Widespread parallel population adaptation to climate variation across a radiation: implications for adaptation to climate change

Global warming will impact species in a number of ways, and it is important to know the extent to which natural populations can adapt to anthropogenic climate change by natural selection. Parallel microevolution within separate species can demonstrate natural selection, but several studies of homoplasy have not yet revealed examples of widespread parallel evolution in a generic radiation. Taking into account primary phylogeographic divisions, we investigate numerous quantitative traits (size, shape, scalation, colour pattern and hue) in anole radiations from the mountainous Lesser Antillean islands. Adaptation to climatic differences can lead to very pronounced differences between spatially close populations with all studied traits showing some evidence of parallel evolution. Traits from shape, scalation, pattern and hue (particularly the latter) show widespread evolutionary parallels within these species in response to altitudinal climate variation greater than extreme anthropogenic climate change predicted for 2080. This gives strong evidence of the ability to adapt to climate variation by natural selection throughout this radiation. As anoles can evolve very rapidly, it suggests anthropogenic climate change is likely to be less of a conservation threat than other factors, such as habitat loss and invasive species, in this, Lesser Antillean, biodiversity hot spot.     

Forest tree species adaptation to climate across biomes: Building on the legacy of ecological genetics to anticipate responses to climate change

Intraspecific variation plays a critical role in extant and future forest responses to climate change. Forest tree species with wide climatic niches rely on the intraspecific variation resulting from genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity to accommodate spatial and temporal climate variability. A centuries-old legacy of forest ecological genetics and provenance trials has provided a strong foundation upon which to continue building on this knowledge, which is critical to maintain climate-adapted forests. Our overall objective is to understand forest trees intraspecific responses to climate across species and biomes, while our specific objectives are to describe ecological genetics models used to build our foundational knowledge, summarize modeling approaches that have expanded the traditional toolset, and extensively review the literature from 1994 to 2021 to highlight the main contributions of this legacy and the new analyzes of provenance trials. We reviewed 103 studies comprising at least three common gardens, which covered 58 forest tree species, 28 of them with range-wide studies. Although studies using provenance trial data cover mostly commercially important forest tree species from temperate and boreal biomes, this synthesis provides a global overview of forest tree species adaptation to climate. We found that evidence for genetic adaptation to local climate is commonly present in the species studied (79%), being more common in conifers (87.5%) than in broadleaf species (67%). In 57% of the species, clines in fitness-related traits were associated with temperature variables, in 14% of the species with precipitation, and in 25% of the species with both. Evidence of adaptation lags was found in 50% of the species with range-wide studies. We conclude that ecological genetics models and analysis of provenance trial data provide excellent insights on intraspecific genetic variation, whereas the role and limits of phenotypic plasticity, which will likely determine the fate of extant forests, is vastly understudied.     

Identifying refugia from climate change using coupled ecological and genetic data in a transitional Mediterranean‐temperate tree species

Populations occurring in areas of overlap between the current and future distribution of a species are particularly important because they can represent “refugia from climate change”. We coupled ecological and range‐wide genetic variation data to detect such areas and to evaluate the impacts of habitat suitability changes on the genetic diversity of the transitional Mediterranean‐temperate tree Fraxinus angustifolia. We sampled and genotyped 38 natural populations comprising 1006 individuals from across Europe. We found the highest genetic diversity in western and northern Mediterranean populations, as well as a significant west to east decline in genetic diversity. Areas of potential refugia that correspond to approximately 70% of the suitable habitat may support the persistence of more than 90% of the total number of alleles in the future. Moreover, based on correlations between Bayesian genetic assignment and climate, climate change may favour the westward spread of the Black Sea gene pool in the long term. Overall, our results suggest that the northerly core areas of the current distribution contain the most important part of the genetic variation for this species and may serve as in situ macrorefugia from ongoing climate change. However, rear‐edge populations of the southern Mediterranean may be exposed to a potential loss of unique genetic diversity owing to habitat suitability changes unless populations can persist in microrefugia that have facilitated such persistence in the past.     

