Leveraging plant hydraulics to yield predictive and dynamic plant leaf allocation in vegetation models with climate change

Plant functional traits provide a link in process‐based vegetation models between plant‐level physiology and ecosystem‐level responses. Recent advances in physiological understanding and computational efficiency have allowed for the incorporation of plant hydraulic processes in large‐scale vegetation models. However, a more mechanistic representation of water limitation that determines ecosystem responses to plant water stress necessitates a re‐evaluation of trait‐based constraints for plant carbon allocation, particularly allocation to leaf area. In this review, we examine model representations of plant allocation to leaves, which is often empirically set by plant functional type‐specific allometric relationships. We analyze the evolution of the representation of leaf allocation in models of different scales and complexities. We show the impacts of leaf allocation strategy on plant carbon uptake in the context of recent advancements in modeling hydraulic processes. Finally, we posit that deriving allometry from first principles using mechanistic hydraulic processes is possible and should become standard practice, rather than using prescribed allometries. The representation of allocation as an emergent property of scarce resource constraints is likely to be critical to representing how global change processes impact future ecosystem dynamics and carbon fluxes and may reduce the number of poorly constrained parameters in vegetation models.     

Stem and leaf hydraulic properties are finely coordinated in three tropical rain forest tree species

Coordination of stem and leaf hydraulic traits allows terrestrial plants to maintain safe water status under limited water supply. Tropical rain forests, one of the world's most productive biomes, are vulnerable to drought and potentially threatened by increased aridity due to global climate change. However, the relationship of stem and leaf traits within the plant hydraulic continuum remains understudied, particularly in tropical species. We studied within‐plant hydraulic coordination between stems and leaves in three tropical lowland rain forest tree species by analyses of hydraulic vulnerability [hydraulic methods and ultrasonic emission (UE) analysis], pressure‐volume relations and in situ pre‐dawn and midday water potentials (Ψ). We found finely coordinated stem and leaf hydraulic features, with a strategy of sacrificing leaves in favour of stems. Fifty percent of hydraulic conductivity (P₅₀) was lost at ?2.1 to ?3.1 MPa in stems and at ?1.7 to ?2.2 MPa in leaves. UE analysis corresponded to hydraulic measurements. Safety margins (leaf P₅₀ – stem P₅₀) were very narrow at ?0.4 to ?1.4 MPa. Pressure‐volume analysis and in situ Ψ indicated safe water status in stems but risk of hydraulic failure in leaves. Our study shows that stem and leaf hydraulics were finely tuned to avoid embolism formation in the xylem.     

Stem and leaf hydraulics of congeneric tree species from adjacent tropical savanna and forest ecosystems

Leaf and stem functional traits related to plant water relations were studied for six congeneric species pairs, each composed of one tree species typical of savanna habitats and another typical of adjacent forest habitats, to determine whether there were intrinsic differences in plant hydraulics between these two functional types. Only individuals growing in savanna habitats were studied. Most stem traits, including wood density, the xylem water potential at 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity, sapwood area specific conductivity, and leaf area specific conductivity did not differ significantly between savanna and forest species. However, maximum leaf hydraulic conductance (K _leaf) and leaf capacitance tended to be higher in savanna species. Predawn leaf water potential and leaf mass per area were also higher in savanna species in all congeneric pairs. Hydraulic vulnerability curves of stems and leaves indicated that leaves were more vulnerable to drought-induced cavitation than terminal branches regardless of genus. The midday K _leaf values estimated from leaf vulnerability curves were very low implying that daily embolism repair may occur in leaves. An electric circuit analog model predicted that, compared to forest species, savanna species took longer for their leaf water potentials to drop from predawn values to values corresponding to 50% loss of K _leaf or to the turgor loss points, suggesting that savanna species were more buffered from changes in leaf water potential. The results of this study suggest that the relative success of savanna over forest species in savanna is related in part to their ability to cope with drought, which is determined more by leaf than by stem hydraulic traits. Variation among genera accounted for a large proportion of the total variance in most traits, which indicates that, despite different selective pressures in savanna and forest habitats, phylogeny has a stronger effect than habitat in determining most hydraulic traits.     

