Wildfire refugia in forests: Severe fire weather and drought mute the influence of topography and fuel age

Wildfire refugia (unburnt patches within large wildfires) are important for the persistence of fire‐sensitive species across forested landscapes globally. A key challenge is to identify the factors that determine the distribution of fire refugia across space and time. In particular, determining the relative influence of climatic and landscape factors is important in order to understand likely changes in the distribution of wildfire refugia under future climates. Here, we examine the relative effect of weather (i.e. fire weather, drought severity) and landscape features (i.e. topography, fuel age, vegetation type) on the occurrence of fire refugia across 26 large wildfires in south‐eastern Australia. Fire weather and drought severity were the primary drivers of the occurrence of fire refugia, moderating the effect of landscape attributes. Unburnt patches rarely occurred under ‘severe’ fire weather, irrespective of drought severity, topography, fuels or vegetation community. The influence of drought severity and landscape factors played out most strongly under ‘moderate’ fire weather. In mesic forests, fire refugia were linked to variables that affect fuel moisture, whereby the occurrence of unburnt patches decreased with increasing drought conditions and were associated with more mesic topographic locations (i.e. gullies, pole‐facing aspects) and vegetation communities (i.e. closed‐forest). In dry forest, the occurrence of refugia was responsive to fuel age, being associated with recently burnt areas (<5 years since fire). Overall, these results show that increased severity of fire weather and increased drought conditions, both predicted under future climate scenarios, are likely to lead to a reduction of wildfire refugia across forests of southern Australia. Protection of topographic areas able to provide long‐term fire refugia will be an important step towards maintaining the ecological integrity of forests under future climate change.     

Fire frequency and biodiversity conservation in Australian tropical savannas: implications from the Kapalga fire experiment

Abstract Every year large proportions of northern Australia's tropical savanna landscapes are burnt, resulting in high fire frequencies and short intervals between fires. The dominant fire management paradigm in these regions is the use of low‐intensity prescribed fire early in the dry season, to reduce the incidence of higher‐intensity, more extensive wildfire later in the year. This use of frequent prescribed fire to mitigate against high‐intensity wildfire has parallels with fire management in temperate forests of southern Australia. However, unlike in southern Australia, the ecological implications of high fire frequency have received little attention in the north. CSIRO and collaborators recently completed a landscape‐scale fire experiment at Kapalga in Kakadu National Park, Northern Territory, Australia, and here we provide a synthesis of the effects of experimental fire regimes on biodiversity, with particular consideration of fire frequency and, more specifically, time‐since‐fire. Two recurring themes emerged from Kapalga. First, much of the savanna biota is remarkably resilient to fire, even of high intensity. Over the 5‐year experimental period, the abundance of most invertebrate groups remained unaffected by fire treatment, as did the abundance of most vertebrate species, and we were unable to detect any effect of fire on floristic composition of the grass‐layer. Riparian vegetation and associated stream biota, as well as small mammals, were notable exceptions to this general resilience. Second, the occurrence of fire, independent of its intensity, was often the major factor influencing fire‐sensitive species. This was especially the case for extinction‐prone small mammals, which have suffered serious population declines across northern Australia in recent decades. Results from Kapalga indicate that key components of the savanna biota of northern Australia favour habitat that has remained unburnt for at least several years. This raises a serious conservation concern, given that very little relatively long unburnt habitat currently occurs in conservation reserves, with most sites being burnt at least once every 2 years. We propose a conservation objective of increasing the area that remains relatively long unburnt. This could be achieved either by reducing the proportion of the landscape burnt each year, or by setting prescribed fires more strategically. The provision of appropriately long unburnt habitat is a conservation challenge for Australia's tropical savanna landscapes, just as it is for its temperate forests.     

Conservation value of low fire frequency in tropical savannas: Ants in monsoonal northern Australia

