气候变化对森林演替的影响

森林演替是森林生态动力源驱动下森林再生的生态学过程,自20世纪初建立群落演替理论以来,演替研究成为生态学研究中的热点．客观准确地认识森林演替规律,研究森林演替动力学机理及其模型,是科学管理森林生态系统的需要;对于天然林保护工程与森林植被的恢复重建,具有重要的理论与实际意义．干扰是森林循环的驱动力,导致森林生态系统时空异质性,是更新格局和生态学过程的主要影响因素．它可改变资源的有效性,干扰导致的林隙是森林循环的起点．回顾了目前演替研究的几种方法,即马尔科夫模型、林窗模型(GAP)、陆地生物圈模型(BIOME)和非线性演替模式．介绍了气候变化对森林演替的影响;并在已有成果的基础上,提出了目前研究存在的问题及未来的发展方向．     

Spring bloom succession,grazing impact and herbivore selectivity of ciliate communities in response to winter warming

This study aimed at simulating different degrees of winter warming and at assessing its potential effects on ciliate succession and grazing-related patterns. By using indoor mesocosms filled with unfiltered water from Kiel Bight, natural light and four different temperature regimes, phytoplankton spring blooms were induced and the thermal responses of ciliates were quantified. Two distinct ciliate assemblages, a pre-spring and a spring bloom assemblage, could be detected, while their formation was strongly temperature-dependent. Both assemblages were dominated by Strobilidiids; the pre-spring bloom phase was dominated by the small Strobilidiids Lohmaniella oviformis, and the spring bloom was mainly dominated by large Strobilidiids of the genus Strobilidium. The numerical response of ciliates to increasing food concentrations showed a strong acceleration by temperature. Grazing rates of ciliates and copepods were low during the pre-spring bloom period and high during the bloom ranging from 0.06 (Δ0°C) to 0.23 day⁻¹ (Δ4°C) for ciliates and 0.09 (Δ0°C) to 1.62 day⁻¹ (Δ4°C) for copepods. During the spring bloom ciliates and copepods showed a strong dietary overlap characterized by a wide food spectrum consisting mainly of Chrysochromulina sp., diatom chains and large, single-celled diatoms. Priority programme of the German Research Foundation—contribution 4.     

南亚热带森林演替过程中小气候的改变及对气候变化的响应

区域水热格局变化和系统演替深刻影响森林内部小气候,不同演替阶段森林内部水热环境对气候变化的响应和反馈作用有待进一步认识和评估。以南亚热带地区的3种不同演替阶段代表性森林生态系统统(人工恢复的马尾松针叶林(Pinus massoniana coniferous forest,PF)、马尾松针阔叶混交林(mixed Pinus massoniana/broad-leaved forest,MF)和季风常绿阔叶林(monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forest,MEBF))为研究对象,通过分析其林内小气候林型间差异以及时间序列上的动态变化,探讨森林系统内部水热环境的改变机理。结果表明:演替驱动下,随着PF→MF→MEBF的正向发展,林内温度条件如气温、土壤温度逐渐降低,林内相对湿度、土壤层及凋落物含水量等水分状况逐步升高。不同林型在"雨热同期"的南亚热带地区其"降温效应"有差,演替初期的PF干、湿季"降温效应"分别为7.9%和3.6%,中期MF分别为11.6%和6.4%,顶级群落MEBF干、湿季"降温效应"可达15.7%和10.5%。总体上,随演替"降温增湿"效应越来越显著,且"降温"表现为干季更明显,而"增湿"表现为湿季明显。此外,演替驱动下后期森林对高温及土壤温度的调节作用更为突出。时间序列上,区域降水趋于"极端化"的格局影响下,森林生态系统的水分固持能力下降。主要表现为:自1984年以来,3种林型0—50cm土壤含水量均呈显著降低的趋势(P0.001),且湿季土壤含水量下降速率高于干季,林型间在全年及湿季均为MFMEBFPF,干季为MEBFMFPF。虽然研究期间3种林型林内气温、土壤温度无明显趋势性变化,但顶级群落MEBF林内相对湿度(P=0.021)、凋落物自然状态下含水量(P=0.003)在年际尺度上均呈现显著下降的趋势。与土壤含水量干、湿季下降速率的格局一致,二者也均为湿季大于干季。研究认为,成熟森林可能在当前南亚热带区域气候变化及水热格局改变背景影响下更为敏感和脆弱。     

