Probabilistic methods outperform parsimony in the phylogenetic analysis of data simulated without a probabilistic model

To understand patterns and processes of the diversification of life, we require an accurate understanding of taxon interrelationships. Recent studies have suggested that analyses of morphological character data using the Bayesian and maximum likelihood Mk model provide phylogenies of higher accuracy compared to parsimony methods. This has proved controversial, particularly studies simulating morphology‐data under Markov models that assume shared branch lengths for characters, as it is claimed this leads to bias favouring the Bayesian or maximum likelihood Mk model over parsimony models which do not explicitly make this assumption. We avoid these potential issues by employing a simulation protocol in which character states are randomly assigned to tips, but datasets are constrained to an empirically realistic distribution of homoplasy as measured by the consistency index. Datasets were analysed with equal weights and implied weights parsimony, and the maximum likelihood and Bayesian Mk model. We find that consistent (low homoplasy) datasets render method choice largely irrelevant, as all methods perform well with high consistency (low homoplasy) datasets, but the largest discrepancies in accuracy occur with low consistency datasets (high homoplasy). In such cases, the Bayesian Mk model is significantly more accurate than alternative models and implied weights parsimony never significantly outperforms the Bayesian Mk model. When poorly supported branches are collapsed, the Bayesian Mk model recovers trees with higher resolution compared to other methods. As it is not possible to assess homoplasy independently of a tree estimate, the Bayesian Mk model emerges as the most reliable approach for categorical morphological analyses.     

Weighted parsimony outperforms other methods of phylogenetic inference under models appropriate for morphology

One of the lasting controversies in phylogenetic inference is the degree to which specific evolutionary models should influence the choice of methods. Model‐based approaches to phylogenetic inference (likelihood, Bayesian) are defended on the premise that without explicit statistical models there is no science, and parsimony is defended on the grounds that it provides the best rationalization of the data, while refraining from assigning specific probabilities to trees or character‐state reconstructions. Authors who favour model‐based approaches often focus on the statistical properties of the methods and models themselves, but this is of only limited use in deciding the best method for phylogenetic inference—such decision also requires considering the conditions of evolution that prevail in nature. Another approach is to compare the performance of parsimony and model‐based methods in simulations, which traditionally have been used to defend the use of models of evolution for DNA sequences. Some recent papers, however, have promoted the use of model‐based approaches to phylogenetic inference for discrete morphological data as well. These papers simulated data under models already known to be unfavourable to parsimony, and modelled morphological evolution as if it evolved just like DNA, with probabilities of change for all characters changing in concert along tree branches. The present paper discusses these issues, showing that under reasonable and less restrictive models of evolution for discrete characters, equally weighted parsimony performs as well or better than model‐based methods, and that parsimony under implied weights clearly outperforms all other methods.     

Phylogenetic relationships of woodcreepers (Aves: Dendrocolaptinae) – incongruence between molecular and morphological data

The woodcreepers is a highly specialized lineage within the New World suboscine radiation. Most systematic studies of higher level relationships of this group rely on morphological characters, and few studies utilizing molecular data exist. In this paper, we present a molecular phylogeny of the major lineages of woodcreepers (Aves: Dendrocolaptinae), based on nucleotide sequence data from a nuclear non-coding gene region (myoglobin intron II) and a protein-coding mitochondrial gene (cytochrome b ). A good topological agreement between the individual gene trees suggests that the resulting phylogeny reflects the true evolutionary history of woodcreepers well. However, the DNA-based phylogeny conflicts with the results of a parsimony analysis of morphological characters. The topological differences mainly concern the basal branches of the trees. The morphological data places the genus Drymornis in a basal position (mainly supported by characters in the hindlimb), while our data suggests it to be derived among woodcreepers. Unlike most other woodcreepers, Drymornis is ground-adapted, as are the ovenbirds. The observed morphological similarities between Drymornis and the ovenbird outgroup may thus be explained with convergence or with reversal to an ancestral state. This observation raises the question of the use of characters associated with locomotion and feeding in phylogenetic reconstruction based on parsimony.     

