A socio‐ecological model for predicting impacts of land‐use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps

Climate and land‐use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent‐based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine‐grained land‐use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land‐use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio‐economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land‐use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land‐use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land‐use changes because alternative future socio‐economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land‐use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land‐use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi‐natural habitat. We conclude that agent‐based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts.     

Synergistic and antagonistic effects of land use and non‐native species on community responses to climate change

Climate change, land‐use change and introductions of non‐native species are key determinants of biodiversity change worldwide. However, the extent to which anthropogenic drivers of environmental change interact to affect biological communities is largely unknown, especially over longer time periods. Here, we show that plant community composition in 996 Swedish landscapes has consistently shifted to reflect the warmer and wetter climate that the region has experienced during the second half of the 20th century. Using community climatic indices, which reflect the average climatic associations of the species within each landscape at each time period, we found that species compositions in 74% of landscapes now have a higher representation of warm‐associated species than they did previously, while 84% of landscapes now host more species associated with higher levels of precipitation. In addition to a warmer and wetter climate, there have also been large shifts in land use across the region, while the fraction of non‐native species has increased in the majority of landscapes. Climatic warming at the landscape level appeared to favour the colonization of warm‐associated species, while also potentially driving losses in cool‐associated species. However, the resulting increases in community thermal means were apparently buffered by landscape simplification (reduction in habitat heterogeneity within landscapes) in the form of increased forest cover. Increases in non‐native species, which generally originate from warmer climates than Sweden, were a strong driver of community‐level warming. In terms of precipitation, both landscape simplification and increases in non‐natives appeared to favour species associated with drier climatic conditions, to some extent counteracting the climate‐driven shift towards wetter communities. Anthropogenic drivers can act both synergistically and antagonistically to determine trajectories of change in biological communities over time. Therefore, it is important to consider multiple drivers of global change when trying to understand, manage and predict biodiversity in the future.     

Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming

Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high‐intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully ‘tracking’ climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm‐ and cold‐associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold‐associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm‐associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting ‘adaptive’ community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high‐intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold‐adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm‐associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation.     

Predicting potential responses to future climate in an alpine ungulate: interspecific interactions exceed climate effects

The altitudinal shifts of many montane populations are lagging behind climate change. Understanding habitual, daily behavioural rhythms, and their climatic and environmental influences, could shed light on the constraints on long‐term upslope range‐shifts. In addition, behavioural rhythms can be affected by interspecific interactions, which can ameliorate or exacerbate climate‐driven effects on ecology. Here, we investigate the relative influences of ambient temperature and an interaction with domestic sheep (Ovis aries) on the altitude use and activity budgets of a mountain ungulate, the Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra). Chamois moved upslope when it was hotter but this effect was modest compared to that of the presence of sheep, to which they reacted by moving 89–103 m upslope, into an entirely novel altitudinal range. Across the European Alps, a range‐shift of this magnitude corresponds to a 46% decrease in the availability of suitable foraging habitat. This highlights the importance of understanding how factors such as competition and disturbance shape a given species’ realised niche when predicting potential future responses to change. Furthermore, it exposes the potential for manipulations of species interactions to ameliorate the impacts of climate change, in this case by the careful management of livestock. Such manipulations could be particularly appropriate for species where competition or disturbance already strongly restricts their available niche. Our results also reveal the potential role of behavioural flexibility in responses to climate change. Chamois reduced their activity when it was warmer, which could explain their modest altitudinal migrations. Considering this behavioural flexibility, our model predicts a small 15–30 m upslope shift by 2100 in response to climate change, less than 4% of the altitudinal shift that would be predicted using a traditional species distribution model‐type approach (SDM), which assumes that species’ behaviour remains unchanged as climate changes. Behavioural modifications could strongly affect how species respond to a changing climate.     

Alien and native plants show contrasting responses to climate and land use in Europe

Aim We tested whether the distribution and cover of alien plant species in Europe was related to human disturbance and microclimate. Location Surveys were conducted at 13 sites across Europe, each containing a pair of landscapes with different land‐use intensities. Methods Sampling locations were chosen based on land use and microclimate at two scales: land use was characterized at the patch and landscape scale; climate was expressed as regional and local temperature. The slope of each sample location was derived from a digital elevation model. Cover of plant species was measured using point counts and analysed using mixed effect models. Species were classified as native, archaeophytes and neophytes (pre‐ versus post‐ad 1500 immigrants). Due to the zero inflation observed in the alien groups, their cover was analysed conditional on their presence. Results Anthropogenic disturbance was a significant explanatory variable, increasing the presence and cover of alien species and decreasing the cover of native species. Alien presence was increased in sites under agricultural management, while their cover responded to land use at both local and landscape scales (and to their interaction), such that only natural habitats in semi‐natural landscapes had low alien cover. Microclimate was important for neophytes, with presence concentrated around mesic conditions. Slope was relevant for archaeophytes and native species, suppressing the former group and promoting the latter one. Main conclusions We found that, at the European scale, the distribution of alien plants is related to anthropogenic disturbance more than to microclimatic differences. The presence of neophytes, however, was influenced by climate at local and regional scales, with the highest incidence under mesic conditions. The different patterns observed for the presence and cover of alien species suggest different mechanisms acting during their establishment and spread. They also suggest that to counteract the expansion of alien species natural habitats may need to be maintained at landscape scales.     

Contrasting habitat use of morphologically similar bat species with differing conservation status in south‐eastern Australia

The east‐coast free‐tailed bat Mormopterus norfolkensis Gray, 1839 is a threatened insectivorous bat that is poorly known and as such conservation management strategies are only broadly prescribed. Insectivorous bats that use human‐modified landscapes are often adapted to foraging in open microhabitats. However, few studies have explored whether open‐adapted bats select landscapes with more of these microhabitat features. We compared three morphologically similar and sympatric, molossid bats (genus Mormopterus) with different conservation status in terms of their association with vegetation, climate, landform and land‐use attributes at landscape and local habitat element scales. We predicted that these species would use similar landscape types, with semi‐cleared and low density urban landscapes used more than forested and heavily cleared landscapes. Additionally, we explored which environmental variables best explained the occurrence of each species by constructing post‐hoc models and habitat suitability maps. Contrary to predictions, we found that the three species varied in their habitat use with no one landscape type used more extensively than other types. Overall, M. norfolkensis was more likely to occur in low‐lying, non‐urban, riparian habitats with little vegetation cover. Mormopterus species 2 occupied similar habitats, but was more tolerant of urban landscapes. In contrast, Mormopterus species 4 occurred more often in cleared than forested landscapes, particularly dry landscapes with little vegetation cover. The extensive use of coastal floodplains by the threatened M. norfolkensis is significant because these habitats are under increasing pressure from human land‐uses and the predicted increase in urbanization is likely to further reduce the amount of suitable habitat.     

Intraspecific trait variation across elevation predicts a widespread tree species' climate niche and range limits

Global change is widely altering environmental conditions which makes accurately predicting species range limits across natural landscapes critical for conservation and management decisions. If climate pressures along elevation gradients influence the distribution of phenotypic and genetic variation of plant functional traits, then such trait variation may be informative of the selective mechanisms and adaptations that help define climatic niche limits. Using extensive field surveys along 16 elevation transects and a large common garden experiment, we tested whether functional trait variation could predict the climatic niche of a widespread tree species (Populus angustifolia) with a double quantile regression approach. We show that intraspecific variation in plant size, growth, and leaf morphology corresponds with the species' total climate range and certain climatic limits related to temperature and moisture extremes. Moreover, we find evidence of genetic clines and phenotypic plasticity at environmental boundaries, which we use to create geographic predictions of trait variation and maximum values due to climatic constraints across the western US. Overall, our findings show the utility of double quantile regressions for connecting species distributions and climate gradients through trait‐based mechanisms. We highlight how new approaches like ours that incorporate genetic variation in functional traits and their response to climate gradients will lead to a better understanding of plant distributions as well as identifying populations anticipated to be maladapted to future environments.     

Leaf‐trait plasticity and species vulnerability to climate change in a Mongolian steppe

Climate change is expected to modify plant assemblages in ways that will have major consequences for ecosystem functions. How climate change will affect community composition will depend on how individual species respond, which is likely related to interspecific differences in functional traits. The extraordinary plasticity of some plant traits is typically neglected in assessing how climate change will affect different species. In the Mongolian steppe, we examined whether leaf functional traits under ambient conditions and whether plasticity in these traits under altered climate could explain climate‐induced biomass responses in 12 co‐occurring plant species. We experimentally created three probable climate change scenarios and used a model selection procedure to determine the set of baseline traits or plasticity values that best explained biomass response. Under all climate change scenarios, plasticity for at least one leaf trait correlated with change in species performance, while functional leaf‐trait values in ambient conditions did not. We demonstrate that trait plasticity could play a critical role in vulnerability of species to a rapidly changing environment. Plasticity should be considered when examining how climate change will affect plant performance, species' niche spaces, and ecological processes that depend on plant community composition.     

Land‐use history and fragmentation of traditionally managed grasslands in Scandinavia

Abstract. Plants associated with traditional agricultural landscapes in northern Europe and Scandinavia are subjected to drastic habitat fragmentation. In this paper we discuss species response to fragmentation, against a background of vegetation and land‐use history. Recent evidence suggests that grassland‐forest mosaics have been prevalent long before the onset of human agriculture. We suggest that the creation of infield meadows and outland grazing (during the Iron Age) increased the amount and spatial predictability of grasslands, resulting in plant communities with exceptionally high species densities. Thus, distribution of plant species in the present‐day landscape reflects historical land‐use. This holds also when traditional management has ceased, due to a slow response by many species to abandonment and fragmentation. The distribution patterns are thus not in equilibrium with the present habitat distribution. Fragmentation influences remaining semi‐natural grasslands such that species density is likely to decline as a result of local extinctions and invasion by habitat generalists. However, species that for a long time have been subjected to changing mosaic landscapes may be more resistant to fragmentation than is usually believed. Conservation should focus not only on ‘hot‐spots’ with high species richness, but also consider species dynamics in a landscape context.     

Combining point‐process and landscape vegetation models to predict large herbivore distributions in space and time—A case study of Rupicapra rupicapra

Aim

When modelling the distribution of animals under current and future conditions, both their response to environmental constraints and their resources’ response to these environmental constraints need to be taken into account. Here, we develop a framework to predict the distribution of large herbivores under global change, while accounting for changes in their main resources. We applied it to Rupicapra rupicapra, the chamois of the European Alps.

Location

The Bauges Regional Park (French Alps).

Methods

We built sixteen plant functional groups (PFGs) that account for the chamois’ diet (estimated from sequenced environmental DNA found in the faeces), climatic requirements, dispersal limitations, successional stage and interaction for light. These PFGs were then simulated using a dynamic vegetation model, under current and future climatic conditions up to 2100. Finally, we modelled the spatial distribution of the chamois under both current and future conditions using a point‐process model applied to either climate‐only variables or climate and simulated vegetation structure variables.

Results

Both the climate‐only and the climate and vegetation models successfully predicted the current distribution of the chamois species. However, when applied into the future, the predictions differed widely. While the climate‐only models predicted an 80% decrease in total species occupancy, including vegetation structure and plant resources for chamois in the model provided more optimistic predictions because they account for the transient dynamics of the vegetation (?20% in species occupancy).

Main conclusions

Applying our framework to the chamois shows that the inclusion of ecological mechanisms (i.e., plant resources) produces more realistic predictions under current conditions and should prove useful for anticipating future impacts. We have shown that discounting the pure effects of vegetation on chamois might lead to overpessimistic predictions under climate change. Our approach paves the way for improved synergies between different fields to produce biodiversity scenarios.

     

Tree demography suggests multiple directions and drivers for species range shifts in mountains of Northeastern United States

Climate change is expected to lead to upslope shifts in tree species distributions, but the evidence is mixed partly due to land‐use effects and individualistic species responses to climate. We examined how individual tree species demography varies along elevational climatic gradients across four states in the northeastern United States to determine whether species elevational distributions and their potential upslope (or downslope) shifts were controlled by climate, land‐use legacies (past logging), or soils. We characterized tree demography, microclimate, land‐use legacies, and soils at 83 sites stratified by elevation (~500 to ~1200 m above sea level) across 12 mountains containing the transition from northern hardwood to spruce‐fir forests. We modeled elevational distributions of tree species saplings and adults using logistic regression to test whether sapling distributions suggest ongoing species range expansion upslope (or contraction downslope) relative to adults, and we used linear mixed models to determine the extent to which climate, land use, and soil variables explain these distributions. Tree demography varied with elevation by species, suggesting a potential upslope shift only for American beech, downslope shifts for red spruce (more so in cool regions) and sugar maple, and no change with elevation for balsam fir. While soils had relatively minor effects, climate was the dominant predictor for most species and more so for saplings than adults of red spruce, sugar maple, yellow birch, cordate birch, and striped maple. On the other hand, logging legacies were positively associated with American beech, sugar maple, and yellow birch, and negatively with red spruce and balsam fir – generally more so for adults than saplings. All species exhibited individualistic rather than synchronous demographic responses to climate and land use, and the return of red spruce to lower elevations where past logging originally benefited northern hardwood species indicates that land use may mask species range shifts caused by changing climate.     

Ungulate browsers promote herbaceous layer diversity in logged temperate forests

Ungulates are leading drivers of plant communities worldwide, with impacts linked to animal density, disturbance and vegetation structure, and site productivity. Many ecosystems have more than one ungulate species; however, few studies have specifically examined the combined effects of two or more species on plant communities. We examined the extent to which two ungulate browsers (moose [Alces americanus]) and white‐tailed deer [Odocoileus virginianus]) have additive (compounding) or compensatory (opposing) effects on herbaceous layer composition and diversity, 5–6 years after timber harvest in Massachusetts, USA. We established three combinations of ungulates using two types of fenced exclosures – none (full exclosure), deer (partial exclosure), and deer + moose (control) in six replicated blocks. Species composition diverged among browser treatments, and changes were generally additive. Plant assemblages characteristic of closed canopy forests were less abundant and assemblages characteristic of open/disturbed habitats were more abundant in deer + moose plots compared with ungulate excluded areas. Browsing by deer + moose resulted in greater herbaceous species richness at the plot scale (169 m²) and greater woody species richness at the subplot scale (1 m²) than ungulate exclusion and deer alone. Browsing by deer + moose resulted in strong changes to the composition, structure, and diversity of forest herbaceous layers, relative to areas free of ungulates and areas browed by white‐tailed deer alone. Our results provide evidence that moderate browsing in forest openings can promote both herbaceous and woody plant diversity. These results are consistent with the classic grazing‐species richness curve, but have rarely been documented in forests.     

Land‐use and climate change effects on population size and extinction risk of Andean plants

Andean plant species are predicted to shift their distributions, or ‘migrate,’ upslope in response to future warming. The impacts of these shifts on species' population sizes and their abilities to persist in the face of climate change will depend on many factors including the distribution of individuals within species' ranges, the ability of species to migrate and remain at equilibrium with climate, and patterns of human land‐use. Human land‐use may be especially important in the Andes where anthropogenic activities above tree line may create a hard barrier to upward migrations, imperiling high‐elevation Andean biodiversity. In order to better understand how climate change may impact the Andean biodiversity hotspot, we predict the distributional responses of hundreds of plant species to changes in temperature incorporating population density distributions, migration rates, and patterns of human land‐use. We show that plant species from high Andean forests may increase their population sizes if able to migrate onto the expansive land areas above current tree line. However, if the pace of climate change exceeds species' abilities to migrate, all species will experience large population losses and consequently may face high risk of extinction. Using intermediate migration rates consistent with those observed for the region, most species are still predicted to experience population declines. Under a business‐as‐usual land‐use scenario, we find that all species will experience large population losses regardless of migration rate. The effect of human land‐use is most pronounced for high‐elevation species that switch from predicted increases in population sizes to predicted decreases. The overriding influence of land‐use on the predicted responses of Andean species to climate change can be viewed as encouraging since there is still time to initiate conservation programs that limit disturbances and/or facilitate the upward migration and persistence of Andean plant species.     

Projected climate and land use change alter western blacklegged tick phenology,seasonal host‐seeking suitability and human encounter risk in California

Global environmental change is having profound effects on the ecology of infectious disease systems, which are widely anticipated to become more pronounced under future climate and land use change. Arthropod vectors of disease are particularly sensitive to changes in abiotic conditions such as temperature and moisture availability. Recent research has focused on shifting environmental suitability for, and geographic distribution of, vector species under projected climate change scenarios. However, shifts in seasonal activity patterns, or phenology, may also have dramatic consequences for human exposure risk, local vector abundance and pathogen transmission dynamics. Moreover, changes in land use are likely to alter human–vector contact rates in ways that models of changing climate suitability are unlikely to capture. Here we used climate and land use projections for California coupled with seasonal species distribution models to explore the response of the western blacklegged tick (Ixodes pacificus), the primary Lyme disease vector in western North America, to projected climate and land use change. Specifically, we investigated how environmental suitability for tick host‐seeking changes seasonally, how the magnitude and direction of changing seasonal suitability differs regionally across California, and how land use change shifts human tick‐encounter risk across the state. We found vector responses to changing climate and land use vary regionally within California under different future scenarios. Under a hotter, drier scenario and more extreme land use change, the duration and extent of seasonal host‐seeking activity increases in northern California, but declines in the south. In contrast, under a hotter, wetter scenario seasonal host‐seeking declines in northern California, but increases in the south. Notably, regardless of future scenario, projected increases in developed land adjacent to current human population centers substantially increase potential human–vector encounter risk across the state. These results highlight regional variability and potential nonlinearity in the response of disease vectors to environmental change.     

Behaviour‐driven micro‐scale niche differentiation in carabid beetles

Carabid beetles form rich and abundant communities in arable landscapes. Their generalist feeding behaviour and similar environmental requirements raise questions about the mechanisms allowing the coexistence of such species‐rich assemblages. We hypothesized that subtle niche partitioning comes into play on spatial, temporal, or trophic basis. To test this, we performed experiments and made observations on the behaviour of two sympatric carabid species of similar size and life cycle, Bembidion quadrimaculatum L. and Phyla obtusa Audinet‐Serville (both Coleoptera: Carabidae: Bembidiini). We compared plant climbing behaviour, daily activity patterns, and trophic preferences between the two carabid species under laboratory conditions. Whereas no clear difference in trophic preference was observed, our results suggest temporal niche differentiation at the nychthemeron scale (a period of 24 consecutive hours), with one of the species being more diurnal and the other more nocturnal, and spatial differentiation in their habitat use at the plant stratum scale. Intra‐specific variation suggests that micro‐scale spatio‐temporal niche differentiation could be mediated by behavioural plasticity in these two carabid species. We speculate that such behavioural plasticity may provide carabid beetles with a high adaptive potential in intensively managed agricultural areas.     

Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change

Climate is a potent selective force in natural populations, yet the importance of adaptation in the response of plant species to past climate change has been questioned. As many species are unlikely to migrate fast enough to track the rapidly changing climate of the future, adaptation must play an increasingly important role in their response. In this paper we review recent work that has documented climate‐related genetic diversity within populations or on the microgeographical scale. We then describe studies that have looked at the potential evolutionary responses of plant populations to future climate change. We argue that in fragmented landscapes, rapid climate change has the potential to overwhelm the capacity for adaptation in many plant populations and dramatically alter their genetic composition. The consequences are likely to include unpredictable changes in the presence and abundance of species within communities and a reduction in their ability to resist and recover from further environmental perturbations, such as pest and disease outbreaks and extreme climatic events. Overall, a range‐wide increase in extinction risk is likely to result. We call for further research into understanding the causes and consequences of the maintenance and loss of climate‐related genetic diversity within populations.     

Emergence patterns of novelty in European vegetation assemblages over the past 15 000 years

Plant communities are not stable over time and biological novelty is predicted to emerge due to climate change, the introduction of exotic species and land‐use change. However, the rate at which this novelty may arise over longer time periods has so far received little attention. We reconstruct the emergence of novelty in Europe for a set of baseline conditions over the past 15 000 years to assess past rates of emergence and investigate underlying causes. The emergence of novelty is baseline specific and, during the early‐Holocene, was mitigated by the rapid spread of plant taxa. Although novelty generally increases as a function of time, climate and human‐induced landscape changes contributed to a non‐linear post‐glacial trajectory of novelty with jumps corresponding to periods of rapid changes. Emergence of novelty accelerated during the past 1000 years. Historical cultural landscapes experienced a faster novelty development due to the contribution from anthropogenic land‐cover changes.     

Modelling the impact of climate and land use change on the geographical distribution of leaf anatomy in a temperate flora

Variation in plant functional traits has been related to variation in environmental conditions. In particular, the relationship between leaf traits and climate has received much attention. This paper presents a functional‐trait‐centred approach to identify potential impacts of climate and land use change on plant species assemblages. Using species atlas data, we modelled the relative frequencies of species with different leaf anatomies (LARF) as a function of observed climate and land use data on a regular spatial grid across Germany. Subsequently, we projected the geographical distribution of LARF with simulated climate and land use data for the late 21st century under two future scenarios. We used a conditional autoregressive regression model to account for spatially structured variation in LARF that remained unexplained by the environmental factors considered. We found a clear relationship between the climatic gradient of water availability and shifts in LARF: increasing water deficit was associated with a decreasing proportion of species with hygromorphic leaves in the composition and increasing proportions of species with scleromorphic and mesomorphic leaves. The variation in LARF due to land use was only small. Under future environmental scenarios the proportion of species with hygromorphic leaves was projected to decrease in all parts of Germany, whereas the proportions of species with sclero‐ and mesomorphic leaves were projected to increase on average. In particular, Germany's south‐western and north‐eastern areas were projected to experience functional change in LARF. Our study highlights the relationship between functional traits and plant species vulnerability to climate change. Our results suggest that the functional‐trait‐centred approach can provide a powerful additional modelling tool to estimate potential impacts of climate change on plant species assemblages.     

Contrasting Effects of Climate Change on Alpine Chamois

Global climate change can affect animal ecology in numerous ways, but researchers usually emphasize undesirable consequences. Temperature increases, for instance, can induce direct physiological costs and indirect effects via mismatches in resource needs and availability. Species living in mountainous regions, however, could experience beneficial effects because winters might become less severe. We examined the potentially opposing effects of climate change during spring, summer, and winter on recruitment in Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra). We examined initial recruitment (i.e., the ratio of kids to adult females) and net recruitment (i.e., the ratio of yearlings to adult females) of Alpine chamois through the use of linear mixed effects models and data from block count censuses performed across a 1,500-km² study area in the Italian Alps during summer from 2001 to 2015. Initial recruitment was relatively resistant to the effects of climate change, declining slightly over the study period. We suggest that the effects of increased forage availability and lower snow cover in winter may benefit the reproductive output of adult females, compensating for any negative effects of trophic mismatch and higher temperatures during summer. By contrast, net recruitment strongly declined throughout the study period, consistent with the slight decline of initial recruitment and the negative effects of increasing summer temperatures on the survival of kids during their first winter. These negative effects seemed to outweigh positive effects of climate change, even in a species strongly challenged by winter conditions. These findings provide important information for hunted populations; setting more appropriate hunting bags for yearling chamois should be considered. The ecological plasticity of the chamois, which also inhabits low altitudes, may allow a possible evolutionary escape for the species. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Use of indigenous ecological knowledge of the Maasai pastoralists for assessing rangeland biodiversity in Tanzania

This paper incorporates the indigenous ecological knowledge (IEK) of the Maasai pastoralists and ecological methods to assess effects of grazing and cropping on rangeland biodiversity at macro‐ and micro‐landscape scales in northern Tanzania. The joint surveys with pastoralists identified indicator plant species and their associations with micro‐landscapes and livestock grazing suitability (i.e. for cattle and small ruminant grazing), while traditional calf‐pasture reserves (alalili pl. alalilia) were evaluated for preservation of rangeland biodiversity. The macro‐landscapes comprising the cool high plateau (osupuko pl. isipuki) and montane forest highland (endim) were included in the survey. At micro‐landscape scales, the osupuko was classified into uplands (orkung'u), slopes (andamata) and dry valley bottomlands (ayarata). The micro‐landscapes were assessed in terms of herbaceous plant species and woody species richness and risks of soil erosion. Biodiversity varied at both the macro‐ and micro‐landscape scales and in accordance with the land‐use types. Greater plant species diversity and less erosion risks were found in the pastoral landscapes than in the agro‐pastoral landscapes. The calf‐grazing pastures had greater herbaceous species richness than the non‐calf pastures, which in turn had more woody species. The study concludes that the indigenous systems of landscape classification provides a valuable basis for assessing rangeland biodiversity, which ecologists should incorporate into ecological surveys of the rangelands in East Africa in the future.