Tree hydraulic traits are coordinated and strongly linked to climate‐of‐origin across a rainfall gradient

Plant hydraulic traits capture the impacts of drought stress on plant function, yet vegetation models lack sufficient information regarding trait coordination and variation with climate‐of‐origin across species. Here, we investigated key hydraulic and carbon economy traits of 12 woody species in Australia from a broad climatic gradient, with the aim of identifying the coordination among these traits and the role of climate in shaping cross‐species trait variation. The influence of environmental variation was minimized by a common garden approach, allowing us to factor out the influence of environment on phenotypic variation across species. We found that hydraulic traits (leaf turgor loss point, stomatal sensitivity to drought [P_gs], xylem vulnerability to cavitation [P_x], and branch capacitance [C_branch]) were highly coordinated across species and strongly related to rainfall and aridity in the species native distributional range. In addition, trade‐offs between drought tolerance and plant growth rate were observed across species. Collectively, these results provide critical insight into the coordination among hydraulic traits in modulating drought adaptation and will significantly advance our ability to predict drought vulnerability in these dominant trees species.     

CO2‐mediated changes of plant traits and their effects on herbivores are determined by leaf age

1. Concentration of atmospheric CO₂ is predicted to double during the 21st century. However, quantitative effects of increased CO₂ levels on natural herbivore–plant interactions are still little understood. 2. In this study, we assess whether increased CO₂ quantitatively affects multiple defensive and nutritive traits in different leaf stages of cyanogenic wildtype lima bean plants (Phaseolus lunatus), and whether plant responses influence performance and choice behaviour of a natural insect herbivore, the Mexican bean beetle (Epilachna varivestis). 3. We cultivated lima bean plants in climate chambers at ambient, 500, 700, and 1000 ppm CO₂ and analysed cyanogenic precursor concentration (nitrogen‐based defence), total phenolics (carbon‐based defence), leaf mass per area (LMA; physical defence), and soluble proteins (nutritive parameter) of three defined leaf age groups. 4. In young leaves, cyanide concentration was the only parameter that quantitatively decreased in response to CO₂ treatments. In intermediate and mature leaves, cyanide and protein concentrations decreased while total phenolics and LMA increased. 5. Depending on leaf stage, CO₂‐mediated changes in leaf traits significantly affected larval performance and choice behaviour of adult beetles. We observed a complete shift from highest herbivore damage in mature leaves under natural CO₂ to highest damage of young leaves under elevated CO_2. Our study shows that leaf stage is an essential factor when considering CO₂‐mediated changes of plant defences against herbivores. Since in the long run preferred consumption of young leaves can strongly affect plant fitness, variable effects of elevated CO₂ on different leaf stages should receive highlighted attention in future research.     

Simulated responses of potential vegetation to doubled-CO2 climate change and feedbacks on near-surface temperature

Increases in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and associated changes in climate may exert large impacts on plant physiology and the density of vegetation cover. These may in turn provide feedbacks on climate through a modification of surface‐atmosphere fluxes of energy and moisture. This paper uses asynchronously coupled models of global vegetation and climate to examine the responses of potential vegetation to different aspects of a doubled‐CO₂ environmental change, and compares the feedbacks on near‐surface temperature arising from physiological and structural components of the vegetation response. Stomatal conductance reduces in response to the higher CO₂ concentration, but rising temperatures and a redistribution of precipitation also exert significant impacts on this property as well as leading to major changes in potential vegetation structure. Overall, physiological responses act to enhance the warming near the surface, but in many areas this is offset by increases in leaf area resulting from greater precipitation and higher temperatures. Interactions with seasonal snow cover result in a positive feedback on winter warming in the boreal forest regions.     

Hydraulic characteristics and leaf water use efficiency in trees from tropical montane habitats

This study was carried out in pioneer and successional forest tree species in a lower montane tropical forest with seasonal rains. We tested whether pioneer species feature high hydraulic conductance allowing them to use water profusely at leaf level. Conversely, forest species may have relatively low hydraulic conductance accompanied with better control over water use. This may lead in turn to pioneer species being at a relatively higher risk of shoot water potential falling below the threshold value at which cavitations occur compared to forest. Specific hydraulic conductance ( K _s) measured during the wet season was comparable between pioneers and forest species. During drought, K _s was significantly reduced, and species of both plant groups responded to this by modifying the relationship between conducting area and leaf area (Huver value), such that leaf specific conductivity ( K _l) was unaffected. Thus, leaf area seemed to be adjusted to maintain constant hydraulic sufficiency during drought. Pioneer species were more efficient in conducting water to their leaves but had low control over water use compared to forest species. A trade-off between water transport and leaf water use efficiency was suggested. These ecophysiological differences may have an impact on the performance of the species occupying contrasting habitats. Nonetheless, drought-induced embolisms occurred in trees growing in both open and forest habitats. Overall, during drought, adjustment of leaf area occurred in order to maintain a homeostasis of some physiological traits (leaf-specific conductivity and carbon assimilation).     

