Agent农业土地变化模型研究进展

农业土地变化是全球变化与可持续研究的热点,当前研究虽取得了长足进展,但仍存在诸多不足,集中表现在对农业土地系统复杂性与动态性的认识不够.近年来,基于Agent的农业土地变化研究(农业ABM/LUCC,Agent-based agricultural land change modeling)逐渐兴起,极大的丰富了传统研究的理论与方法,具体表现在:(1)农业ABM/LUCC将微观层面的人类个体行为整合进土地变化研究框架,有助于更加清楚的认识农业土地系统的“人类-自然”综合复杂性问题.(2)农业ABM/LUCC能够动态表达土地系统变化的内生反馈机制,有助于弥补传统的静态土地变化驱动机制分析的不足.(3)基于ABM/LUCC的农业土地利用格局动态研究是整合“人类-自然”综合研究的关键桥梁,农业ABM/LUCC能够与其他生物地球物理模型或经济模型动态嵌套,使多尺度、多维度综合模型研究成为可能.然而,农业ABM/LUCC研究也存在诸多挑战,如理论研究滞后于应用研究,大尺度应用难以开展,以及农户行为的模拟结果很难得到校验等.     

Valuing ecosystem services to explore scenarios for adaptive spatial planning

As the ecosystem services concept increasingly gains importance, it needs translation into practical applications. Recent efforts of EU member states to map ES are opening new opportunities to include ES in spatial planning and adaptive land management. For this, spatial planners and policy makers need practical tools that integrate a variety of social and biophysical information in an accessible way. We argue that monetary valuation of ES can contribute to this challenge. A methodological framework was developed to explore adaptive management of bioproductive space. The first stage in the methodology is a spatially explicit evaluation of various ecosystem services for different land uses. In a second stage, bio-physical and socio-economic drivers or shocks are introduced that can influence the value society attributes to specific ecosystem services. The third stage of the methodology takes policy priorities into account. In a final stage, the output of the approach is synthesised by ranking the analysis results for different scenarios and policy priority settings. This methodology allows spatial planners to explore and evaluate policy decisions against trade-offs between various land use alternatives, while taking ecosystem services into account. To demonstrate its use, the methodology is applied to a small-scale case study that combines extensive livestock production with the development of natural values. The application to the case demonstrates that the optimal strategy from a societal perspective, can be highly context-dependent. Besides the potential for supporting policy makers to think about the broader implications of land use changes for community wellbeing, the methodology provides useful feedback for adaptive farm and landscape management. We underline both the potential and possible caveats in using this approach for land use evaluation.     

The fundamental role of ecological feedback mechanisms for the adaptive management of seagrass ecosystems – a review

Seagrass meadows are vital ecosystems in coastal zones worldwide, but are also under global threat. One of the major hurdles restricting the success of seagrass conservation and restoration is our limited understanding of ecological feedback mechanisms. In these ecosystems, multiple, self‐reinforcing feedbacks can undermine conservation efforts by masking environmental impacts until the decline is precipitous, or alternatively they can inhibit seagrass recovery in spite of restoration efforts. However, no clear framework yet exists for identifying or dealing with feedbacks to improve the management of seagrass ecosystems. Here we review the causes and consequences of multiple feedbacks between seagrass and biotic and/or abiotic processes. We demonstrate how feedbacks have the potential to impose or reinforce regimes of either seagrass dominance or unvegetated substrate, and how the strength and importance of these feedbacks vary across environmental gradients. Although a myriad of feedbacks have now been identified, the co‐occurrence and likely interaction among feedbacks has largely been overlooked to date due to difficulties in analysis and detection. Here we take a fundamental step forward by modelling the interactions among two distinct above‐ and belowground feedbacks to demonstrate that interacting feedbacks are likely to be important for ecosystem resilience. On this basis, we propose a five‐step adaptive management plan to address feedback dynamics for effective conservation and restoration strategies. The management plan provides guidance to aid in the identification and prioritisation of likely feedbacks in different seagrass ecosystems.     

