Microhabitat analyses support relationships between niche breadth and range size when spatial autocorrelation is strong

Multiple evidence of positive relationships between nice breadth and range size (NB–RS) suggested that this can be a general ecological pattern. However, correlations between niche breadth and range size can emerge as a by-product of strong spatial structure of environmental variables. This can be problematic because niche breadth is often assessed using broad-scale macroclimatic variables, which suffer heavy spatial autocorrelation. Microhabitat measurements provide accurate information on species tolerance, and show limited autocorrelation. The aim of this study was to combine macroclimate and microhabitat data to assess NB–RS relationships in European plethodontid salamanders (Hydromantes), and to test whether microhabitat variables with weak autocorrelation can provide less biased NB–RS estimates across species. To measure macroclimatic niche, we gathered comprehensive information on the distribution of all Hydromantes species, and combined them with broad-scale climatic layers. To measure microhabitat, we recorded salamander occurrence across > 350 caves and measured microhabitat features influencing their distribution: humidity, temperature and light. We assessed NB–RS relationships through phylogenetic regression; spatial null-models were used to test whether the observed relationships are a by-product of autocorrelation. We observed positive relationships between niche breadth and range size at both the macro- and microhabitat scale. At the macroclimatic scale, strong autocorrelation heavily inflated the possibility to observe positive NB–RS. Spatial autocorrelation was weaker for microhabitat variables. At the microhabitat level, the observed NB–RS was not a by-product of spatial structure of variables. Our study shows that heavy autocorrelation of variables artificially increases the possibility to detect positive relationships between bioclimatic niche and range size, while fine-scale data of microhabitat provide more direct measure of conditions selected by ectotherms, and enable less biased measures of niche breadth. Combining analyses performed at multiple scales and datasets with different spatial structure provides more complete niche information and effectively tests the generality of niche breadth–range size relationships.     

What is the potential of spread in invasive bryophytes?

Although the number of invasive bryophytes is much lower than that of higher plants, they threaten habitats that are often species rich and of high conservation relevance. Their potential of spread has, however, never been determined. Here, we assess whether the three most invasive bryophyte species shifted their niche during the invasion process and whether the extent of the study area defined to calibrate the model (geographic background, GB) affects model transferability. We then determine whether ecological niche models (ENMs) developed in their native range can be projected in other areas to assess their invasive potential. The macroclimatic niches of Campylopus introflexus, Orthodontium lineare and Lophocolea semiteres were compared in their native range (Southern Hemisphere) and in their invasion range (Northern Hemisphere) using ordination techniques. ENMs from an ensemble model were calibrated in the native range and projected onto the Northern Hemisphere using different GBs. No evidence for niche expansion in the invaded range was found and the species occur in the invaded range under climate conditions that are similar to those in the native range. The performance of the models to predict occurrences in the invaded range increased with the extent of the GB. The potential range of all species included entire regions on continents where they are still absent. The expansion of the investigated species appears to be constrained by climate conditions that are similar to those currently prevailing in their native range, which is consistent with our failure to demonstrate macroclimatic niche shift in the invaded range. The use of large GBs is recommended in such vagile organisms with large, disjunct distributions. The models indicated that invasive bryophyte species might become a threat in central and eastern Europe, North America and eastern Asia if accidentally introduced or naturally dispersed.     

Scaling between macro- to microscale climatic data reveals strong phylogenetic inertia in niche evolution in plethodontid salamanders

Macroclimatic niches are indirect and potentially inadequate predictors of the realized environmental conditions that many species experience. Consequently, analyses of niche evolution based on macroclimatic data alone may incompletely represent the evolutionary dynamics of species niches. Yet, understanding how an organisms’ climatic (Grinnellian) niche responds to changing macroclimatic conditions is of vital importance for predicting their potential response to global change. In this study, we integrate microclimatic and macroclimatic data across 26 species of plethodontid salamanders to portray the relationship between microclimatic niche evolution in response to changing macroclimate. We demonstrate stronger phylogenetic signal in microclimatic niche variables than at the macroclimatic scale. Even so, we find that the microclimatic niche tracks climatic changes at the macroscale, but with a phylogenetic lag at million-year timescales. We hypothesize that behavioral tracking of the microclimatic niche over space and phenology generates the lag: salamanders preferentially select microclimates similar to their ancestral conditions rather than adapting with changes in physiology. We demonstrate that macroclimatic variables are weak predictors of niche evolution and that incorporating spatial scale into analyses of niche evolution is critical for predicting responses to climate change.     

