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1.
    
As atmospheric CO2 levels rise, temperate and boreal forests in the Northern Hemisphere are gaining importance as carbon sinks. Quantification of that role, however, has been difficult due to the confounding effects of climate change. Recent large‐scale experiments with quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides), a dominant species in many northern forest ecosystems, indicate that elevated CO2 levels can enhance net primary production. Field studies also reveal that droughts contribute to extensive aspen mortality. To complement this work, we analyzed how the growth of wild aspen clones in Wisconsin has responded to historical shifts in CO2 and climate, accounting for age, genotype (microsatellite heterozygosity), and other factors. Aspen growth has increased an average of 53% over the past five decades, primarily in response to the 19.2% rise in ambient CO2 levels. CO2‐induced growth is particularly enhanced during periods of high moisture availability. The analysis accounts for the highly nonlinear changes in growth rate with age, and is unaffected by sex or location sampled. Growth also increases with individual heterozygosity, but this heterozygote advantage has not changed with rising levels of CO2 or moisture. Thus, increases in future growth predicted from previous large‐scale, common‐garden work are already evident in this abundant and ecologically important tree species. Owing to aspen's role as a foundation species in many North American forest ecosystems, CO2‐stimulated growth is likely to have repercussions for numerous associated species and ecosystem processes.  相似文献   

2.
Stem radial growth responds to environmental conditions, and has been widely used as a proxy to study long‐term patterns of tree growth and to assess the impact of environmental changes on growth patterns. In this study, we use a tree ring dataset from the Catalan Ecological and Forest Inventory to study the temporal variability of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stem growth during the 20th century across a relatively large region (Catalonia, NE Spain) close to the southern limit of the distribution of the species. Basal area increment (BAI) was modelled as a function of tree size and environmental variables by means of mixed effects models. Our results showed an overall increase of 84% in Scots pine BAI during the 20th century, consistent with most previous studies for temperate forests. This trend was associated with increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and, possibly, with a general increase in nutrient availability, and we interpreted it as a fertilization effect. Over the same time period, there was also a marked increase in temperature across the study region (0.19 °C per decade on average). This warming had a negative impact on radial growth, particularly at the drier sites, but its magnitude was not enough to counteract the fertilization effect. In fact, the substantial warming observed during the 20th century in the study area did not result in a clear pattern of increased summer drought stress because of the large variability in precipitation, which did not show any clear time trend. But the situation may change in the future if temperatures continue to rise and/or precipitation becomes scarcer. Such a change could potentially reverse the temporal trend in growth, particularly at the driest sites, and is suggested in our data by the relative constancy of radial growth after ca. 1975, coinciding with the warmer period. If this situation is representative of other relatively dry, temperate forests, the implications for the regional carbon balance would be substantial.  相似文献   

3.
    
Tree populations at the low‐altitudinal or ‐latitudinal limits of species' distributional ranges are predicted to retreat toward higher altitudes and latitudes to track the ongoing changes in climate. Studies have focused on the climatic sensitivity of the retreating species, whereas little is known about the potential replacements. Competition between tree species in forest ecotones will likely be strongly influenced by the ecophysiological responses to heat and drought. We used tree‐ring widths and δ13C and δ18O chronologies to compare the growth rates and long‐term ecophysiological responses to climate in the temperate‐Mediterranean ecotone formed by the deciduous Fagus sylvatica and the evergreen Quercus ilex at the low altitudinal and southern latitudinal limit of F. sylvatica (NE Iberian Peninsula). F. sylvatica growth rates were similar to those of other southern populations and were surprisingly not higher than those of Q. ilex, which were an order of magnitude higher than those in nearby drier sites. Higher Q. ilex growth rates were associated with high temperatures, which have increased carbon discrimination rates in the last 25 years. In contrast, stomatal regulation in F. sylvatica was proportional to the increase in atmospheric CO2. Tree‐ring δ18O for both species were mostly correlated with δ18O in the source water. In contrast to many previous studies, relative humidity was not negatively correlated with tree‐ring δ18O but had a positive effect on Q. ilex tree‐ring δ18O. Furthermore, tree‐ring δ18O decreased in Q. ilex over time. The sensitivity of Q. ilex to climate likely reflects the uptake of deep water that allowed it to benefit from the effect of CO2 fertilization, in contrast to the water‐limited F. sylvatica. Consequently, Q. ilex is a strong competitor at sites currently dominated by F. sylvatica and could be favored by increasingly warmer conditions.  相似文献   

4.
    
