Toward a “Risk Index” to Assess Work Schedules

This article describes our preliminary attempt to develop a Risk Index to estimate the risk of human error on different work schedules based on trends in the relative risk of accidents and injuries, rather than on hypothetical intervening variables such as alertness, fatigue, or performance on interpolated tasks. We briefly review trends in risk from the published epidemiological studies that have ensured that the a priori risk was constant. A simple Risk Index based on an additive model is developed on the basis of these trends, and we illustrate how it may be used to assess work schedules. Finally, we compare the results from this Risk Index with those from the UK HSE's Fatigue Index and point out the discrepancies that emerge. We conclude that our risk-based modeling approach may assist in developing safer work schedules and also increase our understanding of this complex, multifaceted area.     

Updating the “Risk Index”: A systematic review and meta-analysis of occupational injuries and work schedule characteristics

Fatigue is a major risk factor for occupational ‘accidents’ and injuries, and involves dimensions of physical, mental, and muscular fatigue. These dimensions are largely influenced by temporal aspects of work schedules. The “Risk Index” combines four fatigue-related components of work schedules to estimate occupational ‘accident’ and injury risk based on empirical trends: shift type (morning, afternoon/evening, night), length and consecutive number, and on-shift rest breaks. Since its first introduction in 2004, several additional studies have been published that allow the opportunity to improve the internal and external validity of the “Risk Index”. Thus, we updated the model’s estimates by systematically reviewing the literature and synthesizing study results using meta-analysis. Cochrane Collaboration directives and MOOSE guidelines were followed. We conducted systematic literature searches on each model component in Medline. An inverse variance approach to meta-analysis was used to synthesize study effect sizes and estimate between-studies variance (‘heterogeneity’). Meta-regression models were conducted to explain the heterogeneity using several effect modifiers, including the sample age and sex ratio. Among 3,183 initially identified abstracts, after screening by two independent raters (95–98% agreement), 29 high-quality studies were included in the meta-analysis. The following trends were observed: Shift type. Compared to morning shifts, injury risk significantly increased on night shifts (RR = 1.36 [95%CI = 1.15–1.60], n = 14 studies), while risk was slightly elevated on afternoon/evening shifts, although non-significantly (RR = 1.12 [0.76–1.64], n = 9 studies). Meta-regressions revealed worker’s age as a significant effect modifier: adolescent workers (≤ 20 y) showed a decreased risk on the afternoon/evening shift compared to both morning shifts and adult workers (p < 0.05). Number of consecutive shifts. Compared to the first shift in a block of consecutive shifts, risk increased exponentially for morning shifts (e.g., 4th: RR = 1.09 [0.90–1.32]; n = 6 studies) and night shifts (e.g., 4th: RR = 1.36 [1.14–1.62]; n = 8 studies), while risk on afternoon/evening shifts appeared unsystematic. Shift length. Injury risk rose substantially beyond the 9th hour on duty, a trend that was mirrored when looking at shift lengths (e.g., >12 h: RR = 1.34 [1.04–1.51], n = 3 studies). Rest breaks. Risk decreased for any rest break duration (e.g., 31–60 min: RR = 0.35 [0.29–0.43], n = 2 studies). With regards to time between breaks, risk increased with every additional half hour spent on the work task compared to the first 30 min (e.g., 90–119 min: RR = 1.62 [1.00–2.62], n = 3 studies). Rest break duration and interval seem to interact such that with increasing duration, the time between breaks becomes irrelevant. The updated “Risk Index”. All four components were combined to form the updated model and the relative risk values estimated for a variety of work schedules. The resulting “Risk Map” shows regions of highest risk when rest breaks are not taken frequently enough (i.e. <4 h) or are too short (i.e. <30 min), when shift length exceeds 11 h, and when work takes place during the night (particularly for >3 consecutive night shifts). The “Risk Index” is proposed as an empirical model to predict occupational ‘accident’ and injury risk based on the most recent data in the field, and can serve as a tool to evaluate hazards and maximize safety across different work schedules.     

