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1.
    
Projections of the response of crop yield to climate change at different spatial scales are known to vary. However, understanding of the causes of systematic differences across scale is limited. Here, we hypothesize that heterogeneous cropping intensity is one source of scale dependency. Analysis of observed global data and regional crop modelling demonstrate that areas of high vs. low cropping intensity can have systematically different yields, in both observations and simulations. Analysis of global crop data suggests that heterogeneity in cropping intensity is a likely source of scale dependency for a number of crops across the globe. Further crop modelling and a meta‐analysis of projected tropical maize yields are used to assess the implications for climate change assessments. The results show that scale dependency is a potential source of systematic bias. We conclude that spatially comprehensive assessments of climate impacts based on yield alone, without accounting for cropping intensity, are prone to systematic overestimation of climate impacts. The findings therefore suggest a need for greater attention to crop suitability and land use change when assessing the impacts of climate change.  相似文献   

2.
    
Stomatal response to environmental conditions forms the backbone of all ecosystem and carbon cycle models, but is largely based on empirical relationships. Evolutionary theories of stomatal behaviour are critical for guarding against prediction errors of empirical models under future climates. Longstanding theory holds that stomata maximise fitness by acting to maintain constant marginal water use efficiency over a given time horizon, but a recent evolutionary theory proposes that stomata instead maximise carbon gain minus carbon costs/risk of hydraulic damage. Using data from 34 species that span global forest biomes, we find that the recent carbon‐maximisation optimisation theory is widely supported, revealing that the evolution of stomatal regulation has not been primarily driven by attainment of constant marginal water use efficiency. Optimal control of stomata to manage hydraulic risk is likely to have significant consequences for ecosystem fluxes during drought, which is critical given projected intensification of the global hydrological cycle.  相似文献   

3.
玉米是我国重要的粮食和饲料作物,旱灾是玉米生产中常见的气象灾害。采用CERES-Maize作物模拟模型,模拟了1961—2010年潜在干旱对我国夏玉米产量影响的时空变化趋势,并分析了其与大气环流因子间的关系,以期了解我国50年来夏玉米受旱的变化情况,并为干旱的研究方法提供一些参考。结果表明:(1)1961—2010年我国夏玉米的潜在产量损失呈略微下降的趋势,不同时期表现不同,其中20世纪60年代、90年代表现为上升趋势。(2)在过去50年里,我国夏玉米潜在旱灾损失中心有向东北移动的趋势,华北地区受旱程度的减轻和东北地区受旱程度的增强是造成损失中心移动的主要原因。(3)我国夏玉米潜在旱灾产量损失中心的经纬度和影响我国夏季降水的北极涡、副热带高压系统的部分指数具有显著的相关关系。当北极涡在生长季前期或同期偏小、偏弱时,我国夏玉米潜在旱灾产量损失中心将偏东、偏北,而副热带高压系统影响更为复杂。  相似文献   

4.
    
Drought‐related tree mortality is now a widespread phenomenon predicted to increase in magnitude with climate change. However, the patterns of which species and trees are most vulnerable to drought, and the underlying mechanisms have remained elusive, in part due to the lack of relevant data and difficulty of predicting the location of catastrophic drought years in advance. We used long‐term demographic records and extensive databases of functional traits and distribution patterns to understand the responses of 20–53 species to an extreme drought in a seasonally dry tropical forest in Costa Rica, which occurred during the 2015 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. Overall, species‐specific mortality rates during the drought ranged from 0% to 34%, and varied little as a function of tree size. By contrast, hydraulic safety margins correlated well with probability of mortality among species, while morphological or leaf economics spectrum traits did not. This firmly suggests hydraulic traits as targets for future research.  相似文献   

