Ensemble Modeling of the Likely Public Health Impact of a Pre-Erythrocytic Malaria Vaccine

Background

The RTS,S malaria vaccine may soon be licensed. Models of impact of such vaccines have mainly considered deployment via the World Health Organization''s Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in areas of stable endemic transmission of Plasmodium falciparum, and have been calibrated for such settings. Their applicability to low transmission settings is unclear. Evaluations of the efficiency of different deployment strategies in diverse settings should consider uncertainties in model structure.

Methods and Findings

An ensemble of 14 individual-based stochastic simulation models of P. falciparum dynamics, with differing assumptions about immune decay, transmission heterogeneity, and treatment access, was constructed. After fitting to an extensive library of field data, each model was used to predict the likely health benefits of RTS,S deployment, via EPI (with or without catch-up vaccinations), supplementary vaccination of school-age children, or mass vaccination every 5 y. Settings with seasonally varying transmission, with overall pre-intervention entomological inoculation rates (EIRs) of two, 11, and 20 infectious bites per person per annum, were considered. Predicted benefits of EPI vaccination programs over the simulated 14-y time horizon were dependent on duration of protection. Nevertheless, EPI strategies (with an initial catch-up phase) averted the most deaths per dose at the higher EIRs, although model uncertainty increased with EIR. At two infectious bites per person per annum, mass vaccination strategies substantially reduced transmission, leading to much greater health effects per dose, even at modest coverage.

Conclusions

In higher transmission settings, EPI strategies will be most efficient, but vaccination additional to the EPI in targeted low transmission settings, even at modest coverage, might be more efficient than national-level vaccination of infants. The feasibility and economics of mass vaccination, and the circumstances under which vaccination will avert epidemics, remain unclear. The approach of using an ensemble of models provides more secure conclusions than a single-model approach, and suggests greater confidence in predictions of health effects for lower transmission settings than for higher ones. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

What Should Vaccine Developers Ask? Simulation of the Effectiveness of Malaria Vaccines

Background

A number of different malaria vaccine candidates are currently in pre-clinical or clinical development. Even though they vary greatly in their characteristics, it is unlikely that any of them will provide long-lasting sterilizing immunity against the malaria parasite. There is great uncertainty about what the minimal vaccine profile should be before registration is worthwhile; how to allocate resources between different candidates with different profiles; which candidates to consider combining; and what deployment strategies to consider.

Methods and Findings

We use previously published stochastic simulation models, calibrated against extensive epidemiological data, to make quantitative predictions of the population effects of malaria vaccines on malaria transmission, morbidity and mortality. The models are fitted and simulations obtained via volunteer computing. We consider a range of endemic malaria settings with deployment of vaccines via the Expanded program on immunization (EPI), with and without additional booster doses, and also via 5-yearly mass campaigns for a range of coverages. The simulation scenarios account for the dynamic effects of natural and vaccine induced immunity, for treatment of clinical episodes, and for births, ageing and deaths in the cohort. Simulated pre-erythrocytic vaccines have greatest benefits in low endemic settings (EIR of 84) PEV may lead to increased incidence of severe disease in the long term, if efficacy is moderate to low (<70%). Blood stage vaccines (BSV) are most useful in high transmission settings, and are comparable to PEV for low transmission settings. Combinations of PEV and BSV generally perform little better than the best of the contributing components. A minimum half-life of protection of 2–3 years appears to be a precondition for substantial epidemiological effects. Herd immunity effects can be achieved with even moderately effective (>20%) malaria vaccines (either PEV or BSV) when deployed through mass campaigns targeting all age-groups as well as EPI, and especially if combined with highly efficacious transmission-blocking components.

Conclusions

We present for the first time a stochastic simulation approach to compare likely effects on morbidity, mortality and transmission of a range of malaria vaccines and vaccine combinations in realistic epidemiological and health systems settings. The results raise several issues for vaccine clinical development, in particular appropriateness of vaccine types for different transmission settings; the need to assess transmission to the vector and duration of protection; and the importance of deployment additional to the EPI, which again may make the issue of number of doses required more critical. To test the validity and robustness of our conclusions there is a need for further modeling (and, of course, field research) using alternative formulations for both natural and vaccine induced immunity. Evaluation of alternative deployment strategies outside EPI needs to consider the operational implications of different approaches to mass vaccination.     

T cell responses to the RTS,S/AS01(E) and RTS,S/AS02(D) malaria candidate vaccines administered according to different schedules to Ghanaian children

Background

The Plasmodium falciparum pre-erythrocytic stage candidate vaccine RTS,S is being developed for protection of young children against malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. RTS,S formulated with the liposome based adjuvant AS01_E or the oil-in-water based adjuvant AS02_D induces P. falciparum circumsporozoite (CSP) antigen-specific antibody and T cell responses which have been associated with protection in the experimental malaria challenge model in adults.

Methods

This study was designed to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity induced over a 19 month period by three vaccination schedules (0,1-, 0,1,2- and 0,1,7-month) of RTS,S/AS01_E and RTS,S/AS02_D in children aged 5–17 months in two research centers in Ghana. Control Rabies vaccine using the 0,1,2-month schedule was used in one of two study sites.