二氧化碳浓度增加和气候变暖导致太白山林线树木生长与氮有效性关系减弱全球气候变暖、大气二氧化碳浓度(Ca)升高和氮有效性正对全球森林生态系统产生深远影响,尤其是在高海拔林线地区。本研究结合树木生长指标和树轮稳定同位素指标,探讨了太白山林线树种太白红杉(Larix chinensis)对环境胁迫的生理生态响应。研究结果表明,近60年来太白红杉的生长速度显著增加,且该林线树木生长对春季温度特别敏感。太白红杉的潜在水分利用效率(iWUE)的持续上升与大气二氧化碳浓度升高和气候变暖紧密相关,共同促进了树木的生长。1851-1964年,树轮δ15N随树木生长速度的加快逐渐增大;1964年之后转变为不显著的下降,打破了原有的碳-氮平衡。分析结果表明,自20世纪60年代以来气候变暖和iWUE的迅速增加已经取代氮有效性成为树木生长的主要驱动因子。随着树木持续加速生长,氮有效性在未来可能会显著下降甚至供不应求。本研究深入揭示了植物对生长环境变化响应的生理生态机制,这将提高我们预测未来高海拔地区森林生态系统演变的能力。  相似文献   

5.
Temperate and boreal forest ecosystems contain a large part of the carbon stored on land, in the form of both biomass and soil organic matter. Increasing atmospheric [CO2], increasing temperature, elevated nitrogen deposition and intensified management will change this C store. Well documented single-factor responses of net primary production are: higher photosynthetic rate (the main [CO2] response); increasing length of growing season (the main temperature response); and higher leaf-area index (the main N deposition and partly [CO2] response). Soil organic matter will increase with increasing litter input, although priming may decrease the soil C stock initially, but litter quality effects should be minimal (response to [CO2], N deposition, and temperature); will decrease because of increasing temperature; and will increase because of retardation of decomposition with N deposition, although the rate of decomposition of high-quality litter can be increased and that of low-quality litter decreased. Single-factor responses can be misleading because of interactions between factors, in particular those between N and other factors, and indirect effects such as increased N availability from temperature-induced decomposition. In the long term the strength of feedbacks, for example the increasing demand for N from increased growth, will dominate over short-term responses to single factors. However, management has considerable potential for controlling the C store.  相似文献   

6.
    
Anthropogenic activities such as uncontrolled deforestation and increasing greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for triggering a series of environmental imbalances that affect the Earth's complex climate dynamics. As a consequence of these changes, several climate models forecast an intensification of extreme weather events over the upcoming decades, including heat waves and increasingly severe drought and flood episodes. The occurrence of such extreme weather will prompt profound changes in several plant communities, resulting in massive forest dieback events that can trigger a massive loss of biodiversity in several biomes worldwide. Despite the gravity of the situation, our knowledge regarding how extreme weather events can undermine the performance, survival, and distribution of forest species remains very fragmented. Therefore, the present review aimed to provide a broad and integrated perspective of the main biochemical, physiological, and morpho‐anatomical disorders that may compromise the performance and survival of forest species exposed to climate change factors, particularly drought, flooding, and global warming. In addition, we also discuss the controversial effects of high CO2 concentrations in enhancing plant growth and reducing the deleterious effects of some extreme climatic events. We conclude with a discussion about the possible effects that the factors associated with the climate change might have on species distribution and forest composition.  相似文献   

7.
    
