Ecological Network Indicators of Ecosystem Status and Change in the Baltic Sea

Several marine ecosystems under anthropogenic pressure have experienced shifts from one ecological state to another. In the central Baltic Sea, the regime shift of the 1980s has been associated with food-web reorganization and redirection of energy flow pathways. These long-term dynamics from 1974 to 2006 have been simulated here using a food-web model forced by climate and fishing. Ecological network analysis was performed to calculate indices of ecosystem change. The model replicated the regime shift. The analyses of indicators suggested that the system’s resilience was higher prior to 1988 and lower thereafter. The ecosystem topology also changed from a web-like structure to a linearized food-web.     

Migration Amidst Social-Ecological Regime Shift: The Search for Stability in Garífuna Villages of Northern Honduras

Environmental migration, in its different forms, is an aspiration toward stability domains amidst dynamic system change. This paper assesses critical system relationships that couple human and natural systems and change in due course of a regime shift affecting Garífuna villages in Northern Honduras. The specified resilience of these relationships influences the course that migration takes after a flooding event. In impacted villages, migration is a mechanism for demographic fragmentation, ‘downgrades’ livelihood chains, and reinforces a class divide. Villages systems that experience a shift to uninhabitable and unproductive state spaces become shallow stability domains and consequently, perpetual exporters of migrants over an extended period of time. In the end, migration itself is a cascading aspect of a regime shift that is both ecological and social, forced and chosen.     

浅水湖泊生态系统稳态转换的阈值判定方法

浅水湖泊生态系统对人类干扰的反应会随着干扰力度的改变或增强而出现突然的变化,即发生稳态转换;对其机理和驱动机制的揭示将有助于对湖泊富营养化的控制及恢复.基于“多稳态”理论的稳态转换研究已广泛开展,但对浅水湖泊生态系统稳态转换的驱动机制结论各异,采用的阈值判定方法相差很大,主要有实验观测、模型模拟和统计分析3种.实验观测多关注少数特定指标,指标筛选过程复杂且工作量大;模型模拟虽能从较为全面的尺度上理解生态系统稳态变化的特征和主要机理过程,但在模型误差和不确定性的处理等问题上尚存在不足;统计分析方法基于对长时间序列数据的统计变化规律分析,用以判断或者预警稳态转换现象的发生,是目前最为常用的方法.目前稳态转换领域的研究大都是对已发生的稳态转换进行机制分析或过程反演,对未来预测与预警的问题仍然亟需加强.     

Evidence of climate‐driven regime shifts in the Aegean Sea’s demersal resources: A study spanning six decades

Climate change (CC) can alter the configuration of marine ecosystems; however, ecosystem response and resilience to change are usually case‐specific. The effect of CC on the demersal resources of the Aegean Sea (east Mediterranean Sea) was investigated during the past six decades applying a combination of multivariate analysis, non‐additive modeling and the Integrated Resilience Assessment (IRA) framework. We focused on the study of: (i) the biological “system” complex, using proxies of biomass (landings per unit of capacity) for 12 demersal taxa, and (ii) the environmental “stressor” complex, described by 12 abiotic variables. Pronounced changes have occurred in both the environmental and biological system over the studied period. The majority of the environmental stressors exhibited strikingly increasing trends (temperature, salinity, primary production indices) with values started exceeding the global historical means during late 1980s‐early 1990s. It is suggested that the biological system exhibited a discontinuous response to CC, with two apparently climate‐induced regime shifts occurring in the past 25 years. There is evidence for two‐fold bifurcations and four tipping points in the system, forming a folded stability landscape with three basins of attraction. The shape of the stability landscape for the Aegean Sea''s biological system suggests that while the initial state (1966–1991) was rather resilient to CC, absorbing two environmental step‐changes, this was not the case for the two subsequent ones (intermediate: 1992–2002; recent: 2003–2016). Given the current trajectory of environmental change, it is highly unlikely that the biological system will ever return to its pre‐1990s state, as it is entering areas of unprecedented climatic conditions and there is some evidence that the system may be even shifting toward a new state. Our approach and findings may be relevant to other marine areas of the Mediterranean and beyond, undergoing climate‐driven regime shifts, and can assist to their adaptive management.     