Results

Whole blood antigen stimulation followed by intra-cellular cytokine staining showed RTS,S/AS01_E induced CSP specific CD4 T cells producing IL-2, TNF-α, and IFN-γ. Higher T cell responses were induced by a 0,1,7-month immunization schedule as compared with a 0,1- or 0,1,2-month schedule. RTS,S/AS01_E induced higher CD4 T cell responses as compared to RTS,S/AS02_D when given on a 0,1,7-month schedule.

Conclusions

These findings support further Phase III evaluation of RTS,S/AS01_E. The role of immune effectors and immunization schedules on vaccine protection are currently under evaluation.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00360230","term_id":"NCT00360230"}}NCT00360230     

Impact of RTS,S/AS02A and RTS,S/AS01B on Genotypes of P. falciparum in Adults Participating in a Malaria Vaccine Clinical Trial

Objective

RTS,S, a candidate vaccine for malaria, is a recombinant protein expressed in yeast containing part of the circumsporozoite protein (CSP) sequence of 3D7 strain of Plasmodium falciparum linked to the hepatitis B surface antigen in a hybrid protein. The RTS,S antigen is formulated with GSK Biologicals'' proprietary Adjuvant Systems AS02_A or AS01_B. A recent trial of the RTS,S/AS02_A and RTS,S/AS01_B vaccines evaluated safety, immunogenicity and impact on the development of parasitemia of the two formulations. Parasite isolates from this study were used to determine the molecular impact of RTS,S/AS02_A and RTS,S/AS01_B on the multiplicity of infection (MOI) and the csp allelic characteristics of subsequent parasitemias.

Design

The distribution of csp sequences and the MOI of the infecting strains were examined at baseline and in break-through infections from vaccinated individuals and from those receiving a non-malarial vaccine.

Setting

The study was conducted in Kombewa District, western Kenya.

Participants

Semi-immune adults from the three study arms provided isolates at baseline and during break-through infections.

Outcome

Parasite isolates used for determining MOI and divergence of csp T cell–epitopes were 191 at baseline and 87 from break-through infections.

Results

Grouping recipients of RTS,S/AS01_A and RTS,S/AS02_B together, vaccine recipients identified as parasite-positive by microscopy contained significantly fewer parasite genotypes than recipients of the rabies vaccine comparator (median in pooled RTS,S groups: 3 versus 4 in controls, P = 0.0313). When analyzed separately, parasitaemic individuals in the RTS,S/AS01_B group, but not the RTS,S/AS02_A group, were found to have significantly fewer genotypes than the comparator group. Two individual amino acids found in the vaccine construct (Q339 in Th2R and D371 in Th3R) were observed to differ in incidence between vaccine and comparator groups but in different directions; parasites harboring Q339 were less common among pooled RTS,S/AS vaccine recipients than among recipients of rabies vaccine, whereas parasites with D371 were more common among the RTS,S/AS groups.

Conclusions

It is concluded that both RTS,S/AS vaccines reduce multiplicity of infection. Our results do not support the hypothesis that RTS,S/AS vaccines elicit preferential effects against pfcsp alleles with sequence similarity to the 3D7 pfcsp sequence employed in the vaccine construct.     

Circumsporozoite-specific T cell responses in children vaccinated with RTS,S/AS01E and protection against P falciparum clinical malaria

Background

RTS,S/AS01_E is the lead candidate pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine. In Phase IIb field trials the safety profile was acceptable and the efficacy was 53% (95%CI 31%–72%) for protecting children against clinical malaria caused by P. falciparum. We studied CS-specific T cell responses in order to identify correlates of protection.

Methods and Findings

We used intracellular cytokine staining (for IL2, IFNγ, and TNFα), ex-vivo ELISPOTs (IFNγ and IL2) and IFNγ cultured ELISPOT assays to characterize the CS-specific cellular responses in 407 children (5–17 months of age) in a phase IIb randomized controlled trial of RTS,S/AS01_E ({"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00380393","term_id":"NCT00380393"}}NCT00380393). RTS,S/ AS01_E vaccinees had higher frequencies of CS-specific CD4+ T cells producing IFNγ, TNFα or IL2 compared to control vaccinees. In a multivariable analysis TNFα⁺ CD4⁺ T cells were independently associated with a reduced risk for clinical malaria among RTS,S/AS01_E vaccinees (HR = 0.64, 95%CI 0.49–0.86, p = 0.002). There was a non-significant tendency towards reduced risk among control vaccinees (HR = 0.80, 95%CI 0.62–1.03, p = 0.084), albeit with lower CS-specific T cell frequencies and higher rates of clinical malaria. When data from both RTS,S/AS01_E vaccinees and control vaccinees were combined (with adjusting for vaccination group), the HR was 0.74 (95%CI 0.62–0.89, p = 0.001). After a Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons (n-18), the finding was still significant at p = 0.018. There was no significant correlation between cultured or ex vivo ELISPOT data and protection from clinical malaria. The combination of TNFα⁺ CD4⁺ T cells and anti-CS antibody statistically accounted for the protective effect of vaccination in a Cox regression model.