Coupling microscale vegetation–soil water and macroscale vegetation–precipitation feedbacks in semiarid ecosystems

At macroscale, land–atmosphere exchange of energy and water in semiarid zones such as the Sahel constitutes a strong positive feedback between vegetation density and precipitation. At microscale, however, additional positive feedbacks between hydrology and vegetation such as increase of infiltration due to increase of vegetation, have been reported and have a large impact on vegetation distribution and spatial pattern formation. If both macroscale and microscale positive feedbacks are present in the same region, it is reasonable to assume that these feedback mechanisms are connected. In this study, we develop and analyse a soil‐vegetation‐atmosphere model coupling large‐scale evapotranspiration–precipitation feedback with a model of microscale vegetation–hydrology feedback to study the integration of these nonlinearities at disparate scales. From our results, two important conclusions can be drawn: (1) it is important to account for spatially explicit vegetation dynamics at the microscale in climate models (the strength of the precipitation feedback increased up to 35% by accounting for these microscale dynamics); (2) studies on resilience of ecosystems to climate change should always be cast within a framework of possible large‐scale atmospheric feedback mechanism (substantial changes in vegetation resilience resulted from incorporating macroscale precipitation feedback). Analysis of full‐coupled modelling shows that both type of feedbacks markedly influence each other and that they should both be accounted for in climate change models.     

Enhancing the conservation status and resilience of a narrowly distributed forest: A challenge to effectively support ecosystem services in practice

The conservation and sustainable management of forests has become an important issue, especially in ecosystems where keystone species form unique and marginal forest habitats with narrow distribution. With increasing pressures and threats to nature, the establishment of Protected Areas has been recognized as a major tool for maintaining well-functioning forest ecosystems and their associated ecosystem services (ES). This study aims at assessing the changes in the status of a narrowly distributed Mediterranean forest through the perspective of land cover dynamics and the ES framework. Using the priority habitat of Cedrus brevifolia forest as a case study, the distribution of land use and land cover (LULC) was mapped and simulated, together with the supply of multiple ES before and after the implementation of conservation measures. The results prior applying the management actions revealed a general pattern of forest densification that did not act fully in favor of C. brevifolia due to competitions among forest species. From an ES viewpoint, forest densification led to landscape homogenization affecting important ES such as the increase in the supply of regulating services, and the decrease in the ability to support nursery populations and habitats. By contrast, the future simulation of LULC integrated with afforestation and thinning measures showed an expected increase in both high-density vegetation and cedar trees, benefiting multiple ES. The current findings highlight the importance of sustainable forest management in enhancing the co-occurrence of several ES and supporting the overall multi-functionality of ecosystems. The holistic approach presented in this study can offer new insights into the relation between ES and natural ecosystem and/or habitats’ management while avoiding potential negative impacts on human well-being and ecosystem resilience.     

Farmers’ Perspectives on Vital Soil-related Ecosystem Services in Intensive Swidden Farming Systems in the Peruvian Amazon

A growing dilemma is how to conserve Amazonian forest while allowing local people to secure their livelihoods. Small-scale swidden farming in Amazonia is entirely dependent on the continued provision of ecosystem services (ES) that generate the conditions for agriculture. This study identified soil-related ES needed for, and enhanced by, productive swidden systems from the farmer’s perspective. Workshops in six farming communities in northeastern Peru discussed various land uses, swidden systems that continue to be productive, and swidden systems on degraded land. The participating farmers noted changes in their production systems and described the ES (or lack thereof) in terms of soil quality, crop production quantity and quality, burning practices, forest regeneration, and farming skill. The central elements described in farmers’ own strategies for managing soil-related ES were fallow management for biomass production and crop diversity, factors identified as central to future ES management work in established agricultural areas in Amazonia.     

Linking biodiversity indicators,ecosystem functioning,provision of services and human well-being in estuarine systems: Application of a conceptual framework

