Attributional and consequential LCA of milk production

Background, aim and scope  Different ways of performing a life cycle assessment (LCA) are used to assess the environmental burden of milk production. A strong connection exists between the choice between attributional LCA (ALCA) and consequential LCA (CLCA) and the choice of how to handle co-products. Insight is needed in the effect of choice on results of environmental analyses of agricultural products, such as milk. The main goal of this study was to demonstrate and compare ALCA and CLCA of an average conventional milk production system in The Netherlands. Materials and methods  ALCA describes the pollution and resource flows within a chosen system attributed to the delivery of a specified amount of the functional unit. CLCA estimates how pollution and resource flows within a system change in response to a change in output of the functional unit. For an average Dutch conventional milk production system, an ALCA (mass and economic allocation) and a CLCA (system expansion) were performed. Impact categories included in the analyses were: land use, energy use, climate change, acidification and eutrophication. The comparison was based on four criteria: hotspot identification, comprehensibility, quality and availability of data. Results  Total environmental burdens were lower when using CLCA compared with ALCA. Major hotspots for the different impact categories when using CLCA and ALCA were similar, but other hotspots differed in contributions, order and type. As experienced by the authors, ALCA and use of co-product allocation are difficult to comprehend for a consequential practitioner, while CLCA and system expansion are difficult to comprehend for an attributional practitioner. Literature shows concentrates used within ALCA will be more understandable for a feeding expert than the feed used within CLCA. Outcomes of CLCA are more sensitive to uncertainties compared with ALCA, due to the inclusion of market prospects. The amount of data required within CLCA is similar compared with ALCA. Discussion  The main cause of these differences between ALCA and CLCA is the fact that different systems are modelled. The goal of the study or the research question to be answered defines the system under study. In general, the goal of CLCA is to assess environmental consequences of a change in demand, whereas the goal of ALCA is to assess the environmental burden of a product, assuming a status-quo situation. Nowadays, however, most LCA practitioners chose one methodology independent of their research question. Conclusions  This study showed it is possible to perform both ALCA (mass and economic allocation) and CLCA (system expansion) of milk. Choices of methodology, however, resulted in differences in: total quantitative outcomes, hotspots, degree of understanding and quality. Recommendations and perspectives  We recommend LCA practitioners to better distinguish between ALCA and CLCA in applied studies to reach a higher degree of transparency. Furthermore, we recommend LCA practitioners of different research areas to perform similar case studies to address differences between ALCA and CLCA of the specific products as the outcomes might differ from our study.     

The potential impact of second‐generation biofuel landscapes on at‐risk species in the US

The recent increase in corn ethanol production has drawn attention to the environmental sustainability of biofuel production. Environmental assessments of second‐generation biofuel crops (SGBC) have focused primarily on greenhouse gas emissions and water quality. However, expanding the production of cellulosic biomass resources, especially those that require dedicated agricultural land, is also likely to have impacts on biodiversity. We developed an optimization framework for projecting the spatial pattern of SGBC expansion in the United States and intersected these predictions with occurrence data for at‐risk species. In particular, we focused on two candidate perennial grass feedstocks, Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), and Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus). Tradeoffs between biodiversity and economic profitability are assessed using county level data sets of SGBC yield, agricultural land availability, land rents, and at‐risk species occurrences. Results show that future SGBC expansion is likely to occur outside of the Corn Belt, where conventional biofuel feedstocks are currently grown. The set of at‐risk species that could potentially be impacted is therefore likely to be different from the at‐risk species prevalent in the agroecological landscapes of the Upper Midwest that are dominated by corn and soy production. The total number and type of potentially impacted taxa is influenced by several factors, including the total demand for cellulosic biomass, the type of agricultural land used for production, and the method for defining at‐risk species. SGBC production is also concentrated in fewer counties when a national species conservation constraint is combined with a biofuel production mandate. This analysis provides a foundation for future research on species conservation in bioenergy production landscapes and highlights the importance of incorporating biodiversity into broader environmental assessments of biofuel sustainability.     

