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1.
Critical transitions are qualitative changes of state that occur when a stochastic dynamical system is forced through a critical point. Many critical transitions are preceded by characteristic fluctuations that may serve as model‐independent early warning signals, implying that these events may be predictable in applications ranging from physics to biology. In nonbiological systems, the strength of such early warning signals has been shown partly to be determined by the speed at which the transition occurs. It is currently unknown whether biological systems, which are inherently high dimensional and typically display low signal‐to‐noise ratios, also exhibit this property, which would have important implications for how ecosystems are managed, particularly where the forces exerted on a system are anthropogenic. We examine whether the rate of forcing can alter the strength of early warning signals in (1) a model exhibiting a fold bifurcation where a state shift is driven by the harvesting of individuals, and (2) a model exhibiting a transcritical bifurcation where a state shift is driven by increased grazing pressure. These models predict that the rate of forcing can alter the detectability of early warning signals regardless of the underlying bifurcation the system exhibits, but that this result may be more pronounced in fold bifurcations. These findings have important implications for the management of biological populations, particularly harvested systems such as fisheries, and suggest that knowing the class of bifurcations a system will manifest may help discriminate between true‐positive and false‐positive signals. 相似文献
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Vasilis Dakos Stephen R. Carpenter Egbert H. van Nes Marten Scheffer 《Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences》2015,370(1659)
In the vicinity of tipping points—or more precisely bifurcation points—ecosystems recover slowly from small perturbations. Such slowness may be interpreted as a sign of low resilience in the sense that the ecosystem could easily be tipped through a critical transition into a contrasting state. Indicators of this phenomenon of ‘critical slowing down (CSD)’ include a rise in temporal correlation and variance. Such indicators of CSD can provide an early warning signal of a nearby tipping point. Or, they may offer a possibility to rank reefs, lakes or other ecosystems according to their resilience. The fact that CSD may happen across a wide range of complex ecosystems close to tipping points implies a powerful generality. However, indicators of CSD are not manifested in all cases where regime shifts occur. This is because not all regime shifts are associated with tipping points. Here, we review the exploding literature about this issue to provide guidance on what to expect and what not to expect when it comes to the CSD-based early warning signals for critical transitions. 相似文献
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In the face of global biodiversity declines, predicting the fate of biological systems is a key goal in ecology. One popular approach is the search for early warning signals (EWSs) based on alternative stable states theory. In this review, we cover the theory behind nonlinearity in dynamic systems and techniques to detect the loss of resilience that can indicate state transitions. We describe the research done on generic abundance‐based signals of instability that are derived from the phenomenon of critical slowing down, which represent the genesis of EWSs research. We highlight some of the issues facing the detection of such signals in biological systems – which are inherently complex and show low signal‐to‐noise ratios. We then document research on alternative signals of instability, including measuring shifts in spatial autocorrelation and trait dynamics, and discuss potential future directions for EWSs research based on detailed demographic and phenotypic data. We set EWSs research in the greater field of predictive ecology and weigh up the costs and benefits of simplicity vs. complexity in predictive models, and how the available data should steer the development of future methods. Finally, we identify some key unanswered questions that, if solved, could improve the applicability of these methods. 相似文献
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Early warning signals (EWS) are statistical indicators that a rapid regime shift may be forthcoming. Their development has given ecologists hope of predicting rapid regime shifts before they occur. Accurate predictions, however, rely on the signals being appropriate to the system in question. Most of the EWS commonly applied in ecology have been studied in the context of one specific type of regime shift (the type brought on by a saddle‐node bifurcation, at which one stable equilibrium point collides with an unstable equilibrium and disappears) under one particular perturbation scheme (temporally uncorrelated noise that perturbs the net population growth rate in a density independent way). Whether and when these EWS can be applied to other ecological situations remains relatively unknown, and certainly underappreciated. We study a range of models with different types of dynamical transitions (including rapid regime shifts) and several perturbation schemes (density‐dependent uncorrelated or temporally‐correlated noise) and test the ability of EWS to warn of an approaching transition. We also test the sensitivity of our results to the amount of available pre‐transition data and various decisions that must be made in the analysis (i.e. the rolling window size and smoothing bandwidth used to compute the EWS). We find that EWS generally work well to signal an impending saddle‐node bifurcation, regardless of the autocorrelation or intensity of the noise. However, EWS do not reliably appear as expected for other types of transition. EWS were often very sensitive to the length of the pre‐transition time series analyzed, and usually less sensitive to other decisions. We conclude that the EWS perform well for saddle‐node bifurcation in a range of noise environments, but different methods should be used to predict other types of regime shifts. As a consequence, knowledge of the mechanism behind a possible regime shift is needed before EWS can be used to predict it. 相似文献
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在气候变化、人类活动等影响下,生态系统结构和功能可能发生大规模的突变,导致生态系统从一个相对稳定的状态进入另一个稳定状态,这种现象称为稳态转换。由于生态系统的复杂性,准确刻画生态系统多稳态并界定其临界点尚存在挑战,提升对生态系统稳态转换的检测和预测能力依旧是生态学领域研究的热点和难题。基于多稳态理论和稳态转换经典概念框架,阐释了稳态转换检测的理论基础;归纳总结出四种稳态转换检测方法的原理和优劣势;鉴于稳态转换的尺度依赖性,梳理了单一生态系统、区域综合生态系统和全球生态系统不同尺度下的稳态转换检测方法、研究思路和应用案例。基于研究进展和问题现状,提出在未来研究中,亟待发展适应复杂系统的综合检测方法;创新稳态转换多尺度分析的技术方法体系;深化生态系统稳态转换驱动机制研究,构建多元耦合机理模型;进而深化稳态转换检测结果链接生态系统管理的实践研究;解析生态系统服务和可持续发展机制。 相似文献
6.
Carl Boettiger Alan Hastings 《Proceedings. Biological sciences / The Royal Society》2012,279(1748):4734-4739
Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here, we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces—a statistical error often known as the prosecutor''s fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false-positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than those more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely. 相似文献
7.
Empirical evidence for large-scale abrupt changes in ecosystems such as lakes and vegetation of semi-arid regions is growing. Such changes, called regime shifts, can lead to degradation of ecological services. We study simple ecological models that show a catastrophic transition as a control parameter is varied and propose a novel early warning signal that exploits two ubiquitous features of ecological systems: nonlinearity and large external fluctuations. Either reduced resilience or increased external fluctuations can tip ecosystems to an alternative stable state. It is shown that changes in asymmetry in the distribution of time series data, quantified by changing skewness, is a model-independent and reliable early warning signal for both routes to regime shifts. Furthermore, using model simulations that mimic field measurements and a simple analysis of real data from abrupt climate change in the Sahara, we study the feasibility of skewness calculations using data available from routine monitoring. 相似文献
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在多稳态的生态系统中,外力可能导致生态系统状态突然之间发生不可逆转的转变,从而达到一个新的平衡状态。但目前对多稳态理论的系统研究很少,如何使用预警信号来预测生态系统的状态转变依旧是个难题。通过多稳态理论的梳理提出了一个更加综合的多稳态定义,并以放牧模型为例,系统总结了多稳态理论的相关概念,将多稳态理论应用在生态系统演替和扰沌理论的解释中;通过对生态系统稳态转换预警信号的原理、优缺点和应用条件的分析,对不同尺度下多稳态的研究方法进行了归纳;最后提出了目前多稳态领域的研究问题和未来的研究重点。结果表明:(1)将时间和空间预警信号结合在一起,并量化正确预警信号的概率,对错误预警信号的比例进行加权,可能会提供更准确的稳态转换的预报。(2)定量观测试验适用于小尺度的研究,而较大尺度的研究则采用简化的模型来模拟研究,选择正确的尺度极有可能改变预警信号的可靠性。(3)结合多稳态理论研究生态系统临界转换和反馈控制机制,并将基于性状的特征指标和进化动力学纳入其中,是生态系统修复实践的重要研究方向。(4)将多稳态相关理论和生态保护管理政策的实践相结合,是多稳态理论未来应用的前景。本研究为多稳态理论和实践的... 相似文献
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Critical slowing down (CSD) reflects the decline in resilience of equilibria near a bifurcation and may reveal early warning signals (EWS) of ecological phase transitions. We studied CSD in the recruitment dynamics of 120 stocks of three Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) species in relation to critical transitions in fishery models. Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) exhibited increased variability and autocorrelation in populations that had a growth parameter, r, close to zero, consistent with EWS of extinction. However, models and data for sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) indicate that portfolio effects from heterogeneity in age-at-maturity may obscure EWS. Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) show intermediate results. The data do not reveal EWS of Ricker-type bifurcations that cause oscillations and chaos at high r. These results not only provide empirical support for CSD in some ecological systems, but also indicate that portfolio effects of age structure may conceal EWS of some critical transitions. 相似文献
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Robbin Bastiaansen Arjen Doelman Maarten B. Eppinga Max Rietkerk 《Ecology letters》2020,23(3):414-429
In a rapidly changing world, quantifying ecosystem resilience is an important challenge. Historically, resilience has been defined via models that do not take spatial effects into account. These systems can only adapt via uniform adjustments. In reality, however, the response is not necessarily uniform, and can lead to the formation of (self‐organised) spatial patterns – typically localised vegetation patches. Classical measures of resilience cannot capture the emerging dynamics in spatially self‐organised systems, including transitions between patterned states that have limited impact on ecosystem structure and productivity. We present a framework of interlinked phase portraits that appropriately quantifies the resilience of patterned states, which depends on the number of patches, the distances between them and environmental conditions. We show how classical resilience concepts fail to distinguish between small and large pattern transitions, and find that the variance in interpatch distances provides a suitable indicator for the type of imminent transition. Subsequently, we describe the dependency of ecosystem degradation based on the rate of climatic change: slow change leads to sporadic, large transitions, whereas fast change causes a rapid sequence of smaller transitions. Finally, we discuss how pre‐emptive removal of patches can minimise productivity losses during pattern transitions, constituting a viable conservation strategy. 相似文献
13.
浅水湖泊水体底泥交换强烈,极易受人类活动干扰,超过一定阈值即可能发生灾难性的稳态转换,对其有效识别有助于湖泊富营养化的及时防控与修复。浅水湖泊稳态转换可通过系统关键变量(叶绿素、溶解氧、浮游动物、鱼类等)的时间序列(判别不同稳态)、预警信号及阈值等进行识别,其中预警识别可为湖泊生态系统稳态转换提供预判信息,有利于早预警早行动。目前,浅水湖泊稳态转换预警识别因子(方差及自相关性等)主要用于\"临界慢化\"现象,但在强大外力作用、强烈随机扰动及极端事件下,这些\"临界慢化\"因子则可能出现误用或错用。基于浅水湖泊基本特征,针对稳态转换的不同驱动机制,探讨\"临界慢化\"因子的适用性与局限性,并展望其未来发展方向,旨在为湖泊生态系统稳态转换预警识别提供科学参考。 相似文献
14.
Michiel P. Veldhuis;Ricardo Martinez-Garcia;Vincent Deblauwe;Vasilis Dakos; 《Ecography》2022,2022(10):e06139
Regular vegetation patterns have been predicted to indicate a system slowing down and possibly desertification of drylands. However, these predictions have not yet been observed in dryland vegetation due to the inherent logistic difficulty to gather longer-term in situ data. Here, we evaluate the theoretical prediction that regular vegetation patterns are associated with empirically derived temporal indicators (autocorrelation, variance, responsiveness) of critical slowing down in a dryland ecosystem in Sudan using different remote sensing products. 相似文献
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基于临界慢化模型,利用长时间序列叶面积指数(GLASS LAI)数据,进行时间序列分解后,计算了LAI及其时间自相关指数作为指标,对三峡库区植被及其恢复力进行监测,通过案例模型对临界慢化模型精度进行了验证,分析了三峡库区植被及其植被恢复力的时空分布特征,探索基于临界慢化模型的植被恢复力遥感定量估算方法的适用性。结果表明：(1)2000—2018年三峡库区LAI平均值为3.4,重庆段LAI较低,湖北段LAI较高;三峡库区LAI整体呈上升趋势,重庆段LAI呈现降低趋势,显著下降区域占重庆段面积的21.75%,湖北段LAI呈现升高趋势,显著上升区域占湖北段面积的21.22%;(2)2000—2018年三峡库区重庆市北碚区、大渡口区、渝北区植被恢复力较低,宜昌市兴山县、夷陵区、点军区植被恢复力较高;(3)模型精度方面,在两个地质灾害扰动事件中案例模型结果与临界慢化模型结果呈现较高的一致性。本文对三峡库区2000—2018年的植被恢复力进行了定量估算,同时通过案例模型对临界慢化模型在恢复力监测上的有效性进行了验证,为三峡库区制定相应生态环境管理决策提供理论基础,为保障西南地区生态安全提供决策依据... 相似文献
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Ryan P. Kelly Ashley L. Erickson Lindley A. Mease Willow Battista John N. Kittinger Rod Fujita 《Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences》2015,370(1659)
Three decades of study have revealed dozens of examples in which natural systems have crossed biophysical thresholds (‘tipping points’)—nonlinear changes in ecosystem structure and function—as a result of human-induced stressors, dramatically altering ecosystem function and services. Environmental management that avoids such thresholds could prevent severe social, economic and environmental impacts. Here, we review management measures implemented in ecological systems that have thresholds. Using Ostrom''s social–ecological systems framework, we analysed key biophysical and institutional factors associated with 51 social–ecological systems and associated management regimes, and related these to management success defined by ecological outcomes. We categorized cases as instances of prospective or retrospective management, based upon whether management aimed to avoid a threshold or to restore systems that have crossed a threshold. We find that smaller systems are more amenable to threshold-based management, that routine monitoring is associated with successful avoidance of thresholds and recovery after thresholds have been crossed, and that success is associated with the explicit threshold-based management. These findings are powerful evidence for the policy relevance of information on ecological thresholds across a wide range of ecosystems. 相似文献
17.