Conclusions

RTS,S/AS01_E induces CS-specific Th1 T cell responses in young children living in a malaria endemic area. The combination of anti-CS antibody concentrations titers and CS-specific TNFα⁺ CD4⁺ T cells could account for the level of protection conferred by RTS,S/AS01_E. The correlation between CS-specific TNFα⁺ CD4⁺ T cells and protection needs confirmation in other datasets.     

Randomized Controlled Trial of RTS,S/AS02D and RTS,S/AS01E Malaria Candidate Vaccines Given According to Different Schedules in Ghanaian Children

Background

The target delivery channel of RTS,S candidate malaria vaccines in malaria-endemic countries in Africa is the World Health Organisation Expanded Program on Immunization. As an Adjuvant System, age de-escalation and schedule selection step, this study assessed 3 schedules of RTS,S/AS01_E and RTS,S/AS02_D in infants and young children 5–17 months of age in Ghana.

Methodology

A Phase II, partially-blind randomized controlled study (blind to vaccine, not to schedule), of 19 months duration was conducted in two (2) centres in Ghana between August 2006 and May 2008. Subjects were allocated randomly (1∶1∶1∶1∶1∶1) to one of six study groups at each study site, each defining which vaccine should be given and by which schedule (0,1-, 0,1,2- or 0,1,7-months). For the 0,1,2-month schedule participants received RTS,S/AS01_E or rabies vaccine at one center and RTS,S/AS01_E or RTS,S/AS02_D at the other. For the other schedules at both study sites, they received RTS,S/AS01_E or RTS,S/AS02_D. The primary outcome measure was the occurrence of serious adverse events until 10 months post dose 1.

Results

The number of serious adverse events reported across groups was balanced. One child had a simple febrile convulsion, which evolved favourably without sequelae, considered to be related to RTS,S/AS01_E vaccination. Low grade reactions occurred slightly more frequently in recipients of RTS,S/AS than rabies vaccines; grade 3 reactions were infrequent. Less local reactogenicity occurred with RTS,S/AS01_E than RTS,S/AS02_D. Both candidate vaccines were highly immunogenic for anti-circumsporozoite and anti-Hepatitis B Virus surface antigen antibodies. Recipients of RTS,S/AS01_E compared to RTS,S/AS02_D had higher peak anti-circumsporozoite antibody responses for all 3 schedules. Three dose schedules were more immunogenic than 2 dose schedules. Area under the curve analyses for anti-circumsporozoite antibodies were comparable between the 0,1,2- and 0,1,7-month RTS,S/AS01_E schedules.

Conclusions

Both candidate malaria vaccines were well tolerated. Anti-circumsporozoite responses were greater with RTS,S/AS01_E than RTS,S/AS02_D and when 3 rather than 2 doses were given. This study supports the selection of RTS,S/AS01_E and a 3 dose schedule for further development in children and infants.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00360230","term_id":"NCT00360230"}}NCT00360230     

Safety, immunogenicity and duration of protection of the RTS,S/AS02(D) malaria vaccine: one year follow-up of a randomized controlled phase I/IIb trial

Background

The RTS,S/AS02_D vaccine has been shown to have a promising safety profile, to be immunogenic and to confer protection against malaria in children and infants.

Methods and Findings

We did a randomized, controlled, phase I/IIb trial of RTS,S/AS02_D given at 10, 14 and 18 weeks of age staggered with routine immunization vaccines in 214 Mozambican infants. The study was double-blind until the young child completed 6 months of follow-up over which period vaccine efficacy against new Plasmodium falciparum infections was estimated at 65.9% (95% CI 42.6–79.8, p<0.0001). We now report safety, immunogenicity and estimated efficacy against clinical malaria up to 14 months after study start. Vaccine efficacy was assessed using Cox regression models. The frequency of serious adverse events was 32.7% in the RTS,S/AS02_D and 31.8% in the control group. The geometric mean titers of anti-circumsporozoite antibodies declined from 199.9 to 7.3 EU/mL from one to 12 months post dose three of RTS,S/AS02_D, remaining 15-fold higher than in the control group. Vaccine efficacy against clinical malaria was 33% (95% CI: −4.3–56.9, p = 0.076) over 14 months of follow-up. The hazard rate of disease per 2-fold increase in anti-CS titters was reduced by 84% (95% CI 35.1–88.2, p = 0.003).

Conclusion

The RTS,S/AS02_D malaria vaccine administered to young infants has a good safety profile and remains efficacious over 14 months. A strong association between anti-CS antibodies and risk of clinical malaria has been described for the first time. The results also suggest a decrease of both anti-CS antibodies and vaccine efficacy over time.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00197028","term_id":"NCT00197028"}}NCT00197028     

Evaluation of RTS,S/AS02A and RTS,S/AS01B in Adults in a High Malaria Transmission Area

Background

This study advances the clinical development of the RTS,S/AS01B candidate malaria vaccine to malaria endemic populations. As a primary objective it compares the safety and reactogenicity of RTS,S/AS01B to the more extensively evaluated RTS,S/AS02A vaccine.

