Effects of global climate change on marine and estuarine fishes and fisheries

Global climate change is impacting and will continue to impact marine and estuarine fish and fisheries. Data trends show global climate change effects ranging from increased oxygen consumption rates in fishes, to changes in foraging and migrational patterns in polar seas, to fish community changes in bleached tropical coral reefs. Projections of future conditions portend further impacts on the distribution and abundance of fishes associated with relatively small temperature changes. Changing fish distributions and abundances will undoubtedly affect communities of humans who harvest these stocks. Coastal-based harvesters (subsistence, commercial, recreational) may be impacted (negatively or positively) by changes in fish stocks due to climate change. Furthermore, marine protected area boundaries, low-lying island countries dependent on coastal economies, and disease incidence (in aquatic organisms and humans) are also affected by a relatively small increase in temperature and sea level. Our interpretations of evidence include many uncertainties about the future of affected fish species and their harvesters. Therefore, there is a need to research the physiology and ecology of marine and estuarine fishes, particularly in the tropics where comparatively little research has been conducted. As a broader and deeper information base accumulates, researchers will be able to make more accurate predictions and forge relevant solutions.     

Growth and temperature relationships for juvenile fish species in seagrass beds: implications of climate change

The effect of water temperature on growth responses of three common seagrass fish species that co‐occur as juveniles in the estuaries in Sydney (34° S) but have differing latitudinal ranges was measured: Pelates sexlineatus (subtropical to warm temperate: 27–35° S), Centropogon australis (primarily subtropical to warm temperate: 24–37° S) and Acanthaluteres spilomelanurus (warm to cool temperate: below 32° S). Replicate individuals of each species were acclimated over a 7 day period in one of three temperature treatments (control: 22° C, low: 18° C and high: 26° C) and their somatic growth was assessed within treatments over 10 days. Growth of all three species was affected by water temperature, with the highest growth of both northern species (P. sexlineatus and C. australis) at 22 and 26° C, whereas growth of the southern ranging species (A. spilomelanurus) was reduced at temperatures higher than 18° C, suggesting that predicted increase in estuarine water temperatures through climate change may change relative performance of seagrass fish assemblages.     

Multi-scale recruitment patterns and effects on local population size of a temperate reef fish

Recruitment of the temperate reef fish Coris julis was studied across the Azores Archipelago (central North Atlantic), over four consecutive recruitment seasons and at three spatial scales: between islands (separated by 100s of km), sites within islands (separated by 10s of km) and transects within sites (separated by 10s of m). At the largest scale ( i.e . between islands) spatial recruitment patterns were highly variable, suggesting the influence of stochastic processes. Recruitment was spatially consistent within islands, even though magnitude was unpredictable between years, indicating that processes at meso-scales are probably more deterministic. Recruits settled randomly at the transect scale, probably reflecting habitat homogeneity. It was proposed that large and island-scale patterns reflect larval availability, driven by physical and biological processes occurring in the plankton. No evidence was found for a density-dependent relationship between newly settled and 2 week settled C. julis nor between cumulative recruitment and young-of-the-year. It appears that adult density is limited by larval supply (pre-settlement regulation) at low recruitment sites, and determined by post-settlement, density-dependent processes at high recruitment sites. This work is one of few to investigate multiple spatial and temporal scales of recruitment for a coastal fish species inhabiting isolated, temperate oceanic islands and hence, provides a novel comparison to the many studies of recruitment on coral reefs and other, more connected systems.     