5.
董伯纲  于洋  吴秀芹 《生态学报》2022,42(15):6335-6344
气候变化正导致干旱事件发生的强度、频度显著改变,极端气候事件发生的不确定性直接影响陆地生态系统关键生态过程。我国西南地区在2009-2010年发生百年一遇的极端干旱,目前关于植被生长在长时间尺度对此次干旱事件的响应尚不明确。以云南省为研究区,基于多年Normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)影像数据以及长时间序列气象资料对此次极端事件的干旱遗产效应开展研究,分析了干旱遗产效应的持续时间以及不同植被类型的响应差异。结果表明:1)云南省植被生长在极端干旱事件发生后受到的抑制时间大约持续1-2年,受影响区域主要集中在遭遇降水严重减少的地区;2)海拔2000 m附近为植被对干旱响应最为敏感的区域,海拔高于4000 m的植被生长几乎未受到干旱影响;3)较之草地和农田,森林植被受到的抑制作用更为强烈。研究揭示了极端干旱对云南省植被生长造成的影响,为该地区未来应对极端干旱并有效开展植被恢复提供理论依据。  相似文献   

6.
    
The frequency and intensity of extreme weather years, characterized by abnormal precipitation and temperature, are increasing. In isolation, these years have disproportionately large effects on environmental N losses. However, the sequence of extreme weather years (e.g., wet–dry vs. dry–wet) may affect cumulative N losses. We calibrated and validated the DAYCENT ecosystem process model with a comprehensive set of biogeophysical measurements from a corn–soybean rotation managed at three N fertilizer inputs with and without a winter cover crop in Iowa, USA. Our objectives were to determine: (i) how 2‐year sequences of extreme weather affect 2‐year cumulative N losses across the crop rotation, and (ii) if N fertilizer management and the inclusion of a winter cover crop between corn and soybean mitigate the effect of extreme weather on N losses. Using historical weather (1951–2013), we created nine 2‐year scenarios with all possible combinations of the driest (“dry”), wettest (“wet”), and average (“normal”) weather years. We analyzed the effects of these scenarios following several consecutive years of relatively normal weather. Compared with the normal–normal 2‐year weather scenario, 2‐year extreme weather scenarios affected 2‐year cumulative NO3? leaching (range: ?93 to +290%) more than N2O emissions (range: ?49 to +18%). The 2‐year weather scenarios had nonadditive effects on N losses: compared with the normal–normal scenario, the dry–wet sequence decreased 2‐year cumulative N2O emissions while the wet–dry sequence increased 2‐year cumulative N2O emissions. Although dry weather decreased NO3? leaching and N2O emissions in isolation, 2‐year cumulative N losses from the wet–dry scenario were greater than the dry–wet scenario. Cover crops reduced the effects of extreme weather on NO3? leaching but had a lesser effect on N2O emissions. As the frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase, these data suggest that the sequence of interannual weather patterns can be used to develop short‐term mitigation strategies that manipulate N fertilizer and crop rotation to maximize crop N uptake while reducing environmental N losses.  相似文献   

7.
    
极端干旱和食草昆虫可以共同影响植物群落,并且它们的交互作用可能受到干旱模式的影响。然而,目前尚缺乏相关的观测证据。本研究以半干旱草原为研究对象,通过控制实验探讨了不同极端干旱模式与食草昆虫的交互作用对植物群落的影响。实验设置了3种干旱处理,分别为对照(自然降雨量)、慢性干旱(生长季5-8月减少66%降雨量)和急性干旱(6-7月完全无降雨)。在各小区设置了两种食草昆虫处理,分别是有食草昆虫和无食草昆虫。结果表明,食草昆虫和极端干旱及二者的交互作用对物种丰富度无显著影响。食草昆虫缓解了慢性干旱对总盖度的负面影响,而这种缓解作用在急性干旱下较低。食草昆虫对慢性干旱带来的负面效应具有更强的缓解作用,这主要是因为食草昆虫导致慢性干旱下适口性较高的杂类草(具有较低叶片碳含量、叶片干物质含量,以及较低叶片淀粉、钙、镁、锰含量)的大幅降低,进而降低了禾草的负面效应。上述结果表明,干旱和食草昆虫的交互作用受干旱模式的影响。通过调节植物的适口性来控制食草昆虫的采食行为,可以减轻极端干旱对草原生态系统的影响。  相似文献   

8.
    