Inconsistency of phylogenetic estimates from concatenated data under coalescence

Although multiple gene sequences are becoming increasingly available for molecular phylogenetic inference, the analysis of such data has largely relied on inference methods designed for single genes. One of the common approaches to analyzing data from multiple genes is concatenation of the individual gene data to form a single supergene to which traditional phylogenetic inference procedures - e.g., maximum parsimony (MP) or maximum likelihood (ML) - are applied. Recent empirical studies have demonstrated that concatenation of sequences from multiple genes prior to phylogenetic analysis often results in inference of a single, well-supported phylogeny. Theoretical work, however, has shown that the coalescent can produce substantial variation in single-gene histories. Using simulation, we combine these ideas to examine the performance of the concatenation approach under conditions in which the coalescent produces a high level of discord among individual gene trees and show that it leads to statistically inconsistent estimation in this setting. Furthermore, use of the bootstrap to measure support for the inferred phylogeny can result in moderate to strong support for an incorrect tree under these conditions. These results highlight the importance of incorporating variation in gene histories into multilocus phylogenetics.     

SuperFine: fast and accurate supertree estimation

Many research groups are estimating trees containing anywhere from a few thousands to hundreds of thousands of species, toward the eventual goal of the estimation of a Tree of Life, containing perhaps as many as several million leaves. These phylogenetic estimations present enormous computational challenges, and current computational methods are likely to fail to run even on data sets in the low end of this range. One approach to estimate a large species tree is to use phylogenetic estimation methods (such as maximum likelihood) on a supermatrix produced by concatenating multiple sequence alignments for a collection of markers; however, the most accurate of these phylogenetic estimation methods are extremely computationally intensive for data sets with more than a few thousand sequences. Supertree methods, which assemble phylogenetic trees from a collection of trees on subsets of the taxa, are important tools for phylogeny estimation where phylogenetic analyses based upon maximum likelihood (ML) are infeasible. In this paper, we introduce SuperFine, a meta-method that utilizes a novel two-step procedure in order to improve the accuracy and scalability of supertree methods. Our study, using both simulated and empirical data, shows that SuperFine-boosted supertree methods produce more accurate trees than standard supertree methods, and run quickly on very large data sets with thousands of sequences. Furthermore, SuperFine-boosted matrix representation with parsimony (MRP, the most well-known supertree method) approaches the accuracy of ML methods on supermatrix data sets under realistic conditions.     

Efficacy or convenience? Model‐based approaches to phylogeny estimation using morphological data

Model‐based approaches (e.g. maximum likelihood, Bayesian inference) are widely used with molecular data, where they might be more appropriate than maximum parsimony for estimating phylogenies under various models of molecular evolution. Recently, there has been an increase in the application of model‐based approaches with morphological (mainly fossil) data; however, there is some doubt as to the effectiveness of the model of morphological evolution. The input parameters (prior probabilities) for the model are unclear, particularly when concerned with unobserved character states. Despite this, some systematists are suggesting superiority of these model‐based methods over maximum parsimony based on, for example, increased resolution or, in the current study, the preferred phylogenetic placement of an iconic taxon. Here, we revisit a recently published analysis implying such superiority and document the discrepancies between parsimony‐based and model‐based approaches to phylogeny estimation. We find that although some taxa are shifted back to their “traditional” phylogenetic placement, other clades are disturbed. The model‐based phylogenies are better resolved; however, due to the lack of an appropriate model of morphological evolution, the increase in resolving power is probably not meaningful. Similarly, some of the preferred phylogenetic positions of taxa, particularly of labile taxa such as Archaeopteryx, are based solely on analyses employing maximum parsimony as the optimality criterion. Poor resolution and labile taxa indicate a need for further examination of the morphology and not a change in method.     