人类活动和气候变化对植被内部组分的相互作用和反馈机制产生显著而持续的影响,导致植被生态系统状态发生变化。目前围绕植被生态系统多稳态及稳态转换已经形成一系列理论和实证层面的成果。以人类活动和气候变化为特定干扰域,对植被生态系统稳态转换的理论基础演变进行综述,并从机理层面解析植被结构-功能-状态响应过程;系统梳理植被稳态转换的阈值效应,识别出可能指示生态阈值的驱动力-响应关系;最后,从临界域视角整合植被生态系统稳态转换的信号特征,包括临界慢化、空间关系异常和斑块规律性构型等。在对目前研究不足和未来研究重点进行归纳分析的基础上,主张基于阈值的植被生态系统管理路径,但需要建立在认知植被临界响应机制和非线性自组织规律的前提之上。 相似文献
18.
Ilaíne S. Matos Bernardo M. Flores Marina Hirota Bruno H. P. Rosado 《Ecology and evolution》2020,10(5):2695-2704
As a result of climate and land‐use changes, grasslands have been subjected to intensifying drought regimes. Extreme droughts could interfere in the positive feedbacks between grasses and soil water content, pushing grasslands across critical thresholds of productivity and leading them to collapse. If this happens, systems may show hysteresis and costly management interventions might be necessary to restore predrought productivity. Thus, neglecting critical transitions may lead to mismanagement of grasslands and to irreversible loss of ecosystem services. Rainfall manipulation experiments constitute a powerful approach to investigate the risk of such critical transitions. However, experiments performed to date have rarely applied extreme droughts and have used resilience indices that disregard the existence of hysteresis. Here, we suggest how to incorporate critical transitions when designing rainfall manipulation experiments on grasslands and when measuring their resilience to drought. The ideas presented here have the potential to trigger a perspective shift among experimental researchers, into a new state where the existence of critical transitions will be discussed, experimentally tested, and largely considered when assessing and managing vegetation resilience to global changes. 相似文献
19.
Romana Limberger Uriah Daugaard Anubhav Gupta Rainer M. Krug Kimberley D. Lemmen Sofia J. van Moorsel Marcel Suleiman Debra Zuppinger-Dingley Owen L. Petchey 《Ecology letters》2023,26(6):883-895
Biodiversity may increase ecosystem resilience. However, we have limited understanding if this holds true for ecosystems that respond to gradual environmental change with abrupt shifts to an alternative state. We used a mathematical model of anoxic–oxic regime shifts and explored how trait diversity in three groups of bacteria influences resilience. We found that trait diversity did not always increase resilience: greater diversity in two of the groups increased but in one group decreased resilience of their preferred ecosystem state. We also found that simultaneous trait diversity in multiple groups often led to reduced or erased diversity effects. Overall, our results suggest that higher diversity can increase resilience but can also promote collapse when diversity occurs in a functional group that negatively influences the state it occurs in. We propose this mechanism as a potential management approach to facilitate the recovery of a desired ecosystem state. 相似文献
20.
Franziska Koch;Britta Tietjen;Katja Tielbörger;Korinna T. Allhoff; 《Oikos》2023,2023(3):e09462
Savannas are characterized by the coexistence of two contrasting plant life-forms: woody and herbaceous vegetation. During the last decades, there has been a global trend of an increase in woody cover and the spread of shrubs and trees into areas that were previously dominated by grasses. This process, termed bush encroachment, is associated with severe losses of ecosystem functions and typically difficult to reverse. It is assumed to be an example of a critical transition between two alternative stable states. Overgrazing due to unsustainable rangeland management has been identified as one of the main causes of this transition, as it can trigger several self-reinforcing feedback loops. However, the dynamic role of grazing within such feedback loops has received less attention. We used a set of coupled differential equations to describe the competition between shrubs and grasses, as well as plant biomass consumption via grazing and browsing. Grazers were assumed to receive a certain level of care from farmers, so that grazer densities emerge dynamically from the combined effect of vegetation abundance and farmer support. We quantified all self-reinforcing and self-dampening feedback loops at play and analyzed their relative importance in shaping system (in-)stability. Bistability, the presence of a grass dominated and a shrub dominated state, emerges for intermediate levels of farmer support due to positive feedback that arises from competition between shrubs and grasses and from herbivory. We furthermore demonstrate that disturbances, such as drought events, trigger abrupt transitions from the grass dominated to the shrub dominated state and that the system becomes more susceptible to disturbances with increasing farmer support. Our results thus highlight the potential of interaction networks in combinations with feedback loop analysis for improving our understanding of critical transitions in general, and bush encroachment in particular. 相似文献