Consequential life cycle assessment of biogas,biofuel and biomass energy options within an arable crop rotation

Feed in tariffs (FiTs) and renewable heat incentives (RHIs) are driving a rapid expansion in anaerobic digestion (AD) coupled with combined heat and power (CHP) plants in the UK. Farm models were combined with consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) to assess the net environmental balance of representative biogas, biofuel and biomass scenarios on a large arable farm, capturing crop rotation and digestate nutrient cycling effects. All bioenergy options led to avoided fossil resource depletion. Global warming potential (GWP) balances ranged from ?1732 kg CO₂e Mg^?1 dry matter (DM) for pig slurry AD feedstock after accounting for avoided slurry storage to +2251 kg CO₂e Mg^?1 DM for oilseed rape biodiesel feedstock after attributing indirect land use change (iLUC) to displaced food production. Maize monoculture for AD led to net GWP increases via iLUC, but optimized integration of maize into an arable rotation resulted in negligible food crop displacement and iLUC. However, even under best‐case assumptions such as full use of heat output from AD‐CHP, crop–biogas achieved low GWP reductions per hectare compared with Miscanthus heating pellets under default estimates of iLUC. Ecosystem services (ES) assessment highlighted soil and water quality risks for maize cultivation. All bioenergy crop options led to net increases in eutrophication after displaced food production was accounted for. The environmental balance of AD is sensitive to design and management factors such as digestate storage and application techniques, which are not well regulated in the UK. Currently, FiT payments are not dependent on compliance with sustainability criteria. We conclude that CLCA and ES effects should be integrated into sustainability criteria for FiTs and RHIs, to direct public money towards resource‐efficient renewable energy options that achieve genuine climate protection without degrading soil, air or water quality.     

Origin of the white shark Carcharodon (Lamniformes: Lamnidae) based on recalibration of the Upper Neogene Pisco Formation of Peru

Abstract: The taxonomic origin of the white shark, Carcharodon, is a highly debated subject. New fossil evidence presented in this study suggests that the genus is derived from the broad‐toothed ‘mako’, Carcharodon (Cosmopolitodus) hastalis, and includes the new species C. hubbelli sp. nov. – a taxon that demonstrates a transition between C. hastalis and Carcharodon carcharias. Specimens from the Pisco Formation clearly demonstrate an evolutionary mosaic of characters of both recent C. carcharias and fossil C. hastalis. Characters diagnostic to C. carcharias include the presence tooth serrations and a symmetrical first upper anterior tooth that is the largest in the tooth row, while those indicative of C. hastalis include a mesially slanted third anterior (intermediate) tooth. We also provide a recalibration of critical fossil horizons within the Pisco Formation, Peru using zircon U‐Pb dating and strontium‐ratio isotopic analysis. The recalibration of the absolute dates suggests that Carcharodon hubbelli sp. nov. is Late Miocene (6–8 Ma) in age. This research revises and elucidates lamnid shark evolution based on the calibration of the Neogene Pisco Formation.     

Two millennia of changes in human ecology: archaeobotanical and invertebrate records from the lower Ica valley, south coast Peru