Assuming that human well-being strongly relies on the services provided by well-functioning ecosystems, changes in the ecological functioning of any system can have direct and indirect effects on human welfare. Intensive land use and tourism have expanded in recent decades along coastal ecosystems, together with increasing demands for water, food and energy; all of these factors intensify the exploitation of natural resources. Many of the interrelations between ecosystem functioning and the provision of ecosystem services (ES) still require quantification in estuarine systems. A conceptual framework to assess such links in a spatially and temporally explicit manner is proposed and applied to the Mondego estuary (Portugal). This framework relies on three consecutive steps and discriminates among biodiversity structural components, ecosystem functioning and stability and the services provided by the ecosystem.Disturbances in abiotic factors were found to have a direct effect on biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and the provision of ES. The observed changes in the species composition of communities had a positive effect on the ecosystem's productivity and stability. Moreover, the observed changes in the estuarine ES provision are likely to arise from changing structural and abiotic factors and in the present case from the loss or decline of locally abundant species. This study also indicates that linear relationships between biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and services provision are unlikely to occur in estuarine systems. Instead, cumulative and complex relations are observed between factors on both temporal and spatial scales. In this context, the results suggest several additional conclusions: (1) biodiversity and ecosystem functioning interaction with human well-being need to be incorporated into decision-making processes aimed at the conservative management of systems; (2) the institutional use of research results must be part of the design and implementation of sustainable management activities; and (3) more integrative tools/studies are required to account for the interactions of estuarine ecosystems with surrounding socio-economic activities. Therefore, when performing integrated assessments of ecosystem dynamics, it becomes essential to consider not only the effects of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning on services provision but also the effects that human well-being and ES provision may have on estuarine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.The proposed framework implies taking into account both the functional and the commodities points of view upon natural ecosystems and by this representing a line of thought which will deserve further research to explore more in detail the conceptual links between biodiversity–ecosystem functioning–services provided.     

植物——土壤反馈研究进展

该文综述了植物—土壤反馈研究的定义、途经、方法和国内外的研究现状以及存在的问题。植物—土壤反馈是指植物改变根际土壤的生物和非生物特征,同时被改变的也能提高或降低该植物的生长,形成正的或负的反馈,从而影响植物群落组成及植物间相互作用。植物—土壤反馈研究对于理解植物群落演替、生态系统多样性与生产力形成与维持机制,认识生态系统对气候变化和生物入侵等全球生态事件的响应具有重要的理论意义。外来物种快速生长和繁殖及其可能的负反馈可能会导致本地种被竞争排除,未来气候变化可能导致物种组成发生变化及生物多样性丢失,但资源互补和植物—土壤反馈效应则可能使植物群落具有较高的生产力和多样性。因此,未来植物—土壤反馈关系应该加强以下几方面研究:(1)开展不同生态系统植物—土壤反馈关系的比较研究;(2)植物—土壤及土壤—植物等群落水平的反馈研究;(3)特别是要加强分子和基因工具在植物土壤—反馈关系中的应用,揭示植物—土壤反馈关系的分子机理。     

A conceptual model of farmers' informational activity: a tool for improved support of livestock farming management

Farmers have been slow to adopt decision support system (DSS) models and their outputs, mainly owing to (i) the complexity of the data involved, which most potential users are unable to collect and process; and (ii) inability to integrate these models into real representations of their informational environments. This situation raises questions about the way farm management researchers have modelled information and information management, and especially about the quality of the information assessed by the farmers. We consider that to review advisory procedures we need to understand how farmers select and use farm management-related information, rather than focusing on decisions made in particular situations. The aim of this study was to build a conceptual model of the farmer-targeted farm management-related information system. This model was developed using data collected in commercial beef cattle farms. The design structure and operational procedures are based on (i) data categories representing the diversity of the informational activity; and (ii) selected criteria for supporting decisions. The model is composed of two subsystems, each composed of two units. First, an organizational subsystem organizes, finalizes and monitors informational activity. Second, a processing subsystem builds and exploits the informational resources. This conceptual model makes it possible to describe and understand the diverse range of farmers' informational activity by taking into account both the flow of information and the way farmers make sense of that information. This model could serve as a component of biodecisional DSS models for assigning information in the decision-making process. The next task will be to take into account the broad range of farmers' perceptions of the management situations in DSS models.     