Toward a Better Understanding of the Phylogeny of the Asplanchnidae (Rotifera)

We investigated the phylogenetic relationships of Family Asplanchnidae using both morphological and molecular data. The morphological database, comprising 23 characters from 19 taxa (15 Asplanchnidae and 4 outgroups), was compiled from a survey of the literature and our own observations; the molecular data (ITS and V4 region nuclear regions and mitochondrial cox1) was sequenced from specimens that we collected. Our analysis of the morphological data set (maximum parsimony) yielded 12 most-parsimonious trees with a tree length of 27 steps. From this analysis we conclude (1) Asplanchnidae is a monophyletic group as are the three genera comprising it, (2) there is no compelling support for the argument that Asplanchna should be separated into two discrete genera, and (3) there is some support for the proposal that Asplanchnidae and Synchaetidae are sister groups. Our analysis of the molecular data set supports the first two of these conclusions while the sister group of the family varied depending on the gene region analyzed and families and genera included. Current understanding of the phylogeny of Asplanchnidae is hampered by the need for additional informative morphological characters and a lack of molecular data for the genus Harringia and several other members of the Asplanchnidae.     

Likelihood reinstates Archaeopteryx as a primitive bird

The widespread view that Archaeopteryx was a primitive (basal) bird has been recently challenged by a comprehensive phylogenetic analysis that placed Archaeopteryx with deinonychosaurian theropods. The new phylogeny suggested that typical bird flight (powered by the front limbs only) either evolved at least twice, or was lost/modified in some deinonychosaurs. However, this parsimony-based result was acknowledged to be weakly supported. Maximum-likelihood and related Bayesian methods applied to the same dataset yield a different and more orthodox result: Archaeopteryx is restored as a basal bird with bootstrap frequency of 73 per cent and posterior probability of 1. These results are consistent with a single origin of typical (forelimb-powered) bird flight. The Archaeopteryx-deinonychosaur clade retrieved by parsimony is supported by more characters (which are on average more homoplasious), whereas the Archaeopteryx-bird clade retrieved by likelihood-based methods is supported by fewer characters (but on average less homoplasious). Both positions for Archaeopteryx remain plausible, highlighting the hazy boundary between birds and advanced theropods. These results also suggest that likelihood-based methods (in addition to parsimony) can be useful in morphological phylogenetics.     

The phylogenetic relationships of the shags and cormorants: can sequence data resolve a disagreement between behavior and morphology?

Taxonomic arrangements for the cormorants and shags (Phalacrocoracidae) had varied greatly until two quite similar arrangements, one based on behavior and the other on osteological characters, became the basis for current thought on the evolutionary relationships of these birds. The terms cormorant and shag, which had previously been haphazardly applied to members of the group, became the vernacular terms for the two major subdivisions within this family. The two taxonomies differ in places, however, with the behavioral taxonomy placing several species within the shags and the osteological taxonomy and phylogeny grouping those species (as the marine cormorants) and placing them within the cormorants. In an attempt to resolve the differences in the relationships hypothesized by behavior and morphology, we sequenced three mitochondrial genes (12S, ATPase 6, and ATPase 8). Initial equally weighted parsimony trees differed slightly from our two weighted parsimony trees, one of which was also our maximum-likelihood tree. Many of the branches within our trees were well supported, but some sections of the phylogeny proved difficult to resolve with confidence. Our sequence trees differ substantially from the morphological phylogeny and show that neither the shags nor the cormorants are monophyletic, but form an intermingled group. Some of the groups supported by both the behavioral and the morphological taxonomies (e.g., the cliff shags, Stictocarbo) appear to be polyphyletic. Conversely, the monophyly of the blue-eyed shags, a traditional group that the osteological analysis had found to be paraphyletic, was supported by the sequence data. Until more taxa are sampled and a fully robust phylogeny is obtained, a conservative approach accepting a single genus, Phalacrocorax, for the shags and cormorants is recommended.     

Phylogenetics of the woodrat genus Neotoma (Rodentia: Muridae): implications for the evolution of phenotypic variation in male external genitalia