The conservation values of ‘old‐growth’ forests in landscapes subject to repeated disturbance by fire or logging have received considerable conservation attention. However, little is known of the conservation values of old‐growth sites in ecosystems with an evolutionary history of highly frequent disturbance. Here we address the value of low fire frequency (<1 fire/10 years) in tropical savannas, the world's most fire‐prone biome, in terms of ant biodiversity. We do this by comparing savanna ant communities within the Territory Wildlife Park (TWP) near Darwin in the Australian monsoonal tropics, which has experienced a low incidence of fire over 25 years due to active fire exclusion, with those of adjacent (outside) sites experiencing the ambient fire regime of burning every 2–5 years. Ants were sampled using terrestrial and arboreal pitfall traps at 16 sites, eight each inside and outside TWP. More than 16 000 ants were recorded during the study, representing a total of 98 ant species from 30 genera. More species in total were recorded outside (90) than inside (74) TWP, but there was no difference in mean site species richness or abundance, and overall species composition was similar. All species recorded inside TWP are common and widespread throughout the savanna landscapes of the broader region, in the absence of active fire exclusion. Low fire frequency at the Territory Wildlife Park therefore does not appear to have enhanced regional ant conservation values. Our findings reinforce the importance of targeting fire regimes that are clearly linked to positive conservation outcomes, rather than assuming a need for maximum ‘pyrodiversity’.     

The role of seedling age and size in the recovery of Allosyncarpia ternata following fire

Abstract This paper examines the effects of seedling size and age on fire tolerance of Allosyncarpia ternata (Myrtaceae), a dominant tree in patches of monsoon rainforest of the wet-dry tropics in the Northern Territory, Australia. We address the following questions: how large does a seedling have to be to tolerate fire; how old does it have to be to reach this fire-tolerant size; and how can land-management authorities best manage fire regimes to maintain Allosyncarpia forest? In a field experiment, shadehouse-grown seedlings aged from 8 months to 5 years were subjected to low- and high-intensity fires in September 1994. Among 5-year-old seedlings, mortality was independent of fire intensity. However, mortality of young (8-month-old) seedlings was significantly higher in the high-intensity fire. Three-year-old seedlings behaved in an intermediate manner; their survivorship and growth were marginally favoured by low-intensity fire, rather than high-intensity fire or no fire at all, and were dependent on pre-treatment seedling height. Thus, the critical age that distinguishes fire-tolerant from fire-sensitive seedlings is somewhat more than 3 years for relatively short seedlings and somewhat less than 3 years for taller seedlings. In August 1993, a wildfire penetrated several hundred metres into Allosyncarpia forest growing on a steep, rocky escarpment, where it caused severe damage to A. ternata seedlings. More than three-quarters of the ≥ 3.5-year-old seedlings (including some that had suffered the total loss of above-ground parts) recovered during the following wet season and showed higher growth rates than their unburned neighbours. New growth was also promoted in those tall seedlings and saplings that had sustained only partial leaf scorch. In contrast, all 18-month-old seedlings were killed by the fire. Measurements of leaf-scorch height in burned Allosyncarpia forest on the escarpment indicated a general uphill decrease in fire intensity, matching trends in increasing site rockiness and decreasing fuel density. An important implication for land management is that a fire-free interval of at least 3 years following a seed-fall event is required for a new generation of A. ternata germinants to progress into the cohort of established seedlings.     

Fire research for conservation management in tropical savannas: Introducing the Kapalga fire experiment

Abstract Fire is a dominant feature of tropical savannas throughout the world, and provides a unique opportunity for habitat management at the landscape scale. We provide the background and methodology for a landscape-scale savanna fire experiment at Kapalga, located in Kakadu National Park in the seasonal tropics of northern Australia. The experiment addresses the limitations of previous savanna fire experiments, including inappropriately small sizes of experimental units, lack of replication, consideration of a narrow range of ecological responses and an absence of detailed measurement of fire behaviour. In contrast to those elsewhere in the world, Australia's savannas are sparsely populated and largely uncleared, with fires lit primarily in a conservation, rather than pastoral, context. Fire management has played an integral role in the traditional lifestyles of Aboriginal people, who have occupied the land for perhaps 50 000 years or more. Currently the dominant fire management paradigm is one of extensive prescribed burning early in the dry season (May-June), in order to limit the extent and severity of fires occurring later in the year. The ecological effects of different fire regimes are hotly debated, but we identify geo-chemical cycling, tree demography, faunal diversity and composition, phenology, and the relative importance of fire intensity, timing and frequency, as critical issues. Experimental units (‘compartments’) at Kapalga are 15–20km² catchments, centred on seasonal creeks that drain into major rivers. Each compartment has been burnt according to one of four treatments, each replicated at least three times: ‘Early’- fires lit early in the dry season, which is the predominant management regime in the region; ‘Late’- fires lit late in the dry season, as occurs extensively in the region as unmanaged ‘wildfires’; ‘Progressive’- fires lit progressively throughout the dry season, such that different parts of the landscape are burnt as they progressively dry out (believed to approximate traditional Aboriginal burning practices); and ‘Unburnt’- no fires lit, and wildfires excluded. All burning treatments have been applied annually for 5 years, from 1990 to 1994. Six core projects have been conducted within the experimental framework, focusing on nutrients and atmospheric chemistry, temporary streams, vegetation, insects, small mammals, and vertebrate predators. Detailed measurements of fire intensity have been taken to help interpret ecological responses. The Kapalga fire experiment is multidisciplinary, treatments have been applied at a landscape scale with replication, and ecological responses can be related directly to measurements of fire intensity. We are confident that this experiment will yield important insights into the fire ecology of tropical savannas, and will make a valuable contribution to their conservation management.     