Water temperature and fish growth: otoliths predict growth patterns of a marine fish in a changing climate

Ecological modeling shows that even small, gradual changes in body size in a fish population can have large effects on natural mortality, biomass, and catch. However, efforts to model the impact of climate change on fish growth have been hampered by a lack of long‐term (multidecadal) data needed to understand the effects of temperature on growth rates in natural environments. We used a combination of dendrochronology techniques and additive mixed‐effects modeling to examine the sensitivity of growth in a long‐lived (up to 70 years), endemic marine fish, the western blue groper (Achoerodus gouldii), to changes in water temperature. A multi‐decadal biochronology (1952–2003) of growth was constructed from the otoliths of 56 fish collected off the southwestern coast of Western Australia, and we tested for correlations between the mean index chronology and a range of potential environmental drivers. The chronology was significantly correlated with sea surface temperature in the region, but common variance among individuals was low. This suggests that this species has been relatively insensitive to past variations in climate. Growth increment and age data were also used in an additive mixed model to predict otolith growth and body size later this century. Although growth was relatively insensitive to changes in temperature, the model results suggested that a fish aged 20 in 2099 would have an otolith about 10% larger and a body size about 5% larger than a fish aged 20 in 1977. Our study shows that species or populations regarded as relatively insensitive to climate change could still undergo significant changes in growth rate and body size that are likely to have important effects on the productivity and yield of fisheries.     

Effects of pair migratory behavior on breeding phenology and success in a partially migratory shorebird population

In migratory systems, variation in individual phenology can arise through differences in individual migratory behaviors, and this may be particularly apparent in partial migrant systems, where migrant and resident individuals are present within the same population. Links between breeding phenology and migratory behavior or success are generally investigated at the individual level. However, for breeding phenology in particular, the migratory behaviors of each member of the pair may need to be considered simultaneously, as breeding phenology will likely be constrained by timing of the pair member that arrives last, and carryover effects on breeding success may vary depending on whether pair members share the same migratory behavior or not. We used tracking of marked individuals and monitoring of breeding success from a partially migrant population of Eurasian oystercatchers (Haematopus ostralegus) breeding in Iceland to test whether (a) breeding phenology varied with pair migratory behavior; (b) within‐pair consistency in timing of laying differed among pair migratory behaviors; and (c) reproductive performance varied with pair migratory behavior, timing of laying, and year. We found that annual variation in timing of laying differed among pair migratory behaviors, with resident pairs being more consistent than migrant and mixed pairs, and migrant/mixed pairs breeding earlier than residents in most years but later in one (unusually cold) year. Pairs that laid early were more likely to replace their clutch after nest loss, had higher productivity and higher fledging success, independent of pair migratory behavior. Our study suggests that the links between individual migratory behavior and reproductive success can vary over time and, to a much lesser extent, with mate migratory behavior and can be mediated by differences in laying dates. Understanding these cascading effects of pair phenology on breeding success is likely to be key to predicting the impact of changing environmental conditions on migratory species.     

Climate change alters the reproductive phenology and investment of a lacustrine fish,the three‐spine stickleback

High‐latitude lakes are particularly sensitive to the effects of global climate change, demonstrating earlier ice breakup, longer ice‐free seasons, and increased water temperatures. Such physical changes have implications for diverse life‐history traits in taxa across entire lake food webs. Here, we use a five‐decade time series from an Alaskan lake to explore effects of climate change on growth and reproduction of a widely distributed lacustrine fish, the three‐spine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). We used multivariate autoregressive state‐space (MARSS) models to describe trends in the mean length for multiple size classes and to explore the influence of physical (date of ice breakup, surface water temperature) and biological (density of con‐ and heterospecifics) factors. As predicted, mean size of age 1 and older fish at the end of the growing season increased across years with earlier ice breakup and warmer temperatures. In contrast, mean size of age 0 fish decreased over time. Overall, lower fish density and warmer water temperatures were associated with larger size for all cohorts. Earlier ice breakup was associated with larger size for age 1 and older fish but, paradoxically, with smaller size of age 0 fish. To explore this latter result, we used mixing models on age 0 size distributions, which revealed an additional cohort in years with early ice breakup, lowering the mean size of age 0 fish. Moreover, early ice breakup was associated with earlier breeding, evidenced by earlier capture of age 0 fish. Our results suggest that early ice breakup altered both timing and frequency of breeding; three‐spine stickleback spawned earlier and more often in response to earlier ice breakup date. While previous studies have shown the influence of changing conditions in northern lakes on breeding timing and growth, this is the first to document increased breeding frequency, highlighting another pathway by which climate change can alter the ecology of northern lakes.     

