气候变化和人类活动对中国北方旱区植被变绿的定量贡献

气候变化和大规模的生态恢复使中国北方旱区植被发生了显著变化,量化气候变化和人类活动对植被动态的相对贡献,对于旱区生态系统管理和应对未来气候变化具有重要意义。目前,中国北方旱区植被变化影响因素的时间动态（2000年大规模生态恢复工程实施前后）和空间异质性（沿干旱梯度）仍需进一步的定量研究。基于多源数据,采用趋势分析、偏相关分析和随机森林模型等方法,分析了1981-2018年中国北方旱区气候和植被的时空变化规律,量化了2000年前后气候变化和人类活动对植被动态的相对贡献并分析其在干旱梯度上的空间差异性。结果表明：（1）1981-2018年期间,中国北方旱区的叶面积指数（LAI）平均增加速率为（0.0037±0.0443） a^-1,且增加速率沿干旱梯度增大。2000年前仅10.46%（P<0.05）的地区显著变绿,而2000年后达到36.84%,且植被变绿主要归因于非树木植被。（2）2000年后降水对植被变绿的正效应在不同干旱梯度均增加,而在半干旱区和亚湿润干旱区,温度对植被变绿由正向促进转为负向抑制,而辐射在干旱区由负效应转向正效应。（3）2000年前后,气候变化均主导着植被的动态,贡献率分别为96.07%和73.72%,人类活动的贡献在2000年后进一步增强（从3.93%增加到26.28%）,且沿着干旱梯度而增加,其中人类活动对植被变绿的贡献在半干旱地区增加最显著（+0.0289 m² m^-2 a^-1,P<0.05）。研究结果可为未来气候变化下中国北方旱区的植被恢复和可持续发展提供科学依据。     

中国东北样带(NECT):十年集成与未来挑战

Northeast China Transect (NECT), one of the fifteen International Biosphere-Geosphere Programme (IGBP) terrestrial transects, has been established for 10 years by Prof. Zhang Xin-Shi, through a core project of the IGBP - the Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE). This transect is located in the mid-latitude semi-arid region, ranging 42-46°N latitude and 110-132癊 longitude. The primary driving force for global change is precipitation and the secondary one is land use intensity. Research progresses have been performed during the past decade in the following aspects: ecological database development, climate and its variability, ecophysiological response of plants to environments, vegetation and landscape changes, biodiversity patterns and their changes, plant functional types and traits with relation to climatic gradient, productivity and carbon dynamics, pollen-vegetation relationship, trace gas emissions, land use and land cover changes, as well as biogeographical and biogeochemical modelling. In order to achieve the higher level of integrated research, the NECT needs the consistent basic data sets within the same framework, further field experiments and observations, integrated simulations of vegetation structure, process and function from patch, landscape to biome scales, intercomparisons of results and simulations within the transect and to other IGBP transects, multidisciplinary research, national and international co-ordinates, and full scientific plan and implementation strategy.     

Implications of CO2 fertilization for future climate change in a coupled climate–carbon model

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in determining levels of atmospheric CO₂ that result from anthropogenic carbon emissions. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ is thought to stimulate terrestrial carbon uptake, through the process of CO₂ fertilization of vegetation productivity. This negative carbon cycle feedback results in reduced atmospheric CO₂ growth, and has likely accounted for a substantial portion of the historical terrestrial carbon sink. However, the future strength of CO₂ fertilization in response to continued carbon emissions and atmospheric CO₂ rise is highly uncertain. In this paper, the ramifications of CO₂ fertilization in simulations of future climate change are explored, using an intermediate complexity coupled climate–carbon model. It is shown that the absence of future CO₂ fertilization results in substantially higher future CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, as this removes the dominant contributor to future terrestrial carbon uptake in the model. As a result, climate changes are larger, though the radiative effect of higher CO₂ on surface temperatures in the model is offset by about 30% due to reduced positive dynamic vegetation feedbacks; that is, the removal of CO₂ fertilization results in less vegetation expansion in the model, which would otherwise constitute an important positive surface albedo‐temperature feedback. However, the effect of larger climate changes has other important implications for the carbon cycle – notably to further weaken remaining carbon sinks in the model. As a result, positive climate–carbon cycle feedbacks are larger when CO₂ fertilization is absent. This creates an interesting synergism of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, whereby positive (climate–carbon cycle) feedbacks are amplified when a negative (CO₂ fertilization) feedback is removed.     

