Mismatch managed? Phenological phase extension as a strategy to manage phenological asynchrony in plant–animal mutualisms

Species‐specific shifts in phenology (timing of periodic life cycle events) are occurring with climate change and are already disrupting interactions within and among trophic levels. Phenological phase duration (e.g. beginning to end of flowering) and complementarity (patterns of nonoverlap), and their responses to changing conditions, will be important determinants of species' adaptive capacity to these shifts. Evidence indicates that extension of phenological duration of mutualistic partners could buffer negative impacts that occur with phenological shifts. Therefore, we suggest that techniques to extend the length of phenological duration will contribute to management of systems experiencing phenological asynchrony. Techniques of phenological phase extension discussed include the role of abiotic heterogeneity, genetic and species diversity, and alteration of population timing. We explore these approaches with the goal of creating a framework to build adaptive capacity and address phenological asynchrony in plant–animal mutualisms under climate change.     

Potential decoupling of trends in distribution area and population size of species with climate change

Global climates are changing rapidly and biological responses are becoming increasingly apparent. Here, we use empirical abundance patterns across an altitudinal gradient and predicted altitudinal range shifts to estimate change in total population size relative to distribution area in response to climate warming. Adopting this approach we predict that, for nine out of 12 species of regionally endemic birds, total population size will decline more rapidly than distribution area with increasing temperature. Two species showed comparable loss and one species exhibited a slower decline in population size with change in distribution area. Population size change relative to distribution area was greatest for those species that occurred at highest density in the middle of the gradient. The disproportional loss in population size reported here suggests that extinction risk associated with climate change can be more severe than that expected from decline in distribution area alone. Therefore, if we are to make accurate predictions of the impacts of climate change on the conservation status of individual species, it is crucial that we consider the spatial patterns of abundance within the distribution and not just the overall range of the species.     

Inter- and intraspecific differences in climatically mediated phenological change in coexisting Triturus species

Climate and weather affect phenological events in a wide range of taxa, and future changes might disrupt ecological interactions. Amphibians are particularly sensitive to climate, but few studies have addressed climatically mediated change in the phenology of closely related species or sexes. Here, we test the hypothesis that changes in spring temperatures result in phenological change among Triturus, and we examine inter‐ and intraspecific differences in response. Coexisting populations of Triturus helveticus and Triturus vulgaris at Llysdinam pond in mid‐Wales (53°12′59″N 3°27′3″W) were monitored using pitfall traps along a drift fence during 1981–1987, and again in 1997–2005. Spring temperature over the same period explained up to 74% of between‐year variability in median arrival date, with a significant advance of 2–5 days with every degree centigrade increase. Changes were greater for males than females of both species, and greater for T. helveticus than T. vulgaris within sexes, resulting in an increasing temporal separation between arrivals of male T. helveticus and all other groups. These data illustrate for the first time how climatic change might have differential effects on sympatric species and on the two sexes.     

气候变化对内蒙古草原典型植物物候的影响

自然物候期是气候变化最直观的植物信号记录,自然物候变化是气候与自然环境变化的综合指标。基于1983—2009年内蒙古草甸草原、典型草原和荒漠草原区典型植物马兰草、霸王、贝加尔针茅和羊草生长期物候观测资料和同时段的气象观测资料,利用数理统计等方法,分析了不同草原区典型植物物候期与气候要素间的相互关系,结果表明:(1)1983—2009年内蒙古草原区植物物候期总体呈提前趋势,但地域差异明显,典型草原区植物萌芽返青、开花及黄枯期等物候提早趋势最为明显,说明不同草原区植物物候对气候变暖的区域响应不同。(2)内蒙古草原区植物物候期与气候变化密切相关。春季3—5月累积气温与植物萌芽返青期和开花期呈显著负相关,与日照时数为正相关,降水量对其影响不同草原区差异较大。荒漠草原和典型草原区植物黄枯期早晚与黄枯前1—2个月平均气温呈显著负相关,草甸草原区植物黄枯期与前1—2个月的降水量和日照时数有关,与气温关系不显著。(3)随着气候变暖,马兰草生长期缩短,霸王、贝加尔针茅和羊草生长期延长,其中典型草原区主要植物针茅生长季延长趋势最为明显,荒漠草原次之,草甸草原延长最少。     

Phenological asynchrony between herbivorous insects and their hosts: signal of climate change or pre-existing adaptive strategy?

Climate change alters phenological relations between interacting species. We might expect the historical baseline, or starting-point, for such effects to be precise synchrony between the season at which a consumer most requires food and the time when its resources are most available. We synthesize evidence that synchrony was not the historical condition in two insect–plant interactions involving Edith''s checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha), the winter moth (Operophtera brumata) and their host plants. Initial observations of phenological mismatch in both systems were made prior to the onset of anthropogenically driven climate change. Neither species can detect the phenology of its host plants with precision. In both species, evolution of life history has involved compromise between maximizing fecundity and minimizing mortality, with the outcome being superficially maladaptive strategies in which many, or even most, individuals die of starvation through poor synchrony with their host plants. Where phenological asynchrony or mismatch with resources forms the starting point for effects of anthropogenic global warming, consumers are particularly vulnerable to impacts that exacerbate the mismatch. This vulnerability likely contributed to extinction of a well-studied metapopulation of Edith''s checkerspot, and to the skewed geographical pattern of population extinctions underlying a northward and upward range shift in this species.     