Bud phenology and growth are subject to divergent selection across a latitudinal gradient in Populus angustifolia and impact adaptation across the distributional range and associated arthropods

Temperate forest tree species that span large geographical areas and climatic gradients often have high levels of genetic variation. Such species are ideal for testing how neutral demographic factors and climate‐driven selection structure genetic variation within species, and how this genetic variation can affect ecological communities. Here, we quantified genetic variation in vegetative phenology and growth traits in narrowleaf cottonwood, Populus angustifolia, using three common gardens planted with genotypes originating from source populations spanning the species' range along the Rocky Mountains of North America (ca. 1700 km). We present three main findings. First, we found strong evidence of divergent selection (Q_ST > F_ST) on fall phenology (bud set) with adaptive consequences for frost avoidance. We also found evidence for selection on bud flush duration, tree height, and basal diameter, resulting in population differentiation. Second, we found strong associations with climate variables that were strongly correlated with latitude of origin. More strongly differentiated traits also showed stronger climate correlations, which emphasizes the role that climate has played in divergent selection throughout the range. We found population × garden interaction effects; for some traits, this accounted for more of the variance than either factor alone. Tree height was influenced by the difference in climate of the source and garden locations and declined with increasing transfer distance. Third, growth traits were correlated with dependent arthropod community diversity metrics. Synthesis. Overall, we conclude that climate has influenced genetic variation and structure in phenology and growth traits and leads to local adaptation in P. angustifolia, which can then impact dependent arthropod species. Importantly, relocation of genotypes far northward or southward often resulted in poor growth, likely due to a phenological mismatch with photoperiod, the proximate cue for fall growth cessation. Genotypes moved too far southward suffer from early growth cessation, whereas those moved too far northward are prone to fall frost and winter dieback. In the face of current and forecasted climate change, habitat restoration, forestry, and tree breeding efforts should utilize these findings to better match latitudinal and climatic source environments with management locations for optimal future outcomes.     

Local adaptation and cogradient selection in the alpine plant, Poa hiemata, along a narrow altitudinal gradient

Alpine environments are particularly susceptible to environmental changes associated with global warming but there is potential for alpine plants to adapt to warming if local adaptation occurs and gene flow allows genotypes adapted to low altitudes to colonize higher altitude sites. Here we examine the adaptive potential of a common alpine grass, Poa hiemata, within the restricted alpine habitat of Australian mountains, across a narrow altitudinal gradient replicated in three areas. Grasses at high altitude sites had shorter leaf lengths and larger circumferences than those at lower sites. Transplant experiments with clonal material and plants grown from seed indicated that these differences were partly genetic, with environmental and genetic factors both contributing to the differences between altitudes. Differences in altitudinal forms were also evident in a common garden experiment. Plants showed a home-site advantage in terms of survival. A fitness analysis indicated that at high altitude sites, selection favored plants with short leaves and larger circumferences, whereas these traits were selected in the opposite direction at the low altitude sites. These findings indicate cogradient selection and potential for both plastic and genotypic shifts in response to climate change in P. hiemata.     

Behavioral constraints on local adaptation and counter‐gradient variation: Implications for climate change

Resource allocation to growth, reproduction, and body maintenance varies within species along latitudinal gradients. Two hypotheses explaining this variation are local adaptation and counter‐gradient variation. The local adaptation hypothesis proposes that populations are adapted to local environmental conditions and are therefore less adapted to environmental conditions at other locations. The counter‐gradient variation hypothesis proposes that one population out performs others across an environmental gradient because its source location has greater selective pressure than other locations. Our study had two goals. First, we tested the local adaptation and counter‐gradient variation hypotheses by measuring effects of environmental temperature on phenotypic expression of reproductive traits in the burying beetle, Nicrophorus orbicollis Say, from three populations along a latitudinal gradient in a common garden experimental design. Second, we compared patterns of variation to evaluate whether traits covary or whether local adaptation of traits precludes adaptive responses by others. Across a latitudinal range, N. orbicollis exhibits variation in initiating reproduction and brood sizes. Consistent with local adaptation: (a) beetles were less likely to initiate breeding at extreme temperatures, especially when that temperature represents their source range; (b) once beetles initiate reproduction, source populations produce relatively larger broods at temperatures consistent with their local environment. Consistent with counter‐gradient variation, lower latitude populations were more successful at producing offspring at lower temperatures. We found no evidence for adaptive variation in other adult or offspring performance traits. This suite of traits does not appear to coevolve along the latitudinal gradient. Rather, response to selection to breed within a narrow temperature range may preclude selection on other traits. Our study highlights that N. orbicollis uses temperature as an environmental cue to determine whether to initiate reproduction, providing insight into how behavior is modified to avoid costly reproductive attempts. Furthermore, our results suggest a temperature constraint that shapes reproductive behavior.     