评估极端干旱对优势植物物种光合速率(Pn)的影响对于我们理解极端干旱影响生态系统功能的机制至关重要。极端干旱可能由降雨量减少或降雨频率减少造成。这两种不同模式的极端干旱可能造成不同的影响。此外,不同草原类型可能对这两种极端干旱模式表现出不同的敏感性。然而,目前尚不清楚这两种极端干旱模式对草原优势植物物种Pn的影响有何差异,以及在不同草原类型这两种不同模式 的极端干旱的效应是否改变。为此,我们于2014年在内蒙古草原两个不同类型的草原(荒漠草原vs.典型草原)站点各进行了一项多年的极端干旱(CHR：将生长季期间每次降雨事件的降雨量减少66% vs. INT：完全排除生长季内一段较短时间的降水)模拟实验。于2017年的7月和8月,我们在这两个草原站点各测量了两种优势物种的Pn。结果发现,CHR和INT均显著降低了优势物种的Pn。无论草原类型如何,INT对Pn造成的负面影响都更大。在荒漠草原,极端干旱对Pn的负面影响普遍大于典型草原,尤其是对于CHR处理下的羊草(Leymus chinensis)。这些结果表明,与降雨量减少相比,降雨频率减少所引起的极端干旱对Pn的负面影响更大。草地类型可能会改变极端干旱模式效应的程度,但不会改变其方向。这些发现强调了应对未来极端干旱的草原生态系统管理应考虑极端干旱模式和草地类型的影响。  相似文献   

9.
    
Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large‐scale forest mortality events will have far‐reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die‐off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long‐lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self‐thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole‐tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large‐scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This refined understanding can facilitate better projections of structural overshoot responses, enabling improved prediction of changes in forest distribution and function from regional to global scales.  相似文献   

10.
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11.
The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important agricultural production area in China. Crop production in the NCP is sensitive to changes in both climate and management practices. While previous studies showed a negative impact of climatic change on crop yield since 1980s, the confounding effects of climatic and agronomic factors have not been separately investigated. This paper used 25 years of crop data from three locations (Nanyang, Zhengzhou and Luancheng) across the NCP, together with daily weather data and crop modeling, to analyse the contribution of changes in climatic and agronomic factors to changes in grain yields of wheat and maize. The results showed that the changes in climate were not uniform across the NCP and during different crop growth stages. Warming mainly occurred during the vegetative (preflowering) growth stage of wheat and maize, while there was a cooling trend or no significant change in temperatures during the postflowering stage of wheat (spring) or maize (autumn). If varietal effects were excluded, warming during vegetative stages would lead to a reduction in the length of the growing period for both crops, generally leading to a negative impact on crop production. However, autonomous adoption of new crop varieties in the NCP was able to compensate the negative impact of climatic change. For both wheat and maize, the varietal changes helped stabilize the length of preflowering period against the shortening effect of warming and, together with the slightly reduced temperature in the postflowering period, extend the length of the grain‐filling period. The combined effect led to increased wheat yield at Zhengzhou and Luancheng; increased maize yield at Nanyang and Luancheng; stabilized wheat yield at Nanyang, and a slight reduction in maize yield at Zhengzhou, compared with the yield change caused entirely by climatic change.  相似文献   

