Potential effects of warming and drying on peatland plant community composition

Boreal peatlands may be particularly vulnerable to climate change, because temperature regimes that currently constrain biological activity in these regions are predicted to increase substantially within the next century. Changes in peatland plant community composition in response to climate change may alter nutrient availability, energy budgets, trace gas fluxes, and carbon storage. We investigated plant community response to warming and drying in a field mesocosm experiment in northern Minnesota, USA. Large intact soil monoliths removed from a bog and a fen received three infrared warming treatments crossed with three water‐table treatments (n = 3) for five years. Foliar cover of each species was estimated annually. In the bog, increases in soil temperature and decreases in water‐table elevation increased cover of shrubs by 50% and decreased cover of graminoids by 50%. The response of shrubs to warming was distinctly species‐specific, and ranged from increases (for Andromeda glaucophylla) to decreases (for Kalmia polifolia). In the fens, changes in plant cover were driven primarily by changes in water‐table elevation, and responses were species‐ and lifeform‐specific: increases in water‐table elevation increased cover of graminoids – in particular Carex lasiocarpa and Carex livida– as well as mosses. In contrast, decreases in water‐table elevation increased cover of shrubs, in particular A. glaucophylla and Chamaedaphne calyculata. The differential and sometimes opposite response of species and lifeforms to the treatments suggest that the structure and function of both bog and fen plant communities will change – in different directions or at different magnitudes – in response to warming and/or changes in water‐table elevation that may accompany regional or global climate change.     

Contrasting acclimation responses to elevated CO2 and warming between an evergreen and a deciduous boreal conifer

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations may warm northern latitudes up to 8°C by the end of the century. Boreal forests play a large role in the global carbon cycle, and the responses of northern trees to climate change will thus impact the trajectory of future CO₂ increases. We grew two North American boreal tree species at a range of future climate conditions to assess how growth and carbon fluxes were altered by high CO₂ and warming. Black spruce (Picea mariana, an evergreen conifer) and tamarack (Larix laricina, a deciduous conifer) were grown under ambient (407 ppm) or elevated CO₂ (750 ppm) and either ambient temperatures, a 4°C warming, or an 8°C warming. In both species, the thermal optimum of net photosynthesis (T_optA) increased and maximum photosynthetic rates declined in warm‐grown seedlings, but the strength of these changes varied between species. Photosynthetic capacity (maximum rates of Rubisco carboxylation, V_cmax, and of electron transport, J_max) was reduced in warm‐grown seedlings, correlating with reductions in leaf N and chlorophyll concentrations. Warming increased the activation energy for V_cmax and J_max (E_aV and E_aJ, respectively) and the thermal optimum for J_max. In both species, the T_optA was positively correlated with both E_aV and E_aJ, but negatively correlated with the ratio of J_max/V_cmax. Respiration acclimated to elevated temperatures, but there were no treatment effects on the Q₁₀ of respiration (the increase in respiration for a 10°C increase in leaf temperature). A warming of 4°C increased biomass in tamarack, while warming reduced biomass in spruce. We show that climate change is likely to negatively affect photosynthesis and growth in black spruce more than in tamarack, and that parameters used to model photosynthesis in dynamic global vegetation models (E_aV and E_aJ) show no response to elevated CO₂.     

The disappearance of relict permafrost in boreal north America: Effects on peatland carbon storage and fluxes

Boreal peatlands in Canada have harbored relict permafrost since the Little Ice Age due to the strong insulating properties of peat. Ongoing climate change has triggered widespread degradation of localized permafrost in peatlands across continental Canada. Here, we explore the influence of differing permafrost regimes (bogs with no surface permafrost, localized permafrost features with surface permafrost, and internal lawns representing areas of permafrost degradation) on rates of peat accumulation at the southernmost limit of permafrost in continental Canada. Net organic matter accumulation generally was greater in unfrozen bogs and internal lawns than in the permafrost landforms, suggesting that surface permafrost inhibits peat accumulation and that degradation of surface permafrost stimulates net carbon storage in peatlands. To determine whether differences in substrate quality across permafrost regimes control trace gas emissions to the atmosphere, we used a reciprocal transplant study to experimentally evaluate environmental versus substrate controls on carbon emissions from bog, internal lawn, and permafrost peat. Emissions of CO₂ were highest from peat incubated in the localized permafrost feature, suggesting that slow organic matter accumulation rates are due, at least in part, to rapid decomposition in surface permafrost peat. Emissions of CH₄ were greatest from peat incubated in the internal lawn, regardless of peat type. Localized permafrost features in peatlands represent relict surface permafrost in disequilibrium with the current climate of boreal North America, and therefore are extremely sensitive to ongoing and future climate change. Our results suggest that the loss of surface permafrost in peatlands increases net carbon storage as peat, though in terms of radiative forcing, increased CH₄ emissions to the atmosphere will partially or even completely offset this enhanced peatland carbon sink for at least 70 years following permafrost degradation.     

