A modified framework for the regional assessment of climate and human impacts on net primary productivity

Improving models that depict the components of net primary production (NPP) in ecosystems will help us to better understand how climate change and human activities affect the biosphere. In this study, NPP_gap was introduced into the present human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) framework. We introduced NPP_gap in this study as potential NPP (NPP_pot) minus the sum of ecosystem NPP (NPP_eco) and HANPP, which relates to the ability of models to depict NPP components. Using the Lhasa River region of the Tibetan Plateau, we examined temporal and spatial variations in the components of NPP over a 10-year period. Results showed that NPP_pot, HANPP and NPP_eco increased from 2000 to 2010, but at different rates and with different spatial patterns. NPP_gap each year ranged from −9.2% to 13.1% for each site and on average composed 1.2% of the total NPP_pot. NPP_gap was significantly correlated with precipitation, plant biodiversity, plant height and soil properties. NPP_gap increased if either of the previous 2 years had been wet years with relative high precipitation. An increase in the richness of palatable species would lead to a larger NPP_gap through more compensatory growth. The large fluctuation level of NPP_gap reflected the higher stability of vegetation productivity, which is caused by higher plant heights and soil maximum water capacity. This study showed the potential of the HANPP framework in regional assessment of climate and human impacts on net primary productivity. The use of the NPP_gap measure reflects the gap in our knowledge and our ability to accurately estimate the components of NPP.     

Sparing land for nature: exploring the potential impact of changes in agricultural yield on the area needed for crop production

How can rapidly growing food demands be met with least adverse impact on nature? Two very different sorts of suggestions predominate in the literature: wildlife‐friendly farming, whereby on‐farm practices are made as benign to wildlife as possible (at the potential cost of decreasing yields); and land‐sparing, in which farm yields are increased and pressure to convert land for agriculture thereby reduced (at the potential cost of decreasing wildlife populations on farmland). This paper is about one important aspect of the land‐sparing idea – the sensitivity of future requirements for cropland to plausible variation in yield increases, relative to other variables. Focusing on the 23 most energetically important food crops, we use data from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) to project plausible values for 2050 for population size, diet, yield, and trade, and then look at their effect on the area needed to meet demand for the 23 crops, for the developing and developed worlds in turn. Our calculations suggest that across developing countries, the area under those crops will need to increase very considerably by 2050 (by 23% under intermediate projections), and that plausible variation in average yield has as much bearing on the extent of that expansion as does variation in population size or per capita consumption; future cropland area varies far less under foreseeable variation in the net import of food from the rest of the world. By contrast, cropland area in developed countries is likely to decrease slightly by 2050 (by 4% under intermediate projections for those 23 crops), and will be less sensitive to variation in population growth, diet, yield, or trade. Other contentious aspects of the land‐sparing idea require further scrutiny, but these results confirm its potential significance and suggest that conservationists should be as concerned about future agricultural yields as they are about population growth and rising per capita consumption.     

Do increases in agricultural yield spare land for nature?

Feeding a rapidly expanding human population will require a large increase in the supply of agricultural products during the coming decades. This may lead to the transformation of many landscapes from natural vegetation cover to agricultural land use, unless increases in crop yields reduce the need for new farmland. Here, we assess the evidence that past increases in agricultural yield have spared land for wild nature. We investigated the relationship between the change in the combined energy yield of the 23 most energetically important food crops over the period 1979–1999 and the change in per capita cropland area for 124 countries over the same period. Per capita area of the 23 staple crops tended to decrease in developing countries where large yield increases occurred. However, this was counteracted by a tendency for the area used to grow crops other than staples to increase in the countries where staple crop yields increased. There remained a weak tendency in developing countries for the per capita area of all cropland to decline as staple crop yield increased, a pattern that was most evident in developing countries with the highest per capita food supplies. In developed countries, there was no evidence that higher staple crop yields were associated with decreases in per capita cropland area. This may be because high agricultural subsidies in developed countries override any land-sparing pattern that might otherwise occur. Declines in the area of natural forest were smaller in countries where the yield of staple crops increased most, when the negative effects of human population increases on forest area were controlled for. Our results show that land-sparing is a weak process that occurs under a limited set of circumstances, but that it can have positive outcomes for the conservation of wild nature.     

