A Suite of Models to Support the Quantitative Assessment of Spread in Pest Risk Analysis

Pest Risk Analyses (PRAs) are conducted worldwide to decide whether and how exotic plant pests should be regulated to prevent invasion. There is an increasing demand for science-based risk mapping in PRA. Spread plays a key role in determining the potential distribution of pests, but there is no suitable spread modelling tool available for pest risk analysts. Existing models are species specific, biologically and technically complex, and data hungry. Here we present a set of four simple and generic spread models that can be parameterised with limited data. Simulations with these models generate maps of the potential expansion of an invasive species at continental scale. The models have one to three biological parameters. They differ in whether they treat spatial processes implicitly or explicitly, and in whether they consider pest density or pest presence/absence only. The four models represent four complementary perspectives on the process of invasion and, because they have different initial conditions, they can be considered as alternative scenarios. All models take into account habitat distribution and climate. We present an application of each of the four models to the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, using historic data on its spread in Europe. Further tests as proof of concept were conducted with a broad range of taxa (insects, nematodes, plants, and plant pathogens). Pest risk analysts, the intended model users, found the model outputs to be generally credible and useful. The estimation of parameters from data requires insights into population dynamics theory, and this requires guidance. If used appropriately, these generic spread models provide a transparent and objective tool for evaluating the potential spread of pests in PRAs. Further work is needed to validate models, build familiarity in the user community and create a database of species parameters to help realize their potential in PRA practice.     

Distribution of cryptic blue oat mite species in Australia: current and future climate conditions

• 1 Invertebrate pests, such as blue oat mites Penthaleus spp., cause significant economic damage to agricultural crops in Australia. Climate is a major driver of invertebrate species distributions and climate change is expected to shift pest assemblages and pest prevalence across Australia. At this stage, little is known of how individual species will respond to climate change.
• 2 We have mapped the current distribution for each of the three pest Penthaleus spp. in Australia and built ecological niche models for each species using the correlative modelling software, maxent . Predictor variables useful for describing the climate space of each species were determined and the models were projected into a range of future climate change scenarios to assess how climate change may alter species‐specific distribution patterns in Australia.
• 3 The distributions of the three cryptic Penthaleus spp. are best described with different sets of climatic variables. Suitable climate space for all species decreases under the climate change scenarios investigated in the present study. The models also indicate that the assemblage of Penthaleus spp. is likely to change across Australia, particularly in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria.
• 4 These results show the distributions of the three Penthaleus spp. are correlated with different climatic variables, and that regional control of mite pests is likely to change in the future. A further understanding of ecological and physiological processes that may influence the distribution and pest status of mites is required.

     

Physiology in ecological niche modeling: using zebra mussel's upper thermal tolerance to refine model predictions through Bayesian analysis

Climate change and human-mediated dispersal are increasingly influencing species’ geographic distributions. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are widely used in forecasting species’ distributions, but are weak in extrapolation to novel environments because they rely on available distributional data and do not incorporate mechanistic information, such as species’ physiological response to abiotic conditions. To improve accuracy of ENMs, we incorporated physiological knowledge through Bayesian analysis. In a case study of the zebra mussel Dreissena polymorpha, we used native and global occurrences to obtain native and global models representing narrower and broader understanding of zebra mussel’ response to temperature. We also obtained thermal limit and survival information for zebra mussel from peer-reviewed literature and used the two types of information separately and jointly to calibrate native models. We showed that, compared to global models, native models predicted lower relative probability of presence along zebra mussel's upper thermal limit, suggesting the shortcoming of native models in predicting zebra mussel's response to warm temperature. We also found that native models showed improved prediction of relative probability of presence when thermal limit was used alone, and best approximated global models when both thermal limit and survival data were used. Our result suggests that integration of physiological knowledge enhances extrapolation of ENM in novel environments. Our modeling framework can be generalized for other species or other physiological limits and may incorporate evolutionary information (e.g. evolved thermal tolerance), thus has the potential to improve predictions of species’ invasive potential and distributional response to climate change.     