The response of soil organic carbon of a rich fen peatland in interior Alaska to projected climate change

It is important to understand the fate of carbon in boreal peatland soils in response to climate change because a substantial change in release of this carbon as CO₂ and CH₄ could influence the climate system. The goal of this research was to synthesize the results of a field water table manipulation experiment conducted in a boreal rich fen into a process‐based model to understand how soil organic carbon (SOC) of the rich fen might respond to projected climate change. This model, the peatland version of the dynamic organic soil Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (peatland DOS‐TEM), was calibrated with data collected during 2005–2011 from the control treatment of a boreal rich fen in the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX). The performance of the model was validated with the experimental data measured from the raised and lowered water‐table treatments of APEX during the same period. The model was then applied to simulate future SOC dynamics of the rich fen control site under various CO₂ emission scenarios. The results across these emissions scenarios suggest that the rate of SOC sequestration in the rich fen will increase between year 2012 and 2061 because the effects of warming increase heterotrophic respiration less than they increase carbon inputs via production. However, after 2061, the rate of SOC sequestration will be weakened and, as a result, the rich fen will likely become a carbon source to the atmosphere between 2062 and 2099. During this period, the effects of projected warming increase respiration so that it is greater than carbon inputs via production. Although changes in precipitation alone had relatively little effect on the dynamics of SOC, changes in precipitation did interact with warming to influence SOC dynamics for some climate scenarios.     

Climate change drives a shift in peatland ecosystem plant community: Implications for ecosystem function and stability

The composition of a peatland plant community has considerable effect on a range of ecosystem functions. Peatland plant community structure is predicted to change under future climate change, making the quantification of the direction and magnitude of this change a research priority. We subjected intact, replicated vegetated poor fen peat monoliths to elevated temperatures, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), and two water table levels in a factorial design to determine the individual and synergistic effects of climate change factors on the poor fen plant community composition. We identify three indicators of a regime shift occurring in our experimental poor fen system under climate change: nonlinear decline of Sphagnum at temperatures 8 °C above ambient conditions, concomitant increases in Carex spp. at temperatures 4 °C above ambient conditions suggesting a weakening of Sphagnum feedbacks on peat accumulation, and increased variance of the plant community composition and pore water pH through time. A temperature increase of +4 °C appeared to be a threshold for increased vascular plant abundance; however the magnitude of change was species dependent. Elevated temperature combined with elevated CO₂ had a synergistic effect on large graminoid species abundance, with a 15 times increase as compared to control conditions. Community analyses suggested that the balance between dominant plant species was tipped from Sphagnum to a graminoid‐dominated system by the combination of climate change factors. Our findings indicate that changes in peatland plant community composition are likely under future climate change conditions, with a demonstrated shift toward a dominance of graminoid species in poor fens.     

Light availability regulates the response of algae and heterotrophic bacteria to elevated nutrient levels and warming in a northern boreal peatland

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Stimulation of both photosynthesis and respiration in response to warmer and drier conditions in a boreal peatland ecosystem