Northward displacement of optimal climate conditions for ecotypes of Eriophorum vaginatum L. across a latitudinal gradient in Alaska

Plants are often genetically specialized as ecotypes attuned to local environmental conditions. When conditions change, the optimal environment may be physically displaced from the local population, unless dispersal or in situ evolution keep pace, resulting in a phenomenon called adaptational lag. Using a 30‐year‐old reciprocal transplant study across a 475 km latitudinal gradient, we tested the adaptational lag hypothesis by measuring both short‐term (tiller population growth rates) and long‐term (17‐year survival) fitness components of Eriophorum vaginatum ecotypes in Alaska, where climate change may have already displaced the optimum. Analyzing the transplant study as a climate transfer experiment, we showed that the climate optimum for plant performance was displaced ca. 140 km north of home sites, although plants were not generally declining in size at home sites. Adaptational lag is expected to be widespread globally for long‐lived, ecotypically specialized plants, with disruptive consequences for communities and ecosystems.     

Evidence for adaptation from standing genetic variation on an antimicrobial peptide gene in the mussel Mytilus edulis

Genome scans of population differentiation identify candidate loci for adaptation but provide little information on how selection has influenced the genetic structure of these loci. Following a genome scan, we investigated the nature of the selection responsible for the outlying differentiation observed between populations of the marine mussel Mytilus edulis at a leucine/arginine polymorphism (L31R) in the antimicrobial peptide MGD2. We analysed DNA sequence polymorphisms, allele frequencies and population differentiation of polymorphisms closely linked to L31R, and pairwise and third‐order linkage disequilibria. An outlying level of population differentiation was observed at L31R only, while no departure from panmixia was observed at linked loci surrounding L31R, as in most of the genome. Selection therefore seems to affect L31R directly. Three hypotheses can explain the lack of differentiation in the chromosomal region close to L31R: (i) hitchhiking has occurred but migration and recombination subsequently erased the signal, (ii) selection was weak enough and recombination strong enough to limit the hitchhiking effect to a very small chromosomal region or (iii) selection acted on a pre‐existing polymorphism (i.e. standing variation) at linkage equilibrium with its background. Linkage equilibrium was observed between L31R and linked polymorphisms in every population analysed, as expected under the three hypotheses. However, linkage disequilibrium was observed in some populations between pairs of loci located upstream and downstream to L31R, generating a complex pattern of third‐order linkage disequilibria which is best explained by the hypothesis of selection on a pre‐existing polymorphism. We hypothesise that selection could be either balanced, maintaining alleles at different frequencies depending on the pathogen community encountered locally by mussels, or intermittent, resulting in sporadic fluctuations in allele frequency.     

Geographic variation in cone volatiles and pollinators in the thermogenic African cycad Encephalartos ghellinckii Lem

• Heat and odour production can have profound effects on pollination in cycads. It is therefore expected that these traits would co‐vary geographically with pollinator assemblages. Such intraspecific variation, may lead to the evolution of pollination ecotypes, which can be an early stage of pollinator‐mediated speciation.
• We measured cone temperatures using miniature temperature data loggers and examined the composition of cone volatile odours using headspace sampling and analysis with gas chromatography‐mass spectrometry in four populations spanning the range of the African cycad Encephalartos ghellinckii. Pollinator assemblages were also investigated in three populations.
• Male and female cones were thermogenic at pollen shed and receptive stages, respectively, but patterns of thermogenesis did not vary among populations. Scent emissions from cones in populations in the Drakensberg Mountains were characterised by cis‐β‐ocimene, β‐myrcene and (3E)‐1,3‐octadiene, while camphene and α‐pinene were characteristic of scent emissions from cones in populations closer to the coast. These differences in volatile blends corresponded with differences in insect assemblages.
• These results confirm intraspecific variation in volatile emissions of E. ghellinckii and support the predictions that intraspecific variation in volatile emissions will be associated with shifts in pollinator assemblages. While further work needs to be done to test for local adaptation in this system, this preliminary evidence is consistent with the formation of pollination ecotypes in the E. ghellinckii species complex.

