Trapped within the city: integrating demography,time since isolation and population‐specific traits to assess the genetic effects of urbanization

Urbanization is a severe form of habitat fragmentation that can cause many species to be locally extirpated and many others to become trapped and isolated within an urban matrix. The role of drift in reducing genetic diversity and increasing genetic differentiation is well recognized in urban populations. However, explicit incorporation and analysis of the demographic and temporal factors promoting drift in urban environments are poorly studied. Here, we genotyped 15 microsatellites in 320 fire salamanders from the historical city of Oviedo (Est. 8th century) to assess the effects of time since isolation, demographic history (historical effective population size; N_e) and patch size on genetic diversity, population structure and contemporary N_e. Our results indicate that urban populations of fire salamanders are highly differentiated, most likely due to the recent N_e declines, as calculated in coalescence analyses, concomitant with the urban development of Oviedo. However, urbanization only caused a small loss of genetic diversity. Regression modelling showed that patch size was positively associated with contemporary N_e, while we found only moderate support for the effects of demographic history when excluding populations with unresolved history. This highlights the interplay between different factors in determining current genetic diversity and structure. Overall, the results of our study on urban populations of fire salamanders provide some of the very first insights into the mechanisms affecting changes in genetic diversity and population differentiation via drift in urban environments, a crucial subject in a world where increasing urbanization is forecasted.     

Genomewide patterns of variation in genetic diversity are shared among populations,species and higher‐order taxa

Genomewide screens of genetic variation within and between populations can reveal signatures of selection implicated in adaptation and speciation. Genomic regions with low genetic diversity and elevated differentiation reflective of locally reduced effective population sizes (N_e) are candidates for barrier loci contributing to population divergence. Yet, such candidate genomic regions need not arise as a result of selection promoting adaptation or advancing reproductive isolation. Linked selection unrelated to lineage‐specific adaptation or population divergence can generate comparable signatures. It is challenging to distinguish between these processes, particularly when diverging populations share ancestral genetic variation. In this study, we took a comparative approach using population assemblages from distant clades assessing genomic parallelism of variation in N_e. Utilizing population‐level polymorphism data from 444 resequenced genomes of three avian clades spanning 50 million years of evolution, we tested whether population genetic summary statistics reflecting genomewide variation in N_e would covary among populations within clades, and importantly, also among clades where lineage sorting has been completed. All statistics including population‐scaled recombination rate (ρ), nucleotide diversity (π) and measures of genetic differentiation between populations (F_ST, PBS, d_xy) were significantly correlated across all phylogenetic distances. Moreover, genomic regions with elevated levels of genetic differentiation were associated with inferred pericentromeric and subtelomeric regions. The phylogenetic stability of diversity landscapes and stable association with genomic features support a role of linked selection not necessarily associated with adaptation and speciation in shaping patterns of genomewide heterogeneity in genetic diversity.     

Whole‐genome resequencing reveals the pleistocene temporal dynamics of Branchiostoma belcheri and Branchiostoma floridae populations

Global climatic fluctuations governed the ancestral demographic histories of species and contributed to place the current population status into a more extensive ecological and evolutionary context. Genetic variations will leave unambiguous signatures in the patterns of intraspecific genetic variation in extant species since the genome of each individual is an imperfect mosaic of the ancestral genomes. Here, we report the genome sequences of 20 Branchiostoma individuals by whole‐genome resequencing strategy. We detected over 140 million genomic variations for each Branchiostoma individual. In particular, we applied the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) method to estimate the trajectories of changes in the effective population size (N_e) of Branchiostoma population during the Pleistocene. We evaluated the threshold of sequencing depth for proper inference of demographic histories using PSMC was ≥25×. The PSMC results highlight the role of historical global climatic fluctuations in the long‐term population dynamics of Branchiostoma. The inferred ancestral N_e of the Branchiostoma belcheri populations from Zhanjiang and Xiamen (China) seawaters was different in amplitude before the first (mutation rate = 3 × 10^?9) or third glaciation (mutation rate = 9 × 10^?9) of the Pleistocene, indicating that the two populations most probably started to evolve in isolation in their respective seas after the first or third glaciation of the Pleistocene. A pronounced population bottleneck coinciding with the last glacial maximum was observed in all Branchiostoma individuals, followed by a population expansion occurred during the late Pleistocene. Species that have experienced long‐term declines may be especially vulnerable to recent anthropogenic activities. Recently, the industrial pollution and the exploitation of sea sand have destroyed the harmonious living environment of amphioxus species. In the future, we need to protect the habitat of Branchiostoma and make full use of these detected genetic variations to facilitate the functional study of Branchiostoma for adaptation to local environments.     