Spring arrival response to climate change in birds: a case study from eastern Europe

This paper analyses the dependence of the first spring arrival dates of short/medium- and long-distance migrant bird species on climate warming in eastern Europe. The timing of arrival of the selected species at the observation site correlates with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, precipitation and wind characteristics. A positive correlation of fluctuations in winter and spring air temperatures with variations in the NAO index has been established in eastern Europe. Positive winter NAO index values are related to earlier spring arrival of birds in the eastern Baltic region and vice versa—arrival is late when the NAO index is negative. The impact of climate warming on the bird’s life cycle depends on local or regional climate characteristics. We tested the hypothesis that differences in climate indices between North Africa and Europe can influence the timing of spring arrival. Our results support the hypothesis that differences in first spring arrival dates between European populations occur after individuals cross the Sahara. We assume that the endogenous programme of migration control in short/medium-distance migrants synchronises with the changing environment on their wintering grounds and along their migration routes, whereas in long-distance migrants it is rather with environmental changes in the second part of their migratory route in Europe. Our results strongly indicate that the mechanism of dynamic balance in the interaction between the endogenous regulatory programme and environmental factors determines the pattern of spring arrival, as well as migration timing.     

Climate change and the phytoplankton spring bloom: warming and overwintering zooplankton have similar effects on phytoplankton

Indoor mesocosms were used to study the combined effect of warming and of different densities of overwintering mesozooplankton (mainly copepods) on the spring development of phytoplankton in shallow, coastal waters. Similar to previous studies, warming accelerated the spring phytoplankton peak by ca. 1 day °C^?1 whereas zooplankton did not significantly influence timing. Phytoplankton biomass during the experimental period decreased with warming and with higher densities of overwintering zooplankton. Similarly, average cell size and average effective particle size (here: colony size) decreased both with zooplankton density and warming. A decrease in phytoplankton particle size is generally considered at typical footprint of copepod grazing. We conclude that warming induced changes in the magnitude and structure of the phytoplankton spring bloom cannot be understood without considering grazing by overwintering zooplankton.     

The potential effects of climate change on winter mortality in England and Wales

In Britain death rates from several important causes, particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases, rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close association between temperature and mortality suggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief introductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditions and health, and statistical models are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors, particularly the occurrence of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperature and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis, pneumonia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistical models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rates for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deaths each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary estimates might change when further research is able to make into account a number of additional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and climate.     

Provision of aquatic ecosystem services as a consequence of societal changes: The case of the Baltic Sea

Aquatic ecosystem services are important for human wellbeing, but they are much less studied than terrestrial ecosystem services. The objectives of this study are to broaden, itemize and exemplify the human-nature interactions in modeling the future provision of aquatic ecosystem services. We include shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, used extensively in climate research, as drivers of change for the future development of the Baltic Sea. Then we use biogeochemical and ecosystem models to demonstrate the future development of exemplary supporting, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services for two distinct combinations of regionally downscaled global climate and socioeconomic futures. According to the model simulations, the two global futures (“Sustainable well-being” vs. “Fossil-fuelled development”) studied lead to clearly deviating trajectories in the provision of marine ecosystem services. Under the “Sustainable well-being”-scenario primary production decreases by 20%, catches of demersal fish increases and the recreation opportunities increase significantly by the end of the ongoing century. Under the “fossil-fuelled development”-scenario primary production doubles, fisheries focus on less valued pelagic fish and the recreation possibilities will decrease. Long-term projections of aquatic ecosystem services prepared for alternative global socioeconomic futures can be used by policy makers and managers to adaptively and iteratively adjust mitigation and adaptation effort with plausible future changes in the drivers of water pollution.     

气候变化对我国华北地区冬小麦发育和产量的影响

验证作物模型在我国华北冬小麦主产区是否适应的基础上,采用作物模型与气候模式相结合的研究方法,定量化地模拟预测了未来100年气候变化对华北冬小麦生产的影响.结果表明,从2000～2004年,华北地区冬小麦产量的模拟值与实测值的变化趋势基本一致,且生育期和产量变化不大.未来100年内华北地区冬小麦的生长期可能会有所缩短,平均缩短8.4 d;产量也会有不同程度的下降,平均减产10.1％.适当采取应对措施可以有效降低冬小麦的减产趋势.     