     

Microanatomical traits track climate gradients for a dominant C4 grass species across the Great Plains,USA

Background and AimsAndropogon gerardii is a highly productive C₄ grass species with a large geographic range throughout the North American Great Plains, a biome characterized by a variable temperate climate. Plant traits are often invoked to explain growth rates and competitive abilities within broad climate gradients. For example, plant competition models typically predict that species with large geographic ranges benefit from variation in traits underlying high growth potential. Here, we examined the relationship between climate variability and leaf-level traits in A. gerardii, emphasizing how leaf-level microanatomical traits serve as a mechanism that may underlie variation in commonly measured traits, such as specific leaf area (SLA).MethodsAndropogon gerardii leaves were collected in August 2017 from Cedar Creek Ecosystem Science Reserve (MN), Konza Prairie Biological Station (KS), Platte River Prairie (NE) and Rocky Mountain Research Station (SD). Leaves from ten individuals from each site were trimmed, stained and prepared for fluorescent confocal microscopy to analyse internal leaf anatomy. Leaf microanatomical data were compared with historical and growing season climate data extracted from PRISM spatial climate models.Key ResultsMicroanatomical traits displayed large variation within and across sites. According to AICc (Akaike’s information criterion adjusted for small sample sizes) selection scores, the interaction of mean precipitation and temperature for the 2017 growing season was the best predictor of variability for the anatomical and morphological traits measured here. Mesophyll area and bundle sheath thickness were directly correlated with mean temperature (annual and growing season). Tissues related to water-use strategies, such as bulliform cell and xylem area, were significantly correlated with one another.ConclusionsThe results indicate that (1) microanatomical trait variation exists within this broadly distributed grass species, (2) microanatomical trait variability appears likely to impact leaf-level carbon and water use strategies, and (3) microanatomical trait values vary across climate gradients, and may underlie variation in traits measured at larger ecological scales.     

Tracking changes in chromosomal arrangements and their genetic content during adaptation

There is considerable evidence for an adaptive role of inversions, but how their genetic content evolves and affects the subsequent evolution of chromosomal polymorphism remains controversial. Here, we track how life‐history traits, chromosomal arrangements and 22 microsatellites, within and outside inversions, change in three replicated populations of Drosophila subobscura for 30 generations of laboratory evolution since founding from the wild. The dynamics of fitness‐related traits indicated adaptation to the new environment concomitant with directional evolution of chromosomal polymorphism. Evidence of selective changes in frequency of inversions was obtained for seven of 23 chromosomal arrangements, corroborating a role for inversions in adaptation. The evolution of linkage disequilibrium between some microsatellites and chromosomes suggested that adaptive changes in arrangements involved changes in their genetic content. Several microsatellite alleles increased in frequency more than expected by drift in targeted inversions in all replicate populations. In particular, there were signs of selection in the O₃₊₄ arrangement favouring a combination of alleles in two loci linked to the inversion and changing along with it, although the lack of linkage disequilibrium between these loci precludes epistatic selection. Seven other alleles increased in frequency within inversions more than expected by drift, but were not in linkage disequilibrium with them. Possibly these alleles were hitchhiking along with alleles under selection that were not specific to those inversions. Overall, the selection detected on the genetic content of inversions, despite limited coverage of the genome, suggests that genetic changes within inversions play an important role in adaptation.     

