Population genetic variation in rare and endangered Iliamna (Malvaceae) in Virginia

Random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) markers were used as input for an analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), homogeneity of molecular variance analysis (HOMOVA), and cluster analysis to describe the population genetic structure of Iliamna corei, a federally endangered plant located only in Virginia, and I. remota , a rare plant in Virginia, Indiana, and Illinois. The analysis was performed to help clarify the taxonomic relationship between the two closely related species. We analysed four clones in the only known population of I. corei , breeding stock derived from seeds originating from the population site, and three I. remota populations in Virginia. Eighty-five percent of screened primers revealed DNA polymorphisms in Iliamna. Ninety-nine informative markers were generated using seven primers. No significant statistical differences (at P = 0.05) in RAPD variation was found between species (24% of variance) using the AMOVA procedure. However, within species/among populations (31 % of the variance) and within populations (45% of the variance) there were significant differences (P < 0.002). An unweighted paired group method using arithmetic averages (UPGMA) cluster analysis showed the federally endangered I. corei population to be genetically distinct from the apparently recently introduced (in Virginia: ∼ 100 ybp) I. remota. The lack of significant differences from the AMOVA and the high number shared bands between I. corei and I. remota suggest that I. corei may be more appropriately classified as a subspecies of I. remota. Iliamna corei plants in the natural population were genetically similar to one another while the I. corei breeding stock plants and I. remota plants were genetically relatively diverse.     

Population Viability Analysis of the Epiphytic Ghost Orchid (Dendrophylax lindenii) in Cuba

To design feasible conservation and management policies for wild species, it is critical to understand the effects of periodic disturbances, be they natural or anthropogenic. The Caribbean Basin is characterized by high cyclonic activity that has a strong impact on the demography and population dynamics of many taxa, including epiphytic orchids. We conducted a 5‐yr study of rare ghost orchid demography, Dendrophylax lindenii, to assess the stability of a protected population of this species in Cuba. Using both stochastic and deterministic integral projection models, we found that mean annual population growth rates are negative (λ = 0.975). However, we found both population growth rate and extinction risk are highly sensitive to survival rates and reproduction, a difficult to quantify rate for many orchids including our study species. While this species is fairly long‐lived, its relatively slow increase in annual survival with increasing size may reflect the lack of a protected (i.e., subterranean) storage organ—a life‐history trait that may typify other epiphytic species and increase susceptibility to disturbance events. Hurricanes, which are predicted to increase in frequency as a result of climate change, dramatically increase adult mortality. Simulations of these effects indicate that hurricanes and similar disturbances could result in near certain extinction in short time horizons (25 yr) if their annual probability of occurrence exceeds 14 percent. These results suggest a need to better quantify recruitment rates, as well as the sensitivity of population dynamics of this and other orchid species to hurricanes and other periodic disturbances.     

生境片断化对濒危植物景东翅子树种群结构与动态的影响

生境的破坏及其片断化是生物多样性丧失的主要原因, 了解生境片断化对植物种群动态的影响十分必要。本文比较分析了不同大小生境片断(5 ha和15 ha)和连续森林中濒危植物景东翅子树(Pterospermum kingtungense)种群的结构与动态, 目的是明确影响景东翅子树种群动态的关键生活史阶段及其种群保护的目标, 为濒危植物种群保护和管理策略的制定提供科学依据。在上述3种生境中分别设立3个50 m × 100 m的1.5 ha固定样地, 调查景东翅子树所有个体的胸径(其中幼苗和幼树为地径)和高度、个体的存活及幼苗的补充情况。基于上述统计参数, 建立预测种群动态的Lefkovitch矩阵模型, 同时应用矩阵模型的弹性分析方法量化种群统计参数对种群增长率的相对贡献。结果表明: (1)在5 ha和15 ha生境片断及连续森林各1.5 ha的样地中, 2018年首次调查到景东翅子树的个体数分别为34、82和88株, 2019年复查时的个体数分别为33、82和87株。3种生境中景东翅子树种群的年龄结构均以幼树为主, 但5 ha生境片断森林缺乏幼苗和大树(包括成树和亚成树), 而15 ha生境片断森林幼苗较丰富。(2)在3种生境中景东翅子树种群的增长率等于1 (15 ha生境片断)或趋近于1 (5 ha生境片断和连续森林), 说明不同生境中的景东翅子树种群比较稳定, 这主要是因为其各生活史阶段的存活率均较高。(3)景东翅子树成树和亚成树阶段的存活率对种群增长率的贡献最大, 是影响其种群动态的关键生活史阶段。因此对于大树(包括成树和亚成树)的保护是极度濒危植物景东翅子树种群维持的关键。研究结果揭示小生境片断降低了景东翅子树种群的数量, 改变了种群的结构, 但对种群动态的影响效应尚未显现。因此对于这些小生境片断中濒危植物种群的保护和恢复是可行的, 也是有价值的。     

