Context‐dependency in carnivore co‐occurrence across a multi‐use conservation landscape

Carnivore intraguild dynamics depend on a complex interplay of environmental affinities and interspecific interactions. Context‐dependency is commonly expected with varying suites of interacting species and environmental conditions but seldom empirically described. In South Africa, decentralized approaches to conservation and the resulting multi‐tenure conservation landscapes have markedly altered the environmental stage that shapes the structure of local carnivore assemblages. We explored assemblage‐wide patterns of carnivore spatial (residual occupancy probability) and temporal (diel activity overlap) co‐occurrence across three adjacent wildlife‐oriented management contexts—a provincial protected area, a private ecotourism reserve, and commercial game ranches. We found that carnivores were generally distributed independently across space, but existing spatial dependencies were context‐specific. Spatial overlap was most common in the protected area, where species occur at higher relative abundances, and in game ranches, where predator persecution presumably narrows the scope for spatial asymmetries. In the private reserve, spatial co‐occurrence patterns were more heterogeneous but did not follow a dominance hierarchy associated with higher apex predator densities. Pair‐specific variability suggests that subordinate carnivores may alternate between pre‐emptive behavioral strategies and fine‐scale co‐occurrence with dominant competitors. Consistency in species‐pairs diel activity asynchrony suggested that temporal overlap patterns in our study areas mostly depend on species'' endogenous clock rather than the local context. Collectively, our research highlights the complexity and context‐dependency of guild‐level implications of current management and conservation paradigms; specifically, the unheeded potential for interventions to influence the local network of carnivore interactions with unknown population‐level and cascading effects.     

Early‐life conditions impact juvenile telomere length,but do not predict later life‐history strategies or fitness in a wild vertebrate

Environmental conditions experienced during early life may have long‐lasting effects on later‐life phenotypes and fitness. Individuals experiencing poor early‐life conditions may suffer subsequent fitness constraints. Alternatively, individuals may use a strategic “Predictive Adaptive Response” (PAR), whereby they respond—in terms of physiology or life‐history strategy—to the conditions experienced in early life to maximize later‐life fitness. Particularly, the Future Lifespan Expectation (FLE) PAR hypothesis predicts that when poor early‐life conditions negatively impact an individual''s physiological state, it will accelerate its reproductive schedule to maximize fitness during its shorter predicted life span. We aimed to measure the impact of early‐life conditions and resulting fitness across individual lifetimes to test predictions of the FLE hypothesis in a wild, long‐lived model species. Using a long‐term individual‐based dataset, we investigated how early‐life conditions are linked with subsequent fitness in an isolated population of the Seychelles warbler Acrocephalus sechellensis. How individuals experience early‐life environmental conditions may vary greatly, so we also tested whether telomere length—shorter telomers are a biomarker of an individual''s exposure to stress—can provide an effective measure of the individual‐specific impact of early‐life conditions. Specifically, under the FLE hypothesis, we would expect shorter telomeres to be associated with accelerated reproduction. Contrary to expectations, shorter juvenile telomere length was not associated with poor early‐life conditions, but instead with better conditions, probably as a result of faster juvenile growth. Furthermore, neither juvenile telomere length, nor other measures of early‐life conditions, were associated with age of first reproduction or the number of offspring produced during early life in either sex. We found no support for the FLE hypothesis. However, for males, poor early‐life body condition was associated with lower first‐year survival and reduced longevity, indicating that poor early‐life conditions pose subsequent fitness constraints. Our results also showed that using juvenile telomere length as a measure of early‐life conditions requires caution, as it is likely to not only reflect environmental stress but also other processes such as growth.     