Development and Preliminary Validation of an Index for Indicating the Risks of the Design of Working Hours to Health and Wellbeing

BASS 4, a computer program for the design and evaluation of workings hours, is an example of an ergonomics‐based software tool that can be used by safety practitioners at the shop floor with regard to legal, ergonomic, and economic criteria. Based on experiences with this computer program, a less sophisticated Working‐Hours‐Risk Index for assessing the quality of work schedules (including flexible work hours) to indicate risks to health and wellbeing has been developed to provide a quick and easy applicable tool for legally required risk assessments. The results of a validation study show that this risk index seems to be a promising indicator for predicting risks of health complaints and wellbeing. The purpose of the Risk Index is to simplify the evaluation process at the shop floor and provide some more general information about the quality of a work schedule that can be used for triggering preventive interventions. Such a risk index complies with practitioners' expectations and requests for easy, useful, and valid instruments.     

Estimating the circadian rhythm in the risk of occupational injuries and accidents

The authors recently published a prototypic Risk Index (RI) to estimate the risk of critical errors associated with shift systems. This RI was based on published trends in the relative risk of injuries and accidents, and a simple additive model was proposed to estimate the risk for a given shift system. However, extending the RI to irregular work schedules requires an estimation of the phase and amplitude of the circadian rhythm in risk. This paper integrates the published evidence on three independent sources of data that allow such estimations to be made: the trend in risk over a 24 h day, over the course of the night shift, and across the three different (8 h) shifts. Despite potential confounders, maximum risk (i.e., acrophase=peak time) estimates across these three trends showed a remarkable consistency, with all three estimates occurring at about midnight, although the amplitude estimates varied considerably. The best estimate of the amplitude of the circadian rhythm in risk would appear to be that based on trend over the three (8 h) shifts, as this trend is the least confounded. The estimated acrophase (peak time) in risk appeared earlier than would be predicted from consideration of the circadian rhythm in alertness, fatigue, or performance on simple interpolated tasks, such as reaction time or performance on the Psychomotor Vigilance Test.     

Estimating the Circadian Rhythm in the Risk of Occupational Injuries and Accidents

The authors recently published a prototypic Risk Index (RI) to estimate the risk of critical errors associated with shift systems. This RI was based on published trends in the relative risk of injuries and accidents, and a simple additive model was proposed to estimate the risk for a given shift system. However, extending the RI to irregular work schedules requires an estimation of the phase and amplitude of the circadian rhythm in risk. This paper integrates the published evidence on three independent sources of data that allow such estimations to be made: the trend in risk over a 24 h day, over the course of the night shift, and across the three different (8 h) shifts. Despite potential confounders, maximum risk (i.e., acrophase=peak time) estimates across these three trends showed a remarkable consistency, with all three estimates occurring at about midnight, although the amplitude estimates varied considerably. The best estimate of the amplitude of the circadian rhythm in risk would appear to be that based on trend over the three (8 h) shifts, as this trend is the least confounded. The estimated acrophase (peak time) in risk appeared earlier than would be predicted from consideration of the circadian rhythm in alertness, fatigue, or performance on simple interpolated tasks, such as reaction time or performance on the Psychomotor Vigilance Test.     

Development and preliminary validation of an index for indicating the risks of the design of working hours to health and wellbeing

BASS 4, a computer program for the design and evaluation of workings hours, is an example of an ergonomics-based software tool that can be used by safety practitioners at the shop floor with regard to legal, ergonomic, and economic criteria. Based on experiences with this computer program, a less sophisticated Working-Hours-Risk Index for assessing the quality of work schedules (including flexible work hours) to indicate risks to health and wellbeing has been developed to provide a quick and easy applicable tool for legally required risk assessments. The results of a validation study show that this risk index seems to be a promising indicator for predicting risks of health complaints and wellbeing. The purpose of the Risk Index is to simplify the evaluation process at the shop floor and provide some more general information about the quality of a work schedule that can be used for triggering preventive interventions. Such a risk index complies with practitioners' expectations and requests for easy, useful, and valid instruments.     

