Soil microbial communities drive the resistance of ecosystem multifunctionality to global change in drylands across the globe

The relationship between soil microbial communities and the resistance of multiple ecosystem functions linked to C, N and P cycling (multifunctionality resistance) to global change has never been assessed globally in natural ecosystems. We collected soils from 59 dryland ecosystems worldwide to investigate the importance of microbial communities as predictor of multifunctionality resistance to climate change and nitrogen fertilisation. Multifunctionality had a lower resistance to wetting–drying cycles than to warming or N deposition. Multifunctionality resistance was regulated by changes in microbial composition (relative abundance of phylotypes) but not by richness, total abundance of fungi and bacteria or the fungal: bacterial ratio. Our results suggest that positive effects of particular microbial taxa on multifunctionality resistance could potentially be controlled by altering soil pH. Together, our work demonstrates strong links between microbial community composition and multifunctionality resistance in dryland soils from six continents, and provides insights into the importance of microbial community composition for buffering effects of global change in drylands worldwide.     

Strong paleoclimatic legacies in current plant functional diversity patterns across Europe

Numerous studies indicate that environmental changes during the late Quaternary have elicited long‐term disequilibria between species diversity and environment. Despite its importance for ecosystem functioning, the importance of historical environmental conditions as determinants of FD (functional diversity) remains largely unstudied. We quantified the geographic distributions of plant FD (richness and dispersion) across Europe using distribution and functional trait information for 2702 plant species. We then compared the importance of historical and contemporary factors to determine the relevance of past conditions as predictors of current plant FD in Europe. For this, we compared the strength of the relationships between FD with temperature and precipitation stability since the LGM (Last Glacial Maximum), accessibility to LGM refugia, and contemporary environmental conditions (climate, productivity, soil, topography, and land use). Functional richness and dispersion exhibited geographic patterns with strong associations to the environmental history of the region. The effect size of accessibility to LGM refugia and climate stability since the LGM was comparable to that of the contemporary predictors. Both functional richness and dispersion increased with temperature stability since the LGM and accessibility to LGM refugia. Functional richness' geographic pattern was primarily associated with accessibility to LGM refugia growing degree‐days, land use heterogeneity, diversity of soil types, and absolute minimum winter temperature. Functional dispersion's geographic pattern was primarily associated with accessibility to LGM refugia growing degree‐days and absolute minimum winter temperature. The high explained variance and model support of historical predictors are consistent with the idea that long‐term variability in environmental conditions supplements contemporary factors in shaping FD patterns at continental scales. Given the importance of FD for ecosystem functioning, future climate change may elicit not just short‐term shifts in ecosystem functioning, but also long‐term functional disequilibria.     

陆地生态系统凋落物分解对全球气候变暖的响应

陆地生态系统凋落物分解是全球碳收支的一个重要组成部分, 主要受气候、凋落物质量和土壤生物群落的综合控制。科学家们普遍认为全球气候变化将对陆地生态系统凋落物分解产生复杂而深远的影响。该文结合凋落物分解试验的常用方法——缩微试验、原位模拟实验和自然环境梯度实验, 归纳现有研究结果, 意在揭示全球气候变化对陆地生态系统凋落物分解的直接影响(温度对凋落物分解速率的影响)和间接影响(温度对凋落物质量、土壤微生物群落及植被型的影响)的普遍规律。各种研究方法都表明: 在水分条件理想的情况下, 温度升高往往能加快凋落物的分解速率; 原位模拟实验中, 凋落物分解速率因物种、增温方法和地理方位而异; 全球气候变化能改变凋落物质量, 但可能不会在短期内影响凋落物的分解速率; 凋落物质量和可分解性的种间差异远大于增温所引发的表型响应差异, 那么, 气候变化所引发的植物群落结构和物种组成的变化将对陆地生态系统凋落物分解产生更强烈的影响; 土壤生物群落如何响应全球气候变化, 进而怎样影响凋落物分解过程, 这些都还存在着极大的不确定性。     

Range and niche shifts in response to past climate change in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos

During climate change, species are often assumed to shift their geographic distributions (geographic ranges) in order to track environmental conditions – niches – to which they are adapted. Recent work, however, suggests that the niches do not always remain conserved during climate change but shift instead, allowing populations to persist in place or expand into new areas. We assessed the extent of range and niche shifts in response to the warming climate after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the desert horned lizard Phrynosoma platyrhinos, a species occupying the western deserts of North America. We used a phylogeographic approach with mitochondrial DNA sequences to approximate the species range during the LGM by identifying populations that exhibit a genetic signal of population stability versus those that exhibit a signal of a recent (likely post‐LGM) geographic expansion. We then compared the climatic niche that the species occupies today with the niche it occupied during the LGM using two models of simulated LGM climate. The genetic analyses indicated that P. platyrhinos persisted within the southern Mojave and Sonoran deserts throughout the latest glacial period and expanded from these deserts northwards, into the western and eastern Great Basin, after the LGM. The climatic niche comparisons revealed that P. platyrhinos expanded its climatic niche after the LGM towards novel, warmer and drier climates that allowed it to persist within the southern deserts. Simultaneously, the species shifted its climatic niche towards greater temperature and precipitation fluctuations after the LGM. We concluded that climatic changes at the end of the LGM promoted both range and niche shifts in this lizard. The mechanism that allowed the species to shift its niche remains unknown, but phenotypic plasticity likely contributes to the species ability to adjust to climate change.     

Evidence of history in explaining diversity patterns in tropical riverine fish

Aim Documentation of the ongoing effect of rain forest refuges at the last glacial maximum (LGM) on patterns of tropical freshwater fish diversity. Location Tropical South and Central America, and West Africa. Methods LGM rain forest regions and species richness by drainage were compiled from published data. GIS mapping was applied to compile drainage area and contemporary primary productivity. We used multiple regression analyses, applied separately for Tropical South America, Central America and West Africa, to assess differences in species richness between drainages that were connected and disconnected to rain forest refuge zones during the LGM. Spatial autocorrelation of the residuals was tested using Moran's I statistic. We added an intercontinental comparison to our analyses to see if a historical signal would persist even when a regional historical effect (climate at the LGM) had already been accounted for. Results Both area and history (contact with LGM rain forest refuge) explained the greatest proportions of variance in the geographical pattern of riverine species richness. In the three examined regions, we found highest richness in drainages that were connected to the rain forest refuges. No significant residual spatial autocorrelation was detected after considering area, primary productivity and LGM rain forest refuges. These results show that past climatic events still affect West African and Latin American regional and continental freshwater fish richness. At the continental scale, we found South American rivers more species‐rich than expected on the basis of their area, productivity and connectedness to rain forest refuge. Conversely, Central American rivers were less species‐diverse than expected by the grouped model. African rivers were intermediate. Therefore, a historical signal persists even when a regional historical effect (climate at the LGM) had already been accounted for. Main conclusions It has been hypothesized that past climatic events have limited impact on species richness because species have tracked environmental changes through range shifts. However, when considering organisms with physically constrained dispersal (such as freshwater fish), past events leave a perceptible imprint on present species diversity. Furthermore, we considered regions that have comparable contemporary climatic and environmental characteristics, explaining the absence of a productivity effect. From the LGM to the present day (a time scale of 18,000 years), extinction processes should have played a predominant role in shaping the current diversity pattern. By contrast, the continental effects could reflect historical contingencies explained by differences in speciation and extinction rates between continents at higher time scales (millions of years).     

Effect of Climate Change on Soil Temperature in Swedish Boreal Forests

Complex non-linear relationships exist between air and soil temperature responses to climate change. Despite its influence on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, soil temperature has received less attention in climate impact studies. Here we present and apply an empirical soil temperature model to four forest sites along a climatic gradient of Sweden. Future air and soil temperature were projected using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual average air and soil temperatures were projected to increase, but complex dynamics were projected on a seasonal scale. Future changes in winter soil temperature were strongly dependent on projected snow cover. At the northernmost site, winter soil temperatures changed very little due to insulating effects of snow cover but southern sites with little or no snow cover showed the largest projected winter soil warming. Projected soil warming was greatest in the spring (up to 4°C) in the north, suggesting earlier snowmelt, extension of growing season length and possible northward shifts in the boreal biome. This showed that the projected effects of climate change on soil temperature in snow dominated regions are complex and general assumptions of future soil temperature responses to climate change based on air temperature alone are inadequate and should be avoided in boreal regions.     

