Detecting early-warning signals for influenza A pandemic based on protein dynamical network biomarkers

The outbreak of influenza A comes from a relatively stable state is a critical phenomenon on epidemic. In this paper, influenza A varying from different states is studied in the method of dynamical network biomarkers (DNB). Through studying DNB of influenza A virus protein, we can detect the warning signals of outbreak for influenza A and obtain a composite index. The composite index varies along with the state of pandemic influenza, which gives a clue showing the turn point of outbreak. The low value (<1) steady state of the composite index means influenza A is normally in the relatively steady stage. Meanwhile, if the composite index of a certain year increases by more than 0.8 relative to the previous year and it is less than 1 and it increases sharply and reaches a peak being larger than 1 in next year, it means the year is normal in the critical state before outbreak and the next year is normally in the outbreak state. Therefore, we can predict the outbreak of influenza A and identify the critical state before influenza A outbreak or outbreak state by observing the variation of index value.     

生态系统的多稳态与突变

许多生态系统可能在短时间内发生难以预料的状态突变, 其中一些生态系统突变的机理可以用多稳态理论进行解释。近年来生态系统的多稳态和突变现象及其机理吸引了研究者和管理者的广泛关注。本文重点对生态系统多稳态的理论基础、识别方法及稳态转换发生的早期预警信号进行综述, 并基于典型生态系统过程对现实世界中可能观测到的稳态转换进行实例分析, 最后对多稳态概念框架和理论应用中的潜在争议进行讨论, 以期为非线性生态系统动态的理论研究、管理实践和生物多样性保护等提供参考。     

生态系统多稳态研究进展

在多稳态的生态系统中,外力可能导致生态系统状态突然之间发生不可逆转的转变,从而达到一个新的平衡状态。但目前对多稳态理论的系统研究很少,如何使用预警信号来预测生态系统的状态转变依旧是个难题。通过多稳态理论的梳理提出了一个更加综合的多稳态定义,并以放牧模型为例,系统总结了多稳态理论的相关概念,将多稳态理论应用在生态系统演替和扰沌理论的解释中;通过对生态系统稳态转换预警信号的原理、优缺点和应用条件的分析,对不同尺度下多稳态的研究方法进行了归纳;最后提出了目前多稳态领域的研究问题和未来的研究重点。结果表明:(1)将时间和空间预警信号结合在一起,并量化正确预警信号的概率,对错误预警信号的比例进行加权,可能会提供更准确的稳态转换的预报。(2)定量观测试验适用于小尺度的研究,而较大尺度的研究则采用简化的模型来模拟研究,选择正确的尺度极有可能改变预警信号的可靠性。(3)结合多稳态理论研究生态系统临界转换和反馈控制机制,并将基于性状的特征指标和进化动力学纳入其中,是生态系统修复实践的重要研究方向。(4)将多稳态相关理论和生态保护管理政策的实践相结合,是多稳态理论未来应用的前景。本研究为多稳态理论和实践的...     

Regression,proliferation and development of lip papillomas in wild white suckers,Catostomus commersoni,held in the laboratory

Synopsis Epizootics of skin neoplasms in teleost species have been documented within the Great Lakes region over the last decade. The white sucker,Catostomus commersoni, has been proposed as a sentinel species to monitor environmental health in these systems. The prevalence of skin neoplasia is elevated in white suckers and other fish taken from chemically polluted sites or from lake regions adjacent to heavy industry. Lip papillomas regress and proliferate spontaneously in captive wild suckers. It is important to investigate the relevance of these observations to papilloma etiology to determine whether the prevalence of this disease is a suitable biomarker for environmental health. White suckers were captured in the spring of 1992 and 1993 during annual spawning runs (mid to late April) at the Ganaraska River, which discharges into Lake Ontario at Port Hope, Ontario. Under crowded laboratory conditions, there was either proliferation of existing papillomas or development of new papillomas. However, in uncrowded conditions, existing papillomas either regressed completely or there was no development of new papillomas. Protein Kinase C (PKC), a proposed marker enzyme for hyperplasia and neoplasia, was used to determine if regressing and proliferating papillomas could be differentiated on the basis of biochemical activity. PKC activity was lower in proliferating papillomas, but not significantly different from papillomas sampled initially from Ganaraska River suckers. Regressing papillomatous tissue displayed a significantly higher level of enzyme activity than either proliferating or unchanged papillomas, but the PKC activity of regressing papillomas was not significantly different from that of normal lip epidermis.     

Possible relationship of PFGE patterns of Moraxella catarrhalis between hospital- and community-acquired respiratory infections in a community hospital

We describe a prospective study of molecular analysis of Moraxella catarrhalis isolated from a community hospital. Our study was designed to investigate the possible relationship of pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) patterns of M. catarrhalis between hospital- and community-acquired respiratory infections. A nosocomial outbreak of M. catarrhalis was observed between September 2000 and September 2001. During the study period, 40 strains of M. catarrhalis were isolated from a total of 32 patients with respiratory infections (26 strains from 18 inpatients, and 14 strains from 14 outpatients). We compared the PFGE patterns in 40 strains of M. catarrhalis isolated from the respiratory tract of the study patients. The genomic types of M. catarrhalis were classified into three PFGE patterns (A, B, and C). Interestingly, the nosocomial outbreak of M. catarrhalis included two patterns (A and B). Of the three patterns, two patterns (A and B) were found in both inpatients and outpatients. More interestingly, two subtypes of pattern B (B1 and B4) were simultaneously found in both inpatients and outpatients. Our results indicated that PFGE with SmaI chromosomal digestion is a suitable technique to establish the inter-strain genetic relatedness of M. catarrhalis, and suggested that the outbreak of M. catarrhalis occasionally included miscellaneous PFGE patterns. The results also showed that PFGE patterns of M. catarrhalis isolates were similar between hospital- and community-acquired respiratory infections. Analysis of the subtypes suggested that there might be some association between hospital- and community-acquired respiratory infections caused by M. catarrhalis.     