Impact of Spatial and Temporal Variation in Calf Survival on the Growth of Elk Populations

Abstract: The realized impact of a vital rate on population growth (λ) is determined by both the relative influence of the vital rate on λ (elasticity) and its magnitude of variability. We estimated mean survival and reproductive rates in elk (Cervus elaphus) and spatial and temporal variation in these rates from 37 sources located primarily across the Rocky Mountain region and northwestern United States. We removed sampling variance from estimates of process variance both within and across vital-rate data sets using the variance discounting method developed by White (2000). Deterministic elasticities calculated from a population matrix model parameterized with these mean vital rates ranked adult female survival (e_Scow = 0.869) much higher than calf survival (e_Scalf = 0.131). However, process variance in calf survival was >11 times greater than process variance in female survival across data sets and 10 times greater on average within studies. We conducted Life-Stage Simulation Analysis to incorporate both vital-rate elasticity patterns and empirical estimates of variability to identify those vital rates most influential in elk population dynamics. The overwhelming magnitude of variation in calf survival explained 75% of the variation in the population growth rates generated from 1,000 matrix replicates, compared to just 16% of the variation in λ explained by variation in female survival. Variation in calf survival greatly impacts elk population growth and calls into question the utility of classical elasticity analysis alone for guiding elk management. These results also suggest that the majority of interannual variability that wildlife managers document in late-winter and spring elk surveys is attributable to variation in calf survival over the previous year and less influenced by variation in the harvest of females during the preceding autumn. To meet elk population size objectives, managers should consider the inherent variation in calf survival, and its apparent sensitivity to management, in addition to female harvest.     

Population modelling of Gelidium sesquipedale (Rhodophyta, Gelidiales)

A matrix population model of Gelidium sesquipedale, a commercial agarophyte from the Northeast Atlantic, was developed based on demographic data obtained during two years in a commercial stand of Cape Espichel, Portugal. G. sesquipedale individuals were classified into categories such as life cycle phase, spores, juveniles and adult frond size, because the species vital rates, fecundity, fertility, survival, growth and breakage depend on them. We also exemplify the use of a user-friendly modelling software, Stella, to develop a structured-population model. This is the first time this software has been used to model the demography of seaweed populations. The Stella model developed here behaved very similarly to the matrix model, because of its particular construction, which causes the forcing functions to be discrete rather than continuous. The relative importance of spore recruitment and vegetative growth of new fronds in both population growth and population structure was investigated. Elasticity analysis suggests that vegetative recruitment is the most important demographic parameter controlling population growth together with survival and transitions between juveniles (1–6 cm fronds) and class 1 fronds (6–9 cm fronds). On the other hand, sexual reproduction may, by itself, efficiently control the relative proportion of gametophytes and tetrasporophytes in the population, even though its contribution to recruitment is extremely small. A 40% difference in the growth rates of gametophyte and tetrasporophyte submatrices resulted from natural differences in spore recruitment rates. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Population Dynamics of Breeding Mallards in the Great Lakes States