Productivity and carbon fluxes of tropical savannas

Aim (1) To estimate the local and global magnitude of carbon fluxes between savanna and the atmosphere, and to suggest the significance of savannas in the global carbon cycle. (2) To suggest the extent to which protection of savannas could contribute to a global carbon sequestration initiative. Location Tropical savanna ecosystems in Africa, Australia, India and South America. Methods A literature search was carried out using the ISI Web of Knowledge, and a compilation of extra data was obtained from other literature, including national reports accessed through the personal collections of the authors. Savanna is here defined as any tropical ecosystem containing grasses, including woodland and grassland types. From these data it was possible to estimate the fluxes of carbon dioxide between the entire savanna biome on a global scale. Results Tropical savannas can be remarkably productive, with a net primary productivity that ranges from 1 to 12 t C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. The lower values are found in the arid and semi‐arid savannas occurring in extensive regions of Africa, Australia and South America. The global average of the cases reviewed here was 7.2 t C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. The carbon sequestration rate (net ecosystem productivity) may average 0.14 t C ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ or 0.39 Gt C year⁻¹. If savannas were to be protected from fire and grazing, most of them would accumulate substantial carbon and the sink would be larger. Savannas are under anthropogenic pressure, but this has been much less publicized than deforestation in the rain forest biome. The rate of loss is not well established, but may exceed 1% per year, approximately twice as fast as that of rain forests. Globally, this is likely to constitute a flux to the atmosphere that is at least as large as that arising from deforestation of the rain forest. Main conclusions The current rate of loss impacts appreciably on the global carbon balance. There is considerable scope for using many of the savannas as sites for carbon sequestration, by simply protecting them from burning and grazing, and permitting them to increase in stature and carbon content over periods of several decades.     

Assessing the effects of fire on vegetation in tropical savannas

Because of its high frequency and generally low intensity, fire in tropical savannas appears to be a different phenomenon from that in other biomes. A recent study of fire in savanna at Munmarlary in northern Australia, analysed by detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) concluded that different fire regimens resulted in negligible changes in the vegetation, a conclusion crucial for fire management in the region. Here, we describe the short-term impact of an unusually intense fire in an area of tropical open forest. Tree and shrub mortality of 14.3% was recorded within 6 months of the fire, and the composition of the vegetation was changed because of differences between species in mortality rates, which ranged from 4 to 90%. Analyses of variance (ANOVA) of DCA co-ordinates were unable to detect any change, however. DCA seems inappropriate for analysing vegetation changes after savanna fires, because the floristic changes, compared with those in temperate fire-prone ecosystems, are subtle and multidirectional. Further, it is shown that rather large plot sizes (2–4 ha) are likely to be required to detect fire treatment differences even as great as about 20% of the mean, given the variability of savanna vegetation, and replicates that are likely to be limited in number. A possible solution is to measure the change over time in permanent plots, rather than attempting to detect treatment differences by sampling on a single occasion.     

The importance of low atmospheric CO2 and fire in promoting the spread of grasslands and savannas

