Strengthened currents override the effect of warming on lobster larval dispersal and survival

Human‐induced climate change is projected to increase ocean temperature and modify circulation patterns, with potential widespread implications for the transport and survival of planktonic larvae of marine organisms. Circulation affects the dispersal of larvae, whereas temperature impacts larval development and survival. However, the combined effect of changes in circulation and temperature on larval dispersal and survival has rarely been studied in a future climate scenario. Such understanding is crucial to predict future species distributions, anticipate ecosystem shifts and design effective management strategies. We simulate contemporary (1990s) and future (2060s) dispersal of lobster larvae using an eddy‐resolving ocean model in south‐eastern Australia, a region of rapid ocean warming. Here we show that the effects of changes in circulation and temperature can counter each other: ocean warming favours the survival of lobster larvae, whereas a strengthened western boundary current diminishes the supply of larvae to the coast by restricting cross‐current larval dispersal. Furthermore, we find that changes in circulation have a stronger effect on connectivity patterns of lobster larvae along south‐eastern Australia than ocean warming in the future climate so that the supply of larvae to the coast reduces by ~4% and the settlement peak shifts poleward by ~270 km in the model simulation. Thus, ocean circulation may be one of the dominant factors contributing to climate‐induced changes of species ranges.     

Intertidal community responses to field‐based experimental warming

As the climate warms, there is little doubt that ecosystems of the future will look different from those we see today. However, community responses to warming in the field are poorly understood. We examined the effects of field‐based warming on intertidal communities in the Salish Sea, which is a regional thermal ‘hot spot’ and therefore a model system for studying thermally stressed communities. We manipulated temperature at three tidal heights by deploying black‐ and white‐bordered settlement plates. Black plates increased in situ substratum temperature by an average of 2.6°C (maximum temperature, 40.9°C). Barnacles fared poorly on black plates in all zones. When overall thermal stress was highest (summer in the high intertidal zone) herbivores were absent. In lower tidal zones, herbivores were abundant on white plates but were scarce on black plates. The total percent cover of algae was unaffected by the temperature treatment, despite the fact that macroalgae were expected to be the least thermally tolerant functional group. However, we did find that ephemeral green algae exhibited a delay in phenology on black plates. We also found that species richness declined and invertebrate assemblage structure was altered due to warming. Results from this year long experiment suggest that communities in thermally stressful habitats respond to warming via the interplay between species‐specific thermal responses and secondary adaptive strategies such as behavioral microhabitat selection. Declines in diversity and changes in the invertebrate assemblage were due to the decline of local thermally‐stressed species and the lack of replacement by warm‐adapted species. Given the low variation in the species pool along the northeast Pacific coastline, the arrival of warm‐adapted species to the Salish Sea may not occur over relevant time scales, leaving local communities depauperate.     

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well‐connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean‐warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph‐theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance‐weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better‐connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation‐only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity.     

Biophysical Constraints on Optimal Patch Lengths for Settlement of a Reef-Building Bivalve

Reef-building species form discrete patches atop soft sediments, and reef restoration often involves depositing solid material as a substrate for larval settlement and growth. There have been few theoretical efforts to optimize the physical characteristics of a restored reef patch to achieve high recruitment rates. The delivery of competent larvae to a reef patch is influenced by larval behavior and by physical habitat characteristics such as substrate roughness, patch length, current speed, and water depth. We used a spatial model, the “hitting-distance” model, to identify habitat characteristics that will jointly maximize both the settlement probability and the density of recruits on an oyster reef (Crassostrea virginica). Modeled larval behaviors were based on laboratory observations and included turbulence-induced diving, turbulence-induced passive sinking, and neutral buoyancy. Profiles of currents and turbulence were based on velocity profiles measured in coastal Virginia over four different substrates: natural oyster reefs, mud, and deposited oyster and whelk shell. Settlement probabilities were higher on larger patches, whereas average settler densities were higher on smaller patches. Larvae settled most successfully and had the smallest optimal patch length when diving over rough substrates in shallow water. Water depth was the greatest source of variability, followed by larval behavior, substrate roughness, and tidal current speed. This result suggests that the best way to maximize settlement on restored reefs is to construct patches of optimal length for the water depth, whereas substrate type is less important than expected. Although physical patch characteristics are easy to measure, uncertainty about larval behavior remains an obstacle for predicting settlement patterns. The mechanistic approach presented here could be combined with a spatially explicit metapopulation model to optimize the arrangement of reef patches in an estuary or region for greater sustainability of restored habitats.     