This paper presents archaeobotanical and invertebrate evidence from the flotation and analyses of 46 archaeological contexts from six middens from the Samaca and Ullujaya basins, lower Ica Valley, south coast of Peru. This is part of one of the world’s driest deserts and organic remains can enjoy extraordinary preservation in its hyperarid climate. Each of these contexts represents snapshots with which to piece together a picture of changing human ecology in the lower Ica Valley over nearly two millennia, from Ocucaje Phases 3/4 of the Early Horizon (c. 750 b.c.); through to Early Nasca Phases 2/3 (c. a.d. 100–450); Late Nasca Phases 6/7 (c. a.d. 450–600) and Middle Horizon Epoch 2 (c. a.d. 900). They also offer proxy evidence of wider ecological changes in these basins. Read together with geoarchaeological and pollen data, the archaeobotanical data we present show a gradual intensification of agriculture from small-scale Early Ocucaje societies subsisting mainly on gathered marine and terrestrial resources, through to sophisticated irrigation agriculture by Nasca times, but culminating in a collapse of agricultural production and a return to the gathering of wild marine and plant resources much later, during the Middle Horizon. This trajectory of human ecology is consistent with the model presented elsewhere of a gradual removal of Prosopis dominated riparian woodland for the purpose of increasing agricultural production, which in time exposed the landscape of the lower Ica Valley to high-energy, episodic flood events and of one of the world’s strongest and most persistent wind regimes.     

High concentration of long‐snouted beaked whales (genus Messapicetus) from the Miocene of Peru

Abstract: Eight skulls of beaked whales (Cetacea, Odontoceti, Ziphiidae), in six cases associated with elements of the mandible, were collected from a limited area (about 1.5 km²) and roughly from the same stratigraphic horizon at Cerro Colorado, 35 km south‐south‐west of the city of Ica (Peru), where the late Middle Miocene basal strata of the Pisco Formation crop out. They represent the highest concentration reported of fossil Ziphiidae. These finely preserved Cerro Colorado fossils are described and assigned to a new species Messapicetus gregarius, together with another specimen collected from sediments of the same age at Cerro la Bruja (33 km south‐east to Cerro Colorado). Messapicetus gregarius shares with M. longirostris Bianucci, Landini and Varola, 1992 (Tortonian of Italy), an extremely elongated rostrum, but is clearly different from the Italian species in the more distinct maxillary tubercle and prominential notch, the more robust premaxillary crest, and the abrupt ventrolateral descent of the medial margin of the maxilla from the vertex. A parsimony analysis reveals that Messapicetus belongs to a basal clade, which includes other ziphiids with a dorsally closed mesorostral groove and prenarial basin. The high concentration of specimens belonging to the same species (some of them tentatively identified as adult males and females), combined with the presence of a calf, supports the hypothesis of site fidelity; these cetaceans might have lived in a limited region for a long period for both breeding and feeding. Besides the eight specimens of M. gregarius, strata at Cerro Colorado include many other cetacean remains (with several specimens of the pontoporiid Brachydelphis including a foetus), pinnipeds, turtles, fishes, and birds.     

Attributional versus consequential life cycle assessment and feed optimization: alternative protein sources in pig diets

Purpose

Feed production is responsible for the majority of the environmental impact of livestock production, especially for monogastric animals, such as pigs. Some feeding strategies demonstrated that replacing one ingredient with a high impact, e.g. soybean meal (SBM), with an alternative protein source, e.g. locally produced peas or rapeseed meal, has potential to reduce the environmental impact. These studies, however, used an attributional life cycle assessment (ALCA), which solely addresses the direct environmental impact of a product. A replacement of SBM with alternative protein sources, however, can also have indirect environmental consequences, which might change environmental benefits of using alternative protein sources. This study aims to explore differences in results when performing an ALCA and a CLCA to reduce the environmental impact of pig production. We illustrated this for two case studies: replacing SBM with rapeseed meal (RSM), and replacing SBM with waste-fed larvae meal in diets of finishing-pigs.

Methods

We used an ALCA and CLCA to assess global warming potential (GWP), energy use (EU) and land use (LU) of replacing SBM with RSM and waste-fed larvae meal, for finishing-pigs. The functional unit was 1 kg of body weight gain.

