Net landscape carbon balance of a tropical savanna: Relative importance of fire and aquatic export in offsetting terrestrial production

The magnitude of the terrestrial carbon (C) sink may be overestimated globally due to the difficulty of accounting for all C losses across heterogeneous landscapes. More complete assessments of net landscape C balances (NLCB) are needed that integrate both emissions by fire and transfer to aquatic systems, two key loss pathways of terrestrial C. These pathways can be particularly significant in the wet–dry tropics, where fire plays a fundamental part in ecosystems and where intense rainfall and seasonal flooding can result in considerable aquatic C export (ΣF_aq). Here, we determined the NLCB of a lowland catchment (~140 km²) in tropical Australia over 2 years by evaluating net terrestrial productivity (NEP), fire‐related C emissions and ΣF_aq (comprising both downstream transport and gaseous evasion) for the two main landscape components, that is, savanna woodland and seasonal wetlands. We found that the catchment was a large C sink (NLCB 334 Mg C km^?2 year^?1), and that savanna and wetland areas contributed 84% and 16% to this sink, respectively. Annually, fire emissions (?56 Mg C km^?2 year^?1) and ΣF_aq (?28 Mg C km^?2 year^?1) reduced NEP by 13% and 7%, respectively. Savanna burning shifted the catchment to a net C source for several months during the dry season, while ΣF_aq significantly offset NEP during the wet season, with a disproportionate contribution by single major monsoonal events—up to 39% of annual ΣF_aq was exported in one event. We hypothesize that wetter and hotter conditions in the wet–dry tropics in the future will increase ΣF_aq and fire emissions, potentially further reducing the current C sink in the region. More long‐term studies are needed to upscale this first NLCB estimate to less productive, yet hydrologically dynamic regions of the wet–dry tropics where our result indicating a significant C sink may not hold.     

Response of terrestrial carbon uptake to climate interannual variability in China

The interest in national terrestrial ecosystem carbon budgets has been increasing because the Kyoto Protocol has included some terrestrial carbon sinks in a legally binding framework for controlling greenhouse gases emissions. Accurate quantification of the terrestrial carbon sink must account the interannual variations associated with climate variability and change. This study used a process‐based biogeochemical model and a remote sensing‐based production efficiency model to estimate the variations in net primary production (NPP), soil heterotrophic respiration (HR), and net ecosystem production (NEP) caused by climate variability and atmospheric CO₂ increases in China during the period 1981–2000. The results show that China's terrestrial NPP varied between 2.86 and 3.37 Gt C yr^?1 with a growth rate of 0.32% year^?1 and HR varied between 2.89 and 3.21 Gt C yr^?1 with a growth rate of 0.40% year^?1 in the period 1981–1998. Whereas the increases in HR were related mainly to warming, the increases in NPP were attributed to increases in precipitation and atmospheric CO₂. Net ecosystem production (NEP) varied between ?0.32 and 0.25 Gt C yr^?1 with a mean value of 0.07 Gt C yr^?1, leading to carbon accumulation of 0.79 Gt in vegetation and 0.43 Gt in soils during the period. To the interannual variations in NEP changes in NPP contributed more than HR in arid northern China but less in moist southern China. NEP had no a statistically significant trend, but the mean annual NEP for the 1990s was lower than for the 1980s as the increases in NEP in southern China were offset by the decreases in northern China. These estimates indicate that China's terrestrial ecosystems were taking up carbon but the capacity was undermined by the ongoing climate change. The estimated NEP related to climate variation and atmospheric CO₂ increases may account for from 40 to 80% to the total terrestrial carbon sink in China.     

Terrestrial carbon balance in a drier world: the effects of water availability in southwestern North America

Global modeling efforts indicate semiarid regions dominate the increasing trend and interannual variation of net CO₂ exchange with the atmosphere, mainly driven by water availability. Many semiarid regions are expected to undergo climatic drying, but the impacts on net CO₂ exchange are poorly understood due to limited semiarid flux observations. Here we evaluated 121 site‐years of annual eddy covariance measurements of net and gross CO₂ exchange (photosynthesis and respiration), precipitation, and evapotranspiration (ET) in 21 semiarid North American ecosystems with an observed range of 100 – 1000 mm in annual precipitation and records of 4–9 years each. In addition to evaluating spatial relationships among CO₂ and water fluxes across sites, we separately quantified site‐level temporal relationships, representing sensitivity to interannual variation. Across the climatic and ecological gradient, photosynthesis showed a saturating spatial relationship to precipitation, whereas the photosynthesis–ET relationship was linear, suggesting ET was a better proxy for water available to drive CO₂ exchanges after hydrologic losses. Both photosynthesis and respiration showed similar site‐level sensitivity to interannual changes in ET among the 21 ecosystems. Furthermore, these temporal relationships were not different from the spatial relationships of long‐term mean CO₂ exchanges with climatic ET. Consequently, a hypothetical 100‐mm change in ET, whether short term or long term, was predicted to alter net ecosystem production (NEP) by 64 gCm^?2 yr^?1. Most of the unexplained NEP variability was related to persistent, site‐specific function, suggesting prioritization of research on slow‐changing controls. Common temporal and spatial sensitivity to water availability increases our confidence that site‐level responses to interannual weather can be extrapolated for prediction of CO₂ exchanges over decadal and longer timescales relevant to societal response to climate change.     