Methodology

A Phase IIb, single centre, double-blind, controlled trial of 6 months duration with a subsequent 6 month single-blind follow-up conducted in Kisumu West District, Kenya between August 2005 and August 2006. 255 healthy adults aged 18 to 35 years were randomized (1∶1∶1) to receive 3 doses of RTS,S/AS02A, RTS,S/AS01B or rabies vaccine (Rabipur®; Chiron Behring GmbH) at months 0, 1, 2. The primary objective was the occurrence of severe (grade 3) solicited or unsolicited general (i.e. systemic) adverse events (AEs) during 7 days follow up after each vaccination.

Principal Findings

Both candidate vaccines had a good safety profile and were well tolerated. One grade 3 systemic AE occurred within 7 days of vaccination (RTS,S/AS01B group). No unsolicited AEs or SAEs were related to vaccine. A marked increase in anti-CS antibody GMTs was observed post Dose 2 of both RTS,S/AS01B (31.6 EU/mL [95% CI: 23.9 to 41.6]) and RTS,S/AS02A (16.7 EU/mL [95% CI: 12.9 to 21.7]). A further increase was observed post Dose 3 in both the RTS,S/AS01B (41.4 EU/mL [95% CI: 31.7 to 54.2]) and RTS,S/AS02A (21.4 EU/mL [95% CI: 16.0 to 28.7]) groups. Anti-CS antibody GMTs were significantly greater with RTS,S/AS01B compared to RTS,S/AS02A at all time points post Dose 2 and Dose 3. Both candidate vaccines produced strong anti-HBs responses. Vaccine efficacy in the RTS,S/AS01B group was 29.5% (95% CI: −15.4 to 56.9, p = 0.164) and in the RTS,S/AS02A group 31.7% (95% CI: −11.6 to 58.2, p = 0.128).

Conclusions

Both candidate malaria vaccines were well tolerated over a 12 month surveillance period. A more favorable immunogenicity profile was observed with RTS,S/AS01B than with RTS,S/AS02A.

Trial Registration

Clinicaltrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00197054","term_id":"NCT00197054"}}NCT00197054     

Attitudinal and demographic predictors of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine (MMR) uptake during the UK catch-up campaign 2008-09: cross-sectional survey

Background and Objective

Continued suboptimal measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine uptake has re-established measles epidemic risk, prompting a UK catch-up campaign in 2008–09 for children who missed MMR doses at scheduled age. Predictors of vaccine uptake during catch-ups are poorly understood, however evidence from routine schedule uptake suggests demographics and attitudes may be central. This work explored this hypothesis using a robust evidence-based measure.

Design

Cross-sectional self-administered questionnaire with objective behavioural outcome.

Setting and Participants

365 UK parents, whose children were aged 5–18 years and had received <2 MMR doses before the 2008–09 UK catch-up started.

Main Outcome Measures

Parents'' attitudes and demographics, parent-reported receipt of invitation to receive catch-up MMR dose(s), and catch-up MMR uptake according to child''s medical record (receipt of MMR doses during year 1 of the catch-up).

Results

Perceived social desirability/benefit of MMR uptake (OR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.09–2.87) and younger child age (OR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.68–0.89) were the only independent predictors of catch-up MMR uptake in the sample overall. Uptake predictors differed by whether the child had received 0 MMR doses or 1 MMR dose before the catch-up. Receipt of catch-up invitation predicted uptake only in the 0 dose group (OR = 3.45, 95% CI = 1.18–10.05), whilst perceived social desirability/benefit of MMR uptake predicted uptake only in the 1 dose group (OR = 9.61, 95% CI = 2.57–35.97). Attitudes and demographics explained only 28% of MMR uptake in the 0 dose group compared with 61% in the 1 dose group.

Conclusions

Catch-up MMR invitations may effectively move children from 0 to 1 MMR doses (unimmunised to partially immunised), whilst attitudinal interventions highlighting social benefits of MMR may effectively move children from 1 to 2 MMR doses (partially to fully immunised). Older children may be best targeted through school-based programmes. A formal evaluation element should be incorporated into future catch-up campaigns to inform their continuing improvement.     

A Randomized Trial Assessing the Safety and Immunogenicity of AS01 and AS02 Adjuvanted RTS,S Malaria Vaccine Candidates in Children in Gabon

Background

The malaria vaccine candidate antigen RTS,S includes parts of the pre-erythrocytic stage circumsporozoite protein fused to the Hepatitis B surface antigen. Two Adjuvant Systems are in development for this vaccine, an oil-in water emulsion – based formulation (AS02) and a formulation based on liposomes (AS01).

Methods & Principal Findings

In this Phase II, double-blind study ({"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00307021","term_id":"NCT00307021"}}NCT00307021), 180 healthy Gabonese children aged 18 months to 4 years were randomized to receive either RTS,S/AS01_E or RTS,S/AS02_D, on a 0–1–2 month vaccination schedule. The children were followed-up daily for six days after each vaccination and monthly for 14 months. Blood samples were collected at 4 time-points. Both vaccines were well tolerated. Safety parameters were distributed similarly between the two groups. Both vaccines elicited a strong specific immune response after Doses 2 and 3 with a ratio of anti-CS GMT titers (AS02_D/AS01_E) of 0.88 (95% CI: 0.68–1.15) post-Dose 3. After Doses 2 and 3 of experimental vaccines, anti-CS and anti-HBs antibody GMTs were higher in children who had been previously vaccinated with at least one dose of hepatitis B vaccine compared to those not previously vaccinated.

