Inverted patterns of genetic diversity in continental and island populations of the heather Erica scoparia s.l.

Aim Using the heather Erica scoparia s.l. as a model, this paper aims to test theoretical predictions that island populations are genetically less diverse than continental ones and to determine the extent to which island and continental populations are connected by pollen‐ and seed‐mediated gene flow. Location Macaronesia, Mediterranean, Atlantic fringe of Europe. Methods Patterns of genetic diversity are described based on variation at two chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) loci and one nuclear DNA (nDNA) locus for 109 accessions across the entire distribution range of the species. Global patterns of genetic differentiation were investigated using principal coordinates analysis. Genetic differentiation between island and continental areas, estimations of pollen‐ and seed‐mediated gene flow, and the presence of phylogeographical signal were assessed by means of F_st /N_ST (continental scale) and F_ij/N_ij (local scale). Extant and past distribution ranges of the species were inferred from niche modelling using layers describing present and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) macroclimatic conditions. Results The Azores exhibited a significantly higher genetic diversity than the continent. The lowest levels of genetic differentiation were observed between the Azores and the western Mediterranean, and the diversity observed in the Azores resulted from at least two colonization waves. Within the Azores, kinship coefficients showed a significant and much steeper decrease with geographical distance in the cpDNA than in the nDNA. The distribution predicted by LGM models was markedly different from the current potential distribution, particularly in western Europe, where no suitable areas were predicted by LGM models, and along the Atlantic coast of the African continent, where LGM models predicted highly suitable climatic conditions. Main conclusions The higher diversity observed in Azorean than in continental populations is inconsistent with MacArthur and Wilson’s equilibrium model and derived theoretical population genetic expectations. This inverted pattern may be the result of extinction on the continent coupled with multiple island colonization events and subsequent allopatric diversification and lineage hybridization in the Azores. The results highlight the role of allopatric diversification in explaining diversification on islands and suggest that this process has played a much more significant role in shaping Azorean biodiversity than previously thought.     

Pleistocene Niche Stability and Lineage Diversification in the Subtropical Spider Araneus omnicolor (Araneidae)

The influence of Quaternary climate oscillations on the diversification of the South American fauna is being increasingly explored. However, most of these studies have focused on taxa that are endemic to tropical environments, and relatively few have treated organisms restricted to subtropical biomes. Here we used an integrative phylogeographical framework to investigate the effects of these climate events on the ecological niche and genetic patterns of the subtropical orb-weaver spider Araneus omnicolor (Araneidae). We analyzed the mitochondrial (Cytochrome Oxidase I, COI) and nuclear (Internal Transcribed Subunit II, ITS2) DNA of 130 individuals throughout the species’ range, and generated distribution models in three different climate scenarios [present, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Last Interglacial Maximum (LIG)]. Additionally, we used an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach to compare possible demographic scenarios and select the hypothesis that better explains the genetic patterns of A. omnicolor. We obtained high haplotype diversity but low nucleotide variation among sequences. The population structure and demographic analyses showed discrepancies between markers, suggesting male-biased dispersal in the species. The time-calibrated COI phylogenetic inference showed a recent diversification of lineages (Middle/Late Pleistocene), while the paleoclimate modeling indicated niche stability since ~120 Kya. The ABC results agreed with the niche models, supporting a panmictic population as the most likely historical scenario for the species. These results indicate that A. omnicolor experienced no niche or population reductions during the Late Pleistocene, despite the intense landscape modifications that occurred in the subtropical region, and that other factors beside LGM and LIG climate oscillations might have contributed to the demographic history of this species. This pattern may be related to the high dispersal ability and wide environmental tolerance of A. omnicolor, highlighting the need for more phylogeographical studies with invertebrates and other generalist taxa, in order to understand the effects of Quaternary climate changes on Neotropical biodiversity.     