FLUXNET and modelling the global carbon cycle

Measurements of the net CO₂ flux between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere using the eddy covariance technique have the potential to underpin our interpretation of regional CO₂ source–sink patterns, CO₂ flux responses to forcings, and predictions of the future terrestrial C balance. Information contained in FLUXNET eddy covariance data has multiple uses for the development and application of global carbon models, including evaluation/validation, calibration, process parameterization, and data assimilation. This paper reviews examples of these uses, compares global estimates of the dynamics of the global carbon cycle, and suggests ways of improving the utility of such data for global carbon modelling. Net ecosystem exchange of CO₂ (NEE) predicted by different terrestrial biosphere models compares favourably with FLUXNET observations at diurnal and seasonal timescales. However, complete model validation, particularly over the full annual cycle, requires information on the balance between assimilation and decomposition processes, information not readily available for most FLUXNET sites. Site history, when known, can greatly help constrain the model‐data comparison. Flux measurements made over four vegetation types were used to calibrate the land‐surface scheme of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model, significantly improving simulated climate and demonstrating the utility of diurnal FLUXNET data for climate modelling. Land‐surface temperatures in many regions cool due to higher canopy conductances and latent heat fluxes, and the spatial distribution of CO₂ uptake provides a significant additional constraint on the realism of simulated surface fluxes. FLUXNET data are used to calibrate a global production efficiency model (PEM). This model is forced by satellite‐measured absorbed radiation and suggests that global net primary production (NPP) increased 6.2% over 1982–1999. Good agreement is found between global trends in NPP estimated by the PEM and a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and between the DGVM and estimates of global NEE derived from a global inversion of atmospheric CO₂ measurements. Combining the PEM, DGVM, and inversion results suggests that CO₂ fertilization is playing a major role in current increases in NPP, with lesser impacts from increasing N deposition and growing season length. Both the PEM and the inversion identify the Amazon basin as a key region for the current net terrestrial CO₂ uptake (i.e. 33% of global NEE), as well as its interannual variability. The inversion's global NEE estimate of −1.2 Pg [C] yr⁻¹ for 1982–1995 is compatible with the PEM‐ and DGVM‐predicted trends in NPP. There is, thus, a convergence in understanding derived from process‐based models, remote‐sensing‐based observations, and inversion of atmospheric data. Future advances in field measurement techniques, including eddy covariance (particularly concerning the problem of night‐time fluxes in dense canopies and of advection or flow distortion over complex terrain), will result in improved constraints on land‐atmosphere CO₂ fluxes and the rigorous attribution of mechanisms to the current terrestrial net CO₂ uptake and its spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Global ecosystem models play a fundamental role in linking information derived from FLUXNET measurements to atmospheric CO₂ variability. A number of recommendations concerning FLUXNET data are made, including a request for more comprehensive site data (particularly historical information), more measurements in undisturbed ecosystems, and the systematic provision of error estimates. The greatest value of current FLUXNET data for global carbon cycle modelling is in evaluating process representations, rather than in providing an unbiased estimate of net CO₂ exchange.     

Seasonal carbon dynamics and water fluxes in an Amazon rainforest

Satellite‐based observations indicate that seasonal patterns in canopy greenness and productivity in the Amazon are negatively correlated with precipitation, with increased greenness occurring during the dry months. Flux tower measurements indicate that the canopy greening that occurs during the dry season is associated with increases in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Land surface and terrestrial biosphere model simulations for the region have predicted the opposite of these observed patterns, with significant declines in greenness, NEP, and ET during the dry season. In this study, we address this issue mainly by developing an empirically constrained, light‐controlled phenology submodel within the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2). The constrained ED2 model with a suite of field observations shows markedly improved predictions of seasonal ecosystem dynamics, more accurately capturing the observed patterns of seasonality in water, carbon, and litter fluxes seen at the Tapajos National Forest, Brazil (2.86°S, 54.96°W). Long‐term simulations indicate that this light‐controlled phenology increases the resilience of Amazon forest NEP to interannual variability in climate forcing.     