中国东北样带（NECT）：十年集成与未来挑战

作为“国际地圈-生物圈计划(IGBP)”的15条陆地样带之一,中国东北样带(Northeast China Transect,NECT)在IGBP核心项目“全球变化与陆地生态系统(GCTE)”中已经建立10年之久。该样带位于中纬度温带半干旱地区,跨越北纬42~46,东经110~132,其主要全球变化驱动因素为降水,次要驱动因素为土地利用强度。在过去的10年里,中国东北样带的研究进展表现在以下几个方面:生态数据库发展、气候及其变异性、植物对环境的生态生理响应、植被和景观变化、生物多样性格局及其变化、植物功能型和植物性状及气候梯度分析、生产力和碳动态、花粉-植被相互关系、痕量气体放散、土地利用和土地覆盖变化以及生物地理和生物地球化学模拟。为达到更高水平的集成研究,中国东北样带今后需要:统一框架下的坚实的基础数据集、进一步的野外实验和观测、从斑块、景观到生物群区尺度的植被结构、过程和功能的集成模拟、样带内和与其他IGBP样带研究结果的相互比较、多学科交叉研究、国内和国际协作以及完整的科学计划和实施对策。     

Succession May Maintain High Leaf Area: Sapwood Ratios and Productivity in OldSubalpine Forests

Old forests are generally believed to exhibit low net primary productivity (NPP) and therefore to be insignificant carbon sinks. This relationship between age and NPP is based, in part, on the hypothesis that the biomass of respiratory tissues such as sapwood increases with age to a point where all photosynthate is required just to maintain existing tissue. However, this theoretical connection between respiration:assimilation ratios and forest productivity is based on age-dependent trends in the sapwood:leaf ratios of individual trees and even-aged stands; it does not take into account such processes in natural forests as disproportional increases in shade-tolerant species over time and multiple-age cohorts. Ignoring succession and structural complexity may lead to large underestimates of the productivity of old forests and inaccurate estimates of the ages at which forest productivity declines. To address this problem, we compared biomass allocation and productivity between whitebark pine, a shade-intolerant, early-successional tree species, and subalpine fir, a shade-tolerant, late-successional species, by harvesting 14 whitebark pines and nine subalpine firs that varied widely in dbh and calculating regression models for dbh vs annual productivity and biomass allocation to leaves, sapwood, and heartwood. Late-successional subalpine fir allocated almost twice as much biomass to leaves as early-successional whitebark pine. Subalpine firs also had a much lower allocation to sapwood and higher growth rates across all tree sizes. We then modeled biomass allocation and productivity for 12 natural stands in western Montana that were dominated by subalpine fir and whitebark pine varying in age from 67 to 458 years by applying the regressions to all trees in each stand. Whole-stand sapwood:leaf ratios and stand productivity increased asymptotically with age. Sapwood:leaf ratios and productivity of whitebark pine in these stands increased for approximately 200–300 years and then decreased slowly over the next 200 years. In contrast, sapwood:leaf ratios of all sizes of subalpine fir were lower than those of pine and productivity was higher. As stands shifted in dominance from pine to fir with age, subalpine fir appeared to maintain gradually increasing rates of whole-forest productivity until stands were approximately 400 years old. These results suggest that forests such as these may continue to sequester carbon for centuries. If shade-tolerant species that predominate late in succession maintain high assimilation-to-respiration ratios in other forests, we may be underestimating production in old forests, and current models may underestimate the importance of mature forests as carbon sinks for atmospheric CO₂ in the global carbon cycle. Received 16 February 1999; accepted 24 November 1999.     