Uncommon paleodistribution patterns of Chrysolophus pheasants in east Asia: explanations and implications

Some modeling studies indicated that the past distributions of species in east Asia during the Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) periods differ from those of European and North American species and the deviant Asian distribution pattern is known under the term ‘pre‐LGM expansion’. It represents the unusually similar distribution patterns between the current and the LGM scenario. However, there is still no satisfying explanation for this phenomenon so far. Therefore, we took the two recently separated pheasant species of genus Chrysolophus in east Asia as an example to test the pattern by performing ecological niche models. The main findings of this study include: 1) the paleodistributions of these two pheasants also corresponded to the ‘pre‐LGM expansion’ pattern; 2) climatic similarity results from mobility‐oriented parity analysis also revealed similar pattern for both species; 3) climate regimes of east Asia showed patterns different from those in Europe and North America in a climate shift towards drier conditions and stronger seasonality and to more extreme temperatures of the coldest months particularly during the LIG; 4) the two Chrysolophus species occupied significantly different ecological niches according to current distribution. We suggest that ecological segregation established in allopatric glacial refugia should be the main determinants for the separation of two Chrysolophus species until they came into extant post‐Pleistocene contact.     

Evolutionary history of the scorpionfly Dicerapanorpa magna (Mecoptera,Panorpidae)

Climate changes can have fundamental impacts on the distributional patterns of montane species, and range shifts frequently lead to allopatric divergence followed by the establishment of secondary contact zones. Many European and North American organisms have retreated to southern refugia during glacial periods and colonized northward during postglacial periods, but little is known about the evolutionary response of cold‐adapted insects to Pleistocene climate changes in eastern Asia. The scorpionfly Dicerapanorpa magna (Chou), with cold temperate habitat preference and weak dispersal ability, provides a good model system to explore how climate changes have influenced the distribution and divergence of cold‐adapted insects in eastern Asia. This study reconstructed the demographic dynamics and evolutionary history of D. magna with phylogeographic approaches, and predicted the species’ suitable areas under the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and current scenarios with the ecological niche modelling analysis. The mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I resolved three phylogenetic lineages in D. magna dating back to Pleistocene, corresponding well with the geographically isolated Qinling, Bashan and Minshan Mountains. The ecological niche modelling recovered the suitable habitats for D. magna were the Qinling and Bashan Mountains under LGM and current conditions. The three lineages of D. magna might be in a process of incipient speciation, and likely derived their current distribution from separate glacial origins, followed by vicariance and divergence.     

Centaurea subsect. Phalolepis in Southern Italy: ongoing speciation or species overestimation? Genetic evidence based on SSRs analyses

In this paper, we investigated a set of narrow endemics of Centaurea subsect. Phalolepis from the mountains of South Italy (mainly Calabria and Salento), segregated from the widespread species Centaurea deusta, using microsatellite (SSR) markers. The goal was to analyse the genetic makeup (levels and structure) of C. deusta and the segregated species and verify whether genetic clusters were in agreement with current classification of the species. With C. deusta, we also carried out an ecological niche modelling (ENM) analysis to check its potential distribution under present climatic conditions and to project it to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). As also found in former studies with subsect. Phalolepis in Greece and Turkey using the same set of SSRs, genetic diversity for the segregated Italian species was higher than expected for narrow endemics with small populations. Genetic clusters, however, were not correlated with the described species and did not support the segregation of the purported narrow endemics from a widely defined C. deusta. The results of the ENM indicate that the Adriatic Sea was a migration corridor for C. deusta at the LGM.     

Phylogeography and ecological niche modelling of the New Zealand stick insect Clitarchus hookeri (White) support survival in multiple coastal refugia