The cytoskeleton-dependent localization of cdc2/cyclin B in blastomere cortex during Xenopus embryonic cell cycle

In the early development of the frog, Xenopus laevis, blastomeres undergo synchronous divisions at about the 12th cell cycle, followed by asynchronous divisions, which is referred to as mid-blastula transition (MBT). We investigated the distribution of several regulating factors for cell cycles around MBT using immunocytochemistry and confocal fluorescence microscopy. At the 8th cell cycle, most of the cdc2/cyclin B was localized in the cortical cytoplasm throughout the cell cycle, in the centrosomes and the nucleus at interphase and prometaphase, and in the spindles at metaphase and anaphase. Cdc2 was also localized in the chromatins at metaphase and anaphase. Cyclin B1 mRNA was localized in the periphery of the nucleus, but not in the cell cortex. At the 13th cell cycle, the amount of cdc2/cyclin B in the cortical cytoplasm decreased, and the inactive form of cdc2, phosphorylated at tyrosine 15, appeared in the nucleus and the centrosomes at interphase, indicating that the regulation of cdc2 by phosphorylation occurs around MBT. When the blastomeres were treated with nocodazole or latrunculin A at the 8th cell cycle, the amount of cortical cdc2 decreased, but that of cyclin B did not change. The cortical localization of cdc2 is dependent upon both microtubules and microfilaments. Most of the cdc27 was localized in the centrosomes, and in the spindle poles, but no significant difference was observed between the 8th and the 13th cell cycles. It is possible that the cortical MPF activity is regulated by the differential localization between cdc2 and cyclin B.     

改良早期预警评分对转院转运工作影响的临床研究

目的 研究改良早期预警（MEWS）评分对转院转运工作的影响.方法 在转院转运工作中应用MEWS评分系统对患者进行病情评估,对比其应用前（对照组）、应用后（研究组）转院患者转运途中病情恶化的发生率、患者或家属满意度及医生、护士对实施MEWS评分转运管理模式前（对照组）、后（研究组）满意度的变化.结果 转院患者转运途中病情恶化发生率由应用前（对照组）的10.63%降至应用后（研究组）的3.74%,应用前、后比较差异有显著统计学意义（P＜0.01）;患方满意度则由96%提高至99%,医护人员对实施MEWS评分转运管理模式前、后的满意度由应用前的83.3%提高至应用后的95%,应用前、后比较均有显著性意义（P＜0.05）.结论 MEWS评分能对转院患者的病情进行比较客观、准确的评估,提高了医务人员的质量和医疗干预意识,从而有效降低转院患者转运途中的病情恶化发生率和提高院前医患双方的满意度,是转院转运工作中简便、快捷、客观、实用的病情评估方法和模式,值得推广应用.     

神经网络预警系统及其在害虫预测中的应用

利用神经网络的基本原理 ,结合气象因子以及江苏通州市田间褐飞虱发生程度的实测数据 ,建立了该地的神经网络长期预警系统。经实例验证 ,该方法的预测精度达 80 % ,为害虫的长期可预测性提供了一种新的方法     

MEWS系统在指导院前急性脑血管意外急救的临床应用

目的 探讨应用改良早期预警（MEWS）评分指导急性脑血管意外院前急救的临床价值.方法 将院前急救中临床诊断为急性脑血管意外的患者分为常规病情评估急救组（对照组）和进行现场MEWS评分指导急救组（实验组）,并比较两组患者的病死率及好转出院率.结果 对照组病死率为17.23%,好转出院率为82.77%;实验组病死率为8.76%,好转出院率为91.24%.两组比较,差异有统计学意义（P＜0.05）.结论 急性脑血管意外患者院前应用MEWS评分进行病情评估和指导急救,能降低患者的病死率及提高好转出院率,具有较好的应用价值,值得在院前脑血管意外急救中推广应用.     

Does selective logging stress tropical forest invertebrates? Using fat stores to examine sublethal responses in dung beetles

The increased global demand for tropical timber has driven vast expanses of tropical forests to be selectively logged worldwide. While logging impacts on wildlife are predicted to change species distribution and abundance, the underlying physiological responses are poorly understood. Although there is a growing consensus that selective logging impacts on natural populations start with individual stress‐induced sublethal responses, this literature is dominated by investigations conducted with vertebrates from temperate zones. Moreover, the sublethal effects of human‐induced forest disturbance on tropical invertebrates have never been examined. To help address this knowledge gap, we examined the body fat content and relative abundance of three dung beetle species (Coleoptera: Scarabaeinae) with minimum abundance of 40 individuals within each examined treatment level. These were sampled across 34 plots in a before‐after control‐impact design (BACI) in a timber concession area of the Brazilian Amazon. For the first time, we present evidence of logging‐induced physiological stress responses in tropical invertebrates. Selective logging increased the individual levels of fat storage and reduced the relative abundance of two dung beetle species. Given this qualitative similarity, we support the measurement of body fat content as reliable biomarker to assess stress‐induced sublethal effects on dung beetles. Understanding how environmental modification impacts the wildlife has never been more important. Our novel approach provides new insights into the mechanisms through which forest disturbances impose population‐level impacts on tropical invertebrates.