Results and discussion

Based on an ALCA, replacing SBM with RSM showed that GWP (3%) and EU (1%) were not changed, but LU was decreased (14%). ALCA results for replacing SBM with waste-fed larvae meal showed that EU did not change (1%), but GWP (10%) and LU (56%) were decreased. Based on a CLCA, replacing SBM with RSM showed an increased GWP (15%), EU (12%) and LU (10%). Replacing SBM with waste-fed larvae meal showed an increased GWP (60%) and EU (89%), but LU (70%) was decreased. Furthermore, the results of the sensitivity analysis showed that assumptions required to perform a CLCA, such as definition of the marginal product, have a large impact on final results but did not affect the final conclusions.

Conclusions

The CLCA results seem to contradict the ALCA results. CLCA results for both case studies showed that using co-products and waste-fed larvae meal currently not reduces the net environmental impact of pork production. This would have been overlooked when results were only based on ALCA. To gain insight into the environmental impact of feed, animal nutritionists can use an ALCA. If policy makers or the feed industry, however, want to assess the net environmental impact of a potential feeding strategy, it is recommended to perform a CLCA. Feed and food markets are, however, highly dynamic. Pig feed optimization is based on least cost optimization and a wide range of ingredients are available; diet compositions can, therefore, change easily, resulting in different environmental impacts. Ideally, therefore, a CLCA should include a sensitivity analysis (e.g. different feed prices or different marginal products) to provide a range of possible outcomes to make the results more robust.

     

Reconstructing changes in the genotype,phenotype, and climatic niche of an introduced species

An introduced species must contend with enormous environmental variation in its introduced range. In this study, we use niche models and ordination analyses to reconstruct changes in genotype, phenotype, and climatic niche of Johnsongrass Sorghum halepense, which is regarded as one of the world's most threatening invasive plants. In the United States, Johnsongrass has rapidly evolved within‐ and among‐population genetic diversity; our results show that genetic differentiation in expanding Johnsongrass populations has resulted in phenotypic variation that is consistent with habitat and climatic variation encountered during its expansion. Moreover, Johnsongrass expanded from agricultural to non‐agricultural habitat, and now, despite occupying overlapping ranges, extant agricultural and non‐agricultural populations are genetically and phenotypically distinct and manifest different plastic responses when encountering environmental variation. Non‐agricultural accessions are broadly distributed in climatic and geographic space and their fitness traits demonstrate plastic responses to common garden conditions that are consistent with local specialization. In contrast, agricultural accessions demonstrate ‘general purpose’ plastic responses and have more restricted climatic niches and geographic distributions. They also grow much larger than non‐agricultural accessions. If these differences are adaptive, our results suggest that adaptation to local habitat variation plays a crucial role in the ecology of this invader. Further, its success relates to its ability to succeed on dual fronts, by responding simultaneously to habitat and climate variability and by capitalizing on differential responses to these factors during its range expansion.     

Length‐weight relationships of four freshwater fish species from the coastal drainage system in Peru

The morphometric relationships of three native and one exotic freshwater fish species from the Lower San Juan and Lower Pisco River basins, central Coast of Peru, are presented. Specimens were collected in May and November 2010 using seine nets and electrofishing. Length‐Weight (LWR) relationships for Andinoacara stalsbergi, Trichomycterus punctulatus, Basilichthys archaeus and Poecilia reticulata are provided for the first time, contributing information towards the effort to conserve freshwater fishes.     

Lights and shadows in consequential LCA

Purpose

Consequential LCA (CLCA) is becoming widely used in the scientific community as a modelling technique which describes the consequences of a decision. However, despite the increasing number of case studies published, a proper systematization of the approach has not yet been achieved. This paper investigates the methodological implications of CLCA and the extent to which the applications are in line with the theoretical dictates. Moreover, the predictive and explorative nature of CLCA is discussed, highlighting the role of scenario modelling in further structuring the methodology.

Methods

An extensive literature review was performed, involving around 60 articles published over a period of approximately 18?years, and addressing both methodological issues and applications. The information was elaborated according to two main aspects: what for (questions and modes of LCA) and what (methodological implications of CLCA), with focus on the nature of modelling and on the identification of the affected processes.

