Evolutionary constraints mediate extinction risk under climate change

Mounting evidence suggests that rapid evolutionary adaptation may rescue some organisms from the impacts of climate change. However, evolutionary constraints might hinder this process, especially when different aspects of environmental change generate antagonistic selection on genetically correlated traits. Here, we use individual-based simulations to explore how genetic correlations underlying the thermal physiology of ectotherms might influence their responses to the two major components of climate change—increases in mean temperature and thermal variability. We found that genetic correlations can influence population dynamics under climate change, with declines in population size varying three-fold depending on the type of correlation present. Surprisingly, populations whose thermal performance curves were constrained by genetic correlations often declined less rapidly than unconstrained populations. Our results suggest that accurate forecasts of the impact of climate change on ectotherms will require an understanding of the genetic architecture of the traits under selection.     

Climate change and historical biogeography of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides

Aim Marine sessile inter‐tidal invertebrates are expected to undergo shifts in distribution due to climate change. Using a combination of survey and transplant data with thermal modelling, we investigated the role of climate on the poleward contraction of the southern range edge of the north temperate barnacle Semibalanus balanoides. Location Western Atlantic of the United States. Methods Barnacle surveys were conducted along the east coast of the United States in 1963 and 2007. Presence, absence and abundance data were collected and the time periods were compared. Transplant experiments monitoring survival with relation to temperature were conducted upon S. balanoides along the more southerly portion of their range, and modelling predicting barnacle survival with relation to biogeography was completed. Results The southern limit of S. balanoides has contracted approximately 350 km to the north. Main conclusions The changes thus far observed in climate along the east coast of the United States have contributed to the southern limit range contraction of S. balanoides. Further changes in the biogeography of S. balanoides are expected with continued climate warming.     

Phylogeographic and demographic effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations in a montane salamander, Plethodon fourchensis

Climatic changes associated with Pleistocene glacial cycles profoundly affected species distributions, patterns of interpopulation gene flow, and demography. In species restricted to montane habitats, ranges may expand and contract along an elevational gradients in response to environmental fluctuations and create high levels of genetic variation among populations on different mountains. The salamander Plethodon fourchensis is restricted to high-elevation, mesic forest on five montane isolates in the Ouachita Mountains. We used DNA sequence data along with ecological niche modelling and coalescent simulations to test several hypotheses related to the effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations on species in montane habitats. Our results revealed that P. fourchensis is composed of four well-supported, geographically structured lineages. Geographic breaks between lineages occurred in the vicinity of major valleys and a narrow high-elevation pass. Ecological niche modelling predicted that environmental conditions in valleys separating most mountains are suitable; however, interglacial periods like the present are predicted to be times of range expansion in P. fourchensis . Divergence dating and coalescent simulations indicated that lineage diversification occurred during the Middle Pleistocene via the fragmentation of a wide-ranging ancestor. Bayesian skyline plots showed gradual decreases in population size in three of four lineages over the most recent glacial period and a slight to moderate amount of population growth during the Holocene. Our results not only demonstrate that climatic changes during the Pleistocene had profound effects on species restricted to montane habitats, but comparison of our results for P. fourchensis with its parapatric, sister taxon, P. ouachitae , also emphasizes how responses can vary substantially even among closely related, similarly distributed taxa.     

Climate change alters plant biogeography in Mediterranean prairies along the West Coast,USA

Projected changes in climate are expected to have widespread effects on plant community composition and diversity in coming decades. However, multisite, multifactor climate manipulation studies that have examined whether observed responses are regionally consistent and whether multiple climate perturbations are interdependent are rare. Using such an experiment, we quantified how warming and increased precipitation intensity affect the relative dominance of plant functional groups and diversity across a broad climate gradient of Mediterranean prairies. We implemented a fully factorial climate manipulation of warming (+2.5–3.0 °C) and increased wet‐season precipitation (+20%) at three sites across a 520‐km latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA. After seeding with a nearly identical mix of native species at all sites, we measured plant community composition (i.e., cover, richness, and diversity), temperature, and soil moisture for 3 years. Warming and the resultant drying of soils altered plant community composition, decreased native diversity, and increased total cover, with warmed northern communities becoming more similar to communities further south. In particular, after two full years of warming, annual cover increased and forb cover decreased at all sites mirroring the natural biogeographic pattern. This suggests that the extant climate gradient of increasing heat and drought severity is responsible for a large part of the observed biogeographic pattern of increasing annual invasion in US West Coast prairies as one moves further south. Additional precipitation during the rainy season did little to relieve drought stress and had minimal effects on plant community composition. Our results suggest that the projected increase in drought severity (i.e., hotter, drier summers) in Pacific Northwest prairies may lead to increased invasion by annuals and a loss of forbs, similar to what has been observed in central and southern California, resulting in novel species assemblages and shifts in functional composition, which in turn may alter ecosystem functions.     