Climate-driven range dynamics of the freshwater limpet, Ancylus fluviatilis (Pulmonata, Basommatophora)

Aim Our aim was to understand the processes that have shaped the present‐day distribution of the freshwater limpet Ancylus fluviatilis sensu stricto in order to predict the consequences of global climate change for the geographical range of this species. Location North‐western Europe. Methods We sampled populations of A. fluviatilis sensu stricto over the entire range of the species (north‐western Europe) and sequenced 16S ribosomal RNA (16S) and cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) mitochondrial fragments to perform phylogenetic and phylogeographical analyses. Climatic niche modelling allowed us to infer the climatic preferences of the species. A principal components analysis identified the most important climatic factors explaining the actual range of A. fluviatilis. We also identified which climatic factor was the most limiting at range margins, and predicted the species’ geographical range under a climate change scenario [Community Climate Model 3 (CCM3)]. Results By means of the phylogeographical analysis, we infer that A. fluviatilis sensu stricto occupied northern refuges during the Last Glacial Maximum. We show that the climatic preferences of Baltic populations are significantly different from those of Central European populations. The projection of the occupied area under the CCM3 climate model predicts a moderate poleward shift of the northern range limits, but a dramatic loss of areas currently occupied, for instance in northern Germany and in southern Great Britain. Main conclusions The post‐glacial range dynamics of A. fluviatilis are not governed by niche conservatism. Therefore, we must be cautious about bioclimatic model predictions: the expected impact of climate change could be tempered by the adaptive potential this species has already shown in its evolutionary history. Thus, modelling approaches should rather be seen as conservative forecasts of altered species ranges as long as the adaptive potential of the organisms in question cannot be predicted.     

Geographical pattern of genetic diversity in Capsella bursa‐pastoris (Brassicaceae)—A global perspective

We analyzed the global genetic variation pattern of Capsella bursa‐pastoris (Brassicaceae) as expressed in allozymic (within‐locus) diversity and isozymic (between‐locus) diversity. Results are based on a global sampling of more than 20,000 C. bursa‐pastoris individuals randomly taken from 1,469 natural provenances in the native and introduced range, covering a broad spectrum of the species’ geographic distribution. We evaluated data for population genetic parameters and F‐statistics, and Mantel tests and AMOVA were performed. Geographical distribution patterns of alleles and multilocus genotypes are shown in maps and tables. Genetic diversity of introduced populations is only moderately reduced in comparison with native populations. Global population structure was analyzed with structure, and the obtained cluster affiliation was tested independently with classification approaches and macroclimatic data using species distribution modeling. Analyses revealed two main clusters: one distributed predominantly in warm arid to semiarid climate regions and the other predominantly in more temperate humid to semihumid climate regions. We observed admixture between the two lineages predominantly in regions with intermediate humidity in both the native and non‐native ranges. The genetically derived clusters are strongly supported in macroclimatic data space. The worldwide distribution patterns of genetic variation in the range of C. bursa‐pastoris can be explained by intensive intra‐ and intercontinental migration, but environmental filtering due to climate preadaption seems also involved. Multiple independent introductions of genotypes from different source regions are obvious. “Endemic” genotypes might be the outcome of admixture or of de novo mutation. We conclude that today's successfully established Capsella genotypes were preadapted and found matching niche conditions in the colonized range parts.     

