Which temporal resolution to consider when investigating the impact of climatic data on population dynamics? The case of the lesser horseshoe bat (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Rhinolophus hipposideros</Emphasis>)

Climatic variables are often considered when studying environmental impacts on population dynamics of terrestrial species. However, the temporal resolution considered varies depending on studies, even among studies of the same taxa. Most studies interested in climatic impacts on populations tend to average climatic data across timeframes covering life cycle periods of the organism in question or longer, even though most climatic databases provide at least a monthly resolution. We explored the impact of climatic variables on lesser horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus hipposideros) demography based on count data collected at 94 maternity colonies from 2000 to 2014 in Britanny, France. Meteorological data were considered using different time resolutions (month, life cycle period and year) to investigate their adequacy. Model averaging was used to detect significant predictors for each temporal resolution. Our results show that the finest temporal resolution, e.g. month, was more informative than coarser ones. Precipitation predictors were particularly decisive, with a negative impact on colony sizes when rainfall occurred in October, and a positive impact for June precipitations. Fecundity was influenced by April weather. This highlights the strong impact of climatic conditions during crucial but short time periods on the population dynamics of bats. We demonstrate the importance of choosing an appropriate time resolution and suggest that analogous studies should consider fine-scale temporal resolution (e.g. month) to better grasp the relationship between population dynamics and climatic conditions.     

The Moran effect revisited: spatial population synchrony under global warming

The world is spatially autocorrelated. Both abiotic and biotic properties are more similar among neighboring than distant locations, and their temporal co-fluctuations also decrease with distance. P. A. P. Moran realized the ecological importance of such ‘spatial synchrony’ when he predicted that isolated populations subject to identical log-linear density-dependent processes should have the same correlation in fluctuations of abundance as the correlation in environmental noise. The contribution from correlated weather to synchrony of populations has later been coined the ‘Moran effect’. Here, we investigate the potential role of the Moran effect in large-scale ecological outcomes of global warming. Although difficult to disentangle from dispersal and species interaction effects, there is compelling evidence from across taxa and ecosystems that spatial environmental synchrony causes population synchrony. Given this, and the accelerating number of studies reporting climate change effects on local population dynamics, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the implications of global warming for spatial population synchrony. However, a handful of studies of insects, birds, plants, mammals and marine plankton indicate decadal-scale changes in population synchrony due to trends in environmental synchrony. We combine a literature review with modeling to outline potential pathways for how global warming, through changes in the mean, variability and spatial autocorrelation of weather, can impact population synchrony over time. This is particularly likely under a ‘generalized Moran effect’, i.e. when relaxing Moran's strict assumption of identical log-linear density-dependence, which is highly unrealistic in the wild. Furthermore, climate change can influence spatial population synchrony indirectly, through its effects on dispersal and species interactions. Because changes in population synchrony may cascade through food-webs, we argue that the (generalized) Moran effect is key to understanding and predicting impacts of global warming on large-scale ecological dynamics, with implications for extinctions, conservation and management.     

Influence of weather factors on population dynamics of two lagomorph species based on hunting bag records

Weather conditions can have a significant influence on short-term fluctuations of animal populations. In our study, which is based on time series of hunting bag records of up to 28?years from 26 counties of The Netherlands and Germany, we investigated the impact of different weather variables on annual counts of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and European hares (Lepus europaeus). Overall, the long-term dynamics of both species could be described by higher-order polynomials. On a smaller time scale, the number of European hares shot was lower in years with higher amounts of precipitation during late summer/autumn, and the number of European rabbits shot was lower in years with high precipitation in spring of the respective year. We suggest that rainy weather conditions might have lowered the survival of young rabbits in spring and might have generally facilitated the outbreak or spread of diseases in rabbits as well as in hares, specifically in autumn. In addition, the results showed a time-delayed, interactive effect between precipitation in spring and winter weather on European rabbit dynamics: rabbit numbers were limited by low temperatures of the prior winter season, but only when precipitation was high during spring of the previous year. The latter result might be explained by the lowering effects of rainy spring weather on the body condition of the animals, leading to higher sensitivity to harsh winter conditions. In conclusion, our study provides evidence for the impact of weather conditions on the population dynamics of both study species and particularly highlights complex interactions between the prevailing weather conditions during different seasons in the European rabbit.     