Conclusions

RTS,S/AS01_E proved similarly as well tolerated and immunogenic as RTS,S/AS02_D, completing an essential step in the age de-escalation process within the RTS,S clinical development plan.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov. {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00307021","term_id":"NCT00307021"}}NCT00307021     

Multiple treatment comparisons in epilepsy monotherapy trials

Background

Previous trials of the RTS, S malaria candidate vaccine have shown that this vaccine is safe, tolerated and immunogenic. The development plan for this vaccine aims at administering it in the first year of life through the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI). The objective was to evaluate the safety and reactogenicity of RTS, S/AS02D (0.5 ml dose), a pediatric formulation of GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals' current malaria candidate vaccine RTS, S/AS02A (0.25 ml dose). A 0.5 ml dose of AS02D is composed of the same active ingredients in the same quantities as in a 0.25 ml dose of AS02A and has been developed to be easily introduced into routine EPI practices.

Methods

We performed a phase I/IIb randomized double-blind bridging study in a malaria-endemic region of Mozambique, to compare the safety and immunogenicity of both candidate vaccines with the aim of replacing RTS, S/AS02A with RTS, S/AS02D as the candidate pediatric vaccine. 200 Mozambican children aged 3 to 5 years were randomized 1:1 to receive one of the 2 vaccines according to a 0, 1, 2 month schedule.

Results

Both vaccines were safe and had similar reactogenicity profiles. All subjects with paired pre and post-vaccination samples showed a vaccine response with respect to anti-circumsporozoite (CS) antibodies irrespective of initial anti-CS serostatus. Geometric mean titers (GMTs) were 191 EU/ml (95% CI 150–242) in recipients of RTS, S/AS02D compared to 180 EU/ml (95% CI 146–221) in recipients of RTS, S/AS02A. For the anti-hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), all subjects were seroprotected at day 90, and the GMTs were 23978 mIU/ml (95% CI 17896–32127) in RTS, S/AS02D recipients and 17410 mIU/ml (95% CI 13322–22752) in RTS, S/AS02A recipients. There was a decrease in anti-CS GMTs between months 3 and 14 in both groups (191 vs 22 EU/mL in RTS, S/AS02D group and 180 vs 29 EU/mL in RTS, S/AS02A group).

Conclusion

Our data show that the RTS, S/AS02D is safe, well tolerated, and demonstrates non-inferiority (defined as upper limit of the 95% confidence interval of the anti-CS GMT ratio of RTS, S/AS02A to RTS, S/AS02D below 3.0) of the antibody responses to circumsporozoite and HBsAg induced by the RTS, S/AS02D as compared to the RTS, S/AS02A.     

Estimated drug overdose deaths averted by North America's first medically-supervised safer injection facility

Background

Illicit drug overdose remains a leading cause of premature mortality in urban settings worldwide. We sought to estimate the number of deaths potentially averted by the implementation of a medically supervised safer injection facility (SIF) in Vancouver, Canada.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The number of potentially averted deaths was calculated using an estimate of the local ratio of non-fatal to fatal overdoses. Inputs were derived from counts of overdose deaths by the British Columbia Vital Statistics Agency and non-fatal overdose rates from published estimates. Potentially-fatal overdoses were defined as events within the SIF that required the provision of naloxone, a 911 call or an ambulance. Point estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) were calculated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Between March 1, 2004 and July 1, 2008 there were 1004 overdose events in the SIF of which 453 events matched our definition of potentially fatal. In 2004, 2005 and 2006 there were 32, 37 and 38 drug-induced deaths in the SIF''s neighbourhood. Owing to the wide range of non-fatal overdose rates reported in the literature (between 5% and 30% per year) we performed sensitivity analyses using non-fatal overdose rates of 50, 200 and 300 per 1,000 person years. Using these model inputs, the number of averted deaths were, respectively: 50.9 (95% CI: 23.6–78.1); 12.6 (95% CI: 9.6–15.7); 8.4 (95% CI: 6.5–10.4) during the study period, equal to 1.9 to 11.7 averted deaths per annum.

Conclusions/Significance

Based on a conservative estimate of the local ratio of non-fatal to fatal overdoses, the potentially fatal overdoses in the SIF during the study period could have resulted in between 8 and 51 deaths had they occurred outside the facility, or from 6% to 37% of the total overdose mortality burden in the neighborhood during the study period. These data should inform the ongoing debates over the future of the pilot project.     

