The observed relationship between the occurrence of acute radiation effects and leukemia mortality among A-bomb survivors

In an analysis of a follow-up study of a fixed population of 73,330 atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the slope of an estimated dose response between ionizing radiation and leukemia mortality was found to be steeper (P less than 0.002), by a factor of 2.4, among those who reported epilation within 60 days of the bombings, compared to those who did not experience this sign of acute radiation exposure. The strength of this empirical finding as evidence of biological association in individual radiosensitivity for these two end points is studied here. The major factor complicating the interpretation of this finding as evidence of such an association is the degree of imprecision of the radiation dosimetry system used in assignment of radiation doses to the A-bomb survivors. Using models recently suggested for dealing with dosimetry errors in epidemiological analysis of the A-bomb survivor data, the sensitivity of the apparent association between leukemia mortality and severe epilation to the assumed level of dosimetry error is investigated.     

Immunological responses of aging Japanese A-bomb survivors

Immune response parameters were studied on 1341 A-bomb survivors residing in Hiroshima, Japan. Mononuclear cells were isolated from venous blood and tested for interleukin-2 production; lymphocytes were purified and tested for natural killer (NK) cell activity and interferon (IFN) production; and serum was tested for IFN and circulating immune complex (CIC) levels. Statistical analyses were performed for each type of assay using a linear models procedure including sex, age at the time of the bomb, radiation exposure, all the interaction variables, and the categorical variable day-of-assay in the model. The findings showed that (1) none of the immunologic variables were significantly affected by radiation exposure; (2) NK activity and CIC levels were positively associated with age; and (3) NK activity was on average higher for males than females. The data exemplify the difficulty in reaching firm conclusions concerning associations with radiation exposure when the dependent variable exhibits a large degree of interindividual and day-of-assay variability.     

The shape of the cancer mortality dose-response curve for the A-bomb survivors

The shape of the dose-response curve for cancer mortality in the A-bomb survivor data is analyzed in the context of linear-quadratic models. Results are given for all cancers except leukemia as a group, for leukemia, and for combined inferences assuming common curvature. Since there is substantial information aside from these data suggesting a dose-response curve with upward curvature, the emphasis here is not on estimating the best-fitting dose-response curve, but rather on assessing the maximum curvature under linear-quadratic models which is consistent with the data. The apparent shape of the dose-response curve is substantially affected by imprecision in the dose estimates, and methods are applied to correct for this. The extent of curvature can be expressed as the factor by which linear risk estimates from these data should be divided to arrive at appropriate estimates of risk at low doses. Influential committees have in the past recommended ranges of 1.5-4 and of 2-10 for such a factor. Results here suggest that values greater than about 2.0-2.5 are at least moderately inconsistent with these data, within the context of linear-quadratic models. It is emphasized, however, that there is little direct information in these data regarding risks following low doses; the inferences here depend strongly on the assumption of a linear-quadratic model.     

Natural cell-mediated cytotoxicity among A-bomb survivors residing in the United States

Natural cell-mediated cytotoxicity (NCMC) by lymphocytes from Japanese atomic bomb survivors now living in the United States was measured. Seventy-one individuals were exposed to an estimated '0.00' Gy ('0 rads') (S0 group) and 58 to greater than '0.00 Gy' (S+ group) at the time of the bomb. Of this 58, 51 (88 per cent) received less than 0.50 Gy and 30 (52 per cent) received less than 0.10 Gy. NCMC was measured against 51Cr-labelled K562 target cells. Activity by lymphocytes from S+ group donors was significantly greater than that for the S0 group (p = 0.028 by the stratified Wilcoxon rank-sum test). This difference between the S+ and S0 populations was detected 35 years after exposure to the bomb. It is therefore feasible and important to examine appropriate biologic parameters to elucidate the effects of low doses of radiation in humans.     

Studies of the mortality of A-bomb survivors. 8. Cancer mortality, 1950-1982

This study extends an earlier one by 4 years (1979-1982) and includes mortality data on 11,393 additional Nagasaki survivors. Significant dose responses are observed for leukemia, multiple myeloma, and cancers of the lung, female breast, stomach, colon, esophagus, and urinary tract. Due to diagnostic difficulties, results for liver and ovarian cancers, while suggestive of significant dose responses, do not provide convincing evidence for radiogenic effects. No significant dose responses are seen for cancers of the gallbladder, prostate, rectum, pancreas, or uterus, or for lymphoma. For solid tumors, largely due to sex-specific differences in the background rates, the relative risk of radiation-induced mortality is greater for women than for men. For nonleukemic cancers the relative risk seen in those who were young when exposed has decreased with time, while the smaller risks for those who were older at exposure have tended to increase. While the absolute excess risks of radiation-induced mortality due to nonleukemic cancer have increased with time for all age-at-exposure groups, both excess and relative risks of leukemia have generally decreased with time. For leukemia, the rate of decrease in risk and the initial level of risk are inversely related to age at exposure.     