Pace and shape of senescence in three species of duckweed

Senescence is progressive bodily deterioration associated with declines in survival and fecundity in older age classes. There is great diversity in patterns of senescence across species, but these patterns can be difficult to compare formally due to variation in the absolute time scales in which species live and die: members of some species live for a matter of days, others for millennia. To address this issue, the “pace‐shape” approach was developed to decouple absolute time from analyses and instead standardize life history traits in terms of average life expectancy, facilitating intra‐ and interspecific comparisons. Here, we use this approach to distinguish the generic form of demographic trajectories (shape) from the time scale on which the trajectories occurred (pace) in three species of tiny, free‐floating aquatic plants known as duckweeds (Lemna gibba L., L. minor L., and L. turionifera Landolt), which have mean lifespans of less than a month under typical lab conditions, and exhibit age‐related declines in survivorship and reproduction. Using a randomized block design in which we tracked a final total of 430 individuals, we report differences in pace and shape among the three species. Specifically, the largest, least‐fecund, and typically longest‐lived species, L. gibba, tended to exhibit more rapid decreases in time‐standardized survivorship and fecundity compared with the other two species. This study emphasizes variation in aging patterns that can be found among plant species, including those in the same genus, and provides further validation for the utility of applying the pace and shape approach in interspecific comparisons.     

Microbiome diversity and reproductive incompatibility induced by the prevalent endosymbiont Arsenophonus in two species of African cassava Bemisia tabaci whiteflies

A minimum of 13 diverse whitefly species belonging to the Bemisia tabaci (B. tabaci) species complex are known to infest cassava crops in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), designated as SSA1‐13. Of these, the SSA1 and SSA2 are the predominant species colonizing cassava crops in East Africa. The SSA species of B. tabaci harbor diverse bacterial endosymbionts, many of which are known to manipulate insect reproduction. One such symbiont, Arsenophonus, is known to drive its spread by inducing reproductive incompatibility in its insect host and are abundant in SSA species of B. tabaci. However, whether Arsenophonus affects the reproduction of SSA species is unknown. In this study, we investigated both the reproductive compatibility between Arsenophonus infected and uninfected whiteflies by inter‐/intraspecific crossing experiments involving the sub‐group three haplotypes of the SSA1 (SSA1‐SG3), SSA2 species, and their microbial diversity. The number of eggs, nymphs, progenies produced, hatching rate, and survival rate were recorded for each cross. In intra‐specific crossing trials, both male and female progenies were produced and thus demonstrated no reproductive incompatibility. However, the total number of eggs laid, nymphs hatched, and the emerged females were low in the intra‐species crosses of SSA1‐SG3A+, indicating the negative effect of Arsenophonus on whitefly fitness. In contrast, the inter‐species crosses between the SSA1‐SG3 and SSA2 produced no female progeny and thus demonstrated reproductive incompatibility. The relative frequency of other bacteria colonizing the whiteflies was also investigated using Illumina sequencing of 16S rDNA and diversity indices were recorded. Overall, SSA1‐SG3 and SSA2 harbored high microbial diversity with more than 137 bacteria discovered. These results described for the first time the microbiome diversity and the reproductive behaviors of intra‐/inter‐species of Arsenophonus in whitefly reproduction, which is crucial for understanding the invasion abilities of cassava whiteflies.     

Causes and consequences of variation in early‐life telomere length in a bird metapopulation

Environmental conditions during early‐life development can have lasting effects shaping individual heterogeneity in fitness and fitness‐related traits. The length of telomeres, the DNA sequences protecting chromosome ends, may be affected by early‐life conditions, and telomere length (TL) has been associated with individual performance within some wild animal populations. Thus, knowledge of the mechanisms that generate variation in TL, and the relationship between TL and fitness, is important in understanding the role of telomeres in ecology and life‐history evolution. Here, we investigate how environmental conditions and morphological traits are associated with early‐life blood TL and if TL predicts natal dispersal probability or components of fitness in 2746 wild house sparrow (Passer domesticus) nestlings from two populations sampled across 20 years (1994–2013). We retrieved weather data and we monitored population fluctuations, individual survival, and reproductive output using field observations and genetic pedigrees. We found a negative effect of population density on TL, but only in one of the populations. There was a curvilinear association between TL and the maximum daily North Atlantic Oscillation index during incubation, suggesting that there are optimal weather conditions that result in the longest TL. Dispersers tended to have shorter telomeres than non‐dispersers. TL did not predict survival, but we found a tendency for individuals with short telomeres to have higher annual reproductive success. Our study showed how early‐life TL is shaped by effects of growth, weather conditions, and population density, supporting that environmental stressors negatively affect TL in wild populations. In addition, shorter telomeres may be associated with a faster pace‐of‐life, as individuals with higher dispersal rates and annual reproduction tended to have shorter early‐life TL.     