Total nitrogen and pH-controlled chemical speciation,bioavailability and ecological risk from Cd,Cr, Cu,Pb and Zn in the water level-fluctuating zone sediments of the Three Gorges Reservoir

We investigated the distribution and chemical speciation of Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn in the water level-fluctuating (WLF) zone of the main stream (MS) and tributaries (ZX and MX) of the Three Gorges Reservoir. We evaluated the ecological risk and pollution level from heavy metals based on the Potential Ecological Risk Index (RI), Risk Assessment Code (RAC), and Ratio of Secondary Phase and Primary Phase (RSP). Our results indicated that the total and bio-available heavy metal contents were higher in the tributaries than in the MS. Moderate pollution from Cd and light pollution from Pb were observed both at the MS and ZX sites, whereas the MX site exhibited a pattern of heavy Cd pollution and light Cr and Pb pollution. In our study area, the results indicated that Cd exhibited a higher ecological risk than did the other heavy metals. Finally, the pH and nitrogen content of sediments may play a key role in controlling the amount of heavy metal bioavailability, further inducing a higher potential ecological risk.     

Healthy shiftwork, healthy shiftworks

Reflecting diversifying shift systems, extensive effort is put into managing shiftwork and reducing safety and health risks. It is accepted that shiftworkers are exposed to particular risks inherent in their irregular work schedules. This raises the question of how and to what extent we can ensure healthy work life for shiftworkers. In answering the question, we need to identify effective measures to improve both shiftworking conditions and the health of shiftworkers. Based on recent experiences in managing shiftwork, we note three directions of such measures: (a) comprehensive action to avoid risk-enhancing conditions based on general guidelines, (b) risk control as to workload, worksite ergonomics and risk reduction, and (c) support for flexible and restful working life. International standards are obviously relevant to these three aspects. Our own experiences in applying a set of ergonomic checkpoints to plant maintenance shiftwork demonstrate the usefulness of focusing on flexible work schedules and on multiple job-related factors such as night workload, ergonomic environment, resting conditions and training. There is a strong need for participatory planning and implementation of multi-area improvements as well as for relying on flexible schedules and autonomic teamwork. We may conclude that healthy shiftwork and healthy shiftworkers are compatible with each other only when certain conditions are met. In achieving this end, we need to combine (a) comprehensive measures to improve work schedules and job life, (b) strict risk management and (c) locally adjusted participatory steps for continual improvement.     

Ecological risk assessment in a tropical wetland contaminated with gasoline: Tier 1

To assess natural attenuation and the efficiency of remediation actions after more than two years a large accident with gasoline spill contaminated a wetland in a tropical region, an Ecological Risk Assessment based on the Dutch Triad was applied. In total, eight surface water-sampling points were distributed randomly in the affected area and on reference area upstream the contaminated site, with similar ecological characteristics. Risks based on chemical, ecotoxicological, and ecological lines of evidence (LoE) were calculated to integrate the environmental risk indexes. The chemical risk was derived from toxic pressure coefficients based on the total BTEX and naphthalene concentrations. Ecotoxicological LoE based on acute toxicity with Daphnia similis and Aliivibrio fischeri bioassays and chronic toxicity with Desmodesmus subspicatus bioassay contributed to raise uncertainty due to low sensitivity of acute assays. Genotoxicity and endocrine disruption biomarkers of Oreochromis niloticus were used to calculate the Biomarker Stress Index (BSI) assumed as Ecological Risk Index. The integration of the Chemical Risk Index with BSI to estimate the Biological Vulnerability Index allowed a meaningful analysis of the threats to the aquatic ecosystem, thereby supporting managers and decision-makers.     

Optimal adjustment of the human circadian clock in the real world

Which suggestions for behavioral modifications, based on mathematical models, are most likely to be followed in the real world? We address this question in the context of human circadian rhythms. Jet lag is a consequence of the misalignment of the body’s internal circadian (~24-hour) clock during an adjustment to a new schedule. Light is the clock’s primary synchronizer. Previous research has used mathematical models to compute light schedules that shift the circadian clock to a new time zone as quickly as possible. How users adjust their behavior when provided with these optimal schedules remains an open question. Here, we report data collected by wearables from more than 100 travelers as they cross time zones using a smartphone app, Entrain. We find that people rarely follow the optimal schedules generated through mathematical modeling entirely, but travelers who better followed the optimal schedules reported more positive moods after their trips. Using the data collected, we improve the optimal schedule predictions to accommodate real-world constraints. We also develop a scheduling algorithm that allows for the computation of approximately optimal schedules "on-the-fly" in response to disruptions. User burnout may not be critically important as long as the first parts of a schedule are followed. These results represent a crucial improvement in making the theoretical results of past work viable for practical use and show how theoretical predictions based on known human physiology can be efficiently used in real-world settings.     

