The impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) on HIV epidemics in Africa and India: a simulation study

Background

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a promising new HIV prevention method, especially for women. An urgent demand for implementation of PrEP is expected at the moment efficacy has been demonstrated in clinical trials. We explored the long-term impact of PrEP on HIV transmission in different HIV epidemics.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used a mathematical model that distinguishes the general population, sex workers and their clients. PrEP scenarios varying in effectiveness, coverage and target group were modeled in the epidemiological settings of Botswana, Nyanza Province in Kenya, and Southern India. We also studied the effect of condom addition or condom substitution during PrEP use. Main outcome was number of HIV infections averted over ten years of PrEP use. PrEP strategies with high effectiveness and high coverage can have a substantial impact in African settings. In Southern India, by contrast, the number of averted HIV infections in different PrEP scenarios would be much lower. The impact of PrEP may be strongly diminished or even reversed by behavioral disinhibition, especially in scenarios with low coverage and low effectiveness. However, additional condom use during low coverage and low effective PrEP doubled the amount of averted HIV infections.

Conclusions/Significance

The public health impact of PrEP can be substantial. However, this impact may be diminished, or even reversed, by changes in risk behavior. Implementation of PrEP strategies should therefore come on top of current condom campaigns, not as a substitution.     

Antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis prevents vaginal transmission of HIV-1 in humanized BLT mice

Background

Worldwide, vaginal transmission now accounts for more than half of newly acquired HIV-1 infections. Despite the urgency to develop and implement novel approaches capable of preventing HIV transmission, this process has been hindered by the lack of adequate small animal models for preclinical efficacy and safety testing. Given the importance of this route of transmission, we investigated the susceptibility of humanized mice to intravaginal HIV-1 infection.

Methods and Findings

We show that the female reproductive tract of humanized bone marrow–liver–thymus (BLT) mice is reconstituted with human CD4⁺ T and other relevant human cells, rendering these humanized mice susceptible to intravaginal infection by HIV-1. Effects of HIV-1 infection include CD4⁺ T cell depletion in gut-associated lymphoid tissue (GALT) that closely mimics what is observed in HIV-1–infected humans. We also show that pre-exposure prophylaxis with antiretroviral drugs is a highly effective method for preventing vaginal HIV-1 transmission. Whereas 88% (7/8) of BLT mice inoculated vaginally with HIV-1 became infected, none of the animals (0/5) given pre-exposure prophylaxis of emtricitabine (FTC)/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) showed evidence of infection (Chi square = 7.5, df = 1, p = 0.006).

Conclusions

The fact that humanized BLT mice are susceptible to intravaginal infection makes this system an excellent candidate for preclinical evaluation of both microbicides and pre-exposure prophylactic regimens. The utility of humanized mice to study intravaginal HIV-1 transmission is particularly highlighted by the demonstration that pre-exposure prophylaxis can prevent intravaginal HIV-1 transmission in the BLT mouse model.     

Impact of vaginal microbiome communities on HIV antiretroviral-based pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) drug metabolism

Despite the efficacy of antiretroviral-based pre-exposure prophylactics (PrEP) in men who have sex with men, studies in women have produced widely varying outcomes. Recent evidence demonstrates that vaginal microbial communities are associated with increased HIV acquisition risk and may impact PrEP efficacy. Here, we investigate the mechanisms underlying how vaginal bacteria alter PrEP drug levels and impact HIV infection rates ex vivo. Using cervicovaginal lavages (CVLs) from women with or without bacterial vaginosis (BV), we identified microbial metabolism of PrEP drugs in BV samples through LC-MS/MS analysis of soluble drug levels and metabolite formation in dual T-cell cultures. CVL samples were assessed for microbiome analysis using sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA genes. We also observed non-Lactobacillus bacteria that are associated with BV may potentially impact PrEP efficacy through increased HIV infection rates in co-cultures containing Lactobacillus or BV bacteria, PrEP drugs, CEM-GFP cells, and HIV-1_LAI virus. Finally, we used these data to develop a novel predictive mathematical simulation modeling system to predict these drug interactions for future trials. These studies demonstrate how dysbiotic vaginal microbiota may impact PrEP drugs and provides evidence linking vaginal bacteria to PrEP efficacy in women.     

Safety and adherence to intermittent pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV-1 in African men who have sex with men and female sex workers

Background

Little is known about safety of and adherence to intermittent HIV PrEP regimens, which may be more feasible than daily dosing in some settings. We present safety and adherence data from the first trial of an intermittent PrEP regimen among Kenyan men who have sex with men (MSM) and female sex workers (FSW).