Rhesus macaques compensate for reproductive delay following ecological adversity early in life

Adversity early in life can shape the reproductive potential of individuals through negative effects on health and life span. However, long‐lived populations with multiple reproductive events may present alternative life history strategies to optimize reproductive schedules and compensate for shorter life spans. Here, we quantify the effects of major hurricanes and density dependence as sources of early‐life ecological adversity on Cayo Santiago rhesus macaque female reproduction and decompose their effects onto the mean age‐specific fertility, reproductive pace, and lifetime reproductive success (LRS). Females experiencing major hurricanes exhibit a delayed reproductive debut but maintain the pace of reproduction past debut and show a higher mean fertility during prime reproductive ages, relative to unaffected females. Increasing density at birth is associated to a decrease in mean fertility and reproductive pace, but such association is absent at intermediate densities. When combined, our study reveals that hurricanes early in life predict a delay‐overshoot pattern in mean age‐specific fertility that supports the maintenance of LRS. In contrast to predictive adaptive response models of accelerated reproduction, this long‐lived population presents a novel reproductive strategy where females who experience major natural disasters early in life ultimately overcome their initial reproductive penalty with no major negative fitness outcomes. Density presents a more complex relation with reproduction that suggests females experiencing a population regulated at intermediate densities early in life will escape density dependence and show optimized reproductive schedules. Our results support hypotheses about life history trade‐offs in which adversity‐affected females ensure their future reproductive potential by allocating more energy to growth or maintenance processes at younger adult ages.     

Challenges and opportunities for comparative studies of survival rates: An example with male pinnipeds

Survival rates are a central component of life‐history strategies of large vertebrate species. However, comparative studies seldom investigate interspecific variation in survival rates with respect to other life‐history traits, especially for males. The lack of such studies could be due to the challenges associated with obtaining reliable datasets, incorporating information on the 0–1 probability scale, or dealing with several types of measurement error in life‐history traits, which can be a computationally intensive process that is often absent in comparative studies. We present a quantitative approach using a Bayesian phylogenetically controlled regression with the flexibility to incorporate uncertainty in estimated survival rates and quantitative life‐history traits while considering genetic similarity among species and uncertainty in relatedness. As with any comparative analysis, our approach makes several assumptions regarding the generalizability and comparability of empirical data from separate studies. Our model is versatile in that it can be applied to any species group of interest and include any life‐history traits as covariates. We used an unbiased simulation framework to provide “proof of concept” for our model and applied a slightly richer model to a real data example for pinnipeds. Pinnipeds are an excellent taxonomic group for comparative analysis, but survival rate data are scarce. Our work elucidates the challenges associated with addressing important questions related to broader ecological life‐history patterns and how survival–reproduction trade‐offs might shape evolutionary histories of extant taxa. Specifically, we underscore the importance of having high‐quality estimates of age‐specific survival rates and information on other life‐history traits that reasonably characterize a species for accurately comparing across species.     

FishSizer: Software solution for efficiently measuring larval fish size

1. Length and depth of fish larvae are part of the fundamental measurements in many marine ecology studies involving early fish life history. Until now, obtaining these measurements has required intensive manual labor and the risk of inter‐ and intra‐observer variability.
2. We developed an open‐source software solution to semi‐automate the measurement process and thereby reduce both time consumption and technical variability. Using contrast‐based edge detection, the software segments images of a fish larva into “larva” and “background.” Length and depth are extracted from the “larva” segmentation while taking curvature of the larva into consideration. The graphical user interface optimizes workflow and ease of usage, thereby reducing time consumption for both training and analysis. The software allows for visual verification of all measurements.
3. A comparison of measurement methods on a set of larva images showed that this software reduces measurement time by 66%–78% relative to commonly used software.
4. Using this software instead of the commonly used manual approach has the potential to save researchers from many hours of monotonous work. No adjustment was necessary for 89% of the images regarding length (70% for depth). Hence, the only workload on most images was the visual inspection. As the visual inspection and manual dimension extraction works in the same way as currently used software, we expect no loss in accuracy.