Beyond the three-process model of alertness: estimating phase, time on shift, and successive night effects

This paper starts by summarizing the development and refinement of the additive three-process model of alertness first published by Folkard and Akerstedt in 1987. It reviews some of the successes that have been achieved by the model in not only predicting variations in subjective alertness on abnormal sleep-wake schedules but also in accounting for objective measures of sleep latency and duration. Nevertheless, predictions derived from the model concerning alertness on different shifts, and over successive night shifts, are difficult to reconcile with published data on accident risk. In light of this, we have examined two large sets of alertness ratings with a view to further refining the model and identifying additional factors that may influence alertness at any given point in time. Our results indicate that, at least for the range of sleep durations and wake-up times commonly found on rotating shift systems, we may assume the phase of the endogenous circadian component of alertness (process C) to be "set" by the time of waking. Such an assumption considerably enhanced the predictive power of the model and yielded remarkably similar phase estimates to those obtained by maximizing the post-hoc fit of the model. We then examined the manner in which obtained ratings differed from predicted values over a complete 8-day cycle of two, 12-h shift systems. This revealed a pronounced "first night compensation effect" that resulted in shift workers rating themselves as progressively more alert than would be predicted over the course of the first night shift. However, this appeared to be achieved only at the cost of lowered ratings on the second night shift. Finally, we were able to identify a "time on shift" effect whereby, with the exception of the first night shift, alertness ratings decreased over the course of each shift before showing a modest "end effect." We conclude that the identification of these additional components offers the possibility that in the future we may be able to predict trends in accident risk on abnormal sleep-wake schedules.     

Health and safety among film technicians working extended shifts

This paper presents selected results from a pilot research. The study of film technicians' work schedules and occupational hazards was based on a questionnaire administered to all 2200 film technicians (650 valid replies; response rate = 30%), interviews with producers and technicians on film-shooting organization and scheduling, courses in film technique, individual interviews with workers in trade at high risk, and review of the literature on freelancers, on the effects of intermittent work, and on risk factors for musculoskeletal injuries. Work schedules showed a tendency to extremely long work shifts (14 hours per day on average, and up to 19 hours in some trades). Occupational constraints and work schedules were found to relate to an increased risk of work-related injuries. Technicians identified fatigue associated with work schedules as the principal risk of accidents and one of the factors responsible for causing or aggravating their many musculoskeletal injuries. Work schedules were not the only cause of these injuries: stress--due to time constraints, work responsibilities and job insecurity--was also an important risk factor, consistent with the literature on musculoskeletal disorders. Physical workload was also problematic, particularly when demanding tasks had to be performed under severe time constraints.     

The gliding speed of migrating birds: slow and safe or fast and risky?

Aerodynamic theory postulates that gliding airspeed, a major flight performance component for soaring avian migrants, scales with bird size and wing morphology. We tested this prediction, and the role of gliding altitude and soaring conditions, using atmospheric simulations and radar tracks of 1346 birds from 12 species. Gliding airspeed did not scale with bird size and wing morphology, and unexpectedly converged to a narrow range. To explain this discrepancy, we propose that soaring‐gliding birds adjust their gliding airspeed according to the risk of grounding or switching to costly flapping flight. Introducing the Risk Aversion Flight Index (RAFI, the ratio of actual to theoretical risk‐averse gliding airspeed), we found that inter‐ and intraspecific variation in RAFI positively correlated with wing loading, and negatively correlated with convective thermal conditions and gliding altitude, respectively. We propose that risk‐sensitive behaviour modulates the evolution (morphology) and ecology (response to environmental conditions) of bird soaring flight.     