Results and discussion

The analysis points out that since the modelling principles of attributional LCA (ALCA) and CLCA are the same, what distinguishes the two modes of LCA is the choice of the processes to be included in the system (i.e. in CLCA, those that are affected by the market dynamics). However, the identification of those processes is often done inconsistently, using different arguments, which leads to different results. We suggest the use of scenario modelling as a way to support CLCA in providing a scientifically sound basis to model specific product-related futures with respect to technology development, market shift, and other variables.

Conclusions

The CLCA is a sophisticated modelling technique that provides a way to assess the environmental consequences of an action/decision by including market mechanisms into the analysis. There is still room for improvements of the method and for further research, especially in relation to the following aspects: clarifying when and which market information is important and necessary; understanding the role of scenario modelling within CLCA; and developing a procedure to support the framing of questions to better link questions to models. Moreover, we suggest that the logic of mechanisms could be the reading guide for overcoming the dispute between ALCA and CLCA. Going further, this logic could also be extended, considering CLCA as an approach??rather than as a modelling principle with defined rules??to deepen LCA, providing the conceptual basis for including more mechanisms than just the market ones.     

Effects of pasture conversion to sugarcane for biofuel production on stream fish assemblages in tropical agroecosystems

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Molecular basis of intercellular adhesion in the biofilm-forming Staphylococcus epidermidis

The Staphylococcus epidermidis genes icaABC are involved in the synthesis of the polysaccharide intercellular adhesin (PIA), which is located mainly on the cell surface, as shown by immunofluorescence studies with PIA-specific antiserum. PIA was shown to be a linear β-1,6-linked glucosaminoglycan composed of at least 130 2-deoxy-2-amino-D-glucopyrano-syl residues of which 80–85% are N-acetylated, the rest being non-N-acetylated and positively charged. A transposon insertion in the icaABC gene cluster (ica, intercellular adhesion) led to the loss of several traits, such as the ability to form a biofilm on a polystyrene surface, cell aggregation, and PIA production. The mutant could be complemented by transformation with the IcaABC-carrying plasmid pCN27. Transfer of pCN27 into the heterologous host Staphylococcus carnosus led to the formation of large cell aggregates, the formation of a biofilm on a glass surface, and PIA expression. The nucleotide sequence of icaABC suggests that the three genes are organized in an operon and that they are co-transcribed from the mapped ica A promoter. Ica A contains four potential transmembrane helices, indicative of a membrane location. The deduced Ica A sequence shows similarity to those of polysaccharide-polymerizing enzymes, the most pronounced being with a Rhizobium meliloti N-acetylglucosaminyltransferase involved in lipo-chitin biosynthesis (22.5% overall identity and 37.4% overall similarity). This similarity suggests that Ica A has N-acetylglucosaminyltransferase activity in the formation     

Estimating 20‐year land‐use change and derived CO2 emissions associated with crops,pasture and forestry in Brazil and each of its 27 states

Land‐use change (LUC) in Brazil has important implications on global climate change, ecosystem services and biodiversity, and agricultural expansion plays a critical role in this process. Concerns over these issues have led to the need for estimating the magnitude and impacts associated with that, which are increasingly reported in the environmental assessment of products. Currently, there is an extensive debate on which methods are more appropriate for estimating LUC and related emissions and regionalized estimates are lacking for Brazil, which is a world leader in agricultural production (e.g. food, fibres and bioenergy). We developed a method for estimating scenarios of past 20‐year LUC and derived CO₂ emission rates associated with 64 crops, pasture and forestry in Brazil as whole and in each of its 27 states, based on time‐series statistics and in accordance with most used carbon‐footprinting standards. The scenarios adopted provide a range between minimum and maximum rates of CO₂ emissions from LUC according to different possibilities of land‐use transitions, which can have large impacts in the results. Specificities of Brazil, like multiple cropping and highly heterogeneous carbon stocks, are also addressed. The highest CO₂ emission rates are observed in the Amazon biome states and crops with the highest rates are those that have undergone expansion in this region. Some states and crops showing large agricultural areas have low emissions associated, especially in southern and eastern Brazil. Native carbon stocks and time of agricultural expansion are the most decisive factors to the patterns of emissions. Some implications on LUC estimation methods and standards and on agri‐environmental policies are discussed.     