Composition of stem borer communities in selected vegetation mosaics in Kenya

Busseola fusca (Fuller), Sesamia calamistis Hampson, Chilo partellus (Swinhoe) and Chilo orichalcociliellus (Strand) are important stem borer pests of maize and sorghum in East Africa. Persistence of these pests in crop fields is blamed on the influx of diaspore populations from the neighbouring natural habitats. In addition to pest species, natural habitats support numerous non-economic stem borer species, some not known to science. However, due to growing human populations and accompanying global change, some of the natural habitats are undergoing rapid changes, a process that may result in the evolution of “new” pest species. In this study, we investigated stem borer species diversity in four different vegetation mosaics in Kenya, with an aim of establishing the differences in species composition and distributions in both wild and cultivated habitats. We identified 33 stem borer species belonging to 14 different genera in the four families; Noctuidae, Crambidae, Pyralidae and Tortricidae from 37 plant species. In addition to the above stem borer pest species, we found three more species, Busseola segeta Bowden, Pirateolea piscator Fletcher and Eldana saccharina Walker, in the cultivated fields. Together, stem borer pests varied in distribution among vegetation mosaics, suggesting differences in ecological requirement. Despite the variations in distribution patterns, stem borer pests co-existed with non-economic species in the natural habitats, communities that are facing threats due to ongoing habitat changes. This paper discusses the likely impacts of habitat changes on both pest and non-economic species.     

Geographical differences in habitat relationships of cetaceans across an ocean basin

The distributions of highly mobile marine species such as cetaceans are increasingly modeled at basin scale by combining data from multiple regions. However, these basin-wide models often overlook geographical variations in species habitat relationships between regions. We tested for geographical variations in habitat relationships for a suite of cetacean taxa between the two sides of the North Atlantic basin. Using cetacean visual survey data and remote sensing data from the western and eastern basin in summer, we related the probability of presence of twelve cetacean taxa from three guilds to seafloor depth, sea surface temperature and primary productivity. In a generalized additive model framework, we fitted 1) basin-wide (BW) models, assuming a single global relationship, 2) region-specific intercepts (RI) models, assuming relationships with the same shape in both regions, but allowing a region-specific intercept and 3) region-specific shape (RS) models, assuming relationships with different shapes between regions. RS models mostly yielded significantly better fits than BW models, indicating cetacean occurrences were better modeled with region-specific than with global relationships. The better fits of RS models over RI models further provided statistical evidence for differences in the shapes of region-specific relationships. Baleen whales showed striking differences in both the shapes of relationships and their mean presence probabilities between regions. Deep diving whales and delphinoids showed contrasting relationships between regions with few exceptions (e.g. non-statistically different shapes of region-specific relationships for harbor porpoise and beaked whales with depth). Our findings stress the need to account for geographical differences in habitat relationships between regions when modeling species distributions from combined data at the basin scale. Our proposed hypotheses offer a roadmap for understanding why habitat relationships may geographically vary in cetaceans and other highly mobile marine species.     

Using lower trophic level factors to predict outcomes in classical biological control of insect pests

Importation of exotic natural enemies for biological control of insect pests entails risks to the environment. Pre-release estimates of the likelihood of achieving successful control would be helpful in avoiding ineffective importations. Based on strong evidence of multi-trophic level interactions in terrestrial ecosystems, we tested whether variation in ecological and biological factors found at the plant and herbivore trophic levels (levels one and two) could be used to create a simple, empirically based formula, capable of estimating the probability of successful biological control against holometabolous insect pests. We constructed a database consisting of 828 records of biological control attempts against 91 pest insect species and used stepwise logistic regression to test whether five basic features of the ecosystem, crop, and pest (habitat type, crop use, pest order, pest feeding niche, and damage severity) were correlated with rates of successful control. Natural enemy characteristics were not included in the model. The final model included 10 significant independent variables, nine of which were two-way interactions; all five basic ecosystem features appeared in significant interactions. The model provided good estimates of historical success rates against pest species in the data set. In a further test, the model was able to correctly rank amenability to biological control for 10 pest species not included in the original data set. These results provide evidence that lower trophic level factors can be useful in the search for a predictive formula for biological control.     