Abstract: Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) populations in the United States portion of the Great Lakes region increased through the 1990s but have since declined. To promote sustainable growth of this population, managers need to understand how perturbation of vital rates will affect annual population growth rate (Λ). We developed a stage-based model representing the female mallard population in the Great Lakes using vital rates generated from a landscape-level study documenting reproductive parameters from 2001 to 2003. We conducted perturbation analyses (i.e., sensitivity analyses) to identify vital rates that most influence Λ and variance decomposition analyses to determine the proportion of variation in Λ explained by variation in each vital rate. Perturbation analyses indicated that Λ was most sensitive to changes in nonbreeding survival, duckling survival, and nest success. Therefore, changes in these vital rates would be expected to result in the greatest ΔΛ. Process variation in breeding season parameters accounted for 63% of variation in Λ. Breeding season parameters explaining the most variation were duckling survival (32%) and nest success (16%). Survival of adult females outside the breeding season accounted for 36% of variation in Λ. Harvest derivation, high harvest, and high sensitivity of Λ to nonbreeding survival for Great Lakes female mallards suggests there is a strong potential for managing the Great Lakes mallard population via harvest management. Because Λ was highly sensitive to changes in duckling survival, we suggest programs that emphasize wetland protection, enhancement, and restoration as a management strategy to improve population growth for breeding mallards.     

Stochastic matrix models for conservation and management: a comparative review of methods

Stochastic matrix models are frequently used by conservation biologists to measure the viability of species and to explore various management actions. Models are typically parameterized using two or more sets of estimated transition rates between age/size/stage classes. While standard methods exist for analyzing a single set of transition rates, a variety of methods have been employed to analyze multiple sets of transition rates. We review applications of stochastic matrix models to problems in conservation and use simulation studies to compare the performance of different analytic methods currently in use. We find that model conclusions are likely to be robust to the choice of parametric distribution used to model vital rate fluctuations over time. However, conclusions can be highly sensitive to the within-year correlation structure among vital rates, and therefore we suggest using analytical methods that provide a means of conducting a sensitivity analysis with respect to correlation parameters. Our simulation results also suggest that the precision of population viability estimates can be improved by using matrix models that incorporate environmental covariates in conjunction with experiments to estimate transition rates under a range of environmental conditions.     

Population dynamics of the Mexican cycad Dioon edule Lindl. (Zamiaceae): life history stages and management impact

The demographic dynamics of three populations of Dioon edule Lindl. (Zamiaceae) were studied in a fragmented landscape using projection matrix modelling. Compared with other plant species, D. edule behaves like a tree life-form species. Density and spatial distribution patterns varied among populations according to models for animal-dispersed tree species. In all scenarios, λ was most sensitive to changes in abundance of adult plants. The elasticity reproductive component (F) for the three populations was zero and stasis values (L) were higher, this being a function of the permanence of non-reproductive individuals. It was detected that disturbance influences the population dynamics of D. edule as a function of adult plant persistence. This observation suggests that the conservation of adult plants is critical for D. edule and perhaps for all cycads species. Adult plant decapitation should be halted at the 'Monte Oscuro' population, subjected to sustainable management since 1990, if higher seed production is needed in rural nurseries.  © 2008 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society , 2008, 157 , 381–391.     

Decomposition rate of plant material in the Parana Medio River (Argentina)

The degradation of plant material in the centre of two plain streams (the Parana Medio River main channel – 0.6 m.s^–1 - and the Colorado River – 0.03 m.s.^–1) was studied in order to obtain a degradation coefficient for the species Panicum prionitis, Paspalum repens and Eichhornia crassipes, representative of the vegetation of the area of the future man-made lake of the Parana Medio, Dam. The experimental sites were chosen at the limit (minimum and maximum) velocities of the two streams in the valley to be flooded.The plant samples (submerged at different depths) were periodically analysed during 80 days, the experimental data being fitted to an exponential decomposition model. Degradation coefficients ranged from 0.0357 to 0.0682 day^–1 (P. prionitis); from 0.0182 to 0.0643 day^–1 (P. repens) and from 0.0120 to 0.0425 day^–1 (E. crassipes). The incidence of leaching and fragmentation on the decomposition of plant materials was also studied.     