Climate‐change refugia: shading reef corals by turbidity

Coral reefs have recently experienced an unprecedented decline as the world's oceans continue to warm. Yet global climate models reveal a heterogeneously warming ocean, which has initiated a search for refuges, where corals may survive in the near future. We hypothesized that some turbid nearshore environments may act as climate‐change refuges, shading corals from the harmful interaction between high sea‐surface temperatures and high irradiance. We took a hierarchical Bayesian approach to determine the expected distribution of 12 coral species in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, between the latitudes 37°N and 37°S, under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (W m^?2) by 2100. The turbid nearshore refuges identified in this study were located between latitudes 20–30°N and 15–25°S, where there was a strong coupling between turbidity and tidal fluctuations. Our model predicts that turbidity will mitigate high temperature bleaching for 9% of shallow reef habitat (to 30 m depth) – habitat that was previously considered inhospitable under ocean warming. Our model also predicted that turbidity will protect some coral species more than others from climate‐change‐associated thermal stress. We also identified locations where consistently high turbidity will likely reduce irradiance to <250 μmol m^?2 s^?1, and predict that 16% of reef‐coral habitat ≤30 m will preclude coral growth and reef development. Thus, protecting the turbid nearshore refuges identified in this study, particularly in the northwestern Hawaiian Islands, the northern Philippines, the Ryukyu Islands (Japan), eastern Vietnam, western and eastern Australia, New Caledonia, the northern Red Sea, and the Arabian Gulf, should become part of a judicious global strategy for reef‐coral persistence under climate change.     

Topographically controlled thermal‐habitat differentiation buffers alpine plant diversity against climate warming

Aim We aim to: (1) explore thermal habitat preferences in alpine plant species across mosaics of topographically controlled micro‐habitats; (2) test the predictive value of so‐called ‘indicator values’; and (3) quantify the shift in micro‐habitat conditions under the influence of climate warming. Location Alpine vegetation 2200–2800 m a.s.l., Swiss central Alps. Methods High‐resolution infra‐red thermometry and large numbers of small data loggers were used to assess the spatial and temporal variation of plant‐surface and ground temperatures as well as snow‐melt patterns for 889 plots distributed across three alpine slopes of contrasting exposure. These environmental data were then correlated with Landolt indicator values for temperature preferences of different plant species and vegetation units. By simulating a uniform 2 K warming we estimated the changes in abundance of micro‐habitat temperatures within the study area. Results Within the study area we observed a substantial variation between micro‐habitats in seasonal mean soil temperature (ΔT = 7.2 K), surface temperature (ΔT = 10.5 K) and season length (>32 days). Plant species with low indicator values for temperature (plants commonly found in cool habitats) grew in significantly colder micro‐habitats than plants with higher indicator values found on the same slope. A 2 K warming will lead to the loss of the coldest habitats (3% of current area), 75% of the current thermal micro‐habitats will be reduced in abundance (crowding effect) and 22% will become more abundant. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate that the topographically induced mosaics of micro‐climatic conditions in an alpine landscape are associated with local plant species distribution. Semi‐quantitative plant species indicator values based on expert knowledge and aggregated to community means match measured thermal habitat conditions. Metre‐scale thermal contrasts significantly exceed IPCC warming projections for the next 100 years. The data presented here thus indicate a great risk of overestimating alpine habitat losses in isotherm‐based model scenarios. While all but the species depending on the very coldest micro‐habitats will find thermally suitable ‘escape’ habitats within short distances, there will be enhanced competition for those cooler places on a given slope in an alpine climate that is 2 K warmer. Yet, due to their topographic variability, alpine landscapes are likely to be safer places for most species than lowland terrain in a warming world.     