Drivers of hybridization in a 66-generation record of Colias butterflies

Hybridization significantly affects the ecology and evolution of numerous plant and animal lineages. Most studies have focused on endogenous drivers of hybridization and neglected variation in exogenous factors, such as seasonal weather patterns. In this study, we take advantage of a unique dataset consisting of records of hybridization between the butterflies Colias eurytheme and C. eriphyle (Pieridae) for 66 generations (22 years) to investigate the importance of seasonal weather on the production and survival of hybrid offspring. Important seasonal weather variables for each parental species and hybrid offspring were determined using model averaging, and these weather variables, along with butterfly abundances, were analyzed using path analysis. The most important drivers of hybridization were the abundance of C. eriphyle, summer minimum temperature, and spring maximum temperature. In contrast, the abundance of C. eurytheme and weather variables prior to the current flight season were relatively unimportant for variation in hybrid abundance. Parental abundances were mostly driven by weather variables prior to the flight season possibly because these variables affect host plant quality. Our results suggest that exogenous, climatic factors can influence hybridization in natural systems, and that these factors can act both directly on hybrid abundance and indirectly through the population dynamics of parental species.     

Coping with fast climate change in northern ecosystems: mechanisms underlying the population‐level response of a specialist avian predator

Northern ecosystems are facing unprecedented climate modifications, which pose a major threat for arctic species, especially the specialist predator guild. However, the mechanisms underlying responses of predators to climate change remain poorly understood. Climate can influence fitness parameters of predators either through reduced reproduction or survival following adverse weather conditions, or via changes in the population dynamics of their main prey. Here, we combined three overlapping long‐term datasets on the breeding density and parameters of a rodent‐specialist predator, the rough‐legged buzzard Buteo lagopus, its main prey population dynamics and climate variables, collected in subarctic areas of Finland and Norway, to assess the impact of changing climate on the predator reproductive response. Rough‐legged buzzards responded to ongoing climate change by advancing their laying date (0.1 d yr^?1 over the 21 yr of the study period), as a consequence of earlier snowmelt. However, we documented for the same period a decrease in breeding success, which principally resulted from an indirect effect of changes in the dynamics of their main prey, i.e. grey‐sided voles Microtus oeconomus, and not from the expected negative effect of unfavorable weather conditions during the brood‐rearing period on nestling survival. Additionally, we showed the striking impact of autumn and winter weather conditions on vole population growth rates in subarctic ecosystems, with a strong positive correlation between mean snow depth in autumn and winter and both winter and summer population growth rates. Our results highlighted that, in northern ecosystems, ongoing climate change has the potential to impact specialist predator species through two mechanistic linkages, which may in the long‐run, threaten the viability of their populations, and lead to potential severe cascading trophic effects at the ecosystem level.     

Weather and landscape factors associated with adult mosquito abundance in southwestern Georgia, U.S.A

Mosquito community composition and population dynamics were compared to weather variables and land use/cover data during 2008 to determine which variables affected population dynamics at the J.W. Jones Ecological Research Center in southwestern Georgia. Models relating adult mosquito distributions to weather variables and time of year were compared using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) model selection. Precipitation, temperature, humidity, and Keetch-Byram Drought Index were important factors correlated with mosquito abundance or presence/absence for the species considered. A cluster analysis, which grouped eight sites based on the percentages of land use/cover and hydric soils located in a 1-km radius surrounding collection sites, and an indicator species analysis were used to investigate the associations among 11 mosquito species and sites with similar land use/cover. Aedes albopictus (Skuse), Culex coronator Dyar & Knab, Culex quinquefasciatus Say, and Culex salinarius Coquillett were associated with sites that had the most anthropogenic influence, while Coquillettidia perturbans (Walker) and Psorophora ferox (von Humboldt) were associated with natural land cover such as wetlands and forested land. This study demonstrates that regional climate and land use/cover data can be predictive of the population dynamics of certain mosquito populations and is the first to examine how the distribution of Cx. coronator adults relate to land use/cover in the southeastern United States.     

Spatial (a)synchrony in population fluctuations of five plant species in fragmented habitats

The spatial scale at which populations show synchronous temporal fluctuations in abundance, relative to the spatial scale over which they can disperse, may influence the persistence of local and regional populations. There have been frequent demonstrations of spatial synchrony in population dynamics of animal populations. But few studies have investigated the degree of spatial synchrony in less mobile taxa, e.g. plants, where life history, dispersal and interaction with the environment would be different due to a sessile phase. This study has during three years investigated the synchrony in local population size changes in four short-lived species, and during a nine-year period for one long-lived species, in a semi-natural grassland landscape in southern Sweden. The spatial scale of this study was less than 15 km, which is quite small in comparison with other studies, but the temporal scale was of similar magnitude as the few studies on plant abundances and synchrony. When using detrended estimates of population size change, a significant pattern of decreasing synchrony with increasing distance was found for the two short-lived species that were most confined to manage semi-natural grasslands. Spatial synchrony was detected up to a few km. However, the species displayed synchrony in different years. The degree of synchrony can thus vary considerably across years and among species. Spatially autocorrelated weather conditions could partly explain the spatial scale of synchrony found during certain time intervals. However, the prevailing asynchrony suggests that local factors dominate the dynamics of the populations at the investigated scale.     