Climatic and biotic controls on annual carbon storage in Amazonian ecosystems

• 1 The role of undisturbed tropical land ecosystems in the global carbon budget is not well understood. It has been suggested that interannual climate variability can affect the capacity of these ecosystems to store carbon in the short term. In this paper, we use a transient version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) to estimate annual carbon storage in undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems during the period 1980–94, and to understand the underlying causes of the year‐to‐year variations in net carbon storage for this region.
  • 2 We estimate that the total carbon storage in the undisturbed ecosystems of the Amazon Basin in 1980 was 127.6 Pg C, with about 94.3 Pg C in vegetation and 33.3 Pg C in the reactive pool of soil organic carbon. About 83% of the total carbon storage occurred in tropical evergreen forests. Based on our model’s results, we estimate that, over the past 15 years, the total carbon storage has increased by 3.1 Pg C (+ 2%), with a 1.9‐Pg C (+2%) increase in vegetation carbon and a 1.2‐Pg C (+4%) increase in reactive soil organic carbon. The modelled results indicate that the largest relative changes in net carbon storage have occurred in tropical deciduous forests, but that the largest absolute changes in net carbon storage have occurred in the moist and wet forests of the Basin.
    • 3 Our results show that the strength of interannual variations in net carbon storage of undisturbed ecosystems in the Amazon Basin varies from a carbon source of 0.2 Pg C/year to a carbon sink of 0.7 Pg C/year. Precipitation, especially the amount received during the drier months, appears to be a major controller of annual net carbon storage in the Amazon Basin. Our analysis indicates further that changes in precipitation combine with changes in temperature to affect net carbon storage through influencing soil moisture and nutrient availability.
      • 4 On average, our results suggest that the undisturbed Amazonian ecosystems accumulated 0.2 Pg C/year as a result of climate variability and increasing atmospheric CO₂ over the study period. This amount is large enough to have compensated for most of the carbon losses associated with tropical deforestation in the Amazon during the same period.
        • 5 Comparisons with empirical data indicate that climate variability and CO₂ fertilization explain most of the variation in net carbon storage for the undisturbed ecosystems. Our analyses suggest that assessment of the regional carbon budget in the tropics should be made over at least one cycle of El Niño–Southern Oscillation because of interannual climate variability. Our analyses also suggest that proper scaling of the site‐specific and subannual measurements of carbon fluxes to produce Basin‐wide flux estimates must take into account seasonal and spatial variations in net carbon storage.

     

A scaling approach for quantifying the net CO2 flux of the Kuparuk River Basin,Alaska

Net CO₂ flux measurements conducted during the summer and winter of 1994–96 were scaled in space and time to provide estimates of net CO₂ exchange during the 1995–96 (9 May 1995–8 May 1996) annual cycle for the Kuparuk River Basin, a 9200 km² watershed located in NE Alaska. Net CO₂ flux was measured using dynamic chambers and eddy covariance in moist‐acidic, nonacidic, wet‐sedge, and shrub tundra, which comprise 95% of the terrestrial landscape of the Kuparuk Basin. CO₂ flux data were used as input to multivariate models that calculated instantaneous and daily rates of gross primary production (GPP) and whole‐ecosystem respiration (R) as a function of meteorology and ecosystem development. Net CO₂ flux was scaled up to the Kuparuk Basin using a geographical information system (GIS) consisting of a vegetation map, digital terrain map, dynamic temperature and radiation fields, and the models of GPP and R. Basin‐wide estimates of net CO₂ exchange for the summer growing season (9 May?5 September 1995) indicate that nonacidic tundra was a net sink of ?31.7 ± 21.3 GgC (1 Gg = 10⁹ g), while shrub tundra lost 32.5 ± 6.3 GgC to the atmosphere (negative values denote net ecosystem CO₂ uptake). Acidic and wet sedge tundra were in balance, and when integrated for the entire Kuparuk River Basin (including aquatic surfaces), whole basin summer net CO₂ exchange was estimated to be in balance (?0.9 ± 50.3 GgC). Autumn to winter (6 September 1995–8 May 1996) estimates of net CO₂ flux indicate that acidic, nonacidic, and shrub tundra landforms were all large sources of CO₂ to the atmosphere (75.5 ± 8.3, 96.4 ± 11.4, and 43.3 ± 4.7 GgC for acidic, nonacidic, and shrub tundra, respectively). CO₂ loss from wet sedge surfaces was not substantially different from zero, but the large losses from the other terrestrial landforms resulted in a whole basin net CO₂ loss of 217.2 ± 24.1 GgC during the 1995–96 cold season. When integrated for the 1995–96 annual cycle, acidic (66.4 + 25.25 GgC), nonacidic (64.7 ± 29.2 GgC), and shrub tundra (75.8 ± 8.4 GgC) were substantial net sources of CO₂ to the atmosphere, while wet sedge tundra was in balance (0.4 + 0.8 GgC). The Kuparuk River Basin as a whole was estimated to be a net CO₂ source of 218.1 ± 60.6 GgC over the 1995–96 annual cycle. Compared to direct measurements of regional net CO₂ flux obtained from aircraft‐based eddy covariance, the scaling procedure provided realistic estimates of CO₂ exchange during the summer growing season. Although winter estimates could not be assessed directly using aircraft measurements of net CO₂ exchange, the estimates reported here are comparable to measured values reported in the literature. Thus, we have high confidence in the summer estimates of net CO₂ exchange and reasonable confidence in the winter net CO₂ flux estimates for terrestrial landforms of the Kuparuk river basin. Although there is larger uncertainty in the aquatic estimates, the small surface area of aquatic surfaces in the Kuparuk river basin (≈ 5%) presumably reduces the potential for this uncertainty to result in large errors in basin‐wide CO₂ flux estimates.     