Quaternary and pre‐Quaternary historical legacies in the global distribution of a major tropical plant lineage

Aim The relative importance of current climate and past historical legacies is hotly debated. Here, we assess their role in determining the global distribution and diversity patterns of palms (Arecaceae), a widespread, species‐rich group of keystone ecological importance in tropical ecosystems. Location Global. Methods We assembled country‐level species lists world‐wide and compiled associated data on potential contemporary environmental drivers (current climate, habitat heterogeneity, area, and insularity), Quaternary glacial–interglacial climate change and major biogeographic regions to evaluate to what extent the global distribution and species richness patterns in palms reflect Quaternary climatic oscillations or regional effects reflecting pre‐Quaternary legacies. We also assessed for the first time if historical legacies differ between continents and islands, providing novel insights into determinants of insular species richness. Results Palm species richness was significantly affected by Quaternary climate changes and further differed between biogeographic regions even when both current environmental conditions and Quaternary climate changes were accounted for. In contrast, global limits to the distribution of the palm family were best explained by current temperature while biogeographic regional differences were unimportant and Quaternary climate change caused only a small constraint. Historical legacies were weak on islands, with only a small regional effect and no effect of Quaternary climate changes. Main conclusions Strong historical legacies supplement current environment as determinants of palm species richness. These primarily comprise pre‐Quaternary historical effects, reflected in low African species richness (possibly linked to pre‐Quaternary extinctions) and outstandingly high Neotropical and Indomalayan palm species richness (possibly linked to these regions' long‐term climatic suitability for palms). In contrast to species richness, the global distribution of the family range is largely in equilibrium with current climate. The small historical effects on islands are consistent with climatic buffering from their oceanic environment.     

Contrasting simulated past and future responses of the Amazonian forest to atmospheric change

Modelling simulations of palaeoclimate and past vegetation form and function can contribute to global change research by constraining predictions of potential earth system responses to future warming, and by providing useful insights into the ecophysiological tolerances and threshold responses of plants to varying degrees of atmospheric change. We contrasted HadCM3LC simulations of Amazonian forest at the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 kyr ago) and a Younger Dryas-like period (13-12 kyr ago) with predicted responses of future warming to provide estimates of the climatic limits under which the Amazon forest remains relatively stable. Our simulations indicate that despite lower atmospheric CO2 concentrations and increased aridity during the LGM, Amazonia remains mostly forested, and that the cooling climate of the Younger Dryas-like period in fact causes a trend toward increased above-ground carbon balance relative to today. The vegetation feedbacks responsible for maintaining forest integrity in past climates (i.e. decreased evapotranspiration and reduced plant respiration) cannot be maintained into the future. Although elevated atmospheric CO2 contributes to a positive enhancement of plant carbon and water balance, decreased stomatal conductance and increased plant and soil respiration cause a positive feedback that amplifies localized drying and climate warming. We speculate that the Amazonian forest is currently near its critical resiliency threshold, and that even minor climate warming may be sufficient to promote deleterious feedbacks on forest integrity.     

Potential source and sink locations for climate‐driven species range shifts in Europe since the Last Glacial Maximum

Aim To identify potential source and sink locations for climate‐driven species range shifts in Europe since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Location Europe. Methods We developed a new approach combining past‐climate simulations with the concept of analogous climate space. Our index gives a continuous measure of the potential of a location to have acted as a source or a sink for species that have shifted their ranges since the LGM. High glacial source potential is indicated by LGM climatic conditions that are widespread now; high post‐glacial sink potential is indicated by current climatic conditions that were widespread at the LGM. The degree of isolation of source and sink areas was calculated as the median distance to areas with analogous climate conditions. Results We identified areas of high glacial source potential in the previously recognized refugial areas in the southern European peninsulas, but also in large areas in central‐western Europe. The most climatically isolated source areas were located in northern Spain, in north‐western Europe and in eastern Turkey. From here species would have had to cover substantial distances to find current climate conditions analogous to LGM conditions of these areas. Areas with high post‐glacial sink potential were mainly located in Fennoscandia and in central and south‐eastern Europe. Some of the most isolated sink areas were located in the Spanish highlands and around the Baltic Sea. Main conclusions Our species‐independent approach successfully identified previously recognized glacial refugial areas with high source potential for species range shifts in southern Europe and in addition highlighted other potential source areas in central Europe. This study offers new insights into how the distribution of past and current climatic conditions may have influenced past species range shifts and current large‐scale biodiversity patterns.     