The economic determinants of land degradation in developing countries

The following paper investigates the economic determinants of land degradation in developing countries. The main trends examined are rural households'' decisions to degrade as opposed to conserve land resources, and the expansion of frontier agricultural activity that contributes to forest and marginal land conversion. These two phenomena appear often to be linked. In many developing areas, a poor rural household''s decision whether to undertake long-term investment in improving existing agricultural land must be weighed against the decision to abandon this land and migrate to environmentally fragile areas. Economic factors play a critical role in determining these relationships. Poverty, imperfect capital markets and insecure land tenure may reinforce the tendency towards short-term time horizons in production decisions, and may bias land use decisions against long-term land management strategies. In periods of commodity booms and land speculation, wealthier households generally take advantage of their superior political and market power to ensure initial access to better quality resources, in order to capture a larger share of the resource rents. Poorer households are confined either to marginal environmental areas where resource rents are limited, or only have access to resources once they are degraded and rents dissipated.<br>Overall trends in land degradation and deforestation are examined, followed by an overview of rural households'' resource management decisions with respect to land management, frontier agricultural expansion, and migration from existing agricultural land to frontiers. Finally, the discussion focuses on the scope for policy improvements to reduce economic constraints to effective land management. <br>     

粤港澳大湾区城市群生态系统智能化管理

开展生态系统数字化、信息化、智能化管理,全面提升粤港澳大湾区生态环境质量,是建设国际一流湾区的必然趋势。以城市群生态系统智能化管理为目标,系统整合各类生态环境相关数据资源,形成生态系统管理数据和决策支撑体系,并以此为基础构建生态智能管理平台。研究以生态系统要素和功能管理逻辑为核心,构建了生态系统管理业务流程：（1）精准剖析生态环境问题,确定问题发生的尺度、范围并对其进行分类和定性;（2）确立生态管理目标,制定适宜的管理策略;（3）根据现状与基线进行生态系统服务权衡,通过生态管理恢复工程提升生态系统质量;（4）通过环境物联网监测生态系统变化,及时调整和改进生态系统管理计划。针对城市群生态系统多尺度、多层次、复杂化等特点,在制定管理决策时应充分权衡管理目标和生态服务,兼顾各类生态系统服务效益;需通过示范性生态工程印证管理方案的可行性、适用性和协同性;以趋善化理念为指导思想,不断优化调整生态管理目标;同时在管理活动实施的过程中不断积累、凝练、总结所获得的反馈信息和经验。面向生态管理体制和管理能力的现代化提升需求,融合大数据、地理信息系统（GIS）、全球广域网络（Web）等信息化技术,构建粤港澳大湾区生态管理智能平台,实现多主体信息共享,打破管理决策的"黑箱",为推进生态环境管理现代化提供可靠可行的方案。构建的生态系统管理业务流程和管理策略,将知识充分融入管理决策的制定流程,能服务于粤港澳大湾区的生态文明建设,推动可持续和高质量发展。     

Can ecological land classification increase the utility of vegetation monitoring data?

Vegetation dynamics in rangelands and other ecosystems are known to be mediated by topoedaphic properties. Vegetation monitoring programs, however, often do not consider the impact of soils and other sources of landscape heterogeneity on the temporal patterns observed. Ecological sites (ES) comprise a land classification system based on soil, topographic, and climate variations that can be readily applied by land managers to classify topoedaphic properties at monitoring locations. We used a long-term (>40 y) vegetation record from southeastern Arizona, USA to test the utility of an ES classification for refining interpretations of monitoring data in an area of relatively subtle soil differences. We focused on two phenomena important to rangeland management in the southeastern Arizona region: expansion of the native tree velvet mesquite (Prosopis velutina Woot.) and spread of the introduced perennial grass Lehmann lovegrass (Eragrostis lehmanniana Nees). Specifically, we sought to determine if a quantitative, ES-specific analysis of the long-term record would (1) improve detection of changes in plant species having heightened ecological or management importance and (2) further clarify topoedaphic effects on vegetation trajectories. We found that ES class membership was a significant factor explaining spatiotemporal variation in velvet mesquite canopy cover, Lehmann lovegrass basal cover, and Lehmann lovegrass density measurements. In addition, we observed that the potential magnitude of velvet mesquite and Lehmann lovegrass increases varied substantially among ES classes. Our study brings attention to a practical land management tool that might be called upon to increase the effectiveness of vegetation-based indicators of ecosystem change.     