Inclusion of ecologically based trait variation in plant functional types reduces the projected land carbon sink in an earth system model

Earth system models demonstrate large uncertainty in projected changes in terrestrial carbon budgets. The lack of inclusion of adaptive responses of vegetation communities to the environment has been suggested to hamper the ability of modeled vegetation to adequately respond to environmental change. In this study, variation in functional responses of vegetation has been added to an earth system model (ESM) based on ecological principles. The restriction of viable mean trait values of vegetation communities by the environment, called ‘habitat filtering’, is an important ecological assembly rule and allows for determination of global scale trait–environment relationships. These relationships were applied to model trait variation for different plant functional types (PFTs). For three leaf traits (specific leaf area, maximum carboxylation rate at 25 °C, and maximum electron transport rate at 25 °C), relationships with multiple environmental drivers, such as precipitation, temperature, radiation, and CO₂, were determined for the PFTs within the Max Planck Institute ESM. With these relationships, spatiotemporal variation in these formerly fixed traits in PFTs was modeled in global change projections (IPCC RCP8.5 scenario). Inclusion of this environment‐driven trait variation resulted in a strong reduction of the global carbon sink by at least 33% (2.1 Pg C yr^?1) from the 2nd quarter of the 21st century onward compared to the default model with fixed traits. In addition, the mid‐ and high latitudes became a stronger carbon sink and the tropics a stronger carbon source, caused by trait‐induced differences in productivity and relative respirational costs. These results point toward a reduction of the global carbon sink when including a more realistic representation of functional vegetation responses, implying more carbon will stay airborne, which could fuel further climate change.     

Impacts of climate change on the vegetation of Africa: an adaptive dynamic vegetation modelling approach

Recent IPCC projections suggest that Africa will be subject to particularly severe changes in atmospheric conditions. How the vegetation of Africa and particularly the grassland–savanna–forest complex will respond to these changes has rarely been investigated. Most studies on global carbon cycles use vegetation models that do not adequately account for the complexity of the interactions that shape the distribution of tropical grasslands, savannas and forests. This casts doubt on their ability to reliably simulate the future vegetation of Africa. We present a new vegetation model, the adaptive dynamic global vegetation model (aDGVM) that was specifically developed for tropical vegetation. The aDGVM combines established components from existing DGVMs with novel process‐based and adaptive modules for phenology, carbon allocation and fire within an individual‐based framework. Thus, the model allows vegetation to adapt phenology, allocation and physiology to changing environmental conditions and disturbances in a way not possible in models based on fixed functional types. We used the model to simulate the current vegetation patterns of Africa and found good agreement between model projections and vegetation maps. We simulated vegetation in absence of fire and found that fire suppression strongly influences tree dominance at the regional scale while at a continental scale fire suppression increases biomass in vegetation by a more modest 13%. Simulations under elevated temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations predicted longer growing periods, higher allocation to roots, higher fecundity, more biomass and a dramatic shift toward tree dominated biomes. Our analyses suggest that the CO₂ fertilization effect is not saturated at ambient CO₂ levels and will strongly increase in response to further increases in CO₂ levels. The model provides a general and flexible framework for describing vegetation response to the interactive effects of climate and disturbances.     

How drought events during the last century have impacted biomass carbon in Amazonian rainforests

During the last two decades, inventory data show that droughts have reduced biomass carbon sink of the Amazon forest by causing mortality to exceed growth. However, process-based models have struggled to include drought-induced responses of growth and mortality and have not been evaluated against plot data. A process-based model, ORCHIDEE-CAN-NHA, including forest demography with tree cohorts, plant hydraulic architecture and drought-induced tree mortality, was applied over Amazonia rainforests forced by gridded climate fields and rising CO₂ from 1901 to 2019. The model reproduced the decelerating signal of net carbon sink and drought sensitivity of aboveground biomass (AGB) growth and mortality observed at forest plots across selected Amazon intact forests for 2005 and 2010. We predicted a larger mortality rate and a more negative sensitivity of the net carbon sink during the 2015/16 El Niño compared with the former droughts. 2015/16 was indeed the most severe drought since 1901 regarding both AGB loss and area experiencing a severe carbon loss. We found that even if climate change did increase mortality, elevated CO₂ contributed to balance the biomass mortality, since CO₂-induced stomatal closure reduces transpiration, thus, offsets increased transpiration from CO₂-induced higher foliage area.     