Population biology of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Kosteletzkya pentacarpos</Emphasis> (Malvaceae) in the Llobregat delta (Catalonia,NE of Spain)

Field experiments and wild population monitoring have been performed to study the population biology of the rare long-lived Kosteletzkya pentacarpos (Malvaceae) in the Llobregat delta (Catalonia, NE Spain). Field experiments explored the fate of seeds in soil at different depths, seedling emergence, and seedling survival, growth and flowering with and without canopy cover during the first 2 years of life. They also were used to ascertain the size-related pattern of seedling survivorship and flowering. Field data concerning mortality, growth and fecundity of adult plants were collected yearly in three wild populations for 7–9 years. In old adults (reproducing long before the beginning of the study), ANOVAR tests were performed to compare maximum diameter, total and fertile shoots, and viable seeds per plant between years and populations. New adults (starting flowering the first year of study or in subsequent years) were used to explore, using linear and polynomial regressions, the association of RGR and both total and fertile shoot production with (i) plant size (maximum basal diameter or its logarithm); (ii) plant age (years in adult stage); and (iii) plant age after removing the effect of size and year-to-year fluctuations. In this case, we examined the age-related pattern of the residuals obtained from the regressions with size and year. The study identified the following main demographic features of K. pentacarpos: (i) transient, shallow soil seed bank; (ii) shade tolerance of seedling emergence; (iii) canopy-facilitation of seedling survival and bolting during the first two years of life; (iv) size-related pattern for seedling survivorship but not flowering; (v) exclusive dependence on a fluctuating seed output for reproduction; (vi) rapid adult growth; and (vii) high adult longevity but (viii) rapid depletion of fecundity with age. Seed output was highly constrained by mining insects. The changing size-structure and the decreasing reproductive success of old adults in several populations suggest that K. pentacarpos might undergo a dynamics of population establishment and extinction in the Ricarda marshes. Because of fluctuating reproduction and the lack of a persistent seed bank, the conservation of standing adult populations appears to be a key factor to ensure the persistence of the species.     

Population dynamics of a threatened cactus species: general assessment and effects of matrix dimensionality

Harrisia portoricensis is an endemic Caribbean cactus currently under threatened status. In this study we used population projection matrices to evaluate the conservation status of this species and we performed a systematic analysis of the effects of matrix dimensionality on the inferred demographic parameters. Results revealed that population growth rates (λ) were 0.946 and 0.961 for the 2007–2008 and 2008–2009 periods respectively, suggesting a declining population with limited persistence ability. Even when the highest elasticity values corresponded to the survival of adults, numerical simulations suggested that increases in either seedling establishment or fecundity could render λ > 1. Our empirical-based analysis using raw demographic data revealed a clear trend for λ values to decrease with increasing matrix dimension. Stasis and fecundity elasticities were also found to decrease whereas retrogression and growth elasticitites increased with increasing matrix dimension. These results are roughly insensitive to the method used to create matrices of different dimensions. For H. portoricensis, large matrices with narrow classifications were required to minimize variations in λ, highlighting the need for large data sets to assess the convergence of results with matrix dimensionality. Our combined results emphasize that under current scenarios the ability of H. portoricensis for population growth is severely limited. Any management strategy designed for the conservation of this species should consider long-term monitoring of populations as well as programs that enhance seedling establishment and adult survival.     