Integrating floral scent, pollination ecology and population genetics

1 . Floral scent is a key factor in the attraction of pollinators. Despite this, the role of floral scent in angiosperm speciation and evolution remains poorly understood. Modern population genetic approaches when combined with pollination ecology can open new opportunities for studying the evolutionary role of floral scent.
2 . A framework of six hypotheses for the application of population genetic tools to questions about the evolutionary role of floral scent is presented. When floral volatile chemistry is linked to pollinator attraction we can analyse questions such as: Does floral volatile composition reflect plant species boundaries? Can floral scent facilitate or suppress hybridization between taxa? Can the attraction of different pollinators influence plant mating systems and pollen-mediated gene flow? How is population genetic structure indirectly influenced by floral scent variation?
3 . The application of molecular tools in sexually deceptive orchids has confirmed that volatile composition reflects species boundaries, revealed the role of shared floral odour in enabling hybridization, confirmed that the sexual attraction mediated by floral odour has implications for pollen flow and population genetic structure and provided examples of pollinator-mediated selection on floral scent variation. Interdisciplinary studies to explore links between floral volatile variation, ecology and population genetics are rare in other plant groups.
4 . Ideal study systems for future floral scent research that incorporate population genetics will include closely related taxa that are morphologically similar, sympatric and co-flowering as well as groups that display wide variation in pollination mechanisms and floral volatiles.     

Population dynamics of cereal aphids: influence of a shared predator and weather

1 Aphid populations may show strong year-to-year fluctuations, but questions remain regarding the dominance of factors that cause this variation, especially the role of natural enemies. To better understand the dynamics of aphid species that occur as pests in cereals, we investigated the relative influence of top-down control by a predator and weather (temperature and precipitation) on population fluctuations of three cereal aphid species.
2 From 1987 to 2005, populations of Metopolophium dirhodum , Sitobion avenae and Rhopalosiphum padi in insecticide-free stands of winter wheat were monitored in the Praha-Ruzyné region of the Czech Republic. Densities of an aphidophagous predator, the ladybeetle Coccinella septempunctata , were recorded from an overwintering site in the landscape. Weather was quantified using historical records.
3 A significant bottom-up effect of densities of aphids on those of C.   septempunctata was found, but evidence of direct top-down regulation of aphids by C.   septempunctata was only significant in the case of R.   padi . There was no significant periodicity in the dynamics of the aphid or C.   septempunctata , suggesting that there was no clear predator-prey cycle. Combinations of C.   septempunctata and weather variables could be used to explain M.   dirhodum and R.   padi per capita rate of change. There were also indications that weather directly affected peak density of M.   dirhodum .
4 We conclude that regional estimates of C.   septempunctata densities are not sufficient to determine whether aphid population dynamics are driven by predator–prey interactions. Feasibility of time series analysis as an investigative tool in aphid population dynamics studies is discussed.     

Demographic responses to weather fluctuations are context dependent in a long‐lived amphibian

Weather fluctuations have been demonstrated to affect demographic traits in many species. In long‐lived organisms, their impact on adult survival might be buffered by the evolution of traits that reduce variation in interannual adult survival. For example, skipping breeding is an effective behavioral mechanism that may limit yearly variation in adult survival when harsh weather conditions occur; however, this in turn would likely lead to strong variation in recruitment. Yet, only a few studies to date have examined the impact of weather variation on survival, recruitment and breeding probability simultaneously in different populations of the same species. To fill this gap, we studied the impact of spring temperatures and spring rainfall on survival, on reproductive skipping behavior and on recruitment in five populations of a long‐lived amphibian, the yellow‐bellied toad (Bombina variegata). Based on capture–recapture data, our findings demonstrate that survival depends on interactions between age, population and weather variation. Varying weather conditions in the spring result in strong variation in the survival of immature toads, whereas they have little effect on adult toads. Breeding probability depends on both the individual's previous reproductive status and on the weather conditions during the current breeding season, leading to high interannual variation in recruitment. Crucially, we found that the impact of weather variation on demographic traits is largely context dependent and may thus differ sharply between populations. Our results suggest that studies predicting the impact of climate change on population dynamics should be taken with caution when the relationship between climate and demographic traits is established using only one population or few populations. We therefore highly recommend further research that includes surveys replicated in a substantial number of populations to account for context‐dependent variation in demographic processes.     