Habitat continuity and stepping‐stone oceanographic distances explain population genetic connectivity of the brown alga Cystoseira amentacea

Effective predictive and management approaches for species occurring in a metapopulation structure require good understanding of interpopulation connectivity. In this study, we ask whether population genetic structure of marine species with fragmented distributions can be predicted by stepping‐stone oceanographic transport and habitat continuity, using as model an ecosystem‐structuring brown alga, Cystoseira amentacea var. stricta. To answer this question, we analysed the genetic structure and estimated the connectivity of populations along discontinuous rocky habitat patches in southern Italy, using microsatellite markers at multiple scales. In addition, we modelled the effect of rocky habitat continuity and ocean circulation on gene flow by simulating Lagrangian particle dispersal based on ocean surface currents allowing multigenerational stepping‐stone dynamics. Populations were highly differentiated, at scales from few metres up to thousands of kilometres. The best possible model fit to explain the genetic results combined current direction, rocky habitat extension and distance along the coast among rocky sites. We conclude that a combination of variable suitable habitat and oceanographic transport is a useful predictor of genetic structure. This relationship provides insight into the mechanisms of dispersal and the role of life‐history traits. Our results highlight the importance of spatially explicit modelling of stepping‐stone dynamics and oceanographic directional transport coupled with habitat suitability, to better describe and predict marine population structure and differentiation. This study also suggests the appropriate spatial scales for the conservation, restoration and management of species that are increasingly affected by habitat modifications.     

Empty habitat in coastal sediments for populations of macrozoobenthos

Species with wide dispersal are expected to have little empty habitat. This was tested by analysing habitat use in the Wadden Sea near the island of Sylt (North Sea). Sampling covered 222 intertidal sites spread across the K?nigshafen tidal flats (4.5 km², mapping approach conducted once) and 270 subtidal sites along 12 km of a tidal channel system (stratified random sampling in spring and autumn). For any single species, 'suitable habitat' was extrapolated from the ranges of water depth and sediment composition present at the ten sites with the highest frequency or abundance of the species. On average, macrobenthic species actually used less than half of the suitable sites within the scale of local populations; this was far less than expected from a lognormal distribution. In the subtidal, abundance of most species changed between the two sampling seasons. A 50% increase in overall abundance was accompanied by a decrease in empty habitat of only about 25%. Thus, a doubling of abundances would not fill the empty space but just of half of it. The polychaete Scoloplos armiger was an exception in occupying almost all of its suitable habitat in the intertidal and subtidal sediments. A distinct patch of high species richness occurred where flood waters persistently form a large gyre which may enhance larval settlement. We suggest that limitations to larval settlement and/or juvenile survival primarily cause the extent of the observed habitat emptiness. Electronic Publication     

From pole to pole: the potential for the Arctic seastar Asterias amurensis to invade a warming Southern Ocean