The likely impact of elevated [CO2], nitrogen deposition, increased temperature and management on carbon sequestration in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems: a literature review

Temperate and boreal forest ecosystems contain a large part of the carbon stored on land, in the form of both biomass and soil organic matter. Increasing atmospheric [CO2], increasing temperature, elevated nitrogen deposition and intensified management will change this C store. Well documented single-factor responses of net primary production are: higher photosynthetic rate (the main [CO2] response); increasing length of growing season (the main temperature response); and higher leaf-area index (the main N deposition and partly [CO2] response). Soil organic matter will increase with increasing litter input, although priming may decrease the soil C stock initially, but litter quality effects should be minimal (response to [CO2], N deposition, and temperature); will decrease because of increasing temperature; and will increase because of retardation of decomposition with N deposition, although the rate of decomposition of high-quality litter can be increased and that of low-quality litter decreased. Single-factor responses can be misleading because of interactions between factors, in particular those between N and other factors, and indirect effects such as increased N availability from temperature-induced decomposition. In the long term the strength of feedbacks, for example the increasing demand for N from increased growth, will dominate over short-term responses to single factors. However, management has considerable potential for controlling the C store.     

Elevated CO2 and temperature alter nitrogen allocation in Douglas-fir

The effects of elevated CO₂ and temperature on principal carbon constituents (PCC) and C and N allocation between needle, woody (stem and branches) and root tissue of Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. Franco seedlings were determined. The seedlings were grown in sun‐lit controlled‐environment chambers that contained a native soil. Chambers were controlled to reproduce ambient or ambient +180 ppm CO₂ and either ambient temperature or ambient +3.5 °C for 4 years. There were no significant CO₂ × temperature interactions; consequently the data are presented for the CO₂ and temperature effects. At the final harvest, elevated CO₂ decreased the nonpolar fraction of the PCC and increased the polar fraction and amount of sugars in the needles. In contrast, elevated temperature increased the nonpolar fraction of the PCC and decreased sugars in needles. There were no CO₂ or temperature effects on the PCC fractions in the woody tissue or root tissue. Elevated CO₂ and temperature had no significant effects on the C content of any of the plant tissues or fractions. In contrast, the foliar N content declined under elevated CO₂ and increased under elevated temperature; there were no significant effects in other tissues. The changes in the foliar N concentrations were in the cellulose and lignin fractions, the fractions, which contain protein, and are the consequences of changes in N allocation under the treatments. These results indicate reallocation of N among plant organs to optimize C assimilation, which is mediated via changes in the selectivity of Rubisco and carbohydrate modulation of gene expression.     

How uncertainties in future climate change predictions translate into future terrestrial carbon fluxes

We forced a global terrestrial carbon cycle model by climate fields of 14 ocean and atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) to simulate the response of terrestrial carbon pools and fluxes to climate change over the next century. These models participated in the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2), where a 1% per year increase of atmospheric CO₂ was prescribed. We obtain a reduction in net land uptake because of climate change ranging between 1.4 and 5.7 Gt C yr^?1 at the time of atmospheric CO₂ doubling. Such a reduction in terrestrial carbon sinks is largely dominated by the response of tropical ecosystems, where soil water stress occurs. The uncertainty in the simulated land carbon cycle response is the consequence of discrepancies in land temperature and precipitation changes simulated by the OAGCMs. We use a statistical approach to assess the coherence of the land carbon fluxes response to climate change. The biospheric carbon fluxes and pools changes have a coherent response in the tropics, in the Mediterranean region and in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is because of a good coherence of soil water content change in the first two regions and of temperature change in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Then we evaluate the carbon uptake uncertainties to the assumptions on plant productivity sensitivity to atmospheric CO₂ and on decomposition rate sensitivity to temperature. We show that these uncertainties are on the same order of magnitude than the uncertainty because of climate change. Finally, we find that the OAGCMs having the largest climate sensitivities to CO₂ are the ones with the largest soil drying in the tropics, and therefore with the largest reduction of carbon uptake.