Change in a lake benthic community over a century: evidence for alternative community states

Aquatic communities are one of the most studied systems where alternative states or regime shifts have been detected. We used data spanning a century of time to test whether the zoobenthic community of Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA, was relatively stable through time, variable, or whether there was any evidence of alternative community states. We used multivariate statistical analyses to test for community structure similarity and whether detected differences corresponded to major changes in the local environment. Surprisingly, the benthic community in Lake Mendota was not statistically different from the mid 1960s to the present. Similarly, the benthic community was not significantly different from 1914 to the 1950s. However, between the 1950s and mid 1960s there was a dramatic change in the zoobenthic community, including the loss of key taxa and a decrease in the diversity of several major taxa. This dramatic change cannot be attributed to any single environmental factor, and is correlated with multiple factors acting simultaneously, including increased urban development, human population density, intensive agriculture, and the introduction of a major invasive species, Eurasian watermilfoil. The long-term similarity in the benthic community before and after the shift suggests two alternative states that switched with the confluence of multiple stressors.     

Methane emissions from floodplain swamps of the Ogeechee River: long-term patterns and effects of climate change

Patterns and rates of wetland methane emissions and their sensitivity to potential climate change are critical components of the global methane cycle. In this study, we use empirical simulation models to investigate these processes in floodplain swamps of the Ogeechee River in Georgia, U.S.A. We developed statistical models that relate methane emissions to monthly climate and river flow based on field observations of methane emissions from this system made during 1987–1989. Models were then applied to observed climate and hydrograph for 1937–1989 and to simulated altered climates. Altered climates were generated from the present-day climate by changing monthly temperatures by a constant amount and/or changing monthly precipitation by a constant proportion, thus altering long-term averages and preserving year-to-year variation.Under the present-day climate regime, simulated methane emissions were variable between years and responded very strongly to changes in river discharge. The long-term average was 27 g C m^-2 yr^-1, with no significant linear trend over the model period. In the altered climate simulations, methane emissions were very sensitive to changes in precipitation amounts, with a 20% decrease in rainfall resulting in 30–43% declines in methane emissions. Predicted effects of temperature changes on methane emissions were less consistent, and were strongly dependent on assumptions made about the response of evapotranspiration to elevated temperatures. In general, hydrologic impacts of changes in evapotranspiration rates (such as may occur in response to temperature shifts) were more important than direct temperature effects on methane production.     

Precipitation Regime Shift Enhanced the Rain Pulse Effect on Soil Respiration in a Semi-Arid Steppe

The effect of resource pulses, such as rainfall events, on soil respiration plays an important role in controlling grassland carbon balance, but how shifts in long-term precipitation regime regulate rain pulse effect on soil respiration is still unclear. We first quantified the influence of rainfall event on soil respiration based on a two-year (2006 and 2009) continuously measured soil respiration data set in a temperate steppe in northern China. In 2006 and 2009, soil carbon release induced by rainfall events contributed about 44.5% (83.3 g C m⁻²) and 39.6% (61.7 g C m⁻²) to the growing-season total soil respiration, respectively. The pulse effect of rainfall event on soil respiration can be accurately predicted by a water status index (WSI), which is the product of rainfall event size and the ratio between antecedent soil temperature to moisture at the depth of 10 cm (r ² = 0.92, P<0.001) through the growing season. It indicates the pulse effect can be enhanced by not only larger individual rainfall event, but also higher soil temperature/moisture ratio which is usually associated with longer dry spells. We then analyzed a long-term (1953–2009) precipitation record in the experimental area. We found both the extreme heavy rainfall events (>40 mm per event) and the long dry-spells (>5 days) during the growing seasons increased from 1953–2009. It suggests the shift in precipitation regime has increased the contribution of rain pulse effect to growing-season total soil respiration in this region. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating precipitation regime shift and its impacts on the rain pulse effect into the future predictions of grassland carbon cycle under climate change.     

Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.     

Inter-annual patterns in macroinvertebrate communities of wilderness streams in Idaho, U.S.A.

This study examined the inter-annual variation in macroinvertebrate assemblages in six wilderness streams in central Idaho over a 6-year period (1990–1995). Benthic macroinvertebrates and associated environmental correlates were sampled during baseflow each summer. Little environmental change, as assessed using coefficients of variation (CVs) for substrate size and embeddedness, width, depth and periphyton standing crops, occurred in the streams over the period of study. There was also little temporal change in macroinvertebrate assemblages based on the relative abundance of the 10 most abundant taxa, all shredder taxa and all plecopteran taxa. CVs for individual taxa were substantially greater than those of most community measures, with rare taxa contributing 30–50% of the variation for any one stream. Frequency distributions for taxa CVs excluding rare taxa were more normally distributed. Differences in assemblage structure among streams were attributed to stream size (shift in shredder assemblages) and temperature (shift in plecopteran taxa). These data indicate a long-term (multi-year) persistence in the macroinvertebrate composition of these pristine streams, thus supporting the premise that such streams are excellent references for use in long-term biomonitoring programs.     

生态系统稳态转换检测研究进展

在气候变化、人类活动等影响下,生态系统结构和功能可能发生大规模的突变,导致生态系统从一个相对稳定的状态进入另一个稳定状态,这种现象称为稳态转换。由于生态系统的复杂性,准确刻画生态系统多稳态并界定其临界点尚存在挑战,提升对生态系统稳态转换的检测和预测能力依旧是生态学领域研究的热点和难题。基于多稳态理论和稳态转换经典概念框架,阐释了稳态转换检测的理论基础;归纳总结出四种稳态转换检测方法的原理和优劣势;鉴于稳态转换的尺度依赖性,梳理了单一生态系统、区域综合生态系统和全球生态系统不同尺度下的稳态转换检测方法、研究思路和应用案例。基于研究进展和问题现状,提出在未来研究中,亟待发展适应复杂系统的综合检测方法;创新稳态转换多尺度分析的技术方法体系;深化生态系统稳态转换驱动机制研究,构建多元耦合机理模型;进而深化稳态转换检测结果链接生态系统管理的实践研究;解析生态系统服务和可持续发展机制。     

Bumblebees moving up: shifts in elevation ranges in the Pyrenees over 115 years

In a warming climate, species are expected to shift their geographical ranges to higher elevations and latitudes, and if interacting species shift at different rates, networks may be disrupted. To quantify the effects of ongoing climate change, repeating historical biodiversity surveys is necessary. In this study, we compare the distribution of a plant–pollinator community between two surveys 115 years apart (1889 and 2005–06), reporting distribution patterns and changes observed for bumblebee species and bumblebee-visited plants in the Gavarnie-Gèdre commune in the Pyrenees, located in southwest Europe at the French–Spanish border. The region has warmed significantly over this period, alongside shifts in agricultural land use and forest. The composition of the bumblebee community shows relative stability, but we observed clear shifts to higher elevations for bumblebees (averaging 129 m) and plants (229 m) and provide preliminary evidence that some bumblebee species shift with the plants they visit. We also observe that some species have been able to occupy the same climate range in both periods by shifting elevation range. The results suggest the need for long-term monitoring to determine the role and impact of the different drivers of global change, especially in montane habitats where the impacts of climate changes are anticipated to be more extreme.     

Projecting Range Limits with Coupled Thermal Tolerance - Climate Change Models: An Example Based on Gray Snapper (Lutjanus griseus) along the U.S. East Coast

We couple a species range limit hypothesis with the output of an ensemble of general circulation models to project the poleward range limit of gray snapper. Using laboratory-derived thermal limits and statistical downscaling from IPCC AR4 general circulation models, we project that gray snapper will shift northwards; the magnitude of this shift is dependent on the magnitude of climate change. We also evaluate the uncertainty in our projection and find that statistical uncertainty associated with the experimentally-derived thermal limits is the largest contributor (∼ 65%) to overall quantified uncertainty. This finding argues for more experimental work aimed at understanding and parameterizing the effects of climate change and variability on marine species.     

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change‐point analysis and a sequential t‐test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.     

Environmental gradients of selection for an alpine-obligate bird,the white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura)

The warming climate will expose alpine species adapted to a highly seasonal, harsh environment to novel environmental conditions. A species can shift their distribution, acclimate, or adapt in response to a new climate. Alpine species have little suitable habitat to shift their distribution, and the limits of acclimation will likely be tested by climate change in the long-term. Adaptive genetic variation may provide the raw material for species to adapt to this changing environment. Here, we use a genomic approach to describe adaptive divergence in an alpine-obligate species, the white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), a species distributed from Alaska to New Mexico, across an environmentally variable geographic range. Previous work has identified genetic structure and morphological, behavioral, and physiological differences across the species’ range; however, those studies were unable to determine the degree to which adaptive divergence is correlated with local variation in environmental conditions. We used a genome-wide dataset generated from 95 white-tailed ptarmigan distributed throughout the species’ range and genotype–environment association analyses to identify the genetic signature and environmental drivers of local adaptation. We detected associations between multiple environmental gradients and candidate adaptive loci, suggesting ptarmigan populations may be locally adapted to the plant community composition, elevation, local climate, and to the seasonality of the environment. Overall, our results suggest there may be groups within the species’ range with genetic variation that could be essential for adapting to a changing climate and helpful in guiding conservation action.Subject terms: Ecological genetics, Evolutionary ecology     

Late Holocene regime shifts in moorland ecosystems: high resolution data from the Pennines,UK

Identifying critical shifts in ecosystems caused by human impacts has become a priority for understanding resilience to change and setting realistic landscape management goals. Previous work suggests that many British blanket peats have suffered a loss of functional integrity over recent centuries, but it is unclear whether all moorland habitats are equally vulnerable. This study examines the relative sensitivity of four contrasting moorland communities to historic land-use changes and assesses whether these management pressures are pushing some moorlands beyond their Holocene range of variability. Late Holocene dynamics in the Peak District, northern England, were investigated using high resolution pollen, fungal spore and charcoal data, and multivariate analyses. All sites show high Calluna values during the 19th century and converge on local Poaceae dominance during the 20th century. This involved a shift from gradual or cyclical variability and moderate changes in pollen abundance during preceding centuries, to rapid transitions between mono-dominant pollen assemblages and a functional shift to taxa with competitive traits; these are interpreted as a regime shift. Evidence for the recent recovery of dwarf shrubs and Sphagnum is strong at one site, with slight evidence from two others, but disturbance could push the system back to grass dominance. The deep blanket peat site may have crossed a threshold, leading to a persistent grass dominated state. Studying regime shifts on decadal to centennial scales can help bridge the gap between ecology and palaeoecology by providing a robust basis for assessing vulnerability, setting restoration priorities and managing novel peatland states.     

Long-term repeated burning reduces Lantana camara regeneration in a dry eucalypt forest

Previous short-term studies predict that the use of fire to manage lantana (Lantana camara) may promote its abundance. We tested this prediction by examining long-term recruitment patterns of lantana in a dry eucalypt forest in Australia from 1959 to 2007 in three fire frequency treatments: repeated annual burning, repeated triennial burning and long unburnt. The dataset was divided into two periods (1959–1972, 1974–2007) due to logging that occurred at the study site between 1972 and 1974 and the establishment of the triennial burn treatment in 1973. Our results showed that repeated burning decreased lantana regeneration under an annual burn regime in the pre- and post-logging periods and maintained low levels of regeneration in the triennial burn compartment during the post-logging period. In the absence of fire, lantana recruitment exhibited a dome-shaped response over time, with the total population peaking in 1982 before declining to 2007. In addition to fire regime, soil pH and carbon to nitrogen ratio, the density of taller conspecifics and the interaction between rainfall and fire regime were found to influence lantana regeneration change over time. The results suggest that the reported positive association between fire disturbance and abundance of lantana does not hold for all forest types and that fire should be considered as part of an integrated weed management strategy for lantana in more fire-tolerant ecosystems.     