Due to climatic warming, Asterias amurensis, a keystone boreal predatory seastar that has established extensive invasive populations in southern Australia, is a potential high‐risk invader of the sub‐Antarctic and Antarctic. To assess the potential range expansion of A. amurensis to the Southern Ocean as it warms, we investigated the bioclimatic envelope of the adult and larval life stages. We analysed the distribution of adult A. amurensis with respect to present‐day and future climate scenarios using habitat temperature data to construct species distribution models (SDMs). To integrate the physiological response of the dispersive phase, we determined the thermal envelope of larval development to assess their performance in present‐day and future thermal regimes and the potential for success of A. amurensis in poleward latitudes. The SDM indicated that the thermal ‘niche’ of the adult stage correlates with a 0–17 °C and 1–22.5 °C range, in winter and summer, respectively. As the ocean warms, the range of A. amurensis in Australia will contract, while more southern latitudes will have conditions favourable for range expansion. Successful fertilization occurred from 3 to 23.8 °C. By day 12, development to the early larval stage was successful from 5.5 to 18 °C. Although embryos were able to reach the blastula stage at 2 °C, they had arrested development and high mortality. The optimal thermal range for survival of pelagic stages was 3.5–19.2 °C with a lower and upper critical limit of 2.6 and 20.3 °C, respectively. Our data predict that A. amurensis faces demise in its current invasive range while more favourable conditions at higher latitudes would facilitate invasion of both larval and adult stages to the Southern Ocean. Our results show that vigilance is needed to reduce the risk that this ecologically important Arctic carnivore may invade the Southern Ocean and Antarctica.     

Climate change and coral reef connectivity

This review assesses and predicts the impacts that rapid climate change will have on population connectivity in coral reef ecosystems, using fishes as a model group. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to accelerate larval development, potentially leading to reduced pelagic durations and earlier reef-seeking behaviour. Depending on the spatial arrangement of reefs, the expectation would be a reduction in dispersal distances and the spatial scale of connectivity. Small increase in temperature might enhance the number of larvae surviving the pelagic phase, but larger increases are likely to reduce reproductive output and increase larval mortality. Changes to ocean currents could alter the dynamics of larval supply and changes to planktonic productivity could affect how many larvae survive the pelagic stage and their condition at settlement; however, these patterns are likely to vary greatly from place-to-place and projections of how oceanographic features will change in the future lack sufficient certainty and resolution to make robust predictions. Connectivity could also be compromised by the increased fragmentation of reef habitat due to the effects of coral bleaching and ocean acidification. Changes to the spatial and temporal scales of connectivity have implications for the management of coral reef ecosystems, especially the design and placement of marine-protected areas. The size and spacing of protected areas may need to be strategically adjusted if reserve networks are to retain their efficacy in the future.     

Microhabitat and rhythmic behavior of tiger beetle Callytron yuasai okinawense larvae in a mangrove forest in Japan

Mangrove forests are regularly flooded by tides at intervals of approximately 12.4 h (tidal rhythm). Larvae of the tiger beetle Callytron yuasai okinawense in a mangrove forest made shallow burrows in mounds up to 1 m in height constructed by the mud lobster Thalassina anomala. No larval burrows were observed on the forest floor, which was very muddy even during low tide. Some larvae plugged the burrow openings before they were submerged at high tide. The mean interval between consecutive burrow plugging events was 12.37 h, which is similar to the period of tidal cycles. Nine out of 30 larvae plugged the burrow openings even when the burrows did not become submerged. Plugging behavior may be governed by an endogenous biological clock, or may be a response to exogenous information about tidal level (e.g. moisture seeping through the ground).     

Dynamic response in the larval geoduck (Panopea generosa) proteome to elevated pCO2

Pacific geoducks (Panopea generosa) are clams found along the northeast Pacific coast where they are important components of coastal and estuarine ecosystems and a major aquaculture product. The Pacific coastline, however, is also experiencing rapidly changing ocean habitat, including significant reductions in pH. To better understand the physiological impact of ocean acidification on geoduck clams, we characterized for the first time the proteomic profile of this bivalve during larval development and compared it to that of larvae exposed to low pH conditions. Geoduck larvae were reared at pH 7.5 (ambient) or pH 7.1 in a commercial shellfish hatchery from day 6 to day 19 postfertilization and sampled at six time points for an in‐depth proteomics analysis using high‐resolution data‐dependent analysis. Larvae reared at low pH were smaller than those reared at ambient pH, especially in the prodissoconch II phase of development, and displayed a delay in their competency for settlement. Proteomic profiles revealed that metabolic, cell cycle, and protein turnover pathways differed between the two pH and suggested that differing phenotypic outcomes between pH 7.5 and 7.1 are likely due to environmental disruptions to the timing of physiological events. In summary, ocean acidification results in elevated energetic demand on geoduck larvae, resulting in delayed development and disruptions to normal molecular developmental pathways, such as carbohydrate metabolism, cell growth, and protein synthesis.     