Modelling the costs and effects of selective and universal hospital admission screening for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus

Background

Screening at hospital admission for carriage of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has been proposed as a strategy to reduce nosocomial infections. The objective of this study was to determine the long-term costs and health benefits of selective and universal screening for MRSA at hospital admission, using both PCR-based and chromogenic media-based tests in various settings.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A simulation model of MRSA transmission was used to determine costs and effects over 15 years from a US healthcare perspective. We compared admission screening together with isolation of identified carriers against a baseline policy without screening or isolation. Strategies included selective screening of high risk patients or universal admission screening, with PCR-based or chromogenic media-based tests, in medium (5%) or high nosocomial prevalence (15%) settings. The costs of screening and isolation per averted MRSA infection were lowest using selective chromogenic-based screening in high and medium prevalence settings, at $4,100 and $10,300, respectively. Replacing the chromogenic-based test with a PCR-based test costs $13,000 and $36,200 per additional infection averted, and subsequent extension to universal screening with PCR would cost $131,000 and $232,700 per additional infection averted, in high and medium prevalence settings respectively. Assuming $17,645 benefit per infection averted, the most cost-saving strategies in high and medium prevalence settings were selective screening with PCR and selective screening with chromogenic, respectively.

Conclusions/Significance

Admission screening costs $4,100–$21,200 per infection averted, depending on strategy and setting. Including financial benefits from averted infections, screening could well be cost saving.     

Impact of the RTS,S malaria vaccine candidate on naturally acquired antibody responses to multiple asexual blood stage antigens

Background

Partial protective efficacy lasting up to 43 months after vaccination with the RTS,S malaria vaccine has been reported in one cohort (C1) of a Phase IIb trial in Mozambique, but waning efficacy was observed in a smaller contemporaneous cohort (C2). We hypothesized that low dose exposure to asexual stage parasites resulting from partial pre-erythrocytic protection afforded by RTS,S may contribute to long-term vaccine efficacy to clinical disease, which was not observed in C2 due to intense active detection of infection and treatment.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Serum collected 6 months post-vaccination was screened for antibodies to asexual blood stage antigens AMA-1, MSP-1₄₂, EBA-175, DBL-α and variant surface antigens of the R29 laboratory strain (VSA_R29). Effect of IgG on the prospective hazard of clinical malaria was estimated. No difference was observed in antibody levels between RTS,S and control vaccine when all children aged 1–4 years at enrollment in both C1 and C2 were analyzed together, and no effects were observed between cohort and vaccine group. RTS,S-vaccinated children <2 years of age at enrollment had lower levels of IgG for AMA-1 and MSP-1₄₂ (p<0.01, all antigens), while no differences were observed in children ≥2 years. Lower risk of clinical malaria was associated with high IgG to EBA-175 and VSA_R29 in C2 only (Hazard Ratio [HR]: 0.76, 95% CI 0.66–0.88; HR: 0.75, 95% CI 0.62–0.92, respectively).

Conclusions

Vaccination with RTS,S modestly reduces anti-AMA-1 and anti-MSP-1 antibodies in very young children. However, for antigens associated with lower risk of clinical malaria, there were no vaccine group or cohort-specific effects, and age did not influence antibody levels between treatment groups for these antigens. The antigens tested do not explain the difference in protective efficacy in C1 and C2. Other less-characterized antigens or VSA may be important to protection.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00197041","term_id":"NCT00197041"}}NCT00197041     

Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: A modelling study

BackgroundThe RTS,S/AS01 vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection completed phase III trials in 2014 and demonstrated efficacy against clinical malaria of approximately 36% over 4 years for a 4-dose schedule in children aged 5–17 months. Pilot vaccine implementation has recently begun in 3 African countries. If the pilots demonstrate both a positive health impact and resolve remaining safety concerns, wider roll-out could be recommended from 2021 onwards. Vaccine demand may, however, outstrip initial supply. We sought to identify where vaccine introduction should be prioritised to maximise public health impact under a range of supply constraints using mathematical modelling.Methods and findingsUsing a mathematical model of P. falciparum malaria transmission and RTS,S vaccine impact, we estimated the clinical cases and deaths averted in children aged 0–5 years in sub-Saharan Africa under 2 scenarios for vaccine coverage (100% and realistic) and 2 scenarios for other interventions (current coverage and World Health Organization [WHO] Global Technical Strategy targets). We used a prioritisation algorithm to identify potential allocative efficiency gains from prioritising vaccine allocation among countries or administrative units to maximise cases or deaths averted. If malaria burden at introduction is similar to current levels—assuming realistic vaccine coverage and country-level prioritisation in areas with parasite prevalence >10%—we estimate that 4.3 million malaria cases (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.8–6.8 million) and 22,000 deaths (95% CrI 11,000–35,000) in children younger than 5 years could be averted annually at a dose constraint of 30 million. This decreases to 3.0 million cases (95% CrI 2.0–4.7 million) and 14,000 deaths (95% CrI 7,000–23,000) at a dose constraint of 20 million, and increases to 6.6 million cases (95% CrI 4.2–10.8 million) and 38,000 deaths (95% CrI 18,000–61,000) at a dose constraint of 60 million. At 100% vaccine coverage, these impact estimates increase to 5.2 million cases (95% CrI 3.5–8.2 million) and 27,000 deaths (95% CrI 14,000–43,000), 3.9 million cases (95% CrI 2.7–6.0 million) and 19,000 deaths (95% CrI 10,000–30,000), and 10.0 million cases (95% CrI 6.7–15.7 million) and 51,000 deaths (95% CrI 25,000–82,000), respectively. Under realistic vaccine coverage, if the vaccine is prioritised sub-nationally, 5.3 million cases (95% CrI 3.5–8.2 million) and 24,000 deaths (95% CrI 12,000–38,000) could be averted at a dose constraint of 30 million. Furthermore, sub-national prioritisation would allow introduction in almost double the number of countries compared to national prioritisation (21 versus 11). If vaccine introduction is prioritised in the 3 pilot countries (Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi), health impact would be reduced, but this effect becomes less substantial (change of <5%) if 50 million or more doses are available. We did not account for within-country variation in vaccine coverage, and the optimisation was based on a single outcome measure, therefore this study should be used to understand overall trends rather than guide country-specific allocation.ConclusionsThese results suggest that the impact of constraints in vaccine supply on the public health impact of the RTS,S malaria vaccine could be reduced by introducing the vaccine at the sub-national level and prioritising countries with the highest malaria incidence.

Alexandra Hogan and colleagues explore strategies to optimize vaccine allocation for maximum public health benefit in the face of potential supply constraints.     

Highest Vaccine Uptake after School-Based Delivery - A County-Level Evaluation of the Implementation Strategies for HPV Catch-Up Vaccination in Sweden

Background

The Swedish school-based vaccination programme offers HPV vaccine to girls born ≥1999 in 5-6th grade. In 2012, all counties introduced free-of-charge catch-up vaccination campaigns targeting girls born 1993–1998. Varying vaccine uptake in the catch-up group by December 2012 suggested that some implementation strategies were more successful than others. In order to inform future vaccination campaigns, we assessed the impact of different implementation strategies on the county-level catch-up vaccine uptake.

Methods

We conducted an ecological study including all Swedish counties (n = 21), asking regional health offices about the information channels they used and where vaccination of the catch-up target group took place in their counties. The uptake of ≥1 dose by 30 September 2014 was estimated using data from the voluntary national vaccination register. We investigated associations between counties’ catch-up vaccine uptake, information channels and vaccination settings by calculating incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), using negative binomial regression models.

Results

County level catch-up vaccine uptake varied between 49–84%. All counties offered vaccination through primary health care settings. Apart from this eight (34%) also offered the vaccine in some of their schools, four (19%) in all their schools, and two (10%) in other health care centres. The information channels most frequently used were: information at the national on-line health care consulting web-page (100%), letter/invitations (90%), and advertisement (81%). Counties offering vaccination to girls in all schools and counties offering vaccination in some of their schools, reached higher vaccine uptake compared to counties not offering vaccination in any of their schools (all schools adjusted IRR: 1.3, 95% CI: 1.1–1.5, some schools adjusted IRR: 1.2, 95% CI: 1.1–1.3).

Conclusion

Counties offering HPV vaccination to catch-up groups in schools reached the highest vaccine uptake. No information channel explained differences in county-level vaccine uptake. Our findings suggest that catch-up vaccination outside the national vaccination program can reach a high uptake at the population level if it is implemented primarily with an organized delivery (e.g. in schools).     

The population impact of a large school-based influenza vaccination campaign

Background

The optimal vaccination strategy to mitigate the impact of influenza epidemics is unclear. In 2005, a countywide school-based influenza vaccination campaign was launched in Knox County, Tennessee (population 385,899). Approximately 41% and 48% of eligible county children aged 5–17 years were immunized with live attenuated influenza vaccine before the 2005–2006 and 2006–2007 influenza seasons, respectively. We sought to determine the population impact of this campaign.

Methods

Laboratory-confirmed influenza data defined influenza seasons. We calculated the incidence of medically attended acute respiratory illness attributable to influenza in Knox and Knox-surrounding counties (concurrent controls) during consecutive seasons (5 precampaign and 2 campaign seasons) using negative binomial regression and rate difference methods. Age-stratified analyses compared the incidence of emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations attributable to influenza.

Results

During precampaign seasons, estimated ED visit rates attributable to influenza were 12.39 (95% CI: 10.34–14.44) per 1000 Knox children aged 5–17 years and similar in Knox-surrounding counties. During the campaign seasons, annual Knox influenza-associated ED visit rates declined relative to rates in Knox-surrounding counties: rate ratios 0.55 (95% CI: 0.27–0.83) and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.56–0.84) for the first and second campaign seasons, respectively. Overall, there were about 35% or 4.86 per 1000 fewer influenza-associated ED visits among Knox County children aged 5–17 years attributable to the campaign. No significant declines in Knox compared to surrounding counties were detected for influenza associated ED visits in children aged <5 years, all adults combined or selected adult age subgroups, although power for these analyses was limited. Alternate rate-difference analyses yielded consistent results.

Conclusion

Vaccination of approximately 45% of Knox school-aged children with influenza vaccine was associated with a 35% annual reduction (4.86 per 1000) in ED visit rates attributable to influenza. Higher vaccination coverage and/or larger studies would be needed to determine whether similar interventions have indirect benefits in other age groups.     

Expanding ART for treatment and prevention of HIV in South Africa: estimated cost and cost-effectiveness 2011-2050

Background

Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) significantly reduces HIV transmission. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of the impact of expanded ART in South Africa.

Methods

We model a best case scenario of 90% annual HIV testing coverage in adults 15–49 years old and four ART eligibility scenarios: CD4 count <200 cells/mm³ (current practice), CD4 count <350, CD4 count <500, all CD4 levels. 2011–2050 outcomes include deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), HIV infections, cost, and cost per DALY averted. Service and ART costs reflect South African data and international generic prices. ART reduces transmission by 92%. We conducted sensitivity analyses.

Results

Expanding ART to CD4 count <350 cells/mm³ prevents an estimated 265,000 (17%) and 1.3 million (15%) new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Cumulative deaths decline 15%, from 12.5 to 10.6 million; DALYs by 14% from 109 to 93 million over 40 years. Costs drop $504 million over 5 years and $3.9 billion over 40 years with breakeven by 2013. Compared with the current scenario, expanding to <500 prevents an additional 585,000 and 3 million new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Expanding to all CD4 levels decreases HIV infections by 3.3 million (45%) and costs by $10 billion over 40 years, with breakeven by 2023. By 2050, using higher ART and monitoring costs, all CD4 levels saves $0.6 billion versus current; other ART scenarios cost $9–194 per DALY averted. If ART reduces transmission by 99%, savings from all CD4 levels reach $17.5 billion. Sensitivity analyses suggest that poor retention and predominant acute phase transmission reduce DALYs averted by 26% and savings by 7%.

Conclusion

Increasing the provision of ART to <350 cells/mm3 may significantly reduce costs while reducing the HIV burden. Feasibility including HIV testing and ART uptake, retention, and adherence should be evaluated.     

The Cost-Effectiveness of Intermittent Preventive Treatment for Malaria in Infants in Sub-Saharan Africa

Background

Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) has been shown to decrease clinical malaria by approximately 30% in the first year of life and is a promising malaria control strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa which can be delivered alongside the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI). To date, there have been limited data on the cost-effectiveness of this strategy using sulfadoxine pyrimethamine (SP) and no published data on cost-effectiveness using other antimalarials.

Methods

We analysed data from 5 countries in sub-Saharan Africa using a total of 5 different IPTi drug regimens; SP, mefloquine (MQ), 3 days of chlorproguanil-dapsone (CD), SP plus 3 days of artesunate (SP-AS3) and 3 days of amodiaquine-artesunate (AQ3-AS3).The cost per malaria episode averted and cost per Disability-Adjusted Life-Year (DALY) averted were modeled using both trial specific protective efficacy (PE) for all IPTi drugs and a pooled PE for IPTi with SP, malaria incidence, an estimated malaria case fatality rate of 1.57%, IPTi delivery costs and country specific provider and household malaria treatment costs.

Findings

In sites where IPTi had a significant effect on reducing malaria, the cost per episode averted for IPTi-SP was very low, USD 1.36–4.03 based on trial specific data and USD 0.68–2.27 based on the pooled analysis. For IPTi using alternative antimalarials, the lowest cost per case averted was for AQ3-AS3 in western Kenya (USD 4.62) and the highest was for MQ in Korowge, Tanzania (USD 18.56). Where efficacious, based only on intervention costs, IPTi was shown to be cost effective in all the sites and highly cost-effective in all but one of the sites, ranging from USD 2.90 (Ifakara, Tanzania with SP) to USD 39.63 (Korogwe, Tanzania with MQ) per DALY averted. In addition, IPTi reduced health system costs and showed significant savings to households from malaria cases averted. A threshold analysis showed that there is room for the IPTi-efficacy to fall and still remain highly cost effective in all sites where IPTi had a statistically significant effect on clinical malaria.

Conclusions

IPTi delivered alongside the EPI is a highly cost effective intervention against clinical malaria with a range of drugs in a range of malaria transmission settings. Where IPTi did not have a statistically significant impact on malaria, generally in low transmission sites, it was not cost effective.     

Influenza-related mortality trends in Japanese and American seniors: evidence for the indirect mortality benefits of vaccinating schoolchildren

Background

The historical Japanese influenza vaccination program targeted at schoolchildren provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the indirect benefits of vaccinating high-transmitter groups to mitigate disease burden among seniors. Here we characterize the indirect mortality benefits of vaccinating schoolchildren based on data from Japan and the US.

Methods

We compared age-specific influenza-related excess mortality rates in Japanese seniors aged ≥65 years during the schoolchildren vaccination program (1978–1994) and after the program was discontinued (1995–2006). Indirect vaccine benefits were adjusted for demographic changes, socioeconomics and dominant influenza subtype; US mortality data were used as a control.

Results

We estimate that the schoolchildren vaccination program conferred a 36% adjusted mortality reduction among Japanese seniors (95%CI: 17–51%), corresponding to ∼1,000 senior deaths averted by vaccination annually (95%CI: 400–1,800). In contrast, influenza-related mortality did not change among US seniors, despite increasing vaccine coverage in this population.

Conclusions

The Japanese schoolchildren vaccination program was associated with substantial indirect mortality benefits in seniors.