Systematic assessment of terrestrial biogeochemistry in coupled climate–carbon models

With representation of the global carbon cycle becoming increasingly complex in climate models, it is important to develop ways to quantitatively evaluate model performance against in situ and remote sensing observations. Here we present a systematic framework, the Carbon‐LAnd Model Intercomparison Project (C‐LAMP), for assessing terrestrial biogeochemistry models coupled to climate models using observations that span a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. As an example of the value of such comparisons, we used this framework to evaluate two biogeochemistry models that are integrated within the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) – Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach′ (CASA′) and carbon–nitrogen (CN). Both models underestimated the magnitude of net carbon uptake during the growing season in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems, based on comparison with atmospheric CO₂ measurements and eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem exchange. Comparison with MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements show that this low bias in model fluxes was caused, at least in part, by 1–3 month delays in the timing of maximum leaf area. In the tropics, the models overestimated carbon storage in woody biomass based on comparison with datasets from the Amazon. Reducing this model bias will probably weaken the sensitivity of terrestrial carbon fluxes to both atmospheric CO₂ and climate. Global carbon sinks during the 1990s differed by a factor of two (2.4 Pg C yr^?1 for CASA′ vs. 1.2 Pg C yr^?1 for CN), with fluxes from both models compatible with the atmospheric budget given uncertainties in other terms. The models captured some of the timing of interannual global terrestrial carbon exchange during 1988–2004 based on comparison with atmospheric inversion results from TRANSCOM (r=0.66 for CASA′ and r=0.73 for CN). Adding (CASA′) or improving (CN) the representation of deforestation fires may further increase agreement with the atmospheric record. Information from C‐LAMP has enhanced model performance within CCSM and serves as a benchmark for future development. We propose that an open source, community‐wide platform for model‐data intercomparison is needed to speed model development and to strengthen ties between modeling and measurement communities. Important next steps include the design and analysis of land use change simulations (in both uncoupled and coupled modes), and the entrainment of additional ecological and earth system observations. Model results from C‐LAMP are publicly available on the Earth System Grid.     

Interannual variability in global soil respiration, 1980–94

We used a climate‐driven regression model to develop spatially resolved estimates of soil‐CO₂ emissions from the terrestrial land surface for each month from January 1980 to December 1994, to evaluate the effects of interannual variations in climate on global soil‐to‐atmosphere CO₂ fluxes. The mean annual global soil‐CO₂ flux over this 15‐y period was estimated to be 80.4 (range 79.3–81.8) Pg C. Monthly variations in global soil‐CO₂ emissions followed closely the mean temperature cycle of the Northern Hemisphere. Globally, soil‐CO₂ emissions reached their minima in February and peaked in July and August. Tropical and subtropical evergreen broad‐leaved forests contributed more soil‐derived CO₂ to the atmosphere than did any other vegetation type (～30% of the total) and exhibited a biannual cycle in their emissions. Soil‐CO₂ emissions in other biomes exhibited a single annual cycle that paralleled the seasonal temperature cycle. Interannual variability in estimated global soil‐CO₂ production is substantially less than is variability in net carbon uptake by plants (i.e., net primary productivity). Thus, soils appear to buffer atmospheric CO₂ concentrations against far more dramatic seasonal and interannual differences in plant growth. Within seasonally dry biomes (savannas, bushlands and deserts), interannual variability in soil‐CO₂ emissions correlated significantly with interannual differences in precipitation. At the global scale, however, annual soil‐CO₂ fluxes correlated with mean annual temperature, with a slope of 3.3 Pg C y^?1 per °C. Although the distribution of precipitation influences seasonal and spatial patterns of soil‐CO₂ emissions, global warming is likely to stimulate CO₂ emissions from soils.     