Impact of 21st century climate change on the Baltic Sea fish community and fisheries

The Baltic Sea is a large brackish semienclosed sea whose species-poor fish community supports important commercial and recreational fisheries. Both the fish species and the fisheries are strongly affected by climate variations. These climatic effects and the underlying mechanisms are briefly reviewed. We then use recent regional – scale climate – ocean modelling results to consider how climate change during this century will affect the fish community of the Baltic and fisheries management. Expected climate changes in northern Europe will likely affect both the temperature and salinity of the Baltic, causing it to become warmer and fresher. As an estuarine ecosystem with large horizontal and vertical salinity gradients, biodiversity will be particularly sensitive to changes in salinity which can be expected as a consequence of altered precipitation patterns. Marine-tolerant species will be disadvantaged and their distributions will partially contract from the Baltic Sea; habitats of freshwater species will likely expand. Although some new species can be expected to immigrate because of an expected increase in sea temperature, only a few of these species will be able to successfully colonize the Baltic because of its low salinity. Fishing fleets which presently target marine species (e.g. cod, herring, sprat, plaice, sole) in the Baltic will likely have to relocate to more marine areas or switch to other species which tolerate decreasing salinities. Fishery management thresholds that trigger reductions in fishing quotas or fishery closures to conserve local populations (e.g. cod, salmon) will have to be reassessed as the ecological basis on which existing thresholds have been established changes, and new thresholds will have to be developed for immigrant species. The Baltic situation illustrates some of the uncertainties and complexities associated with forecasting how fish populations, communities and industries dependent on an estuarine ecosystem might respond to future climate change.     

The effects of temperature increases on a temperate phytoplankton community — A mesocosm climate change scenario

Prior to the spring bloom in 2003 and 2004, batch temperature experiments of approximately 3 weeks' duration were carried out in land-based mesocosms in at the Espeland field station (Norway), with temperatures on average increased ~ 2.7-3 °C (T1) and ~ 5.2-5.6 °C (T2) above in situ fjord temperature (RM). The development in the chlorophyll concentrations showed an earlier bloom as a response to increased temperatures but the carbon biomass showed that the warmest treatment yielded the lowest biomass. This study indicates that a part of the relationship between temperature and spring bloom timing stems from a temperature-induced change in phytoplankton algal physiology (the efficiency of photosystem II, F_v/F_m, and growth rates, µ_max), i.e. a direct temperature effect. Data analysis performed on microscope identified and quantified species did not show a significant temperature influence on phytoplankton community composition. However, the HPLC data indicated that temperature changes of as little as 3 °C influence the community composition. In particular, these data showed that peridinin-containing dinoflagellates only increased in abundance in the heated mesocosms and that a prasinophycean bloom, which was undetected in the microscope analyses, occurred prior to the blooms of all other phytoplankton classes in all treatments. The microscope analyses did reveal a temperature effect on individual species distribution patterns. Thalassionema nitzschioides was more abundant in the warm treatments and, in the warmest treatment, the spring bloom forming Skeletonema marinoi comprised a smaller proportion of the diatom community than in the other treatments.     

Temperature sensitivity of spring vegetation phenology correlates to within-spring warming speed over the Northern Hemisphere

The inter-annual shift of spring vegetation phenology relative to per unit change of preseason temperature, referred to as temperature sensitivity (days °C⁻¹), quantifies the response of spring phenology to temperature change. Temperature sensitivity was found to differ greatly among vegetation from different environmental conditions. Understanding the large-scale spatial pattern of temperature sensitivity and its underlying determinant will greatly improve our ability to predict spring phenology. In this study, we investigated the temperature sensitivity for natural ecosystems over the North Hemisphere (north of 30°N), based on the vegetation phenological date estimated from NDVI time-series data provided by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the corresponding climate dataset. We found a notable longitudinal change pattern with considerable increases of temperature sensitivity from inlands to most coastal areas and a less obvious latitudinal pattern with larger sensitivity in low latitude area. This general spatial variation in temperature sensitivity is most strongly associated with the within-spring warming speed (WWS; r = 0.35, p < 0.01), a variable describing the increase speed of daily mean temperature during spring within a year, compared with other factors including the mean spring temperature, spring precipitation and mean winter temperature. These findings suggest that the same magnitude of warming will less affect spring vegetation phenology in regions with higher WWS, which might partially reflect plants’ adaption to local climate that prevents plants from frost risk caused by the advance of spring phenology. WWS accounts for the spatial variation in temperature sensitivity and should be taken into account in forecasting spring phenology and in assessing carbon cycle under the projected climate warming.     

