Risk Analysis of Wind Energy Investments in Turkey

ABSTRACT

Wind energy is a reliable source for fulfilling energy demand. However, the wind power usage remains limited due to the investmental risks. Governments’ support on renewable energy compensates these risks partially. Traditional investment evaluation techniques that do not consider the compensations and risks associated with the wind energy investments are one of the main reasons for the limited usage of wind power. In this study a real option and Monte Carlo simulation–based methodology, which considers both risks and compensations associated with these investments, is proposed to evaluate wind energy investments. The model is applied to a wind turbine investment in Turkey in order to show the applicability of the proposed model. The results indicate that the option value created through wind energy investments due to the governmental compensations is very high; therefore the traditional investment techniques are not appropriate for evaluating wind energy investments.     

On the Use of Published Demographic Data for Population-Level Risk Assessment in Birds

As the practice of using population models for wildlife risk assessment has become more common, so has the practice of using surrogate data, typically taken from the published scientific literature, as inputs for demographic models. This practice clearly exposes the user to inferential errors. However, it is likely to continue because demographic data are expensive to gather. We review potential errors associated with the use of previously published demographic data and how those errors propagate into the endpoints of demographic projection models. We suggest methods for inferring bias in model endpoints when multiple and opposing biases are present in the demographic input data. We provide an example using Eastern Meadowlarks (Sturnella magna), a common songbird in Midwestern grasslands and agro-ecosystems. We conclude with a brief review of methods that could improve inference made using published demographic data, including methods from life-history theory, meta-analysis, and Bayesian statistics.     

A New Species of Avian Plasmodium

SYNOPSIS. A new species of avian malaria parasite is described, for which the name Plasmodium formosanum is proposed. It was observed in the blood of Arboriphila crudigularis , the Formosan hill partridge; other bird species in which it may occur remain unknown, as do the mosquito vectors. It produces very broad, elongate gametocytes, the macrogametocyte usually exhibiting a very large vacuole. The usual number of merozoites is eight. The host cell nucleus typically is not displaced, except laterally by the sexual forms. Only the stages occurring in the blood have yet been seen.     

Nonconserved Tryptophan 38 of the Cell Surface Receptor for Subgroup J Avian Leukosis Virus Discriminates Sensitive from Resistant Avian Species

Subgroup J avian leukosis virus (ALV-J) is unique among the avian sarcoma and leukosis viruses in using the multimembrane-spanning cell surface protein Na⁺/H⁺ exchanger type 1 (NHE1) as a receptor. The precise localization of amino acids critical for NHE1 receptor activity is key in understanding the virus-receptor interaction and potential interference with virus entry. Because no resistant chicken lines have been described until now, we compared the NHE1 amino acid sequences from permissive and resistant galliform species. In all resistant species, the deletion or substitution of W38 within the first extracellular loop was observed either alone or in the presence of other incidental amino acid changes. Using the ectopic expression of wild-type or mutated chicken NHE1 in resistant cells and infection with a reporter recombinant retrovirus of subgroup J specificity, we studied the effect of individual mutations on the NHE1 receptor capacity. We suggest that the absence of W38 abrogates binding of the subgroup J envelope glycoprotein to ALV-J-resistant cells. Altogether, we describe the functional importance of W38 for virus entry and conclude that natural polymorphisms in NHE1 can be a source of host resistance to ALV-J.     

Serotyping of Avian Mycoplasma Species in India

Two-hundred and two strains of avian mycoplasma species belonging to 10 biotypes were typed serologically by employing disk growth inhibition (DGI) and indirect hemagglutination (IHA) tests. These could be placed into seven serotypes, namely A (80), B (50), C (3), E (34), L (13), P (4), and 1 and R (18). The figures in parentheses show the number of strains within each type. A close relationship was observed between DGI and IHA tests. The IHA test, however, was more sensitive and specific. It was also noticed that biochemically identical biotypes, namely E and G, and B and M were also found identical in serotyping, thus confirming the biochemical identity. In view of these facts, the strains of biotypes M and G were grouped under serotypes B and E, respectively. The antigenic relationships between the serotypes are also discussed.     