GLAMS: A Graphical Method for Capturing Land and Water Management Practices in Agroecosystems

Abstract Modification of native ecosystems through land use can affect the biophysical functioning of agroecosystems, with spatial arrangement (configuration) through time often determining the degree to which landscapes experience dysfunctional states. An improved understanding is needed of how spatial and temporal patterns in land use affect ecohydrological dysfunctions, such as how landscapes leak or fail to retain water and soil, at scales relevant to farm management. We develop and apply a Graphical LAndscape Map Survey method, or ‘GLAMS’, for measuring changes in landscape function based upon a 3D graphic of a hypothetical sub-catchment. GLAMS was applied within four Landcare Groups comprised of farmers from the Western Catchments of Southeast Queensland, Australia. The aim was to capture the behaviors of farmers who manage land use under natural variations in precipitation, especially extended dry periods, and with the associated risks from ecohydrologically dysfunctional or ‘leaky’ landscapes. GLAMS provided variable spatial and temporal resolution which allowed quantification of the land use responses for three different property sizes: (1) small, less than 100 ha; (2) medium, 100–500 ha; and (3) large, larger than 500 ha. Responses were quantified using Bayesian Belief Networks to provide probability estimates of the likelihood of a given action, taking place within a particular part of the landscape, considering both climatic and ecohydrological risks. The findings indicated that GLAMS was more intuitive to farmers than traditional question-based surveys, resulting in a low cost technique that is rapid to implement while providing spatially explicit information relevant to farm and catchment management.     

Use of ecosystem information derived from forest thematic maps for spatial analysis of ecosystem services in northwestern Spain

A clear link between ecosystem services (ES) and human well-being has been established in the recent decades. Thus, forests are recognised as extremely important ecosystems in relation to their capacity to provide goods and services to society. Nevertheless, this capacity greatly depends on the type of forest and on the management applied. Some types of data often used for this type of analysis, such as land use/land cover maps produced for general purposes, are not always appropriate for representing forest ecosystems and the services they offer. In this study, we used a forest map (Spanish National Forest Map: scale 1:25,000) and information describing composition and structure to assess six services closely associated with forest ecosystems in a forest-dominated zone of northwestern Spain on a regional scale. The following ES were considered: provision of food (basically fruits), provision of materials (timber and pulp), provision of biomass for energy (firewood), climate regulation (carbon storage by above-ground biomass), erosion regulation (protection against erosion), and cultural (recreational use and nature tourism). By combining information about tree species and cover with forest harvest data and other statistics, we established representative spatial models for the six ES representing different categories of the potential supply of each one. The six models were analysed by different methods (Spearman’s correlation, Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi*), enabling detection of hotspots and coldspots and the characteristic spatial scales for ES supply. The combined use of highly detailed map data, nonspatial databases and spatial analysis yielded accurate ES supply assessment.     

Towards protecting the Great Barrier Reef from land‐based pollution

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is an iconic coral reef system extending over 2000 km along the north‐east coast of Australia. Global recognition of its Outstanding Universal Value resulted in the listing of the 348 000 km² GBR World Heritage Area (WHA) by UNESCO in 1981. Despite various levels of national and international protection, the condition of GBR ecosystems has deteriorated over the past decades, with land‐based pollution from the adjacent catchments being a major and ongoing cause for this decline. To reduce land‐based pollution, the Australian and Queensland Governments have implemented a range of policy initiatives since 2003. Here, we evaluate the effectiveness of existing initiatives to reduce discharge of land‐based pollutants into the waters of the GBR. We conclude that recent efforts in the GBR catchments to reduce land‐based pollution are unlikely to be sufficient to protect the GBR ecosystems from declining water quality within the aspired time frames. To support management decisions for desired ecological outcomes for the GBR WHA, we identify potential improvements to current policies and incentives, as well as potential changes to current agricultural land use, based on overseas experiences and Australia's unique potential. The experience in the GBR may provide useful guidance for the management of other marine ecosystems, as reducing land‐based pollution by better managing agricultural sources is a challenge for coastal communities around the world.     