Aim Increasing our understanding of the effects of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and determining the location of refugia requires studies on widely distributed species with dense sampling of populations. We have reconstructed the biogeographic history of Clitarchus hookeri (White), a widespread species of New Zealand stick insect that exhibits geographic parthenogenesis, using phylogeographic analysis and ecological niche modelling. Location New Zealand. Methods We used DNA sequence data from the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships among haplotypes from C. hookeri and two undescribed Clitarchus species. We also used distribution data from our own field surveys and museum records to reconstruct the geographic distribution of C. hookeri during the present and the LGM, using ecological niche modelling. Results The ecological niche models showed that the geographic distribution of C. hookeri has expanded dramatically since the LGM. Our model predicted large areas of suitable LGM habitat in upper North Island, and small patches along the east coast of South Island. The phylogeographic analysis shows that populations in the northern half of North Island contain much higher levels of genetic variation than those from southern North Island and South Island, and is congruent with the ecological niche model. The distribution of bisexual populations is also non-random, with males completely absent from South Island and very rare in southern North Island. Main conclusions During the LGM C. hookeri was most likely restricted to several refugia in upper North Island and one or more smaller refugia along the east coast of South Island. The unisexual populations predominate in post-glacial landscapes and are clearly favoured in the recolonization of such areas. Our study exemplifies the utility of integrating ecological niche modelling and phylogeographic analysis.     

Postglacial northward expansion and genetic differentiation between migratory and sedentary populations of the broad‐tailed hummingbird (Selasphorus platycercus)

Unlike other migratory hummingbirds in North America, the broad‐tailed hummingbird (Selasphorus platycercus) exhibits both long‐distance migratory behaviour in the USA and sedentary behaviour in Mexico and Guatemala. We examined the evolution of migration linked to its northward expansion using a multiperspective approach. We analysed variation in morphology, mitochondrial and nuclear DNA, estimated migration rates between migratory and sedentary populations, compared divergence times with the occurrence of Quaternary climate events and constructed species distribution models to predict where migratory and sedentary populations resided during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Last Interglacial (LIG) events. Our results are consistent with a recent northward population expansion driven by migration from southern sedentary populations. Phylogeographical analyses and population genetics methods revealed that migratory populations in the USA and sedentary populations in Mexico of the platycercus subspecies form one admixed population, and that sedentary populations from southern Mexico and Guatemala (guatemalae) undertook independent evolutionary trajectories. Species distribution modelling revealed that the species is a niche tracker and that the climate conditions associated with modern obligate migrants in the USA were not present during the LIG, which provides indirect evidence for recent migratory behaviour in broad‐tailed hummingbirds on the temporal scale of glacial cycles. The finding that platycercus hummingbirds form one genetic population and that suitable habitat for migratory populations was observed in eastern Mexico during the LIG also suggests that the conservation of overwintering sites is crucial for obligate migratory populations currently facing climate change effects.     

Initial diversification,glacial survival,and continuous range expansion of Gentiana straminea (Gentianaceae) in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) has been considered as one of the most sensitive regions to climate change on Earth, and the growth and distribution of alpine species on this plateau have been suggested to depend greatly on their ability to survive within a small range of temperatures. However, the responses of most species in the QTP to the Quaternary climatic oscillation remain largely unknown. We sequenced two cpDNA fragments and nrITS to examine genetic variations in 22 natural populations across the range of distribution in this region to investigate the phylogeographical distributional pattern of Gentiana straminea (Gentianaceae) in the QTP. The high haplotype diversity from populations on the platform suggested the existence of intraspecific diversification. Molecular dating estimated that all haplotypes have differentiated before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Moreover, the haplotype distribution map based on both cpDNA and nrDNA data suggested expansions from QTP to its outer edges. Finally, ecological niche modeling further demonstrated the glacial survival of this species on the platform and continuous expansion to the platform edge. These findings imply that G. straminea should have experienced initial diversification, glacial survival on the platform, and continuous expansion to the QTP edge during the glacial period.     