Island biogeography and the reproductive ecology of great tits Parus major

Island biogeography theory has contributed greatly to both theoretical and applied studies of conservation biology (e.g., design of nature reserves, minimum viable population sizes, extinction risk) and community composition. However, little theoretical and empirical work has addressed how island isolation and size affect reproductive ecology. We investigated the reproductive ecology of great tits (Parus major) on one offshore and one nearshore island, as well as on the Danish mainland. Tits breeding on the offshore island bred later, laid smaller clutches, and laid larger eggs than those on the nearshore island and mainland. In addition, the level of ectoparasite infestation in nests was highest on the offshore island, intermediate on the nearshore island, and lowest on the mainland. These insular effects may occur due to lower food abundance on islands, to density-dependent effects, or to effects related to low genetic diversity within island populations. Whatever the cause, the results emphasize that future studies of forest fragmentation/population isolation should consider not only gross measures of reproductive success, but also fine-scale measures such as clutch size, timing of breeding, and parasite prevalence. Received: 10 November 1997 / Accepted: 9 March 1998     

Accelerating local extinction associated with very recent climate change

Climate change has already caused local extinction in many plants and animals, based on surveys spanning many decades. As climate change accelerates, the pace of these extinctions may also accelerate, potentially leading to large-scale, species-level extinctions. We tested this hypothesis in a montane lizard. We resurveyed 18 mountain ranges in 2021–2022 after only ~7 years. We found rates of local extinction among the fastest ever recorded, which have tripled in the past ~7 years relative to the preceding ~42 years. Further, climate change generated local extinction in ~7 years similar to that seen in other organisms over ~70 years. Yet, contrary to expectations, populations at two of the hottest sites survived. We found that genomic data helped predict which populations survived and which went extinct. Overall, we show the increasing risk to biodiversity posed by accelerating climate change and the opportunity to study its effects over surprisingly brief timescales.     

Deep intra‐island divergence of a montane forest endemic: phylogeography of the Puerto Rican frog Eleutherodactylus portoricensis (Anura: Eleutherodactylidae)

Aim Hypotheses proposed for lineage diversification of tropical montane species have rarely been tested within oceanic islands. Our goal was to understand how basin barriers and Pleistocene climatic fluctuations shaped the distribution of diversity in Eleutherodactylus portoricensis (Eleutherodactylidae), a frog endemic to the montane rain forests of Puerto Rico. Location The north‐eastern (Luquillo) and south‐eastern (Cayey) mountains of Puerto Rico. Methods We generated mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequences (c. 565 bp) from 144 individuals of E. portoricensis representing 16 localities, and sequenced 646 bp of cytochrome b and 596 bp of nuclear DNA (nDNA) rhodopsin exon and intron 1 from a subset of individuals. We conducted a phylogenetic analysis on the mtDNA sequence data and explored population substructure with maximum parsimony networks, a spatial analysis of molecular variance, and pairwise F_ST analysis. Coalescent simulations were performed to test alternative models of population divergence in response to late Pleistocene interglacial periods. Historical demography was assessed through coalescent analyses and Bayesian skyline plots. Results We found: (1) two highly divergent groups associated with the disjunct Luquillo and Cayey Mountains, respectively; (2) a shallow mtDNA genetic discontinuity across the La Plata Basin within the Cayey Mountains; (3) phylogeographic congruence between nDNA and mtDNA markers; (4) divergence dates for both mtDNA and nDNA pre‐dating the Holocene interglacial (c. 10 ka), and nDNA suggesting divergence in the penultimate interglacial (c. 245 ka); and (5) historical demographic stability in both lineages. Main conclusions The low‐elevation Caguas Basin is a long‐term barrier to gene flow between the two montane frog populations. Measures of genetic diversity for mtDNA were similar in both lineages, but lower nDNA diversity in the Luquillo Mountains lineage suggests infrequent dispersal between the two mountain ranges and colonization by a low‐diversity founder population. Population divergence began prior to the Holocene interglacial. Stable population sizes over time indicate a lack of demonstrable demographic response to climatic changes during the last glacial period. This study highlights the importance of topographic complexity in promoting within‐island vicariant speciation in the Greater Antilles, and indicates long‐term persistence and lineage diversification despite late Pleistocene climatic oscillations.     