Mechanisms of age‐related changes in forest production: the influence of physiological and successional changes

Net primary production (NPP) declines as forests age, but the causal role of decreased gross primary production (GPP), or increased autotrophic respiration (R_a) is still a matter of debate. This uncertainty complicates predicted responses to future climate, as higher atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations may amplify the carbon (C)‐sink in temperate forests if GPP controls the decline in NPP, but increased temperatures may decrease this C‐sink if R_a controls the NPP decline. We quantified NPP in forests dominated by loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) in North Carolina, USA that varied from 14 to 115 years old. We used a sap‐flow approach to quantify summer canopy photosynthesis by pines and later‐successional hardwood trees, and measured wood CO₂ efflux to investigate age‐related changes in pine R_a. Despite increasing production by later‐successional hardwoods, an 80% decline in pine NPP caused ecosystem NPP to decline with age by ～40%. The decline in pine NPP was explained by reduced stomatal conductance and photosynthesis, supporting the hypothesis that increasing hydraulic limitation and declining GPP drove the age‐related decline of NPP in this species. The difference between GPP and NPP indicated that pine R_a also declined with age; this was corroborated by measurements of reduced stem CO₂ efflux with increasing age. These results indicate that C cycling in these successional temperate forests is controlled by C input from GPP, and elements of global change that increase GPP may increase the C‐sink in aging warm‐temperate pine forests.     

Net primary productivity and rain‐use efficiency as affected by warming,altered precipitation,and clipping in a mixed‐grass prairie

Grassland productivity in response to climate change and land use is a global concern. In order to explore the effects of climate change and land use on net primary productivity (NPP), NPP partitioning [f_BNPP, defined as the fraction of belowground NPP (BNPP) to NPP], and rain‐use efficiency (RUE) of NPP, we conducted a field experiment with warming (+3 °C), altered precipitation (double and half), and annual clipping in a mixed‐grass prairie in Oklahoma, USA since July, 2009. Across the years, warming significantly increased BNPP, f_BNPP, and RUE_BNPP by an average of 11.6%, 2.8%, and 6.6%, respectively. This indicates that BNPP was more sensitive to warming than aboveground NPP (ANPP) since warming did not change ANPP and RUE_ANPP much. Double precipitation stimulated ANPP, BNPP, and NPP but suppressed RUE_ANPP, RUE_BNPP, and RUE_NPP while half precipitation decreased ANPP, BNPP, and NPP but increased RUE_ANPP, RUE_BNPP, and RUE_NPP. Clipping interacted with altered precipitation in impacting RUE_ANPP, RUE_BNPP, and RUE_NPP, suggesting land use could confound the effects of precipitation changes on ecosystem processes. Soil moisture was found to be a main factor in regulating variation in ANPP, BNPP, and NPP while soil temperature was the dominant factor influencing f_BNPP. These findings suggest that BNPP is critical point to future research. Additionally, results from single‐factor manipulative experiments should be treated with caution due to the non‐additive interactive effects of warming with altered precipitation and land use (clipping).     

成都市人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力空间分布差异

生态足迹方法是通过比较人类活动消耗的自然资源与自然生态系统所提供的生态承载力,定量的判断区域的可持续发展状态。采用生态足迹模型对2009—2014年成都市生态足迹、生态承载力状况进行了测算,并结合空间分析揭示了其空间演化规律。结果表明:(1)2009—2014年,各区市县人均生态足迹平均值有着逐年下降的趋势,由2009年的2.759hm~2/人下降至2014年的1.937hm~2/人,基本格局呈现出中间低,西南高,两翼居中的分布特征,高水平人均生态足迹集中分布在西南方向的蒲江县、大邑县,邛崃市;(2)2009—2014年成都市人均承载力呈现出较为稳定且有下降的趋势,由2009年的0.2314hm~2/人下降至2014年的0.2215hm~2/人,其空间分布特征与生态足迹呈现出较好的空间一致性;(3)人均生态亏盈,在时间上表现为逐渐向好,但其本质是趋势为生态赤字愈发严重,空间上呈现出与人均生态承载力情况"高-低,低-高"相反分布的特征,分布呈扩散型,即由中部的五城区向四周扩散,除五城区外,其余地区在研究期间内都为赤字,最严重区域集中在西南方向的蒲江县,最高达到-9.3189hm~2/人,亟需建立有效的生态足迹调控和补充机制。     

A historical meta‐analysis of global terrestrial net primary productivity: are estimates converging?