Ecological costs of climate change on marine predator–prey population distributions by 2050

Identifying and quantifying the effects of climate change that alter the habitat overlap of marine predators and their prey population distributions is of great importance for the sustainable management of populations. This study uses Bayesian joint models with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) to predict future spatial density distributions in the form of common spatial trends of predator–prey overlap in 2050 under the “business‐as‐usual, worst‐case” climate change scenario. This was done for combinations of six mobile marine predator species (gray seal, harbor seal, harbor porpoise, common guillemot, black‐legged kittiwake, and northern gannet) and two of their common prey species (herring and sandeels). A range of five explanatory variables that cover both physical and biological aspects of critical marine habitat were used as follows: bottom temperature, stratification, depth‐averaged speed, net primary production, and maximum subsurface chlorophyll. Four different methods were explored to quantify relative ecological cost/benefits of climate change to the common spatial trends of predator–prey density distributions. All but one future joint model showed significant decreases in overall spatial percentage change. The most dramatic loss in predator–prey population overlap was shown by harbor seals with large declines in the common spatial trend for both prey species. On the positive side, both gannets and guillemots are projected to have localized regions with increased overlap with sandeels. Most joint predator–prey models showed large changes in centroid location, however the direction of change in centroids was not simply northwards, but mostly ranged from northwest to northeast. This approach can be very useful in informing the design of spatial management policies under climate change by using the potential differences in ecological costs to weigh up the trade‐offs in decisions involving issues of large‐scale spatial use of our oceans, such as marine protected areas, commercial fishing, and large‐scale marine renewable developments.     

The interacting effects of food,spring temperature,and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird

Although long‐distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double‐brooded long‐distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark–recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late‐season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black‐throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species.     

Effects of food supplementation on home-range size, reproductive success, productivity and recruitment in a small population of Iberian lynx

In a conservation context, food supplementation is a management tool used to reverse the decline of food-limited populations by means of positive changes in behaviour and fitness that may be reflected in population parameters. The critically endangered Iberian lynx Lynx pardinus has suffered a dramatic decline primarily because of the severe drop of its main prey, the European wild rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus . To reverse this situation, a food supplementation programme has been implemented in Doñana, south-west Spain, since 2002. In this study, we assess the utility of providing artificial food to reduce home-range (HR) size, and to increase productivity, survival and recruitment in a scenario of low lynx density, as compared with reference data from the same population in the absence of extra food. Food supplementation produced a significant contraction of core areas, but not of complete lynx HRs. We did not detect any significant change in productivity or dispersal rates, but supplementation could have helped transient adult lynx to settle down. The positive effects of food supplementation may have been partly countered by factors such as inbreeding, Allee effects and disease outbreaks, whose effects may have been exacerbated in this small lynx population. Food supplementation, however, proved useful to retain individuals, to keep range sizes within their normal range of values, thus maintaining spatial organization, and to allow lynx reproduction and kitten survival in areas with very low prey density. Therefore, we recommend keeping an extensive and intensive supplementary feeding programme until the density of wild rabbits will enable the viability of this endangered lynx population.     

Linking population genetics and tree height growth models to predict impacts of climate change on forest production

Changes to forest growth models used widely in global change research and sustainable forest management are needed to account for expected climate change impacts. We provide a new approach that dynamically merges height–age functions prevalent in forest growth models with transfer functions prevalent in population adaptation research to better represent changes to forest productivity as climates gradually change. Our simulations with data from an extensive provenance test of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) in British Columbia, Canada, suggest that climate change will reduce production in lodgepole pine forests established today by at least 7–13% at the end of this century – considerably less than most predictions based solely on transfer or response functions, which do not integrate impacts as climate gradually changes. This work illustrates the need for forest productivity models to consider the changing climate in which a population is growing relative to the static climate of its origin. It also demonstrates the value of long‐term provenance trials in assessing the dynamic impact of climate change on forest productivity, and serves as an example of how provenance trials may be exploited in other forest productivity models or other research fields to assess plant responses to climate.     