The role of niche divergence and phenotypic adaptation in promoting lineage diversification in the Sage Sparrow (Artemisiospiza belli,Aves: Emberizidae)

Niche divergence or conservatism and phenotypic adaptation are important in lineage diversification. We used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), morphology and ecological niche models to examine these processes in three subspecies of Sage Sparrow (Artemisiospiza belli belli, A. b. canescens and A. b. nevadensis) that breed in bioclimatically diverse ecoregions in western North America. Overall, mtDNA and morphology are congruent with subspecies, ecoregion and bioclimatic niche. Niche divergence, rather than niche conservatism, accompanied by phenotypic adaptation, is associated with lineage diversification between subspecies. This diversification has occurred with and without physical barriers or accompanying genetic divergence. Populations of A. b. canescens are divided by a montane barrier into two bioclimatic regions (San Joaquin Valley, Mojave Desert), where they are indistinguishable phenotypically, but show distinctive genetic patterns. Although there is no physical barrier between A. b. canescens in the San Joaquin Valley and A. b. belli in the Coast Ranges, these populations occupy different bioclimatic niches and are phenotypically, but not genetically, diagnosable. Niche overlap is greatest between A. b. canescens from the Mojave Desert and A. b. nevadensis from the Great Basin, yet these subspecies maintain distinctive phenotypes and mtDNA, even in local secondary contact and sympatry. Palaeoclimatic niche models for the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 21 000 bp ) and the Last Interglacial (c. 120 000 bp ) suggest that ecoregionally distinct populations of Artemisiospiza belli experienced different Pleistocene range fluctuations and glacial refugia, with temporal niche conservatism. Populations probably reached their current distributions as favourable climates and habitats expanded after the last glaciation. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, ??, ??–??.     

Past,present, and future geographic range of the relict Mediterranean and Macaronesian Juniperus phoenicea complex

AimThe aim of this study is to model the past, current, and future distribution of J. phoenicea s.s., J. turbinata, and J. canariensis, based on bioclimatic variables using a maximum entropy model (Maxent) in the Mediterranean and Macaronesian regions.LocationMediterranean and Macaronesian.TaxonCupressaceae, Juniperus.MethodsData on the occurrence of the J. phoenicea complex were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF.org), the literature, herbaria, and the authors’ field notes. Bioclimatic variables were obtained from the WorldClim database and Paleoclim. The climate data related to species localities were used for predictions of niches by implementation of Maxent, and the model was evaluated with ENMeval.ResultsThe potential niches of Juniperus phoenicea during the Last Interglacial period (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum climate (LGM), and Mid‐Holocene (MH) covered 30%, 10%, and almost 100%, respectively, of the current potential niche. Climate warming may reduce potential niches by 30% in RCP2.6 and by 90% in RCP8.5. The potential niches of Juniperus turbinata had a broad circum‐Mediterranean and Canarian distribution during the LIG and the MH; its distribution extended during the LGM when it was found in more areas than at present. The predicted warming in scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 could reduce the current potential niche by 30% and 50%, respectively. The model did not find suitable niches for J. canariensis during the LIG and the LGM, but during the MH its potential niche was 30% larger than at present. The climate warming scenario RCP2.6 indicates a reduction in the potential niche by 30%, while RCP8.5 so indicates a reduction of almost 60%.Main conclusionsThis research can provide information for increasing the protection of the juniper forest and for counteracting the phenomenon of local extinctions caused by anthropic pressure and climate changes.     

Phylogeography and ecological niche modelling implicate coastal refugia and trans‐alpine dispersal of a New Zealand fungus beetle

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) severely restricted forest ecosystems on New Zealand’s South Island, but the extent of LGM distribution for forest species is still poorly understood. We used mitochondrial DNA phylogeography (COI) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) to identify LGM refugia for the mycophagous beetle Agyrtodes labralis (Leiodidae), a forest edge species widely distributed in the South Island. Both the phylogenetic analyses and the ENM indicate that A. labralis refuged in Kaikoura, Nelson, and along much of the South Island’s west coast. Phylogeography of this species indicates that recolonization of the largely deforested east and southeast South Island occurred in a west–east direction, with populations moving through the Southern Alps, and that the northern refugia participated little in interglacial population expansion. This contradicts published studies of other New Zealand species, in which recolonization occurs in a north–south fashion from many of the same refugia.     