Net primary productivity (NPP) is one of the most important ecosystem parameters, representing vegetation activity, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystem services. To assess how well the scientific community understands the biospheric function, a historical meta‐analysis was conducted. By surveying the literature from 1862 to 2011, I extracted 251 estimates of total terrestrial NPP at the present time (NPP_T) and calculated their statistical metrics. For all the data, the mean±standard deviation and median were 56.2±14.3 and 56.4 Pg C yr^–1, respectively. Even for estimates published after 2000, a substantial level of uncertainty (coefficient of variation by ±15%) was inevitable. The estimates were categorized on the basis of methodology (i.e., inventory analysis, empirical model, biogeochemical model, dynamic global vegetation model, and remote sensing) to examine the consistency among the statistical metrics of each category. Chronological analysis revealed that the present NPP_T estimates were directed by extensive field surveys in the 1960s and 1970s (e.g., the International Biological Programme). A wide range of uncertainty remains in modern estimates based on advanced biogeochemical and dynamic vegetation models and remote‐sensing techniques. Several critical factors accounting for the estimation uncertainty are discussed. Ancillary analyses were performed to derive additional ecological and human‐related parameters related to NPP. For example, interannual variability, carbon‐use efficiency (a ratio of NPP to gross photosynthesis), human appropriation, and preindustrial NPP_T were assessed. Finally, I discuss the importance of improving NPP_T estimates in the context of current global change studies and integrated carbon cycle research.     

山东省植被NPP时空分布特征及驱动因素分析

为了解区域生态系统植被生产力的分布规律及其变化对区域生态调控的作用,该研究基于MOD17A3的年NPP数据,采用一元线性回归分析法和Pearson相关系数法等,分析了2000—2014年山东省植被NPP的时空格局变化特征及其气候、人为等因素对其的影响。结果表明:(1) 2000—2014年,山东省植被NPP总体呈上升趋势,年均值为442 gC·m^-2·a^-1,年总量平均值为63.16 TgC。山东省植被NPP空间分布具有明显的分异特征,其中年均NPP 300～400 gC·m^-2·a^-1的面积最大,占总面积的52.28%,分布于山东省西部的绝大部分区域。(2)山东省植被NPP年增加速率平均值为3.29 gC·m-2·a^-1,增加区域占山东省植被总面积的92.63%。其中,极显著增加区域占山东省总面积的16.56%,主要分布在烟台市、青岛市、日照市、临沂市、潍坊市、东营市和滨州市;显著减少和极显著减少的区域占山东省总面积的1.33%,零星分布在山东省东南部和北部黄河三角洲地区。(3)植被NPP受气候变化和人类活动等因素的共同影响,气候因素中降雨的影响最大,城市化随着人类活动的频繁逐渐成为植被NPP变化的重要驱动力。     

Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on net primary productivity and net carbon exchange of China's forest ecosystems

Aim We investigated how ozone pollution and climate change/variability have interactively affected net primary productivity (NPP) and net carbon exchange (NCE) across China's forest ecosystem in the past half century. Location Continental China. Methods Using the dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM) in conjunction with 10‐km‐resolution gridded historical data sets (tropospheric O₃ concentrations, climate variability/change, and other environmental factors such as land‐cover/land‐use change (LCLUC), increasing CO₂ and nitrogen deposition), we conducted nine simulation experiments to: (1) investigate the temporo‐spatial patterns of NPP and NCE in China's forest ecosystems from 1961–2005; and (2) quantify the effects of tropospheric O₃ pollution alone or in combination with climate variability and other environmental stresses on forests' NPP and NCE. Results China's forests acted as a carbon sink during 1961–2005 as a result of the combined effects of O₃, climate, CO₂, nitrogen deposition and LCLUC. However, simulated results indicated that elevated O₃ caused a 7.7% decrease in national carbon storage, with O₃‐induced reductions in NCE (Pg C year^?1) ranging from 0.4–43.1% among different forest types. Sensitivity experiments showed that climate change was the dominant factor in controlling changes in temporo‐spatial patterns of annual NPP. The combined negative effects of O₃ pollution and climate change on NPP and NCE could be largely offset by the positive fertilization effects of nitrogen deposition and CO₂. Main conclusions In the future, tropospheric O₃ should be taken into account in order to fully understand the variations of carbon sequestration capacity of forests and assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change and air pollution. Reducing air pollution in China is likely to increase the resilience of forests to climate change. This paper offers the first estimate of how prevention of air pollution can help to increase forest productivity and carbon sequestration in China's forested ecosystems.     