Climate-driven range expansion of a critically endangered top predator in northeast Atlantic waters

Global climate change is driving rapid distribution shifts in marine ecosystems; these are well established for lower trophic levels, but are harder to quantify for migratory top predators. By analysing a 25-year sightings-based dataset, we found evidence for rapid northwards range expansion of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus in northeast Atlantic waters. A 0.6 degrees C sea surface temperature increase in the mid-1990s is interpreted as an underlying controlling factor, while simultaneous northward shifts of plankton and prey fish species suggests a strong bottom-up control. Our results have important conservation implications and provide new evidence for climate-driven regime shift in Atlantic ecosystems.     

Reinterpreting two regime shifts in North Sea plankton communities through the lens of functional traits

Aim

The so-called regime shifts in North Sea plankton communities provide an important historical case study to understand marine regime shifts. Previous studies characterized regime shifts using a variety of community metrics (e.g., indicator species abundances, taxonomic composition and chlorophyll biomass) but left the functional traits of plankton unassessed. Here, we explicitly re-assess the historically recognized North Sea regime shifts through the lens of plankton functional traits to gain a better understanding of these events.

Location

The North Sea (NW European shelf).

Time period

1958–2018, focusing on the 1980s and 1996–2003 regime shifts.

Major taxa studied

Marine phyto- and zooplankton.

Methods

We compute trait spaces for both phyto- and zooplankton of the North Sea using traits from the literature and a Gower's distance-based method. Using abundance data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey, we then compute monthly time series of the centroids of the communities, an indicator of functional composition. We then use principal component analysis on the centroids to assess the main temporal changes in plankton functional composition associated with the 1980s and 1996–2003 regime shifts.

Results

Little change in plankton functional composition was associated with the 1980s regime shift. In contrast, the functional composition of plankton communities changed markedly after the 1996–2003 regime shift, with an increase in the summer relative abundance of non-motile autotrophs (i.e., diatoms) and the spring relative abundance of meroplankton.

Main conclusions

The North Sea regime shifts were not associated systematically with changes in functional composition, calling into question the definition of regime shifts and illustrating the importance of taking different metrics into account to interpret ecological events accurately. Taking into account functional composition, we interpret the 1980s so-called regime shift as a latitudinal shift in communities that was insufficient to impact functional composition and the 1996–2003 so-called regime shift as a period of change in bentho-pelagic coupling.     

Disentangling the Spatio-Environmental Drivers of Human Settlement: An Eigenvector Based Variation Decomposition

The relative importance of deterministic and stochastic processes driving patterns of human settlement remains controversial. A main reason for this is that disentangling the drivers of distributions and geographic clustering at different spatial scales is not straightforward and powerful analytical toolboxes able to deal with this type of data are largely deficient. Here we use a multivariate statistical framework originally developed in community ecology, to infer the relative importance of spatial and environmental drivers of human settlement. Using Moran’s eigenvector maps and a dataset of spatial variation in a set of relevant environmental variables we applied a variation partitioning procedure based on redundancy analysis models to assess the relative importance of spatial and environmental processes explaining settlement patterns. We applied this method on an archaeological dataset covering a 15 km² area in SW Turkey spanning a time period of 8000 years from the Late Neolithic/Early Chalcolithic up to the Byzantine period. Variation partitioning revealed both significant unique and commonly explained effects of environmental and spatial variables. Land cover and water availability were the dominant environmental determinants of human settlement throughout the study period, supporting the theory of the presence of farming communities. Spatial clustering was mainly restricted to small spatial scales. Significant spatial clustering independent of environmental gradients was also detected which can be indicative of expansion into unsuitable areas or an unexpected absence in suitable areas which could be caused by dispersal limitation. Integrating historic settlement patterns as additional predictor variables resulted in more explained variation reflecting temporal autocorrelation in settlement locations.