Mechanisms of thermal adaptation and evolutionary potential of conspecific populations to changing environments

Heterogeneous and ever‐changing thermal environments drive the evolution of populations and species, especially when extreme conditions increase selection pressure for traits influencing fitness. However, projections of biological diversity under scenarios of climate change rarely consider evolutionary adaptive potential of natural species. In this study, we tested for mechanistic evidence of evolutionary thermal adaptation among ecologically divergent redband trout populations (Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri) in cardiorespiratory function, cellular response and genomic variation. In a common garden environment, fish from an extreme desert climate had significantly higher critical thermal maximum (p < .05) and broader optimum thermal window for aerobic scope (>3°C) than fish from cooler montane climate. In addition, the desert population had the highest maximum heart rate during warming (20% greater than montane populations), indicating improved capacity to deliver oxygen to internal tissues. In response to acute heat stress, distinct sets of cardiac genes were induced among ecotypes, which helps to explain the differences in cardiorespiratory function. Candidate genomic markers and genes underlying these physiological adaptations were also pinpointed, such as genes involved in stress response and metabolic activity (hsp40, ldh‐b and camkk2). These markers were developed into a multivariate model that not only accurately predicted critical thermal maxima, but also evolutionary limit of thermal adaptation in these specific redband trout populations relative to the expected limit for the species. This study demonstrates mechanisms and limitations of an aquatic species to evolve under changing environments that can be incorporated into advanced models to predict ecological consequences of climate change for natural organisms.     

Climate change reduces offspring fitness in littoral spawners: a study integrating organismic response and long‐term time‐series

Integrating long‐term ecological observations with experimental findings on species response and tolerance to environmental stress supports an understanding of climate effects on population dynamics. Here, we combine the two approaches, laboratory experiments and analysis of multi‐decadal time‐series, to understand the consequences of climate anomalies and ongoing change for the population dynamics of a eurythermal littoral species, Carcinus aestuarii. For the generation of cause and effect hypotheses we investigated the thermal response of crab embryos at four developmental stages. We first measured metabolic rate variations in embryos following acute warming (16–24 °C) and after incubation at 20 and 24 °C for limited periods. All experiments consistently revealed differential thermal responses depending on the developmental stage. Temperature‐induced changes in metabolic activity of early embryonic stages of blastula and gastrula suggested the onset of abnormal development. In contrast, later developmental stages, characterized by tissue and organ differentiation, were marginally affected by temperature anomalies, indicating enhanced resilience to thermal stress. Then, we extended these findings to a larger, population scale, by analyzing a time‐series of C. aestuarii landings in the Venice lagoon from 1945 to 2010 (ripe crabs were recorded separately) in relation to temperature. Landings and extreme climatic events showed marked long‐term and short‐term variations. We found negative relationships between landings and thermal stress indices on both timescales, with time lags consistent with an impact on crab early life stages. When quantitatively evaluating the influence of thermal stress on population dynamics, we found that it has a comparable effect to that of the biomass of spawners. This work provides strong evidence that physiological responses to climatic anomalies translate into population‐level changes and that apparently tolerant species may be impacted before the ontogeny of eurythermy. These ontogenetic bottlenecks markedly shape population dynamics and require study to assess the effects of global change.     

Unfamiliar partnerships limit cnidarian holobiont acclimation to warming

Enhancing the resilience of corals to rising temperatures is now a matter of urgency, leading to growing efforts to explore the use of heat tolerant symbiont species to improve their thermal resilience. The notion that adaptive traits can be retained by transferring the symbionts alone, however, challenges the holobiont concept, a fundamental paradigm in coral research. Holobiont traits are products of a specific community (holobiont) and all its co‐evolutionary and local adaptations, which might limit the retention or transference of holobiont traits by exchanging only one partner. Here we evaluate how interchanging partners affect the short‐ and long‐term performance of holobionts under heat stress using clonal lineages of the cnidarian model system Aiptasia (host and Symbiodiniaceae strains) originating from distinct thermal environments. Our results show that holobionts from more thermally variable environments have higher plasticity to heat stress, but this resilience could not be transferred to other host genotypes through the exchange of symbionts. Importantly, our findings highlight the role of the host in determining holobiont productivity in response to thermal stress and indicate that local adaptations of holobionts will likely limit the efficacy of interchanging unfamiliar compartments to enhance thermal tolerance.     