Climate niche shift in invasive species: the case of the brown anole

Anolis sagrei, a Cuba and Bahama native lizard, is a successful invader in Florida and adjacent areas. Herein, we focus on conservatism in its climate niche axes and possible congruencies with its natural history properties. The not mutually exclusive hypotheses of the present study explaining its northern range limit are: (1) climatic conditions within species' native and invasive ranges are identical; (2) the species is pre‐adapted to novel conditions as a result of historical climate variations; and (3) only some niche axes limit the species' invasive distribution and the observed pattern is explained by an interplay between the potential niche within its native range and life‐history. Species distribution models for native and invasive distributions were built on ten bioclimatic variables. Using Schoener's niche overlap index, the degree of niche conservatism among variables was identified. Significances of hypothesis (1) were tested using null‐model approaches. Possible climatic pre‐adaptations were evaluated by comparing its actual tolerance within its invasive range with that of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) within its native range (hypothesis 2). Results of (1) and (2) are discussed in relation to natural history, approaching hypothesis 3. We detect varying overlaps in niche axes, indicating that natural history properties are associated with conservative niche axes. Climatic comparisons with LGM of native and current conditions of invasive range suggest that pre‐adaptations are unlikely. Possible shifts in the fundamental niche of the species may have been facilitated by enhanced genetic diversity in northern invasive populations. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 104 , 943–954.     

Niche shifting in response to warming climate after the last glacial maximum: inference from genetic data and niche assessments in the chisel‐toothed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys microps)

During Pleistocene glacial‐interglacial cycles, the geographic range is often assumed to have shifted as a species tracks its climatic niche. Alternatively, the geographic range would not necessarily shift if a species can adapt in situ to a changing environment. The potential for a species to persist in place might increase with the diversity of habitat types that a species exploits. We evaluate evidence for either range shift or range stability between the last glacial maximum (LGM) and present time in the chisel‐toothed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys microps), an endemic of the Great Basin and Mojave deserts. We modeled how the species’ range would have changed if the climatic niche of the species remained conserved between the LGM and present time. The climatic models imply that if D. microps inhabited the same climatic niche during the LGM as it does today, the species would have persisted primarily within the warm Mojave Desert and expanded northwards into the cold Great Basin only after the LGM. Contrary to the climatic models, the mitochondrial DNA assessment revealed signals of population persistence within the current distribution of the species throughout at least the latest glacial‐interglacial cycle. We concluded that D. microps did not track its climatic niche during late Pleistocene oscillations, but rather met the challenge of a changing environment by shifting its niche and retaining large portions of its distribution. We speculate that this kind of response to fluctuating climate was possible because of ‘niche drifting’, an alteration of the species’ realized niche due to plasticity in various biological characters. Our study provides an example of an approach to reconstruct species’ responses to past climatic changes that can be used to evaluate whether and to what extent taxa have capacity to shift their niches in response to the changing environment – information becoming increasingly important to predicting biotic responses to future environmental changes.     

Pleistocene climate changes shaped the divergence and demography of Asian populations of the great tit Parus major: evidence from phylogeographic analysis and ecological niche models

Different scales and frequencies of glaciations developed in Europe and Asia during the Pleistocene. Because species’ responses to climate change are influenced by interactive factors including ecology and local topography, the pattern and tempo of species diversification may vary significantly across regions. The great tit Parus major is a widespread Eurasian passerine with a range that encircles the central Asian desert and high‐altitude areas of the Tibetan Plateau. A number of genetic studies have assessed the effect of paleo‐climate changes on the distribution of the European population. However, none have comprehensively addressed how paleo‐climate change affected the distribution of the great tit in China, an apparent hotspot of P. major subspecific diversity. Here, we describe likely paleo‐climatic effects on P. major populations in China based on a combination of phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs). We sequenced three mitochondrial DNA markers from 28 populations (213 individuals), and downloaded 112 sequences from outside its Chinese range. As the first step in clarifying the intra‐specific relationships among haplotypes, we attempted to clarify the divergence and demography of populations in China. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that P. major is comprised of five highly divergent clades with geographic breaks corresponding to steep mountains and dry deserts. A previously undescribed monophyletic clade with high genetic diversity, stable niches and a long and independent evolutionary history was detected in the mountainous areas of southwest China. The estimated times at which these clades diverged was traced back to the Early‐Middle Pleistocene (2.19–0.61 mya). Contrary to the post‐LGM (the Last Glacial Maximum) expansion of European populations, demographic history indicates that Asian populations expanded before the LGM after which they remained relatively stable or grew slowly through the LGM. ENMs support this conclusion and predict a similar distribution in the present and the LGM. Our genetic and ecological results demonstrate that Pleistocene climate changes shaped the divergence and demography of P. major in China.     