Land Transitions in the Tropics: Going Beyond the Case Studies

Estimates of the percent of Earth's land surface that has either been transformed or degraded by human activity range between 39 and 50 percent, with agriculture accounting for the vast majority of these changes. Although much of the focus of research on land use and cover change in the tropics has been on deforestation, ongoing socioeconomic changes both locally and globally have made land transitions in the tropics extremely fluid. In addition, feedbacks between land cover change and human behavior constrain the extent and trajectories of land transitions. The sustainability of land use systems in the tropics depends on an understanding of coupled human–natural systems that can lead to general frameworks for management and prediction. The unprecedented availability of land use/cover data together with ecological data collected at large spatial scales offer exciting opportunities for advancing our understanding of socioecological systems. We rely on six studies of land transitions in the tropics to illustrate some promising approaches and pose critical questions to guide this body of research.     

Positive feedbacks in seagrass ecosystems--evidence from large-scale empirical data

Positive feedbacks cause a nonlinear response of ecosystems to environmental change and may even cause bistability. Even though the importance of feedback mechanisms has been demonstrated for many types of ecosystems, their identification and quantification is still difficult. Here, we investigated whether positive feedbacks between seagrasses and light conditions are likely in seagrass ecosystems dominated by the temperate seagrass Zostera marina. We applied a combination of multiple linear regression and structural equation modeling (SEM) on a dataset containing 83 sites scattered across Western Europe. Results confirmed that a positive feedback between sediment conditions, light conditions and seagrass density is likely to exist in seagrass ecosystems. This feedback indicated that seagrasses are able to trap and stabilize suspended sediments, which in turn improves water clarity and seagrass growth conditions. Furthermore, our analyses demonstrated that effects of eutrophication on light conditions, as indicated by surface water total nitrogen, were on average at least as important as sediment conditions. This suggests that in general, eutrophication might be the most important factor controlling seagrasses in sheltered estuaries, while the seagrass-sediment-light feedback is a dominant mechanism in more exposed areas. Our study demonstrates the potentials of SEM to identify and quantify positive feedbacks mechanisms for ecosystems and other complex systems.     

黄土高原农户生计转型及其生态效应——以陕西省佳县为例

在乡村地域系统人地关系日趋复杂的情况下,农户生计活动与生态环境之间的关系已成为生态效应研究的核心。本文以陕西省佳县为研究区,结合遥感影像、GIS技术和实地调研获取的微观数据,对1990年以来典型生态脆弱区农户生计对生态环境的影响进行长时序动态监测和分析,从农户种植结构、收入结构和劳动力要素投入结构对农户生计类型和乡村发展类型进行界定,分析农户生计转型过程和特征,基于土地利用分析生境质量时空变化,以生境质量为媒介分析农户生计转型的生态效应。主要结论如下：(1)佳县农户类型和乡村类型演化特征显著。从农户尺度上看,农户生计类型从以粮食主导型为主,逐渐演化为非农主导型为主粮食主导型为辅的组合模式。从乡村类型上看,传统农业型和新型农业型均逐渐演化为非农业型。(2)农户生计转型路径由多元化逐渐转向单一非农化发展,不同农户生计转型过程存在差异,按照转型路径特征可分为4类：持续稳定型、渐进型、调整型和倒退型。(3)生境退化度呈下降态势,从退化等级上看,无退化、轻度退化和中度退化等级面积增加,高度退化等级面积减少,严重退化等级面积降低为0。生境质量呈波动上升态势,从等级上看,占主导的为优等和较差等级,且...     

A continent under stress: interactions, feedbacks and risks associated with impact of modified land cover on Australia's climate

Global climate change is the major and most urgent global environmental issue. Australia is already experiencing climate change as evidenced by higher temperatures and more frequent and severe droughts. These impacts are compounded by increasing land use pressures on natural resources and native ecosystems. This paper provides a synthesis of the interactions, feedbacks and risks of natural climate variability, climate change and land use/land cover change (LUCC) impacting on the Australian continent and how they vary regionally. We review evidence of climate change and underlying processes resulting from interactions between global warming caused by increased concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases and modification of the land surface. The consequences of ignoring the effect of LUCC on current and future droughts in Australia could have catastrophic consequences for the nation's environment, economy and communities. We highlight the need for more integrated, long-term and adaptive policies and regional natural resource management strategies that restore the beneficial feedbacks between native vegetation cover and local-regional climate, to help ameliorate the impact of global warming.