Peatland ecosystems have been consistent carbon (C) sinks for millennia, but it has been predicted that exposure to warmer temperatures and drier conditions associated with climate change will shift the balance between ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration providing a positive feedback to atmospheric CO₂ concentration. Our main objective was to determine the sensitivity of ecosystem photosynthesis, respiration and net ecosystem production (NEP) measured by eddy covariance, to variation in temperature and water table depth associated with interannual shifts in weather during 2004–2009. Our study was conducted in a moderately rich treed fen, the most abundant peatland type in western Canada, in a region (northern Alberta) where peatland ecosystems are a significant landscape component. During the study, the average growing season (May–October) water depth declined approximately 38 cm, and temperature [expressed as cumulative growing degree days (GDD, March–October)] varied approximately 370 GDD. Contrary to previous predictions, both ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration showed similar increases in response to warmer and drier conditions. The ecosystem remained a strong net sink for CO₂ with an average NEP (± SD) of 189 ± 47 g C m^?2 yr^?1. The current net CO₂ uptake rates were much higher than C accumulation in peat determined from analyses of the relationship between peat age and cumulative C stock. The balance between C addition to, and total loss from, the top 0–30 cm depth (peat age range 0–70 years) of shallow peat cores averaged 43 ± 12 g C m^?2 yr^?1. The apparent long‐term average rate of net C accumulation in basal peat samples was 19–24 g C m^?2 yr^?1. The difference between current rates of net C uptake and historical rates of peat accumulation is likely a result of vegetation succession and recent increases in tree establishment and productivity.     

Climate change implications of shifting forest management strategy in a boreal forest ecosystem of Norway

Empirical models alongside remotely sensed and station measured meteorological observations are employed to investigate both the local and global direct climate change impacts of alternative forest management strategies within a boreal ecosystem of eastern Norway. Stand‐level analysis is firstly executed to attribute differences in daily, seasonal, and annual mean surface temperatures to differences in surface intrinsic biophysical properties across conifer, deciduous, and clear‐cut sites. Relative to a conifer site, a slight local cooling of ?0.13 °C at a deciduous site and ?0.25 °C at a clear‐cut site were observed over a 6‐year period, which were mostly attributed to a higher albedo throughout the year. When monthly mean albedo trajectories over the entire managed forest landscape were taken into consideration, we found that strategies promoting natural regeneration of coniferous sites with native deciduous species led to substantial global direct climate cooling benefits relative to those maintaining current silviculture regimes – despite predicted long‐term regional warming feedbacks and a reduced albedo in spring and autumn months. The magnitude and duration of the cooling benefit depended largely on whether management strategies jointly promoted an enhanced material supply over business‐as‐usual levels. Expressed in terms of an equivalent CO₂ emission pulse at the start of the simulation, the net climate response at the end of the 21st century spanned ?8 to ?159 Tg‐CO₂‐eq., depending on whether near‐term harvest levels increased or followed current trends, respectively. This magnitude equates to approximately ?20 to ?300% of Norway's annual domestic (production) emission impact. Our analysis supports the assertion that a carbon‐only focus in the design and implementation of forest management policy in boreal and other climatically similar regions can be counterproductive – and at best – suboptimal if boreal forests are to be used as a tool to mitigate global warming.     

Interactive biotic and abiotic regulators of soil carbon cycling: evidence from controlled climate experiments on peatland and boreal soils

Partially decomposed plant and animal remains have been accumulating in organic soils (i.e. >40% C content) for millennia, making them the largest terrestrial carbon store. There is growing concern that, in a warming world, soil biotic processing will accelerate and release greenhouse gases that further exacerbate climate change. However, the magnitude of this response remains uncertain as the constraints are abiotic, biotic and interactive. Here, we examined the influence of resource quality and biological activity on the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration under different soil moisture regimes. Organic soils were sampled from 13 boreal and peatland ecosystems located in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Finland and Sweden, representing a natural resource quality range of C, N and P. They were incubated at four temperatures (4, 10, 15 and 20 °C) at either 60% or 100% water holding capacity (WHC). Our results showed that chemical and biological properties play an important role in determining soil respiration responses to temperature and moisture changes. High soil C : P and C : N ratios were symptomatic of slow C turnover and long‐term C accumulation. In boreal soils, low bacterial to fungal ratios were related to greater temperature sensitivity of respiration, which was amplified in drier conditions. This contrasted with peatland soils which were dominated by bacterial communities and enchytraeid grazing, resulting in a more rapid C turnover under warmer and wetter conditions. The unexpected acceleration of C mineralization under high moisture contents was possibly linked to the primarily role of fermented organic matter, instead of oxygen, in mediating microbial decomposition. We conclude that to improve C model simulations of soil respiration, a better resolution of the interactions occurring between climate, resource quality and the decomposer community will be required.     

