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1.
In the 200 years since the Sumatran rhinoceros was first scientifically described (Fisher 1814), the range of the species has contracted from a broad region in Southeast Asia to three areas on the island of Sumatra and one in Kalimantan, Indonesia. Assessing population and spatial distribution of this very rare species is challenging because of their elusiveness and very low population number. Using an occupancy model with spatial dependency, we assessed the fraction of the total landscape occupied by Sumatran rhinos over a 30,345-km2 survey area and the effects of covariates in the areas where they are known to occur. In the Leuser Landscape (surveyed in 2007), the model averaging result of conditional occupancy estimate was ψ^(SE[ψ^])=0.151(0.109) or 2,371.47 km2, and the model averaging result of replicated level detection probability p^(SE[p^])=0.252(0.267); in Way Kambas National Park—2008: ψ^(SE[ψ^])=0.468(0.165) or 634.18 km2, and p^(SE[p^])=0.138(0.571); and in Bukit Barisan Selatan National Park—2010: ψ^(SE[ψ^])=0.322(0.049) or 819.67 km2, and p^(SE[p^])=0.365(0.42). In the Leuser Landscape, rhino occurrence was positively associated with primary dry land forest and rivers, and negatively associated with the presence of a road. In Way Kambas, occurrence was negatively associated with the presence of a road. In Bukit Barisan Selatan, occurrence was negatively associated with presence of primary dryland forest and rivers. Using the probabilities of site occupancy, we developed spatially explicit maps that can be used to outline intensive protection zones for in-situ conservation efforts, and provide a detailed assessment of conserving Sumatran rhinos in the wild. We summarize our core recommendation in four points: consolidate small population, strong protection, determine the percentage of breeding females, and recognize the cost of doing nothing. To reduce the probability of poaching, here we present only the randomized location of site level occupancy in our result while retaining the overall estimation of occupancy for a given area.  相似文献   

2.
The usual practice of using a control chart to monitor a process is to take samples from the process with fixed sampling interval (FSI). In this paper, a synthetic X¯ control chart with the variable sampling interval (VSI) feature is proposed for monitoring changes in the process mean. The VSI synthetic X¯ chart integrates the VSI X¯ chart and the VSI conforming run length (CRL) chart. The proposed VSI synthetic X¯ chart is evaluated using the average time to signal (ATS) criterion. The optimal charting parameters of the proposed chart are obtained by minimizing the out-of-control ATS for a desired shift. Comparisons between the VSI synthetic X¯ chart and the existing X¯, synthetic X¯, VSI X¯ and EWMA X¯ charts, in terms of ATS, are made. The ATS results show that the VSI synthetic X¯ chart outperforms the other X¯ type charts for detecting moderate and large shifts. An illustrative example is also presented to explain the application of the VSI synthetic X¯ chart.  相似文献   

3.
The fixation index F st plays a central role in ecological and evolutionary genetic studies. The estimators of Wright (F^st1), Weir and Cockerham (F^st2), and Hudson et al. (F^st3) are widely used to measure genetic differences among different populations, but all have limitations. We propose a minimum variance estimator F^stm using F^st1 and F^st2. We tested F^stm in simulations and applied it to 120 unrelated East African individuals from Ethiopia and 11 subpopulations in HapMap 3 with 464,642 SNPs. Our simulation study showed that F^stm has smaller bias than F^st2 for small sample sizes and smaller bias than F^st1 for large sample sizes. Also, F^stm has smaller variance than F^st2 for small F st values and smaller variance than F^st1 for large F st values. We demonstrated that approximately 30 subpopulations and 30 individuals per subpopulation are required in order to accurately estimate F st.  相似文献   