Environmental niche divergence between genetically distant lineages of an endangered water beetle

Historically, there has been considerable disagreement between researchers about the criteria used to discriminate among species. Decisions based on traditional morphological and genetic data alone can be potentially problematic, especially if the hypotheses are contradictory. Today, taxonomy is integrating new methods from different disciplines that study species' limits and evolution; this diverse range of evidence aids researchers in the recognition of species. Differences in niche characteristics could become a new and useful criterion in helping to decide the status of conflicting taxonomical entities. Ochthebius glaber (family Hydraenidae) is an endangered water beetle typical from southeast Iberian hypersaline streams that shows three clear discrete genetic units within its distribution range. However, there is no evidence to date that these lineages of O. glaber exhibit any adaptive morphological or ecological divergence. Using a modelling approach directed to generate niche representation from distributional data, we found a significant environmental niche divergence for allopatric lineages of O. glaber that followed an aridity gradient. Although we can not conclude firmly at present that the separate populations of O. glaber studied represent separate, reproductively isolated species, the present study complements and supports previous phylogeographic analyses through the inclusion of measures of another form of evolutionary change; in this case, ecological diversification. Despite the existence of some methodological limitations, also discussed in the present study, we emphasize the importance of recent conceptual advances that allow taxonomy to improve species delimitation practices through the integration of theory and methods from disciplines that study the origin and evolution of species. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 103 , 891–903.     

Late Pleistocene speciation of three closely related tree peonies endemic to the Qinling–Daba Mountains,a major glacial refugium in Central China

Determining the factors promoting speciation is a major task in ecological and evolutionary research and can be aided by phylogeographic analysis. The Qinling–Daba Mountains (QDM) located in central China form an important geographic barrier between southern subtropical and northern temperate regions, and exhibit complex topography, climatic, and ecological diversity. Surprisingly, few phylogeographic analyses and studies of plant speciation in this region have been conducted. To address this issue, we investigated the genetic divergence and evolutionary histories of three closely related tree peony species (Paeonia qiui, P. jishanensis, and P. rockii) endemic to the QDM. Forty populations of the three tree peony species were genotyped using 22 nuclear simple sequence repeat markers (nSSRs) and three chloroplast DNA sequences to assess genetic structure and phylogenetic relationships, supplemented by morphological characterization and ecological niche modeling (ENM). Morphological and molecular genetic analyses showed the three species to be clearly differentiated from each other. In addition, coalescent analyses using DIYABC conducted on nSSR variation indicated that the species diverged from each other in the late Pleistocene, while ecological niche modeling (ENM) suggested they occupied a larger area during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than at present. The combined genetic evidence from nuclear and chloroplast DNA and the results of ENM indicate that each species persisted through the late Pleistocene in multiple refugia in the Qinling, Daba, and Taihang Mountains with divergence favored by restricted gene flow caused by geographic isolation, ecological divergence, and limited pollen and seed dispersal. Our study contributes to a growing understanding of the origin and population structure of tree peonies and provides insights into the high level of plant endemism present in the Qinling–Daba Mountains of Central China.     