气候变化情景下中国荒漠锦鸡儿潜在适生区的时空变化分析

荒漠锦鸡儿是一种强旱生矮灌木,主要分布在荒漠草原和草原化荒漠中。该研究以植物志和数字标本库中获取的130条记录生成的荒漠锦鸡儿分布记录样点图为基础,运用组合模型(ESDM)模拟荒漠锦鸡儿在末次冰盛期、全新世中期、当前和未来(2030s)气候情景下的潜在地理分布,通过ArcGIS计算适生区面积及质心迁移轨迹,探讨末次冰盛期以来气候变迁对荒漠锦鸡儿分布的影响,为气候变化背景下荒漠锦鸡儿的保护提供理论基础。结果表明:(1)降水因子对荒漠锦鸡儿分布的影响高于温度因子和地形因子。(2)当前荒漠锦鸡儿的中、高适生区面积为10.172×10^(5) km^(2),质心位于阿拉善左旗。(3)末次冰盛期质心向东南迁移至全新世中期质心,继而向东北迁移至当前质心,荒漠锦鸡儿能较好地适应末次冰盛期寒冷干燥的环境。(4)在未来RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP6.0情景下,荒漠锦鸡儿中、高适生区面积均成增加趋势,但RCP8.5情景下的适生区面积却比当前减少了1.981×105 km^(2)。研究推测,轻度的气候变暖有利于荒漠锦鸡儿的生存与分布。     

Simulated climate change affecting microorganisms,nematode density and biodiversity in subarctic soils

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are strongly dominated by temperature, and global warming is expected to have a particularly strong impact in high latitudes. The Arctic will therefore be an important region for early detection of global change. In the present study the effects of environmental manipulations simulating climate change on soil microorganisms and nematode populations were investigated. Study sites were a dwarf shrub dominated tree-line heath (450 m a.s.l.) and a high altitude fellfield (1150 m a.s.l.) at Abisko, Swedish Lapland. Soil temperature was enhanced by using passive greenhouses and the impact on soil organisms with and without NPK fertilizer addition was assessed. The nematode community was strongly affected by warming and nutrient application. Population density was twice as high for all treatments at the fellfield as compared to controls. At the heath temperature enhancement with or without fertilizer application also led to a doubling of the population density, whereas fertilization alone caused an increase of about one third. The environmental manipulations resulted in a greater microbial biomass C and active fungal biomass in the heath soil. Increased density was also recorded for bacterial and fungal feeding nematodes at both sites. The results suggest that nematodes have an important impact on microbial biomass and turnover rates in the two subarctic systems. Elevated soil temperature apparently will lead to increased grazing on microorganisms, contributing to enhanced net N and P mineralization rates and plant nutrient availability. However, biodiversity was generally affected negatively by the environmental manipulations. The effects were more severe at the high altitude fellfield indicating that the influence of elevated temperature will be more pronounced in systems already stressed by extreme climatic conditions. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Assessing biome boundary shifts under climate change scenarios in India