4.
BackgroundApproximately 10% to 20% of people with concussion experience prolonged post-concussion symptoms (PPCS). There is limited information identifying risk factors for PPCS in adult populations. This study aimed to derive a risk score for PPCS by determining which demographic factors, premorbid health conditions, and healthcare utilization patterns are associated with need for prolonged concussion care among a large cohort of adults with concussion.Methods and findingsData from a cohort study (Ontario Concussion Cohort study, 2008 to 2016; n = 1,330,336) including all adults with a concussion diagnosis by either primary care physician (ICD-9 code 850) or in emergency department (ICD-10 code S06) and 2 years of healthcare tracking postinjury (2008 to 2014, n = 587,057) were used in a retrospective analysis. Approximately 42.4% of the cohort was female, and adults between 18 and 30 years was the largest age group (31.0%). PPCS was defined as 2 or more specialist visits for concussion-related symptoms more than 6 months after injury index date. Approximately 13% (73,122) of the cohort had PPCS. Total cohort was divided into Derivation (2009 to 2013, n = 417,335) and Validation cohorts (2009 and 2014, n = 169,722) based upon injury index year. Variables selected a priori such as psychiatric disorders, migraines, sleep disorders, demographic factors, and pre-injury healthcare patterns were entered into multivariable logistic regression and CART modeling in the Derivation Cohort to calculate PPCS estimates and forward selection logistic regression model in the Validation Cohort. Variables with the highest probability of PPCS derived in the Derivation Cohort were: Age >61 years (p^ = 0.54), bipolar disorder (p^ = 0.52), high pre-injury primary care visits per year (p^ = 0.46), personality disorders (p^ = 0.45), and anxiety and depression (p^ = 0.33). The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.79 for the derivation model, 0.79 for bootstrap internal validation of the Derivation Cohort, and 0.64 for the Validation model. A limitation of this study was ability to track healthcare usage only to healthcare providers that submit to Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP); thus, some patients seeking treatment for prolonged symptoms may not be captured in this analysis.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that premorbid psychiatric conditions, pre-injury health system usage, and older age were associated with increased risk of a prolonged recovery from concussion. This risk score allows clinicians to calculate an individual’s risk of requiring treatment more than 6 months post-concussion.

In a retrospective study of data from a cohort of adults with a concussion diagnosis in Ontario, Laura Kathleen Langer and colleagues derive a risk score for predicting risk of prolonged post-concussion symptoms.  相似文献   

5.
The basic reproductive number (R₀) and the distribution of the serial interval (SI) are often used to quantify transmission during an infectious disease outbreak. In this paper, we present estimates of R₀ and SI from the 2003 SARS outbreak in Hong Kong and Singapore, and the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) outbreak in South Africa using methods that expand upon an existing Bayesian framework. This expanded framework allows for the incorporation of additional information, such as contact tracing or household data, through prior distributions. The results for the R₀ and the SI from the influenza outbreak in South Africa were similar regardless of the prior information (R^0 = 1.36–1.46, μ^ = 2.0–2.7, μ^ = mean of the SI). The estimates of R₀ and μ for the SARS outbreak ranged from 2.0–4.4 and 7.4–11.3, respectively, and were shown to vary depending on the use of contact tracing data. The impact of the contact tracing data was likely due to the small number of SARS cases relative to the size of the contact tracing sample.  相似文献   

6.
In this study, we evaluate a preload-based Starling-like controller for implantable rotary blood pumps (IRBPs) using left ventricular end-diastolic pressure (PLVED) as the feedback variable. Simulations are conducted using a validated mathematical model. The controller emulates the response of the natural left ventricle (LV) to changes in PLVED. We report the performance of the preload-based Starling-like controller in comparison with our recently designed pulsatility controller and constant speed operation. In handling the transition from a baseline state to test states, which include vigorous exercise, blood loss and a major reduction in the LV contractility (LVC), the preload controller outperformed pulsatility control and constant speed operation in all three test scenarios. In exercise, preload-control achieved an increase of 54% in mean pump flow (QP-) with minimum loading on the LV, while pulsatility control achieved only a 5% increase in flow and a decrease in mean pump speed. In a hemorrhage scenario, the preload control maintained the greatest safety margin against LV suction. PLVED for the preload controller was 4.9 mmHg, compared with 0.4 mmHg for the pulsatility controller and 0.2 mmHg for the constant speed mode. This was associated with an adequate mean arterial pressure (MAP) of 84 mmHg. In transition to low LVC, QP- for preload control remained constant at 5.22 L/min with a PLVED of 8.0 mmHg. With regards to pulsatility control, QP- fell to the nonviable level of 2.4 L/min with an associated PLVED of 16 mmHg and a MAP of 55 mmHg. Consequently, pulsatility control was deemed inferior to constant speed mode with a PLVED of 11 mmHg and a QP- of 5.13 L/min in low LVC scenario. We conclude that pulsatility control imposes a danger to the patient in the severely reduced LVC scenario, which can be overcome by using a preload-based Starling-like control approach.  相似文献   