Influence of agricultural practice on mobile bla genes: IncI1‐bearing CTX‐M,SHV, CMY and TEM in Escherichia coli from intensive farming soils

Many calls have been made to address antibiotic resistance in an environmental perspective. With this study, we showed the widespread presence of high‐level antibiotic resistant isolates on a collection of non‐susceptible Gram‐negative bacteria (n = 232) recovered from soils. Bacteria were selected using amoxicillin, cefotaxime and imipenem, from sites representing different agricultural practices (extensive, intensive and organic). Striking levels of non‐susceptibility were noticed in intensive soils for norfloxacin (74%), streptomycin (50.7%) and tetracycline (46.6%); indeed, the exposure to intensive agricultural practices constituted a risk factor for non‐susceptibility to many antibiotics, multidrug resistance and production of extended‐spectrum β‐lactamases (ESBL). Analyses of non‐susceptibility highlighted that environmental and clinical bacteria from the same species might not share the same intrinsic resistance patterns, raising concerns for therapy choices in environment‐borne infections. The multiple sequence‐type IncI1‐driven spread of penicillinases (bla_TEM‐1, bla_TEM‐135), ESBL (bla_SHV‐12 and bla_CTX‐M‐1) and plasmid‐mediated AmpC β‐lactamases (bla_CMY‐2), produced by isolates that share their molecular features with isolates from humans and animals, suggests contamination of agricultural soils. This is also the first appearance of IncI1/ST28‐harbouring bla_CTX‐M‐1, which should be monitored to prevent their establishment as successfully dispersed plasmids. This research may help disclose paths of contamination by mobile antibiotic resistance determinants and the risks for their dissemination.     

Accelerating forest loss in Southeast Asian Massif in the 21st century: A case study in Nan Province,Thailand

Farmers are carving a new agricultural frontier from the forests in the Southeast Asian Massif (SAM) in the 21st century, triggering significant environment degradation at the local scale; however, this frontier has been missed by existing global land use and forest loss analyses. In this paper, we chose Thailand's Nan Province, which is located in the geometric center of SAM, as a case study, and combined high resolution forest cover change product with a fine‐scale land cover map to investigate land use dynamics with respect to topography in this region. Our results show that total forest loss in Nan Province during 2001–2016 was 66,072 ha (9.1% of the forest cover in 2000), and that the majority of this lost forest (92%) had been converted into crop (mainly corn) fields by 2017. Annual forest loss is significantly correlated with global corn price (p < 0.01), re‐confirming agricultural expansion as a key driver of forest loss in Nan Province. Along with the increasing global corn price, forest loss in Nan Province has accelerated at a rate of 2,616 ± 730 ha per decade (p < 0.01). Global corn price peaked in 2012, in which year annual forest loss also reached its peak (7,523 ha); since then, the location of forest loss has moved to steeper land at higher elevations. Spatially, forest loss driven by this smallholder agricultural expansion emerges as many small patches that are not recognizable even at a moderate spatial resolution (e.g. 300 m). It explains how existing global land use/cover change products have missed the widespread and rapid forest loss in SAM. It also highlights the importance of high‐resolution observations to evaluate the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion and forest loss in SAM, including, but not limited to, the impacts on the global carbon cycle, regional hydrology, and local environmental degradation.     

Impacts of human activity and climate change on the distribution of snub‐nosed monkeys in China during the past 2000 years

Aim

In this article, we analysed two millennia of historical records and environmental information to reconstruct the past distribution and examine the current distribution of snub‐nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus) in China.

Location

China.