The distribution and abundance of trees can be strongly affected by disturbance such as fire. In mixed tree/grass ecosystems, recurrent grass‐fuelled fires can strongly suppress tree saplings and therefore control tree dominance. We propose that changes in atmospheric [CO₂] could influence tree cover in such metastable ecosystems by altering their postburn recovery rates relative to flammable herbaceous growth forms such as grasses. Slow sapling recovery rates at low [CO₂] would favour the spread of grasses and a reduction of tree cover. To test the possible importance of [CO₂]/fire interactions, we first used a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) to simulate biomass in grassy ecosystems in South Africa with and without fire. The results indicate that fire has a major effect under higher rainfall conditions suggesting an important role for fire/[CO₂] interactions. We then used a demographic model of the effects of fire on mesic savanna trees to test the importance of grass/tree differences in postburn recovery rates. We adjusted grass and tree growth in the model according to the DGVM output of net primary production at different [CO₂] relative to current conditions. The simulations predicted elimination of trees at [CO₂] typical of the last glacial period (180 ppm) because tree growth rate is too slow (15 years) to grow to a fire‐proof size of ca. 3 m. Simulated grass growth would produce an adequate fuel load for a burn in only 2 years. Simulations of preindustrial [CO₂] (270 ppm) predict occurrence of trees but at low densities. The greatest increase in trees occurs from preindustrial to current [CO₂] (360 ppm). The simulations are consistent with palaeo‐records which indicate that trees disappeared from sites that are currently savannas in South Africa in the last glacial. Savanna trees reappeared in the Holocene. There has also been a large increase in trees over the last 50–100 years. We suggest that slow tree recovery after fire, rather than differential photosynthetic efficiencies in C₃ and C₄ plants, might have been the significant factor in the Late Tertiary spread of flammable grasslands under low [CO₂] because open, high light environments would have been a prerequisite for the spread of C₄ grasses. Our simulations suggest further that low [CO₂] could have been a significant factor in the reduction of trees during glacial times, because of their slower regrowth after disturbance, with fire favouring the spread of grasses.     

Mapping fire severity and fire extent in forest in Victoria for ecological and fuel outcomes

This study shows how high‐resolution (~15 cm) simultaneous colour and infra‐red digital aerial photography can be used to map both fire severity and, particularly, fire extent, in forest in south‐eastern Australia. The results show that this methodology is capable of detecting and mapping burnt and unburnt edges under unaffected forest canopy (i.e. still green) – that is, revealing the mosaic of burnt and unburnt areas that often result from planned landscape burning under mild weather conditions (i.e. with little of the brownish canopy scorch that results from more intense bushfires). This has important implications for both fuel management and ecology. It can answer the basic questions of fire and biodiversity managers following planned burning –’how much of the planned area burnt, and, within the burnt area, what aspects were burnt, and how hot did they burn?’ The analysis of fire extent by aspect showed that about 80% of southern and eastern aspects remained unburnt during broadscale autumn prescribed burning, with many of these moister aspects potentially providing longer unburnt refuges over multiple burn rotations. The fire severity and extent mapping products, produced using the methodology outlined in this study, have the potential to substantially increase the understanding of the ecological and fuel outcomes of landscape‐scale autumn prescribed burning.     

Climatic change and fire potential in South-Central British Columbia, Canada

The incidence and severity of forest fires are linked to the interaction between climate, fuel and topography. Increased warming and drying in the future is expected to have a significant impact on the risk of forest fire occurrence. An increase in fire risk is linked to the synchronous relationship between climate and fuel moisture conditions. A warmer, drier climate will lead to drier forest fuels that will in turn increase the chance of successful fire ignition and propagation. This interaction will increase the severity of fire weather, which, in turn, will increase the risk of extreme fire behaviour. A warmer climate will also extend fire season length, which will increase the likelihood of fires occurring over a greater proportion of the year. In this study of the North Okanagan area of British Columbia, Canada, the impacts of climate change of fire potential were evaluated using the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System and multiple climate scenario analysis. Utilizing this approach, a 30% increase in fire season length was modelled to occur by 2070. In addition, statistically significant increases in fire severity and fire behaviour were also modelled. Fire weather severity was predicted to increase by 95% during the summer months by 2070 while fire behaviour was predicted to shift from surface fire‐intermittent crown fire regimes to a predominantly intermittent‐full crown fire regime by 2070 onwards. An increase in fire season length, fire weather severity and fire behaviour will increase the costs of fire suppression and the risk of property and resource loss while limiting human‐use within vulnerable forest landscapes. An increase in fire weather severity and fire behaviour over a greater proportion of the season will increase the risks faced by ecosystems and biodiversity to climatic change and increase the costs and difficulty of achieving sustainable forest management.     

Herbaceous vegetation responses to experimental fire in savannas and forests depend on biome and climate

Fire–vegetation feedbacks potentially maintain global savanna and forest distributions. Accordingly, vegetation in savanna and forest ecosystems should have differential responses to fire, but fire response data for herbaceous vegetation have yet to be synthesized across biomes. Here, we examined herbaceous vegetation responses to experimental fire at 30 sites spanning four continents. Across a variety of metrics, herbaceous vegetation increased in abundance where fire was applied, with larger responses to fire in wetter and in cooler and/or less seasonal systems. Compared to forests, savannas were associated with a 4.8 (±0.4) times larger difference in herbaceous vegetation abundance for burned versus unburned plots. In particular, grass cover decreased with fire exclusion in savannas, largely via decreases in C₄ grass cover, whereas changes in fire frequency had a relatively weak effect on grass cover in forests. These differential responses underscore the importance of fire for maintaining the vegetation structure of savannas and forests.     