CO2 balance of boreal, temperate, and tropical forests derived from a global database

Terrestrial ecosystems sequester 2.1 Pg of atmospheric carbon annually. A large amount of the terrestrial sink is realized by forests. However, considerable uncertainties remain regarding the fate of this carbon over both short and long timescales. Relevant data to address these uncertainties are being collected at many sites around the world, but syntheses of these data are still sparse. To facilitate future synthesis activities, we have assembled a comprehensive global database for forest ecosystems, which includes carbon budget variables (fluxes and stocks), ecosystem traits (e.g. leaf area index, age), as well as ancillary site information such as management regime, climate, and soil characteristics. This publicly available database can be used to quantify global, regional or biome‐specific carbon budgets; to re‐examine established relationships; to test emerging hypotheses about ecosystem functioning [e.g. a constant net ecosystem production (NEP) to gross primary production (GPP) ratio]; and as benchmarks for model evaluations. In this paper, we present the first analysis of this database. We discuss the climatic influences on GPP, net primary production (NPP) and NEP and present the CO₂ balances for boreal, temperate, and tropical forest biomes based on micrometeorological, ecophysiological, and biometric flux and inventory estimates. Globally, GPP of forests benefited from higher temperatures and precipitation whereas NPP saturated above either a threshold of 1500 mm precipitation or a mean annual temperature of 10 °C. The global pattern in NEP was insensitive to climate and is hypothesized to be mainly determined by nonclimatic conditions such as successional stage, management, site history, and site disturbance. In all biomes, closing the CO₂ balance required the introduction of substantial biome‐specific closure terms. Nonclosure was taken as an indication that respiratory processes, advection, and non‐CO₂ carbon fluxes are not presently being adequately accounted for.     

Effects of logging on carbon dynamics of a jack pine forest in Saskatchewan,Canada

We calculated carbon budgets for a chronosequence of harvested jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) stands (0‐, 5‐, 10‐, and～29‐year‐old) and a～79‐year‐old stand that originated after wildfire. We measured total ecosystem C content (TEC), above‐, and belowground net primary productivity (NPP) for each stand. All values are reported in order for the 0‐, 5‐, 10‐, 29‐, and 79‐year‐old stands, respectively, for May 1999 through April 2000. Total annual NPP (NPP_T) for the stands (Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1±1 SD) was 0.9±0.3, 1.3±0.1, 2.7±0.6, 3.5±0.3, and 1.7±0.4. We correlated periodic soil surface CO₂ fluxes (R_S) with soil temperature to model annual R_S for the stands (Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1±1 SD) as 4.4±0.1, 2.4±0.0, 3.3±0.1, 5.7±0.3, and 3.2±0.2. We estimated net ecosystem productivity (NEP) as NPP_T minus R_H (where R_H was calculated using a Monte Carlo approach as coarse woody debris respiration plus 30–70% of total annual R_S). Excluding C losses during wood processing, NEP (Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1±1 SD) for the stands was estimated to be ?1.9±0.7, ?0.4±0.6, 0.4±0.9, 0.4±1.0, and ?0.2±0.7 (negative values indicate net sources to the atmosphere.) We also calculated NEP values from the changes in TEC among stands. Only the 0‐year‐old stand showed significantly different NEP between the two methods, suggesting a possible mismatch for the chronosequence. The spatial and methodological uncertainties allow us to say little for certain except that the stand becomes a source of C to the atmosphere following logging.     

农田生态系统碳汇研究进展

农田生态系统碳汇包括农作物生物量碳汇和农田土壤碳汇两个方面,中国农田生态系统面积大,碳储量高,是全球生态系统碳循环的重要组成部分。厘清中国农作物生物量和土壤有机碳含量、变化率和影响因素对于解析全球碳循环和维系粮食安全具有重要意义。梳理农田生态系统碳汇相关概念的基础上,比较农田生态系统碳汇研究方法的适用性及存在问题,通过以往研究和SoilGrids250数据研究中国农田生态系统碳库时空分布,并分析农田生态系统碳汇的影响因素及固碳方法。结果表明,中国近30年来农作物生物量呈现增加趋势,农田土壤有机碳含量普遍较低且空间分布不均,0-5cm土壤有机碳含量平均值在16.7 g/kg到86.5 g/kg之间,增加农田土壤有机碳含量是未来中国农田生态系统碳汇的重要方向。肥料和有机残留管理、保护性耕作、种植模式、灌溉等管理措施是增加土壤有机碳汇的主要措施,但农田生态系统碳汇潜力估算仍存在不确定性。最后,从农田生态系统碳汇潜力估算、影响因素厘定和增汇技术研发3个方面提出未来研究方向。研究结果有助于推动农田生态系统碳汇科学研究和技术推广,为实现农田生态系统助力"碳中和"寻求重要路径。     

Quantifying above‐ and belowground biomass carbon loss with forest conversion in tropical lowlands of Sumatra (Indonesia)

Natural forests in South‐East Asia have been extensively converted into other land‐use systems in the past decades and still show high deforestation rates. Historically, lowland forests have been converted into rubber forests, but more recently, the dominant conversion is into oil palm plantations. While it is expected that the large‐scale conversion has strong effects on the carbon cycle, detailed studies quantifying carbon pools and total net primary production (NPP_total) in above‐ and belowground tree biomass in land‐use systems replacing rainforest (incl. oil palm plantations) are rare so far. We measured above‐ and belowground carbon pools in tree biomass together with NPP_total in natural old‐growth forests, ‘jungle rubber’ agroforests under natural tree cover, and rubber and oil palm monocultures in Sumatra. In total, 32 stands (eight plot replicates per land‐use system) were studied in two different regions. Total tree biomass in the natural forest (mean: 384 Mg ha^?1) was more than two times higher than in jungle rubber stands (147 Mg ha^?1) and >four times higher than in monoculture rubber and oil palm plantations (78 and 50 Mg ha^?1). NPP_total was higher in the natural forest (24 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) than in the rubber systems (20 and 15 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1), but was highest in the oil palm system (33 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) due to very high fruit production (15–20 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1). NPP_total was dominated in all systems by aboveground production, but belowground productivity was significantly higher in the natural forest and jungle rubber than in plantations. We conclude that conversion of natural lowland forest into different agricultural systems leads to a strong reduction not only in the biomass carbon pool (up to 166 Mg C ha^?1) but also in carbon sequestration as carbon residence time (i.e. biomass‐C:NPP‐C) was 3–10 times higher in the natural forest than in rubber and oil palm plantations.     

Impacts of land use change due to biofuel crops on carbon balance,bioenergy production,and agricultural yield,in the conterminous United States

Growing concerns about energy and the environment have led to worldwide use of bioenergy. Switching from food crops to biofuel crops is an option to meet the fast‐growing need for biofuel feedstocks. This land use change consequently affects the ecosystem carbon balance. In this study, we used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, to evaluate the impacts of this change on the carbon balance, bioenergy production, and agricultural yield, assuming that several land use change scenarios from corn, soybean, and wheat to biofuel crops of switchgrass and Miscanthus will occur. We found that biofuel crops have much higher net primary production (NPP) than soybean and wheat crops. When food crops from current agricultural lands were changed to different biofuel crops, the national total NPP increased in all cases by a range of 0.14–0.88 Pg C yr^?1, except while switching from corn to switchgrass when a decrease of 14% was observed. Miscanthus is more productive than switchgrass, producing about 2.5 times the NPP of switchgrass. The net carbon loss ranges from 1.0 to 6.3 Tg C yr^?1 if food crops are changed to switchgrass, and from 0.4 to 6.7 Tg C yr^?1 if changed to Miscanthus. The largest loss was observed when soybean crops were replaced with biofuel crops. Soil organic carbon increased significantly when land use changed, reaching 100 Mg C ha^?1 in biofuel crop ecosystems. When switching from food crops to Miscanthus, the per unit area croplands produced a larger amount of ethanol than that of original food crops. In comparison, the land use change from wheat to Miscanthus produced more biomass and sequestrated more carbon. Our study suggests that Miscanthus could better serve as an energy crop than food crops or switchgrass, considering both economic and environmental benefits.     

Pasture intensification is insufficient to relieve pressure on conservation priority areas in open agricultural markets

Agricultural expansion is a leading driver of biodiversity loss across the world, but little is known on how future land‐use change may encroach on remaining natural vegetation. This uncertainty is, in part, due to unknown levels of future agricultural intensification and international trade. Using an economic land‐use model, we assessed potential future losses of natural vegetation with a focus on how these may threaten biodiversity hotspots and intact forest landscapes. We analysed agricultural expansion under proactive and reactive biodiversity protection scenarios, and for different rates of pasture intensification. We found growing food demand to lead to a significant expansion of cropland at the expense of pastures and natural vegetation. In our reference scenario, global cropland area increased by more than 400 Mha between 2015 and 2050, mostly in Africa and Latin America. Grazing intensification was a main determinant of future land‐use change. In Africa, higher rates of pasture intensification resulted in smaller losses of natural vegetation, and reduced pressure on biodiversity hotspots and intact forest landscapes. Investments into raising pasture productivity in conjunction with proactive land‐use planning appear essential in Africa to reduce further losses of areas with high conservation value. In Latin America, in contrast, higher pasture productivity resulted in increased livestock exports, highlighting that unchecked trade can reduce the land savings of pasture intensification. Reactive protection of sensitive areas significantly reduced the conversion of natural ecosystems in Latin America. We conclude that protection strategies need to adapt to region‐specific trade positions. In regions with a high involvement in international trade, area‐based conservation measures should be preferred over strategies aimed at increasing pasture productivity, which by themselves might not be sufficient to protect biodiversity effectively.     

Land Use Change in India (1700–2000) as Examined through the Lens of Human Appropriation of Net Primary Productivity

Land use caused by human socioeconomic activities is a driver of change in the global environment. To understand and quantify land‐use change on Earth's natural systems, interdisciplinary approaches linking biophysical and socioeconomic parameters are required. One approach to understand the degree of terrestrial colonization of the biosphere is using the human appropriation of net primary productivity (HANPP). HANPP is defined as the difference between the net primary productivity (NPP) of potential vegetation and the actual NPP for a given area of land. Here, we use HANPP as a lens to examine land‐use change in India from 1700 to 2007 using a spatially explicit data set that extends over this period. We also used the nongridded, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) data set to calculate HANPP for India from 1961 to 2012 and compared our results. The average potential NPP for India was estimated to be 664 grams of carbon per square meter per year (g C/m²/year). Between 1700 and 2012, the fraction of pastureland and cropland increased from 20% to almost 60%. HANPP as a fraction of the potential NPP increased from 29% to 73% over this period. Calculations of HANPP using the FAO data set yielded an increase from 600 g C/m² to just over 700 g C/m² between 1961 and 2012. We also calculated the embodied HANPP of India by considering imports and exports, but the difference between the two is negligible in comparison to the HANPP of India. We further examined the variation of HANPP with socioeconomic parameters such as the Human Development Index (HDI) and population density. There was a roughly negative trend of HANPP with HDI. HANPP roughly increases with population density and then plateaus above a population density of roughly 200 persons per square kilometer.     

Quantifying global greenhouse gas emissions from land‐use change for crop production

Many assessments of product carbon footprint (PCF) for agricultural products omit emissions arising from land‐use change (LUC). In this study, we developed a framework based on IPCC national greenhouse gas inventory methodologies to assess the impacts of LUC from crop production using oil palm, soybean and oilseed rape as examples. Using ecological zone, climate and soil types from the top 20 producing countries, calculated emissions for transitions from natural vegetation to cropland on mineral soils under typical management ranged from ?4.5 to 29.4 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1 over 20 years for oil palm and 1.2–47.5 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1 over 20 years for soybeans. Oilseed rape showed similar results to soybeans, but with lower maximum values because it is mainly grown in areas with lower C stocks. GHG emissions from other land‐use transitions were between 62% and 95% lower than those from natural vegetation for the arable crops, while conversions to oil palm were a sink for C. LUC emissions were considered on a national basis and also expressed per‐tonne‐of‐oil‐produced. Weighted global averages indicate that, depending on the land‐use transition, oil crop production on newly converted land contributes between ?3.1 and 7.0 t CO₂‐eq t oil production^?1 yr^?1 for palm oil, 11.9–50.6 t CO₂‐eq t oil production^?1 yr^?1 for soybean oil, and 7.7–31.4 t CO₂‐eq t oil production^?1 yr^?1 for rapeseed oil. Assumptions made about crop and LUC distribution within countries contributed up to 66% error around the global averages for natural vegetation conversions. Uncertainty around biomass and soil C stocks were also examined. Finer resolution data and information (particularly on land management and yield) could improve reliability of the estimates but the framework can be used in all global regions and represents an important step forward for including LUC emissions in PCFs.     

Trade‐offs between land and water requirements for large‐scale bioenergy production

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the future energy mix as it can substitute fossil fuels and contribute to climate change mitigation. However, large‐scale bioenergy cultivation may put substantial pressure on land and water resources. While irrigated bioenergy production can reduce the pressure on land due to higher yields, associated irrigation water requirements may lead to degradation of freshwater ecosystems and to conflicts with other potential users. In this article, we investigate the trade‐offs between land and water requirements of large‐scale bioenergy production. To this end, we adopt an exogenous demand trajectory for bioenergy from dedicated energy crops, targeted at limiting greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector to 1100 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent until 2095. We then use the spatially explicit global land‐ and water‐use allocation model MAgPIE to project the implications of this bioenergy target for global land and water resources. We find that producing 300 EJ yr^?1 of bioenergy in 2095 from dedicated bioenergy crops is likely to double agricultural water withdrawals if no explicit water protection policies are implemented. Since current human water withdrawals are dominated by agriculture and already lead to ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss, such a doubling will pose a severe threat to freshwater ecosystems. If irrigated bioenergy production is prohibited to prevent negative impacts of bioenergy cultivation on water resources, bioenergy land requirements for meeting a 300 EJ yr^?1 bioenergy target increase substantially (+ 41%) – mainly at the expense of pasture areas and tropical forests. Thus, avoiding negative environmental impacts of large‐scale bioenergy production will require policies that balance associated water and land requirements.     

Modeled interactive effects of precipitation, temperature, and [CO2] on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zones

Interactive effects of multiple global change factors on ecosystem processes are complex. It is relatively expensive to explore those interactions in manipulative experiments. We conducted a modeling analysis to identify potentially important interactions and to stimulate hypothesis formulation for experimental research. Four models were used to quantify interactive effects of climate warming (T), altered precipitation amounts [doubled (DP) and halved (HP)] and seasonality (SP, moving precipitation in July and August to January and February to create summer drought), and elevated [CO₂] (C) on net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (R_h), net ecosystem production (NEP), transpiration, and runoff. We examined those responses in seven ecosystems, including forests, grasslands, and heathlands in different climate zones. The modeling analysis showed that none of the three‐way interactions among T, C, and altered precipitation was substantial for either carbon or water processes, nor consistent among the seven ecosystems. However, two‐way interactive effects on NPP, R_h, and NEP were generally positive (i.e. amplification of one factor's effect by the other factor) between T and C or between T and DP. A negative interaction (i.e. depression of one factor's effect by the other factor) occurred for simulated NPP between T and HP. The interactive effects on runoff were positive between T and HP. Four pairs of two‐way interactive effects on plant transpiration were positive and two pairs negative. In addition, wet sites generally had smaller relative changes in NPP, R_h, runoff, and transpiration but larger absolute changes in NEP than dry sites in response to the treatments. The modeling results suggest new hypotheses to be tested in multifactor global change experiments. Likewise, more experimental evidence is needed for the further improvement of ecosystem models in order to adequately simulate complex interactive processes.     

基于遥感和过程模型的亚洲东部陆地生态系统初级生产力分布特征

利用美国环境预测中心的再分析气象资料和由GIMMS NDVI 资料生成的叶面积指数对BEPS生态模型进行驱动,模拟分析了2000-2005年亚洲东部地区总初级生产力（GPP）和总净初级生产力（NPP）的时空变化特征.在进行区域模拟计算前,使用15个站点不同生态系统的GPP观测数据及1300个样点的NPP观测数据对模型进行验证.结果表明： BEPS模型能较好地模拟不同生态系统的GPP和NPP变化,模拟的GPP与观测数据之间的R2为0.86～0.99,均方根误差（RMSE）为0.2～1.2 g C·m-2·d-1;BEPS模拟值能够解释78%的年NPP变化,其RMSE为118 g C·m-2·a-1.2000-2005年,亚洲东部地区GPP和NPP总量平均值分别为21.7和10.5 Pg C·a-1.NPP和GPP具有相似的时空变化特征.研究期间,NPP总量的变化范围为10.2～10.7 Pg C·a-1, 变异系数为2.2%.NPP由东南向西北显著减少,高值区〖JP2〗（>1000 g C·m-2·a-1）出现在东南亚海岛国家,我国的西北干旱沙漠地区为低值区（<30 g C·m-2·a-1）,〖JP〗其空间格局主要由气候因子决定.不同国家的人均NPP差异很大,其中,蒙古最高,达70217 kg C·a-1,远高于中国的人均NPP（1921 kg C·a-1）,印度的人均NPP最小,为757 kg C·a-1.