Direct and indirect climate change effects on carbon dioxide fluxes in a thawing boreal forest–wetland landscape

In the sporadic permafrost zone of northwestern Canada, boreal forest carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes will be altered directly by climate change through changing meteorological forcing and indirectly through changes in landscape functioning associated with thaw‐induced collapse‐scar bog (‘wetland’) expansion. However, their combined effect on landscape‐scale net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE_LAND), resulting from changing gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), remains unknown. Here, we quantify indirect land cover change impacts on NEE_LAND and direct climate change impacts on modeled temperature‐ and light‐limited NEE_LAND of a boreal forest–wetland landscape. Using nested eddy covariance flux towers, we find both GPP and ER to be larger at the landscape compared to the wetland level. However, annual NEE_LAND (?20 g C m^?2) and wetland NEE (?24 g C m^?2) were similar, suggesting negligible wetland expansion effects on NEE_LAND. In contrast, we find non‐negligible direct climate change impacts when modeling NEE_LAND using projected air temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. At the end of the 21st century, modeled GPP mainly increases in spring and fall due to reduced temperature limitation, but becomes more frequently light‐limited in fall. In a warmer climate, ER increases year‐round in the absence of moisture stress resulting in net CO₂ uptake increases in the shoulder seasons and decreases during the summer. Annually, landscape net CO₂ uptake is projected to decline by 25 ± 14 g C m^?2 for a moderate and 103 ± 38 g C m^?2 for a high warming scenario, potentially reversing recently observed positive net CO₂ uptake trends across the boreal biome. Thus, even without moisture stress, net CO₂ uptake of boreal forest–wetland landscapes may decline, and ultimately, these landscapes may turn into net CO₂ sources under continued anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. We conclude that NEE_LAND changes are more likely to be driven by direct climate change rather than by indirect land cover change impacts.     

Plant functional traits mediate reproductive phenology and success in response to experimental warming and snow addition in Tibet

Global climate change is predicted to have large impacts on the phenology and reproduction of alpine plants, which will have important implications for plant demography and community interactions, trophic dynamics, ecosystem energy balance, and human livelihoods. In this article we report results of a 3‐year, fully factorial experimental study exploring how warming, snow addition, and their combination affect reproductive phenology, effort, and success of four alpine plant species belonging to three different life forms in a semiarid, alpine meadow ecosystem on the central Tibetan Plateau. Our results indicate that warming and snow addition change reproductive phenology and success, but responses are not uniform across species. Moreover, traits associated with resource acquisition, such as rooting depth and life history (early vs. late flowering), mediate plant phenology, and reproductive responses to changing climatic conditions. Specifically, we found that warming delayed the reproductive phenology and decreased number of inflorescences of Kobresia pygmaea C. B. Clarke, a shallow‐rooted, early‐flowering plant, which may be mainly constrained by upper‐soil moisture availability. Because K. pygmaea is the dominant species in the alpine meadow ecosystem, these results may have important implications for ecosystem dynamics and for pastoralists and wildlife in the region.     

Deep peat warming increases surface methane and carbon dioxide emissions in a black spruce‐dominated ombrotrophic bog

Boreal peatlands contain approximately 500 Pg carbon (C) in the soil, emit globally significant quantities of methane (CH₄), and are highly sensitive to climate change. Warming associated with global climate change is likely to increase the rate of the temperature‐sensitive processes that decompose stored organic carbon and release carbon dioxide (CO₂) and CH₄. Variation in the temperature sensitivity of CO₂ and CH₄ production and increased peat aerobicity due to enhanced growing‐season evapotranspiration may alter the nature of peatland trace gas emission. As CH₄ is a powerful greenhouse gas with 34 times the warming potential of CO₂, it is critical to understand how factors associated with global change will influence surface CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes. Here, we leverage the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) climate change manipulation experiment to understand the impact of a 0–9°C gradient in deep belowground warming (“Deep Peat Heat”, DPH) on peat surface CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes. We find that DPH treatments increased both CO₂ and CH₄ emission. Methane production was more sensitive to warming than CO₂ production, decreasing the C‐CO₂:C‐CH₄ of the respired carbon. Methane production is dominated by hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis but deep peat warming increased the δ¹³C of CH₄ suggesting an increasing contribution of acetoclastic methanogenesis to total CH₄ production with warming. Although the total quantity of C emitted from the SPRUCE Bog as CH₄ is <2%, CH₄ represents >50% of seasonal C emissions in the highest‐warming treatments when adjusted for CO₂ equivalents on a 100‐year timescale. These results suggest that warming in boreal regions may increase CH₄ emissions from peatlands and result in a positive feedback to ongoing warming.     