Validating and Extending the Three Process Model of Alertness in Airline Operations

Sleepiness and fatigue are important risk factors in the transport sector and bio-mathematical sleepiness, sleep and fatigue modeling is increasingly becoming a valuable tool for assessing safety of work schedules and rosters in Fatigue Risk Management Systems (FRMS). The present study sought to validate the inner workings of one such model, Three Process Model (TPM), on aircrews and extend the model with functions to model jetlag and to directly assess the risk of any sleepiness level in any shift schedule or roster with and without knowledge of sleep timings. We collected sleep and sleepiness data from 136 aircrews in a real life situation by means of an application running on a handheld touch screen computer device (iPhone, iPod or iPad) and used the TPM to predict sleepiness with varying level of complexity of model equations and data. The results based on multilevel linear and non-linear mixed effects models showed that the TPM predictions correlated with observed ratings of sleepiness, but explorative analyses suggest that the default model can be improved and reduced to include only two-processes (S+C), with adjusted phases of the circadian process based on a single question of circadian type. We also extended the model with a function to model jetlag acclimatization and with estimates of individual differences including reference limits accounting for 50%, 75% and 90% of the population as well as functions for predicting the probability of any level of sleepiness for ecological assessment of absolute and relative risk of sleepiness in shift systems for safety applications.     

Is rotating between static and dynamic work beneficial for our fatigue state?

Shoulder disorders comprise a large part of work-related musculoskeletal disorders. Risk factors, such as repetitiveness and monotony, may cause muscle fatigue and be attenuated by task rotation. We investigated rotation between a dynamic box-lifting task and a relatively static pick-and-place task and aimed to determine whether (1) a high rotation frequency leads to less fatigue development than a low rotation frequency, and (2) a self-selected rotation frequency leads to less fatigue development than imposed rotation frequencies. Ten participants performed four one-hour rotation schedules: two low frequency rotation schedules rotating at 30 min, one high frequency rotation schedule rotating every sixth minute, and a self-selected rotation schedule. Borg, SOFI and electromyography of Trapezius and Deltoid subparts served as fatigue indicators. We found significant signs of fatigue for most schedules regarding the Borg and SOFI ratings and the M. Trapezius pars Descendens. Task rotation frequency had no significant effect on any of the outcome parameters, whereas the self-selected rotation schedule clearly resulted in less development of perceived fatigue than imposed schedules. In conclusion, we think that freedom of rotation has the greatest potential to attenuate potential development of musculoskeletal disorders and we require due caution with the use and interpretation of EMG indicators of fatigue.     

Catastrophe Risk Analysis: A Financial Perspective

This article examines how catastrophe events affect risk analysis from a financial perspective. Data from different industries such as Advanced Sustainable Performance Indices, gold, energy, real estate, and insurance were collected and analyzed. The performance of these funds was compared by using various financial ratios. Then we tested the stock selecting and market timing abilities. We also assessed whether a particular catastrophe event has affected stock prices by analysis of two event studies, the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States and the collapse through bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. We examined how an asset portfolio performs under catastrophic events and under the situation of adding Advanced Sustainable Performance Indices into an investor's portfolio basket. We found that the 9/11 terrorist attacks affected the Dow Jones Real Estate Index's prices a lot. Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy filing had a positive impact on the CBOE Gold Index, and had a large impact on the Fidelity US Bond Index. The ASPI Index in our optimization problem gave us better diversification. From our analysis, we conclude that portfolio diversification is a good way to hedge against catastrophic risk.     

基于GIS技术的吉林省生态灾害风险评价

基于自然灾害风险形成原理,综合考虑吉林省自然和社会经济现状,从致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的暴露性和脆弱性及防灾减灾能力4个方面选取指标,利用自然灾害风险指数法、加权综合评价法及层次分析法构建生态灾害风险评价模型,评价了各风险因子的贡献率,并运用GIS技术生成吉林省生态灾害风险区划图.评价结果对于正确认识吉林省的生态环境风险水平,有针对性地确定生态恢复与管理决策都有重要意义.     