Tree‐rings offer one of the few possibilities to empirically quantify and reconstruct forest growth dynamics over years to millennia. Contemporaneously with the growing scientific community employing tree‐ring parameters, recent research has suggested that commonly applied sampling designs (i.e. how and which trees are selected for dendrochronological sampling) may introduce considerable biases in quantifications of forest responses to environmental change. To date, a systematic assessment of the consequences of sampling design on dendroecological and‐climatological conclusions has not yet been performed. Here, we investigate potential biases by sampling a large population of trees and replicating diverse sampling designs. This is achieved by retroactively subsetting the population and specifically testing for biases emerging for climate reconstruction, growth response to climate variability, long‐term growth trends, and quantification of forest productivity. We find that commonly applied sampling designs can impart systematic biases of varying magnitude to any type of tree‐ring‐based investigations, independent of the total number of samples considered. Quantifications of forest growth and productivity are particularly susceptible to biases, whereas growth responses to short‐term climate variability are less affected by the choice of sampling design. The world's most frequently applied sampling design, focusing on dominant trees only, can bias absolute growth rates by up to 459% and trends in excess of 200%. Our findings challenge paradigms, where a subset of samples is typically considered to be representative for the entire population. The only two sampling strategies meeting the requirements for all types of investigations are the (i) sampling of all individuals within a fixed area; and (ii) fully randomized selection of trees. This result advertises the consistent implementation of a widely applicable sampling design to simultaneously reduce uncertainties in tree‐ring‐based quantifications of forest growth and increase the comparability of datasets beyond individual studies, investigators, laboratories, and geographical boundaries.  相似文献   

8.
Moss-rich terrestrial communities are widely distributed in low- and high-latitude environments, covering vast surface areas in the boreal forests and tundra. The microbial biota in these organic-rich communities may contribute substantially to the carbon budget of terrestrial communities and the carbon cycle on a global scale. Recent research is reported on the carbon content of microbial communities in some temperate and high-latitude moss communities. The total carbon content and potential respiratory carbon dioxide (CO(2)) efflux is reported for bacteria, microflagellates, naked amoebae, and testate amoebae within sampling sites at a northeastern forest and the tundra at Toolik, Alaska. Quantitative models of the predicted total CO(2) efflux from the microbes, based on microscopic observations and enumeration of the microbiota in samples from the research sites, are described and predictions are compared with published field-based data of CO(2) efflux. The significance of the predictions for climate change and global warming are discussed.  相似文献   

9.
We present evidence of a recent drying in the eastern Mediterranean, based on weather and tree‐ring data for Samos, an island of the eastern Aegean Sea. Rainfall declined rapidly after the late 1970s following trends for the entire Mediterranean and was associated with reduced tree‐ring width in Pinus brutia. The most recent decline led to the lowest annual radial stem increment after the last 100 years (as far as records reach). As moisture availability decreased best correlations of tree growth with rainfall were obtained for progressively longer integration periods (1–2 years in moister periods, 5–6 years during the severe dryness of 20th century's last decades), suggesting increasing dependency in deep soil water. Such long‐term integration periods of tree‐growth responses to precipitation have not been reported before. They may reflect a tree‐rooting pattern adapted to cope with even several successive dry years. In late summer 2000, moisture reserves became exhausted, however, and a substantial fraction of low altitude pines died, including some 80‐year‐old trees, which underlines the exceptional extent this trend had reached. Our findings provide empirical support for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections derived from global circulation models that the Mediterranean, its eastern basin in particular, should become drier as temperature rises, as was the case in the recent past.  相似文献   

10.
    
No consensus has yet been reached on the major factors driving the observed increase in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 in the northern latitudes. In this study, we used atmospheric CO2 records from 26 northern hemisphere stations with a temporal coverage longer than 15 years, and an atmospheric transport model prescribed with net biome productivity (NBP) from an ensemble of nine terrestrial ecosystem models, to attribute change in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2. We found significant (p < .05) increases in seasonal peak‐to‐trough CO2 amplitude (AMPP‐T) at nine stations, and in trough‐to‐peak amplitude (AMPT‐P) at eight stations over the last three decades. Most of the stations that recorded increasing amplitudes are in Arctic and boreal regions (>50°N), consistent with previous observations that the amplitude increased faster at Barrow (Arctic) than at Mauna Loa (subtropics). The multi‐model ensemble mean (MMEM) shows that the response of ecosystem carbon cycling to rising CO2 concentration (eCO2) and climate change are dominant drivers of the increase in AMPP‐T and AMPT‐P in the high latitudes. At the Barrow station, the observed increase of AMPP‐T and AMPT‐P over the last 33 years is explained by eCO2 (39% and 42%) almost equally than by climate change (32% and 35%). The increased carbon losses during the months with a net carbon release in response to eCO2 are associated with higher ecosystem respiration due to the increase in carbon storage caused by eCO2 during carbon uptake period. Air‐sea CO2 fluxes (10% for AMPP‐T and 11% for AMPT‐P) and the impacts of land‐use change (marginally significant 3% for AMPP‐T and 4% for AMPT‐P) also contributed to the CO2 measured at Barrow, highlighting the role of these factors in regulating seasonal changes in the global carbon cycle.  相似文献   