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The field of recurrent neural networks is over-populated by a variety of proposed learning rules and protocols. The scope of this work is to define a generalized framework, to move a step forward towards the unification of this fragmented scenario. In the field of supervised learning, two opposite approaches stand out, error-based and target-based. This duality gave rise to a scientific debate on which learning framework is the most likely to be implemented in biological networks of neurons. Moreover, the existence of spikes raises the question of whether the coding of information is rate-based or spike-based. To face these questions, we proposed a learning model with two main parameters, the rank of the feedback learning matrix R and the tolerance to spike timing τ. We demonstrate that a low (high) rank R accounts for an error-based (target-based) learning rule, while high (low) tolerance to spike timing promotes rate-based (spike-based) coding. We show that in a store and recall task, high-ranks allow for lower MSE values, while low-ranks enable a faster convergence. Our framework naturally lends itself to Behavioral Cloning and allows for efficiently solving relevant closed-loop tasks, investigating what parameters (R,τ) are optimal to solve a specific task. We found that a high R is essential for tasks that require retaining memory for a long time (Button and Food). On the other hand, this is not relevant for a motor task (the 2D Bipedal Walker). In this case, we find that precise spike-based coding enables optimal performances. Finally, we show that our theoretical formulation allows for defining protocols to estimate the rank of the feedback error in biological networks. We release a PyTorch implementation of our model supporting GPU parallelization.  相似文献   

9.
Methylenetetrahydrofolate dehydrogenase/cyclohydrolase (MTHFD2) is a new drug target that is expressed in cancer cells but not in normal adult cells, which provides an Achilles heel to selectively kill cancer cells. Despite the availability of crystal structures of MTHFD2 in the inhibitor- and cofactor-bound forms, key information is missing due to technical limitations, including (a) the location of absolutely required Mg2+ ion, and (b) the substrate-bound form of MTHFD2. Using computational modeling and simulations, we propose that two magnesium ions are present at the active site whereby (i) Arg233, Asp225, and two water molecules coordinate MgA2+, while MgA2+ together with Arg233 stabilize the inorganic phosphate (Pi); (ii) Asp168 and three water molecules coordinate MgB2+, and MgB2+ further stabilizes Pi by forming a hydrogen bond with two oxygens of Pi; (iii) Arg201 directly coordinates the Pi; and (iv) through three water-mediated interactions, Asp168 contributes to the positioning and stabilization of MgA2+, MgB2+ and Pi. Our computational study at the empirical valence bond level allowed us also to elucidate the detailed reaction mechanisms. We found that the dehydrogenase activity features a proton-coupled electron transfer with charge redistribution connected to the reorganization of the surrounding water molecules which further facilitates the subsequent cyclohydrolase activity. The cyclohydrolase activity then drives the hydration of the imidazoline ring and the ring opening in a concerted way. Furthermore, we have uncovered that two key residues, Ser197/Arg233, are important factors in determining the cofactor (NADP+/NAD+) preference of the dehydrogenase activity. Our work sheds new light on the structural and kinetic framework of MTHFD2, which will be helpful to design small molecule inhibitors that can be used for cancer treatment.  相似文献   

10.
The crawling of biological cell is a complex phenomenon involving various biochemical and mechanical processes. Some of these processes are intrinsic to individual cells, while others pertain to cell-to-cell interactions and to their responses to extrinsically imposed cues. Here, we report an interesting aggregation dynamics of mathematical model cells, when they perform chemotaxis in response to an externally imposed global chemical gradient while they influence each other through a haptotaxis-mediated social interaction, which confers intriguing trail patterns. In the absence of the cell-to-cell interaction, the equilibrium population density profile fits well to that of a simple Keller-Segal population dynamic model, in which a chemotactic current density Jchemop competes with a normal diffusive current density Jdiffρ, where p and ρ refer to the concentration of chemoattractant and population density, respectively. We find that the cell-to-cell interaction confers a far more compact aggregation resulting in a much higher peak equilibrium cell density. The mathematical model system is applicable to many biological systems such as swarming microglia and neutrophils or accumulating ants towards a localized food source.  相似文献   

11.
PurposeSkin temperature assessment has historically been undertaken with conductive devices affixed to the skin. With the development of technology, infrared devices are increasingly utilised in the measurement of skin temperature. Therefore, our purpose was to evaluate the agreement between four skin temperature devices at rest, during exercise in the heat, and recovery.MethodsMean skin temperature (T-sk) was assessed in thirty healthy males during 30 min rest (24.0 ± 1.2°C, 56 ± 8%), 30 min cycle in the heat (38.0 ± 0.5°C, 41 ± 2%), and 45 min recovery (24.0 ± 1.3°C, 56 ± 9%). T-sk was assessed at four sites using two conductive devices (thermistors, iButtons) and two infrared devices (infrared thermometer, infrared camera).ResultsBland–Altman plots demonstrated mean bias ± limits of agreement between the thermistors and iButtons as follows (rest, exercise, recovery): -0.01 ± 0.04, 0.26 ± 0.85, -0.37 ± 0.98°C; thermistors and infrared thermometer: 0.34 ± 0.44, -0.44 ± 1.23, -1.04 ± 1.75°C; thermistors and infrared camera (rest, recovery): 0.83 ± 0.77, 1.88 ± 1.87°C. Pairwise comparisons of T-sk found significant differences (p < 0.05) between thermistors and both infrared devices during resting conditions, and significant differences between the thermistors and all other devices tested during exercise in the heat and recovery.ConclusionsThese results indicate poor agreement between conductive and infrared devices at rest, during exercise in the heat, and subsequent recovery. Infrared devices may not be suitable for monitoring T-sk in the presence of, or following, metabolic and environmental induced heat stress.  相似文献   

12.
In patients with COPD, CT assessment of emphysema and airway disease is known to be associated with lung function and 6-minute walk distance. However, it remains to be determined whether low attenuation area (LAA) on CT is associated with aerobic capacity assessed using cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET). In this prospective observational study, we repeatedly conducted high-resolution CT and CPET using a treadmill in 81 COPD patients over a median interval of 3.5 years. Two investigators independently scored LAA on images obtained at the aortic arch level, tracheal bifurcation level, and supradiaphragmatic level. Grades for the images of each lung were added to yield the total LAA score. Total LAA score was negatively correlated with peak aerobic capacity (V˙O2) (p<0.001, r = -0.485). LAA scores of the upper (aortic arch level) and the lower (supradiaphragmatic level) lungs were both significantly associated with peak V˙O2. There was a significant correlation between total LAA score and peak CO2 output (V˙CO2) (p<0.001, r = -0.433). Total LAA score was correlated with oxygen saturation at peak exercise (p<0.001, r = -0.634) and the estimated dead space fraction (p<0.001, r = 0.416). The mean annual change in total LAA score was significantly correlated with those in peak V˙O2 (p<0.001, r = -0.546) and peak V˙CO2 (p<0.001, r = -0.488). The extent of emphysema measured by CT was associated with the results of CPET. The time-dependent changes in CPET data were also correlated with that in total LAA score. CT assessment could be a non-invasive tool to predict aerobic capacity in patients with COPD.  相似文献   