Temporal analysis of a dose-response relationship: leukemia mortality in atomic bomb survivors

A data analysis that incorporates time dependencies is demonstrated for the dose response of leukemia mortality in the atomic bomb survivors. The time dependencies are initially left unspecified and the data on leukemia mortality--up to the end of 1978--are used to infer them. Several findings based on T65 revised doses (T65DR) are obtained. First, it is shown that the fits to the data of time-dependent L (linear in gamma dose)-Q (quadratic in gamma dose)-L (linear in neutron dose), L-L, and Q-L dose-response models are significantly improved (P less than 0.001) by using the corresponding time-dependent dose-response models. Second, it is shown that the increased risk of leukemia mortality due to gamma irradiation decreases in time while the increased risk due to neutron exposure decreases more slowly, if at all, in time. Consequently, relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of neutrons is shown to increase in time (P = 0.002) and the current definition of RBE as a time-independent quantity is therefore challenged. It is demonstrated with time-dependent models that the L-L model has a poor fit (P = 0.01) to the data for the first 7 years of study, but has an adequate fit for the remaining 21 years. In contrast the Q-L model has an adequate fit for the entire follow-up period (P greater than 0.30).     

The effect of diagnostic misclassification on non-cancer and cancer mortality dose response in A-bomb survivors.

We used the EM algorithm in the context of a joint Poisson regression analysis of cancer and non-cancer mortality in the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) Life Span Study (LSS) to assess whether the observed increased risk of non-cancer death due to radiation exposure (Shimizu et al., RERF Technical Report 02-91, 1991) can be attributed solely to misclassification of cancer as non-cancer on death certificates. We show that greater levels of dose-independent misclassification than are indicated by a series of autopsies conducted on a subset of LSS members would be required to explain the non-cancer dose response, but that a relatively small amount of dose-dependence in the misclassification of cancer would explain the result. The adjustment for misclassification also results in higher risk estimates for cancer mortality. We review applications of similar statistical methods in other contexts and discuss extensions of the methods to more than two causes of death.     

Selection bias in cancer risk estimation from A-bomb survivors

We consider the possible bias in cancer risk estimation from A-bomb survivors due to selection of the cohort by survival. The paper considers both relevant information from the data and basic theoretical issues involved. The most direct information from the data comes from making various restrictions on the dose-distance range, partly to reduce differential selection and partly just to reduce the magnitude of the selection. These analyses suggest that there are no serious biases, but they are not conclusive. Theoretical considerations include laying out more explicitly than usual just how biases could result from the selection. This involves heterogeneities in the ability to survive acute effects, in baseline and radiogenic cancer rates, and most importantly the correlation between survival-related and cancer-related heterogeneities. Following on this, idealized modeling is used to quantify the extent of possible bias in terms of the assumed values of the magnitude of these heterogeneities and their correlation. It is indicated that these values would need to be very large to introduce substantial bias. Based on all these considerations, it seems unlikely that the bias in cancer risk estimation could be large in relation to other uncertainties in generalizing from what is seen among A-bomb survivors; in particular, indications are that the bias in relative risks is unlikely to be as large as 0.05 to 0.07. For solid cancer this would correspond to bias in the excess relative risk at 1 Sv of at most about 15-20%.     

Radiation-related ophthalmological changes and aging among Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bomb survivors: a reanalysis.

The relationship of ionizing radiation to the age-related ophthalmological findings of the 1978-1980 ophthalmological examination of A-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki has been reanalyzed using DS86 eye organ dose estimates. The main purpose of this reevaluation was to determine whether age and radiation exposure, as measured using the recently revised dosimetry information (DS86), have an additive, synergistic, or antagonistic effect. The data in this study are limited to axial opacities and posterior subcapsular changes, for which a definite radiation-induced effect has been observed in Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bomb survivors. The best model fitting for axial opacities gives a significant positive effect for both linear dose and linear age-related regression coefficients and a significant negative effect for an interaction between radiation dose and age. Such a negative interaction implies an antagonistic effect in that the relative risks in relation to radiation exposure doses become smaller with an increase in age. On the other hand, the best-fitting relationship for posterior subcapsular changes suggested a linear-quadratic dose and linear age-related effect. The estimate of the quadratic dose coefficient shows a highly negative correlation with age, but the negative quadratic dose term is extremely small and is of little biological significance.     