Influences of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on avian productivity in forests of the Pacific Northwest of North America

To model the effects of global climate phenomena on avian population dynamics, we must identify and quantify the spatial and temporal relationships between climate, weather and bird populations. Previous studies show that in Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences winter and spring weather that in turn affects resident and migratory landbird species. Similarly, in North America, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) of the Pacific Ocean reportedly drives weather patterns that affect prey availability and population dynamics of landbird species which winter in the Caribbean. Here we show that ENSO‐ and NAO‐induced seasonal weather conditions differentially affect neotropical‐ and temperate‐wintering landbird species that breed in Pacific North‐west forests of North America. For neotropical species wintering in western Mexico, El Niño conditions correlate with cooler, wetter conditions prior to spring migration, and with high reproductive success the following summer. For temperate wintering species, springtime NAO indices correlate strongly with levels of forest defoliation by the larvae of two moth species and also with annual reproductive success, especially among species known to prey upon those larvae. Generalized linear models incorporating NAO indices and ENSO precipitation indices explain 50–90% of the annual variation in productivity reported for 10 landbird species. These results represent an important step towards spatially explicit modelling of avian population dynamics at regional scales.     

Climate versus weather extremes: Temporal predictor resolution matters for future rather than current regional species distribution models

Aim

Climate is considered a major driver of species distributions. Long‐term climatic means are commonly used as predictors in correlative species distribution models (SDMs). However, this coarse temporal resolution does not reflect local conditions that populations experience, such as short‐term weather extremes, which may have a strong impact on population dynamics and local distributions. We here compare the performance of climate‐ and weather‐based predictors in regional SDMs and their influence on future predictions, which are increasingly used in conservation planning.

Location

South‐western Germany.

Methods

We built different SDMs for 20 Orthoptera species based on three predictor sets at a regional scale for current and future climate scenarios. We calculated standard bioclimatic variables and yearly and seasonal sets of climate change indicating variables of weather extremes. As the impact of extreme events may be stronger for habitat specialists than for generalists, we distinguished species’ degrees of specialization. We computed linear mixed‐effects models to identify significant effects of algorithm, predictor set and specialization on model performance and calculated correlations and geographical niche overlap between spatial predictions.

Results

Current predictions were rather similar among all predictor sets, but highly variable for future climate scenarios. Bioclimatic and seasonal weather predictors performed slightly better than yearly weather predictors, though performance differences were minor. We found no evidence that specialists are more sensitive to weather extremes than generalists.

Main conclusions

For future projections of species distributions, SDM predictor selection should not solely be based on current performances and predictions. As long‐term climate and short‐term weather predictors represent different environmental drivers of a species’ distribution, we argue to interpret diverging future projections as complements. Even if similar current performances and predictions might imply their equivalency, favouring one predictor set neglects important aspects of future distributions and might mislead conservation decisions based on them.

     

European butterfly populations vary in sensitivity to weather across their geographical ranges

Aim

The aim was to assess the sensitivity of butterfly population dynamics to variation in weather conditions across their geographical ranges, relative to sensitivity to density dependence, and determine whether sensitivity is greater towards latitudinal range margins.

Location

Europe.

Time period

1980–2014.

Major taxa studied

Butterflies.

Methods

We use long‐term (35 years) butterfly monitoring data from > 900 sites, ranging from Finland to Spain, grouping sites into 2° latitudinal bands. For 12 univoltine butterfly species with sufficient data from at least four bands, we construct population growth rate models that include density dependence, temperature and precipitation during distinct life‐cycle periods, defined to accommodate regional variation in phenology. We use partial R² values as indicators of butterfly population dynamics' sensitivity to weather and density dependence, and assess how these vary with latitudinal position within a species' distribution.

Results

Population growth rates appear uniformly sensitive to density dependence across species' geographical distributions, and sensitivity to density dependence is typically greater than sensitivity to weather. Sensitivity to weather is greatest towards range edges, with symmetry in northern and southern parts of the range. This pattern is not driven by variation in the magnitude of weather variability across the range, topographic heterogeneity, latitudinal range extent or phylogeny. Significant weather variables in population growth rate models appear evenly distributed across the life cycle and across temperature and precipitation, with substantial intraspecific variation across the geographical ranges in the associations between population dynamics and specific weather variables.