Climate change and the timing, magnitude, and composition of the phytoplankton spring bloom

In this article, we show by mesocosm experiments that winter and spring warming will lead to substantial changes in the spring bloom of phytoplankton. The timing of the spring bloom shows only little response to warming as such, while light appears to play a more important role in its initiation. The daily light dose needed for the start of the phytoplankton spring bloom in our experiments agrees well with a recently published critical light intensity found in a field survey of the North Atlantic (around 1.3 mol photons m^?2 day^?1). Experimental temperature elevation had a strong effect on phytoplankton peak biomass (decreasing with temperature), mean cell size (decreasing with temperature) and on the share of microplankton diatoms (decreasing with temperature). All these changes will lead to poorer feeding conditions for copepod zooplankton and, thus, to a less efficient energy transfer from primary to fish production under a warmer climate.     

Physical processes and their role on the spatial and temporal variability of the spring phytoplankton bloom in the central Yellow Sea

The spatial and temporal variability of the spring phytoplankton bloom (SPB) in the central Yellow Sea is studied, using SeaWiFS surface chlorophyll remote-sensing data, AVHRR sea surface temperatures (SST), QuikSCAT sea surface wind speed (SSW) from 1998 to 2009 and the cruise survey data in 2007 and 2009. The influences of the hydrological conditions on the SPB are significant. (1) The rising SST and low SSW in spring play an important role in the development of the SPB. The SPB in the central Yellow Sea occurs primarily in April (from April 3 to April 24) and at this period the mean SST is generally greater than 10 °C, and 24 h averaged SSW is less than 5.4 m/s. The 99% of the SPB occurs when the SST is 9–14 °C and SSW is 0–7.9 m/s. (2) Specifically, the development of the SPB is from April 4 to April 7 and from April 4 to April 22 in 2007 and 2009 respectively. The longer duration of the SPB in 2009 than that in 2007 is related to the high SST in 2009, which is approximately 2 °C greater than that in 2007, and the weak SSW in 2009, which is much lower than that in 2007, which further indicate that these two factors are critical to the duration of the SPB. (3) The horizontal distribution of surface chlorophyll a in 2007 is found to be greater and located more northward than that in 2009. Comparing the spatial coverage of the SPB, the path of the Yellow Sea warm current, which is warmer and salty, and the location of maximum SST reveals that the spatial coverage of the SPB locates in the warmer temperature (>9 °C) and higher salinity (>33) waters in March and this warm and salty water was much more evident in 2007 than that in 2009 because a stronger warm current of the Yellow Sea in winter. (4) The vertical depths of the maximum chlorophyll layer (MCL) appear at three levels: surface, 10 m and 30 m in 2007, whereas the MCL occurs only at a sub-surface level in 2009 which is related to vertical stability of the water column, i.e., the water is vertically mixed in 2007 while vertically stratified in 2009.     

The late Maastrichtian nannofossil record of climate change in the South Atlantic DSDP Hole 525A

The phytoplankton response (calcareous nannofossils) to the Late Maastrichtian climate evolution is investigated in the South Atlantic DSDP Hole 525A and compared to published geochemical and micropaleontological data. The results point to a succession of dramatic climatic fluctuations. “Cool-water indicators” (Ahmuellerella octoradiata, Kamptnerius magnificus and Nephrolithus frequens) suggest cool surface water conditions prevailed during Chron C30n. At the top of C30n, their sudden drop in abundance, the last occurrence of B. constans and the concomitant increase in the tropical species Micula murus suggest warming and lower surface water productivity. An M. murus acme within Chron C29r reflects maximum warming. During the last 100 kyr of the Maastrichtian, the decrease in M. murus and increase in cool-water indicators reflect rapid cooling with the cool climate persisting over. The calcareous nannoplankton response to climate change correlate with similar findings in the Equatorial Atlantic Hole 1258A and parallels the stable isotope record of planktic and benthic foraminifera of DSDP Hole 525A as well as the decline in ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os. Comparison of this marine record and the continental climate record in North America suggests a link between Deccan volcanism and the late Maastrichtian warm event.     