     

Plasticity is a locally adapted trait with consequences for ecological dynamics in novel environments

Phenotypic plasticity is predicted to evolve in more variable environments, conferring an advantage on individual lifetime fitness. It is less clear what the potential consequences of that plasticity will have on ecological population dynamics. Here, we use an invertebrate model system to examine the effects of environmental variation (resource availability) on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in two life history traits—age and size at maturation—in long‐running, experimental density‐dependent environments. Specifically, we then explore the feedback from evolution of life history plasticity to subsequent ecological dynamics in novel conditions. Plasticity in both traits initially declined in all microcosm environments, but then evolved increased plasticity for age‐at‐maturation, significantly so in more environmentally variable environments. We also demonstrate how plasticity affects ecological dynamics by creating founder populations of different plastic phenotypes into new microcosms that had either familiar or novel environments. Populations originating from periodically variable environments that had evolved greatest plasticity had lowest variability in population size when introduced to novel environments than those from constant or random environments. This suggests that while plasticity may be costly it can confer benefits by reducing the likelihood that offspring will experience low survival through competitive bottlenecks in variable environments. In this study, we demonstrate how plasticity evolves in response to environmental variation and can alter population dynamics—demonstrating an eco‐evolutionary feedback loop in a complex animal moderated by plasticity in growth.     

Effects of experimental watering but not warming on herbivory vary across a gradient of precipitation

Climate change can affect biotic interactions, and the impacts of climate on biotic interactions may vary across climate gradients. Climate affects biotic interactions through multiple drivers, although few studies have investigated multiple climate drivers in experiments. We examined the effects of experimental watering, warming, and predator access on leaf water content and herbivory rates of woolly bear caterpillars (Arctia virginalis) on a native perennial plant, pacific silverweed (Argentina anserina ssp. pacifica), at two sites across a gradient of precipitation in coastal California. Based on theory, we predicted that watering should increase herbivory at the drier end of the gradient, predation should decrease herbivory, and watering and warming should have positive interacting effects on herbivory. Consistent with our predictions, we found that watering only increased herbivory under drier conditions. However, watering increased leaf water content at both wetter and drier sites. Warming increased herbivory irrespective of local climate and did not interact with watering. Predation did not affect herbivory rates. Given predictions that the study locales will become warmer and drier with climate change, our results suggest that the effects of future warming and drying on herbivory may counteract each other in drier regions of the range of Argentina anserina. Our findings suggest a useful role for range‐limit theory and the stress‐gradient hypothesis in predicting climate change effects on herbivory across stress gradients. Specifically, if climate change decreases stress, herbivory may increase, and vice versa for increasing stress. In addition, our work supports previous suggestions that multiple climate drivers are likely to have dampening effects on biotic interactions due to effects in different directions, though this is context‐dependent.     

Building integral projection models with nonindependent vital rates

Population dynamics are functions of several demographic processes including survival, reproduction, somatic growth, and maturation. The rates or probabilities for these processes can vary by time, by location, and by individual. These processes can co‐vary and interact to varying degrees, e.g., an animal can only reproduce when it is in a particular maturation state. Population dynamics models that treat the processes as independent may yield somewhat biased or imprecise parameter estimates, as well as predictions of population abundances or densities. However, commonly used integral projection models (IPMs) typically assume independence across these demographic processes. We examine several approaches for modelling between process dependence in IPMs and include cases where the processes co‐vary as a function of time (temporal variation), co‐vary within each individual (individual heterogeneity), and combinations of these (temporal variation and individual heterogeneity). We compare our methods to conventional IPMs, which treat vital rates independent, using simulations and a case study of Soay sheep (Ovis aries). In particular, our results indicate that correlation between vital rates can moderately affect variability of some population‐level statistics. Therefore, including such dependent structures is generally advisable when fitting IPMs to ascertain whether or not such between vital rate dependencies exist, which in turn can have subsequent impact on population management or life‐history evolution.     