Resilience and restoration of tropical and subtropical grasslands,savannas, and grassy woodlands

Despite growing recognition of the conservation values of grassy biomes, our understanding of how to maintain and restore biodiverse tropical grasslands (including savannas and open‐canopy grassy woodlands) remains limited. To incorporate grasslands into large‐scale restoration efforts, we synthesised existing ecological knowledge of tropical grassland resilience and approaches to plant community restoration. Tropical grassland plant communities are resilient to, and often dependent on, the endogenous disturbances with which they evolved – frequent fires and native megafaunal herbivory. In stark contrast, tropical grasslands are extremely vulnerable to human‐caused exogenous disturbances, particularly those that alter soils and destroy belowground biomass (e.g. tillage agriculture, surface mining); tropical grassland restoration after severe soil disturbances is expensive and rarely achieves management targets. Where grasslands have been degraded by altered disturbance regimes (e.g. fire exclusion), exotic plant invasions, or afforestation, restoration efforts can recreate vegetation structure (i.e. historical tree density and herbaceous ground cover), but species‐diverse plant communities, including endemic species, are slow to recover. Complicating plant‐community restoration efforts, many tropical grassland species, particularly those that invest in underground storage organs, are difficult to propagate and re‐establish. To guide restoration decisions, we draw on the old‐growth grassland concept, the novel ecosystem concept, and theory regarding tree cover along resource gradients in savannas to propose a conceptual framework that classifies tropical grasslands into three broad ecosystem states. These states are: (1) old‐growth grasslands (i.e. ancient, biodiverse grassy ecosystems), where management should focus on the maintenance of disturbance regimes; (2) hybrid grasslands, where restoration should emphasise a return towards the old‐growth state; and (3) novel ecosystems, where the magnitude of environmental change (i.e. a shift to an alternative ecosystem state) or the socioecological context preclude a return to historical conditions.     

Unsupported inferences of high‐severity fire in historical dry forests of the western United States: response to Williams and Baker

Reconstructions of dry western US forests in the late 19th century in Arizona, Colorado and Oregon based on General Land Office records were used by Williams & Baker (2012; Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21 , 1042–1052; hereafter W&B) to infer past fire regimes with substantial moderate and high‐severity burning. The authors concluded that present‐day large, high‐severity fires are not distinguishable from historical patterns. We present evidence of important errors in their study. First, the use of tree size distributions to reconstruct past fire severity and extent is not supported by empirical age–size relationships nor by studies that directly quantified disturbance history in these forests. Second, the fire severity classification of W&B is qualitatively different from most modern classification schemes, and is based on different types of data, leading to an inappropriate comparison. Third, we note that while W&B asserted ‘surprising’ heterogeneity in their reconstructions of stand density and species composition, their data are not substantially different from many previous studies which reached very different conclusions about subsequent forest and fire behaviour changes. Contrary to the conclusions of W&B, the preponderance of scientific evidence indicates that conservation of dry forest ecosystems in the western United States and their ecological, social and economic value is not consistent with a present‐day disturbance regime of large, high‐severity fires, especially under changing climate.     

Testing the grass-fire cycle: alien grass invasion in the tropical savannas of northern Australia

Abstract. Invasive alien grasses can increase fuel loads, leading to changes in fire regimes of invaded ecosystems by increasing the frequency, intensity and spatial extent of fires. Andropogon gayanus Kunth. (Gamba grass), a tall perennial grass from Africa, is invading ecosystems in the Top End of northern Australia. To determine whether A. gayanus alters savanna fire regimes, we compared fuel loads and fire intensities at invaded sites with those from native grass savannas. Savanna invaded by A. gayanus had fuel loads up to seven times higher than those dominated by native grasses. This higher fuel load supported a fire that was on average eight times more intense than those recorded in native grass savannas at the same time of year (means 15700 ± 6200 and 2100 ± 290 kW m⁻¹, respectively), and was the highest early dry season fire intensities ever recorded in the Northern Territory. These results suggest that A. gayanus is a serious threat to northern Australia's savannas, with the potential to alter vegetation structure and initiate a grass-fire cycle.     