The influence of climate on the timing and rate of spring bird migration

Ecological processes are changing in response to climatic warming. Birds, in particular, have been documented to arrive and breed earlier in spring and this has been attributed to elevated spring temperatures. It is not clear, however, how long-distance migratory birds that overwinter thousands of kilometers to the south in the tropics cue into changes in temperature or plant phenology on northern breeding areas. We explored the relationships between the timing and rate of spring migration of long-distance migratory birds, and variables such as temperature, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and plant phenology, using mist net capture data from three ringing stations in North America over a 40-year period. Mean April/May temperatures in eastern North America varied over a 5°C range, but with no significant trend during this period. Similarly, we found few significant trends toward earlier median capture dates of birds. Median capture dates were not related to the NAO, but were inversely correlated to spring temperatures for almost all species. For every 1°C increase in spring temperature, median capture dates of migratory birds averaged, across species, one day earlier. Lilac (Syringa vulgaris) budburst, however, averaged 3 days earlier for every 1°C increase in spring temperature, suggesting that the impact of temperature on plant phenology is three times greater than on bird phenology. To address whether migratory birds adjust their rate of northward migration to changes in temperature, we compared median capture dates for 15 species between a ringing station on the Gulf Coast of Louisiana in the southern USA with two stations approximately 2,500 km to the north. The interval between median capture dates in Louisiana and at the other two ringing stations was inversely correlated with temperature, with an average interval of 22 days, that decreased by 0.8 days per 1°C increase in temperature. Our results suggest that, although the onset of migration may be determined endogenously, the timing of migration is flexible and can be adjusted in response to variation in weather and/or phenology along migration routes.     

Physical processes and their role on the spatial and temporal variability of the spring phytoplankton bloom in the central Yellow Sea

The spatial and temporal variability of the spring phytoplankton bloom (SPB) in the central Yellow Sea is studied, using SeaWiFS surface chlorophyll remote-sensing data, AVHRR sea surface temperatures (SST), QuikSCAT sea surface wind speed (SSW) from 1998 to 2009 and the cruise survey data in 2007 and 2009. The influences of the hydrological conditions on the SPB are significant. (1) The rising SST and low SSW in spring play an important role in the development of the SPB. The SPB in the central Yellow Sea occurs primarily in April (from April 3 to April 24) and at this period the mean SST is generally greater than 10 °C, and 24 h averaged SSW is less than 5.4 m/s. The 99% of the SPB occurs when the SST is 9–14 °C and SSW is 0–7.9 m/s. (2) Specifically, the development of the SPB is from April 4 to April 7 and from April 4 to April 22 in 2007 and 2009 respectively. The longer duration of the SPB in 2009 than that in 2007 is related to the high SST in 2009, which is approximately 2 °C greater than that in 2007, and the weak SSW in 2009, which is much lower than that in 2007, which further indicate that these two factors are critical to the duration of the SPB. (3) The horizontal distribution of surface chlorophyll a in 2007 is found to be greater and located more northward than that in 2009. Comparing the spatial coverage of the SPB, the path of the Yellow Sea warm current, which is warmer and salty, and the location of maximum SST reveals that the spatial coverage of the SPB locates in the warmer temperature (>9 °C) and higher salinity (>33) waters in March and this warm and salty water was much more evident in 2007 than that in 2009 because a stronger warm current of the Yellow Sea in winter. (4) The vertical depths of the maximum chlorophyll layer (MCL) appear at three levels: surface, 10 m and 30 m in 2007, whereas the MCL occurs only at a sub-surface level in 2009 which is related to vertical stability of the water column, i.e., the water is vertically mixed in 2007 while vertically stratified in 2009.     

Feeding of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ctenocalanus citer</Emphasis> in the eastern Weddell Sea: low in summer and spring,high in autumn and winter

The feeding activity and diet of the small dominant Antarctic copepod, Ctenocalanus citer, were studied throughout the seasonal cycle from samples taken during several “Polarstern” cruises to the eastern Weddell Sea. Two indices of feeding activity were used, percentage of copepods with food inside and length of the faecal pellets. C. citer guts contained food throughout the year thus confirming the year-round activity of this species without diapause. Both indices demonstrated a seasonal pattern of foraging, unusual for a predominantly herbivorous copepod: high-feeding activity in autumn–winter and low in spring–summer. Our results suggest that feeding is at least partially decoupled from the phytoplankton bloom. Diet of C. citer was assessed by analyzing the gut contents. The bulk of the recognizable food in the guts of all copepodite stages consisted of small-sized phytoplankton, and no evidence of switching to a more carnivorous diet at low-phytoplankton concentrations was obtained. Usage of ice-associated algae was proposed to explain high winter-feeding activity. This knowledge of seasonal feeding patterns fills in a gap in our understanding of the life-cycle strategy of C. citer.     