11.
Pinus eldarica L. trees, rooted in the natural soil of an agricultural field at Phoenix, Arizona, were grown from the seedling stage in clear-plastic-wall open-top enclosures maintained at four different atmospheric CO2 concentrations for 15 months. Light response functions were determined for one tree from each treatment by means of whole-tree net CO2 exchange measurements at the end of this period, after which rates of carbon assimilation of an ambient-treatment tree were measured across a range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The first of these data sets incorporates the consequences of both the CO2-induced enhancement of net photosynthesis per unit needle area and the CO2-induced enhancement of needle area itself (due primarily to the production of more needles), whereas the second data set reflects only the first of these effects. Hence the division of the normalized results of the first data set by the normalized results of the second set yields a representation of the increase in whole-tree net photosynthesis due to enhanced needle production caused by atmospheric CO2 enrichment. In the solitary trees we studied, the relative contribution of this effect increased rapidly with the CO2 concentration of the air to increase whole-tree net photosynthesis by nearly 50% at a CO2 concentration approximately 300 μmol mol−1 above ambient.  相似文献   

12.
    
Climate warming is expected to enhance productivity and growth of woody plants, particularly in temperature‐limited environments at the northernmost or uppermost limits of their distribution. However, this warming is spatially uneven and temporally variable, and the rise in temperatures differently affects biomes and growth forms. Here, applying a dendroecological approach with generalized additive mixed models, we analysed how the growth of shrubby junipers and coexisting trees (larch and pine species) responds to rising temperatures along a 5000‐km latitudinal range including sites from the Polar, Alpine to the Mediterranean biomes. We hypothesize that, being more coupled to ground microclimate, junipers will be less influenced by atmospheric conditions and will less respond to the post‐1950 climate warming than coexisting standing trees. Unexpectedly, shrub and tree growth forms revealed divergent growth trends in all the three biomes, with juniper performing better than trees at Mediterranean than at Polar and Alpine sites. The post‐1980s decline of tree growth in Mediterranean sites might be induced by drought stress amplified by climate warming and did not affect junipers. We conclude that different but coexisting long‐living growth forms can respond differently to the same climate factor and that, even in temperature‐limited area, other drivers like the duration of snow cover might locally play a fundamental role on woody plants growth across Europe.  相似文献   

13.
    
Growth response of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) to climate was studied across its local geographical and elevation range in the Olympic Mountains, Washington. A dendroecological analysis of subalpine fir across a range of elevations (1350-1850 m) and annual precipitation (125-350 cm y?1), was used to compare environmental factors affecting growth. Climate-growth relationships were explored using Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients; partial correlation analysis was used to assess relationships among site chronologies and climatic variables. Radial growth is negatively correlated with winter precipitation at high elevation and wet sites, but not at low and middle elevation dry sites. Growth is positively correlated with current growing season temperature at all sites; however, growth is negatively correlated with previous year August temperature, indicating that climate affects growth in subsequent years. Positive correlations between growth and summer precipitation during the growing season at low and middle elevation dry sites suggest that soil moisture is partially limiting to growth on these sites. If the climate of the Pacific Northwest becomes warmer and drier, then subalpine fir growth may increase at high elevation and wet sites, but may decrease at lower elevation dry sites in the Olympic Mountains. However, the growth response of subalpine fir to potentially rapid climate change will not be uniform because subalpine fir grows over a wide range of topographic features, habitats, and local climates at different geographical scales. A comparison of growth response to current growing season temperature suggests that the temperature-related growth response of subalpine fir is not adequately described by the parabolic curve used in JABOWA-based models.  相似文献   

14.
    