Causal mechanisms of evolution and the capacity for niche construction

Ernst Mayr proposed a distinction between “proximate”, mechanistic, and “ultimate”, evolutionary, causes of biological phenomena. This dichotomy has influenced the thinking of many biologists, but it is increasingly perceived as impeding modern studies of evolutionary processes, including study of “niche construction” in which organisms alter their environments in ways supportive of their evolutionary success. Some still find value for this dichotomy in its separation of answers to “how?” versus “why?”questions about evolution. But “why is A?” questions about evolution necessarily take the form “how does A occur?”, so this separation is illusory. Moreover, the dichotomy distorts our view of evolutionary causality, in that, contra Mayr, the action of natural selection, driven by genotype-phenotype-environment interactions which constitute adaptations, is no less “proximate” than the biological mechanisms which are altered by naturally selected genetic variants. Mayr’s dichotomy thus needs replacement by more realistic, mechanistic views of evolution. From a mechanistic viewpoint, there is a continuum of adaptations from those evolving as responses to unchanging environmental pressures to those evolving as the capacity for niche construction, and intermediate stages of this can be identified. Some biologists postulate an association of “phenotypic plasticity” (phenotype-environment covariation with genotype held constant) with capacity for niche construction. Both “plasticity” and niche construction comprise wide ranges of adaptive mechanisms, often fully heritable and resulting from case-specific evolution. Association of “plasticity” with niche construction is most likely to arise in systems wherein capacity for complex learning and behavioral flexibility have already evolved.     

Predicting the spread of an invasive plant: combining experiments and ecological niche model

Rapid evolutionary adjustments to novel environments may contribute to the successful spread of invasive species, and can lead to niche shifts making range dynamics unpredictable. These effects might be intensified by artificial selection in the course of breeding efforts, since many successful plant invaders were deliberately introduced and cultivated as ornamentals. We hypothesized that the invasion success of Buddleja davidii, the ornamental butterfly bush, is facilitated by local adaptation to minimum temperatures and thus, exhibits unpredictable range dynamics. To assess the potential effects of adaptive evolution and artificial selection on the spread of B. davidii, we combined a common garden experiment investigating local adaptation to frost, with ecological niche modelling of the species’ native and invasive ranges. We expected that populations naturalized in sub‐continental climate are less susceptible to frost than populations from oceanic climate, and that the invasive range does not match predictions based on climatic data from the native range. Indeed, we revealed significant variation among invasive B. davidii populations in frost resistance. However, frost hardiness was not related to geographic location or climatic variables of the populations’ home site, suggesting that invasive B. davidii populations are not locally adapted to minimum temperatures. This is in line with results of our ecological niche model that did not detect a niche shift between the species’ native range in China, and its invasive range in Europe and North America. Furthermore, our niche model showed that the potential invasive range of B. davidii is still not completely occupied. Together with the frost resistance data obtained in our experiment, the results indicate that climatic conditions are currently not limiting the further spread of the species in Europe and North America.     

The responses of grassland plants to experimentally simulated climate change depend on land use and region

Macroclimatic niche properties derived from species distribution ranges are fundamental for projections of climate change impacts on biodiversity. However, it has been recognized that changes in regional or local distribution patterns also depend on interactions with land use. The reliability and transferability of large scale geographic predictions to small scale plant performance need to be tested experimentally. Thus, we asked how grassland plant species pairs with different macroclimatic niche properties respond to increased spring temperature and decrease summer precipitation in three different land‐use types. An experiment was carried out in the framework of the German Biodiversity Exploratories simulating climate change in 45 experimental plots in three geographical regions (Schorfheide‐Chorin, Hainich‐Dün, Schwäbische Alb) and three grassland management types (meadow, pasture, mown pasture). We planted six plant species as phytometers, each two of them representing congeneric species with contrasting macroclimatic niches and recorded plant survival and growth over 1 year. To quantify the species macroclimatic niches with respect to drought tolerance, the species’ distribution ranges were mapped and combined with global climate data. The simulated climate change had a general negative effect on plant survival and plant growth, irrespective of the macroclimatic niche characteristics of the species. Against expectation, species with ranges extending into drier regions did not generally perform better under drier conditions. Growth performance and survival was best in mown pastures, representing a quite intensive type of land use in all study regions. Species with higher macroclimatic drought tolerance were generally characterized by lower growth rates and higher survival rates in land‐use types with regular mowing regimes, probably because of reduced competition in the growing season. In conclusion, plant species with similar climatic niche characteristics cannot be expected to respond consistently over different regions owing to complex interactions of climate change with land use practices.     