Is adaptation to climate change really constrained in niche specialists?

Species with restricted distributions make up the vast majority of biodiversity. Recent evidence suggests that Drosophila species with restricted tropical distributions lack genetic variation in the key trait of desiccation resistance. It has therefore been predicted that tropically restricted species will be limited in their evolutionary response to future climatic changes and will face higher risks of extinction. However, these assessments have been made using extreme levels of desiccation stress (less than 10% relative humidity (RH)) that extend well beyond the changes projected for the wet tropics under climate change scenarios over the next 30 years. Here, we show that significant evolutionary responses to less extreme (35% RH) but more ecologically realistic levels of climatic change and desiccation stress are in fact possible in two species of rainforest restricted Drosophila. Evolution may indeed be an important means by which sensitive rainforest-restricted species are able to mitigate the effects of climate change.     

Sensitivity of three grassland communities to simulated extreme temperature and rainfall events

Three grassland communities in New Zealand with differing climates and proportions of C3 and C4 species were subjected to one‐off extreme heating (eight hours at 52.5°C) and rainfall (the equivalent of 100 mm) events. A novel experimental technique using portable computer‐controlled chambers simulated the extreme heating events. The productive, moist C3/C4 community was the most sensitive to the extreme events in terms of short‐term community composition compared with a dry C3/C4 community or an exclusively C3 community. An extreme heating event caused the greatest change to plant community species abundance by favouring the expansion of C4 species relative to C3 species, shifting C4 species abundance from 43% up to 84% at the productive, moist site. This was observed both in the presence and absence of added water. In the absence of C4 species, heating reduced community productivity by over 60%. The short‐term shifts in the abundance of C3 and C4 species in response to the single extreme climatic events did not have persistent effects on community structure or on soil nitrogen one year later. There was no consistent relationship between diversity and stability of biomass production of these plant communities, and species functional identity was the most effective explanation for the observed shifts in biomass production. The presence of C4 species resulted in an increased stability of productivity after extreme climatic events, but resulted in greater overall shifts in community composition. The presence of C4 species may buffer grassland community productivity against an increased frequency of extreme heating events associated with future global climate change.     

Modelling species responses to extreme weather provides new insights into constraints on range and likely climate change impacts for Australian mammals

Conservation of species under climate change relies on accurate predictions of species ranges under current and future climate conditions. To date, modelling studies have focused primarily on how changes in long‐term averaged climate conditions are likely to influence species distributions with much less attention paid to the potential effect of extreme events such as droughts and heatwaves which are expected to increase in frequency over coming decades. In this study we explore the benefits of tailoring predictor variables to the specific physiological constraints of species, or groups of species. We show how utilizing spatial predictors of extreme temperature and water availability (heat‐waves and droughts), derived from high‐temporal resolution, long‐term weather records, provides categorically different predictions about the future (2070) distribution of suitable environments for 188 mammal species across different biomes (from arid zones to tropical environments) covering the whole of continental Australia. Models based on long‐term averages‐only and extreme conditions‐only showed similarly high predictive performance tested by hold‐out cross‐validation on current data, and yet some predicted dramatically different future geographic ranges for the same species under 2070 climate scenarios. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for extreme conditions/events by identifying areas in the landscape where species may cope with average conditions, but cannot persist under extreme conditions known or predicted to occur there. Our approach provides an important step toward identifying the location of climate change refuges and danger zones that goes beyond the current standard of extrapolating long‐term climate averages.     