Improved estimates of cancer site-specific risks for A-bomb survivors

Pawel, D. J., Preston, D. L., Pierce, D. A. and Cologne, J. B. Improved Estimates of Cancer Site-Specific Risks for A-Bomb Survivors. Radiat. Res. 169, 87-98 (2008). Simple methods are investigated for improving summary site-specific radiogenic risk estimates. Estimates in this report are derived from cancer incidence data from the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of A-bomb survivors that are followed up by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF). Estimates from the LSS of excess relative risk (ERR) for solid cancer sites have typically been derived separately for each site. Even though the data for this are extensive, the statistical imprecision in site-specific (organ-specific) risk estimates is substantial, and it is clear that a large portion of the site-specific variation in estimates is due to this imprecision. Empirical Bayes (EB) estimates offer a reasonable approach for moderating this variation. The simple version of EB estimates that we applied to the LSS data are weighted averages of a pooled overall estimate of ERR and separately derived site-specific estimates, with weights determined by the data. Results indicate that the EB estimates are most useful for sites such as esophageal or bladder cancer, for which the separately derived ERR estimates are less precise than for other sites.     

Possible selection effects for radiation risk estimates in Japanese A-bomb survivors: reanalysis of acute radiation symptoms data

An earlier analysis examined the possibility of bias in the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort by studying Japanese A-bomb survivors with bomb-related acute injuries and those without such injuries (Stewart and Kneale in Int J Epidemiol 29:708–714, 2000). The authors reported significantly higher radiation risks, both for cancers and non-cancers, among those survivors with acute injuries compared with those without. The risks were reported to be particularly large among survivors aged <10 or ≥55 years of age at the time of bombings. The aim of this paper is to examine these findings more closely using the LSS acute effects data. All the analyses were carried out using Poisson regression. Relative risk models were fitted with adjustment for sex and other factors. Significant differences in relative risk between survivors with epilation and burns and those without epilation and burns are found for leukaemia. There is also some evidence for heterogeneity in the leukaemia risk between survivors with two or more acute injuries and those with no injuries, but the evidence is disappeared when survivors with one or more injuries are compared with those without injuries. For solid cancers, cardiovascular disease and all deaths combined, the risks do not differ to a statistically significant extent between survivors with and without injuries. There is no statistically significant heterogeneity in risk across age-at-exposure categories for survivors with injuries. For all deaths combined, relative risk estimates and their uncertainties are significantly higher for survivors exposed at ages <10 years when compared with other exposure ages, but risks are not significantly raised for survivors exposed at ≥55 years of age. With the exception of leukaemia, the findings from the present work are inconsistent with those of Stewart and Kneale.     

Dietary factors and cancer mortality among atomic-bomb survivors

Dietary factors such as fruit and vegetables are thought to reduce the risk of cancer incidence and mortality. We investigated the effect of a diet rich in fruit and vegetables against the long-term effects of radiation exposure on the risk of cancer. A cohort of 36,228 atomic-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, for whom radiation dose estimates were currently available, had their diet assessed in 1980. They were followed for a period of 20 years for cancer mortality. The joint-effect of fruit and vegetables intake and radiation exposure on risk of cancer death was examined, in additive (sum of effects of diet alone and radiation alone) and multiplicative (product of effects of diet alone and radiation alone) models. In the additive model, a daily intake of fruit and vegetables significantly reduced the risk of cancer deaths by 13%, compared to an intake of once or less per week. Radiation exposure of 1 Sievert (Sv) increased significantly the risk of cancer death by 48-49%. The additive joint-effects showed a lower risk of cancer among those exposed to 1 Sv who had a diet rich in vegetables (49%-13%=36%) or fruit (48%-13%=35%). The multiplicative model gave similar results. The cancer risk reduction by vegetables in exposed persons went from 52% (effect of radiation alone) to 32% (product of effect of vegetables and radiation), and cancer risk reduction by fruit was 52% (radiation alone) to 34% (product of effect of fruit and radiation). There was no significant evidence to reject either the additive or the multiplicative model. A daily intake of fruit and vegetables was beneficial to the persons exposed to radiation in reducing their risks of cancer death.     