Spatial distributions of Southern Ocean mesozooplankton communities have been resilient to long‐term surface warming

The biogeographic response of oceanic planktonic communities to climatic change has a large influence on the future stability of marine food webs and the functioning of global biogeochemical cycles. Temperature plays a pivotal role in determining the distribution of these communities and ocean warming has the potential to cause major distributional shifts, particularly in polar regions where the thermal envelope is narrow. We considered the impact of long‐term ocean warming on the spatial distribution of Southern Ocean mesozooplankton communities through examining plankton abundance in relation to sea surface temperature between two distinct periods, separated by around 60 years. Analyses considered 16 dominant mesozooplankton taxa (in terms of biomass and abundance) in the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, from net samples and in situ temperature records collected during the Discovery Investigations (1926–1938) and contemporary campaigns (1996–2013). Sea surface temperature was found to have increased significantly by 0.74°C between the two eras. The corresponding sea surface temperature at which community abundance peaked was also significantly higher in contemporary times, by 0.98°C. Spatial projections indicated that the geographical location of community peak abundance had remained the same between the two eras despite the poleward advance of sea surface isotherms. If the community had remained within the same thermal envelope as in the 1920s–1930s, community peak abundance would be 500 km further south in the contemporary era. Studies in the northern hemisphere have found that dominant taxa, such as calanoid copepods, have conserved their thermal niches and tracked surface isotherms polewards. The fact that this has not occurred in the Southern Ocean suggests that other selective pressures, particularly food availability and the properties of underlying water masses, place greater constraints on spatial distributions in this region. It further demonstrates that this community is thermally resilient to present levels of sea surface warming.     

Temperature and CO2 additively regulate physiology,morphology and genomic responses of larval sea urchins,Strongylocentrotus purpuratus

Ocean warming and ocean acidification, both consequences of anthropogenic production of CO₂, will combine to influence the physiological performance of many species in the marine environment. In this study, we used an integrative approach to forecast the impact of future ocean conditions on larval purple sea urchins (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) from the northeast Pacific Ocean. In laboratory experiments that simulated ocean warming and ocean acidification, we examined larval development, skeletal growth, metabolism and patterns of gene expression using an orthogonal comparison of two temperature (13°C and 18°C) and pCO₂ (400 and 1100 μatm) conditions. Simultaneous exposure to increased temperature and pCO₂ significantly reduced larval metabolism and triggered a widespread downregulation of histone encoding genes. pCO₂ but not temperature impaired skeletal growth and reduced the expression of a major spicule matrix protein, suggesting that skeletal growth will not be further inhibited by ocean warming. Importantly, shifts in skeletal growth were not associated with developmental delay. Collectively, our results indicate that global change variables will have additive effects that exceed thresholds for optimized physiological performance in this keystone marine species.     