Interspecific morphological variation in animal genitalia has long attracted the attention of evolutionary biologists because of the role genital form may play in the generation and/or maintenance of species boundaries. Here we examine the origin and evolution of genital variation in rodents of the muroid genus Neotoma. We test the hypothesis that a relatively rare genital form has evolved only once in Neotoma. We use four mitochondrial and four nuclear markers to evaluate this hypothesis by establishing a phylogenetic framework in which to examine genital evolution. We find intron seven of the beta-fibrinogen gene to be a highly informative nuclear marker for the levels of differentiation that characterize Neotoma with this locus evolving at a rate slower than cytochrome b but faster than 12S. We estimate phylogenetic relationships within Neotoma using both maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood-based Bayesian methods. Our Bayesian and parsimony reconstructions differ in significant ways, but we show that our parsimony analysis may be influenced by long-branch attraction. Furthermore, our estimate of Neotoma phylogeny remains consistent across various data partitioning strategies in the Bayesian analyses. Using ancestral state reconstruction, we find support for the monophyly of taxa that possess the relatively rare genital form. However, we also find support for the independent evolution of the common genital form and discuss possible underlying developmental shifts that may have contributed to our observed patterns of morphological evolution.     

Mitochondrial DNA,morphology, and the phylogenetic relationships of Antarctic icefishes (Notothenioidei: Channichthyidae)

The Channichthyidae is a lineage of 16 species in the Notothenioidei, a clade of fishes that dominate Antarctic near-shore marine ecosystems with respect to both diversity and biomass. Among four published studies investigating channichthyid phylogeny, no two have produced the same tree topology, and no published study has investigated the degree of phylogenetic incongruence between existing molecular and morphological datasets. In this investigation we present an analysis of channichthyid phylogeny using complete gene sequences from two mitochondrial genes (ND2 and 16S) sampled from all recognized species in the clade. In addition, we have scored all 58 unique morphological characters used in three previous analyses of channichthyid phylogenetic relationships. Data partitions were analyzed separately to assess the amount of phylogenetic resolution provided by each dataset, and phylogenetic incongruence among data partitions was investigated using incongruence length difference (ILD) tests. We utilized a parsimony-based version of the Shimodaira-Hasegawa test to determine if alternative tree topologies are significantly different from trees resulting from maximum parsimony analysis of the combined partition dataset. Our results demonstrate that the greatest phylogenetic resolution is achieved when all molecular and morphological data partitions are combined into a single maximum parsimony analysis. Also, marginal to insignificant incongruence was detected among data partitions using the ILD. Maximum parsimony analysis of all data partitions combined results in a single tree, and is a unique hypothesis of phylogenetic relationships in the Channichthyidae. In particular, this hypothesis resolves the phylogenetic relationships of at least two species (Channichthys rhinoceratus and Chaenocephalus aceratus), for which there was no consensus among the previous phylogenetic hypotheses. The combined data partition dataset provides substantial statistical power to discriminate among alternative hypotheses of channichthyid relationships. These findings suggest the optimal strategy for investigating the phylogenetic relationships of channichthyids is one that uses all available phylogenetic data in analyses of combined data partitions.     

Does choice in model selection affect maximum likelihood analysis?

In order to have confidence in model-based phylogenetic analysis, the model of nucleotide substitution adopted must be selected in a statistically rigorous manner. Several model-selection methods are applicable to maximum likelihood (ML) analysis, including the hierarchical likelihood-ratio test (hLRT), Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and decision theory (DT), but their performance relative to empirical data has not been investigated thoroughly. In this study, we use 250 phylogenetic data sets obtained from TreeBASE to examine the effects that choice in model selection has on ML estimation of phylogeny, with an emphasis on optimal topology, bootstrap support, and hypothesis testing. We show that the use of different methods leads to the selection of two or more models for approximately 80% of the data sets and that the AIC typically selects more complex models than alternative approaches. Although ML estimation with different best-fit models results in incongruent tree topologies approximately 50% of the time, these differences are primarily attributable to alternative resolutions of poorly supported nodes. Furthermore, topologies and bootstrap values estimated with ML using alternative statistically supported models are more similar to each other than to topologies and bootstrap values estimated with ML under the Kimura two-parameter (K2P) model or maximum parsimony (MP). In addition, Swofford-Olsen-Waddell-Hillis (SOWH) tests indicate that ML trees estimated with alternative best-fit models are usually not significantly different from each other when evaluated with the same model. However, ML trees estimated with statistically supported models are often significantly suboptimal to ML trees made with the K2P model when both are evaluated with K2P, indicating that not all models perform in an equivalent manner. Nevertheless, the use of alternative statistically supported models generally does not affect tests of monophyletic relationships under either the Shimodaira-Hasegawa (S-H) or SOWH methods. Our results suggest that although choice in model selection has a strong impact on optimal tree topology, it rarely affects evolutionary inferences drawn from the data because differences are mainly confined to poorly supported nodes. Moreover, since ML with alternative best-fit models tends to produce more similar estimates of phylogeny than ML under the K2P model or MP, the use of any statistically based model-selection method is vastly preferable to forgoing the model-selection process altogether.     