Insect pest management in the age of synthetic biology

Arthropod crop pests are responsible for 20% of global annual crop losses, a figure predicted to increase in a changing climate where the ranges of numerous species are projected to expand. At the same time, many insect species are beneficial, acting as pollinators and predators of pest species. For thousands of years, humans have used increasingly sophisticated chemical formulations to control insect pests but, as the scale of agriculture expanded to meet the needs of the global population, concerns about the negative impacts of agricultural practices on biodiversity have grown. While biological solutions, such as biological control agents and pheromones, have previously had relatively minor roles in pest management, biotechnology has opened the door to numerous new approaches for controlling insect pests. In this review, we look at how advances in synthetic biology and biotechnology are providing new options for pest control. We discuss emerging technologies for engineering resistant crops and insect populations and examine advances in biomanufacturing that are enabling the production of new products for pest control.     

The Lepidoptera Associated with Forestry Crop Species in Brazil: a Historical Approach

Despite the long history of forestry activity in Brazil and its importance to the national economy, there is still much disorder in the information regarding pests of forestry species. Considering the importance of the entomological knowledge for the viability of silvicultural management, this work aimed to gather information on the species of Lepidoptera associated with forestry crops within Brazil using a historical approach. Through a literature review, all registered species of Lepidoptera related to forestry crops in Brazil from 1896 to 2010 were identified. The historical evaluation was based on the comparison of the number of published articles, species richness, and community similarities of the Lepidoptera and their associated forest crops, grouped in 10-year samples. A total of 417 occurrences of Lepidoptera associated with forestry species were recorded, from which 84 species are related with 40 different forestry crops. The nocturnal Lepidoptera were dominant on the records, with Eacles imperialis magnifica Walker as the most frequent pest species cited. Myrtaceae was the most frequent plant family, with Cedrela fissilis as the most cited forestry crop species. A successional change in both Lepidoptera species and their host plants was observed over the decades. The richness of lepidopteran pest species increased over the years, unlike the richness of forestry crop species. This increase could be related to the inefficient enforcement of sanitary barriers, to the increase of monoculture areas, and to the adaptability of native pests to exotic forestry species used in monoculture stands.     

Changes in the distribution of multispecies pest assemblages affect levels of crop damage in warming tropical Andes

Climate induced species range shifts might create novel interactions among species that may outweigh direct climatic effects. In an agricultural context, climate change might alter the intensity of competition or facilitation interactions among pests with, potentially, negative consequences on the levels of damage to crop. This could threaten the productivity of agricultural systems and have negative impacts on food security, but has yet been poorly considered in studies. In this contribution, we constructed and evaluated process‐based species distribution models for three invasive potato pests in the Tropical Andean Region. These three species have been found to co‐occur and interact within the same potato tuber, causing different levels of damage to crop. Our models allowed us to predict the current and future distribution of the species and therefore, to assess how damage to crop might change in the future due to novel interactions. In general, our study revealed the main challenges related to distribution modeling of invasive pests in highly heterogeneous regions. It yielded different results for the three species, both in terms of accuracy and distribution, with one species surviving best at lower altitudes and the other two performing better at higher altitudes. As to future distributions our results suggested that the three species will show different responses to climate change, with one of them expanding to higher altitudes, another contracting its range and the other shifting its distribution to higher altitudes. These changes will result in novel areas of co‐occurrence and hence, interactions of the pests, which will cause different levels of damage to crop. Combining population dynamics and species distribution models that incorporate interspecific trade‐off relationships in different environments revealed a powerful approach to provide predictions about the response of an assemblage of interacting species to future environmental changes and their impact on process rates.     