CO2 stabilization,climate change and the terrestrial carbon sink

A nonequilibrium, dynamic, global vegetation model, Hybrid v4.1, with a subdaily timestep, was driven by increasing CO₂ and transient climate output from the UK Hadley Centre GCM (HadCM2) with simulated daily and interannual variability. Three IPCC emission scenarios were used: (i) IS92a, giving 790 ppm CO₂ by 2100, (ii) CO₂ stabilization at 750 ppm by 2225, and (iii) CO₂ stabilization at 550 ppm by 2150. Land use and future N deposition were not included. In the IS92a scenario, boreal and tropical lands warmed 4.5 °C by 2100 with rainfall decreased in parts of the tropics, where temperatures increased over 6 °C in some years and vapour pressure deficits (VPD) doubled. Stabilization at 750 ppm CO₂ delayed these changes by about 100 years while stabilization at 550 ppm limited the rise in global land surface temperature to 2.5 °C and lessened the appearance of relatively hot, dry areas in the tropics. Present‐day global predictions were 645 PgC in vegetation, 1190 PgC in soils, a mean carbon residence time of 40 years, NPP 47 PgC y^?1 and NEP (the terrestrial sink) about 1 PgC y^?1, distributed at both high and tropical latitudes. With IS92a emissions, the high latitude sink increased to the year 2100, as forest NPP accelerated and forest vegetation carbon stocks increased. The tropics became a source of CO₂ as forest dieback occurred in relatively hot, dry areas in 2060–2080. High VPDs and temperatures reduced NPP in tropical forests, primarily by reducing stomatal conductance and increasing maintenance respiration. Global NEP peaked at 3–4 PgC y^?1 in 2020–2050 and then decreased abruptly to near zero by 2100 as the tropical source offset the high‐latitude sink. The pattern of change in NEP was similar with CO₂ stabilization at 750 ppm, but was delayed by about 100 years and with a less abrupt collapse in global NEP. CO₂ stabilization at 550 ppm prevented sustained tropical forest dieback and enabled recovery to occur in favourable years, while maintaining a similar time course of global NEP as occurred with 750 ppm stabilization. By lessening dieback, stabilization increased the fraction of carbon emissions taken up by the land. Comparable studies and other evidence are discussed: climate‐induced tropical forest dieback is considered a plausible risk of following an unmitigated emissions scenario.     

CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration across dryland ecosystems of southwestern North America

Global‐scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO₂ sink. However, such analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO₂ exchange in drylands. Here we address this observation gap with eddy covariance data from 25 sites in the water‐limited Southwest region of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of 100–1000 mm, annual temperatures of 2–25°C, and records of 3–10 years (150 site‐years in total). Annual fluxes were integrated using site‐specific ecohydrologic years to group precipitation with resulting ecosystem exchanges. We found a wide range of carbon sink/source function, with mean annual net ecosystem production (NEP) varying from ‐350 to +330 gCm^?2 across sites with diverse vegetation types, contrasting with the more constant sink typically measured in mesic ecosystems. In this region, only forest‐dominated sites were consistent carbon sinks. Interannual variability of NEP, gross ecosystem production (GEP), and ecosystem respiration (R_eco) was larger than for mesic regions, and half the sites switched between functioning as C sinks/C sources in wet/dry years. The sites demonstrated coherent responses of GEP and NEP to anomalies in annual evapotranspiration (ET), used here as a proxy for annually available water after hydrologic losses. Notably, GEP and R_eco were negatively related to temperature, both interannually within site and spatially across sites, in contrast to positive temperature effects commonly reported for mesic ecosystems. Models based on MODIS satellite observations matched the cross‐site spatial pattern in mean annual GEP but consistently underestimated mean annual ET by ~50%. Importantly, the MODIS‐based models captured only 20–30% of interannual variation magnitude. These results suggest the contribution of this dryland region to variability of regional to global CO₂ exchange may be up to 3–5 times larger than current estimates.     

Carbon exchange of a mature,naturally regenerated pine forest in north Florida

We used eddy covariance and biomass measurements to quantify the carbon (C) dynamics of a naturally regenerated longleaf pine/slash pine flatwoods ecosystem in north Florida for 4 years, July 2000 to June 2002 and 2004 to 2005, to quantify how forest type, silvicultural intensity and environment influence stand‐level C balance. Precipitation over the study periods ranged from extreme drought (July 2000–June 2002) to above‐average precipitation (2004 and 2005). After photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD), vapor pressure deficit (VPD) >1.5 kPa and air temperature <10 °C were important constraints on daytime half‐hourly net CO₂ exchange (NEE_day) and reduced the magnitude of midday CO₂ exchange by >5 μmol CO₂ m^?2 s^?1. Analysis of water use efficiency indicated that stomatal closure at VPD>1.5 kPa moderated transpiration similarly in both drought and wet years. Night‐time exchange (NEE_night) was an exponential function of air temperature, with rates further modulated by soil moisture. Estimated annual net ecosystem production (NEP) was remarkably consistent among the four measurement years (range: 158–192 g C m^?2 yr^?1). In comparison, annual ecosystem C assimilation estimates from biomass measurements between 2000 and 2002 ranged from 77 to 136 g C m^?2 yr^?1. Understory fluxes accounted for approximately 25–35% of above‐canopy NEE over 24‐h periods, and 85% and 27% of whole‐ecosystem fluxes during night and midday (11:00–15:00 hours) periods, respectively. Concurrent measurements of a nearby intensively managed slash pine plantation showed that annual NEP was three to four times greater than that of the Austin Cary Memorial Forest, highlighting the importance of silviculture and management in regulating stand‐level C budgets.     

Elevated CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and nitrogen addition accelerate net carbon gain in a brackish marsh

Wetlands have an inordinate influence on the global greenhouse gas budget, but how global changes may alter wetland contribution to future greenhouse gas fluxes is poorly understood. We determined the greenhouse gas balance of a tidal marsh exposed to nine years of experimental carbon dioxide (CO₂) and nitrogen (N) manipulation. We estimated net carbon (C) gain rates by measuring changes in plant and soil C pools over nine years. In wetland soils that accrete primarily through organic matter inputs, long-term measurements of soil elevation, along with soil C density, provide a robust estimate of net soil C gain. We used net soil C gain along with methane and nitrous oxide fluxes to determine the radiative forcing of the marsh under elevated CO₂ and N addition. Nearly all plots exhibited a net gain of C over the study period (up to 203 g C m^?2 year^?1), and C gain rates were greater with N and CO₂ addition. Treatment effects on C gain and methane emissions dominated trends in radiative forcing while nitrous oxide fluxes in all treatments were negligible. Though these soils experience salinities that typically suppress methane emissions, our results suggest that elevated CO₂ can stimulate methane emissions, overcoming positive effects of elevated CO₂ on C gain, converting brackish marshes that are typically net greenhouse gas sinks into sources. Adding resources, either CO₂ or N, will likely increase “blue carbon” accumulation rates in tidal marshes, but importantly, each resource can have distinct influences on the direction of total greenhouse forcing.     

Terrestrial fluxes of carbon in GCP carbon budgets

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) has published global carbon budgets annually since 2007 (Canadell et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 18866–18870; Raupach et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 10288–10293). There are many scientists involved, but the terrestrial fluxes that appear in the budgets are not well understood by ecologists and biogeochemists outside of that community. The purpose of this paper is to make the terrestrial fluxes of carbon in those budgets more accessible to a broader community. The GCP budget is composed of annual perturbations from pre‐industrial conditions, driven by addition of carbon to the system from combustion of fossil fuels and by transfers of carbon from land to the atmosphere as a result of land use. The budget includes a term for each of the major fluxes of carbon (fossil fuels, oceans, land) as well as the rate of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere. Land is represented by two terms: one resulting from direct anthropogenic effects (Land Use, Land‐Use Change, and Forestry or land management) and one resulting from indirect anthropogenic (e.g., CO₂, climate change) and natural effects. Each of these two net terrestrial fluxes of carbon, in turn, is composed of opposing gross emissions and removals (e.g., deforestation and forest regrowth). Although the GCP budgets have focused on the two net terrestrial fluxes, they have paid little attention to the gross components, which are important for a number of reasons, including understanding the potential for land management to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere and understanding the processes responsible for the sink for carbon on land. In contrast to the net fluxes of carbon, which are constrained by the global carbon budget, the gross fluxes are largely unconstrained, suggesting that there is more uncertainty than commonly believed about how terrestrial carbon emissions will respond to future fossil fuel emissions and a changing climate.     

Seasonal controls on interannual variability in carbon dioxide exchange of a near-end-of rotation Douglas-fir stand in the Pacific Northwest, 1997–2006

This study analyzes 9 years of eddy‐covariance (EC) data carried out in a Pacific Northwest Douglas‐fir (Pseudotsuga menzesii) forest (58‐year old in 2007) on the east coast of Vancouver Island, Canada, and characterizes the seasonal and interannual variability in net ecosystem productivity (NEP), gross primary productivity (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (R_e) and primary climatic controls on these fluxes. The annual values (± SD) of NEP, GPP and R_e were 357 ± 51, 2124 ± 125, and 1767 ± 146 g C m^?2 yr^?1, respectively, with ranges of 267–410, 1592–2338, and 1642–2071 g C m^?2 yr^?1, respectively. Spring to early summer (March–June) accounted for more than 80% of annual NEP while late spring to early autumn (May–August) was mainly responsible for its interannual variability (～80%). The major drivers of interannual variability in annual carbon (C) fluxes were annual and spring mean air temperatures (T_a) and water deficiency during late summer and autumn (July–October) when this Douglas‐fir forest growth was often water‐limited. Photosynthetically active radiation (Q), and the combination of Q and soil water content (θ) explained 85% and 91% of the variance of monthly GPP, respectively; and 91% and 96% of the variance of monthly R_e was explained by T_a and the combination of T_a and θ, respectively. Annual net C sequestration was high during optimally warm and normal precipitation years, but low in unusually warm or severely dry years. Excluding 1998 and 1999, the 2 years strongly affected by an El Niño/La Niña cycle, annual NEP significantly decreased with increasing annual mean T_a. Annual NEP will likely decrease whereas both annual GPP and R_e will likely increase if the future climate at the site follows a trend similar to that of the past 40 years.     

Contrasting ecosystem CO2 fluxes of inland and coastal wetlands: a meta‐analysis of eddy covariance data

Wetlands play an important role in regulating the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations and thus affecting the climate. However, there is still lack of quantitative evaluation of such a role across different wetland types, especially at the global scale. Here, we conducted a meta‐analysis to compare ecosystem CO₂ fluxes among various types of wetlands using a global database compiled from the literature. This database consists of 143 site‐years of eddy covariance data from 22 inland wetland and 21 coastal wetland sites across the globe. Coastal wetlands had higher annual gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R_e), and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) than inland wetlands. On a per unit area basis, coastal wetlands provided large CO₂ sinks, while inland wetlands provided small CO₂ sinks or were nearly CO₂ neutral. The annual CO₂ sink strength was 93.15 and 208.37 g C m^?2 for inland and coastal wetlands, respectively. Annual CO₂ fluxes were mainly regulated by mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP). For coastal and inland wetlands combined, MAT and MAP explained 71%, 54%, and 57% of the variations in GPP, R_e, and NEP, respectively. The CO₂ fluxes of wetlands were also related to leaf area index (LAI). The CO₂ fluxes also varied with water table depth (WTD), although the effects of WTD were not statistically significant. NEP was jointly determined by GPP and R_e for both inland and coastal wetlands. However, the NEP/R_e and NEP/GPP ratios exhibited little variability for inland wetlands and decreased for coastal wetlands with increasing latitude. The contrasting of CO₂ fluxes between inland and coastal wetlands globally can improve our understanding of the roles of wetlands in the global C cycle. Our results also have implications for informing wetland management and climate change policymaking, for example, the efforts being made by international organizations and enterprises to restore coastal wetlands for enhancing blue carbon sinks.     

Wetland flux controls: how does interacting water table levels and temperature influence carbon dioxide and methane fluxes in northern Wisconsin?

Wetlands play a disproportionately large role in global terrestrial carbon stocks, and from 1 year to the next individual wetlands can fluctuate between carbon sinks and sources depending on factors such as hydrology, temperature, and land use. Although much research has been done on short-term seasonal to annual wetland biogeochemical cycles, there is a lack of experimental evidence concerning how the reversibility of wetland hydrological changes will influence these cycles over longer time periods. Five years of drought-induced declining water table at Lost Creek, a shrub fen wetland in northern Wisconsin, coincided with increased ecosystem respiration (R_eco) and gross primary production (GPP) as derived from long-term eddy covariance observations. Since then, however, the average water table level at this site has increased, providing a unique opportunity to explore how wetland carbon fluxes are affected by interannual air temperature differences as well as changing water table levels. Water table level, as measured by water discharge, was correlated with R_eco and GPP at interannual time scales. However, air temperature had a strong correlation with R_eco, GPP, and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) at monthly time scales and correlated with NEP at inter-annual time scales. Methane flux was strongly temperature-controlled at seasonal time scales, increasing an order of magnitude from April to July. Annual methane emissions were 51 g C m^?2. Our results demonstrate that over multi-year timescales, water table fluctuations can have limited effects on wetland net carbon fluxes and instead at Lost Creek annual temperature is the best predictor of interannual variation.     

Temperature and biomass influences on interannual changes in CO2 exchange in an alpine meadow on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Three years of eddy covariance measurements were used to characterize the seasonal and interannual variability of the CO₂ fluxes above an alpine meadow (3250 m a.s.l.) on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau, China. This alpine meadow was a weak sink for atmospheric CO₂, with a net ecosystem production (NEP) of 78.5, 91.7, and 192.5 g C m^?2 yr^?1 in 2002, 2003, and 2004, respectively. The prominent, high NEP in 2004 resulted from the combination of high gross primary production (GPP) and low ecosystem respiration (R_e) during the growing season. The period of net absorption of CO₂ in 2004, 179 days, was 10 days longer than that in 2002 and 5 days longer than that in 2003. Moreover, the date on which the mean air temperature first exceeded 5.0°C was 10 days earlier in 2004 (DOY110) than in 2002 or 2003. This date agrees well with that on which the green aboveground biomass (Green AGB) started to increase. The relationship between light‐use efficiency and Green AGB was similar among the three years. In 2002, however, earlier senescence possibly caused low autumn GPP, and thus the annual NEP, to be lower. The low summertime R_e in 2004 was apparently caused by lower soil temperatures and the relatively lower temperature dependence of R_e in comparison with the other years. These results suggest that (1) the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau plays a potentially significant role in global carbon sequestration, because alpine meadow covers about one‐third of this vast plateau, and (2) the annual NEP in the alpine meadow was comprehensively controlled by the temperature environment, including its effect on biomass growth.     

Effects of 21st‐century climate,land use,and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO₂. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in California over the period 2001–2100. We modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 land use and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models. Between 2001 and 2015, carbon storage in California's terrestrial ecosystems declined by ?188.4 Tg C, with a mean annual flux ranging from a source of ?89.8 Tg C/year to a sink of 60.1 Tg C/year. The large variability in the magnitude of the state's carbon source/sink was primarily attributable to interannual variability in weather and climate, which affected the rate of carbon uptake in vegetation and the rate of ecosystem respiration. Under nearly all future scenarios, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was projected to decline, with an average loss of ?9.4% (?432.3 Tg C) by the year 2100 from current stocks. However, uncertainty in the magnitude of carbon loss was high, with individual scenario projections ranging from ?916.2 to 121.2 Tg C and was largely driven by differences in future climate conditions projected by climate models. Moving from a high to a low radiative forcing scenario reduced net ecosystem carbon loss by 21% and when combined with reductions in land‐use change (i.e., moving from a high to a low land‐use scenario), net carbon losses were reduced by 55% on average. However, reconciling large uncertainties associated with the effect of increasing atmospheric CO₂ is needed to better constrain models used to establish baseline conditions from which ecosystem‐based climate mitigation strategies can be evaluated.     

Net primary and ecosystem production and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to climate change

Evaluating the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle requires a detailed understanding of carbon exchange between vegetation, soil, and the atmosphere. Global climatic change may modify the net carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems, causing feedbacks on atmospheric CO₂ and climate. We describe a model for investigating terrestrial carbon exchange and its response to climatic variation based on the processes of plant photosynthesis, carbon allocation, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition. The model is used to produce geographical patterns of net primary production (NPP), carbon stocks in vegetation and soils, and the seasonal variations in net ecosystem production (NEP) under both contemporary and future climates. For contemporary climate, the estimated global NPP is 57.0 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils are 640 Gt C and 1358 Gt C, respectively, and NEP varies from –0.5 Gt C in October to 1.6 Gt C in July. For a doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration and the corresponding climate, we predict that global NPP will rise to 69.6 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils will increase by, respectively, 133 Gt C and 160 Gt C, and the seasonal amplitude of NEP will increase by 76%. A doubling of atmospheric CO₂ without climate change may enhance NPP by 25% and result in a substantial increase in carbon stocks in vegetation and soils. Climate change without CO₂ elevation will reduce the global NPP and soil carbon stocks, but leads to an increase in vegetation carbon because of a forest extension and NPP enhancement in the north. By combining the effects of CO₂ doubling, climate change, and the consequent redistribution of vegetation, we predict a strong enhancement in NPP and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems. This study simulates the possible variation in the carbon exchange at equilibrium state. We anticipate to investigate the dynamic responses in the carbon exchange to atmospheric CO₂ elevation and climate change in the past and future.