Unpacking the mechanisms captured by a correlative species distribution model to improve predictions of climate refugia

Climate refugia are regions that animals can retreat to, persist in and potentially then expand from under changing environmental conditions. Most forecasts of climate change refugia for species are based on correlative species distribution models (SDMs) using long‐term climate averages, projected to future climate scenarios. Limitations of such methods include the need to extrapolate into novel environments and uncertainty regarding the extent to which proximate variables included in the model capture processes driving distribution limits (and thus can be assumed to provide reliable predictions under new conditions). These limitations are well documented; however, their impact on the quality of climate refugia predictions is difficult to quantify. Here, we develop a detailed bioenergetics model for the koala. It indicates that range limits are driven by heat‐induced water stress, with the timing of rainfall and heat waves limiting the koala in the warmer parts of its range. We compare refugia predictions from the bioenergetics model with predictions from a suite of competing correlative SDMs under a range of future climate scenarios. SDMs were fitted using combinations of long‐term climate and weather extremes variables, to test how well each set of predictions captures the knowledge embedded in the bioenergetics model. Correlative models produced broadly similar predictions to the bioenergetics model across much of the species' current range – with SDMs that included weather extremes showing highest congruence. However, predictions in some regions diverged significantly when projecting to future climates due to the breakdown in correlation between climate variables. We provide unique insight into the mechanisms driving koala distribution and illustrate the importance of subtle relationships between the timing of weather events, particularly rain relative to hot‐spells, in driving species–climate relationships and distributions. By unpacking the mechanisms captured by correlative SDMs, we can increase our certainty in forecasts of climate change impacts on species.     

How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models

Criticism has been levelled at climate‐change‐induced forecasts of species range shifts that do not account explicitly for complex population dynamics. The relative importance of such dynamics under climate change is, however, undetermined because direct tests comparing the performance of demographic models vs. simpler ecological niche models are still lacking owing to difficulties in evaluating forecasts using real‐world data. We provide the first comparison of the skill of coupled ecological‐niche‐population models and ecological niche models in predicting documented shifts in the ranges of 20 British breeding bird species across a 40‐year period. Forecasts from models calibrated with data centred on 1970 were evaluated using data centred on 2010. We found that more complex coupled ecological‐niche‐population models (that account for dispersal and metapopulation dynamics) tend to have higher predictive accuracy in forecasting species range shifts than structurally simpler models that only account for variation in climate. However, these better forecasts are achieved only if ecological responses to climate change are simulated without static snapshots of historic land use, taken at a single point in time. In contrast, including both static land use and dynamic climate variables in simpler ecological niche models improve forecasts of observed range shifts. Despite being less skilful at predicting range changes at the grid‐cell level, ecological niche models do as well, or better, than more complex models at predicting the magnitude of relative change in range size. Therefore, ecological niche models can provide a reasonable first approximation of the magnitude of species' potential range shifts, especially when more detailed data are lacking on dispersal dynamics, demographic processes underpinning population performance, and change in land cover.     