The phylogenetic composition and structure of soil microbial communities shifts in response to elevated carbon dioxide

One of the major factors associated with global change is the ever-increasing concentration of atmospheric CO₂. Although the stimulating effects of elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) on plant growth and primary productivity have been established, its impacts on the diversity and function of soil microbial communities are poorly understood. In this study, phylogenetic microarrays (PhyloChip) were used to comprehensively survey the richness, composition and structure of soil microbial communities in a grassland experiment subjected to two CO₂ conditions (ambient, 368 p.p.m., versus elevated, 560 p.p.m.) for 10 years. The richness based on the detected number of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) significantly decreased under eCO₂. PhyloChip detected 2269 OTUs derived from 45 phyla (including two from Archaea), 55 classes, 99 orders, 164 families and 190 subfamilies. Also, the signal intensity of five phyla (Crenarchaeota, Chloroflexi, OP10, OP9/JS1, Verrucomicrobia) significantly decreased at eCO₂, and such significant effects of eCO₂ on microbial composition were also observed at the class or lower taxonomic levels for most abundant phyla, such as Proteobacteria, Firmicutes, Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes and Acidobacteria, suggesting a shift in microbial community composition at eCO₂. Additionally, statistical analyses showed that the overall taxonomic structure of soil microbial communities was altered at eCO₂. Mantel tests indicated that such changes in species richness, composition and structure of soil microbial communities were closely correlated with soil and plant properties. This study provides insights into our understanding of shifts in the richness, composition and structure of soil microbial communities under eCO₂ and environmental factors shaping the microbial community structure.     

Experimental warming alters the community composition,diversity, and N2 fixation activity of peat moss (Sphagnum fallax) microbiomes

Sphagnum‐dominated peatlands comprise a globally important pool of soil carbon (C) and are vulnerable to climate change. While peat mosses of the genus Sphagnum are known to harbor diverse microbial communities that mediate C and nitrogen (N) cycling in peatlands, the effects of climate change on Sphagnum microbiome composition and functioning are largely unknown. We investigated the impacts of experimental whole‐ecosystem warming on the Sphagnum moss microbiome, focusing on N₂ fixing microorganisms (diazotrophs). To characterize the microbiome response to warming, we performed next‐generation sequencing of small subunit (SSU) rRNA and nitrogenase (nifH) gene amplicons and quantified rates of N₂ fixation activity in Sphagnum fallax individuals sampled from experimental enclosures over 2 years in a northern Minnesota, USA bog. The taxonomic diversity of overall microbial communities and diazotroph communities, as well as N₂ fixation rates, decreased with warming (p < 0.05). Following warming, diazotrophs shifted from a mixed community of Nostocales (Cyanobacteria) and Rhizobiales (Alphaproteobacteria) to predominance of Nostocales. Microbiome community composition differed between years, with some diazotroph populations persisting while others declined in relative abundance in warmed plots in the second year. Our results demonstrate that warming substantially alters the community composition, diversity, and N₂ fixation activity of peat moss microbiomes, which may ultimately impact host fitness, ecosystem productivity, and C storage potential in peatlands.     

Patterns of univariate and multivariate plasticity to elevated carbon dioxide in six European populations of Arabidopsis thaliana

The impact of elevated carbon dioxide on plants is a growing concern in evolutionary ecology and global change biology. Characterizing patterns of phenotypic integration and multivariate plasticity to elevated carbon dioxide can provide insights into ecological and evolutionary dynamics in future human‐altered environments. Here, we examined univariate and multivariate responses to carbon enrichment in six functional traits among six European accessions of Arabidopsis thaliana. We detected phenotypic plasticity in both univariate and multivariate phenotypes, but did not find significant variation in plasticity (genotype by environment interactions) within or among accessions. Eigenvector, eigenvalue variance, and common principal components analyses showed that elevated carbon dioxide altered patterns of trait covariance, reduced the strength of phenotypic integration, and decreased population‐level differentiation in the multivariate phenotype. Our data suggest that future carbon dioxide conditions may influence evolutionary dynamics in natural populations of A. thaliana.     