12.
  总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  
Northeast China (NEC) is not only one of the major agricultural production areas in China, but it is also the most susceptible to climate variability. This led us to investigate the impact of climate change on maize potential yield and yield gaps in this region, where maize accounts for about 30% of the nation's production. The APSIM‐Maize model was calibrated and validated for maize phenology and yields. The validated model was then used to estimate potential yields, rain‐fed potential yields, and yield gaps for assessing the climate impacts on maize productivity in NEC. During maize growing seasons from 1981 to 2010, the analysis indicates a warming trend all across NEC, whereas the trends in solar radiation and total precipitation tended to decrease. When the same hybrid was specified in APSIM for all years, a simulated increase of maximum temperature resulted in a negative impact on both potential yield and rain‐fed potential yield. A simulated increase in minimum temperature produced no significant changes in potential or rain‐fed potential yield. However, the increase of minimum temperature was shown to result in a positive impact on the on‐farm yield, consistent with our finding that farmers adopted longer season hybrids for which the increase in minimum temperature provided better conditions for germination, emergence, and grain filling during night time. The gap between potential and rain‐fed potential yields was shown to be larger at locations with lower seasonal precipitation (<500 mm). Our results indicate that regions with the largest yield gaps between rain‐fed potential and on‐farm yields were located in the southeast of NEC. Within NEC, on‐farm maize yields were, on average, only 51% of the potential yields, indicating a large exploitable yield gap, which provides an opportunity to significantly increase production by effective irrigation, fertilization, herbicide, and planting density in NEC.  相似文献   

13.
Soil moisture flux to root surface is considered the main determining factor of the transpiration intensity of plants. This assumption is valid not only in optimal plant physiological conditions without any physical barrier for the evaporation from the leaves, but in climatic drought as well, when high usable soil water amount cannot supply the evapo-transpiration intensity of plant. A new algorithm we built up describing the plant adaptation in climatic drought when stoma’s closure and reduction of plant’s potential evapo-transpiration (PET) starts. The adaptation algorithm of Doorenbos et al. (1978) is developed further defining that soil moisture content initiating the stomata’s closure. The critical soil moisture content is varying according to the PET, and drought tolerance of plant. If soil moisture content is less than the critical one, the plant evapo-transpiration (ET) can be highly different in the drought tolerance plant groups. The new drought tolerance algorithm is applied to maize field plots on chernozem soil of the experimental station of the Debrecen University, in East Hungary. Simulated soil water storages are compared to measured ones of a field plot treatment in five consecutive years. The soil moisture content profiles are measured with a BR-150 capacitance probe (Andrén et al. 1991). Differences between measured and simulated soil water storages are not significant in 2003. Simulations indicate low soil water storages in autumn of 2006, and in the first half of 2007 predicting the low maize production realized in 2007. The new plant adaptation algorithm can be used for a climate and soil moisture content sensitive irrigation control as well. The maize production is an illustrative biohydrological example of water flow through the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum.  相似文献   

14.
近年来北京地区的森林随极端干旱加剧表现出脆弱性特征,为了解气候变化下不同树种的干旱耐受性,选择北京东灵山森林内3个乔木树种(华北落叶松、油松和辽东栎),利用树木年轮生态学方法分析了径向生长与气候的关系,以及对极端干旱事件的抵抗力和弹性。结果表明: 华北落叶松和油松与5—6月气温呈显著负相关,辽东栎与5月气温呈显著负相关;华北落叶松与6月降水量、5—6月和8—9月相对湿度呈显著正相关,油松与6—8月降水量和相对湿度呈显著正相关,辽东栎与2月和5月降水量、5月相对湿度呈显著正相关;所有树种均与当年5—7月标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)呈显著正相关。华北落叶松是干旱耐受性最弱的树种,径向生长在所选极端干旱事件中(1994年、2001—2002年和2007年)下降幅度最大(46.6%～69.6%),抵抗力(0.534、0.304、0.530)和弹性(0.686、0.570、0.753)显著低于辽东栎和油松,辽东栎在2007年抵抗力显著高于油松,弹性无显著差异。生长季持续的高温或降水减少引起的极端干旱是树木径向生长下降的主要原因,树种间各异的生理生态策略是干旱耐受性差异的可能原因。研究结果可为未来造林树种选择和森林管护措施制定提供新依据,以在气候压力持续增加背景下维持森林生态系统功能和服务。  相似文献   

15.
基于1959－2008年中国南方地区249个气象台站的地面观测资料,以作物水分亏缺指数为玉米干旱指标,计算其干旱频率和干旱站次比,分析中国南方地区春玉米和夏玉米各生育阶段发生干旱的时空分布特征.结果表明: 从干旱发生频率的空间分布看,春玉米在淮北、云南北部和华南南部发生的干旱较严重,在其他地区的干旱相对较轻;除了长江中下游地区、华南北部和西南东部的夏玉米在生育后期干旱较严重,研究区域内夏玉米在其生育前期和中期干旱较轻.从干旱面积和强度的变化趋势看,长江中下游地区春玉米在七叶到拔节阶段的干旱强度明显增加,在吐丝后到乳熟阶段的干旱面积和强度呈减小趋势;夏玉米在拔节后期到抽雄阶段以及吐丝后到乳熟阶段的干旱都呈减轻趋势.西南地区春玉米、夏玉米的干旱强度和范围没有明显趋势.从干旱面积和范围的年际和年代际变化看,长江中下游地区夏玉米的变化较大,而西南地区差异较小.  相似文献   

16.
    
The increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes and complex ecosystem responses motivate the need for integrated observational studies at low latency to determine biosphere responses and carbon-climate feedbacks. Here, we develop a satellite-based rapid attribution workflow and demonstrate its use at a 1–2-month latency to attribute drivers of the carbon cycle feedbacks during the 2020–2021 Western US drought and heatwave. In the first half of 2021, concurrent negative photosynthesis anomalies and large positive column CO2 anomalies were detected with satellites. Using a simple atmospheric mass balance approach, we estimate a surface carbon efflux anomaly of 132 TgC in June 2021, a magnitude corroborated independently with a dynamic global vegetation model. Integrated satellite observations of hydrologic processes, representing the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum (SPAC), show that these surface carbon flux anomalies are largely due to substantial reductions in photosynthesis because of a spatially widespread moisture-deficit propagation through the SPAC between 2020 and 2021. A causal model indicates deep soil moisture stores partially drove photosynthesis, maintaining its values in 2020 and driving its declines throughout 2021. The causal model also suggests legacy effects may have amplified photosynthesis deficits in 2021 beyond the direct effects of environmental forcing. The integrated, observation framework presented here provides a valuable first assessment of a biosphere extreme response and an independent testbed for improving drought propagation and mechanisms in models. The rapid identification of extreme carbon anomalies and hotspots can also aid mitigation and adaptation decisions.  相似文献   

17.
    
Climate change‐driven drought stress has triggered numerous large‐scale tree mortality events in recent decades. Advances in mechanistic understanding and prediction are greatly limited by an inability to detect in situ where trees are likely to die in order to take timely measurements and actions. Thus, algorithms of early warning and detection of drought‐induced tree stress and mortality could have major scientific and societal benefits. Here, we leverage two consecutive droughts in the southwestern United States to develop and test a set of early warning metrics. Using Landsat satellite data, we constructed early warning metrics from the first drought event. We then tested these metrics' ability to predict spatial patterns in tree physiological stress and mortality from the second drought. To test the broader applicability of these metrics, we also examined a separate drought in the Amazon rainforest. The early warning metrics successfully explained subsequent tree mortality in the second drought in the southwestern US, as well as mortality in the independent drought in tropical forests. The metrics also strongly correlated with spatial patterns in tree hydraulic stress underlying mortality, which provides a strong link between tree physiological stress and remote sensing during the severe drought and indicates that the loss of hydraulic function during drought likely mediated subsequent mortality. Thus, early warning metrics provide a critical foundation for elucidating the physiological mechanisms underpinning tree mortality in mature forests and guiding management responses to these climate‐induced disturbances.  相似文献   

18.
    
The frequency of extreme precipitation events is predicted to increase in some tropical regions in response to global climate change, but the impacts of this form of disturbance on the structure and dynamics of tropical tree communities across heterogeneous landscapes remain understudied. We determined the effects of an extreme precipitation event (EPE) in July 2006 on mortality of dipterocarps on a 68 ha permanent inventory plot in Sepilok Forest Reserve, Sabah. For stems ≥30 cm dbh, 12 of the 15 species of Dipterocarpaceae on this plot have significant positive and/or negative associations to habitats defined by topography and soil type. Short‐term mortality induced by the EPE was much greater for individuals growing on the alluvial floodplain (13.7%) than in the mudstone (1.4%) or sandstone (0.0%) habitats, but mortality of dipterocarps did not differ among these habitats in the subsequent 5‐yr interval. The likelihood of mortality in response to the EPE was highest for a small group of fast growing dipterocarps that possess low wood density and a strong association to the alluvial forest habitat. This group of species represents a high percentage of dipterocarp individuals but a low proportion of dipterocarp diversity in this habitat. We conclude that disturbance induced by high rainfall events contributes to the episodic nature of tropical forest dynamics, and that increases in the frequency of these events would disproportionately impact low‐lying alluvial forest environments and some of the species growing in them.  相似文献   

19.
    
Climate forecasts agree that increased variability and extremes will tend to reduce the availability of water in many terrestrial ecosystems. Increasingly severe droughts may be exacerbated both by warmer temperatures and by the relative unavailability of water that arrives in more sporadic and intense rainfall events. Using long‐term data and an experimental water manipulation, we examined the resilience of a heterogeneous annual grassland community to a prolonged series of dry winters that led to a decline in plant species richness (2000–2014), followed by a near‐record wet winter (2016–2017), a climatic sequence that broadly resembles the predicted future in its high variability. In our 80, 5‐m2 observational plots, species richness did not recover in response to the wet winter, and the positive relationship of richness to annual winter rainfall thus showed a significant weakening trend over the 18‐year time period. In experiments on 100, 1‐m2 plots, wintertime water supplementation increased and drought shelters decreased the seedling survival and final individual biomass of native annual forbs, the main functional group contributing to the observed long‐term decline in richness. Water supplementation also increased the total cover of native annual forbs, but only increased richness within nested subplots to which seeds were also added. We conclude that prolonged dry winters, by increasing seedling mortality and reducing growth of native forbs, may have diminished the seedbank and thus the recovery potential of diversity in this community. However, the wet winter and the watering treatment did cause recovery of the community mean values of a key functional trait (specific leaf area, an indicator of drought intolerance), suggesting that some aggregate community properties may be stabilized by functional redundancy among species.  相似文献   

20.
  总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
Northeast China (NEC) accounts for about 30% of the nation's maize production in China. In the past three decades, maize yields in NEC have increased under changes in climate, cultivar selection and crop management. It is important to investigate the contribution of these changing factors to the historical yield increases to improve our understanding of how we can ensure increased yields in the future. In this study, we use phenology observations at six sites from 1981 to 2007 to detect trends in sowing dates and length of maize growing period, and then combine these observations with in situ temperature data to determine the trends of thermal time in the maize growing period, as a measure of changes in maize cultivars. The area in the vicinity of these six sites accounts for 30% of NEC's total maize production. The agricultural production systems simulator, APSIM‐Maize model, was used to separate the impacts of changes in climate, sowing dates and thermal time requirements on maize phenology and yields. In NEC, sowing dates trended earlier in four of six sites and maturity dates trended later by 4–21 days. Therefore, the period from sowing to maturity ranged from 2 to 38 days longer in 2007 than it was in 1981. Our results indicate that climate trends alone would have led to a negative impact on maize. However, results from the adaptation assessments indicate that earlier sowing dates increased yields by up to 4%, and adoption of longer season cultivars caused a substantial increase in yield ranging from 13% to 38% over the past 27 years. Therefore, earlier sowing dates and introduction of cultivars with higher thermal time requirements in NEC have overcome the negative effects of climate change and turned what would have otherwise been a loss into a significant increase in maize yield.  相似文献   

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