Niche shift versus niche conservatism? Climatic characteristics of the native and invasive ranges of the Mediterranean house gecko (Hemidactylus turcicus)

Aim The use of ecological niche models (ENMs) to predict potential distributions of species is steadily increasing. A necessary assumption is that climatic niches are conservative, but recent findings of niche shifts during biological invasion indicate that this assumption is not always valid. Selection of predictor variables may be one reason for the observed shifts. In this paper we assess differences in climatic niches in the native and invaded ranges of the Mediterranean house gecko (Hemidactylus turcicus) in terms of commonly applied climate variables in ENMs. We analyse which variables are more conserved versus relaxed (i.e. subject to niche shift). Furthermore, we study the predictive power of different sets of climate variables. Location The Mediterranean region and North America. Methods We developed models using Maxent and various subsets of variables out of 19 bioclimatic layers including: (1) two subsets comprising almost all variables excluding only highly collinear ones; (2) two subsets with minimalistic variable sets of water availability and energy measures; (3) two subsets focused on temperature‐related parameters; (4) two subsets with precipitation‐related parameters; and (5) one subset comprising variables combining temperature and precipitation characteristics. Occurrence data from the native Mediterranean range were used to predict the potential introduced range in North America and vice versa. Degrees of niche similarity and conservatism were assessed using both Schoener's index and Hellinger distances. The significance of the results was tested using null models. Results The degree of niche similarity and conservatism varied greatly among the predictors and variable sets applied. Shifts observed in some variables could be attributed to active habitat selection while others apparently reflected background effects. Main conclusions The study was based on comprehensive occurrence data from all regions where Hemidactylus turcicus is present in Europe and North America, providing a robust foundation. Our results clearly indicate that the degree of conservatism of niches in H. turcicus largely varies among predictors and variable sets applied. Therefore, the extent of niche conservatism of variables applied should always be tested in ENMs. This has an important impact on studies of biological invasion, impacts of climate change and niche evolution.     

Reconstructing the demise of Tethyan plants: climate‐driven range dynamics of Laurus since the Pliocene

Aim Climate changes are thought to be responsible for the retreat and eventual extinction of subtropical lauroid species that covered much of Europe and North Africa during the Palaeogene and early Neogene; little is known, however, of the spatial and temporal patterns of this demise. Herein we calibrate ecological niche models to assess the climatic requirements of Laurus L. (Lauraceae), an emblematic relic from the Tethyan subtropical flora, subsequently using these models to infer how the range dynamics of Laurus were affected by Plio‐Pleistocene climate changes. We also provide predictions of likely range changes resulting from future climatic scenarios. Location The Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands (Canaries, Madeira, Azores). Methods We used a maximum‐entropy algorithm (Maxent) to model the relationship between climate and Laurus distribution over time. The models were fitted both to the present and to the middle Pliocene, based on fossil records. We employed climatic reconstructions for the mid‐Pliocene (3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and a CO₂‐doubling future scenario to project putative species distribution in each period. We validated the model projections with Laurus fossil and present occurrences. Results Laurus preferentially occupied warm and moist areas with low seasonality, showing a marked stasis of its climatic niche. Models fitted to Pliocene conditions successfully predicted the current species distribution. Large suitable areas existed during the Pliocene, which were strongly reduced during the Pleistocene, but humid refugia within the Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands enabled long‐term persistence. Future climate conditions are likely to re‐open areas suitable for colonization north of the current range. Main conclusions The climatic requirements of Laurus remained virtually unchanged over the last 3 Myr. This marked niche conservatism imposed largely deterministic range dynamics driven by climate conditions. This species's relatively high drought tolerance might account for the survival of Laurus in continental Europe throughout the Quaternary whilst other Lauraceae became extinct. Climatic scenarios for the end of this century would favour an expansion of the species's range towards northern latitudes, while severely limiting southern populations due to increased water stress.     

Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: “dispersal lags” affecting plant species’ spread along elevational gradients, “establishment lags” following their arrival in recipient communities, and “extinction lags” of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species’ range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide.     