Population dynamics of a pathogen: the conundrum of vivax malaria

Building a mathematical model of population dynamics of pathogens within their host involves considerations of factors similar to those in ecology, as pathogens can prey on cells in the host. But within the multicellular host, attacked cell types are integrated with other cellular systems, which in turn intervene in the infection. For example, immune responses attempt to sense and then eliminate or contain pathogens, and homeostatic mechanisms try to compensate for cell loss. This review focuses on modeling applied to malarias, diseases caused by single-cell eukaryote parasites that infect red blood cells, with special concern given to vivax malaria, a disease often thought to be benign (if sometimes incapacitating) because the parasite only attacks a small proportion of red blood cells, the very youngest ones. However, I will use mathematical modeling to argue that depletion of this pool of red blood cells can be disastrous to the host if growth of the parasite is not vigorously check by host immune responses. Also, modeling can elucidate aspects of new field observations that indicate that vivax malaria is more dangerous than previously thought.     

Decomposition and nutrient liberation rates of plant material in the Parana medio River (Argentina)

The degradation of plant material was studied in order to obtain degradation coefficients and nutrient release kinetics of the vegetation that will be submerged during the filling of the future Parana Medio man-made lake. A group of 13 plant species representative of the whole vegetation of the area were chosen.The plant samples (submerged at 2.5–4 m in the Setubal lagoon), were periodically analyzed during 97 days. The experimental data were fitted to an exponential decomposition model. The plants were classified according to their velocities of degradation into three groups: fast (K>0.01), mean (0.01>K>0.005) and slow (K<0.005). The curves of release of P, N, Ca, Mg, Na and K in function of time are presented and discussed.     

Population dynamics of the non-native freshwater gastropod,Cipangopaludina chinensis (Viviparidae): a capture-mark-recapture study

Capture-mark-recapture (CMR) is commonly used in conservation biology, but rarely used to study non-native species in freshwater habitats. The power of CMR lies in the ability to go beyond simple density estimates and to quantify invasion dynamics and vital population parameters. I applied CMR to a population of the non-native Chinese mystery snail (Cipangopaludina chinensis, Viviparidae) in a 1.46 ha pond on Long Island, NY to estimate population size and survival probability in the waterbody and to uncover potential mechanisms for enormous differences in introduction success within and between waterbodies (observed densities range <1–40 individuals m^?2). The C. chinensis population increased from approximately 150 to nearly 970 individuals from 2010 to 2012. Daily capture probabilities were low (<0.2) for snails of all sizes. Daily survival probabilities were size-dependent (almost 1.0 for snails larger than 30 mm shell length, and decreasing below that threshold), suggesting size-dependent mortality. This study highlights the ease of applying CMR to C. chinensis and its potential for other non-native species. Traditional survey methods such as density estimates with transects or quadrats cannot document increasing population sizes or size-specific mortality factors, which are essential for understanding introduction success and dynamics.     

The role of long‐distance seed dispersal in the local population dynamics of an invasive plant species

Aim Long‐distance dispersal is important for plant population dynamics at larger spatial scales, but our understanding of this phenomenon is mostly based on computer modelling rather than field data. This paper, by combining field data and a simulation model, quantifies the fraction of the seed of the alien species Heracleum mantegazzianum that needs to disperse over a long distance for successful invasion. Location Central Europe, Czech Republic. Methods To assess the role of random dispersal in long‐term population dynamics of the studied species, we combined longitudinal data covering 50 years of the invasion of this plant from its very start, inferred from a series of aerial photographs of 60‐ha plots, with data on population dynamics at a fine scale of 10‐m² plots. Results A simulation model based on field data indicates that the fraction of seed that is dispersed from source plants not described by the short‐distance dispersal kernel ranges from 0.1 to 7.5% of the total seed set. The fraction of long‐distance dispersed seed that provides the best prediction of the observed spread was significantly negatively correlated with the percentage of habitats suitable for invasion. Main conclusions Our results indicate that the fraction of seeds that needed to be dispersed over long distances to account for the observed invasion dynamics decreased with increasing proportion of invasible habitats, indicating that the spatial pattern of propagule pressure differs in landscapes prone to invasion. Long‐distance dispersal is an important component of the population dynamics of an invasive species even at relatively small scales.