Arthropod responses to experimental fire regimes in an Australian tropical savannah: ordinal‐level analysis

Fire is widely used for conservation management in the savannah landscapes of northern Australia, yet there is considerable uncertainty over the ecological effects of different fire regimes. The responses of insects and other arthropods to fire are especially poorly known, despite their dominant roles in the functioning of savannah ecosystems. Fire often appears to have little long‐term effect on ordinal‐level abundance of arthropods in temperate woodlands and open forests of southern Australia, and this paper addresses the extent to which such ordinal‐level resilience also occurs in Australia’s tropical savannahs. The data are from a multidisciplinary, landscape‐scale fire experiment at Kapalga in Kakadu National Park. Arthropods were sampled in the two major savannah habitats (woodland and open forest) using pitfall traps and sweep nets, in 15–20 km² compartments subjected to one of three fire regimes, each with three replicates: ‘early’ (annual fires lit early in the dry season), ‘late’ (annual fires lit late in the dry season), and ‘unburnt’ (fires absent during the five‐year experimental period 1990–94). Floristic cover, richness and composition were also measured in each sampling plot, using point quadrats. There were substantial habitat differences in floristic composition, but fire had no measured effect on plant richness, overall composition, or cover of three of the four dominant species. Of the 11 ordinal arthropod taxa considered from pitfall traps, only four were significantly affected by fire according to repeated‐measures ANOVA . There was a marked reduction in ant abundance in the absence of fire, and declines in spiders, homopterans and silverfish under late fires. Similarly, the abundances of only four of the 10 ordinal taxa from sweep catches were affected by fire, with crickets and beetles declining in the absence of fire, and caterpillars declining under late fires. Therefore, most of the ordinal taxa from the ground and grass‐layer were unaffected by the fire treatments, despite the treatments representing the most extreme fire regimes possible in the region. This indicates that the considerable ordinal‐level resilience to fire of arthropod assemblages that has previously been demonstrated in temperate woodlands and open forests of southern Australia, also occurs in tropical savannah woodlands and open forests of northern Australia.     

Pyrogeographic models,feedbacks and the future of global fire regimes

Conceptual and phenomenological macroecological models of current global fire activity have demonstrated the overwhelming control exerted by primary productivity. Fire activity is very high in savanna regions with intermediate primary productivity, and very low in both densely forested regions with high productivity and arid/cold regions with low productivity. However, predicting future global fire activity using such macroecological models of fire's global ‘niche’ may not be possible because of the feedbacks between fire, climate and vegetation that underpin the fire?productivity relationship. Improving forecasts of global fire activity demands the use of dynamic models to determine how climate, CO₂, vegetation (i.e. canopy closure and plant functional types) and primary productivity constrain fire and evaluation of the strength of feedbacks amongst these variables.     

Prioritizing forest fuels treatments based on the probability of high‐severity fire restores adaptive capacity in Sierran forests

In frequent fire forests of the western United States, a legacy of fire suppression coupled with increases in fire weather severity have altered fire regimes and vegetation dynamics. When coupled with projected climate change, these conditions have the potential to lead to vegetation type change and altered carbon (C) dynamics. In the Sierra Nevada, fuels reduction approaches that include mechanical thinning followed by regular prescribed fire are one approach to restore the ability of the ecosystem to tolerate episodic fire and still sequester C. Yet, the spatial extent of the area requiring treatment makes widespread treatment implementation unlikely. We sought to determine if a priori knowledge of where uncharacteristic wildfire is most probable could be used to optimize the placement of fuels treatments in a Sierra Nevada watershed. We developed two treatment placement strategies: the naive strategy, based on treating all operationally available area and the optimized strategy, which only treated areas where crown‐killing fires were most probable. We ran forecast simulations using projected climate data through 2,100 to determine how the treatments differed in terms of C sequestration, fire severity, and C emissions relative to a no‐management scenario. We found that in both the short (20 years) and long (100 years) term, both management scenarios increased C stability, reduced burn severity, and consequently emitted less C as a result of wildfires than no‐management. Across all metrics, both scenarios performed the same, but the optimized treatment required significantly less C removal (naive=0.42 Tg C, optimized=0.25 Tg C) to achieve the same treatment efficacy. Given the extent of western forests in need of fire restoration, efficiently allocating treatments is a critical task if we are going to restore adaptive capacity in frequent‐fire forests.