Main conclusions

Range‐edge populations appear more sensitive to changes in weather than those nearer the centre of species' distributions, but density dependence does not exhibit this pattern. Precipitation is as important as temperature in driving butterfly population dynamics. Intraspecific variation in the form and strength of sensitivity to weather suggests that there may be important geographical variation in populations' responses to climate change.     

Natural enemies and environmental factors affecting the population dynamics of the gypsy moth

The population densities of the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar; Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) may reach outbreak levels that pose considerable economic and environmental impacts to forests in Europe, Asia, Africa and North America. Compared with the situation in its native European range feeding damage by gypsy moth is often found to be more severe in North America and other parts of the world. Thus, the release from natural enemies can be interpreted as an important cause for high feeding damages. Natural enemies, especially parasitoids, can cause delayed density‐dependent mortality, which may be responsible for population cycles. In North America where only few parasitoids have been introduced and the parasitism rates are considerably lower than in Europe, generalist predators play a larger role than in Europe. Many other factors seem to influence the population dynamics of the gypsy moth such as the host plants and weather. Nevertheless, much of the variability in population densities of the gypsy moth may be attributed to interacting effects of weather conditions and attack by natural enemies. In spite of the considerable number of studies on the ecology and population dynamics of the gypsy moth and the impact of their natural enemies, more quantitative information is required to predict the population dynamics of this pest species and to control its economic and ecologic impact.     

Relative importance of density-dependent regulation and environmental stochasticity for butterfly population dynamics

The relative contribution of density-dependent regulation and environmental stochasticity to the temporal dynamics of animal populations is one of the central issues of ecology. In insects, the primary role of the latter factor, typically represented by weather patterns, is widely accepted. We have evaluated the impact of density dependence as well as density-independent factors, including weather and mowing regime, on annual fluctuations of butterfly populations. As model species, we used Maculinea alcon and M. teleius living in sympatry and, consequently, we also analysed the effect of their potential competition. Density dependence alone explained 62 and 42% of the variation in the year-to-year trends of M. alcon and M. teleius, respectively. The cumulative Akaike weight of models with density dependence, which can be interpreted as the probability that this factor should be contained in the most appropriate population dynamics model, exceeded 0.97 for both species. In contrast, the impacts of inter-specific competition, mowing regime and weather were much weaker, with their cumulative weights being in the range of 0.08–0.21; in addition, each of these factors explained only 2–5% of additional variation in Maculinea population trends. Our results provide strong evidence for density-dependent regulation in Maculinea, while the influence of environmental stochasticity is rather minor. In the light of several recent studies on other butterflies that detected significant density-dependent effects, it would appear that density-dependent regulation may be more widespread in this group than previously thought, while the role of environmental stochasticity has probably been overestimated. We suggest that this misconception is the result of deficiencies in the design of most butterfly population studies in the past, including (1) a strong focus on adults and a neglect of the larval stage in which density-dependent effects are most likely to occur; (2) an almost exclusive reliance on transect count results that may confound the impact of environmental stochasticity on butterfly numbers with its impact on adult longevity. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Population synchrony within and among Lepidoptera species in relation to weather, phylogeny, and larval phenology

Abstract.  1. The population dynamics of native herbivore species in central Appalachian deciduous forests were studied by analysing patterns of synchrony among intra- and interspecific populations and weather.
2. Spatial synchrony of 10 Lepidoptera species and three weather variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation) from 12 sites was measured using cross-correlation functions relating levels of synchrony to the distance separating each set of populations. Based on both the pattern of synchrony and the region-wide cross-correlation coefficients, Lepidoptera species appear to be synchronised, at least in part, by local weather conditions.
3. Interspecific cross-correlations were calculated for all sympatric species pairs and trends in interspecific synchrony were related to phylogenetic relatedness, life-history timing, and weather. Interspecific synchrony was highest among species whose larvae were present during the same time of the season, but there was no relationship between interspecific synchrony and phylogenetic affinity.
4. Spatial synchrony of weather variables was significantly related to both species of some interspecific pairs, indicating weather as a potential mechanism involved in synchronising populations of different species.     