Using restoration as an experimental framework to test provenancing strategies and climate adaptability

Restoring degraded Australian landscapes through revegetation is a key concern of land holders, NGOs and government agencies. With the advent of climate change, it is increasingly important that revegetation activities take into consideration the species and provenance of plant materials to ensure that environmental plantings will be resilient to future climate conditions. A major strength of the past 30 years restoration programmes is the development of a distributed network of educated and experienced practitioners. We have recently invited stakeholders from among this network to participate in a process to cost‐effectively build Environmental Research Infrastructure – a nationally distributed network of restoration plantings that explore a broad range of research activities including a better understanding of the adaptive responses of different species and provenances. This would also facilitate long‐term monitoring of change and adaptation across Australia, providing a wealth of information to inform future conservation and restoration programmes.     

A genome‐wide search for local adaptation in a terrestrial‐breeding frog reveals vulnerability to climate change

Terrestrial‐breeding amphibians are likely to be vulnerable to warming and drying climates, as their embryos require consistent moisture for successful development. Adaptation to environmental change will depend on sufficient genetic variation existing within or between connected populations. Here, we use Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) data to investigate genome‐wide patterns in genetic diversity, gene flow and local adaptation in a terrestrial‐breeding frog (Pseudophryne guentheri) subject to a rapidly drying climate and recent habitat fragmentation. The species was sampled across 12 central and range‐edge populations (192 samples), and strong genetic structure was apparent, as were high inbreeding coefficients. Populations showed differences in genetic diversity, and one population lost significant genetic diversity in a decade. More than 500 SNP loci were putatively under directional selection, and 413 of these loci were correlated with environmental variables such as temperature, rainfall, evaporation and soil moisture. One locus showed homology to a gene involved in the activation of maturation in Xenopus oocytes, which may facilitate rapid development of embryos in drier climates. The low genetic diversity, strong population structuring and presence of local adaptation revealed in this study shows why management strategies such as targeted gene flow may be necessary to assist isolated populations to adapt to future climates.     

Multilocus patterns of genetic variation across Cryptosporidium species suggest balancing selection at the gp60 locus

Cryptosporidium is an apicomplexan protozoan that lives in most vertebrates, including humans. Its gp60 gene is functionally involved in its attachment to host cells, and its high level of genetic variation has made it the reference marker for sample typing in epidemiological studies. To understand the origin of such high diversity and to determine the extent to which this classification applies to the rest of the genome, we analysed the patterns of variation at gp60 and nine other nuclear loci in isolates of three Cryptosporidium species. Most loci showed low genetic polymorphism (π_S <1%) and similar levels of between‐species divergence. Contrastingly, gp60 exhibited very different characteristics: (i) it was nearly ten times more variable than the other loci; (ii) it displayed a significant excess of polymorphisms relative to between‐species differences in a maximum‐likelihood Hudson–Kreitman–Aguadé test; (iii) gp60 subtypes turned out to be much older than the species they were found in; and (iv) showed a significant excess of polymorphic variants shared across species from random expectations. These observations suggest that this locus evolves under balancing selection and specifically under negative frequency‐dependent selection (FDS). Interestingly, genetic variation at the other loci clusters very well within the groups of isolates defined by gp60 subtypes, which may provide new tools to understand the genome‐wide patterns of genetic variation of the parasite in the wild. These results suggest that gp60 plays an active and essential role in the life cycle of the parasite and that genetic variation at this locus might be essential for the parasite's long‐term success.     

Positive selection on the mitochondrial ATP synthase 6 and the NADH dehydrogenase 2 genes across 22 hare species (genus Lepus)

Amino acid changes in mitochondrial (mt) oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) genes have been suggested as a key adaptation to environmental variation. Here, we analyzed 416 sequences of ATPase synthase 6 (MT‐ATP6) and NADH dehydrogenase 2 (MT‐ND2) in 22 different hare (Lepus) species from across a wide range of habitats and climates. We used site‐ and branch‐based methods to test for positive selection on specific codons and lineages. We found four codons in MT‐ATP6 and five in MT‐ND2 under positive selection, affecting several species lineages. We investigated the association of protein variants at each locus with climate zone, using multinomial generalized linear models (glm), including species, regions, historical introgression events, and the co‐occurring protein variant at the other locus as additional explanatory variables. A significant climate effect as based on the “Köppen climate classification” was observed for MT‐ND2 protein variants as translated from our nucleotide sequences. Moreover, MT‐ND2 protein variants were significantly affected by the co‐occurring MT‐ATP6 protein variant in the same mtDNA molecule. Contrary to the expectation for non‐recombining mitochondrial DNA molecules, the presence of an evolutionarily relatively ancestral protein variant at one locus was associated with a relatively derived protein at the other locus in the same mitochondrial molecule, respectively. The relative evolutionary status of a protein variant was evaluated according to its positions relative to the respective out‐group protein variant in a network analysis of nucleotide sequences. All our results suggest a complex effect of various climatic parameters acting on multiple mtOXPHOS genes in a co‐adaptive way, favoring combinations of ancestral and derived variants.     

Conservation of genetic diversity hotspots of the high‐valued relic yellowhorn (Xanthoceras sorbifolium) considering climate change predictions

Genetic structure and major climate factors may contribute to the distribution of genetic diversity of a highly valued oil tree species Xanthoceras sorbifolium (yellowhorn). Long‐term over utilization along with climate change is affecting the viability of yellowhorn wild populations. To preserve the species known and unknown valuable gene pools, the identification of genetic diversity “hotspots” is a prerequisite for their consideration as in situ conservation high priority. Chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) diversity was high among 38 natural populations (H_d = 0.717, K = 4.616, Tajmas’ D = ?0.22) and characterized by high genetic divergence (F_ST = 0.765) and relatively low gene flow (N_m = 0.03), indicating populations isolation reflecting the species’ habitat fragmentation and inbreeding depression. Six out of the studied 38 populations are defined as genetic diversity “hotspots.” The number and geographic direction of cpDNA mutation steps supported the species southwest to northeast migration history. Climatic factors such as extreme minimum temperature over 30 years indicated that the identified genetic “hotspots” are expected to experience 5°C temperature increase in next following 50 years. The results identified vulnerable genetic diversity “hotspots” and provided fundamental information for the species’ future conservation and breeding activities under the anticipated climate change. More specifically, the role of breeding as a component of a gene resource management strategy aimed at fulfilling both utilization and conservation goals.     

Climate‐driven reduction of genetic variation in plant phenology alters soil communities and nutrient pools

We examined the hypothesis that climate‐driven evolution of plant traits will influence associated soil microbiomes and ecosystem function across the landscape. Using a foundation tree species, Populus angustifolia, observational and common garden approaches, and a base population genetic collection that spans 17 river systems in the western United States, from AZ to MT, we show that (a) as mean annual temperature (MAT) increases, genetic and phenotypic variation for bud break phenology decline; (b) soil microbiomes, soil nitrogen (N), and soil carbon (C) vary in response to MAT and conditioning by trees; and (c) with losses of genetic variation due to warming, population‐level regulation of community and ecosystem functions strengthen. These results demonstrate a relationship between the potential evolutionary response of populations and subsequent shifts in ecosystem function along a large temperature gradient.     

No selection for change in polyandry under experimental evolution

What drives mating system variation is a major question in evolutionary biology. Female multiple mating (polyandry) has diverse evolutionary consequences, and there are many potential benefits and costs of polyandry. However, our understanding of its evolution is biased towards studies enforcing monandry in polyandrous species. What drives and maintains variation in polyandry between individuals, genotypes, populations and species remains poorly understood. Genetic variation in polyandry may be actively maintained by selection, or arise by chance if polyandry is selectively neutral. In Drosophila pseudoobscura, there is genetic variation in polyandry between and within populations. We used isofemale lines to found replicate populations with high or low initial levels of polyandry and tracked polyandry under experimental evolution over seven generations. Polyandry remained relatively stable, reflecting the starting frequencies of the experimental populations. There were no clear fitness differences between high versus low polyandry genotypes, and there was no signature of balancing selection. We confirmed these patterns in direct comparisons between evolved and ancestral females and found no consequences of polyandry for female fecundity. The absence of differential selection even when initiating populations with major differences in polyandry casts some doubt on the importance of polyandry for female fitness.     

Rapid genetic divergence in response to 15 years of simulated climate change

Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long‐term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community‐level responses to long‐term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL.