Linking habitat specialization with species' traits in European birds

Ecological specialization provides information about adaptations of species to their environment. However, identification of traits representing the relevant dimensions of ecological space remains challenging. Here we endeavoured to explain how complex habitat specializations relate to various ecological traits of European birds. We employed phylogenetic generalized least squares and information theoretic approach statistically controlling for differences in geographic range size among species. Habitat specialists had narrower diet niche, wider climatic niche, higher wing length/tail length ratio and migrated on shorter distances than habitat generalists. Our results support an expected positive link between habitat and diet niche breadth estimates, however a negative relationship between habitat and climate niche breadths is surprising. It implies that habitat specialists occur mostly in spatially restricted environments with high climatic variability such as mountain areas. This, however, complicates our understanding of predicted impacts of climatic changes on avian geographical distributions. Our results further corroborate that habitat specialization reflects occupation of morphological space, when specialists depend more on manoeuvrability of the flight and are thus more closely associated to open habitats than habitat generalists. Finally, our results indicate that long distance movements might hamper narrow habitat preferences. In conclusion, we have shown that species’ distributions across habitats are informative about their positions along other axes of ecological space and can explain states of particular functional traits, however, our results also reveal that the links between different niche estimates cannot be always straightforwardly predicted.     

Species’ thermal preferences affect forest bird communities along landscape and local scale habitat gradients

The spatial distributions of species, and the resulting composition of local communities, are shaped by a complex interplay between species’ climatic and habitat preferences. We investigated this interaction by analyzing how the climatic niches of bird species within given communities (measured as a community thermal index, CTI) are related to vegetation structure. Using 3129 bird communities from the French Breeding Bird Survey and an information theoretic multimodel inference framework, we assessed patterns of CTI variation along landscape scale gradients of forest cover and configuration. We then tested whether the CTI varies along local scale gradients of forest structure and composition using a detailed data set of 659 communities from six forests located in northwestern France. At landscape scale, CTI values decreased with increasing forest cover, indicating that bird communities were increasingly dominated by cold‐dwelling species. This tendency was strongest at low latitudes and in landscapes dominated by unfragmented forest. At local scale, CTI values were higher in mature deciduous stands than in conifer or early stage deciduous stands, and they decreased consistently with distance from the edge of forest. These trends underpin the assertion that species’ habitat use along forest gradients is linked with their climatic niche, although it remains unclear to what extent it is a direct consequence of microclimatic variation among habitats, or a reflection of macroscale correlations between species’ thermal preferences and their habitat choice. Moreover, our results highlight the need to address issues of scale in determining how habitat and climate interact to drive the spatial distribution of species. This will be a crucial step towards accurate predictions of changes in the composition and dynamics of bird communities under global warming.     

HOW IS THE RATE OF CLIMATIC‐NICHE EVOLUTION RELATED TO CLIMATIC‐NICHE BREADTH?

The rate of climatic‐niche evolution is important to many research areas in ecology, evolution, and conservation biology, including responses of species to global climate change, spread of invasive species, speciation, biogeography, and patterns of species richness. Previous studies have implied that clades with higher rates of climatic‐niche evolution among species should have species with narrower niche breadths, but there is also evidence suggesting the opposite pattern. However, the relationships between rate and breadth have not been explicitly analyzed. Here, we examine the relationships between the rate of climatic‐niche evolution and climatic‐niche breadth using phylogenetic and climatic data for 250 species in the salamander family Plethodontidae, a group showing considerable variation in both rates of climatic‐niche evolution and climatic‐niche breadths. Contrary to some expectations, we find no general relationship between climatic‐niche breadth and the rate of climatic‐niche evolution. Climatic‐niche breadths for some ecologically important climatic variables considered separately (temperature seasonality and annual precipitation) do show significant relationships with the rate of climatic‐niche evolution, but rates are faster in clades in which species have broader (not narrower) niche breadths. In summary, our results show that narrower niche breadths are not necessarily associated with faster rates of niche evolution.     

Changes in habitat specificity of species at their climatic range boundaries

Species are thought to have more restricted niches towards their range boundaries, although this has rarely been quantified systematically. We analysed transect data for 41 butterfly species along climatic gradients within Britain and show that 71% of species have broader niches at sites with milder winters. Shifts in habitat associations are considerable across most species' ranges; averaged across all 41 species, we estimate that if 26% of individuals were associated with the favoured habitat on the species' warmest transect, then 70% of individuals would be confined to this habitat on the species' coldest transect. Species with more southerly distributions in Britain showed the greatest changes in their habitat associations. We conclude that geographic variation in realized niche breadth is common and relatively large, especially near range boundaries, and should be taken into account in conserving species under changing climates.     

Average niche breadths of species in lake macrophyte communities respond to ecological gradients variably in four regions on two continents

Different species’ niche breadths in relation to ecological gradients are infrequently examined within the same study and, moreover, species niche breadths have rarely been averaged to account for variation in entire ecological communities. We investigated how average environmental niche breadths (climate, water quality and climate–water quality niches) in aquatic macrophyte communities are related to ecological gradients (latitude, longitude, altitude, species richness and lake area) among four distinct regions (Finland, Sweden and US states of Minnesota and Wisconsin) on two continents. We found that correlations between the three different measures of average niche breadths and ecological gradients varied considerably among the study regions, with average climate and average water quality niche breadth models often showing opposite trends. However, consistent patterns were also found, such as widening of average climate niche breadths and narrowing of average water quality niche breadths of aquatic macrophytes along increasing latitudinal and altitudinal gradients. This result suggests that macrophyte species are generalists in relation to temperature variations at higher latitudes and altitudes, whereas species in southern, lowland lakes are more specialised. In contrast, aquatic macrophytes growing in more southern nutrient-rich lakes were generalists in relation to water quality, while specialist species are adapted to low-productivity conditions and are found in highland lakes. Our results emphasise that species niche breadths should not be studied using only coarse-scale data of species distributions and corresponding environmental conditions, but that investigations on different kinds of niche breadths (e.g., climate vs. local niches) also require finer resolution data at broad spatial extents.     

Testing abundance-range size relationships in European carabid beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae)

Four of the eight hypotheses proposed in the literature for explaining the relationship between abundance and range size (the sampling artifact, phylogenetic non-independence, range position and resource breadth hypotheses) were tested by using atlas data for carabid beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae) from Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands. A positive relationship between abundance and partial range size was found in all three countries, and the variation in abundance was lower for widespread species. Analysis of the data did not support three of the proposed hypotheses, but did support the resource breadth hypothesis (species having broader environmental tolerances and being able to use a wider range or resources will have higher local densities and be more widely distributed than more specialised species). Examination of species' characteristics revealed that widespread species are generally large bodied, generalists (species with wide niche breadths occurring in a variety of habitat types) and are little influenced by human-altered landscapes, while species with restricted distributions are smaller bodied, specialists (species with small niche breadths occurring in only one or two habitat types), and favour natural habitat. Landscape alteration may be an important factor influencing carabid abundance and range size in these three countries with a long history of human-induced environmental changes.     

On humans and wildlife in Mediterranean islands

Aim To investigate the effects of human‐induced landscape changes in Mediterranean islands on the ecological and evolutionary responses of bird communities and populations. The combination of mass extinction of large mammals and massive deforestation by humans was hypothesized to produce new selection regimes to which organisms were likely to respond. Habitat selection and niche breadth have been investigated at the scale of species, and phenotypic variation at the scale of local populations. Location The study was carried out along habitat gradients and in habitat mosaics at different spatial scales on the island of Corsica and in areas of similar size and structure in continental France. Methods Two sets of gradients have been used for investigating habitat selection and niche breadth: gradients of altitude, and gradients of vegetation structure. Population studies focused on the blue tit, Cyanistes caeruleus. Large samples of breeding attempts by this species in 10 habitats provided detailed data on phenotypic variation of fitness‐related traits both on Corsica and on the mainland. Results The extent of niche space used by birds differed substantially depending on which habitat gradient was considered. Many species have been found to contract their habitat niche along the elevation gradient on Corsica compared with the mainland, whereas all species in the vegetation gradient broadened their niche on the island. Breeding patterns of the blue tit differed considerably depending on whether they settle in deciduous oaks (Quercus humilis) or in evergreen sclerophyllous oaks (Quercus ilex). Phenotypic variation of breeding traits was much higher on the island, where more populations were correctly timed for the best breeding period than on the mainland, a pattern that is likely to result from lower dispersal of organisms on the island. Main conclusions The differences in observed niche breadth between the two series of habitat gradients is explained both by the species‐specific ecology of the species and the human‐induced environmental history of Corsica. Large‐scale landscape changes provided new opportunities for island colonization by non‐forest species, which are isolated as small, ‘fugitive’ local populations. In both gradients, forest species that are typical components of the Corsican bird fauna definitely expanded their niche and occupied a wider range of habitats on Corsica than on the mainland. At the population scale, landscapes included habitat patches with contrasted selection regimes, which resulted in high phenotypic variation for many fitness‐related traits. Reduced dispersal of birds on the island resulted in a much higher degree of local differentiation on Corsica than on the mainland.     

Climatic constraints on wintering bird distributions are modified by urbanization and weather

1.?Ecologists have long been interested in the role of climate in shaping species' ranges, and in recent years, this relationship has taken on greater significance because of the need for accurate predictions of the effects of climate change on wildlife populations. Bioclimatic relationships, however, are potentially complicated by various environmental factors operating at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we test the hypothesis that climatic constraints on bird distributions are modified by species-specific responses to weather, urbanization and use of supplemental food. 2.?Our analyses focused on 18 bird species with data from over 3000 sites across the north-eastern United States and adjacent Canadian provinces. We use hierarchal occupancy modelling to quantify the effects of short-term weather variation and surrounding urbanization on food stress and probabilities of detection, and how these fine-scale changes modify the role that climate has on the distributions of wintering bird populations at regional scales. 3.?Examining site occupancy and supplemental food use across the study region, we found that average minimum temperature was an important factor limiting bird distributions, supporting the hypothesis that the occupancy of wintering birds is limited by climatic constraints. We found that 15 of 18 species (83%) were more energetically stressed (had a higher likelihood of visiting a feeder station) as minimum temperature declined from the seasonal average. Because we found these patterns in populations that regularly visit supplemental food sites and were likely not food-limited, we suggest that resource availability is less important than climate in constraining wintering bird distributions. Across a winter season, local within-winter extinction probabilities were lower and colonization probabilities higher at warmer sites supporting the role of climate-mediated range shifts. Importantly, however, these relationships were modified by the degree of urbanization and species' abilities to persist in human-modified landscapes. 4.?Our results suggest that urbanization and behavioural adaptation can modify the role of climate on bird ranges and should be included in future analyses of range shifts because of climate change.     

Macroecological Patterns of Climatic Niche Breadth Variation in Lacertid Lizards

Measuring climatic niche position and breadth may help to determine where species can occur over space and time. Using GIS-based and phylogenetic comparative methods, we investigated global patterns of variation in climatic niche breadth in lacertid lizards to test the following three hypotheses about climatic niche widths. First, does a species' temperature or precipitation niche breadth relate to its temperature or precipitation niche position(the mean value of annual mean temperature or annual precipitation across sampled localities in the range of each species)? Second, are there trade-offs between a species' temperature niche breadth and precipitation niche breadth? Third, does a species' temperature or precipitation niche breadth relate to altitude or latitude? We expect that:(1) species distributed in cold regions are specialized for low-temperature environments(i.e. narrow niche breadth center around low temperatures);(2) a negative relationship between species niche breadth on temperature and precipitation axes according to the tradeoff hypothesis(i.e. species that tolerate a broad range of precipitation regimes cannot also tolerate a broad range of temperatures);(3) precipitation niche breadth decreases with altitude or latitude, whereas temperature climatic niche breadth increases with altitude or latitude. Based on the analytical results we found that:(1) temperature niche breadth and position are negatively related, while precipitation niche breadth and position are positively related;(2) there is no trade-off between temperature and precipitation niche breadths; and (3) temperature niche breadth and latitude/altitude are positively related, but precipitation niche breadth and latitude/altitude are not significantly related. Our results show many similarities with previous studies on climatic niche widths reported for amphibians and lizards, which provide further evidence that such macroecological patterns of variation in climatic niche breadths may be widespread.     

Relationships of bird community structure and species distributions to two environmental gradients in the northern boreal forest

Few studies have explicitly examined avian community structure in the North American northern boreal forest Herein we report upon the results of bird surveys in mature stands of boreal forest in the Great Clay Belt Ontario. Canada We related trends in avian community structure and individual bird species abundance to two environmental gradients described in a landbase classification scheme called the Forest Ecosystem Classification a moisture and a nutrient-richness gradient Variation in environmental characteristics is limited in the Ontario Clay Belt and this was reflected in short environmental gradient lengths However major trends in avian community structure were strongly associated with the nutrient-richness gradient axis summarized by this scheme Analyses of avian community composition indicated a continuum from moist coniferous habitats to drier aspen-dominated mixed woodlands with several bird species occurring in varying abundances across the width of both gradients 48 of the 58 species examined showed statistically significant associations with at least one of the two multivariate gradient axes A smaller proportion of short-distance migrant species were associated with these gradients than were species in either the neotropical migrant or resident categories We used a multivariate variable (habitat breadth) to compare degree of habitat specialization across different migratory groups A large proportion of neotropical migrants showed a high degree of habitat specialization m mature Clay Belt forests, and neotropical species with small habitat breadths were more commonly associated with habitats dominated by broad-leaved deciduous tree species than either short-distance or permanent resident species We discuss our findings in relation to the post-glacial history of the Clay Belt region     

Ecological consequences of contrasting dispersal syndromes in New World Ephedra: higher rates of niche evolution related to dispersal ability

In this study we selected the New World species of Ephedra to understand the ecological consequences of different dispersal syndromes. The twenty‐three species of Ephedra in the New World have a disjunct distribution in North and South American arid and semi‐arid habitats, exhibiting three dispersal syndromes related to dispersal by birds, wind and rodents. Using DNA sequence data we inferred phylogenetic relationships and lineage divergence times, and used these estimates to test different ecological assumptions. Using comparative methods we tested for correlations between dispersal syndromes and a set of ecological variables (niche breadth, niche evolution, distributional ranges and niche position). We found that speciation events in the New World coincided with the expansion of arid habitats in this region. We suggest that the bird dispersal syndrome is related with higher rates of climatic niche evolution for all variables used, including aridity index, mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation. Distribution ranges were correlated with niche breadth, they were however not significantly different between dispersal syndromes. Species inhabiting the extremely arid regions on niche axes had narrower niche breadths. We conclude that species whose seeds are dispersed by birds have colonized a broader set of habitats and that those with wind and rodent dispersal syndromes might have promoted the colonization of more arid environments.     

Determinants of northerly range limits along the Himalayan bird diversity gradient

The primary explanation for the latitudinal gradient in species diversity must lie in why species fail to expand ranges across different climatic regimes. Theories of species gradients based in niche conservatism assume that whole clades are confined to particular climatic regimes because the traits they share limit adaptation to alternative regimes. We assess these theories in an analysis of the twofold decline in bird species richness along the Himalayas from the southeast to the northwest. The presence of fewer species in the northwest is entirely due to a steep decline in the number of forest species; species occupying more open habitats show a reversed gradient. Forest species numbers are exceptionally high at midelevations (1,000-2,000 m) in the southeast, which experience a warm, wet climate not present in the northwest, and a high proportion of these species fail to expand their range to the northwest. Despite this, many species do have populations or close relatives that straddle different climatic regimes along altitudinal gradients and/or the regional gradient, implying that climate-based niche conservatism per se does not strongly constrain range limits. We argue that climate- and competition-mediated resource distributions are important in setting northerly range limits and show that one measure of forest resources (foliage density) is lower in the northwest.     

Ecophysiological variation across a forest‐ecotone gradient produces divergent climate change vulnerability within species

Climate change related risks and impacts on ectotherms will be mediated by habitats and their influence on local thermal environments. While many studies have documented morphological and genetic aspects of niche divergence across habitats, few have examined thermal performance across such gradients and directly linked this variation to contemporary climate change impacts. In this study, we quantified variation in thermal performance across a gradient from forest to gallery forest‐savanna mosaic in Cameroon for a skink species (Trachylepis affinis) known to be diverging genetically and morphologically across that habitat gradient. Based on these results, we then applied a mechanistic modelling approach (NicheMapR) to project changes in potential activity, as constrained by thermal performance, in response to climate change. As a complimentary approach, we also compared mechanistic projections with climate‐driven changes in habitat suitability based on species distribution models of forest and ecotone skinks. We found that ecotone skinks may benefit from warming and experience increased activity while forest skinks will likely face a drastic decrease in thermal suitability across the forest zone. Species distribution models projected that thermal suitability for forest skinks in coastal forests would decline but in other parts of the forest zone skinks are projected to experience increased thermal suitability. The results here highlight the utility of mechanistic approaches in revealing and understanding patterns of climate change vulnerability which may not be detected with species distribution models alone. This study also emphasizes the importance of intra‐specific physiological variation, and habitat‐specific thermal performance relationships in particular, in determining warming responses.     

Stream diatoms exhibit weak niche conservation along global environmental and climatic gradients

Niche conservatism (NC) describes the scenario in which species retain similar characteristics or traits over time and space, and thus has potentially important implications for understanding their biogeographic distributions. Evidence consistent with NC includes similar niche properties across geographically distant regions. We investigated whether NC was evident in stream diatom morphospecies by modeling species responses to environmental and climatic variables in a set of calibration sites (from the US) and then evaluated the models with test sets (from France, Finland, New Zealand, Antilles and La Réunion). We also examined whether diatom species showed congruency in environmental niche optima and niche breadths between the study regions, and whether species occupancy and functional traits influenced the observed patterns. We used boosted regression tree models with local environmental variables and climatic variables as predictors. We detected low NC in both environmental and climate models and a lack of consistent differences in NC between widely distributed and regionally rare species and among functional groups. For all species, diatom environmental and climatic optima varied clearly between the regions but showed some positive relationships especially for pH and total phosphorus. Diatom niche breadths were only weakly correlated between the US and the other regions. We demonstrated that diatoms showed overall relatively little NC globally, and NC was especially low for climatic variables. Collectively, these findings suggest that there may exist locally adapted lineages within the diatom morphospecies or diatoms possess some adaptation potential for differences in temperature. We argue that in diatoms, environmental and especially climate models may not be transferrable in space globally but need regional diatom data for calibration because species niches seem to differ among geographical regions.     

A stochastic biodiversity model with overlapping niche structure

The niche is a fundamental ecological concept that underpins many explanations of patterns of biodiversity. The complexity of niche processes in ecological systems, however, means that it is difficult to capture them accurately in theoretical models of community assembly. In this study, we build upon simple neutral biodiversity models by adding the important ingredient of overlapping niche structure. Our model is spatially implicit and contains a fixed number of equal-sized habitats. Each species in the metacommunity arises through a speciation event; at which time, it is randomly assigned a fundamental niche or set of environments/habitats in which it can persist. Within each habitat, species compete with other species that have different but overlapping fundamental niches. Species abundances then change through ecological drift; each, however, is constrained by its maximum niche breadth and by the presence of other species in its habitats. Using our model, we derive analytical expressions for steady-state species abundance distributions, steady-state distributions of niche breadth across individuals and across species, and dynamic distributions of niche breadth across species. With this framework, we identify the conditions that produce the log-series species abundance distribution familiar from neutral models. We then identify how overlapping niche structure can lead to other species abundance distributions and, in particular, ask whether these new distributions differ significantly from species abundance distributions predicted by non-overlapping niche models. Finally, we extend our analysis to consider additional distributions associated with realized niche breadths. Overall, our results show that models with overlapping niches can exhibit behavior similar to neutral models, with the caveat that species with narrow fundamental niche breadths will be very rare. If narrow-niche species are common, it must be because they are in a non-overlapping niche or have countervailing advantages over broad-niche species. This result highlights the role that niches can play in establishing demographic neutrality.     

A Mechanistic Niche Model for Measuring Species' Distributional Responses to Seasonal Temperature Gradients

Niche theory is central to understanding how species respond geographically to climate change. It defines a species'' realized niche in a biological community, its fundamental niche as determined by physiology, and its potential niche—the fundamental niche in a given environment or geographic space. However, most predictions of the effects of climate change on species'' distributions are limited to correlative models of the realized niche, which assume that species are in distributional equilibrium with respect to the variables or gradients included in the model. Here, I present a mechanistic niche model that measures species'' responses to major seasonal temperature gradients that interact with the physiology of the organism. I then use lethal physiological temperatures to parameterize the model for bird species in North and South America and show that most focal bird species are not in direct physiological equilibrium with the gradients. Results also show that most focal bird species possess broad thermal tolerances encompassing novel climates that could become available with climate change. I conclude with discussion of how mechanistic niche models may be used to (i) gain insights into the processes that cause species to respond to climate change and (ii) build more accurate correlative distribution models in birds and other species.     