Influence of late Quaternary climate change on present patterns of genetic variation in valley oak,Quercus lobata Née

Phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs) suggest that late Quaternary glacial cycles have played a prominent role in shaping present population genetic structure and diversity, but have not applied quantitative methods to dissect the relative contribution of past and present climate vs. other forces. We integrate multilocus phylogeography, climate‐based ENMs and multivariate statistical approaches to infer the effects of late Quaternary climate change on contemporary genetic variation of valley oak (Quercus lobata Née). ENMs indicated that valley oak maintained a stable distribution with local migration from the last interglacial period (~120 ka) to the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka, LGM) to the present compared with large‐scale range shifts for an eastern North American white oak (Quercus alba L.). Coast Range and Sierra Nevada foothill populations diverged in the late Pleistocene before the LGM [104 ka (28–1622)] and have occupied somewhat distinct climate niches, according to ENMs and coalescent analyses of divergence time. In accordance with neutral expectations for stable populations, nuclear microsatellite diversity positively correlated with niche stability from the LGM to present. Most strikingly, nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite variation significantly correlated with LGM climate, even after controlling for associations with geographic location and present climate using partial redundancy analyses. Variance partitioning showed that LGM climate uniquely explains a similar proportion of genetic variance as present climate (16% vs. 11–18%), and together, past and present climate explains more than geography (19%). Climate can influence local expansion–contraction dynamics, flowering phenology and thus gene flow, and/or impose selective pressures. These results highlight the lingering effect of past climate on genetic variation in species with stable distributions.     

Genetic and paleomodelling evidence of the population expansion of the cattle egret Bubulcus ibis in Africa during the climatic oscillations of the Late Pleistocene

Increasing aridity during glacial periods produced the retraction of forests and the expansion of arid and semi‐arid environments in Africa, with consequences for birds. Cattle egret Bubulcus ibis is a dispersive species that prefers semi‐arid environments and requires proximity to bodies of water. We expected that climatic oscillations led to the expansion of the range of the cattle egret during arid periods, such as the Last Maximum Glacial (LGM) and contraction of distribution during the Last Interglacial (LIG) period, resulting in contact of populations previously isolated. We investigated this hypothesis by evaluating the genetic structure and population history of 15 cattle egret breeding colonies located in west and South Africa using the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region, mtDNA ATPase 8 and 6, and an intron of nuclear gene transforming growth factor‐beta 2. Occurrence data and bioclimatic information were used to generate ecological niche models of three periods (present, LGM and LIG). We used the genetic and paleomodelling data to assess the responses of the cattle egret from Africa to the climatic oscillations during the late Pleistocene. Genetic data revealed low levels of genetic differentiation, signs of isolation‐by‐distance, as well as recent increases in effective population size that started during the LGM. The observed low genetic structure may be explained by recent colonization events due to the demographic expansion following the last glacial period and by dispersal capacity of this species. The paleomodels corroborated the expansion during the LGM, and a more restricted potential distribution during the LIG. Our findinds supports the hypothesis that the species range of the cattle egret expanded during arid periods and contracted during wet periods.     

Bioclimatic evaluation of geographical range in Fragaria (Rosaceae): consequences of variation in breeding system,ploidy and species age

The evaluation of the intrinsic and extrinsic forces that determine geographical range sizes and niche breadth is key to the understanding of species distributions and for informing the conservation of biodiversity. Fragaria (Rosaceae) contains the economically important cultivated strawberry (Fragaria × ananassa subsp. ananassa) and numerous wild species. Using georeferenced species records and global bioclimatic data, we describe the bioclimatic niches for 21 Fragaria spp. and investigate the relationship between their niches and geographical range size, breeding system, ploidy and time since divergence. We found no evidence of phylogenetic signal for bioclimatic niches. There was also no relationship between ploidy and geographical or bioclimatic range area, but geographical range area was significantly greater for species that were capable of self‐fertilization. In addition, we found a significant decelerating relationship between species age and geographical range area. Overall, our results suggest that Fragaria spp., although similar in morphology and life history, show high levels of divergence in bioclimatic niches and significant over‐dispersion along some bioclimatic gradients, suggesting evolutionary lability in physiology and climate tolerance. As a consequence, wild species will remain a valuable resource for cultivated strawberry sustainability, especially under changing future climate. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176 , 99–114.