Using niche-based modelling to assess the impact of climate change on tree functional diversity in Europe

Rapid anthropogenic climate change is already affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning worldwide. We applied niche-based models to analyse the impact of climate change on tree species and functional diversity in Europe. Present-day climate was used to predict the distributions of 122 tree species from different functional types (FT). We then explored projections of future distributions under one climate scenario for 2080, considering two alternative dispersal assumptions: no dispersal and unlimited dispersal. The species-rich broadleaved deciduous group appeared to play a key role in the future of different European regions. Temperate areas were projected to lose both species richness and functional diversity due to the loss of broadleaved deciduous trees. These were projected to migrate to boreal forests, thereby increasing their species richness and functional diversity. Atlantic areas provided an intermediate case, with a predicted reduction in the numbers of species and occasional predicted gains in functional diversity. This resulted from a loss in species within the broadleaved deciduous FT, but overall maintenance of the group. Our results illustrate the fact that both species-specific predictions and functional patterns should be examined separately in order to assess the impacts of climate change on biodiversity and gain insights into future ecosystem functioning.     

The effects of climate change on species composition,succession and phenology: a case study

Climate change and its role in altering biological interactions and the likelihood of invasion by introduced species in marine systems have received increased attention in recent years. It is difficult to forecast how climate change will influence community function or the probability of invasion as it alters multiple marine environmental parameters including rising water temperature, lower salinity and pH. In the present study, we correlate changes in environmental parameters to shifts in species composition in a subtidal community in Newcastle, NH through comparison of two, 3‐year periods separated by 23 years (1979–1981 and 2003–2005). We observed concurrent shifts in climate related factors and in groups of organisms that dominate the marine community when comparing 1979–1981 to 2003–2005. The 1979–1981 community was dominated by perennial species (mussels and barnacles). In contrast, the 2003–2005 community was dominated by annual native and invasive tunicates (sea‐squirts). We also observed a shift in the environmental factors that characterized both communities. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphate characterized the 1979–1981 community while sea surface temperature, pH, and chlorophyll a characterized the 2003–2005 community. Elongated warmer water temperatures, through the fall and early winter months of the 2000s, extended the growing season of native organisms and facilitated local dominance of invasive species. Additionally, beta‐diversity was greater between 2003–2005 than 1979–1981 and driven by larger numbers of annual species whose life‐history characteristics (e.g., timing and magnitude of recruitment, growth and mortality) are driven by environmental parameters, particularly temperature.     

The structure and stability of the bacterioplankton community in Antarctic freshwater lakes, subject to extremely rapid environmental change

In this study, variation in the bacterioplankton community structure of three Antarctic lakes of different nutrient status, was determined in relation to physical and chemical gradients at depth and at time intervals, across the seasonal transition from winter ice-cover to the summer ice-free period. The three lakes studied were: Moss Lake (low nutrient, with typical nutrient concentrations of 80 microg l(-1) nitrate and 10 microg l(-1) dissolved reactive phosphate), Sombre Lake (low nutrient, but becoming progressively enriched, with typical nutrient concentrations of 185 microg l(-1) nitrate and 7 microg l(-1) dissolved reactive phosphate) and Heywood Lake (enriched, with typical nutrient concentrations of 1180 microg l(-1) nitrate and 124 microg l(-1) dissolved reactive phosphate). Bacterioplankton community structure was determined using a combination of PCR amplification of 16S rRNA gene fragments and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). Results indicated marked changes in this bacterioplankton community structure, which were particularly associated with the transition period. However, significant changes also occurred during the period of holomixis. Comparison of the results from lakes of different nutrient status suggest that increased levels of nutrient input, and in the timing and duration of ice cover will lead to marked changes in the structure and stability of the bacterioplankton community at existing levels of environmental change.