Post‐fragmentation population structure in a cooperative breeding Afrotropical cloud forest bird: emergence of a source‐sink population network

The impact of demographic parameters on the genetic population structure and viability of organisms is a long‐standing issue in the study of fragmented populations. Demographic and genetic tools are now readily available to estimate census and effective population sizes and migration and gene flow rates with increasing precision. Here we analysed the demography and genetic population structure over a recent 15‐year time span in five remnant populations of Cabanis's greenbul (Phyllastrephus cabanisi), a cooperative breeding bird in a severely fragmented cloud forest habitat. Contrary to our expectation, genetic admixture and effective population sizes slightly increased, rather than decreased between our two sampling periods. In spite of small effective population sizes in tiny forest remnants, none of the populations showed evidence of a recent population bottleneck. Approximate Bayesian modelling, however, suggested that differentiation of the populations coincided at least partially with an episode of habitat fragmentation. The ratio of meta‐N_e to meta‐N_c was relatively low for birds, which is expected for cooperative breeding species, while N_e/N_c ratios strongly varied among local populations. While the overall trend of increasing population sizes and genetic admixture may suggest that Cabanis's greenbuls increasingly cope with fragmentation, the time period over which these trends were documented is rather short relative to the average longevity of tropical species. Furthermore, the critically low N_c in the small forest remnants keep the species prone to demographic and environmental stochasticity, and it remains open if, and to what extent, its cooperative breeding behaviour helps to buffer such effects.     

PSMC analysis of effective population sizes in molecular ecology and its application to black‐and‐white Ficedula flycatchers

Climatic fluctuations during the Quaternary period governed the demography of species and contributed to population differentiation and ultimately speciation. Studies of these past processes have previously been hindered by a lack of means and genetic data to model changes in effective population size (N_e) through time. However, based on diploid genome sequences of high quality, the recently developed pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) can estimate trajectories of changes in N_e over considerable time periods. We applied this approach to resequencing data from nearly 200 genomes of four species and several populations of the Ficedula species complex of black‐and‐white flycatchers. N_e curves of Atlas, collared, pied and semicollared flycatcher converged 1–2 million years ago (Ma) at an N_e of ≈ 200 000, likely reflecting the time when all four species last shared a common ancestor. Subsequent separate N_e trajectories are consistent with lineage splitting and speciation. All species showed evidence of population growth up until 100–200 thousand years ago (kya), followed by decline and then start of a new phase of population expansion. However, timing and amplitude of changes in N_e differed among species, and for pied flycatcher, the temporal dynamics of N_e differed between Spanish birds and central/northern European populations. This cautions against extrapolation of demographic inference between lineages and calls for adequate sampling to provide representative pictures of the coalescence process in different species or populations. We also empirically evaluate criteria for proper inference of demographic histories using PSMC and arrive at recommendations of using sequencing data with a mean genome coverage of ≥18X, a per‐site filter of ≥10 reads and no more than 25% of missing data.     

Effective population size as a driver for divergence of an antimicrobial peptide (Hymenoptaecin) in two common European bumblebee species

Social insects are the target of numerous pathogens. This is because the high density of closely‐related individuals frequently interacting with each other enhances the transmission and establishment of pathogens. This high selective pressure results in the rapid evolution of immune genes, which might be counteracted by a reduced effective population size (N_e) lowering the effectiveness of selection. We tested the effect of N_e on the evolutionary rate of an important immune gene for the antimicrobial peptide Hymenoptaecin in two common central European bumblebee species: Bombus terrestris and Bombus lapidarius. Both species are similar in their biology and are expected to be under similar selective pressures because pathogen prevalence does not differ between species. However, previous studies indicated a higher N_e in B. terrestris compared to B. lapidarius. We found high intraspecific variability in the coding sequence but low variability for silent polymorphisms in B. lapidarius. Estimates of long‐ and short‐term N_e were three‐ to four‐fold higher N_e in B. terrestris, although the species did not differ in census population sizes. The difference in N_e might result in less efficient selection and suboptimal adaptation of immune genes (e.g. hymenoptaecin) in B. lapidarius, and thus this species might become less resistant and more tolerant, turning into a superspreader of diseases.     

Evidence for adaptive divergence of thermal responses among Bemisia tabaci populations from tropical Colombia following a recent invasion

There is an increasing evidence that populations of ectotherms can diverge genetically in response to different climatic conditions, both within their native range and (in the case of invasive species) in their new range. Here, we test for such divergence in invasive whitefly Bemisia tabaci populations in tropical Colombia, by considering heritable variation within and between populations in survival and fecundity under temperature stress, and by comparing population differences with patterns established from putatively neutral microsatellite markers. We detected significant differences among populations linked to mean temperature (for survival) and temperature variation (for fecundity) in local environments. A Q_ST ? F_ST analysis indicated that phenotypic divergence was often larger than neutral expectations (Q_ST > F_ST). Particularly, for survival after a sublethal heat shock, this divergence remained linked to the local mean temperature after controlling for neutral divergence. These findings point to rapid adaptation in invasive whitefly likely to contribute to its success as a pest species. Ongoing evolutionary divergence also provides challenges in predicting the likely impact of Bemisia in invaded regions.     

Are habitat fragmentation,local adaptation and isolation‐by‐distance driving population divergence in wild rice Oryza rufipogon?

Habitat fragmentation weakens the connection between populations and is accompanied with isolation by distance (IBD) and local adaptation (isolation by adaptation, IBA), both leading to genetic divergence between populations. To understand the evolutionary potential of a population and to formulate proper conservation strategies, information on the roles of IBD and IBA in driving population divergence is critical. The putative ancestor of Asian cultivated rice (Oryza sativa) is endangered in China due to habitat loss and fragmentation. We investigated the genetic variation in 11 Chinese Oryza rufipogon populations using 79 microsatellite loci to infer the effects of habitat fragmentation, IBD and IBA on genetic structure. Historical and current gene flows were found to be rare (m_h = 0.0002–0.0013, m_c = 0.007–0.029), indicating IBD and resulting in a high level of population divergence (F_ST = 0.343). High within‐population genetic variation (H_E = 0.377–0.515), relatively large effective population sizes (N_e = 96–158), absence of bottlenecks and limited gene flow were found, demonstrating little impact of recent habitat fragmentation on these populations. Eleven gene‐linked microsatellite loci were identified as outliers, indicating local adaptation. Hierarchical AMOVA and partial Mantel tests indicated that population divergence of Chinese O. rufipogon was significantly correlated with environmental factors, especially habitat temperature. Common garden trials detected a significant adaptive population divergence associated with latitude. Collectively, these findings imply that IBD due to historical rather than recent fragmentation, followed by local adaptation, has driven population divergence in O. rufipogon.     

Local adaptation and ecological differentiation under selection,migration, and drift in Arabidopsis lyrata*

How the balance between selection, migration, and drift influences the evolution of local adaptation has been under intense theoretical scrutiny. Yet, empirical studies that relate estimates of local adaptation to quantification of gene flow and effective population sizes have been rare. Here, we conducted a reciprocal transplant trial, a common garden trial, and a whole‐genome‐based demography analysis to examine these effects among Arabidopsis lyrata populations from two altitudinal gradients in Norway. Demography simulations indicated that populations within the two gradients are connected by gene flow (0.1 < 4N_em < 11) and have small effective population sizes (N_e < 6000), suggesting that both migration and drift can counteract local selection. However, the three‐year field experiments showed evidence of local adaptation at the level of hierarchical multiyear fitness, attesting to the strength of differential selection. In the lowland habitat, local superiority was associated with greater fecundity, while viability accounted for fitness differences in the alpine habitat. We also demonstrate that flowering time differentiation has contributed to adaptive divergence between these locally adapted populations. Our results show that despite the estimated potential of gene flow and drift to hinder differentiation, selection among these A. lyrata populations has resulted in local adaptation.     

Effects of population characteristics and structure on estimates of effective population size in a house sparrow metapopulation

Effective population size (N_e) is a key parameter to understand evolutionary processes and the viability of endangered populations as it determines the rate of genetic drift and inbreeding. Low N_e can lead to inbreeding depression and reduced population adaptability. In this study, we estimated contemporary N_e using genetic estimators (LDNE, ONeSAMP, MLNE and CoNe) as well as a demographic estimator in a natural insular house sparrow metapopulation. We investigated whether population characteristics (population size, sex ratio, immigration rate, variance in population size and population growth rate) explained variation within and among populations in the ratio of effective to census population size (N_e/N_c). In general, N_e/N_c ratios increased with immigration rates. Genetic N_e was much larger than demographic N_e, probably due to a greater effect of immigration on genetic than demographic processes in local populations. Moreover, although estimates of genetic N_e seemed to track N_c quite well, the genetic N_e‐estimates were often larger than N_c within populations. Estimates of genetic N_e for the metapopulation were however within the expected range (<N_c). Our results suggest that in fragmented populations, even low levels of gene flow may have important consequences for the interpretation of genetic estimates of N_e. Consequently, further studies are needed to understand how N_e estimated in local populations or the total metapopulation relates to actual rates of genetic drift and inbreeding.     

Geographical and temporal variation of multiple paternity in invasive mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki,Gambusia affinis)

Multiple paternity (MP) increases offspring's genetic variability, which could be linked to invasive species' evolvability in novel distribution ranges. Shifts in MP can be adaptive, with greater MP in harsher/colder environments or towards the end of the reproductive season, but climate could also affect MP indirectly via its effect on reproductive life histories. We tested these hypotheses by genotyping N = 2,903 offspring from N = 306 broods of two closely related livebearing fishes, Gambusia holbrooki and Gambusia affinis. We sampled pregnant females across latitudinal gradients in their invasive ranges in Europe and China, and found more sires per brood and a greater reproductive skew towards northern sampling sites. Moreover, examining monthly sampling from two G. affinis populations, we found MP rates to vary across the reproductive season in a northern Chinese, but not in a southern Chinese population. While our results confirm an increase of MP in harsher/more unpredictable environments, path analysis indicated that, in both cases, the effects of climate are likely to be indirect, mediated by altered life histories. In both species, which rank amongst the 100 most invasive species worldwide, higher MP at the northern edge of their distribution probably increases their invasive potential and favours range expansions, especially in light of the predicted temperature increases due to global climate changes.     

When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (N_e) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify the size and trend of stable or declining populations (true N = 100–10,000), using simulated Wright–Fisher populations. Neither method accurately or precisely estimated abundance at sample sizes of S = 30 individuals, regardless of true N. However, if larger samples of S = 60 or 120 individuals were collected, these methods provided useful insights into abundance and trends for populations of N = 100–500. At small population sizes (N = 100 or 250), precision of the N_e estimates was improved slightly more by a doubling of loci sampled than by a doubling of individuals sampled. In general, monitoring N_e proved a more robust means of identifying stable and declining populations than monitoring N over most of the parameter space we explored, and performance of the N_e estimator is further enhanced if the N_e/N ratio is low. However, at the largest population size (N = 10,000), N estimation outperformed N_e. Both methods generally required ≥ 5 generations to pass between sampling events to correctly identify population trend.     

Reconciling Genetic and Demographic Estimators of Effective Population Size in the Anuran Amphibian Bufo Calamita

We used genetic and demographic methods to estimate the variance effective population sizes (N _e) of three populations of natterjack toads Bufo calamita in Britain. This amphibian breeds in temporary pools where survival rates can vary among families. Census population sizes (N) were derived from spawn string counts. Point and coalescent-based maximum likelihood estimates of N _e based on microsatellite allele distributions were similar. N _e/N ratios based on genetic estimates of N _e ranged between 0.02 and 0.20. Mean demographic estimates of N _e were consistently higher (2.7–8.0-fold) than genetic estimates for all three populations when variance in breeding success was evaluated at the point where females no longer influence their progeny. However, discrepancies between genetic and demographic estimators could be removed by using a model that included extra variance in survivorship (above to Poisson expectations) among families. The implications of these results for the estimation of N _e in wild populations are discussed.     

A genetic demographic analysis of Lake Malawi rock‐dwelling cichlids using spatio‐temporal sampling

We estimated the effective population sizes (N_e) and tested for short‐term temporal demographic stability of populations of two Lake Malawi cichlids: Maylandia benetos, a micro‐endemic, and Maylandia zebra, a widespread species found across the lake. We sampled a total of 351 individuals, genotyped them at 13 microsatellite loci and sequenced their mitochondrial D‐loop to estimate genetic diversity, population structure, demographic history and effective population sizes. At the microsatellite loci, genetic diversity was high in all populations. Yet, genetic diversity was relatively low for the sequence data. Microsatellites yielded mean N_e estimates of 481 individuals (±99 SD) for M. benetos and between 597 (±106.3 SD) and 1524 (±483.9 SD) individuals for local populations of M. zebra. The microsatellite data indicated no deviations from mutation–drift equilibrium. Maylandia zebra was further found to be in migration–drift equilibrium. Temporal fluctuations in allele frequencies were limited across the sampling period for both species. Bayesian Skyline analyses suggested a recent expansion of M. zebra populations in line with lake‐level fluctuations, whereas the demographic history of M. benetos could only be estimated for the very recent past. Divergence time estimates placed the origin of M. benetos within the last 100 ka after the refilling of the lake and suggested that it split off the sympatric M. zebra population. Overall, our data indicate that micro‐endemics and populations in less favourable habitats have smaller N_e, indicating that drift may play an important role driving their divergence. Yet, despite small population sizes, high genetic variation can be maintained.     

Using genomic information for management planning of an endangered perennial,Viola uliginosa

Species occupying habitats subjected to frequent natural and/or anthropogenic changes are a challenge for conservation management. We studied one such species, Viola uliginosa, an endangered perennial wetland species typically inhabiting sporadically flooded meadows alongside rivers/lakes. In order to estimate genomic diversity, population structure, and history, we sampled five sites in Finland, three in Estonia, and one each in Slovenia, Belarus, and Poland using genomic SNP data with double‐digest restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD‐seq). We found monophyletic populations, high levels of inbreeding (mean population F_SNP = 0.407–0.945), low effective population sizes (N_e = 0.8–50.9), indications of past demographic expansion, and rare long‐distance dispersal. Our results are important in implementing conservation strategies for V. uliginosa, which should include founding of seed banks, ex situ cultivations, and reintroductions with individuals of proper origin, combined with continuous population monitoring and habitat management.     

Climate‐driven changes to the spatio‐temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode,Haemonchus contortus,in sheep in Europe

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio‐temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q₀, adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan‐European spatio‐temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q₀ simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within‐host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q₀ simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2–3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations.     

Loci under selection during multiple range expansions of an invasive plant are mostly population specific,but patterns are associated with climate

Identifying the genes underlying rapid evolutionary changes, describing their function and ascertaining the environmental pressures that determine fitness are the central elements needed for understanding of evolutionary processes and phenotypic changes that improve the fitness of populations. It has been hypothesized that rapid adaptive changes in new environments may contribute to the rapid spread and success of invasive plants and animals. As yet, studies of adaptation during invasion are scarce, as is knowledge of the genes underlying adaptation, especially in multiple replicated invasions. Here, we quantified how genotype frequencies change during invasions, resulting in rapid evolution of naturalized populations. We used six fully replicated common garden experiments in Brazil where Pinus taeda (loblolly pine) was introduced at the same time, in the same numbers, from the same seed sources, and has formed naturalized populations expanding outward from the plantations. We used a combination of nonparametric, population genetics and multivariate statistics to detect changes in genotype frequencies along each of the six naturalization gradients and their association with climate as well as shifts in allele frequencies compared to the source populations. Results show 25 genes with significant shifts in genotype frequencies. Six genes had shifts in more than one population. Climate explained 25% of the variation in the groups of genes under selection across all locations, but specific genes under strong selection during invasions did not show climate‐related convergence. In conclusion, we detected rapid evolutionary changes during invasive range expansions, but the particular gene‐level patterns of evolution may be population specific.     

Spatiotemporal genetic structure of anadromous Arctic char (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Salvelinus alpinus</Emphasis>) populations in a region experiencing pronounced climate change

We examined spatio-temporal genetic variation at 53 single nucleotide polymorphisms in anadromous Arctic char populations from Western Greenland, a region experiencing pronounced climate change. The study was based on contemporary and historical samples, the latter represented by DNA extracted from otoliths and scales from the 1950s–1960s. We investigated whether genetic population structure was temporarily stable or unstable, the latter due to relatively small spawning and nursery areas combined with a harsh Arctic environment. Furthermore, in order to evaluate the potential for adaptive responses and local adaptation we estimated effective population size (N_e) and migration rate (m). Temporal stability of genetic population structure was suggested, based on a hierarchical analysis of genetic differentiation showing much higher differentiation among samples from different populations (F_CT = 0.091) than among temporal samples from the same populations (F_SC = 0.01). This was further supported by a neighbor-joining tree and assignment of individuals that showed high contingency between historical and contemporary samples. Estimates of N_e were high (>?500) in three out of four populations, with a lower estimate in one population potentially reflecting fishing pressure or suboptimal environmental conditions. Estimates of m were in most cases low, ≤ 0.01. N_e and m estimates suggest a potential for adaptive responses and local adaptation. However, long generation time may also cause adaptive responses by microevolution to be unable to track climate change, especially considering the low migration rates that reduce potential evolutionary rescue by gene flow from populations better adapted to the altered environments.     

Effective size of density‐dependent two‐sex populations: the effect of mating systems

Density dependence in vital rates is a key feature affecting temporal fluctuations of natural populations. This has important implications for the rate of random genetic drift. Mating systems also greatly affect effective population sizes, but knowledge of how mating system and density regulation interact to affect random genetic drift is poor. Using theoretical models and simulations, we compare N_e in short‐lived, density‐dependent animal populations with different mating systems. We study the impact of a fluctuating, density‐dependent sex ratio and consider both a stable and a fluctuating environment. We find a negative relationship between annual N_e/N and adult population size N due to density dependence, suggesting that loss of genetic variation is reduced at small densities. The magnitude of this decrease was affected by mating system and life history. A male‐biased, density‐dependent sex ratio reduces the rate of genetic drift compared to an equal, density‐independent sex ratio, but a stochastic change towards male bias reduces the N_e/N ratio. Environmental stochasticity amplifies temporal fluctuations in population size and is thus vital to consider in estimation of effective population sizes over longer time periods. Our results on the reduced loss of genetic variation at small densities, particularly in polygamous populations, indicate that density regulation may facilitate adaptive evolution at small population sizes.     

Do estimates of contemporary effective population size tell us what we want to know?

Estimation of effective population size (N_e) from genetic marker data is a major focus for biodiversity conservation because it is essential to know at what rates inbreeding is increasing and additive genetic variation is lost. But are these the rates assessed when applying commonly used N_e estimation techniques? Here we use recently developed analytical tools and demonstrate that in the case of substructured populations the answer is no. This is because the following: Genetic change can be quantified in several ways reflecting different types of N_e such as inbreeding (N_eI), variance (N_eV), additive genetic variance (N_eAV), linkage disequilibrium equilibrium (N_eLD), eigenvalue (N_eE) and coalescence (N_eCo) effective size. They are all the same for an isolated population of constant size, but the realized values of these effective sizes can differ dramatically in populations under migration. Commonly applied N_e‐estimators target N_eV or N_eLD of individual subpopulations. While such estimates are safe proxies for the rates of inbreeding and loss of additive genetic variation under isolation, we show that they are poor indicators of these rates in populations affected by migration. In fact, both the local and global inbreeding (N_eI) and additive genetic variance (N_eAV) effective sizes are consistently underestimated in a subdivided population. This is serious because these are the effective sizes that are relevant to the widely accepted 50/500 rule for short and long term genetic conservation.  The bias can be infinitely large and is due to inappropriate parameters being estimated when applying theory for isolated populations to subdivided ones.