Methods/Principal Findings

MSM and FSW were randomized to daily oral FTC/TDF or placebo, or intermittent (Monday, Friday and within 2 hours after sex, not to exceed one dose per day) oral FTC/TDF or placebo in a 2∶1∶2∶1 ratio; volunteers were followed monthly for 4 months. Adherence was assessed with the medication event monitoring system (MEMS). Sexual activity data were collected via daily text message (SMS) queries and timeline followback interviews with a one-month recall period. Sixty-seven men and 5 women were randomized into the study. Safety was similar among all groups. Median MEMS adherence rates were 83% [IQR: 63–92] for daily dosing and 55% [IQR:28–78] for fixed intermittent dosing (p = 0.003), while adherence to any post-coital doses was 26% [IQR:14–50]. SMS response rates were low, which may have impaired measurement of post-coital dosing adherence. Acceptability of PrEP was high, regardless of dosing regimen.

Conclusions/Significance

Adherence to intermittent dosing regimens, fixed doses, and in particular coitally-dependent doses, may be more difficult than adherence to daily dosing. However, intermittent dosing may still be appropriate for PrEP if intracellular drug levels, which correlate with prevention of HIV acquisition, can be attained with less than daily dosing and if barriers to adherence can be addressed. Additional drug level data, qualitative data on adherence barriers, and better methods to measure sexual activity are necessary to determine whether adherence to post-coital PrEP could be comparable to more standard regimens.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00971230","term_id":"NCT00971230"}}NCT00971230     

A qualitative study of provider thoughts on implementing pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in clinical settings to prevent HIV infection

Background

A recent clinical trial demonstrated that a daily dose tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabrine (TDF-FTC) can reduce HIV acquisition among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender (TG) women by 44%, and up to 90% if taken daily. We explored how medical and service providers understand research results and plan to develop clinical protocols to prescribe, support and monitor adherence for patients on PrEP in the United States.

Methods

Using referrals from our community collaborators and snowball sampling, we recruited 22 healthcare providers in San Francisco, Oakland, and Los Angeles for in-depth interviews from May-December 2011. The providers included primary care physicians seeing high numbers of MSM and TG women, HIV specialists, community health clinic providers, and public health officials. We analyzed interviews thematically to produce recommendations for setting policy around implementing PrEP. Interview topics included: assessing clinician impressions of PrEP and CDC guidance, considerations of cost, office capacity, dosing schedules, and following patients over time.

Results

Little or no demand for PrEP from patients was reported at the time of the interviews. Providers did not agree on the most appropriate patients for PrEP and believed that current models of care, which do not involve routine frequent office visits, were not well suited for prescribing PrEP. Providers detailed the need to build capacity and were concerned about monitoring side effects and adherence. PrEP was seen as potentially having impact on the epidemic but providers also noted that community education campaigns needed to be tailored to effectively reach specific vulnerable populations.

Conclusions

While PrEP may be a novel and clinically compelling prevention intervention for MSM and TG women, it raises a number of important implementation challenges that would need to be addressed. Nonetheless, most providers expressed optimism that they eventually could prescribe and monitor PrEP in their practice.     

Factors influencing the emergence and spread of HIV drug resistance arising from rollout of antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP)

Background

The potential for emergence and spread of HIV drug resistance from rollout of antiretroviral (ARV) pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an important public health concern. We investigated determinants of HIV drug resistance prevalence after PrEP implementation through mathematical modeling.

Methodology

A model incorporating heterogeneity in age, gender, sexual activity, HIV infection status, stage of disease, PrEP coverage/discontinuation, and HIV drug susceptibility, was designed to simulate the impact of PrEP on HIV prevention and drug resistance in a sub-Saharan epidemic.

Principal Findings

Analyses suggest that the prevalence of HIV drug resistance is influenced most by the extent and duration of inadvertent PrEP use in individuals already infected with HIV. Other key factors affecting drug resistance prevalence include the persistence time of transmitted resistance and the duration of inadvertent PrEP use in individuals who become infected on PrEP. From uncertainty analysis, the median overall prevalence of drug resistance at 10 years was predicted to be 9.2% (interquartile range 6.9%–12.2%). An optimistic scenario of 75% PrEP efficacy, 60% coverage of the susceptible population, and 5% inadvertent PrEP use predicts a rise in HIV drug resistance prevalence to only 2.5% after 10 years. By contrast, in a pessimistic scenario of 25% PrEP efficacy, 15% population coverage, and 25% inadvertent PrEP use, resistance prevalence increased to over 40%.

Conclusions

Inadvertent PrEP use in previously-infected individuals is the major determinant of HIV drug resistance prevalence arising from PrEP. Both the rate and duration of inadvertent PrEP use are key factors. PrEP rollout programs should include routine monitoring of HIV infection status to limit the spread of drug resistance.     

Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis by anti-retrovirals raltegravir and maraviroc protects against HIV-1 vaginal transmission in a humanized mouse model

Sexual HIV-1 transmission by vaginal route is the most predominant mode of viral transmission, resulting in millions of new infections every year. In the absence of an effective vaccine, there is an urgent need to develop other alternative methods of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Many novel drugs that are currently approved for clinical use also show great potential to prevent viral sexual transmission when administered systemically. A small animal model that permits rapid preclinical evaluation of potential candidates for their systemic PrEP efficacy will greatly enhance progress in this area of investigation. We have previously shown that RAG-hu humanized mouse model permits HIV-1 mucosal transmission via both vaginal and rectal routes and displays CD4 T cell loss typical to that seen in the human. Thus far systemic PrEP studies have been primarily limited to RT inhibitors exemplified by tenofovir and emtricitabine. In these proof-of-concept studies we evaluated two new classes of clinically approved drugs with different modes of action namely, an integrase inhibitor raltegravir and a CCR5 inhibitor maraviroc as potential systemically administered chemo-prophylactics. Our results showed that oral administration of either of these drugs fully protects against vaginal HIV-1 challenge in the RAG-hu mouse model. Based on these results both these drugs show great promise for further development as orally administered PrEPs.     

Characteristics of HIV-1 serodiscordant couples enrolled in a clinical trial of antiretroviral pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV-1 prevention

Introduction

Stable heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples in Africa have high HIV-1 transmission rates and are a critical population for evaluation of new HIV-1 prevention strategies. The Partners PrEP Study is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of tenofovir and emtricitabine-tenofovir pre-exposure prophylaxis to decrease HIV-1 acquisition within heterosexual HIV-1 serodiscordant couples. We describe the trial design and characteristics of the study cohort.

Methods

HIV-1 serodiscordant couples, in which the HIV-1 infected partner did not meet national guidelines for initiation of antiretroviral therapy, were enrolled at 9 research sites in Kenya and Uganda. The HIV-1 susceptible partner was randomized to daily oral tenofovir, emtricitabine-tenofovir, or matching placebo with monthly follow-up for 24–36 months.

Results

From July 2008 to November 2010, 7920 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples were screened and 4758 enrolled. For 62% (2966/4758) of enrolled couples, the HIV-1 susceptible partner was male. Median age was 33 years for HIV-1 susceptible and HIV-1 infected partners [IQR (28–40) and (26–39) respectively]. Most couples (98%) were married, with a median duration of partnership of 7.0 years (IQR 3.0–14.0) and recent knowledge of their serodiscordant status [median 0.4 years (IQR 0.1–2.0)]. During the month prior to enrollment, couples reported a median of 4 sex acts (IQR 2–8); 27% reported unprotected sex and 14% of male and 1% of female HIV-1 susceptible partners reported sex with outside partners. Among HIV-1 infected partners, the median plasma HIV-1 level was 3.94 log₁₀ copies/mL (IQR 3.31–4.53) and median CD4 count was 496 cells/µL (IQR 375–662); the majority (64%) had WHO stage 1 HIV-1 disease.

Conclusions

Couples at high risk of HIV-1 transmission were rapidly recruited into the Partners PrEP Study, the largest efficacy trial of oral PrEP. (ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00557245","term_id":"NCT00557245"}}NCT00557245)     