Resilience in reef‐building corals: The ecological and evolutionary importance of the host response to thermal stress

Coral reefs are under extreme threat due to a number of stressors, but temperature increases due to changing climate are the most severe. Rising ocean temperatures coupled with local extremes lead to extensive bleaching, where the coral‐algal symbiosis breaks down and corals may die, compromising the structure and function of reefs. Although the symbiotic nature of the coral colony has historically been a focus of research on coral resilience, the host itself is a foundational component in the response to thermal stress. Fixed effects in the coral host set trait baselines through evolutionary processes, acting on many loci of small effect to create mosaics of thermal tolerance across latitudes and individual coral reefs. These genomic differences can be strongly heritable, producing wide variation among clones of different genotypes or families of a specific larval cross. Phenotypic plasticity is overlaid on these baselines and a growing body of knowledge demonstrates the potential for acclimatization of reef‐building corals through a variety of mechanisms that promote resilience and stress tolerance. The long‐term persistence of coral reefs will require many of these mechanisms to adjust to warmer temperatures within a generation, bridging the gap to reproductive events that allow recombination of standing diversity and adaptive change. Business‐as‐usual climate scenarios will probably lead to the loss of some coral populations or species in the future, so the interaction between intragenerational effects and evolutionary pressure is critical for the survival of reefs.     

Seasonal variation in basal and plastic cold tolerance: Adaptation is influenced by both long‐ and short‐term phenotypic plasticity

Understanding how thermal selection affects phenotypic distributions across different time scales will allow us to predict the effect of climate change on the fitness of ectotherms. We tested how seasonal temperature variation affects basal levels of cold tolerance and two types of phenotypic plasticity in Drosophila melanogaster. Developmental acclimation occurs as developmental stages of an organism are exposed to seasonal changes in temperature and its effect is irreversible, while reversible short‐term acclimation occurs daily in response to diurnal changes in temperature. We collected wild flies from a temperate population across seasons and measured two cold tolerance metrics (chill‐coma recovery and cold stress survival) and their responses to developmental and short‐term acclimation. Chill‐coma recovery responded to seasonal shifts in temperature, and phenotypic plasticity following both short‐term and developmental acclimation improved cold tolerance. This improvement indicated that both types of plasticity are adaptive, and that plasticity can compensate for genetic variation in basal cold tolerance during warmer parts of the season when flies tend to be less cold tolerant. We also observed a significantly stronger trade‐off between basal cold tolerance and short‐term acclimation during warmer months. For the longer‐term developmental acclimation, a trade‐off persisted regardless of season. A relationship between the two types of plasticity may provide additional insight into why some measures of thermal tolerance are more sensitive to seasonal variation than others.     

What factors shape female phenotypes of a poleward‐moving damselfly at the edge of its range?

Individuals at the expansion front during a climate‐driven range expansion are expected to differ phenotypically from those individuals in core populations. Little information is known about the joint, potentially opposing, effects of stressful conditions at the range edge versus evolutionary changes that take place during range expansion in shaping the phenotypes at the range front. We investigated the effect of range expansion on immune function, body condition and flight‐related morphology (flight muscle ratio, wing loading, and wing aspect ratio) of field‐collected females of the poleward‐moving damselfly Coenagrion scitulum. Individuals at the expansion front had a lower body condition, which indicated more stressful conditions at the range edge. Despite the counteracting effect of the shorter growth season, the higher flight muscle ratios at the expansion front indicated a strong selection for dispersal ability during range expansion. The current study suggests that models need to incorporate the interplay of stressful conditions and evolutionary processes at the expansion front to arrive at robust predictions of future species distributions under global warming. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 112 , 556–568.     

Using a historic drought and high‐heat event to validate thermal exposure predictions for ground‐dwelling birds

Deviations from typical environmental conditions can provide insight into how organisms may respond to future weather extremes predicted by climate modeling. During an episodic and multimonth heat wave event (i.e., ambient temperature up to 43.4°C), we studied the thermal ecology of a ground‐dwelling bird species in Western Oklahoma, USA. Specifically, we measured black bulb temperature (T_bb) and vegetation parameters at northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; hereafter bobwhite) adult and brood locations as well as at stratified random points in the study area. On the hottest days (i.e., ≥39°C), adults and broods obtained thermal refuge using tall woody cover that remained on average up to 16.51°C cooler than random sites on the landscape which reached >57°C. We also found that refuge sites used by bobwhites moderated thermal conditions by more than twofold compared to stratified random sites on the landscape but that T_bb commonly exceeded thermal stress thresholds for bobwhites (39°C) for several hours of the day within thermal refuges. The serendipitous high heat conditions captured in our study represent extreme heat for our study region as well as thermal stress for our study species, and subsequently allowed us to assess ground‐dwelling bird responses to temperatures that are predicted to become more common in the future. Our findings confirm the critical importance of tall woody cover for moderating temperatures and functioning as important islands of thermal refuge for ground‐dwelling birds, especially during extreme heat. However, the potential for extreme heat loads within thermal refuges that we observed (albeit much less extreme than the landscape) indicates that the functionality of tall woody cover to mitigate heat extremes may be increasingly limited in the future, thereby reinforcing predictions that climate change represents a clear and present danger for these species.     