Methods

We applied trend surface analysis (TSA) to document patterns of range shifting in snub‐nosed monkeys over time. Random forest was used to study the association between explanatory variables and changes in the distribution of snub‐nosed monkeys over the past 2000 years.

Results

Our results showed that both the longitude and latitude of snub‐nosed monkeys contracted from 0 to 2000 AD. We found that the integrated effects of human population size and changes in temperature in the Northern Hemisphere resulted in a westward and northward contraction of the snub‐nosed monkey distributional range. However, the impact of fluctuating temperature was greatest during periods of low human population density (0–1200 AD), whereas from 1200 to 2000 AD, marked increases in human population size in China leading to extensive deforestation, agricultural expansion, hunting, logging and land terracing have had the greatest negative effects. Further analyses highlighted the fact that the rapid expansion of human population density in regions occupied by snub‐nosed monkeys between 1700 and 2000 has resulted in the recent extirpation of this primate radiation in eastern, south‐eastern and central China.

Main conclusions

We examined the interactive effects of human population growth, deforestation, agricultural expansion and climate variation on the past and current distribution of snub‐nosed monkeys. Our data provide clear evidence that climate change, human population increase and human activities have differentially affected the viability and distribution of snub‐nosed monkey populations over time. In particular, the marked expansion of the human population in China over the past 300 years has resulted in the extinction of Rhinopithecus populations across much of its range.     

Hydrologic and edaphic constraints on Schoenoplectus acutus,Schoenoplectus californicus,and Typha latifolia in tidal marsh restoration

The demand for an improved knowledge base for planning and management of tidal marsh restoration worldwide has become more fully recognized. In the Sacramento‐San Joaquin Bay Delta, California, U.S.A., concerns have arisen about the degradation of the Delta and key ecosystem services. One restoration method proposed includes intentionally breaching levees that protect agricultural lands to re‐establish a hydrology that encourages tidal marsh development. Our research investigated relevant constraints on vegetation establishment and expansion of key tidal marsh species. We transplanted three macrophyte species (Schoenoplectus acutus, Schoenoplectus californicus, and Typha latifolia) using two transplant types (rhizomes and adults) in locations that varied in hydrologic and edaphic conditions at Liberty Island, a post‐levee breach tidal marsh restoration site. Two years of monitoring revealed that transplanted adults outperformed rhizomes. In addition, S. californicus exhibited greater survival and vegetation expansion. S. californicus vegetation expansion covered a maximum area of approximately 23 m², which is two orders of magnitude (OOM) greater than the maximum area covered by S. acutus (approximately 0.108 m²) and three OOM greater than T. latifolia (approximately 0.035 m²). Results suggest that hydrologic regime and degree of soil compaction are influential in controlling vegetation establishment and expansion. Greater vegetation expansion occurred in transplant sites characterized by a deeper surface layer of non‐compacted soil in conjunction with shorter durations of flooding. Information derived from this study is valuable to restoration planning in the Delta and other tidal marshes worldwide where these species occur, especially in terms of setting restoration goals and trajectories based on site‐specific environmental characteristics.     

Forecasting the pattern and pace of Fagus forest expansion in Majella National Park,Italy

Question: Can the pattern and pace of spontaneous Fagus forest expansion from 1975 to 2003 be accurately detected with mid‐resolution satellite imagery? Can the historical Fagus expansion be modelled on the basis of environmental predictors? If so, where are the highest probabilities for future Fagus expansion? What are the implications for park management? Location: Majella National Park, Italy, > 1000 m a.s.l.; municipalities of S. Eufemia and Pacentro. Methods: Fagus cover change was detected by overlaying three classified sequential satellite images. Historical Fagus expansion was related to environmental variables using ordinary logistic and autologistic regression models. Fagus expansion probabilities were generated with the best predictive model. Results: From 1975 to 2003 Fagus advanced into abandoned farmland and subalpine pastures from the contiguous, midaltitudinal Fagus forest and from Fagus outliers, at a rate of 1.2 % per year. Substantial spatial and temporal variations in expansion rates were detected. The ordinary and autologistic models based on the single predictor Distance‐from‐Fagus‐1975 forecasted the Fagus expansion well (AUC 0.81 resp. 0.88). Multiple logistic models, including the topo‐climatic and substrate predictors, improved prediction insignificantly. The strong predictive power of proximity to historical Fagus presence is explained by the dispersal biology of Fagus combined with the shading impact of the Fagus canopy at the forest fringe. Conclusion: Decade‐long Fagus expansion patterns might be reliably forecasted by proximity to historical Fagus distribution. Consequences for park management options are outlined.     

Most probable number methodology for quantifying dilute concentrations and fluxes of Salmonella in surface waters

Aims: To better understand and manage the fate and transport of Salmonella in agricultural watersheds, we developed a culture‐based, five tube–four dilution most probable number (MPN) method for enumerating dilute densities of Salmonella in environmental waters. Methods and Results: The MPN method was a combination of a filtration technique for large sample volumes of environmental water, standard selective media for Salmonella and a TaqMan confirmation step. This method has determined the density of Salmonella in 20‐l samples of pond inflow and outflow streams as low as 0·1 MPN l^?1 and a low 95% confidence level 0·015 MPN l^?1. Salmonella densities ranged from not detectable to 0·55 MPN l^?1 for pond inflow samples and from not detectable to 3·4 MPN l^?1 for pond outflow samples. Salmonella densities of pond inflow samples were associated with densities of Escherichia coli and faecal enterococci that indicated stream contamination with faeces and with nondetectable pond outflow densities of the faecal indicator bacteria. The MPN methodology was extended to flux determinations by integrating with volumetric measurements of pond inflow (mean flux of 2·5 l s^?1) and outflow (mean flux of 5·6 l s^?1). Fluxes of Salmonella ranged from 100 to greater than 10⁴ MPN h^?1. Conclusions: This is a culture‐based method that can detect small numbers of Salmonella in environmental waters of watersheds containing animal husbandry and wildlife. Significance and Impact of the Study: Applying this method to environmental waters will improve our understanding of the transport and fate of Salmonella in agricultural watersheds, and can be the basis of valuable collections of environmental Salmonella.     

A method for calculating a land‐use change carbon footprint (LUC‐CFP) for agricultural commodities – applications to Brazilian beef and soy,Indonesian palm oil

The world's agricultural system has come under increasing scrutiny recently as an important driver of global climate change, creating a demand for indicators that estimate the climatic impacts of agricultural commodities. Such carbon footprints, however, have in most cases excluded emissions from land‐use change and the proposed methodologies for including this significant emissions source suffer from different shortcomings. Here, we propose a new methodology for calculating land‐use change carbon footprints for agricultural commodities and illustrate this methodology by applying it to three of the most prominent agricultural commodities driving tropical deforestation: Brazilian beef and soybeans, and Indonesian palm oil. We estimate land‐use change carbon footprints in 2010 to be 66 tCO₂/t meat (carcass weight) for Brazilian beef, 0.89 tCO₂/t for Brazilian soybeans, and 7.5 tCO₂/t for Indonesian palm oil, using a 10 year amortization period. The main advantage of the proposed methodology is its flexibility: it can be applied in a tiered approach, using detailed data where it is available while still allowing for estimation of footprints for a broad set of countries and agricultural commodities; it can be applied at different scales, estimating both national and subnational footprints; it can be adopted to account both for direct (proximate) and indirect drivers of land‐use change. It is argued that with an increasing commercialization and globalization of the drivers of land‐use change, the proposed carbon footprint methodology could help leverage the power needed to alter environmentally destructive land‐use practices within the global agricultural system by providing a tool for assessing the environmental impacts of production, thereby informing consumers about the impacts of consumption and incentivizing producers to become more environmentally responsible.