Climate change and its cascading impacts are being increasingly recognized as a major challenge across the globe. Climate is one of the most critical factors affecting biomes and their distribution. The present study assessed shifts in biome types of India using the conceptual framework of Holdridge life zone (HLZ) model, minimum distance classifier and climatic datasets to assess the distribution pattern of potential biomes under climate change scenarios in India. Modelling was conducted on the entire region of India using various combinations; (i) current climate scenario, and, (ii) increased temperature and precipitation scenario. The geographical analysis identifies nineteen (19) HLZs in the Indian sub-continent; seven (7) biomes and nineteen (19) sub-biomes. The overall accuracy and kappa coefficient of the biome map prepared for current climate scenario was 82.73% and 0.75, respectively. With the changes in increasing temperature and precipitation scenario, the modelling results predict significant decrease in the area cover for tropical deserts (plains), tropical desert scrubs (lower montane), tropical moist forests (lower montane) and tropical wet forests (lower montane). Along with these changes, there have been substantial increases in the area cover for tropical dry forests (plains) and tropical very dry forests (plains), especially in central and southern India. The results show shifts from very dry tundra (alvar) to dry tundra (alpine) and moist tundra (alpine) and in some places tropical moist forests (sub-alpine) as well. In central India, decrease in tropical moist forests (lower montane) has been observed, while an increase in the area cover of tropical rain forests (plains) in northeastern India has been observed. It is important to understand the impacts and vulnerabilities of projected climate change on forest ecosystems so that better management and conservation strategies can be adopted for biodiversity and forest dependent communities. The knowledge of impact mechanisms will identify adaptation strategies for some conditions which will help in decreasing the susceptibility to anticipated climate change in the forest sector.     

Soil parent material—A major driver of plant nutrient limitations in terrestrial ecosystems

Because the capability of terrestrial ecosystems to fix carbon is constrained by nutrient availability, understanding how nutrients limit plant growth is a key contemporary question. However, what drives nutrient limitations at global scale remains to be clarified. Using global data on plant growth, plant nutritive status, and soil fertility, we investigated to which extent soil parent materials explain nutrient limitations. We found that N limitation was not linked to soil parent materials, but was best explained by climate: ecosystems under harsh (i.e., cold and or dry) climates were more N‐limited than ecosystems under more favourable climates. Contrary to N limitation, P limitation was not driven by climate, but by soil parent materials. The influence of soil parent materials was the result of the tight link between actual P pools of soils and physical–chemical properties (acidity, P richness) of soil parent materials. Some other ground‐related factors (i.e., soil weathering stage, landform) had a noticeable influence on P limitation, but their role appeared to be relatively smaller than that of geology. The relative importance of N limitation versus P limitation was explained by a combination of climate and soil parent material: at global scale, N limitation became prominent with increasing climatic constraints, but this global trend was modulated at lower scales by the effect of parent materials on P limitation, particularly under climates favourable to biological activity. As compared with soil parent materials, atmospheric deposition had only a weak influence on the global distribution of actual nutrient limitation. Our work advances our understanding of the distribution of nutrient limitation at global scale. In particular, it stresses the need to take soil parent materials into account when investigating plant growth response to environment changes.     

Photosynthesis and growth reduction with warming are driven by nonstomatal limitations in a Mediterranean semi‐arid shrub

Whereas warming enhances plant nutrient status and photosynthesis in most terrestrial ecosystems, dryland vegetation is vulnerable to the likely increases in evapotranspiration and reductions in soil moisture caused by elevated temperatures. Any warming‐induced declines in plant primary production and cover in drylands would increase erosion, land degradation, and desertification. We conducted a four‐year manipulative experiment in a semi‐arid Mediterranean ecosystem to evaluate the impacts of a ~2°C warming on the photosynthesis, transpiration, leaf nutrient status, chlorophyll content, isotopic composition, biomass growth, and postsummer survival of the native shrub Helianthemum squamatum. We predicted that warmed plants would show reduced photosynthetic activity and growth, primarily due to the greater stomatal limitation imposed by faster and more severe soil drying under warming. On average, warming reduced net photosynthetic rates by 36% across the study period. Despite this strong response, warming did not affect stomatal conductance and transpiration. The reduction of peak photosynthetic rates with warming was more pronounced in a drought year than in years with near‐average rainfall (75% and 25–40% reductions relative to controls, respectively), with no indications of photosynthetic acclimation to warming through time. Warmed plants had lower leaf N and P contents, δ¹³C, and sparser and smaller leaves than control plants. Warming reduced shoot dry mass production by 31%. However, warmed plants were able to cope with large reductions in net photosynthesis, leaf area, and shoot biomass production without changes in postsummer survival rates. Our findings highlight the key role of nonstomatal factors (biochemical and/or nutritional) in reducing net carbon assimilation rates and growth under warming, which has important implications for projections of plant carbon balance under the warmer and drier climatic scenario predicted for drylands worldwide. Projected climate warming over the coming decades could reduce net primary production by about one‐third in semi‐arid gypsum shrublands dominated by H. squamatum.     