Latitudinal influence on gametogenesis and host–parasite ecology in a marine bivalve model

Reproduction and parasites have significant impacts on marine animal populations globally. This study aimed to investigate the associative effects of host reproduction and a host–parasite interplay on a marine bivalve, along a geographic gradient of latitude. Cockles Cerastoderma edule were sampled from five European sites (54°N to 40°N), between April 2018 and October 2019. A histological survey provided data on trematode (metacercaria and sporocyst life stages), prevalence, and cockle stage of gametogenesis to assess the influence of a latitudinal gradient on both interplays. Sex ratios at the northernmost sites were skewed toward females, and spawning size was reduced at the lower latitudes. Trematode infection did not follow a latitudinal gradient. Localized site‐related drivers, namely seawater temperature, varied spatially, having an impact on cockle–trematode interactions. Spawning was related to elevated temperatures at all sites. Prolonged spawning occurred at southern latitudes, where seawater temperatures were warmer. Trematode prevalence and the impact of trematodes on gametogenesis were found to be spatially variable, but not latitudinally. Therefore, it is not possible to determine the likelihood of boom and bust events in cockles, based on the latitudinal location of a population. In terms of sublethal impacts, it appeared that energy was allocated to reproduction rather than somatic growth in southern populations, with less energy allocated to reproduction in the larger, northern cockles. The demonstrated spatial trend of energy allocation indicates the potential of a temporal trend of reduced cockle growth at northern sites, as a result of warming sea temperatures. This awareness of the spatially varying drivers of populations is crucial considering the potential for these drivers/inhibitors to be exacerbated in a changing marine environment.     

High functional diversity in deep‐sea fish communities and increasing intraspecific trait variation with increasing latitude

Variation in both inter‐ and intraspecific traits affects community dynamics, yet we know little regarding the relative importance of external environmental filters versus internal biotic interactions that shape the functional space of communities along broad‐scale environmental gradients, such as latitude, elevation, or depth. We examined changes in several key aspects of functional alpha diversity for marine fishes along depth and latitude gradients by quantifying intra‐ and interspecific richness, dispersion, and regularity in functional trait space. We derived eight functional traits related to food acquisition and locomotion and calculated seven complementary indices of functional diversity for 144 species of marine ray‐finned fishes along large‐scale depth (50–1200 m) and latitudinal gradients (29°–51° S) in New Zealand waters. Traits were derived from morphological measurements taken directly from footage obtained using Baited Remote Underwater Stereo‐Video systems and museum specimens. We partitioned functional variation into intra‐ and interspecific components for the first time using a PERMANOVA approach. We also implemented two tree‐based diversity metrics in a functional distance‐based context for the first time: namely, the variance in pairwise functional distance and the variance in nearest neighbor distance. Functional alpha diversity increased with increasing depth and decreased with increasing latitude. More specifically, the dispersion and mean nearest neighbor distances among species in trait space and intraspecific trait variability all increased with depth, whereas functional hypervolume (richness) was stable across depth. In contrast, functional hypervolume, dispersion, and regularity indices all decreased with increasing latitude; however, intraspecific trait variation increased with latitude, suggesting that intraspecific trait variability becomes increasingly important at higher latitudes. These results suggest that competition within and among species are key processes shaping functional multidimensional space for fishes in the deep sea. Increasing morphological dissimilarity with increasing depth may facilitate niche partitioning to promote coexistence, whereas abiotic filtering may be the dominant process structuring communities with increasing latitude.     

Age‐specific habitat preference,carrying capacity,and landscape structure determine the response of population spatial variability to fishing‐driven age truncation