Mountain stoneflies may tolerate warming streams: Evidence from organismal physiology and gene expression

Rapid glacier recession is altering the physical conditions of headwater streams. Stream temperatures are predicted to rise and become increasingly variable, putting entire meltwater‐associated biological communities at risk of extinction. Thus, there is a pressing need to understand how thermal stress affects mountain stream insects, particularly where glaciers are likely to vanish on contemporary timescales. In this study, we measured the critical thermal maximum (CT_MAX) of stonefly nymphs representing multiple species and a range of thermal regimes in the high Rocky Mountains, USA. We then collected RNA‐sequencing data to assess how organismal thermal stress translated to the cellular level. Our focal species included the meltwater stonefly, Lednia tumana, which was recently listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate‐induced habitat loss. For all study species, critical thermal maxima (CT_MAX > 20°C) far exceeded the stream temperatures mountain stoneflies experience (<10°C). Moreover, while evidence for a cellular stress response was present, we also observed constitutive expression of genes encoding proteins known to underlie thermal stress (i.e., heat shock proteins) even at low temperatures that reflected natural conditions. We show that high‐elevation aquatic insects may not be physiologically threatened by short‐term exposure to warm temperatures and that longer‐term physiological responses or biotic factors (e.g., competition) may better explain their extreme distributions.     

Differential proteomic response to heat stress in thermal Agrostis scabra and heat‐sensitive Agrostis stolonifera

Knowledge of heat‐responsive proteins is critical for further understanding of the molecular mechanisms of heat tolerance. The objective of this study was to compare proteins differentially expressed in two C₃ grass species contrasting in heat tolerance, heat‐tolerant thermal Agrostis scabra and heat‐sensitive Agrostis stolonifera L., and to identify heat‐responsive proteins for short‐ and long‐term responses. Plants were exposed to 20/15°C (day/night, control) or 40/35°C (day/night, heat stress) in growth chambers. Leaves were harvested at 2 and 10 days after temperature treatment. Proteins were extracted and separated by fluorescence difference gel electrophoresis (DIGE). Thermal A. scabra had superior heat tolerance than A. stolonifera, as indicated by the maintenance of higher chlorophyll content and photochemical efficiency under heat stress. The two‐dimensional difference electrophoresis detected 68 heat‐responsive proteins in the two species. Thermal A. scabra had more protein spots either down‐ or up‐regulated at 2 days of heat stress, but fewer protein spots were altered at 10 days of heat stress compared with A. stolonifera. Many protein spots exhibited transient down‐regulation in thermal A. scabra (only at 2 days of heat treatment), whereas down‐regulation of many proteins was also found at 10 days of heat treatment in A. stolonifera, which suggested that protein metabolism in thermal A. scabra might acclimate to heat stress more rapidly than those in A. stolonifera. The sequences of 56 differentially expressed protein spots were identified using mass spectrometry. The results suggest that the maintenance or less severe down‐regulation of proteins during long‐term (10 days) heat stress may contribute to the superior heat tolerance in thermal A. scabra, including those involved in photosynthesis [RuBisCo, RuBisCo activase, chloroplastic glyceraldehydes‐3‐phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH), chloroplastic aldolase, oxygen‐evolving complex, photosystem I subunits], dark respiration (cytosolic GAPDH, cytoplasmic aldolase, malate dehydrogenase, hydroxypyruvate reductase, sedoheptulose‐1,7‐bisphosphatase), photorespiration [(hydroxypyruvate reductase, alanine aminotransferase (AlaAT), hydroxymethyltransferase (SHMT), glycine decarboxylase (GDC)], as well as heat and oxidative stress protection [heat shock cognate (HSC) 70 and FtsH‐like protein].     