Multi‐species distribution modelling highlights the Adelaide Geosyncline,South Australia,as an important continental‐scale arid‐zone refugium

The mainland portion of the Adelaide Geosyncline (Mount Lofty and Flinders Ranges) has been postulated as an important arid‐zone climate refugium for Australia. To test the sensitivity of this putative Australian arid biome refugium to contemporary climate change, we compared Generalized Additive Modelling and MaxEnt distribution models for 20 vascular plant species. We aimed to identify shared patterns to inform priority areas for management. Models based on current climate were projected onto a hypothetical 2050 climate with a 1.5°C increase in temperature and 8% decrease in rainfall. Individual comparisons and combined outputs of logistic models for all 20 species showed range contraction to shared refugia in the Flinders Ranges and southern Mount Lofty Ranges. Modelling suggests the Flinders Ranges will experience species turnover while suitable climatic habitat will be retained in the Mount Lofty Ranges for the current suite of species. Fragmentation of the southern Mount Lofty Ranges poses management challenges for conserving species diversity with warming and drying. Although projected models must be interpreted carefully, they suggest the region will remain an important but threatened refugium for mesic species at a continental scale.     

西北干旱区10种荒漠植物地理分布与大气候的关系及其可能潜在分布区的估测

 选择面积广阔、地理位置特殊、气候干旱、地形地貌多样、生态系统脆弱以及人类活动长期干扰,而且目前面临着西部大开发和环境保护双重矛盾的西北干旱区作为研究区域,通过收集西北干旱区多种优势种和常见种的地理分布资料,选取10 种分布范围相对明确、资料相对齐备的荒漠植物种：短叶假木贼（Anabasis brevifolia）、木蓼（Atraphaxis frutescens）、沙拐枣（Calligonum mongolicum）、膜果麻黄（Ephedra przewalskii）、裸果木（Gymnocarpos przewalskii）、梭梭柴（Haloxylon ammodendron）、白梭梭（Haloxylon persicum）、尖叶盐爪爪（Kalidium cuspidatum）、松叶猪毛菜（Salsola laricifolia）和合头草（Sympegma regelii）,定量分析其地理分布与气候因子的关系,并据此估测其潜在中心分布区和潜在最大分布范围,与实际分布范围进行比较。结果表明,10种荒漠植物的Holdridge生物温度、降水量和可能蒸散率的平均值、标准差、最大值和最小值比较准确地反映了我国荒漠地区的典型气候特征,说明植物种分布与气候的定量对应关系较好。其可能潜在分布的估测中,中心分布估测图与植物种的实际分布范围有较好的对应性,而在最大可能分布的估测图中,与实际有一定误差及存在一些不合理的地方,但种与种之间有差异。究其原因,首先在于目前所拥有的植物种分布和气象资料的限制,而且植物种的实际分布范围受到人为活动的影响较大,所以无法完全把握植物种与气候的准确定量关系;其次,气候极值所预测的只是植物种分布的最大可能性,而不能表现出植物种现实分布的主要地区,气候均值与标准差所反映的中心分布区,其准确性更可靠;再者,模拟预测仅考虑了植物种与大气候的关系,而没有考虑决定植物分布的其它环境因素,如土壤、基质、地形等地理因素。     

Hydrological response of biological soil crusts to global warming: A ten‐year simulative study

Biological soil crusts across the desert regions play a key role in regional ecological security and ecological health. They are vital biotic components of desert ecosystems that maintain soil stability, fix carbon and nitrogen, influence the establishment of vascular plants, and serve as habitats for a large number of arthropods and microorganisms, as well as influencing soil hydrological processes. Changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to influence the functioning of desert ecosystems by altering biotic components such as the species composition of biological soil crusts. However, it remains unclear how these important components will respond to the prolonged warming and reduced precipitation that is predicted to occur with climate change. To evaluate how the hydrological properties of these biological soil crusts respond to these alterations, we used open‐top chambers over a 10‐year period to simulate warming and reduced precipitation. Infiltration, dew entrapment, and evaporation were measured as surrogates of the hydrological functioning of biological soil crusts. It was found that the ongoing warming coupled with reduced precipitation will more strongly affect moss in crustal communities than lichens and cyanobacteria, which will lead to a direct alteration of the hydrological performance of biological soil crusts. Reductions in moss abundance, surface cover, and biomass resulted in a change in structure and function of crustal communities, decreased dew entrapment, and increased infiltration and evaporation of biological soil crusts in desert ecosystems, which further impacted on the desert soil water balance.     