Climate effects on offspring sex ratio in a viviparous lizard

1. Understanding individual and population responses to climate change is emerging as an important challenge. Because many phenotypic traits are sensitive to environmental conditions, directional climate change could significantly alter trait distribution within populations and may generate an evolutionary response. 2. In species with environment-dependent sex determination, climate change may lead to skewed sex ratios at hatching or birth. However, there are virtually no empirical data on the putative link between climatic parameters and sex ratios from natural populations. 3. We monitored a natural population of viviparous lizards with temperature-dependent sex determination (Niveoscincus ocellatus) over seven field seasons. Sex ratios at birth fluctuated significantly among years and closely tracked thermal conditions in the field, with the proportion of male offspring increasing in colder years. 4. This is the first study to demonstrate the effect of local climatic conditions (e.g. temperature) on offspring sex ratio fluctuations in a free-living population of a viviparous ectotherm. A succession of warmer-than-usual years (as predicted under many climate-change scenarios) likely would generate female-biased sex ratios at birth, while an increase in interannual variation (as also predicted under climate change scenarios) could lead to significant fluctuations in cohort sex ratios. If cohort sex ratio bias at birth leads to adult sex ratio bias, long-term directional changes in thermal conditions may have important effects on population dynamics in this species.     

Phylogeography and species biogeography of montane Great Basin stoneflies

Sky islands are ideal systems for determining the effects of climatic oscillations on species distributions and genetic structure. Our study focused on montane stonefly populations in the Great Basin of western North America. We used niche-based distribution modelling, phylogeography and traditional species-based biogeography to test several hypotheses as follows: (i) genetic differentiation among Doroneuria baumanni populations will be independent of hydrologic connectivity (headwater model); (ii) Sky islands were colonized when habitat was more continuous and populations likely experienced multiple expansions and contractions; (iii) Colonization events were coincident with the late Pleistocene and Holocene; and (iv) Shared topography and climate history will result in concordant patterns of genetic differentiation in D. baumanni and occurrences of 32 stonefly species across the region. Overall, Φ(ST) 's and coalescent-based estimates of migration were consistent with the headwater model. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian gene trees identified three major nonoverlapping east-west clades. Distribution modelling indicated more suitable habitat in the Great Basin during the Last Glacial Maximum than at present, but none during the last interglacial period. Demographic analyses showed evidence of population expansion in one of the three major east-west clades. Intra-clade divergence times (60,000-183,000ybp) were well within the late Pleistocene while among-clade divergence times (499.000-719,000ybp) were deeper. Genetic differentiation in D. baumanni and distributions of stonefly species were significantly concordant. These results imply that climatic oscillations have played major roles in shaping the genetic structure and distributions of Great Basin stoneflies, but that divergence among clades occurred much earlier than our late Pleistocence/early Holocene predictions.     

海南岛生态环境质量时空变化及其对气候变化与人类活动的响应

海南岛是气候变化敏感区以及生态环境脆弱区。近几十年气候变化和人类活动深刻地影响着海南岛的生态环境质量。然而,针对海南生态环境质量时空演变及其对气候变化与人类活动响应的规律还不清晰,理解这些规律对实现海南岛可持续发展目标具有重要意义。基于多源遥感数据,利用改进的遥感生态环境指数(MRSEI)探究了海南岛1992—2015年生态环境质量时空变化特征以及其对气候变化以及人类活动的响应,并利用像元尺度的多元回归法对比了气候变化与人类活动对生态环境质量变化的贡献。结果表明：(1)MRSEI指数适用于大区域,可用于本研究中的海南岛生态环境质量评价;(2)近24年,海南岛生态环境质量呈现波动上升的趋势,且在所有土地利用类型中,林地的MRSEI最高,多年平均值达到0.812;(3)MRSEI与气温、降雨呈现出显著正相关关系,与以夜间灯光表征的人类活动在沿海以及各市县的主城区呈现显著负相关关系;(4)气候变化在MRSEI演变中的贡献整体要高于人类活动影响。为海南中国特色自由贸易港建设中生态环境与经济社会协同发展研判提供科学的定量支撑,并为制定相应的政策提供依据。     