Effects of historic and projected climate change on the range and impacts of an emerging wildlife disease

The global trend of increasing environmental temperatures is often predicted to result in more severe disease epidemics. However, unambiguous evidence that temperature is a driver of epidemics is largely lacking, because it is demanding to demonstrate its role among the complex interactions between hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. Here, we apply a three‐pronged approach to understand the effects of temperature on ranavirus epidemics in UK common frogs, combining in vitro, in vivo, and field studies. Each approach suggests that higher temperatures drive increasing severity of epidemics. In wild populations, ranavirosis incidents were more frequent and more severe at higher temperatures, and their frequency increased through a period of historic warming in the 1990s. Laboratory experiments using cell culture and whole animal models showed that higher temperature increased ranavirus propagation, disease incidence, and mortality rate. These results, combined with climate projections, predict severe ranavirosis outbreaks will occur over wider areas and an extended season, possibly affecting larval recruitment. Since ranaviruses affect a variety of ectothermic hosts (amphibians, reptiles, and fish), wider ecological damage could occur. Our three complementary lines of evidence present a clear case for direct environmental modulation of these epidemics and suggest management options to protect species from disease.     

The contrasting effects of short‐ and long‐term habitat drainage on the population dynamics of freshwater turtles in a human‐dominated landscape

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Effects of Habitat Connectivity on the Abundance and Species Richness of Coral Reef Fishes: Comparison of an Experimental Habitat Established at a Rocky Reef Flat and at a Sandy Sea Bottom

Coral reef fish assemblages are widely recognized for the coexistence of numerous species, which are likely governed by both coral diversity and substratum complexity. However, since coral reefs provide diverse habitats due to their physical structure and different spatial arrangements of coral, findings obtained from an isolated habitat cannot necessarily be applied to fish assemblages in other habitats (e.g. continuous habitats). The aim of this study, therefore, was to determine by a field experiment whether habitat connectivity (spatial arrangement of coral colonies) affects abundance and species richness of fishes in an Okinawan coral reef. The experiment consisted of transplanted branching coral colonies at a 4m×8m quadrat at both a rocky reef flat and sandy sea bottom. Generally, the abundance of fishes was greater at the sandy sea bottom, especially for three species of pomacentrids, one species of labrids, one species of chaetodontids and two species of apogonids. Species–area curves showed that the species richness of fishes was significantly greater in the quadrat at the sandy sea bottom at 3, 6 and 9 months after the start of the experiment. The rate of increase in abundance of fishes per area was significantly greater in the quadrat at the sandy sea bottom over the study period. The results of rarefaction analyses showed that the rate of increase in species richness per abundance was significantly higher in the quadrat at the sandy sea bottom in the juvenile settlement period, indicating that the magnitude of dominance by particular species was greater at the sandy sea bottom habitat. Our findings suggest that habitat connectivity affects the abundance and species richness of coral reef fishes, i.e. the isolated habitat was significantly more attractive for fishes than was the continuous habitat. Our findings also suggest that the main ecological factors responsible for organization of fish assemblage at a continuous habitat and at an isolated habitat are different.     

Effects of warming on predator–prey interactions – a resource‐based approach and a theoretical synthesis

We theoretically explore consequences of warming for predator–prey dynamics, broadening previous approaches in three ways: we include beyond‐optimal temperatures, predators may have a type III functional response, and prey carrying capacity depends on explicitly modelled resources. Several robust patterns arise. The relationship between prey carrying capacity and temperature can range from near‐independence to monotonically declining/increasing to hump‐shaped. Predators persist in a U‐shaped region in resource supply (=enrichment)‐temperature space. Type II responses yield stable persistence in a U‐shaped band inside this region, giving way to limit cycles with enrichment at all temperatures. In contrast, type III responses convey stability at intermediate temperatures and confine cycles to low and high temperatures. Warming‐induced state shifts can be predicted from system trajectories crossing stability and persistence boundaries in enrichment‐temperature space. Results of earlier studies with more restricted assumptions map onto this graph as special cases. Our approach thus provides a unifying framework for understanding warming effects on trophic dynamics.