KIR-HLA and maternal-infant HIV-1 transmission in sub-Saharan Africa

Numerous studies have suggested a role for natural killer (NK) cells in attenuation of HIV-1 disease progression via recognition by killer-cell immunoglobulin-like receptors (KIRs) of specific HLA class I molecules. The role of KIR and HLA class I has not been addressed in the context of maternal-infant HIV-1 transmission. KIR and HLA class I B and C genes from 224 HIV-1-infected mothers and 222 infants (72 infected and 150 uninfected) from South Africa were characterized. Although a number of significant associations were determined in both the total group and in the nevirapine (NVP) exposed group, the most significant findings involved KIR2DL2 and KIR2DL3 and HLA-C. KIR2DL2/KIR2DL3 was underrepresented in intrapartum (IP)-transmitting mothers compared to non-transmitting (NT) mothers (P = 0.008) and remained significant (P = 0.036) after correction for maternal viral load (MVL). Homozygosity for KIR2DL3 alone and in combination with HLA-C allotype heterozygosity (C1C2) was elevated in IP-transmitting mothers compared to NT mothers (P = 0.034 and P = 0.01 respectively), and after MVL correction (P = 0.033 and P = 0.027, respectively). In infants, KIR2DL3 in combination with its HLA-C1 ligand (C1) as well as homozygosity for KIR2DL3 with C1C2, were both found to be underrepresented in infected infants compared to exposed uninfected infants in the total group (P = 0.06 and P = 0.038, respectively) and in the sub-group of infants whose mothers received NVP (P = 0.007 and P = 0.03, respectively). These associations were stronger post MVL adjustment (total group: P = 0.02 and P = 0.009, respectively; NVP group: P = 0.004 and P = 0.02, respectively). Upon stratification according to low and high MVL, all significant associations fell within the low MVL group, suggesting that with low viral load, the effects of genotype can be more easily detected. In conclusion this study has identified a number of significant associations that suggest an important role for NK cells in maternal-to-infant HIV-1 transmission.     

Preparing for the Rollout of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP): A Vignette Survey to Identify Intended Sexual Behaviors among Women in Kenya and South Africa if Using PrEP

Introduction

Several clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in reducing HIV risk. One concern with introducing PrEP is whether users will engage in riskier sexual behaviors.

Methods

We assessed the effect that PrEP may have on sexual risk behaviors by administering a survey to 799 women in Bondo, Kenya, and Pretoria, South Africa. Participants were asked about their sexual behavior intentions twice — once as if they were taking PrEP and once as if they were not taking PrEP — within four risk situations (vignettes). They responded using a 5-point ordinal scale. We used a series of linear mixed effects models with an unstructured residual covariance matrix to estimate the between- and within-subject differences in the mean likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior across the PrEP and non-PrEP contexts. We also calculated the total percentage of participants who reported a greater likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior if taking PrEP than if not taking PrEP, by vignette.

Results

We found statistically significant differences in the mean likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior with the between-subject comparison (-0.17, p < 0.01) and with the within-subject comparison (-0.31, p < 0.001). Depending on the vignette, 27% to 40% of participants reported a greater likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior if taking PrEP than if not taking PrEP.

Conclusions

Our findings indicate that modest increases in risky sexual behavior could occur with PrEP. Although responses from the majority of participants suggest they would not be more likely to engage in risky sexual behavior if they took PrEP, a substantial proportion might. Programs rolling out PrEP should be prepared to assist similar women in making informed choices about reducing their risk of HIV and about their sexual health beyond HIV prevention.     

A model of HIV-1 transmission for urban areas of Africa

A model of the transmission dynamics of HIV-1, appropriate to urban areas of Africa, is presented and its behaviour explored through numerical studies. The model is a two-sex model with age-dependent demographic and behavioural parameters. Adults are classified by age, sex, risk group, and epidemiologic status. HIV-1 is transmitted to adults heterosexually, and to infants and children vertically and parenterally. Numerical studies show that, while AIDS will slow population growth, growth rates do not become negative for reasonable parameter values. The sex and age patterns of infection are explored, as is the potential economic impact of changes in the sex and age composition of the population.     

Emergence of minor drug-resistant HIV-1 variants after triple antiretroviral prophylaxis for prevention of vertical HIV-1 transmission

Background

WHO-guidelines for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 in resource-limited settings recommend complex maternal antiretroviral prophylaxis comprising antenatal zidovudine (AZT), nevirapine single-dose (NVP-SD) at labor onset and AZT/lamivudine (3TC) during labor and one week postpartum. Data on resistance development selected by this regimen is not available. We therefore analyzed the emergence of minor drug-resistant HIV-1 variants in Tanzanian women following complex prophylaxis.

Method

1395 pregnant women were tested for HIV-1 at Kyela District Hospital, Tanzania. 87/202 HIV-positive women started complex prophylaxis. Blood samples were collected before start of prophylaxis, at birth and 1–2, 4–6 and 12–16 weeks postpartum. Allele-specific real-time PCR assays specific for HIV-1 subtypes A, C and D were developed and applied on samples of mothers and their vertically infected infants to quantify key resistance mutations of AZT (K70R/T215Y/T215F), NVP (K103N/Y181C) and 3TC (M184V) at detection limits of <1%.

Results

50/87 HIV-infected women having started complex prophylaxis were eligible for the study. All women took AZT with a median duration of 53 days (IQR 39–64); all women ingested NVP-SD, 86% took 3TC. HIV-1 resistance mutations were detected in 20/50 (40%) women, of which 70% displayed minority species. Variants with AZT-resistance mutations were found in 11/50 (22%), NVP-resistant variants in 9/50 (18%) and 3TC-resistant variants in 4/50 women (8%). Three women harbored resistant HIV-1 against more than one drug. 49/50 infants, including the seven vertically HIV-infected were breastfed, 3/7 infants exhibited drug-resistant virus.

Conclusion

Complex prophylaxis resulted in lower levels of NVP-selected resistance as compared to NVP-SD, but AZT-resistant HIV-1 emerged in a substantial proportion of women. Starting AZT in pregnancy week 14 instead of 28 as recommended by the current WHO-guidelines may further increase the frequency of AZT-resistance mutations. Given its impact on HIV-transmission rate and drug-resistance development, HAART for all HIV-positive pregnant women should be considered.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) in Preventing HIV-1 Infections in Rural Zambia: A Modeling Study

Background

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir and emtricitabine effectively prevents new HIV infections. The optimal scenario for implementing PrEP where most infections are averted at the lowest cost is unknown. We determined the impact of different PrEP strategies on averting new infections, prevalence, drug resistance and cost-effectiveness in Macha, a rural setting in Zambia.

Methods

A deterministic mathematical model of HIV transmission was constructed using data from the Macha epidemic (antenatal prevalence 7.7%). Antiretroviral therapy is started at CD4<350 cells/mm³. We compared the number of infections averted, cost-effectiveness, and potential emergence of drug resistance of two ends of the prioritization spectrum: prioritizing PrEP to half of the most sexually active individuals (5–15% of the total population), versus randomly putting 40–60% of the total population on PrEP.

Results

Prioritizing PrEP to individuals with the highest sexual activity resulted in more infections averted than a non-prioritized strategy over ten years (31% and 23% reduction in new infections respectively), and also a lower HIV prevalence after ten years (5.7%, 6.4% respectively). The strategy was very cost-effective at $323 per quality adjusted life year gained and appeared to be both less costly and more effective than the non-prioritized strategy. The prevalence of drug resistance due to PrEP was as high as 11.6% when all assumed breakthrough infections resulted in resistance, and as low as 1.3% when 10% of breakthrough infections resulted in resistance in both our prioritized and non-prioritized scenarios.

Conclusions

Even in settings with low test rates and treatment retention, the use of PrEP can still be a useful strategy in averting infections. Our model has shown that PrEP is a cost-effective strategy for reducing HIV incidence, even when adherence is suboptimal and prioritization is imperfect.     

Mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 in sub-Saharan Africa: past, present and future challenges

HIV prevalence continues to be high among women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2007 the HIV prevalence among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics was >20% in the southern African counties of Botswana, Swaziland, South Africa and Lesotho. Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV can occur in-utero, intrapartum or postnatally. Without any preventive measure the overall rate of the MTCT of HIV in breastfeeding women could be 25-45%. Prior to the discovery of successful antiretroviral interventions to prevent the MTCT of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (before 1999), innovative research determined the magnitude of the problem, the impact of the HIV epidemic on mothers and children, and the main risk factors associated with MTCT. Non-antiretroviral interventions conducted before 1999 such as washing the birth canal with antiseptics and antenatal supplementation with vitamin A did not reduce the MTCT of HIV. However, during the period 1999 to present, major successes were made in the prevention of the MTCT of HIV. The use of single-dose nevirapine prophylaxis to the mother and infant reduced the MTCT of HIV to ~12%. Subsequently, longer prophylaxis and combined antiretroviral regimens were shown to be highly effective and very low HIV transmission rates comparable to those in developed countries were reported in some clinical trial settings in sub-Saharan Africa. The future is promising but challenges remain. The current successful intervention modalities are entirely dependent on antiretrovirals and breastfeeding continues to be vital for the survival of the child in the African setting. Reviewing past and present achievements assists in focusing future research and development of prevention programs.     

Elephant (Loxodonta africana) impact on trees used by nesting vultures and raptors in South Africa

Negative influences on the establishment and persistence of large trees used by tree‐nesting birds as nesting sites represent a potential threat to vultures and raptors. We monitored large trees and their surrounding vegetation and analysed whether trees with nesting sites are at risk due to elephant impact. Trees with nests did not differ in elephant impact from control trees without nests, and the survival rates of trees with nests and the actual nests within the trees showed that nests decreased at a faster rate than the trees themselves. Elephant damage did not affect the persistence of nests over the 5‐year monitoring period. However, the presence of insects and fungus on large trees was negatively related to tree survival, thereby indicating that elephant impact could indirectly facilitate insect and fungus attack and shorten the lifespan of a tree.