1. Understanding the mechanisms underlying spatial variability of exploited fish is critical for the sustainable management of fish stocks. Empirical studies suggest that size‐selective fishing can elevate fish population spatial variability (i.e., more heterogeneous distribution) through age truncation, making the population less resilient to changing environment. However, species differ in how their spatial variability responds to age truncation and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear.
2. We hypothesize that age‐specific habitat preference, together with environmental carrying capacity and landscape structure, determines the response of population spatial variability to fishing‐induced age truncation. To test these hypotheses, we design an individual‐based model of an age‐structured fish population on a two‐dimensional landscape under size‐selective fishing. Individual fish reproduces and survives, and moves between habitats according to age‐specific habitat preference and density‐dependent habitat selection.
3. Population spatial variability elevates with increasing age truncation, and the response is stronger for populations with stronger age‐specific habitat preference. On a gradient landscape, reducing carrying capacity elevates the relative importance of density dependence in habitat selection, which weakens the response of spatial variability to age truncation for populations with strong age‐specific habitat preference. On a fragmented landscape, both populations with strong and weak age‐specific habitat preferences are restricted at local optimal habitats, and reducing carrying capacity weakens the responses of spatial variability to age truncation for both populations.
4. Synthesis and applications. We demonstrate that to track and predict the changes in population spatial variability under exploitation, it is essential to consider the interactive effects of age‐specific habitat preference, carrying capacity, and landscape structure. To improve spatial management in fisheries, it is crucial to enhance empirical and theoretical developments in the methodology to quantify age‐specific habitat preference of marine fish, and to understand how climatic change influences carrying capacity and landscape continuity.

     

Mixed interactions among life history stages of two harvested related species

Climate change and harvesting can affect the ecosystems'' functioning by altering the population dynamics and interactions among species. Knowing how species interact is essential for better understanding potentially unintended consequences of harvest on multiple species in ecosystems. I analyzed how stage‐specific interactions between two harvested competitors, the haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), living in the Barents Sea affect the outcome of changes in the harvest of the two species. Using state‐space models that account for observation errors and stochasticity in the population dynamics, I run different harvesting scenarios and track population‐level responses of both species. The increasing temperature elevated the number of larvae of haddock but did not significantly influence the older age‐classes. The nature of the interactions between both species shifted from predator‐prey to competition around age‐2 to ‐3. Increased cod fishing mortality, which led to decreasing abundance of cod, was associated with an increasing overall abundance of haddock, which suggests compensatory dynamics of both species. From a stage‐specific approach, I show that a change in the abundance in one species may propagate to other species, threatening the exploited species'' recovery. Thus, this study demonstrates that considering interactions among life history stages of harvested species is essential to enhance species'' co‐existence in harvested ecosystems. The approach developed in this study steps forward the analyses of effects of harvest and climate in multi‐species systems by considering the comprehension of complex ecological processes to facilitate the sustainable use of natural resources.     

Demographic responses to climate‐driven variation in habitat quality across the annual cycle of a migratory bird species

The demography and dynamics of migratory bird populations depend on patterns of movement and habitat quality across the annual cycle. We leveraged archival GPS‐tagging data, climate data, remote‐sensed vegetation data, and bird‐banding data to better understand the dynamics of black‐headed grosbeak (Pheucticus melanocephalus) populations in two breeding regions, the coast and Central Valley of California (Coastal California) and the Sierra Nevada mountain range (Sierra Nevada), over 28 years (1992–2019). Drought conditions across the annual cycle and rainfall timing on the molting grounds influenced seasonal habitat characteristics, including vegetation greenness and phenology (maturity dates). We developed a novel integrated population model with population state informed by adult capture data, recruitment rates informed by age‐specific capture data and climate covariates, and survival rates informed by adult capture–mark–recapture data and climate covariates. Population size was relatively variable among years for Coastal California, where numbers of recruits and survivors were positively correlated, and years of population increase were largely driven by recruitment. In the Sierra Nevada, population size was more consistent and showed stronger evidence of population regulation (numbers of recruits and survivors negatively correlated). Neither region showed evidence of long‐term population trend. We found only weak support for most climate–demographic rate relationships. However, recruitment rates for the Coastal California region were higher when rainfall was relatively early on the molting grounds and when wintering grounds were relatively cool and wet. We suggest that our approach of integrating movement, climate, and demographic data within a novel modeling framework can provide a useful method for better understanding the dynamics of broadly distributed migratory species.     