Parsimony overcomes statistical inconsistency with the addition of more data from the same gene

Many authors have demonstrated that the parsimony method of phylogenetic analysis can fail to estimate phylogeny accurately under certain conditions when data follow a model that stipulates homogeneity of the evolutionary process. These demonstrations further show that no matter how much data are added, parsimony will forever exhibit this statistical inconsistency if the additional data have the same distributional properties as the original data. This final component—that the additional data must follow the same distribution as the original data—is crucial to the demonstration. Recent simulations show, however, that if data evolve heterogeneously, parsimony can perform consistently. Here we show, using natural data, that parsimony can overcome inconsistency if new data from the same gene are added to an analysis already exhibiting a condition indistinguishable from inconsistency. © The Willi Hennig Society 2005.     

Phylogenetic congruence and discordance among one morphological and three molecular data sets from Pontederiaceae

A morphological data set and three sources of data from the chloroplast genome (two genes and a restriction site survey) were used to reconstruct the phylogenetic history of the pickerelweed family Pontederiaceae. The chloroplast data converged towards a single tree, presumably the true chloroplast phylogeny of the family. Unrooted trees estimated from each of the three chloroplast data sets were identical or extremely similar in shape to each other and mostly robustly supported. There was no evidence of significant heterogeneity among the data sets, and the few topological differences seen among unrooted trees from each chloroplast data set are probably artifacts of sampling error on short branches. Despite well-documented differences in rates of evolution for different characters in individual data sets, equally weighted parsimony permits accurate reconstructions of chloroplast relationships in Pontederiaceae. A separate morphology-based data set yielded trees that were very different from the chloroplast trees. Although there was substantial support from the morphological evidence for several major clades supported by chloroplast trees, most of the conflicting phylogenetic structure on the morphology trees was not robust. Nonetheless, several statistical tests of incongruence indicate significant heterogeneity between molecules and morphology. The source of this apparent incongruence appears to be a low ratio of phylogenetic signal to noise in the morphological data.     

On the best evolutionary rate for phylogenetic analysis

The effect of the evolutionary rate of a gene on the accuracy of phylogeny reconstruction was examined by computer stimulation. The evolutionary rate is measured by the tree length, that is, the expected total number of nucleotide substitutions per site on the phylogeny. DNA sequence data were simulated using both fixed trees with specified branch lengths and random trees with branch lengths generated from a model of cladogenesis. The parsimony and likelihood methods were used for phylogeny reconstruction, and the proportion of correctly recovered branch partitions by each method was estimated. Phylogenetic methods including parsimony appear quite tolerant of multiple substitutions at the same site. The optimum levels of sequence divergence were even higher than upper limits previously suggested for saturation of substitutions, indicating that the problem of saturation may have been exaggerated. Instead, the lack of information at low levels of divergence should be seriously considered in evaluation of a gene's phylogenetic utility, especially when the gene sequence is short. The performance of parsimony, relative to that of likelihood, does not necessarily decrease with the increase of the evolutionary rate.     

Bayesian inference of the metazoan phylogeny; a combined molecular and morphological approach

Metazoan phylogeny remains one of evolutionary biology's major unsolved problems. Molecular and morphological data, as well as different analytical approaches, have produced highly conflicting results due to homoplasy resulting from more than 570 million years of evolution. To date, parsimony has been the only feasible combined approach but is highly sensitive to long-branch attraction. Recent development of stochastic models for discrete morphological characters and computationally efficient methods for Bayesian inference has enabled combined molecular and morphological data analysis with rigorous statistical approaches less prone to such inconsistencies. We present the first statistically founded analysis of a metazoan data set based on a combination of morphological and molecular data and compare the results with a traditional parsimony analysis. Interestingly, the Bayesian analyses demonstrate a high degree of congruence between morphological and molecular data, and both data sets contribute to the result of the combined analysis. Additionally, they resolve several irregularities obtained in previous studies and show high credibility values for controversial groups such as the ecdysozoans and lophotrochozoans. Parsimony, on the contrary, shows conflicting results, with morphology being congruent to the Bayesian results and the molecular data set producing peculiarities that are largely reflected in the combined analysis.     