Time lag and negative responses of forest greenness and tree growth to warming over circumboreal forests

The terrestrial forest ecosystems in the northern high latitude region have been experiencing significant warming rates over several decades. These forests are considered crucial to the climate system and global carbon cycle and are particularly vulnerable to climate change. To obtain an improved estimate of the response of vegetation activity, e.g., forest greenness and tree growth, to climate change, we investigated spatiotemporal variations in two independent data sets containing the dendroecological information for this region over the past 30 years. These indices are the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g) and the tree‐ring width index (RWI), both of which showed significant spatial variability in past trends and responses to climate changes. These trends and responses to climate change differed significantly in the ecosystems of the circumarctic (latitude higher than 67°N) and the circumboreal forests (latitude higher and lower than 50°N and 67°N, respectively), but the way in which they differed was relatively similar in the NDVI3g and the RWI. In the circumarctic ecosystem, the climate variables of the current summer were the main climatic drivers for the positive response to the increase in temperatures showed by both the NDVI3g and the RWI indices. On the other hand, in the circumboreal forest ecosystem, the climate variables of the previous year (from summer to winter) were also important climatic drivers for both the NDVI3g and the RWI. Importantly, both indices showed that the temperatures in the previous year negatively affected the ecosystem. Although such negative responses to warming did not necessarily lead to a past negative linear trend in the NDVI3g and the RWI over the past 30 years, future climate warming could potentially cause severe reduction in forest greenness and tree growth in the circumboreal forest ecosystem.     

Response of Terrestrial CH4 Uptake to Interactive Changes in Precipitation and Temperature Along a Climatic Gradient

We determined the response of terrestrial methane (CH₄) uptake to 4 years of full-factorial manipulations of precipitation and temperature in four ecosystems along a 50 km warm and dry to cold and wet climatic gradient (desert grassland, pinyon-juniper woodland, ponderosa pine forest, and mixed conifer forest). Our goals were to determine whether ecosystem-specific, intraannual, and interactive responses to altered precipitation and warming are quantitatively important. Passive collectors and interceptors increased (+50% per event) and reduced (−30% per event) the quantity of precipitation delivered to experimental plant–soil mesocosms, and downward transfer along the elevation gradient warmed mesocosms by 1.8°C on average. Methane uptake in the colder and wetter ecosystems along the gradient decreased with increasing precipitation, especially during the wet season. The warmer and drier ecosystems, however, responded more strongly to warming, exhibiting less CH₄ uptake with increasing temperature. We found no interaction between altered precipitation and warming in any ecosystem. Soil CH₄ consumption in the laboratory was a strong predictor of ecosystem differences in field CH₄ consumption, but was a poor predictor of the effects of climatic change observed in the field. Based on our results, future climate scenarios that are wet and warm will cause the largest reduction in terrestrial CH₄ uptake across ecosystem types.     

基于最大熵模型的狸尾豆属植物在中国的潜在分布区模拟

基于19个气候因子和203条狸尾豆属（Uraria）植物地理分布记录，采用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）对植物当前分布点的气候变量进行分析，推断其在末次盛冰期（LGM）、当前和未来气候（2070s）情景下的潜在分布；采用受试者工作曲线和刀切法对模型的准确性进行检验并探明影响该属在中国分布的气候因子。结果显示：最大熵模型模拟结果极准确，测试集和训练集假阳性值（AUC）分别达到0.934和0.936；影响该属植物分布的主要气候因子是最暖季节降水和最冷月份最低温度；广西、广东及台湾地区为该属在中国的起源中心。在全球气候变暖背景下，狸尾豆属植物的适生环境将向中国北部及东部沿海地区推移，且面积逐渐增加。