13.
To better understand the interaction of physical activity and air pollution exposure, it is important to quantify the change in ventilation rate incurred by activity. In this paper, we describe a method for estimating ventilation using easily-measured variables such as heart rate (HR), breathing rate (fB), and forced vital capacity (FVC). We recruited healthy adolescents to use a treadmill while we continuously measured HR, fB, and the tidal volume (VT) of each breath. Participants began at rest then walked and ran at increasing speed until HR was 160–180 beats per minute followed by a cool down period. The novel feature of this method is that minute ventilation (V˙E) was normalized by FVC. We used general linear mixed models with a random effect for subject and identified nine potential predictor variables that influence either V˙E or FVC. We assessed predictive performance with a five-fold cross-validation procedure. We used a brute force selection process to identify the best performing models based on cross-validation percent error, the Akaike Information Criterion and the p-value of parameter estimates. We found a two-predictor model including HR and fB to have the best predictive performance (V˙E/FVC = -4.247+0.0595HR+0.226fB, mean percent error = 8.1±29%); however, given the ubiquity of HR measurements, a one-predictor model including HR may also be useful (V˙E/FVC = -3.859+0.101HR, mean percent error = 11.3±36%).  相似文献   

14.
The purpose of this study was to evaluate cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), activity level, some health-related anthropometric variables, sedentary behaviour and socioeconomic status (SES) of 7-11 year old boys in the city of Ardabil, Iran. Of 21 253 school boys aged 7-11 years, 766 participated in this study using the cluster sampling method. Subjects underwent standard anthropometry. One-mile test was used to evaluate V.O2 max. BMI cut-off points were used to identify weight status. Child''s TV watching and video playing daily time (TVVPT) was taken for sedentary behaviour evaluation. SES and activity level were measured by standard questionnaires. Of all participants, 8.9% (N=68) of students had CRF lower than normal and 58.6% (N=449) of them had inadequate physical activity. There was a significant adverse relationship between V.O2 max and body mass index (BMI), waist to height ratio (WHtR), waist circumference (WC), and fat mass (FM) (p<0.05). A significant direct association between SES and both FM and TVVPT was observed (p<0.05). Significantly lower physical activity and V.O2 max, and higher TVVPT were observed in the obese boys than their counterparts (p<0.05). The results of this study indicated a significant relationship between CRF and physical activity, and health-related anthropometric variables in a selected sample of 7-11 year boys. Moreover, the obese subjects had not only lower physical activity but also longer sedentary behaviour time than their counterparts.  相似文献   

15.
Protected areas (PAs) have been established to conserve tropical forests, but their effectiveness at reducing deforestation is uncertain. To explore this issue, we combined high resolution data of global forest loss over the period 2000–2012 with data on PAs. For each PA we quantified forest loss within the PA, in buffer zones 1, 5, 10 and 15 km outside the PA boundary as well as a 1 km buffer within the PA boundary. We analysed 3376 tropical and subtropical moist forest PAs in 56 countries over 4 continents. We found that 73% of PAs experienced substantial deforestation pressure, with >0.1% a−1 forest loss in the outer 1 km buffer. Forest loss within PAs was greatest in Asia (0.25% a−1) compared to Africa (0.1% a−1), the Neotropics (0.1% a−1) and Australasia (Australia and Papua New Guinea; 0.03% a−1). We defined performance (P) of a PA as the ratio of forest loss in the inner 1 km buffer compared to the loss that would have occurred in the absence of the PA, calculated as the loss in the outer 1 km buffer corrected for any difference in deforestation pressure between the two buffers. To remove the potential bias due to terrain, we analysed a subset of PAs (n = 1804) where slope and elevation in inner and outer 1 km buffers were similar (within 1° and 100 m, respectively). We found 41% of PAs in this subset reduced forest loss in the inner buffer by at least 25% compared to the expected inner buffer forest loss (P<0.75). Median performance (P˜) of subset reserves was 0.87, meaning a reduction in forest loss within the PA of 13%. We found PAs were most effective in Australasia (P˜=0.16), moderately successful in the Neotropics (P˜=0.72) and Africa (P˜=0.83), but ineffective in Asia (P˜=1). We found many countries have PAs that give little or no protection to forest loss, particularly in parts of Asia, west Africa and central America. Across the tropics, the median effectiveness of PAs at the national level improved with gross domestic product per capita. Whilst tropical and subtropical moist forest PAs do reduce forest loss, widely varying performance suggests substantial opportunities for improved protection, particularly in Asia.  相似文献   

16.
Published analysis of genetic material from field-collected tsetse (Glossina spp, primarily from the Palpalis group) has been used to predict that the distance (δ) dispersed per generation increases as effective population densities (De) decrease, displaying negative density-dependent dispersal (NDDD). Using the published data we show this result is an artefact arising primarily from errors in estimates of S, the area occupied by a subpopulation, and thereby in De. The errors arise from the assumption that S can be estimated as the area (S^) regarded as being covered by traps. We use modelling to show that such errors result in anomalously high correlations between δ^ and S^ and the appearance of NDDD, with a slope of -0.5 for the regressions of log(δ^) on log(D^e), even in simulations where we specifically assume density-independent dispersal (DID). A complementary mathematical analysis confirms our findings. Modelling of field results shows, similarly, that the false signal of NDDD can be produced by varying trap deployment patterns. Errors in the estimates of δ in the published analysis were magnified because variation in estimates of S were greater than for all other variables measured, and accounted for the greatest proportion of variation in δ^. Errors in census population estimates result from an erroneous understanding of the relationship between trap placement and expected tsetse catch, exacerbated through failure to adjust for variations in trapping intensity, trap performance, and in capture probabilities between geographical situations and between tsetse species. Claims of support in the literature for NDDD are spurious. There is no suggested explanation for how NDDD might have evolved. We reject the NDDD hypothesis and caution that the idea should not be allowed to influence policy on tsetse and trypanosomiasis control.  相似文献   

17.
This study investigated the effects of endurance followed by strength training (ES, men n = 16; women n = 15), the reverse exercise order (SE, men n = 18, women n = 13) and concurrent endurance and strength training performed on alternating days (AD, men n = 21, women n = 18) on cardiorespiratory parameters. Peak oxygen consumption (V˙O2peak) and oxygen consumption at sub-maximal power outputs (V˙O2submax) of 50 to 175 Watts in men and 50 to 125 Watts in women were assessed during an incremental cycling test both before and after 24 weeks of training. Increases in V˙O2peak in both men and women were statistically larger in AD (18±9% and 25±11%) compared to ES (7±9% and 12±12%, p = 0.002 and 0.009, respectively) and SE (7±9% and 10±8%, p = 0.005 and 0.008, respectively). No statistical group interaction was observed for V˙O2submax in men, but in women V˙O2submax was statistically lower at week 24 in ES compared to AD at 75 W (-2±6% vs. +3±6%, p = 0.027) and 125 W (-4±5% vs. +2±5%, p = 0.010). These findings indicate that endurance and strength training performed on alternating days may optimize the adaptations in V˙O2peak in both sexes, while performing ES training in women may optimize cardiorespiratory fitness at sub-maximal power outputs.  相似文献   

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To elucidate the effects of endurance training on circulating irisin levels in young and middle-aged/older adults, and to determine the association between endurance training-induced alteration of irisin and reduction in body fat. Twenty-five healthy young (age 21 ± 1 years; 16 men, 9 women) and 28 healthy middle-aged/older adults (age 67 ± 8 years; 12 men, 16 women) participated in the study. Each age cohort was divided into two groups: the endurance-training group (14 young, 14 middle-aged/older) and the control group. Subjects in the training groups completed an 8-week endurance-training program (cycling at 60-70% peak oxygen uptake [V˙O2peak] for 45 min, 3 days/week). Before and after the intervention, we evaluated serum irisin level, V˙O2peak, and body composition. The increase in V˙O2peak in the young and middle-aged/older training groups after the intervention period was significantly greater than those in the young and middle-aged/older control groups (P < 0.05). Serum irisin level was significantly increased in the middle-aged/older training group after the intervention period (P < 0.01), but not in the young training group. Furthermore, in the middle-aged/older training group, the endurance training-induced reduction in visceral adipose tissue area was negatively correlated with the change in serum irisin level (r = −0.54, P < 0.05). These results suggest a possible role for secreted irisin in the exercise-induced alteration of abdominal visceral fat in middle-aged and older adults.  相似文献   

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