Modeling the demography of species providing extended parental care: A capture–recapture multievent model with a case study on polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

1. In species providing extended parental care, one or both parents care for altricial young over a period including more than one breeding season. We expect large parental investment and long‐term dependency within family units to cause high variability in life trajectories among individuals with complex consequences at the population level. So far, models for estimating demographic parameters in free‐ranging animal populations mostly ignore extended parental care, thereby limiting our understanding of its consequences on parents and offspring life histories.
2. We designed a capture–recapture multievent model for studying the demography of species providing extended parental care. It handles statistical multiple‐year dependency among individual demographic parameters grouped within family units, variable litter size, and uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence. It allows for the evaluation of trade‐offs among demographic parameters, the influence of past reproductive history on the caring parent''s survival status, breeding probability, and litter size probability, while accounting for imperfect detection of family units. We assess the model performance using simulated data and illustrate its use with a long‐term dataset collected on the Svalbard polar bears (Ursus maritimus).
3. Our model performed well in terms of bias and mean square error and in estimating demographic parameters in all simulated scenarios, both when offspring departure probability from the family unit occurred at a constant rate or varied during the field season depending on the date of capture. For the polar bear case study, we provide estimates of adult and dependent offspring survival rates, breeding probability, and litter size probability. Results showed that the outcome of the previous reproduction influenced breeding probability.
4. Overall, our results show the importance of accounting for i) the multiple‐year statistical dependency within family units, ii) uncertainty on the timing at offspring independence, and iii) past reproductive history of the caring parent. If ignored, estimates obtained for breeding probability, litter size, and survival can be biased. This is of interest in terms of conservation because species providing extended parental care are often long‐living mammals vulnerable or threatened with extinction.

     

Characterization of the SARS‐CoV‐2 E Protein: Sequence,Structure, Viroporin,and Inhibitors

The COVID‐19 epidemic is one of the most influential epidemics in history. Understanding the impact of coronaviruses (CoVs) on host cells is very important for disease treatment. The SARS‐CoV‐2 envelope (E) protein is a small structural protein involved in many aspects of the viral life cycle. The E protein promotes the packaging and reproduction of the virus, and deletion of this protein weakens or even abolishes the virulence. This review aims to establish new knowledge by combining recent advances in the study of the SARS‐CoV‐2 E protein and by comparing it with the SARS‐CoV E protein. The E protein amino acid sequence, structure, self‐assembly characteristics, viroporin mechanisms and inhibitors are summarized and analyzed herein. Although the mechanisms of the SARS‐CoV‐2 and SARS‐CoV E proteins are similar in many respects, specific studies on the SARS‐CoV‐2 E protein, for both monomers and oligomers, are still lacking. A comprehensive understanding of this protein should prompt further studies on the design and characterization of effective targeted therapeutic measures.     

A comparison in species distribution model performance of succulents using key species and subsets of environmental predictors

Identifying the environmental drivers of the global distribution of succulent plants using the Crassulacean acid metabolism pathway of photosynthesis has previously been investigated through ensemble‐modeling of species delimiting the realized niche of the natural succulent biome. An alternative approach, which may provide further insight into the fundamental niche of succulent plants in the absence of dispersal limitation, is to model the distribution of selected species that are globally widespread and have become naturalized far beyond their native habitats. This could be of interest, for example, in defining areas that may be suitable for cultivation of alternative crops resilient to future climate change. We therefore explored the performance of climate‐only species distribution models (SDMs) in predicting the drivers and distribution of two widespread CAM plants, Opuntia ficus‐indica and Euphorbia tirucalli. Using two different algorithms and five predictor sets, we created distribution models for these exemplar species and produced an updated map of global inter‐annual rainfall predictability. No single predictor set produced markedly more accurate models, with the basic bioclim‐only predictor set marginally out‐performing combinations with additional predictors. Minimum temperature of the coldest month was the single most important variable in determining spatial distribution, but additional predictors such as precipitation and inter‐annual precipitation variability were also important in explaining the differences in spatial predictions between SDMs. When compared against previous projections, an a posteriori approach correctly does not predict distributions in areas of ecophysiological tolerance yet known absence (e.g., due to biotic competition). An updated map of inter‐annual rainfall predictability has successfully identified regions known to be depauperate in succulent plants. High model performance metrics suggest that the majority of potentially suitable regions for these species are predicted by these models with a limited number of climate predictors, and there is no benefit in expanding model complexity and increasing the potential for overfitting.