Using genetic variation to infer associations with climate in the common frog,Rana temporaria

Recent and historical species' associations with climate can be inferred using molecular markers. This knowledge of population and species‐level responses to climatic variables can then be used to predict the potential consequences of ongoing climate change. The aim of this study was to predict responses of Rana temporaria to environmental change in Scotland by inferring historical and contemporary patterns of gene flow in relation to current variation in local thermal conditions. We first inferred colonization patterns within Europe following the last glacial maximum by combining new and previously published mitochondrial DNA sequences. We found that sequences from our Scottish samples were identical to (92%), or clustered with, the common haplotype previously identified from Western Europe. This clade showed very low mitochondrial variation, which did not allow inference of historical colonization routes but did allow interpretation of patterns of current fine‐scale population structure without consideration of confounding historical variation. Second, we assessed fine‐scale microsatellite‐based patterns of genetic variation in relation to current altitudinal temperature gradients. No population structure was found within altitudinal gradients (average F_ST = 0.02), despite a mean annual temperature difference of 4.5 °C between low‐ and high‐altitude sites. Levels of genetic diversity were considerable and did not vary between sites. The panmictic population structure observed, even along temperature gradients, is a potentially positive sign for R. temporaria persistence in Scotland in the face of a changing climate. This study demonstrates that within taxonomic groups, thought to be at high risk from environmental change, levels of vulnerability can vary, even within species.     

Towards the top: niche expansion of Taraxacum officinale and Ulex europaeus in mountain regions of South America

In the current context of ongoing global change, the understanding of how the niches of invasive species may change between different geographical areas or time periods is extremely important for the early detection and control of future invasions. We evaluated the effect of climate and non‐climate variables and the sensitivity to various spatial resolutions (i.e. 1 and 20 km) on niche changes during the invasion of Taraxacum officinale and Ulex europaeus in South America. We estimated niche changes using a combination of principal components analyses (PCA) and reciprocal Ecological Niche Modelling (rENM). We further investigated future invasion dynamics under a severe warming scenario for 2050 to unravel the role of niche shifts in the future potential distribution of the species. We observed a clear niche expansion for both species in South America towards higher temperature, precipitation and radiation relative to their native ranges. In contrast, the set of environmental conditions only occupied in the native ranges (i.e. niche unfilling) were less relevant. The magnitude of the niche shifts did not depend on the resolution of the variables. Models calibrated with occurrences from native range predicted large suitable areas in South America (outside of the Andes range) where T. officinale and U. europaeus are currently absent. Additionally, both species could increase their potential distributions by 2050, mostly in the southern part of the continent. In addition, the niche unfilling suggests high potential to invade additional regions in the future, which is extremely relevant considering the current impact of these species in the Southern Hemisphere. These findings confirm that invasive species can occupy new niches that are not predictable from knowledge based only on climate variables or information from the native range.     

Genetically informed ecological niche models improve climate change predictions

We examined the hypothesis that ecological niche models (ENMs) more accurately predict species distributions when they incorporate information on population genetic structure, and concomitantly, local adaptation. Local adaptation is common in species that span a range of environmental gradients (e.g., soils and climate). Moreover, common garden studies have demonstrated a covariance between neutral markers and functional traits associated with a species’ ability to adapt to environmental change. We therefore predicted that genetically distinct populations would respond differently to climate change, resulting in predicted distributions with little overlap. To test whether genetic information improves our ability to predict a species’ niche space, we created genetically informed ecological niche models (gENMs) using Populus fremontii (Salicaceae), a widespread tree species in which prior common garden experiments demonstrate strong evidence for local adaptation. Four major findings emerged: (i) gENMs predicted population occurrences with up to 12‐fold greater accuracy than models without genetic information; (ii) tests of niche similarity revealed that three ecotypes, identified on the basis of neutral genetic markers and locally adapted populations, are associated with differences in climate; (iii) our forecasts indicate that ongoing climate change will likely shift these ecotypes further apart in geographic space, resulting in greater niche divergence; (iv) ecotypes that currently exhibit the largest geographic distribution and niche breadth appear to be buffered the most from climate change. As diverse agents of selection shape genetic variability and structure within species, we argue that gENMs will lead to more accurate predictions of species distributions under climate change.     

Vanishing islands in the sky? A comparison of correlation- and mechanism-based forecasts of range dynamics for montane salamanders under climate change

Forecasting the effects of climate change on species and populations is a fundamental goal of conservation biology, especially for montane endemics which seemingly are under the greatest threat of extinction given their association with cool, high elevation habitats. Species distribution models (also known as niche models) predict where on the landscape there is suitable habitat for a species of interest. Correlative niche modeling, the most commonly employed approach to predict species' distributions, relies on correlations between species' localities and current environmental data. This type of model could spuriously forecast less future suitable habitat because species' current distributions may not adequately represent their thermal tolerance, and future climate conditions may not be analogous to current conditions. We compared the predicted distributions for three montane species of Plethodon salamanders in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North America using a correlative modeling approach and a mechanistic model. The mechanistic model incorporates species-specific physiology, morphology and behavior to predict an annual energy budget on the landscape. Both modeling approaches performed well at predicting the species' current distributions and predicted that all species could persist in habitats at higher elevation through 2085. The mechanistic model predicted more future suitable habitat than the correlative model. We attribute these differences to the mechanistic approach being able to model shifts in key range-limiting biological processes (changes in surface activity time and energy costs) that the correlative approach cannot. Choice of global circulation model (GCM) contributed significantly to distribution predictions, with a tenfold difference in future suitability based on GCM, indicating that GCM variability should be either directly included in models of species distributions or, indirectly, through the use of multi-model ensemble averages. Our results indicate that correlative models are over-predicting habitat loss for montane species, suggesting a critical need to incorporate mechanisms into forecasts of species' range dynamics.     

No species is an island: testing the effects of biotic interactions on models of avian niche occupation

Traditionally, the niche of a species is described as a hypothetical 3D space, constituted by well‐known biotic interactions (e.g. predation, competition, trophic relationships, resource–consumer interactions, etc.) and various abiotic environmental factors. Species distribution models (SDMs), also called “niche models” and often used to predict wildlife distribution at landscape scale, are typically constructed using abiotic factors with biotic interactions generally been ignored. Here, we compared the goodness of fit of SDMs for red‐backed shrike Lanius collurio in farmlands of Western Poland, using both the classical approach (modeled only on environmental variables) and the approach which included also other potentially associated bird species. The potential associations among species were derived from the relevant ecological literature and by a correlation matrix of occurrences. Our findings highlight the importance of including heterospecific interactions in improving our understanding of niche occupation for bird species. We suggest that suite of measures currently used to quantify realized species niches could be improved by also considering the occurrence of certain associated species. Then, an hypothetical “species 1” can use the occurrence of a successfully established individual of “species 2” as indicator or “trace” of the location of available suitable habitat to breed. We hypothesize this kind of biotic interaction as the “heterospecific trace effect” (HTE): an interaction based on the availability and use of “public information” provided by individuals from different species. Finally, we discuss about the incomes of biotic interactions for enhancing the predictive capacities on species distribution models.     

Geographic morphological variation in parapatric Western Palearctic tree frogs,Hyla arborea and Hyla savignyi: are related species similarly affected by climatic conditions?

Tree frogs Hyla arborea and Hyla savignyi are similar, closely‐related species distributed in Europe and the Middle East. We investigated geographic variation in body shape within and between these species, and tested its relationships to macroclimatic conditions. We used morphometric distances (based on size corrected external measurements) to construct phenetic trees (unweighted pair‐group method of arithmetical averages, Neighbour‐joining), and to test correlations between morphology, geography, and climate by the partial Mantel test. Regardless of their specific affiliation, the parapatric populations of both species from the eastern Mediterranean, where they occupy comparable habitats, are closer to each other in morphospace than to conspecific populations from distal regions. This local interspecific similarity is probably driven by the common response to environment, expressed here as macroclimatic conditions. In support, the geographically close but ecologically vicariant populations of both species from the Caucasus region differ quite substantially in body shape. We suggest that climate‐provoked phenotypic variation in closely‐related parapatric species should be taken into account as a potential complication to character displacement in morphology. Contrariwise, morphological diversification between related species or their populations could be enhanced by habitat shifts resulting in occupation of different environmental space. © 2008 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2008, 95 , 539–556.