The important role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle makes it imperative to assess changes in their carbon dynamics for accurate projections of future climate–vegetation feedbacks. Forest monitoring studies conducted over the past decades have found evidence for both increasing and decreasing growth rates of tropical forest trees. The limited duration of these studies restrained analyses to decadal scales, and it is still unclear whether growth changes occurred over longer time scales, as would be expected if CO2‐fertilization stimulated tree growth. Furthermore, studies have so far dealt with changes in biomass gain at forest‐stand level, but insights into species‐specific growth changes – that ultimately determine community‐level responses – are lacking. Here, we analyse species‐specific growth changes on a centennial scale, using growth data from tree‐ring analysis for 13 tree species (~1300 trees), from three sites distributed across the tropics. We used an established (regional curve standardization) and a new (size‐class isolation) growth‐trend detection method and explicitly assessed the influence of biases on the trend detection. In addition, we assessed whether aggregated trends were present within and across study sites. We found evidence for decreasing growth rates over time for 8–10 species, whereas increases were noted for two species and one showed no trend. Additionally, we found evidence for weak aggregated growth decreases at the site in Thailand and when analysing all sites simultaneously. The observed growth reductions suggest deteriorating growth conditions, perhaps due to warming. However, other causes cannot be excluded, such as recovery from large‐scale disturbances or changing forest dynamics. Our findings contrast growth patterns that would be expected if elevated CO2 would stimulate tree growth. These results suggest that commonly assumed growth increases of tropical forests may not occur, which could lead to erroneous predictions of carbon dynamics of tropical forest under climate change.  相似文献   

15.
    
Understanding responses of forests to increasing CO2 and temperature is an important challenge, but no easy task. Tree rings are increasingly used to study such responses. In a recent study, van der Sleen et al. (2014) Nature Geoscience, 8, 4 used tree rings from 12 tropical tree species and find that despite increases in intrinsic water use efficiency, no growth stimulation is observed. This challenges the idea that increasing CO2 would stimulate growth. Unfortunately, tree ring analysis can be plagued by biases, resulting in spurious growth trends. While their study evaluated several biases, it does not account for all. In particular, one bias may have seriously affected their results. Several of the species have recruitment patterns, which are not uniform, but clustered around one specific year. This results in spurious negative growth trends if growth rates are calculated in fixed size classes, as ‘fast‐growing’ trees reach the sampling diameter earlier compared to slow growers and thus fast growth rates tend to have earlier calendar dates. We assessed the effect of this ‘nonuniform age bias’ on observed growth trends and find that van der Sleen's conclusions of a lack of growth stimulation do not hold. Growth trends are – at least partially – driven by underlying recruitment or age distributions. Species with more clustered age distributions show more negative growth trends, and simulations to estimate the effect of species’ age distributions show growth trends close to those observed. Re‐evaluation of the growth data and correction for the bias result in significant positive growth trends of 1–2% per decade for the full period, and 3–7% since 1950. These observations, however, should be taken cautiously as multiple biases affect these trend estimates. In all, our results highlight that tree ring studies of long‐term growth trends can be strongly influenced by biases if demographic processes are not carefully accounted for.  相似文献   

16.
The global environment is changing with increasing temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, [CO2]. Because these two factors are concomitant, and the global [CO2] rise will affect all biomes across the full global range of temperatures, it is essential to review the theory and observations on effects of temperature and [CO2] interactions on plant carbon balance, growth, development, biomass accumulation and yield. Although there are sound theoretical reasons for expecting a larger stimulation of net CO2 assimilation rates by increased [CO2] at higher temperatures, this does not necessarily mean that the pattern of biomass and yield responses to increasing [CO2] and temperature is determined by this response. This paper reviews the interactions between the effects of [CO2] and temperature on plants. There is little unequivocal evidence for large differences in response to [CO2] at different temperatures, as studies are confounded by the different responses of species adapted and acclimated to different temperatures, and the interspecific differences in growth form and development pattern. We conclude by stressing the importance of initiation and expansion of meristems and organs and the balance between assimilate supply and sink activity in determining the growth response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.  相似文献   