Climate change effects on carbon and nitrogen mineralization in peatlands through changes in soil quality

Climate change will directly affect carbon and nitrogen mineralization through changes in temperature and soil moisture, but it may also indirectly affect mineralization rates through changes in soil quality. We used an experimental mesocosm system to examine the effects of 6‐year manipulations of infrared loading (warming) and water‐table level on the potential anaerobic nitrogen and carbon (as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) production) mineralization potentials of bog and fen peat over 11 weeks under uniform anaerobic conditions. To investigate the response of the dominant methanogenic pathways, we also analyzed the stable isotope composition of CH₄ produced in the samples. Bog peat from the highest water‐table treatment produced more CO₂ than bog peat from drier mesocosms. Fen peat from the highest water‐table treatment produced the most CH₄. Cumulative nitrogen mineralization was lowest in bog peat from the warmest treatment and lowest in the fen peat from the highest water‐table treatment. As all samples were incubated under constant conditions, observed differences in mineralization patterns reflect changes in soil quality in response to climate treatments. The largest treatment effects on carbon mineralization as CO₂ occurred early in the incubations and were ameliorated over time, suggesting that the climate treatments changed the size and/or quality of a small labile carbon pool. CH₄ from the fen peat appeared to be predominately from the acetoclastic pathway, while in the bog peat a strong CH₄ oxidation signal was present despite the anaerobic conditions of our incubations. There was no evidence that changes in soil quality have lead to differences in the dominant methanogenic pathways in these systems. Overall, our results suggest that even relatively short‐term changes in climate can alter the quality of peat in bogs and fens, which could alter the response of peatland carbon and nitrogen mineralization to future climate change.     

Accumulation of soil carbon under elevated CO2 unaffected by warming and drought

Elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change may substantially alter soil carbon (C) dynamics, which in turn may impact future climate through feedback cycles. However, only very few field experiments worldwide have combined elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) with both warming and changes in precipitation in order to study the potential combined effects of changes in these fundamental drivers of C cycling in ecosystems. We exposed a temperate heath/grassland to eCO₂, warming, and drought, in all combinations for 8 years. At the end of the study, soil C stocks were on average 0.927 kg C/m² higher across all treatment combinations with eCO₂ compared to ambient CO₂ treatments (equal to an increase of 0.120 ± 0.043 kg C m^?2 year^?1), and showed no sign of slowed accumulation over time. However, if observed pretreatment differences in soil C are taken into account, the annual rate of increase caused by eCO₂ may be as high as 0.177 ± 0.070 kg C m^?2 year^?1. Furthermore, the response to eCO₂ was not affected by simultaneous exposure to warming and drought. The robust increase in soil C under eCO₂ observed here, even when combined with other climate change factors, suggests that there is continued and strong potential for enhanced soil carbon sequestration in some ecosystems to mitigate increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations under future climate conditions. The feedback between land C and climate remains one of the largest sources of uncertainty in future climate projections, yet experimental data under simulated future climate, and especially including combined changes, are still scarce. Globally coordinated and distributed experiments with long‐term measurements of changes in soil C in response to the three major climate change‐related global changes, eCO₂, warming, and changes in precipitation patterns, are, therefore, urgently needed.     

The likely impact of elevated [CO2], nitrogen deposition, increased temperature and management on carbon sequestration in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems: a literature review

Temperate and boreal forest ecosystems contain a large part of the carbon stored on land, in the form of both biomass and soil organic matter. Increasing atmospheric [CO2], increasing temperature, elevated nitrogen deposition and intensified management will change this C store. Well documented single-factor responses of net primary production are: higher photosynthetic rate (the main [CO2] response); increasing length of growing season (the main temperature response); and higher leaf-area index (the main N deposition and partly [CO2] response). Soil organic matter will increase with increasing litter input, although priming may decrease the soil C stock initially, but litter quality effects should be minimal (response to [CO2], N deposition, and temperature); will decrease because of increasing temperature; and will increase because of retardation of decomposition with N deposition, although the rate of decomposition of high-quality litter can be increased and that of low-quality litter decreased. Single-factor responses can be misleading because of interactions between factors, in particular those between N and other factors, and indirect effects such as increased N availability from temperature-induced decomposition. In the long term the strength of feedbacks, for example the increasing demand for N from increased growth, will dominate over short-term responses to single factors. However, management has considerable potential for controlling the C store.