Large population sizes mitigate negative effects of variable weather conditions on fruit set in two spring woodland orchids

Global circulation models predict increased climatic variability, which could increase variability in demographic rates and affect long-term population viability. In animal-pollinated species, pollination services, and thus fruit and seed set, may be highly variable among years and sites, and depend on both local environmental conditions and climatic variables. Orchid species may be particularly vulnerable to disruption of their pollination services, as most species depend on pollinators for successful fruit set and because seed germination and seedling recruitment are to some extent dependent on the amount of fruits and seeds produced. Better insights into the factors determining fruit and seed set are therefore indispensable for a better understanding of population dynamics and viability of orchid populations under changing climatic conditions. However, very few studies have investigated spatio-temporal variation in fruit set in orchids. Here, we quantified fruit production in eight populations of the orchid Orchis purpurea that does not reward pollinators and 13 populations of the rewarding Neottia (Listera) ovata during five consecutive years (2002–2006). Fruit production in large populations showed much higher stability than that in small populations and was less affected by extreme weather conditions. Our results highlight the potential vulnerability of small orchid populations to an increasingly variable climate through highly unpredictable fruit-set patterns.     

Impacts of climate change on national biodiversity population trends

Climate change has had well‐documented impacts on the distribution and phenology of species across many taxa, but impacts on species’ abundance, which relates closely to extinction risk and ecosystem function, have not been assessed across taxa. In the most comprehensive multi‐taxa comparison to date, we modelled variation in national population indices of 501 mammal, bird, aphid, butterfly and moth species as a function of annual variation in weather variables, which through time allowed us to identify a component of species’ population growth that can be associated with post‐1970s climate trends. We found evidence that these climate trends have significantly affected population trends of 15.8% of species, including eight with extreme (> 30% decline per decade) negative trends consistent with detrimental impacts of climate change. The modelled effect of climate change could explain 48% of the significant across‐species population decline in moths and 63% of the population increase in winged aphids. The other taxa did not have significant across‐species population trends or consistent climate change responses. Population declines in species of conservation concern were linked to both climatic and non‐climatic factors respectively accounting for 42 and 58% of the decline. Evident differential impacts of climate change between trophic levels may signal the potential for future ecosystem disruption. Climate change has therefore already driven large‐scale population changes of some species, had significant impacts on the overall abundance of some key invertebrate groups and may already have altered biological communities and ecosystems in Great Britain.     

Intraseasonal predictability of natural phytoplankton population dynamics

It is difficult to make skillful predictions about the future dynamics of marine phytoplankton populations. Here, we use a 22‐year time series of monthly average abundances for 198 phytoplankton taxa from Station L4 in the Western English Channel (1992–2014) to test whether and how aggregating phytoplankton into multi‐species assemblages can improve predictability of their temporal dynamics. Using a non‐parametric framework to assess predictability, we demonstrate that the prediction skill is significantly affected by how species data are grouped into assemblages, the presence of noise, and stochastic behavior within species. Overall, we find that predictability one month into the future increases when species are aggregated together into assemblages with more species, compared with the predictability of individual taxa. However, predictability within dinoflagellates and larger phytoplankton (>12 μm cell radius) is low overall and does not increase by aggregating similar species together. High variability in the data, due to observational error (noise) or stochasticity in population growth rates, reduces the predictability of individual species more than the predictability of assemblages. These findings show that there is greater potential for univariate prediction of species assemblages or whole‐community metrics, such as total chlorophyll or biomass, than for the individual dynamics of phytoplankton species.     

Paternal levels of DNA damage in spermatozoa and maternal parity influence offspring mortality in an endangered ungulate

Understanding which factors influence offspring mortality rates is a major challenge since it influences population dynamics and may constrain the chances of recovery among endangered species. Most studies have focused on the effects of maternal and environmental factors, but little is known about paternal factors. Among most polygynous mammals, males only contribute the haploid genome to their offspring, but the possibility that sperm DNA integrity may influence offspring survival has not been explored. We examined several maternal, paternal and individual factors that may influence offspring survival in an endangered species (Gazella cuvieri). Levels of sperm DNA damage had the largest impact upon offspring mortality rates, followed by maternal parity. In addition, there was a significant interaction between these two variables, so that offspring born to primiparous mothers were more likely to die if their father had high levels of sperm DNA damage, but this was not the case among multiparous mothers. Thus, multiparous mothers seem to protect their offspring from the deleterious effects of sperm DNA damage. Since levels of sperm DNA damage seem to be higher among endangered species, more attention should be paid to the impact of this largely ignored factor among the viability of endangered species.