Clustered sparsity and Poisson-gap sampling

Non-uniform sampling (NUS) is a popular way of reducing the amount of time taken by multidimensional NMR experiments. Among the various non-uniform sampling schemes that exist, the Poisson-gap (PG) schedules are particularly popular, especially when combined with compressed-sensing (CS) reconstruction of missing data points. However, the use of PG is based mainly on practical experience and has not, as yet, been explained in terms of CS theory. Moreover, an apparent contradiction exists between the reported effectiveness of PG and CS theory, which states that a “flat” pseudo-random generator is the best way to generate sampling schedules in order to reconstruct sparse spectra. In this paper we explain how, and in what situations, PG reveals its superior features in NMR spectroscopy. We support our theoretical considerations with simulations and analyses of experimental data from the Biological Magnetic Resonance Bank (BMRB). Our analyses reveal a previously unnoticed feature of many NMR spectra that explains the success of ”blue-noise” schedules, such as PG. We call this feature “clustered sparsity”. This refers to the fact that the peaks in NMR spectra are not just sparse but often form clusters in the indirect dimension, and PG is particularly suited to deal with such situations. Additionally, we discuss why denser sampling in the initial and final parts of the clustered signal may be useful.

     

Is 24-hour energy intake greater during night shift compared to non-night shift patterns? A systematic review

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Epidemiological studies show that shift workers are at increased risk of cardiovascular diseases, metabolic dysfunction, diabetes, and obesity. Previous research has shown no difference in energy intake between night and day shifts only; however, it remains unclear whether other non-night shift patterns are different to night shift.

Objectives: We investigated whether energy intake of night-shift workers differed from other shift patterns using calorimetry, food diary or food recall over 24-hour periods.

Methods: A systematic review was conducted searching CINAHL, MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase and PsycINFO databases for observational and interventional studies measuring energy intake in real or simulated shift work. Energy intake was extracted to compare night, day, afternoon/evening and rotating shift work cases.

Results: After duplicate removal, we screened 1057 abstracts and 68 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility of which 15 studies met the inclusion criteria. All studies were cross-sectional and case–control designs in shift workers. Risk of bias assessment showed a low to moderate risk of bias in the majority of studies. There was no difference in energy intake between night-shift work and non-night shift patterns including early morning, day and afternoon/evening shifts. Night-shift workers did not favor particular macronutrients in comparison to other shift schedules.

Conclusions: Energy and macronutrient intake were not detectably different in night shift compared to other shift patterns. Shift work patterns were heterogeneous which likely impacted on dietary assessment timings and computation of 24-h energy intake. Future studies should examine shift schedules with precise circadian timing of food consumption to determine if differences exist in energy and macronutrient intake between different shift patterns.     

Classification method for disease risk mapping based on discrete hidden Markov random fields

Risk mapping in epidemiology enables areas with a low or high risk of disease contamination to be localized and provides a measure of risk differences between these regions. Risk mapping models for pooled data currently used by epidemiologists focus on the estimated risk for each geographical unit. They are based on a Poisson log-linear mixed model with a latent intrinsic continuous hidden Markov random field (HMRF) generally corresponding to a Gaussian autoregressive spatial smoothing. Risk classification, which is necessary to draw clearly delimited risk zones (in which protection measures may be applied), generally must be performed separately. We propose a method for direct classified risk mapping based on a Poisson log-linear mixed model with a latent discrete HMRF. The discrete hidden field (HF) corresponds to the assignment of each spatial unit to a risk class. The risk values attached to the classes are parameters and are estimated. When mapping risk using HMRFs, the conditional distribution of the observed field is modeled with a Poisson rather than a Gaussian distribution as in image segmentation. Moreover, abrupt changes in risk levels are rare in disease maps. The spatial hidden model should favor smoothed out risks, but conventional discrete Markov random fields (e.g. the Potts model) do not impose this. We therefore propose new potential functions for the HF that take into account class ordering. We use a Monte Carlo version of the expectation-maximization algorithm to estimate parameters and determine risk classes. We illustrate the method's behavior on simulated and real data sets. Our method appears particularly well adapted to localize high-risk regions and estimate the corresponding risk levels.