Thermal tolerance in the keystone species Daphnia magna—a candidate gene and an outlier analysis approach

Changes in temperature have occurred throughout Earth's history. However, current warming trends exacerbated by human activities impose severe and rapid loss of biodiversity. Although understanding the mechanisms orchestrating organismal response to climate change is important, remarkably few studies document their role in nature. This is because only few systems enable the combined analysis of genetic and plastic responses to environmental change over long time spans. Here, we characterize genetic and plastic responses to temperature increase in the aquatic keystone grazer Daphnia magna combining a candidate gene and an outlier analysis approach. We capitalize on the short generation time of our species, facilitating experimental evolution, and the production of dormant eggs enabling the analysis of long‐term response to environmental change through a resurrection ecology approach. We quantify plasticity in the expression of 35 candidate genes in D. magna populations resurrected from a lake that experienced changes in average temperature over the past century and from experimental populations differing in thermal tolerance isolated from a selection experiment. By measuring expression in multiple genotypes from each of these populations in control and heat treatments, we assess plastic responses to extreme temperature events. By measuring evolutionary changes in gene expression between warm‐ and cold‐adapted populations, we assess evolutionary response to temperature changes. Evolutionary response to temperature increase is also assessed via an outlier analysis using EST‐linked microsatellite loci. This study provides the first insights into the role of plasticity and genetic adaptation in orchestrating adaptive responses to environmental change in D. magna.     

Life‐history traits buffer against heat wave effects on predator–prey dynamics in zooplankton

In addition to an increase in mean temperature, extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, which are likely to affect organism interactions, seasonal succession, and resting stage recruitment patterns in terrestrial as well as in aquatic ecosystems. For example, freshwater zooplankton with different life‐history strategies, such as sexual or parthenogenetic reproduction, may respond differently to increased mean temperatures and rapid temperature fluctuations. Therefore, we conducted a long‐term (18 months) mesocosm experiment where we evaluated the effects of increased mean temperature (4°C) and an identical energy input but delivered through temperature fluctuations, i.e., as heat waves. We show that different rotifer prey species have specific temperature requirements and use limited and species‐specific temperature windows for recruiting from the sediment. On the contrary, co‐occurring predatory cyclopoid copepods recruit from adult or subadult resting stages and are therefore able to respond to short‐term temperature fluctuations. Hence, these different life‐history strategies affect the interactions between cyclopoid copepods and rotifers by reducing the risk of a temporal mismatch in predator–prey dynamics in a climate change scenario. Thus, we conclude that predatory cyclopoid copepods with long generation time are likely to benefit from heat waves since they rapidly “wake up” even at short temperature elevations and thereby suppress fast reproducing prey populations, such as rotifers. In a broader perspective, our findings suggest that differences in life‐history traits will affect predator–prey interactions, and thereby alter community dynamics, in a future climate change scenario.     

Coral reef resilience to thermal stress in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Coral reefs worldwide are threatened by thermal stress caused by climate change. Especially devastating periods of coral loss frequently occur during El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events originating in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). El Niño‐induced thermal stress is considered the primary threat to ETP coral reefs. An increase in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events predicted in the coming decades threatens a pan‐tropical collapse of coral reefs. During the 1982–1983 El Niño, most reefs in the Galapagos Islands collapsed, and many more in the region were decimated by massive coral bleaching and mortality. However, after repeated thermal stress disturbances, such as those caused by the 1997–1998 El Niño, ETP corals reefs have demonstrated regional persistence and resiliency. Using a 44 year dataset (1970–2014) of live coral cover from the ETP, we assess whether ETP reefs exhibit the same decline as seen globally for other reefs. Also, we compare the ETP live coral cover rate of change with data from the maximum Degree Heating Weeks experienced by these reefs to assess the role of thermal stress on coral reef survival. We find that during the period 1970–2014, ETP coral cover exhibited temporary reductions following major ENSO events, but no overall decline. Further, we find that ETP reef recovery patterns allow coral to persist under these El Niño‐stressed conditions, often recovering from these events in 10–15 years. Accumulative heat stress explains 31% of the overall annual rate of change of living coral cover in the ETP. This suggests that ETP coral reefs have adapted to thermal extremes to date, and may have the ability to adapt to near‐term future climate‐change thermal anomalies. These findings for ETP reef resilience may provide general insights for the future of coral reef survival and recovery elsewhere under intensifying El Niño scenarios.     