Sequential Comparison of Peptides Containing Half-cystine Residues from Ovalbumins of Six Avian Species

Hen ovalbumin contains one cystine disulfide (Cys⁷³-Cys¹²⁰) and four cysteine sulfhydryl groups (Cys¹¹,Cys³⁰,Cys³⁶⁷, and Cys³⁸²) in a single polypeptide chain of 385 amino acid residues. To investigate whether or not such a structure is shared by related avian species, the contents of disulfide-involved half-cystine residues and their positions in the primary structure of ovalbumins from five species were compared with those of hen ovalbumin. Ovalbumins were alkylated with a fluorescent dye, IAEDANS, under disulfide-reduced and disulfide-intact conditions and digested with a number of proteolytic enzymes. The sequences were deduced from peptides containing half-cystine residues labeled with the fluorescent dye. The results showed that the number of free cysteine sulfhydryl groups of ovalbumins was different among the species, three for guinea fowl and turkey (Cys¹¹, Cys³⁶⁷, and Cys³⁸²); and two for Pekin duck, mallard duck, and Emden goose (Cys¹¹ and Cys³³¹). On the other hand, a single intrachain disulfide bond could be identified from ovalbumins of five species using a combination of peptide mapping and N-terminal amino acid sequencing analysis under reduced and non-reduced conditions, in which the intrachain disulfide bond was like that of hen ovalbumin (Cys⁷³-Cys¹²⁰). The results also indicated that the variations in amino acid sequences on these peptides containing half-cystine residues bear a close relationship with the phylogeny of the six species.     

Prioritizing GWAS Results: A Review of Statistical Methods and Recommendations for Their Application

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have rapidly become a standard method for disease gene discovery. A substantial number of recent GWAS indicate that for most disorders, only a few common variants are implicated and the associated SNPs explain only a small fraction of the genetic risk. This review is written from the viewpoint that findings from the GWAS provide preliminary genetic information that is available for additional analysis by statistical procedures that accumulate evidence, and that these secondary analyses are very likely to provide valuable information that will help prioritize the strongest constellations of results. We review and discuss three analytic methods to combine preliminary GWAS statistics to identify genes, alleles, and pathways for deeper investigations. Meta-analysis seeks to pool information from multiple GWAS to increase the chances of finding true positives among the false positives and provides a way to combine associations across GWAS, even when the original data are unavailable. Testing for epistasis within a single GWAS study can identify the stronger results that are revealed when genes interact. Pathway analysis of GWAS results is used to prioritize genes and pathways within a biological context. Following a GWAS, association results can be assigned to pathways and tested in aggregate with computational tools and pathway databases. Reviews of published methods with recommendations for their application are provided within the framework for each approach.     

Wind Energy Development and Wildlife Conservation: Challenges and Opportunities

ABSTRACT Wind energy development represents significant challenges and opportunities in contemporary wildlife management. Such challenges include the large size and extensive placement of turbines that may represent potential hazards to birds and bats. However, the associated infrastructure required to support an array of turbines—such as roads and transmission lines—represents an even larger potential threat to wildlife than the turbines themselves because such infrastructure can result in extensive habitat fragmentation and can provide avenues for invasion by exotic species. There are numerous conceptual research opportunities that pertain to issues such as identifying the best and worst placement of sites for turbines that will minimize impacts on birds and bats. Unfortunately, to date very little research of this type has appeared in the peer-reviewed scientific literature; much of it exists in the form of unpublished reports and other forms of gray literature. In this paper, we summarize what is known about the potential impacts of wind farms on wildlife and identify a 3-part hierarchical approach to use the scientific method to assess these impacts. The Lower Gulf Coast (LGC) of Texas, USA, is a region currently identified as having a potentially negative impact on migratory birds and bats, with respect to wind farm development. This area is also a region of vast importance to wildlife from the standpoint of native diversity, nature tourism, and opportunities for recreational hunting. We thus use some of the emergent issues related to wind farm development in the LGC—such as siting turbines on cropland sites as opposed to on native rangelands—to illustrate the kinds of challenges and opportunities that wildlife managers must face as we balance our demand for sustainable energy with the need to conserve and sustain bird migration routes and corridors, native vertebrates, and the habitats that support them.     

中国光柄菇属已知种类及其分布

对中国光柄菇属(Pluteus)真菌进行了整理、修订,并对有关分类学问题进行了扼要讨论。中国光柄菇属真菌有28个名称记录,分布于23个省(自治区)。其中只有10个分类单元引证了标本,有3个记录的报道未提供形态描述,另有1种存在拼写错误。     

禽Ⅰ型副粘病毒各种禽源分离株毒力及其相关基因的研究

用测定新城疫病毒(NDV)毒力的经典方法,即鸡胚平均死亡时间(MDT)和脑内接种致病指数(ICPI),对源于鸡、鸽、鹅、珍珠鸡、孔雀、鹌鹑和画眉鸟等7种禽(鸟)源的共14个禽Ⅰ型副粘病毒(APMV-1)广西分离株,分别测定了毒力。同时对分离株F基因的N一端前段和HN基因的e末端片段进行扩增、测序和分析,并绘制系谱树。结果发现,分离株的MDT在36h～75h之间,除1株鸽源毒株gxp22的ICPI值为0外,其余分离株在1．09～1．95之间;除孔雀源的分离株gxpc52在F基因裂解位点附近的氨基酸序列为^112R-RQ-R-R-F^117之外,其它13株均为^112R-R-Q-K-R-F^117,都符合强毒株的特征。所有分离株与国内参考强毒株F48E8和国外参考强毒株HER／33在HN基因e末端终止密码子的位置相同,也符合强毒株的特征。根据F基因核苷酸序列绘制的系谱树发现,近几年来在广西流行的APMV-1毒株的基因型为Ⅶd亚型;根据HN基因核苷酸序列绘制的系谱树表明,广西各种禽源APMV-1分离株可分为2个群。研究的结果表明,根据F基因裂解位点附近的氨基酸序列和HN蛋白翻译的终止密码子的位置判定APMV-1毒力的结果,都与毒株在临床上的致病情况相符。因此,根据F基因和HN基因序列和结构的特征,均可以判定APMV-1临床分离株的体内致病性。     

中国红菇属种类及其分布

通过系统的文献收集,汇总了中国红菇属(Russula Pers.)真菌的179个名称记录,并对其生境、用途及分布或分类进行了简述。文献调查表明,红菇属种类广泛分布于中国30个省区。在已报道的红菇属名称记录中,有效名称有159个,包括148种、9变种和2变型,其中新名称1个、新拟汉名8个,无效或不合格名称10个,错拼名称8个,存疑种3个,中国特有种13种,一些种类具有显著的经济价值。     

中国虫草属已知种类及其分布

对中国虫草属(Cordyceps(Fr．)Link)真菌进行了整理、修订,对有关分类学问题进行了简要讨论。文献记载我国该属有139个名称,分布于29个省区。其中,有效名称130个(包括125种、3变种和2变型),无效或不合格名称3种,错拼名称2种,存疑种4种,有无性型报道的种类38种,中国特有种46个。     

On Aggregating Species for Risk Assessment

Different combinations of species characteristics like dietary strategies and foraging tactics define unique pathways for material cycling and energy flow in ecosystems. I used multivariate cluster analysis on a species attribute matrix to identify groups of species with similar vulnerabilities of exposure to contaminants. The clusters of species may also have similar functions in ecosystems, because they use similar resources in similar ways. Cluster analyses produced hierarchical dendrograms of species relationships that were difficult to characterize with simple labels like herbivore or insectivore. Regardless of whether multivariate analyses are used for aggregating species into exposure guilds, the species attribute matrix is a concise statement of assumptions about how species function in ecosystems. By using species characteristics to aggregate and define assessments, it is hoped that assessment endpoints will be ecologically relevant.     

Epistemological Implications of Fieldwork and Their Consequences

Fieldwork is anthropology's primary data-gathering device, providing a boundary marker from related disciplines. Since data obtained through fieldwork form the bases of anthropological theory, it is crucial that their truth value be analyzed. The paper discusses reasons for both the relative lack of epistemological concern in anthropology until recent times and its current vogue. The empirical foundations of fieldwork are examined and a grid is presented for judging the philosophical position of fieldworkers. Application of the methods suggested is illustrated by a case study of missionary/anthropologist field interaction. Finally, an argument is outlined against both rationalism and phenomenology as being antiscientific. These last two positions are seen as the logical result of anthropology's neglect of epistemology. [epistemology, fieldwork, methodology, recurrent relationships, empiricism]     

Genome-Wide Estimation of Linkage Disequilibrium from Population-Level High-Throughput Sequencing Data

Rapidly improving sequencing technologies provide unprecedented opportunities for analyzing genome-wide patterns of polymorphisms. In particular, they have great potential for linkage-disequilibrium analyses on both global and local genetic scales, which will substantially improve our ability to derive evolutionary inferences. However, there are some difficulties with analyzing high-throughput sequencing data, including high error rates associated with base reads and complications from the random sampling of sequenced chromosomes in diploid organisms. To overcome these difficulties, we developed a maximum-likelihood estimator of linkage disequilibrium for use with error-prone sampling data. Computer simulations indicate that the estimator is nearly unbiased with a sampling variance at high coverage asymptotically approaching the value expected when all relevant information is accurately estimated. The estimator does not require phasing of haplotypes and enables the estimation of linkage disequilibrium even when all individual reads cover just single polymorphic sites.     

Effect of Species Interaction on Beak Integration in an Avian Hybrid Species Complex

Theory predicts that variability in size and the shape of a morphological trait should often be stable both at the intra- and interspecific level. We studied variation in beak integration among several populations of two species of the genus Passer, a hybrid species, the Italian sparrow (Passer italiae) and one of its parents, the Spanish sparrow (Passer hispaniolensis). We show that the general shape of the beak has been conserved in these two species and that hybrid speciation has had no major effects on beak integration. However, in young, sympatric populations, phenotypic integration between beak height and length decreased significantly, to the extent that these two dimensions apparently became independent. This displacement in phenotypic integration seems to be accompanied with changes in the distribution of phenotypic variation at the univariate level. This suggests that while beak shape may have been constrained over evolutionary time-scales and major hybridization events (i.e. the formation of the hybrid Italian sparrow), under specific selection regimes linked to secondary contact, it can evolve rapidly.     

Assessing the Consequences from Marine Accidents: Introduction to a Risk Acceptance Criterion for Greece

The aim of this article is to shed some light on an appropriate criterion for assessing risk/consequences in the maritime transport industry, with respect to the view of society. A major problem is how to derive credible and exploitable data from/for the society and try to understand how it reacts to accidents (i.e., misfortunes) of different scale. Therefore the set problem is the assessment of the maximum risk that the society will tolerate for a specific activity. In the shipping industry, the problem is complicated due to the fact that a single maritime incident can produce consequences of different types, for example, both human losses and oil spillage can result from the same accident. In effect, this article focuses on the integration of different consequences of an accident into one metric that will allow the direct and exploitable comparison of accidents of different scales and characteristics and therefore present a clearer picture of the risks that the society takes and/or is willing to accept. Hence, a new framework for marine risk assessment is introduced, which is able to project the risk that a group of people (i.e., the society) can accept for accidents of different size or type.