Estimation of the probability of insect pest introduction through imported commodities

A quantitative risk assessment is needed for each quarantine pest insect to ensure quarantine security without sacrificing the transparency of international trade. The probability of introduction, which is defined as the probability that one or more reproductive individuals of a pest insect species pass the port, is one of the basic components determining the risk of pest invasion. The probability depends on two biological characteristics of pests: mode of reproduction and spatial distribution of insects per host plant. In this article, the probability of introduction was calculated for each of the following four categories: (1) bisexual, gregarious pests; (2) bisexual, solitary pests; (3) parthenogenetic, gregarious pests; and (4) parthenogenetic, solitary pests. Then, equations were derived to predict the effects of two prevention practices conducted before export: disinfestation treatment and the subsequent export sampling inspection of consignments. These equations also enable estimation of the probability of introduction under natural mortality, which thus can be used in place of the criterion of Maximum Pest Limit (MPL). The method was applied to the Mexican fruit fly Anastrepha ludens (Loew), as an example. The contour graph of the probability of introduction indicated the optimal combination of the intensity of two prevention practices that ensures a given security level. Existence of an antagonistic interaction was also indicated between the disinfestation treatment and the subsequent sampling inspection. Received: January 22, 1999 / Accepted: September 6, 1999     

virtualspecies,an R package to generate virtual species distributions

virtualspecies is a freely available package for R designed to generate virtual species distributions, a procedure increasingly used in ecology to improve species distribution models. This package combines the existing methodological approaches with the objective of generating virtual species distributions with increased ecological realism. The package includes 1) generating the probability of occurrence of a virtual species from a spatial set of environmental conditions (i.e. environmental suitability), with two different approaches; 2) converting the environmental suitability into presence–absence with a probabilistic approach; 3) introducing dispersal limitations in the realised virtual species distributions and 4) sampling occurrences with different biases in the sampling procedure. The package was designed to be extremely flexible, to allow users to simulate their own defined species–environment relationships, as well as to provide a fine control over every simulation parameter. The package also includes a function to generate random virtual species distributions. We provide a simple example in this paper showing how increasing ecological realism of the virtual species impacts the predictive performance of species distribution models. We expect that this new package will be valuable to researchers willing to test techniques and protocols of species distribution models as well as various biogeographical hypotheses.     

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest‐restricted birds in Madagascar

The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo‐presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real‐presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo‐presence data. Using real‐presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.     

Economic impact of exotic insect pests in Brazilian agriculture

Agriculture represents one of the major strengths of the economic sector in Brazil. The need to avoid economic losses because of insect pest populations is one of the greatest challenges faced by this sector. Insect pests have caused annual losses of US$12.0 billion to the Brazilian economy, of which approximately US$1.6 billion are because of exotic pest species. Furthermore, exotic insect species often show greater potential to cause harm than native species. In Brazil, since the late nineteenth century, 24 species of insect pests have been introduced into the country, and they have caused significant economic losses. Many of these species, including Bemisia tabaci, Hypothenemus hampei, Ceratitis capitata, Oryzophagus oryzae and Anthonomus grandis, are major crop pests, and they were accidentally introduced during trading of agricultural products. In this review, we present an overview of Brazilian agriculture, a brief history of the introduction of insect pests in the country and the Brazilian legislation on agricultural defence, and we estimate the economic losses caused to the Brazilian economy by the main insect pest species that have been introduced into Brazil over the last 112 years.     

Niche shifts during the global invasion of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae), revealed by reciprocal distribution models

Aim Niche‐based distribution models are often used to predict the spread of invasive species. These models assume niche conservation during invasion, but invasive species can have different requirements from populations in their native range for many reasons, including niche evolution. I used distribution modelling to investigate niche conservatism for the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus Skuse) during its invasion of three continents. I also used this approach to predict areas at risk of invasion from propagules originating from invasive populations. Location Models were created for Southeast Asia, North and South America, and Europe. Methods I used maximum entropy (Maxent ) to create distribution models using occurrence data and 18 environmental datasets. One native model was created for Southeast Asia; this model was projected onto North America, South America and Europe. Three models were created independently for the non‐native ranges and projected onto the native range. Niche overlap between native and non‐native predictions was evaluated by comparing probability surfaces between models using real data and random models generated using a permutation approach. Results The native model failed to predict an entire region of occurrences in South America, approximately 20% of occurrences in North America and nearly all Italian occurrences of A. albopictus. Non‐native models poorly predict the native range, but predict additional areas at risk for invasion globally. Niche overlap metrics indicate that non‐native distributions are more similar to the native niche than a random prediction, but they are not equivalent. Multivariate analyses support modelled differences in niche characteristics among continents, and reveal important variables explaining these differences. Main conclusions The niche of A. albopictus has shifted on invaded continents relative to its native range (Southeast Asia). Statistical comparisons reveal that the niche for introduced distributions is not equivalent to the native niche. Furthermore, reciprocal models highlight the importance of controlling bi‐directional dispersal between native and non‐native distributions.     

Meligethes aeneus oviposition preferences,larval parasitism rate and species composition of parasitoids on Brassica nigra,Raphanus sativus and Eruca sativa compared with on Brassica napus

The trap crop strategy is based on host plant discrimination by pests and their parasitoids, which may respond differently to various host plant cues, thus affecting their respective population distributions. We conducted a three-year study to compare the responses of the most damaging pest of oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.), the pollen beetle (Meligethes aeneus Fab.), and its hymenopteran parasitoids to various potential trap crops: Brassica nigra L., Raphanus sativus var. olifera Pers. and Eruca sativa Mill. with that to B. napus. We recorded their abundance, oviposition preferences and the species composition of the parasitoids.Our results show that oviposition rates of the pollen beetle and its parasitoids as well the species composition of the parasitoids varies with plant species. We discuss the potential of these plant species, especially B. nigra, to enhance the natural control of the beetle by fostering several parasitoid species. The species composition of the parasitoids on different host plants compared with on B. napus is presented for the first time. In addition to trapping pests, the trap crops could also act as parasitoid banks, enhancing natural control of the pest through providing suitable hosts for natural enemies, without increasing the population growth of the next generation of pests.     

Effects of Drought,Pest Pressure and Light Availability on Seedling Establishment and Growth: Their Role for Distribution of Tree Species across a Tropical Rainfall Gradient

Tree species distributions associated with rainfall are among the most prominent patterns in tropical forests. Understanding the mechanisms shaping these patterns is important to project impacts of global climate change on tree distributions and diversity in the tropics. Beside direct effects of water availability, additional factors co-varying with rainfall have been hypothesized to play an important role, including pest pressure and light availability. While low water availability is expected to exclude drought-intolerant wet forest species from drier forests (physiological tolerance hypothesis), high pest pressure or low light availability are hypothesized to exclude dry forest species from wetter forests (pest pressure gradient and light availability hypothesis, respectively). To test these hypotheses at the seed-to-seedling transition, the potentially most critical stage for species discrimination, we conducted a reciprocal transplant experiment combined with a pest exclosure treatment at a wet and a dry forest site in Panama with seeds of 26 species with contrasting origin. Establishment success after one year did not reflect species distribution patterns. However, in the wet forest, wet origin species had a home advantage over dry forest species through higher growth rates. At the same time, drought limited survival of wet origin species in the dry forest, supporting the physiological tolerance hypothesis. Together these processes sort species over longer time frames, and exclude species outside their respective home range. Although we found pronounced effects of pests and some effects of light availability on the seedlings, they did not corroborate the pest pressure nor light availability hypotheses at the seed-to-seedling transition. Our results underline that changes in water availability due to climate change will have direct consequences on tree regeneration and distributions along tropical rainfall gradients, while indirect effects of light and pests are less important.     

Predicting potential distributions of two rare allopatric sister species,the globally threatened Doliornis cotingas in the Andes

ABSTRACT Conservation of rare, elusive species is difficult because of limited knowledge of their biology and distribution. The two species of Doliornis cotingas are known from 7 (Chestnut‐bellied Cotinga, D. remseni) and 13 (Bay‐vented Cotinga, Doliornis sclateri) locations, respectively. Their limited ranges in combination with habitat loss make them vulnerable to extinction. We modeled the potential distribution of these two rare, allopatric sister species separated by an orographic barrier using species distribution modeling with an ensemble forecast approach using eight modeling techniques. Predicted distributions (with conservative thresholds of probability of presence, i.e., lowest presence thresholds) for these sister species showed virtually no overlap, although their respective niches were statistically not dissimilar. Hence, the existence of the recently discovered Chestnut‐bellied Cotinga could not have been predicted from the range of its sister species, unless using very crude distribution models (with extensive extrapolation). New areas of likely occurrences were identified for both species, and the genus, and will be useful for directing future field searches. The estimates of potentially suitable range for both species still qualify both species as “vulnerable to extinction.” Our study illustrates how opportunistic records collected by field ornithologists can be objectively transformed, with the help of existing software, into information potentially useful in the conservation of rare species.     