Bottom‐up and top‐down effects of browning and warming on shallow lake food webs

Productivity and trophic structure of aquatic ecosystems result from a complex interplay of bottom‐up and top‐down forces that operate across benthic and pelagic food web compartments. Projected global changes urge the question how this interplay will be affected by browning (increasing input of terrestrial dissolved organic matter), nutrient enrichment and warming. We explored this with a process‐based model of a shallow lake food web consisting of benthic and pelagic components (abiotic resources, primary producers, grazers, carnivores), and compared model expectations with the results of a browning and warming experiment in nutrient‐poor ponds harboring a boreal lake community. Under low nutrient conditions, the model makes three major predictions. (a) Browning reduces light and increases nutrient supply; this decreases benthic and increases pelagic production, gradually shifting productivity from the benthic to the pelagic habitat. (b) Because of active habitat choice, fish exert top‐down control on grazers and benefit primary producers primarily in the more productive of the two habitats. (c) Warming relaxes top‐down control of grazers by fish and decreases primary producer biomass, but effects of warming are generally small compared to effects of browning and nutrient supply. Experimental results were consistent with most model predictions for browning: light penetration, benthic algal production, and zoobenthos biomass decreased, and pelagic nutrients and pelagic algal production increased with browning. Also consistent with expectations, warming had negative effects on benthic and pelagic algal biomass and weak effects on algal production and zoobenthos and zooplankton biomass. Inconsistent with expectations, browning had no effect on zooplankton and warming effects on fish depended on browning. The model is applicable also to nutrient‐rich systems, and we propose that it is a useful tool for the exploration of the consequences of different climate change scenarios for productivity and food web dynamics in shallow lakes, the worldwide most common lake type.     

Early response of the platypus to climate warming

Combining a climatic envelope modelling technique with more than two centuries (1800–2009) of distribution records has revealed the effects of a changing climate on the egg‐laying monotreme, the platypus, Ornithorhynchus anatinus. We show that the main factor associated with platypus occurrence switched from aquatic habitat availability (estimated by rainfall) to thermal tolerances (estimated by annual maximum temperature) in the 1960s. This correlates directly with the change in the annual maximum temperature anomaly from cooler to warmer conditions in southeastern Australia. Modelling of platypus habitat under emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1 and B2) revealed large decreases (>30%) in thermally suitable habitat by 2070. This reduction, compounded by increasing demands for water for agriculture and potable use, suggests that there is real cause for concern over the future status of this species, and highlights the need for restoration of thermal refugia within the platypus’ modelled range.     

Larvae of the coral eating crown‐of‐thorns starfish,Acanthaster planci in a warmer‐high CO2 ocean

Outbreaks of crown‐of‐thorns starfish (COTS), Acanthaster planci, contribute to major declines of coral reef ecosystems throughout the Indo‐Pacific. As the oceans warm and decrease in pH due to increased anthropogenic CO₂ production_, coral reefs are also susceptible to bleaching, disease and reduced calcification. The impacts of ocean acidification and warming may be exacerbated by COTS predation, but it is not known how this major predator will fare in a changing ocean. Because larval success is a key driver of population outbreaks, we investigated the sensitivities of larval A. planci to increased temperature (2–4 °C above ambient) and acidification (0.3–0.5 pH units below ambient) in flow‐through cross‐factorial experiments (3 temperature × 3 pH/pCO₂ levels). There was no effect of increased temperature or acidification on fertilization or very early development. Larvae reared in the optimal temperature (28 °C) were the largest across all pH treatments. Development to advanced larva was negatively affected by the high temperature treatment (30 °C) and by both experimental pH levels (pH 7.6, 7.8). Thus, planktonic life stages of A. planci may be negatively impacted by near‐future global change. Increased temperature and reduced pH had an additive negative effect on reducing larval size. The 30 °C treatment exceeded larval tolerance regardless of pH. As 30 °C sea surface temperatures may become the norm in low latitude tropical regions, poleward migration of A. planci may be expected as they follow optimal isotherms. In the absence of acclimation or adaptation, declines in low latitude populations may occur. Poleward migration will be facilitated by strong western boundary currents, with possible negative flow‐on effects on high latitude coral reefs. The contrasting responses of the larvae of A. planci and those of its coral prey to ocean acidification and warming are considered in context with potential future change in tropical reef ecosystems.     