17.
The increasing air temperatures central to climate change predictions have the potential to alter forest ecosystem function and structure by exceeding temperatures optimal for carbon gain. Such changes are projected to threaten survival of sensitive species, leading to local extinctions, range migrations, and altered forest composition. This study investigated photosynthetic sensitivity to temperature and the potential for acclimation in relation to the climatic provenance of five species of deciduous trees, Liquidambar styraciflua, Quercus rubra, Quercus falcata, Betula alleghaniensis, and Populus grandidentata. Open‐top chambers supplied three levels of warming (+0, +2, and +4 °C above ambient) over 3 years, tracking natural temperature variability. Optimal temperature for CO2 assimilation was strongly correlated with daytime temperature in all treatments, but assimilation rates at those optima were comparable. Adjustment of thermal optima was confirmed in all species, whether temperatures varied with season or treatment, and regardless of climate in the species' range or provenance of the plant material. Temperature optima from 17° to 34° were observed. Across species, acclimation potentials varied from 0.55 °C to 1.07 °C per degree change in daytime temperature. Responses to the temperature manipulation were not different from the seasonal acclimation observed in mature indigenous trees, suggesting that photosynthetic responses should not be modeled using static temperature functions, but should incorporate an adjustment to account for acclimation. The high degree of homeostasis observed indicates that direct impacts of climatic warming on forest productivity, species survival, and range limits may be less than predicted by existing models.  相似文献   

18.
    
The Arctic is particularly sensitive to climate change, but the independent effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO2) and temperature on high‐latitude forests are poorly understood. Here, we present a new, annually resolved record of stable carbon isotope (δ13C) data determined from Larix cajanderi tree cores collected from far northeastern Siberia in order to investigate the physiological response of these trees to regional warming. The tree‐ring record, which extends from 1912 through 1961 (50 years), targets early twentieth‐century warming (ETCW), a natural warming event in the 1920s to 1940s that was limited to Northern hemisphere high latitudes. Our data show that net carbon isotope fractionation (Δ13C), decreased by 1.7‰ across the ETCW, which is consistent with increased water stress in response to climate warming and dryer soils. To investigate whether this signal is present across the northern boreal forest, we compiled published carbon isotope data from 14 high‐latitude sites within Europe, Asia, and North America. The resulting dataset covered the entire twentieth century and spanned both natural ETCW and anthropogenic Late Twentieth‐Century Warming (~0.7 °C per decade). After correcting for a ~1‰ increase in Δ13C in response to twentieth century pCO2 rise, a significant negative relationship (r = ?0.53, P < 0.0001) between the average, annual Δ13C values and regional annual temperature anomalies is observed, suggesting a strong control of temperature on the Δ13C value of trees growing at high latitudes. We calculate a 17% increase in intrinsic water‐use efficiency within these forests across the twentieth century, of which approximately half is attributed to a decrease in stomatal conductance in order to conserve water in response to drying conditions, with the other half being attributed to increasing pCO2. We conclude that annual tree‐ring records from northern high‐latitude forests record the effects of climate warming and pCO2 rise across the twentieth century.  相似文献   

19.
20.
Increased atmospheric [CO2] could theoretically lead to increased forest productivity (‘CO2 fertilization’). This mechanism was hypothesized as a possible explanation for biomass increases reported from tropical forests in the last 30+ years. We used unique long‐term records of annually measured stands (eighteen 0.5 ha plots, 10 years) and focal tree species (six species, 24 years) to assess the effects of rainfall, temperature, and atmospheric [CO2] on annual wood production in a neotropical rain forest. Our study area was a meso‐scale section (600 ha) of old‐growth Tropical Wet Forest in NE Costa Rica. Using the repeated remeasurements we directly assessed the relative effects of interannual climatic variation and increasing atmospheric [CO2] on wood production. A remarkably simple two‐factor model explained 91% of the interannual variance in stand‐level tree growth; the statistically independent factors were total dry season rainfall (positive effect, r2=0.85) and night‐time temperature (negative effect, r2=0.42). Stand‐level tree mortality increased significantly with night‐time temperature. After accounting for dry season rainfall and night‐time temperature, there was no effect of annual [CO2] on tree growth in either the stand or focal species data. Tree growth in this Tropical Wet Forest was surprisingly sensitive to the current range of dry season conditions and to variations in mean annual night‐time temperature of 1–2°. Our results suggest that wood production in the lowland rainforests of NE Costa Rica (and by extension in other tropical regions) may be severely reduced in future climates that are only slightly drier and/or warmer.  相似文献   

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