Evolution of skull and body shape in Triturus newts reconstructed from three‐dimensional morphometric data and phylogeny

To explore the relationship between morphological change and species diversification, we reconstructed the evolutionary changes in skull size, skull shape, and body elongation in a monophyletic group of eight species that make up salamander genus Triturus. Their well‐studied phylogenetic relationships and the marked difference in ecological preferences among five species groups makes this genus an excellent model system for the study of morphological evolution. The study involved three‐dimensional imagery of the skull and the number of trunk vertebrae, in material that represents the morphological, spatial, and molecular diversity of the genus. Morphological change largely followed the pattern of descent. The reconstruction of ancestral skull shape indicated that morphological change was mostly confined to two episodes, corresponding to the ancestral lineage that all crested newts have in common and the Triturus dobrogicus lineage. When corrected for common descent, evolution of skull shape was correlated to change in skull size. Also, skull size and shape, as well as body shape, as inferred from the number of trunk vertebrae, were correlated, indicating a marked impact of species' ecological preferences on morphological evolution, accompanied by a series of niche shifts, with the most pronounced one in the T. dobrogicus lineage. The presence of phylogenetic signal and correlated evolutionary changes in skull and body shape suggested complex interplay of niche shifts, natural selection, and constraints by a common developmental system. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 113 , 243–255.     

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among‐population demographic responses to climatic variation

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long‐term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long‐term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species‐interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.     

A Drosophila laboratory evolution experiment points to low evolutionary potential under increased temperatures likely to be experienced in the future

The ability to respond evolutionarily to increasing temperatures is important for survival of ectotherms in a changing climate. Recent studies suggest that upper thermal limits may be evolutionary constrained. We address this hypothesis in a laboratory evolution experiment, encompassing ecologically relevant thermal regimes. To examine the potential for species to respond to climate change, we exposed replicate populations of Drosophila melanogaster to increasing temperatures (0.3 °C every generation) for 20 generations, whereas corresponding replicate control populations were held at benign thermal conditions throughout the experiment. We hypothesized that replicate populations exposed to increasing temperatures would show increased resistance to warm and dry environments compared with replicate control populations. Contrasting replicate populations held at the two thermal regimes showed (i) an increase in desiccation resistance and a decline in heat knock‐down resistance in replicate populations exposed to increasing temperatures, (ii) similar egg‐to‐adult viability and fecundity in replicate populations from the two thermal regimes, when assessed at high stressful temperatures and (iii) no difference in nucleotide diversity between thermal regimes. The limited scope for adaptive evolutionary responses shown in this study highlights the challenges faced by ectotherms under climate change.     

Predicting evolutionary responses to climate change in the sea

An increasing number of short‐term experimental studies show significant effects of projected ocean warming and ocean acidification on the performance on marine organisms. Yet, it remains unclear if we can reliably predict the impact of climate change on marine populations and ecosystems, because we lack sufficient understanding of the capacity for marine organisms to adapt to rapid climate change. In this review, we emphasise why an evolutionary perspective is crucial to understanding climate change impacts in the sea and examine the approaches that may be useful for addressing this challenge. We first consider what the geological record and present‐day analogues of future climate conditions can tell us about the potential for adaptation to climate change. We also examine evidence that phenotypic plasticity may assist marine species to persist in a rapidly changing climate. We then outline the various experimental approaches that can be used to estimate evolutionary potential, focusing on molecular tools, quantitative genetics, and experimental evolution, and we describe the benefits of combining different approaches to gain a deeper understanding of evolutionary potential. Our goal is to provide a platform for future research addressing the evolutionary potential for marine organisms to cope with climate change.