Net primary and ecosystem production and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to climate change

Evaluating the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle requires a detailed understanding of carbon exchange between vegetation, soil, and the atmosphere. Global climatic change may modify the net carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems, causing feedbacks on atmospheric CO₂ and climate. We describe a model for investigating terrestrial carbon exchange and its response to climatic variation based on the processes of plant photosynthesis, carbon allocation, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition. The model is used to produce geographical patterns of net primary production (NPP), carbon stocks in vegetation and soils, and the seasonal variations in net ecosystem production (NEP) under both contemporary and future climates. For contemporary climate, the estimated global NPP is 57.0 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils are 640 Gt C and 1358 Gt C, respectively, and NEP varies from –0.5 Gt C in October to 1.6 Gt C in July. For a doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration and the corresponding climate, we predict that global NPP will rise to 69.6 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils will increase by, respectively, 133 Gt C and 160 Gt C, and the seasonal amplitude of NEP will increase by 76%. A doubling of atmospheric CO₂ without climate change may enhance NPP by 25% and result in a substantial increase in carbon stocks in vegetation and soils. Climate change without CO₂ elevation will reduce the global NPP and soil carbon stocks, but leads to an increase in vegetation carbon because of a forest extension and NPP enhancement in the north. By combining the effects of CO₂ doubling, climate change, and the consequent redistribution of vegetation, we predict a strong enhancement in NPP and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems. This study simulates the possible variation in the carbon exchange at equilibrium state. We anticipate to investigate the dynamic responses in the carbon exchange to atmospheric CO₂ elevation and climate change in the past and future.     

Water use of two Mojave Desert shrubs under elevated CO2

Plant responses to elevated atmospheric CO₂ have been characterized generally by stomatal closure and enhanced growth rates. These responses are being increasingly incorporated into global climate models that quantify interactions between the biosphere and atmosphere, altering climate predictions from simpler physically based models. However, current information on CO₂ responses has been gathered primarily from studies of crop and temperate forest species. In order to apply responses of vegetation to global predictions, CO₂ responses in other commonly occurring biomes must be studied. A Free Air CO₂ Enrichment (FACE) study is currently underway to examine plant responses to high CO₂ in a natural, undisturbed Mojave Desert ecosystem in Nevada, USA. Here we present findings from this study, and its companion glasshouse experiment, demonstrating that field‐grown Ephedra nevadensis and glasshouse‐grown Larrea tridentata responded to high CO₂ with reductions in the ratio of transpirational surface area to sapwood area (LSR) of 33% and 60%, respectively. Thus, leaf‐specific hydraulic conductivity increased and stomatal conductance remained constant or was increased under elevated CO₂. Field‐grown Larrea did not show a reduced LSR under high CO₂, and stomatal conductance was reduced in the high CO₂ treatment, although the effect was apparent only under conditions of unusually high soil moisture. Both findings suggest that the common paradigm of 20–50% reductions in stomatal conductance under high CO₂ may not be applicable to arid ecosystems under most conditions.     

Thermal acclimation of leaf respiration of tropical trees and lianas: response to experimental canopy warming,and consequences for tropical forest carbon balance

Climate warming is expected to increase respiration rates of tropical forest trees and lianas, which may negatively affect the carbon balance of tropical forests. Thermal acclimation could mitigate the expected respiration increase, but the thermal acclimation potential of tropical forests remains largely unknown. In a tropical forest in Panama, we experimentally increased nighttime temperatures of upper canopy leaves of three tree and two liana species by on average 3  ° C for 1 week, and quantified temperature responses of leaf dark respiration. Respiration at 25  ° C (R₂₅) decreased with increasing leaf temperature, but acclimation did not result in perfect homeostasis of respiration across temperatures. In contrast, Q₁₀ of treatment and control leaves exhibited similarly high values (range 2.5–3.0) without evidence of acclimation. The decrease in R₂₅ was not caused by respiratory substrate depletion, as warming did not reduce leaf carbohydrate concentration. To evaluate the wider implications of our experimental results, we simulated the carbon cycle of tropical latitudes (24 ° S–24 ° N) from 2000 to 2100 using a dynamic global vegetation model (LM3VN) modified to account for acclimation. Acclimation reduced the degree to which respiration increases with climate warming in the model relative to a no‐acclimation scenario, leading to 21% greater increase in net primary productivity and 18% greater increase in biomass carbon storage over the 21st century. We conclude that leaf respiration of tropical forest plants can acclimate to nighttime warming, thereby reducing the magnitude of the positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle.     