Effect of climate change in lizards of the genus Xenosaurus (Xenosauridae) based on projected changes in climatic suitability and climatic niche conservatism

Accelerated climate change represents a major threat to the health of the planet's biodiversity. Particularly, lizards of the genus Xenosaurus might be negatively affected by this phenomenon because several of its species have restricted distributions, low vagility, and preference for low temperatures. No study, however, has examined the climatic niche of the species of this genus and how their distribution might be influenced by different climate change scenarios. In this project, we used a maximum entropy approach to model the climatic niche of 10 species of the genus Xenosaurus under present and future suitable habitat, considering a climatic niche conservatism context. Therefore, we performed a similarity analysis of the climatic niche between each species of the genus Xenosaurus. Our results suggest that a substantial decrease in suitable habitat for all species will occur by 2070. Among the most affected species, X. tzacualtipantecus will not have suitable conditions according to its climatic niche requirements and X. phalaroanthereon will lose 85.75% of its current suitable area. On the other hand, we found low values of conservatism of the climatic niche among species. Given the limited capacity of dispersion and the habitat specificity of these lizards, it seems unlikely that fast changes would occur in the distribution of these species facing climate change. The low conservatism in climatic niche we found in Xenosaurus suggests that these species might have the capacity to adapt to the new environmental conditions originated by climate change.     

Climatic niche divergence and habitat suitability of eight alien invasive weeds in China under climate change

Testing climatic niche divergence and modeling habitat suitability under conditions of climate change are important for developing strategies to limit the introduction and expansion of alien invasive weeds (AIWs) and providing important ecological and evolutionary insights. We assessed climatic niches in both native and invasive ranges as well as habitat suitability under climate change for eight representative Chinese AIWs from the American continent. We used climatic variables associated with occurrence records and developed ecological niche models with Maxent. Interestingly, the climatic niches of all eight AIWs diverged significantly between the native and invasive ranges (the American continent and China). Furthermore, the AIWs showed larger climatic niche breadths in the invasive ranges than in the native ranges. Our results suggest that climatic niche shifts between native and invasive ranges occurred. Thus, the occurrence records of both native and invasive regions must be considered when modeling and predicting the spatial distributions of AIWs under current and future climate scenarios. Owing to high habitat suitability, AIWs were more likely to expand into regions of low latitude, and future climate change was predicted to result in a shift in the AIWs in Qinghai and Tibet (regions of higher altitude) as well as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu (regions of higher latitude). Our results suggest that we need measures to prevent and control AIW expansion at the country‐wide level.     

NICHE AND RANGE SIZE PATTERNS SUGGEST THAT SPECIATION BEGINS IN SMALL,ECOLOGICALLY DIVERGED POPULATIONS IN NORTH AMERICAN MONKEYFLOWERS (MIMULUS SPP.)

Closely related species (e.g., sister taxa) often occupy very different ecological niches and can exhibit large differences in geographic distributions despite their shared evolutionary history. Budding speciation is one process that may partially explain how differences in niche and distribution characteristics may rapidly evolve. Budding speciation is the process through which new species form as initially small colonizing populations that acquire reproductive isolation. This mode of species formation predicts that, at the time of speciation, sister species should have highly asymmetrical distributions. We tested this hypothesis in North American monkeyflowers, a diverse clade with a robust phylogeny, using data on geographical ranges, climate, and plant community attributes. We found that recently diverged sister pairs have highly asymmetrical ranges and niche breadths, relative to older sister pairs. Additionally, we found that sister species occupy distinct environmental niche positions, and that 80% of sister species have completely or partially overlapping distributions (i.e., are broadly sympatric). Together, these results suggest that budding speciation has occurred frequently in Mimulus, that it has likely taken place both inside the range and on the range periphery, and that observed divergences in habitat and resource use could be associated with speciation in small populations.     

Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America

Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate‐driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species‐specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate‐driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over‐predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions.