade is confined to the south‐western corner of T. cuneatum’s modern range along the Lower Mississippi Valley, where fossil records document a major refugium of mesic deciduous forest. For the eastern clade, modern patterns of cpDNA haplotype distribution suggest cryptic vicariance, in the form of forest contractions and subsequent expansions associated with Pleistocene glacial cycles, rather than simple southern survival and subsequent northward colonization. The north–south partitioning of cpDNA haplotypes was unexpected, suggesting that populations of this rather southern thermophilic species may have survived in more northern locations than initially expected based on LGM climate reconstruction, and that the Appalachian Mountains functioned as a barrier to the dispersal of propagules originating in more southern refugia. Furthermore, our results reveal south‐west to north‐east directionality in historical migration through the Valley and Ridge region of north‐west Georgia.     

Influence of late Quaternary climate change on present patterns of genetic variation in valley oak,Quercus lobata Née

Phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs) suggest that late Quaternary glacial cycles have played a prominent role in shaping present population genetic structure and diversity, but have not applied quantitative methods to dissect the relative contribution of past and present climate vs. other forces. We integrate multilocus phylogeography, climate‐based ENMs and multivariate statistical approaches to infer the effects of late Quaternary climate change on contemporary genetic variation of valley oak (Quercus lobata Née). ENMs indicated that valley oak maintained a stable distribution with local migration from the last interglacial period (~120 ka) to the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka, LGM) to the present compared with large‐scale range shifts for an eastern North American white oak (Quercus alba L.). Coast Range and Sierra Nevada foothill populations diverged in the late Pleistocene before the LGM [104 ka (28–1622)] and have occupied somewhat distinct climate niches, according to ENMs and coalescent analyses of divergence time. In accordance with neutral expectations for stable populations, nuclear microsatellite diversity positively correlated with niche stability from the LGM to present. Most strikingly, nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite variation significantly correlated with LGM climate, even after controlling for associations with geographic location and present climate using partial redundancy analyses. Variance partitioning showed that LGM climate uniquely explains a similar proportion of genetic variance as present climate (16% vs. 11–18%), and together, past and present climate explains more than geography (19%). Climate can influence local expansion–contraction dynamics, flowering phenology and thus gene flow, and/or impose selective pressures. These results highlight the lingering effect of past climate on genetic variation in species with stable distributions.     

Ice age legacies in the geographical distribution of tree species richness in Europe

Aim This study uses a high‐resolution simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate to assess: (1) whether LGM climate still affects the geographical species richness patterns in the European tree flora and (2) the relative importance of modern and LGM climate as controls of tree species richness in Europe. Location The parts of Europe that were unglaciated during the LGM. Methods Atlas data on the distributions of 55 tree species were linked with data on modern and LGM climate and climatic heterogeneity in a geographical information system with a 60‐km grid. Four measures of species richness were computed: total richness, and richness of the 18 most restricted species, 19 species of medium incidence (intermediate species) and 18 most widespread species. We used ordinary least‐squares regression and spatial autoregressive modelling to test and estimate the richness–climate relationships. Results LGM climate constituted the best single set of explanatory variables for richness of restricted species, while modern climate and climatic heterogeneity was best for total and widespread species richness and richness of intermediate species, respectively. The autoregressive model with all climatic predictors was supported for all richness measures using an information‐theoretic approach, albeit only weakly so for total species richness. Among the strongest relationships were increases in total and intermediate richness with climatic heterogeneity and in restricted richness with LGM growing‐degree‐days. Partial regression showed that climatic heterogeneity accounted for the largest unique variation fraction for intermediate richness, while LGM climate was particularly important for restricted richness. Main conclusions LGM climate appears to still affect geographical patterns of tree species richness in Europe, albeit the relative importance of modern and LGM climate depends on range size. Notably, LGM climate is a strong richness control for species with a restricted range, which appear to still be associated with their glacial refugia.     

Strong paleoclimatic legacies in current plant functional diversity patterns across Europe

Numerous studies indicate that environmental changes during the late Quaternary have elicited long‐term disequilibria between species diversity and environment. Despite its importance for ecosystem functioning, the importance of historical environmental conditions as determinants of FD (functional diversity) remains largely unstudied. We quantified the geographic distributions of plant FD (richness and dispersion) across Europe using distribution and functional trait information for 2702 plant species. We then compared the importance of historical and contemporary factors to determine the relevance of past conditions as predictors of current plant FD in Europe. For this, we compared the strength of the relationships between FD with temperature and precipitation stability since the LGM (Last Glacial Maximum), accessibility to LGM refugia, and contemporary environmental conditions (climate, productivity, soil, topography, and land use). Functional richness and dispersion exhibited geographic patterns with strong associations to the environmental history of the region. The effect size of accessibility to LGM refugia and climate stability since the LGM was comparable to that of the contemporary predictors. Both functional richness and dispersion increased with temperature stability since the LGM and accessibility to LGM refugia. Functional richness' geographic pattern was primarily associated with accessibility to LGM refugia growing degree‐days, land use heterogeneity, diversity of soil types, and absolute minimum winter temperature. Functional dispersion's geographic pattern was primarily associated with accessibility to LGM refugia growing degree‐days and absolute minimum winter temperature. The high explained variance and model support of historical predictors are consistent with the idea that long‐term variability in environmental conditions supplements contemporary factors in shaping FD patterns at continental scales. Given the importance of FD for ecosystem functioning, future climate change may elicit not just short‐term shifts in ecosystem functioning, but also long‐term functional disequilibria.     

Genetic and morphological variation in a Mediterranean glacial refugium: evidence from Italian pygmy shrews,Sorex minutus (Mammalia: Soricomorpha)

At the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the southern European peninsulas were important refugia for temperate species. Current genetic subdivision of species within these peninsulas may reflect past population subdivision at the LGM, as in ‘refugia within refugia’, and/or at other time periods. In the present study, we assess whether pygmy shrew populations from different regions within Italy are genetically and morphologically distinct. One maternally and two paternally inherited molecular markers (cytochrome b and Y‐chromosome introns, respectively) were analysed using several phylogenetic methods. A geometric morphometric analysis was performed on mandibles to evaluate size and shape variability between populations. Mandible shape was also explored with a functional approach that considered the mandible as a first‐order lever affecting bite force. We found genetically and morphologically distinct European, Italian, and southern Italian groups. Mandible size increased with decreasing latitude and southern Italian pygmy shrews exhibited mandibles with the strongest bite force. It is not clear whether or not the southern Italian and Italian groups of pygmy shrews occupied different refugia within the Italian peninsula at the LGM. It is likely, however, that geographic isolation earlier than the LGM on islands at the site of present‐day Calabria was important in generating the distinctive southern Italian group of pygmy shrews, and also the genetic groups in other small vertebrates that we review here. Calabria is an important hotspot for genetic diversity, and is worthy of conservation attention. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 100 , 774–787.     

Pleistocene climate changes shaped the divergence and demography of Asian populations of the great tit Parus major: evidence from phylogeographic analysis and ecological niche models

Different scales and frequencies of glaciations developed in Europe and Asia during the Pleistocene. Because species’ responses to climate change are influenced by interactive factors including ecology and local topography, the pattern and tempo of species diversification may vary significantly across regions. The great tit Parus major is a widespread Eurasian passerine with a range that encircles the central Asian desert and high‐altitude areas of the Tibetan Plateau. A number of genetic studies have assessed the effect of paleo‐climate changes on the distribution of the European population. However, none have comprehensively addressed how paleo‐climate change affected the distribution of the great tit in China, an apparent hotspot of P. major subspecific diversity. Here, we describe likely paleo‐climatic effects on P. major populations in China based on a combination of phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs). We sequenced three mitochondrial DNA markers from 28 populations (213 individuals), and downloaded 112 sequences from outside its Chinese range. As the first step in clarifying the intra‐specific relationships among haplotypes, we attempted to clarify the divergence and demography of populations in China. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that P. major is comprised of five highly divergent clades with geographic breaks corresponding to steep mountains and dry deserts. A previously undescribed monophyletic clade with high genetic diversity, stable niches and a long and independent evolutionary history was detected in the mountainous areas of southwest China. The estimated times at which these clades diverged was traced back to the Early‐Middle Pleistocene (2.19–0.61 mya). Contrary to the post‐LGM (the Last Glacial Maximum) expansion of European populations, demographic history indicates that Asian populations expanded before the LGM after which they remained relatively stable or grew slowly through the LGM. ENMs support this conclusion and predict a similar distribution in the present and the LGM. Our genetic and ecological results demonstrate that Pleistocene climate changes shaped the divergence and demography of P. major in China.     

Identifying Pleistocene refugia in North American cold deserts using phylogeographic analyses and ecological niche modelling

Aim We analysed phylogeographic patterns and ecological niche models (ENMs) of the widespread velvet ant (Hymenoptera: Mutillidae) Sphaeorpthalma difficilis to understand the history of diversification in the Nearctic deserts and to identify areas that may have been cold‐desert refugia during the Pleistocene. These areas should be targeted for conservation because of their climatic stability throughout historical climate change events. Location North American arid regions. Methods The two internal transcribed spacer regions (ITS1 and ITS2) were sequenced and analysed using Bayesian techniques to uncover phylogeographic patterns of relatedness among S. difficilis populations. History of diversification was estimated using parsimony‐based and maximum likelihood character reconstructions. Molecular dating analyses were implemented in the program r8s and were calibrated with Dominican amber fossils. ENMs were developed based on current climate data and projected onto Pleistocene climate surfaces. Results The analyses suggest that S. difficilis had a complex history of Pleistocene range expansion and contraction that led to the formation of genetically distinct populations inhabiting distinct arid regions. ENMs and phylogeographic patterns indicate that several cold‐desert refugia existed in North America, particularly in the Colorado Plateau and parts of the Great Basin Desert. Main conclusions Analyses of S. difficilis are used to identify potential Pleistocene refugia in the North American cold deserts. Because these areas represent climatically stable locations, they are critical for the long‐term persistence of biodiversity. This research provides evidence that in addition to desert‐like conditions persisting through the ice age in parts of the Nearctic warm deserts, many areas maintained desert‐like characteristics in the regional cold deserts. Further work is needed to elucidate options for preserving biodiversity in these cold‐desert refugia.     

Population genomic evidence for multiple Pliocene refugia in a montane‐restricted harvestman (Arachnida,Opiliones, Sclerobunus robustus) from the southwestern United States

The integration of ecological niche modelling into phylogeographic analyses has allowed for the identification and testing of potential refugia under a hypothesis‐based framework, where the expected patterns of higher genetic diversity in refugial populations and evidence of range expansion of nonrefugial populations are corroborated with empirical data. In this study, we focus on a montane‐restricted cryophilic harvestman, Sclerobunus robustus, distributed throughout the heterogeneous Southern Rocky Mountains and Intermontane Plateau of southwestern North America. We identified hypothetical refugia using ecological niche models (ENMs) across three time periods, corroborated these refugia with population genetic methods using double‐digest RAD‐seq data and conducted population‐level phylogenetic and divergence dating analyses. ENMs identify two large temporally persistent regions in the mid‐latitude highlands. Genetic patterns support these two hypothesized refugia with higher genetic diversity within refugial populations and evidence for range expansion in populations found outside hypothesized refugia. Phylogenetic analyses identify five to six genetically divergent, geographically cohesive clades of S. robustus. Divergence dating analyses suggest that these separate refugia date to the Pliocene and that divergence between clades pre‐dates the late Pleistocene glacial cycles, while diversification within clades was likely driven by these cycles. Population genetic analyses reveal effects of both isolation by distance (IBD) and isolation by environment (IBE), with IBD more important in the continuous mountainous portion of the distribution, while IBE was stronger in the populations inhabiting the isolated sky islands of the south. Using model‐based coalescent approaches, we find support for postdivergence migration between clades from separate refugia.     

Competitive interactions between felid species may limit the southern distribution of bobcats Lynx rufus

Bobcats are opportunistic felids occurring in a diverse range of habitats and with a widespread distribution from southern Canada to southern Mexico. To explore why the bobcat's distribution stops at the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, we modelled the ecological niches, projected as potential distributions, of the felid community (bobcat Lynx rufus, puma Puma concolor, jaguar Panthera onca, margay Leopardus wiedii, jaguarundi Herpailurus yagouaroundi, and ocelot Leopardus pardalis) in southern Mexico, using occurrence data, environmental maps, the computer algorithm GARP, and a GIS platform. The resulting geographical projection of the ecological niche of bobcats extends south of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, suggesting that ecological conditions exist for the establishment of populations. The overlap of the modelled distribution of the bobcat was large with that of the puma (97%), but low with that of the ocelot (44%), margay (46%), jaguar (49%), and jaguarundi (52%), the latter three having relatively similar size and feeding habits to bobcats. Moreover, an independent analysis computing a geographic co‐occurrence index showed a similar trend of geographic avoidance (values 0.15), while all felids, except bobcats, showed a geographic co‐occurrence in southern Mexico (values ranging from ?1.91 to 4.71). The Isthmus of Tehuantepec, a lowland region with subtropical habitat, is unlikely to serve as a geographic and ecological barrier to bobcats. As mammal inventories have been conducted for over a century in this region with no records of bobcats, it is unlikely that bobcats are present but have just not been seen. Fossil records also provide no support for the presence of bobcats in that region in the past. Thus, competitive interactions with other felid species appear important in limiting the southern distribution of bobcats, preventing dispersal to a suitable but geographically reduced area south of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.     

Palaeodistribution modelling does not support disjunct Pleistocene refugia in several Central American plant taxa

Aim We combine evidence from palaeoniche modelling studies of several tree species to estimate the extent of Central American forest during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). In particular, we ask whether the distributions of these species are likely to have changed since the LGM, and whether LGM distributions coincide with previously proposed Pleistocene refugia in this area. Location Central American wet and seasonally dry forests. Methods We developed ecological niche models using two simulations of Pleistocene climate and occurrence data for 15 Neotropical plant species. We focused on palaeodistribution models of three ‘focal’ tree species that occur in wet and seasonally dry Central American forests, where recent phylogeographic data suggest Pleistocene differentiation coincident with previously proposed refugia. We added predictions from six wet‐forest and six seasonally dry‐forest obligate plant species to gauge whether Pleistocene range shifts were specific to habitat type. Correlation analyses were performed between projected LGM and present distributions, LGM distributions and previously proposed refugia. We also asked whether modelled palaeodistributions were smaller than their current extents. Results According to our models, the ranges of the study species were not reduced during the LGM, and did not correlate with refugial models, regardless of habitat type. Relative range sizes between present and LGM distributions did not indicate significant range changes since the LGM. However, relative range sizes differed overall between the two palaeoclimate models. Main conclusions Many of the modelled palaeodistributions of study species were not restricted to refugia during the LGM, regardless of forest type. While constrained from higher elevations, most species found suitable habitat at coastal margins and on newly exposed land due to lowered sea levels during the LGM. These results offer no corroboration for Pleistocene climate change as a driver of genetic differentiation in the ‘focal’ species. We offer alternative explanations for genetic differentiation found in plant species in this area.     

Niche differentiation in a postglacial colonizer,the bank vole Clethrionomys glareolus

Species‐level environmental niche modeling has been crucial in efforts to understand how species respond to climate variation and change. However, species often exhibit local adaptation and intraspecific niche differences that may be important to consider in predicting responses to climate. Here, we explore whether phylogeographic lineages of the bank vole originating from different glacial refugia (Carpathian, Western, Eastern, and Southern) show niche differentiation, which would suggest a role for local adaptation in biogeography of this widespread Eurasian small mammal. We first model the environmental requirements for the bank vole using species‐wide occurrences (210 filtered records) and then model each lineage separately to examine niche overlap and test for niche differentiation in geographic and environmental space. We then use the models to estimate past [Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and mid‐Holocene] habitat suitability to compare with previously hypothesized glacial refugia for this species. Environmental niches are statistically significantly different from each other for all pairs of lineages in geographic and environmental space, and these differences cannot be explained by habitat availability within their respective ranges. Together with the inability of most of the lineages to correctly predict the distributions of other lineages, these results support intraspecific ecological differentiation in the bank vole. Model projections of habitat suitability during the LGM support glacial survival of the bank vole in the Mediterranean region and in central and western Europe. Niche differences between lineages and the resulting spatial segregation of habitat suitability suggest ecological differentiation has played a role in determining the present phylogeographic patterns in the bank vole. Our study illustrates that models pooling lineages within a species may obscure the potential for different responses to climate change among populations.     

Postglacial recolonization of North America by spadefoot toads: integrating niche and corridor modeling to study species’ range dynamics over geologic time

Understanding the factors that shape species’ distributions is a key topic in biogeography. As climates change, species can either cope with these changes through evolution, plasticity or by shifting their ranges to track the optimal climatic conditions. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is a widespread technique in biogeography that estimates the niche of the organism by using occurrences and environmental data to estimate species’ potential distributions. ENMs are often criticized for failing to take species’ dispersal abilities into consideration. Here, we attempt to fill this gap by combining ENMs with dispersal and corridor modeling to study the range dynamics of North American spadefoot toads (Scaphiopodidae) over the Holocene. We first estimated the current and past distributions of spadefoot toads and then estimated their past distributions from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present day. Then, we estimated how each taxon recolonized North American by using dispersal and corridor modeling. By combining these two modeling approaches we were able to 1) estimate the LGM refugia used by the North American spadefoot toads, 2) further refine these projections by estimating which of the putative LGM refugia contributed to the recolonization of North America via dispersal, and 3) estimate the relative influence of each LGM refugium to the current species’ distributions. The models were tested using previously published phylogeographic data, revealing a high degree of congruence between our models and the genetic data. These results suggest that combining ENMs and dispersal modeling over time is a promising approach to investigate both historical and future species’ range dynamics.     

Ice-age survival of Atlantic cod: agreement between palaeoecology models and genetics

Scant scientific attention has been given to the abundance and distribution of marine biota in the face of the lower sea level, and steeper latitudinal gradient in climate, during the ice-age conditions that have dominated the past million years. Here we examine the glacial persistence of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) populations using two ecological-niche-models (ENM) and the first broad synthesis of multi-locus gene sequence data for this species. One ENM uses a maximum entropy approach (Maxent ); the other is a new ENM for Atlantic cod, using ecophysiological parameters based on observed reproductive events rather than adult distribution. Both the ENMs were tested for present-day conditions, then used to hindcast ranges at the last glacial maximum (LGM) ca 21kyr ago, employing climate model data. Although the LGM range of Atlantic cod was much smaller, and fragmented, both the ENMs agreed that populations should have been able to persist in suitable habitat on both sides of the Atlantic. The genetic results showed a degree of trans-Atlantic divergence consistent with genealogically continuous populations on both sides of the North Atlantic since long before the LGM, confirming the ENM results. In contrast, both the ENMs and the genetic data suggest that the Greenland G. morhua population post-dates the LGM.     

Broad- to fine-scale population genetic patterning in the smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu across the Laurentian Great Lakes and beyond: an interplay of behaviour and geography

Analysis of population genetic relationships reveals the signatures of current processes such as spawning behaviour and migration, as well as those of historical events including vicariance and climate change. This study examines these signatures through testing broad‐ to fine‐scale genetic patterns among smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu spawning populations across their native Great Lakes range and outgroup areas, with fine‐scale concentration in Lake Erie. Our primary hypotheses include whether genetic patterns result from behavioural and/or geographical isolation, specifically: (i) Are spawning groups in interconnected waterways genetically separable? (ii) What is the degree of isolation across and among lakes, basins, and tributaries? (iii) Do genetic divergences correspond to geographical distances? and (iv) Are historical colonization patterns from glacial refugia retained? Variation at eight nuclear microsatellite DNA loci are analysed for 666 smallmouth bass from 28 locations, including 425 individuals in Lake Erie; as well as Lakes Superior, Huron, and Ontario, and outgroups from the Mississippi, Ohio, St. Lawrence, and Hudson River drainages. Results reveal marked genetic differences among lake and river populations, as well as surprisingly high divergences among closely spaced riverine sites. Results do not fit an isolation‐by‐geographical‐distance prediction for fine‐scale genetic patterns, but show weak correspondence across large geographical scales. Genetic relationships thus are consistent with hypotheses regarding divergent origins through vicariance in glacial refugia, followed by colonization pathways establishing modern‐day Great Lakes populations, and maintenance through behavioural site fidelity. Conservation management practices thus should preserve genetic identity and unique characters among smallmouth bass populations.     

Ecological niche models display nonlinear relationships with abundance and demographic performance across the latitudinal distribution of Astragalus utahensis (Fabaceae)

The potential for ecological niche models (ENMs) to accurately predict species' abundance and demographic performance throughout their geographic distributions remains a topic of substantial debate in ecology and biogeography. Few studies simultaneously examine the relationship between ENM predictions of environmental suitability and both a species' abundance and its demographic performance, particularly across its entire geographic distribution. Yet, studies of this type are essential for understanding the extent to which ENMs are a viable tool for identifying areas that may promote high abundance or performance of a species or how species might respond to future climate conditions. In this study, we used an ensemble ecological niche model to predict climatic suitability for the perennial forb Astragalus utahensis across its geographic distribution. We then examined relationships between projected climatic suitability and field‐based measures of abundance, demographic performance, and forecasted stochastic population growth (λ_s). Predicted climatic suitability showed a J‐shaped relationship with A. utahensis abundance, where low‐abundance populations were associated with low‐to‐intermediate suitability scores and abundance increased sharply in areas of high predicted climatic suitability. A similar relationship existed between climatic suitability and λ_s from the center to the northern edge of the latitudinal distribution. Patterns such as these, where density or demographic performance only increases appreciably beyond some threshold of climatic suitability, support the contention that ENM‐predicted climatic suitability does not necessarily represent a reliable predictor of abundance or performance across large geographic regions.     

Evaluating,partitioning, and mapping the spatial autocorrelation component in ecological niche modeling: a new approach based on environmentally equidistant records

Most species data display spatial autocorrelation that can affect ecological niche models (ENMs) accuracy‐statistics, affecting its ability to infer geographic distributions. Here we evaluate whether the spatial autocorrelation underlying species data affects accuracy‐statistics and map the uncertainties due to spatial autocorrelation effects on species range predictions under past and future climate models. As an example, ENMs were fitted to Qualea grandiflora (Vochysiaceae), a widely distributed plant from Brazilian Cerrado. We corrected for spatial autocorrelation in ENMs by selecting sampling sites equidistant in geographical (GEO) and environmental (ENV) spaces. Distributions were modelled using 13 ENMs evaluated by two accuracy‐statistics (TSS and AUC), which were compared with uncorrected ENMs. Null models and the similarity statistics I were used to evaluate the effects of spatial autocorrelation. Moreover, we applied a hierarchical ANOVA to partition and map the uncertainties from the time (across last glacial maximum, pre‐insustrial, and 2080 time periods) and methodological components (ENMs and autocorrelation corrections). The GEO and ENV models had the highest accuracy‐statistics values, although only the ENV model had values higher than expected by chance alone for most of the 13 ENMs. Uncertainties from time component were higher in the core region of the Brazilian Cerrado where Q. grandiflora occurs, whereas methodological components presented higher uncertainties in the extreme northern and southern regions of South America (i.e. outside of Brazilian Cerrado). Our findings show that accounting for autocorrelation in environmental space is more efficient than doing so in geographical space. Methodological uncertainties were concentrated in outside the core region of Q. grandiflora's habitat. Conversely, uncertainty due to time component in the Brazilian Cerrado reveals that ENMs were able to capture climate change effects on Q. grandiflora distributions.     

Profound climatic effects on two East Asian black-throated tits (Ave: Aegithalidae), revealed by ecological niche models and phylogeographic analysis

Although a number of studies have assessed the effects of geological and climatic changes on species distributions in East Asian, we still have limited knowledge of how these changes have impacted avian species in south-western and southern China. Here, we aim to study paleo-climatic effects on an East Asian bird, two subspecies of black-throated tit (A. c. talifuensis-concinnus) with the combined analysis of phylogeography and Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). We sequenced three mitochondrial DNA markers from 32 populations (203 individuals) and used phylogenetic inferences to reconstruct the intra-specific relationships among haplotypes. Population genetic analyses were undertaken to gain insight into the demographic history of these populations. We used ENMs to predict the distribution of target species during three periods; last inter-glacial (LIG), last glacial maximum (LGM) and present. We found three highly supported, monophyletic MtDNA lineages and different historical demography among lineages in A. c. talifuensis-concinnus. These lineages formed a narrowly circumscribed intra-specific contact zone. The estimated times of lineage divergences were about 2.4 Ma and 0.32 Ma respectively. ENMs predictions were similar between present and LGM but substantially reduced during LIG. ENMs reconstructions and molecular dating suggest that Pleistocene climate changes had triggered and shaped the genetic structure of black-throated tit. Interestingly, in contrast to profound impacts of other glacial cycles, ENMs and phylogeographic analysis suggest that LGM had limited effect on these two subspecies. ENMs also suggest that Pleistocene climatic oscillations enabled the formation of the contact zone and thus support the refuge theory.     

Geological habitat template overrides late Quaternary climate change as a determinant of range dynamics and phylogeography in some habitat‐specialist water beetles

Aim We investigated the roles of lithology and climate in constraining the ranges of four co‐distributed species of Iberian saline‐habitat specialist water beetles (Ochthebius glaber, Ochthebius notabilis, Enochrus falcarius and Nebrioporus baeticus) across the late Quaternary and in shaping their geographical genetic structure. The aim was to improve our understanding of the effects of past climate changes on the biota of arid Mediterranean environments and of the relative importance of history and landscape on phylogeographical patterns. Location Iberian Peninsula, Mediterranean. Methods We combined species distribution modelling (SDM) and comparative phylogeography. We used a multi‐model inference and model‐averaging approach both for assessment of range determinants (climate and lithology) and for provision of spatially explicit estimates of the species current and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) potential ranges. Potential LGM distributions were then contrasted with the phylogeographical and population expansion patterns as assessed using mitochondrial DNA sequence data. We also evaluated the relative importance of geographical distance, habitat resistance and historical isolation for genetic structure in a causal modelling framework. Results Lithology poses a strong constraint on the distribution of Iberian saline‐habitat specialist water beetles, with a variable, but generally moderate, additional influence by climate. The degree to which potential LGM distributions were reduced and fragmented decreased with increasing importance of lithology. These SDM‐based suitability predictions were mostly congruent with phylogeographical and population genetic patterns across the study species, with stronger geographical structure in the genetic diversity of the more temperature‐sensitive species (O. glaber and E. falcarius). Furthermore, while historical isolation was the only factor explaining genetic structure in the more temperature‐sensitive species, lithology‐controlled landscape configuration also played an important role for those species with more lithology‐determined ranges (O. notabilis and N. baeticus). Main conclusions Our data show that lithology is an important constraint on the distribution and range dynamics of endemic Iberian saline‐habitat water beetles, in interaction with climate and long‐term climate change, and overrides the latter in importance for some species. Hence, geological landscape structure and long‐term history may codetermine the overall range and the distribution of genetic lineages in endemic species with specialized edaphic requirements.