The concept of the taxon cycle in biogeography

Taxon cycles are sequential phases of expansion and contraction of the ranges of species, associated generally with shifts in ecological distribution. The important contribution of the taxon cycle to biogeographical analysis is its emphasis on evolutionary and ecological interactions among colonizing and resident species, which influence their extinction dynamics and establish patterns of geographical distribution. Taxon cycles were inferred originally from the distribution of species across island archipelagos, where a correlation was noted between gaps in island occupancy and the degree of phenotypic differentiation. This pattern implied that phases of colonization were followed by range contraction, while endemic Antillean species that were undifferentiated between islands suggested secondary expansion and the beginning of a new cycle. This interpretation was met with scepticism, but reconstruction of phylogenetic relationships from gene sequences has now permitted us to characterize taxon cycles in Lesser Antillean birds. The relative timing of phases of the cycle can be deduced from genetic divergence between island populations. We have found that taxon cycles have periods in the order of 10⁶ years and that cycles in different lineages occur independently of each other and independently of Pleistocene climate cycles. Individual island populations may persist for several millions of years on the larger islands of the Lesser Antilles; occasional expansion phases lead to the replacement of island populations that have disappeared, thus reducing the archipelago‐wide rate of extinction to nil. What drives taxon cycles is unknown, but we speculate that they may be caused by co‐evolution with enemy populations, and a probable mechanism would involve infrequent mutations influencing parasite virulence and avian host disease resistance. Taxon cycles undoubtedly occur on continents, but the geographical configuration of island archipelagos reveals more clearly their presence and invites their study.     

Phylogeny and historical biogeography of African ground squirrels: the role of climate change in the evolution of Xerus

We used phylogenetic and phylogeographical methods to infer relationships among African ground squirrels of the genus Xerus. Using Bayesian, maximum-parsimony, nested clade and coalescent analyses of cytochrome b sequences, we inferred interspecific relationships, evaluated the specific distinctness of Cape (Xerus inauris) and mountain (Xerus princeps) ground squirrels, and tested hypotheses for historical patterns of gene flow within X. inauris. The inferred phylogeny supports the hypothesized existence of an 'arid corridor' from the Horn of Africa to the Cape region. Although doubts have been raised regarding the specific distinctness of X. inauris and X. princeps, our analyses show that each represents a distinct well-supported, monophyletic lineage. Xerus inauris includes three major clades, two of which are geographically restricted. The distributions of X. inauris populations are concordant with divergences within and disjunctions between other taxa, which have been interpreted as results of Plio-Pleistocene climate cycles. Nested clade analysis, coalescent analyses, and analyses of genetic structure support allopatric fragmentation as the cause of the deep divergences within this species.     

Lineage diversification and historical demography of a sky island salamander,Plethodon ouachitae,from the Interior Highlands

Sky islands provide ideal opportunities for understanding how climatic changes associated with Pleistocene glacial cycles influenced species distributions, genetic diversification, and demography. The salamander Plethodon ouachitae is largely restricted to high‐elevation, mesic forest on six major mountains in the Ouachita Mountains. Because these mountains are separated by more xeric, low‐elevation valleys, the salamanders appear to be isolated on sky islands where gene flow among populations on different mountains may be restricted. We used DNA sequence data along with ecological niche modelling and coalescent simulations to test several hypotheses related to diversifications in sky island habitats. Our results revealed that P. ouachitae is composed of seven well‐supported lineages structured across six major mountains. The species originated during the Late Pliocene, and lineage diversification occurred during the Middle Pleistocene in a stepping stone fashion with a cyclical pattern of dispersal to a new mountain followed by isolation and divergence. Diversification occurred primarily on an east–west axis, which is likely related to the east–west orientation of the Ouachita Mountains and the more favourable cooler and wetter environmental conditions on north slopes compared to south‐facing slopes and valleys. All non‐genealogical coalescent methods failed to detect significant population expansion in any lineages. Bayesian skyline plots showed relatively stable population sizes over time, but indicated a slight to moderate amount of population growth in all lineages starting approximately 10 000–12 000 years ago. Our results provide new insight into sky island diversifications from a previously unstudied region, and further demonstrate that climatic changes during the Pleistocene had profound effects on lineage diversification and demography, especially in species from environmentally sensitive habitats in montane regions.     

The lizard fauna of Guam's fringing islets: island biogeography, phylogenetic history, and conservation implications

We sampled the lizard fauna of twenty-two small islets fringing the Pacific island of Guam and used these data to shed light on the processes responsible for present-day diversity. Habitat diversity, measured by islet area and vegetation complexity, was significantly correlated with the number of species found on an islet. However, islet distance and elevation were not significant predictors of diversity. Distribution patterns were slightly different for the two major families in our sample, Scincidae and Gekkonidae: skinks needed larger islets to maintain a population than did geckos. Presence/absence patterns were highly and significantly nested, and population density was correlated with the number of islets on which a species was found. An area cladogram was poorly supported and showed no faunal similarity between nearby islands. These patterns indicate that extinctions on most islets were due mostly to non-catastrophic, long-acting biological causes. The presence on the islets of species extirpated on Guam and the lack of significant nestedness on islands with greater maximum elevation highlight the impact that predators (primarily brown treesnakes) can have. Our findings also show that small reserves will not suffice to protect endangered lizard faunas, and that the islets may serve as a short-term repository of such species until snake-free areas can be established on Guam