The 'hydrology' of leaves: co-ordination of structure and function in temperate woody species

The hydraulic conductance of the leaf lamina (K_lamina) substantially constrains whole‐plant water transport, but little is known of its association with leaf structure and function. K_lamina was measured for sun and shade leaves of six woody temperate species growing in moist soil, and tested for correlation with the prevailing leaf irradiance, and with 22 other leaf traits. K_lamina varied from 7.40 × 10^?5 kg m^?2 s^?1 MPa^?1 for Acer saccharum shade leaves to 2.89 × 10^?4 kg m^?2 s^?1 MPa^?1 for Vitis labrusca sun leaves. Tree sun leaves had 15–67% higher K_lamina than shade leaves. K_lamina was co‐ordinated with traits associated with high water flux, including leaf irradiance, petiole hydraulic conductance, guard cell length, and stomatal pore area per lamina area. K_lamina was also co‐ordinated with lamina thickness, water storage capacitance, 1/mesophyll water transfer resistance, and, in five of the six species, with lamina perimeter/area. However, for the six species, K_lamina was independent of inter‐related leaf traits including leaf dry mass per area, density, modulus of elasticity, osmotic potential, and cuticular conductance. K_lamina was thus co‐ordinated with structural and functional traits relating to liquid‐phase water transport and to maximum rates of gas exchange, but independent of other traits relating to drought tolerance and to aspects of carbon economy.     

Trees tolerate an extreme heatwave via sustained transpirational cooling and increased leaf thermal tolerance

Heatwaves are likely to increase in frequency and intensity with climate change, which may impair tree function and forest C uptake. However, we have little information regarding the impact of extreme heatwaves on the physiological performance of large trees in the field. Here, we grew Eucalyptus parramattensis trees for 1 year with experimental warming (+3°C) in a field setting, until they were greater than 6 m tall. We withheld irrigation for 1 month to dry the surface soils and then implemented an extreme heatwave treatment of 4 consecutive days with air temperatures exceeding 43°C, while monitoring whole‐canopy exchange of CO₂ and H₂O, leaf temperatures, leaf thermal tolerance, and leaf and branch hydraulic status. The heatwave reduced midday canopy photosynthesis to near zero but transpiration persisted, maintaining canopy cooling. A standard photosynthetic model was unable to capture the observed decoupling between photosynthesis and transpiration at high temperatures, suggesting that climate models may underestimate a moderating feedback of vegetation on heatwave intensity. The heatwave also triggered a rapid increase in leaf thermal tolerance, such that leaf temperatures observed during the heatwave were maintained within the thermal limits of leaf function. All responses were equivalent for trees with a prior history of ambient and warmed (+3°C) temperatures, indicating that climate warming conferred no added tolerance of heatwaves expected in the future. This coordinated physiological response utilizing latent cooling and adjustment of thermal thresholds has implications for tree tolerance of future climate extremes as well as model predictions of future heatwave intensity at landscape and global scales.     

不同经营模式对蒙古栎次生林叶功能性状和土壤理化性质的影响

植物功能性状是连接植物与环境的桥梁,能反映植物对外部环境的适应机制。以黑龙江省哈尔滨市丹青河实验林场3种经营模式下的蒙古栎天然次生林为研究对象,对其叶功能性状进行研究,探讨叶功能性状与土壤理化性质间的关系,对于理解植物对环境的适应机制及植物群落的构建具有重要意义。研究结果表明:(1)除土壤全钾、速效钾、有机碳含量外,不同经营模式下的土壤理化性质相差不大;(2)不同经营模式下的叶功能性状差异较大,目标树经营模式的单叶面积极显著大于综合抚育模式和无干扰模式(P0.01),目标树经营模式的叶氮、叶有机碳含量极显著小于综合抚育模式和无干扰模式(P0.01);单叶面积与叶氮含量、叶有机碳含量间均存在极显著负向相关关系(P0.01),叶氮含量与叶有机碳含量间存在极显著正向相关关系(P0.01);(3)土壤有机碳对单叶面积、叶氮含量、叶磷含量、叶有机碳含量均有显著影响。可见,不同经营模式下的蒙古栎天然次生林自我恢复能力较强,在采取不同程度的抚育后均未造成林地土壤养分的损失,土壤有机碳是影响不同经营模式下蒙古栎天然次生林叶功能性状变异的主要因素,蒙古栎天然次生林群落通过功能性状的耦合协调或组合来适应环境,植物功能性状对土壤理化性质的响应是一个长期的过程,仍需加强长期监测和更多研究。     