Effects of crop species richness on pest-natural enemy systems based on an experimental model system using a microlandscape

The relationship between crop richness and predator-prey interactions as they relate to pest-natural enemy systems is a very important topic in ecology and greatly affects biological control services. The effects of crop arrangement on predator-prey interactions have received much attention as the basis for pest population management. To explore the internal mechanisms and factors driving the relationship between crop richness and pest population management, we designed an experimental model system of a microlandscape that included 50 plots and five treatments. Each treatment had 10 repetitions in each year from 2007 to 2010. The results showed that the biomass of pests and their natural enemies increased with increasing crop biomass and decreased with decreasing crop biomass; however, the effects of plant biomass on the pest and natural enemy biomass were not significant. The relationship between adjacent trophic levels was significant (such as pests and their natural enemies or crops and pests), whereas non-adjacent trophic levels (crops and natural enemies) did not significantly interact with each other. The ratio of natural enemy/pest biomass was the highest in the areas of four crop species that had the best biological control service. Having either low or high crop species richness did not enhance the pest population management service and lead to loss of biological control. Although the resource concentration hypothesis was not well supported by our results, high crop species richness could suppress the pest population, indicating that crop species richness could enhance biological control services. These results could be applied in habitat management aimed at biological control, provide the theoretical basis for agricultural landscape design, and also suggest new methods for integrated pest management.     

Using measurement error models to account for georeferencing error in species distribution models

Georeferencing error is prevalent in datasets used to model species distributions, inducing uncertainty in covariate values associated with species occurrences that result in biased probability of occurrence estimates. Traditionally, this error has been dealt with at the data‐level by using only records with an acceptable level of error (filtering) or by summarizing covariates at sampling units by using measures of central tendency (averaging). Here we compare those previous approaches to a novel implementation of a Bayesian logistic regression with measurement error (ME), a seldom used method in species distribution modeling. We show that the ME model outperforms data‐level approaches on 1) specialist species and 2) when either sample sizes are small, the georeferencing error is large or when all georeferenced occurrences have a fixed level of error. Thus, for certain types of species and datasets the ME model is an effective method to reduce biases in probability of occurrence estimates and account for the uncertainty generated by georeferencing error. Our approach may be expanded for its use with presence‐only data as well as to include other sources of uncertainty in species distribution models.     

Can natural enemies of current insect pests provide biotic resistance to future pests?

1. Economic pests jeopardize agricultural production worldwide. Classical biological control, comprising the import of exotic natural enemies to control target pest populations, has a successful history in many countries. However, little is known about how these natural enemies contribute to the suppression of pests that are yet to arrive. Biotic resistance theory, though, posits that communities resist species invasions as a result of natural enemies.
2. We assessed the potential of the resident exotic parasitoid wasp fauna in New Zealand (intentionally‐introduced biological control agents and unintentionally‐introduced species) to provide biotic resistance against possible future pests. A dataset was generated containing resident exotic parasitoid species (Ichneumonoidea: Braconidae; Ichneumonidae) in New Zealand, as well as their known global host ranges and the pest status of host species, to infer the potential for biotic resistance.
3. The known exotic ichneumonoid fauna in New Zealand comprises 65 species. These species associate with 107 host species in New Zealand, of which 54 species are pests. However, the current exotic species could potentially suppress 442 pest species not yet occurring in New Zealand.
4. This approach could be used to inform pest management programmes worldwide. Future research should consider how biotic resistance from the established parasitoid fauna can be used to inform specific decisions with respect to classical biological control.