51 Characterization of the northwestern gulf of Mexico macroalgae

One of the most commonly predicted effects of global ocean warming on marine communities is a poleward shift in the distribution of species with an associated replacement of cold‐water species by warm‐water species. Such predictions are imprecise and based largely on broad correlations in uncontrolled studies that examine changes in species composition and abundance relative to seawater temperature. Before‐After‐Control‐Impact (BACI) analyses of the effects of a large thermal discharge shows that an induced 3.4 deg. C rise in seawater temperature over 10 years along 2 km of rocky coastline resulted in significant community‐wide changes in 150 species of algae and invertebrates relative to controls. Contrary to predictions from biogeographic models, there was no trend towards warm‐water species with southern geographic affinities replacing cold‐species with northern affinities. Instead, communities were greatly altered in apparently cascading responses to changes in abundance of several habitat‐forming taxa, particularly subtidal kelps (e.g. Pterygophora californica) and intertidal foliose red algae (e.g. Mazzaella flaccida). Many temperature sensitive algae decreased greatly in abundance, whereas many invertebrate grazers increased. The results indicate that the responses of temperate reef communities to ocean warming can be strongly coupled to direct effects on habitat‐forming taxa and indirect effects operating through ecological interactions. Given our understanding of temperate reef ecology and its local variability, the results also suggest that accurate predictions of the effects of global ocean warming will be difficult to make.     

Global warming threatens the persistence of Mediterranean brown trout

Current climate change exacerbates the environmental restrictions on temperate species inhabiting low latitude edges of their geographical ranges. We examined how temperature variations due to current and future climate change are likely to affect populations’ persistence of stream‐dwelling brown trout Salmo trutta at the vulnerable southern periphery of its range. Analysis of 33 years of air temperature data (1975–2007) by time‐series models indicated a significant upward trend and a pronounced shift in air temperature around 1986‐1987. This warming is associated with an ongoing population decline of brown trout, most likely caused by a loss of suitable thermal habitat in lower latitudes since the 1980s. Population decrease may not be attributed to physical habitat modification or angler pressure, as carrying capacity remained stable and populations were not overexploited. We developed regional temperature models, which predicted that unsuitable thermal habitat for brown trout increased by 93% when comparing climate conditions between 1975–1986 and 1993–2004. Predictions from climate envelope models showed that current climate change may be rendering unsuitable 12% of suitable thermal habitat each decade, resulting in an overall population decrease in the lower reaches of around 6% per year. Furthermore, brown trout catches markedly decreased 20% per year. Projections of thermal habitat loss under the ecologically friendly B2 SRES scenario showed that brown trout may lose half of their current suitable habitat within the study area by 2040 and become almost extinct by 2100. In parallel to the upstream movement of brown trout thermal habitat, warm water species are increasing their relative abundance in salmonid waters. Empirical evidence was provided of how current climate change threatens some of the most healthy native brown trout populations in Southern Europe and how forthcoming climate change is expected to further decrease the conservation status of the species.     

Can amphibians take the heat? Vulnerability to climate warming in subtropical and temperate larval amphibian communities

Predicting the biodiversity impacts of global warming implies that we know where and with what magnitude these impacts will be encountered. Amphibians are currently the most threatened vertebrates, mainly due to habitat loss and to emerging infectious diseases. Global warming may further exacerbate their decline in the near future, although the impact might vary geographically. We predicted that subtropical amphibians should be relatively susceptible to warming‐induced extinctions because their upper critical thermal limits (CT_max) might be only slightly higher than maximum pond temperatures (T_max). We tested this prediction by measuring CT_max and T_max for 47 larval amphibian species from two thermally distinct subtropical communities (the warm community of the Gran Chaco and the cool community of Atlantic Forest, northern Argentina), as well as from one European temperate community. Upper thermal tolerances of tadpoles were positively correlated (controlling for phylogeny) with maximum pond temperatures, although the slope was steeper in subtropical than in temperate species. CT_max values were lowest in temperate species and highest in the subtropical warm community, which paradoxically, had very low warming tolerance (CT_max–T_max) and therefore may be prone to future local extinction from acute thermal stress if rising pond T_max soon exceeds their CT_max. Canopy‐protected subtropical cool species have larger warming tolerance and thus should be less impacted by peak temperatures. Temperate species are relatively secure to warming impacts, except for late breeders with low thermal tolerance, which may be exposed to physiological thermal stress in the coming years.