Mortality of registered A-bomb survivors in Nagasaki, Japan, 1970-1984

A follow-up study of A-bomb survivors registered in Nagasaki was conducted from 1970 to 1984 by the Scientific Data Center of A-Bomb Disaster at Nagasaki University, which has collected medical and administrative data on A-bomb survivors with the help of Nagasaki City Hall and other organizations. The purpose of this study was to investigate the following two points. (1) Has the health screening program for A-bomb survivors reduced the mortality rate? (2) If so, how much has it reduced it, and what would the life-shortening effect of radiation be without the health screening program? The results revealed that the effect of radiation on mortality would be underestimated if the health screening factor were ignored. The estimated effect of radiation dose was compared with that estimated by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF).     

Studies of the mortality of A-bomb survivors. 9. Mortality, 1950-1985: Part 3. Noncancer mortality based on the revised doses (DS86).

Deaths in the RERF Life Span Study (LSS) sample have been determined for the years 1950-1985 and an analysis of cancer mortality with the revised DS86 doses has been described separately. In this report, we examine the relationship to dose of deaths from all diseases other than cancer. Although the evidence is still limited, there seems to be an excess risk from noncancer death at high doses (2 or 3 Gy and over). Statistically, a pure quadratic or a linear-threshold model [the estimated threshold dose is 1.4 Gy (0.6-2.8 Gy)] is found to fit better than a simple linear or linear-quadratic model. This increase in noncancer mortality is statistically demonstrable, generally, after 1965 and among the younger survivors (less than 40 at the time of the bombing), suggesting a sensitivity for this age group. For specific causes of death, an excess in relative risk at the high dose level, that is, 2 Gy or more, is seen in circulatory and digestive diseases. The relative risk is, however, much smaller than that for cancer. These findings, based as they are on death certificates, have their limitations. Most significant, perhaps, is the possible erroneous attribution of radiation-related cancer deaths to other causes. At present, the contribution such errors may make to the apparent increase in non-cancer deaths at the higher doses cannot be estimated as rigorously as is obviously desirable. However, even now, this increase does not appear to be fully explicable in terms of errors in classification. Further follow-up of mortality in this LSS cohort as well as disease revealed by the biennial physical examinations of the morbidity subsample (Adult Health Study) of the LSS cohort will be needed to confirm this suggestion of a radiation-related increase in mortality from causes other than cancer, and to determine whether it results in a demonstrable life shortening among the heavily exposed A-bomb survivors.     

Studies of the mortality of A-bomb survivors. 9. Mortality, 1950-1985: Part 2. Cancer mortality based on the recently revised doses (DS86)

The present study, the ninth in a series that began in 1961, extends the time of surveillance 3 more years and covers the period 1950-1985. It is based on the recently revised doses, termed the DS86. The impact of the change from the T65D to the DS86 on the dose-response relationships for cancer mortality was described in the first of this series of reports. Here, the focus is on cancer mortality among the 76,000 A-bomb survivors within the LSS sample for whom DS86 doses have been estimated, with the emphasis on biological issues associated with radiation carcinogenesis. Briefly, the following is found: The excess in leukemia mortality has continued to decline with time, but remains slightly but significantly elevated in 1981-1985 in Hiroshima. For cancers other than leukemia, as a group, excess deaths continue to increase over time in direct proportion to the normal increase in natural cancer mortality with increasing age, and the relative risk seems unchanged over time within age ATB cohorts. The single exception is the cohort under 10 years of age ATB. Within this group of survivors, where the relative risk, although based on relatively few deaths, has been quite high at the higher doses, as judged by deaths before the age of 30, the risk has fallen and has remained fairly constant at a lower level thereafter. Thus the present analysis still supports, in the main, estimation of lifetime risk based on the assumption of a constant relative risk. For the same age ATD, both the relative and absolute risks are higher for younger age ATB cohorts than older ones for cancers other than leukemia. There is no statistically significant difference in excess deaths between males and females except for leukemia, though the relative risk is higher for females than for males, significantly so for cancers of the esophagus and lung, reflecting the higher background cancer rate for males. Significant dose responses are observed for leukemia, cancers of the esophagus, stomach, colon, lung, breast, ovary, and urinary bladder and multiple myeloma, as previously observed. No significant increase is demonstrable as yet for cancers of the rectum, gallbladder, pancreas, uterus, and prostate and malignant lymphoma. In the present report, cancers of the bone, pharynx, nose, and larynx, and skin except melanoma are also examined, but none of these sites show a significant increase with dose.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)