Phylogeny of feather mite subfamily Avenzoariinae (Acari: Analgoidea: Avenzoariidae) inferred from combined analyses of molecular and morphological data.

Phylogenetic relationships among feather mites of the subfamily Avenzoariinae (Acari: Analgoidea: Avenzoariidae) were reconstructed by parsimony analysis of a combined data matrix. We analyzed 41 morphological characters and 246 molecular characters from a fragment of the 16S rDNA. Morphological trees were well supported at deep branches (genera and above), but showed much less support and resolution within genera. Molecular analyses produced trees with better resolution and support on terminal branches and worse support on basal branches. I(MF) index for the combined matrix pointed to the significant congruence of both data subsets with the whole of the data. The topology of the combined tree was close to the morphological tree in the deep branches and had well-resolved terminal branches as in the molecular tree. This suggests a considerable level of complimentarity between the two data sets. An analysis of association patterns of the mites and their hosts was conducted based on the results of the combined analyses for the Avenzoariinae and a phylogeny of their charadriiform hosts (compiled from various bird phylogeny hypotheses). The trees could be reconciled by the invoking of 12-13 cospeciation events, 6-7 duplications, 2 host shifts, and 26-29 sorting events. This suggests a high degree of cospeciation.     

A New Method of Inference of Ancestral Nucleotide and Amino Acid Sequences

A statistical method was developed for reconstructing the nucleotide or amino acid sequences of extinct ancestors, given the phylogeny and sequences of the extant species. A model of nucleotide or amino acid substitution was employed to analyze data of the present-day sequences, and maximum likelihood estimates of parameters such as branch lengths were used to compare the posterior probabilities of assignments of character states (nucleotides or amino acids) to interior nodes of the tree; the assignment having the highest probability was the best reconstruction at the site. The lysozyme c sequences of six mammals were analyzed by using the likelihood and parsimony methods. The new likelihood-based method was found to be superior to the parsimony method. The probability that the amino acids for all interior nodes at a site reconstructed by the new method are correct was calculated to be 0.91, 0.86, and 0.73 for all, variable, and parsimony-informative sites, respectively, whereas the corresponding probabilities for the parsimony method were 0.84, 0.76, and 0.51, respectively. The probability that an amino acid in an ancestral sequence is correctly reconstructed by the likelihood analysis ranged from 91.3 to 98.7% for the four ancestral sequences.     

Histological data in a combined phylogenetic analysis of scleractinian reef corals

Scleractinian systematics have undergone rapid changes due to increased use of molecular phylogenetics and new perspectives on skeletal morphology from micromorphology and microstructure. Despite this increase in characters there are still unresolved clades in the phylogeny, indicating that more characters are needed. This study investigates a new source of morphological data within the soft tissue of Indo‐Pacific scleractinian corals. Features of tissue layers, especially cnidocytes, are described in hematoxylin and eosin stained thin sections. Based on this new histological data source, a combined analysis with mitochondrial DNA and skeletal data is performed using parsimony and Bayesian analysis. Parsimony analysis yields three most‐parsimonious trees similar to trees based on Bayesian analysis. Character maps are also produced that show origination of histomorphological traits at deep nodes within the phylogeny. In general, both analyses retain the previously designated families Lobophylliidae and Merulinidae, but some genera are found to be paraphyletic. Nonetheless, the combined analysis produces a highly resolved and well‐supported phylogeny, which could lead to more effective use of biological conservation metrics based on evolutionary distinctiveness. These results show for the first time that inclusion of histomorphological characters improves the resolution of phylogenetic analyses of reef corals. J. Morphol. 277:494–511, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.