Mid‐Holocene decline in African buffalos inferred from Bayesian coalescent‐based analyses of microsatellites and mitochondrial DNA

Genetic studies concerned with the demographic history of wildlife species can help elucidate the role of climate change and other forces such as human activity in shaping patterns of divergence and distribution. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) declined dramatically during the rinderpest pandemic in the late 1800s, but little is known about the earlier demographic history of the species. We analysed genetic variation at 17 microsatellite loci and a 302‐bp fragment of the mitochondrial DNA control region to infer past demographic changes in buffalo populations from East Africa. Two Bayesian coalescent‐based methods as well as traditional bottleneck tests were applied to infer detailed dynamics in buffalo demographic history. No clear genetic signature of population declines related to the rinderpest pandemic could be detected. However, Bayesian coalescent modelling detected a strong signal of African buffalo population declines in the order of 75–98%, starting in the mid‐Holocene (approximately 3–7000 years ago). The signature of decline was remarkably consistent using two different coalescent‐based methods and two types of molecular markers. Exploratory analyses involving various prior assumptions did not seriously affect the magnitude or timing of the inferred population decline. Climate data show that tropical Africa experienced a pronounced transition to a drier climate approximately 4500 years ago, concurrent with the buffalo decline. We therefore propose that the mid‐Holocene aridification of East Africa caused a major decline in the effective population size of the buffalo, a species reliant on moist savannah habitat for its existence.     

近30年北京自然历的主要物候期、物候季节变化及归因

根据中国物候观测网资料并结合气象观测数据, 重新编制了北京颐和园地区1981-2010年的自然历。通过与原自然历比较, 揭示了北京物候季节变化特征, 分析了1963年以来物候季节变化的可能原因。研究发现: 与原自然历相比, 1981-2010年北京的春、夏季开始时间分别提前了2天和5天, 秋、冬季开始时间分别推迟了1天和4天; 夏、秋季长度分别延长了6天和3天, 春、冬季长度则分别缩短了3天和6天; 各个物候期的平均日期、最早日期、最晚日期在春、夏季以提前为主, 在秋、冬季以推迟为主; 且春、秋、冬季节内部分物候期次序也出现了不同程度的变化。春、夏、冬季开始日期前的气温变化和秋季开始日期前的日照时数变化可能是北京颐和园地区物候季节变化的主要原因; 不同物种、不同物候期对气温变化的响应程度不同, 导致了物候季节内各种物候现象出现的先后顺序发生变化。     

When phenology matters: age–size truncation alters population response to trophic mismatch

Climate-induced shifts in the timing of life-history events are a worldwide phenomenon, and these shifts can de-synchronize species interactions such as predator–prey relationships. In order to understand the ecological implications of altered seasonality, we need to consider how shifts in phenology interact with other agents of environmental change such as exploitation and disease spread, which commonly act to erode the demographic structure of wild populations. Using long-term observational data on the phenology and dynamics of a model predator–prey system (fish and zooplankton in Windermere, UK), we show that age–size truncation of the predator population alters the consequences of phenological mismatch for offspring survival and population abundance. Specifically, age–size truncation reduces intraspecific density regulation due to competition and cannibalism, and thereby amplifies the population sensitivity to climate-induced predator–prey asynchrony, which increases variability in predator abundance. High population variability poses major ecological and economic challenges as it can diminish sustainable harvest rates and increase the risk of population collapse. Our results stress the importance of maintaining within-population age–size diversity in order to buffer populations against phenological asynchrony, and highlight the need to consider interactive effects of environmental impacts if we are to understand and project complex ecological outcomes.     

Contrasting population changes in sympatric penguin species in association with climate warming

Climate warming and associated sea ice reductions in Antarctica have modified habitat conditions for some species. These include the congeneric Adélie, chinstrap and gentoo penguins, which now demonstrate remarkable population responses to regional warming. However, inconsistencies in the direction of population changes between species at different study sites complicate the understanding of causal processes. Here, we show that at the South Orkney Islands where the three species breed sympatrically, the less ice‐adapted gentoo penguins increased significantly in numbers over the last 26 years, whereas chinstrap and Adélie penguins both declined. These trends occurred in parallel with regional long‐term warming and significant reduction in sea ice extent. Periodical warm events, with teleconnections to the tropical Pacific, caused cycles in sea ice leading to reduced prey biomass, and simultaneous interannual population decreases in the three penguin species. With the loss of sea ice, Adélie penguins were less buffered against the environment, their numbers fluctuated greatly and their population response was strong and linear. Chinstrap penguins, considered to be better adapted to ice‐free conditions, were affected by discrete events of locally increased ice cover, but showed less variable, nonlinear responses to sea ice loss. Gentoo penguins were temporarily affected by negative anomalies in regional sea ice, but persistent sea ice reductions were likely to increase their available niche, which is likely to be substantially segregated from that of their more abundant congeners. Thus, the regional consequences of global climate perturbations on the sea ice phenology affect the marine ecosystem, with repercussions for penguin food supply and competition for resources. Ultimately, variability in penguin populations with warming reflects the local balance between penguin adaptation to ice conditions and trophic‐mediated changes cascading from global climate forcing.