Allometric constraints and competition enable the simulation of size structure and carbon fluxes in a dynamic vegetation model of tropical forests (LM3PPA‐TV)

Tropical forests are a key determinant of the functioning of the Earth system, but remain a major source of uncertainty in carbon cycle models and climate change projections. In this study, we present an updated land model (LM3PPA‐TV) to improve the representation of tropical forest structure and dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs). The development and parameterization of LM3PPA‐TV drew on extensive datasets on tropical tree traits and long‐term field censuses from Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. The model defines a new plant functional type (PFT) based on the characteristics of shade‐tolerant, tropical tree species, implements a new growth allocation scheme based on realistic tree allometries, incorporates hydraulic constraints on biomass accumulation, and features a new compartment for tree branches and branch fall dynamics. Simulation experiments reproduced observed diurnal and seasonal patterns in stand‐level carbon and water fluxes, as well as mean canopy and understory tree growth rates, tree size distributions, and stand‐level biomass on BCI. Simulations at multiple sites captured considerable variation in biomass and size structure across the tropical forest biome, including observed responses to precipitation and temperature. Model experiments suggested a major role of water limitation in controlling geographic variation forest biomass and structure. However, the failure to simulate tropical forests under extreme conditions and the systematic underestimation of forest biomass in Paleotropical locations highlighted the need to incorporate variation in hydraulic traits and multiple PFTs that capture the distinct floristic composition across tropical domains. The continued pressure on tropical forests from global change demands models which are able to simulate alternative successional pathways and their pace to recovery. LM3PPA‐TV provides a tool to investigate geographic variation in tropical forests and a benchmark to continue improving the representation of tropical forests dynamics and their carbon storage potential in ESMs.     

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here, we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species‐specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured interannual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including aboveground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model‐data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.     

Shifts in functional traits elevate risk of fire‐driven tree dieback in tropical savanna and forest biomes

Numerous predictions indicate rising CO₂ will accelerate the expansion of forests into savannas. Although encroaching forests can sequester carbon over the short term, increased fires and drought‐fire interactions could offset carbon gains, which may be amplified by the shift toward forest plant communities more susceptible to fire‐driven dieback. We quantify how bark thickness determines the ability of individual tree species to tolerate fire and subsequently determine the fire sensitivity of ecosystem carbon across 180 plots in savannas and forests throughout the 2.2‐million km² Cerrado region in Brazil. We find that not accounting for variation in bark thickness across tree species underestimated carbon losses in forests by ~50%, totaling 0.22 PgC across the Cerrado region. The lower bark thicknesses of plant species in forests decreased fire tolerance to such an extent that a third of carbon gains during forest encroachment may be at risk of dieback if burned. These results illustrate that consideration of trait‐based differences in fire tolerance is critical for determining the climate‐carbon‐fire feedback in tropical savanna and forest biomes.     

Embolism recovery strategies and nocturnal water loss across species influenced by biogeographic origin

Drought‐induced tree mortality is expected to increase in future climates with the potential for significant consequences to global carbon, water, and energy cycles. Xylem embolism can accumulate to lethal levels during drought, but species that can refill embolized xylem and recover hydraulic function may be able to avoid mortality. Yet the potential controls of embolism recovery, including cross‐biome patterns and plant traits such as nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs), hydraulic traits, and nocturnal stomatal conductance, are unknown. We exposed eight plant species, originating from mesic (tropical and temperate) and semi‐arid environments, to drought under ambient and elevated CO₂ levels, and assessed recovery from embolism following rewatering. We found a positive association between xylem recovery and NSCs, and, surprisingly, a positive relationship between xylem recovery and nocturnal stomatal conductance. Arid‐zone species exhibited greater embolism recovery than mesic zone species. Our results indicate that nighttime stomatal conductance often assumed to be a wasteful use of water, may in fact be a key part of plant drought responses, and contribute to drought survival. Findings suggested distinct biome‐specific responses that partially depended on species climate‐of‐origin precipitation or aridity index, which allowed some species to recover from xylem embolism. These findings provide improved understanding required to predict the response of diverse plant communities to drought. Our results provide a framework for predicting future vegetation shifts in response to climate change.