一类具有常数迁入且总入口在变化的SIRI传染病模型的稳定性

讨论一类具有常数迁入率,染病类有病死且有效接触率依赖于总人数的SIRI传染病模型.给出了基本再生数σ的表达式.如果σ≤1,则疾病消除平衡点是全局稳定的;如果σ＞1,则存在唯一的传染病平衡点且是局部渐近稳定的.对具有双线性传染率和标准传染率的相应模型,进一步证明了当σ＞1时传染病平衡点的全局稳定性.     

Global Stability of Equilibria in a Two-Sex HPV Vaccination Model

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the primary cause of cervical carcinoma and its precursor lesions, and is associated with a variety of other cancers and diseases. A prophylactic quadrivalent vaccine against oncogenic HPV 16/18 and warts-causing genital HPV 6/11 types is currently available in several countries. Licensure of a bivalent vaccine against oncogenic HPV 16/18 is expected in the near future. This paper presents a two-sex, deterministic model for assessing the potential impact of a prophylactic HPV vaccine with several properties. The model is based on the susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) compartmental structure. Important epidemiological thresholds such as the basic and effective reproduction numbers and a measure of vaccine impact are derived. We find that if the effective reproduction number is greater than unity, there is a locally unstable infection-free equilibrium and a unique, globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium. If the effective reproduction number is less than unity, the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and HPV will be eliminated.     

Rational behavioral response and the transmission of STDs

The susceptible-infected (SI) model is extended by allowing for individual optimal choices of self-protective actions against infection, where agents differ with respect to preferences and costs of self-protection. It is shown that a unique endemic equilibrium prevalence exists when the basic reproductive number of a STD is strictly greater than unity, and that the disease-free equilibrium is the unique steady state equilibrium when the basic reproductive number is less than or equal to one. Unlike in models that take individual behavior as given and fixed, the endemic equilibrium prevalence need not vary monotonically with respect to the basic reproductive number. Specifically, with endogenously determined self-protective behavior, a reduction in the basic reproductive number may in fact increase the endemic equilibrium prevalence. The global stability of the endemic steady state is established for the case of a homogeneous population by showing that, for any non-zero initial disease prevalence, there exists an equilibrium path which converges to the endemic steady state.     

Global stability for cholera epidemic models

Cholera is a water and food borne infectious disease caused by the gram-negative bacterium, Vibrio cholerae. Its dynamics are highly complex owing to the coupling among multiple transmission pathways and different factors in pathogen ecology. Although various mathematical models and clinical studies published in recent years have made important contribution to cholera epidemiology, our knowledge of the disease mechanism remains incomplete at present, largely due to the limited understanding of the dynamics of cholera. In this paper, we conduct global stability analysis for several deterministic cholera epidemic models. These models, incorporating both human population and pathogen V. cholerae concentration, constitute four-dimensional non-linear autonomous systems where the classical Poincaré-Bendixson theory is not applicable. We employ three different techniques, including the monotone dynamical systems, the geometric approach, and Lyapunov functions, to investigate the endemic global stability for several biologically important cases. The analysis and results presented in this paper make building blocks towards a comprehensive study and deeper understanding of the fundamental mechanism in cholera dynamics.     

Global stability of an SEIS epidemic model with recruitment and a varying total population size

This paper considers an SEIS epidemic model that incorporates constant recruitment, disease-caused death and disease latency. The incidence term is of the bilinear mass-action form. It is shown that the global dynamics is completely determined by the basic reproduction number R(0). If R(0)1, a unique endemic equilibrium is globally stable in the interior of the feasible region and the disease persists at the endemic equilibrium.     

Analysis of a dengue disease transmission model

A model for the transmission of dengue fever in a constant human population and variable vector population is discussed. A complete global analysis is given, which uses the results of the theory of competitive systems and stability of periodic orbits, to establish the global stability of the endemic equilibrium. The control measures of the vector population are discussed in terms of the threshold condition, which governs the existence and stability of the endemic equilibrium.     

SVIR epidemic models with vaccination strategies

Vaccination is important for the elimination of infectious diseases. To finish a vaccination process, doses usually should be taken several times and there must be some fixed time intervals between two doses. The vaccinees (susceptible individuals who have started the vaccination process) are different from both susceptible and recovered individuals. Considering the time for them to obtain immunity and the possibility for them to be infected before this, two SVIR models are established to describe continuous vaccination strategy and pulse vaccination strategy (PVS), respectively. It is shown that both systems exhibit strict threshold dynamics which depend on the basic reproduction number. If this number is below unity, the disease can be eradicated. And if it is above unity, the disease is endemic in the sense of global asymptotical stability of a positive equilibrium for continuous vaccination strategy and disease permanence for PVS. Mathematical results suggest that vaccination is helpful for disease control by decreasing the basic reproduction number. However, there is a necessary condition for successful elimination of disease. If the time for the vaccinees to obtain immunity or the possibility for them to be infected before this is neglected, this condition disappears and the disease can always be eradicated by some suitable vaccination strategies. This may lead to over-evaluating the effect of vaccination.     

Infection-age structured epidemic models with behavior change or treatment

We formulate infection-age structured susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models with behavior change or treatment of infections. Individuals change their behavior or have treatment after they are infected. Using infection age as a continuous variable, and dividing infectives into discrete groups with different infection stages, respectively, we formulate a partial differential equation model and an ordinary differential equation model with behavior change or treatment. We derive explicit formulas for the reproductive number by linear stability analysis of the infection-free equilibrium, and explicit formulas for the unique endemic equilibrium, when it exists, for both models. These formulas provide mathematical theoretical frameworks for analysis of impact of behavior change or treatment of infection to the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases. We study several special cases and provide sensitivity analysis for the reproductive numbers with respect to model parameters based on those formulas.     

一个具暂时免疫且总人数可变的传染病动力学模型

建立了一个具常恢复率和接触率依赖于总人数的SIRS传染病动力学模型，讨论了系统平衡点的存在性和稳定性，对双线性传染率的特殊情形，给出了传染病平衡点的全局稳定性结论，推广和改进了已有的相应结果。     

几个具有隔离项的传染病模型的局部稳定性和全局稳定性

首先建立了一类具常恢复率,有效接触率依赖于总人数的SIQS传染病模型,并得到了阈值参数σ的表达式.如果σ≤1,则疾病消除平衡点全局稳定;如果σ>1,则存在唯一的传染病平衡点且是局部渐近稳定的。对于带有双线性传染率和标准传染率的两个相应模型,我们进一步证明了当σ>1时传染病平衡点的全局稳定性。其次对于带隔离项修正的传染率的相应模型,我们同样证明了传染病平衡点只要存在唯一就一定全局稳定的结论。上述结果均推广和改进了Hethcote et al.(2002)的相应工作。     

一类分段光滑的捕食-食饵模型的动力学分析

考虑到某些动物有冬眠的习性,本文提出了食饵有冬眠习性的分段光滑的捕食-食饵模型,得到了平凡周期解全局稳定的条件.数值模拟表明,在一定的条件下,捕食者食饵将持续共存.     

一类具有垂直传染的SIR传染病模型

讨论了一类具有垂直传染的SIR传染病模型：(dS)/(dt)=6(1-m)(S R) (1- m)pb′I-βSI,(dI)/(dt)=βSI qb′I-d′I-rI,(dR)/(dt)=rI mb(S R) mpb′I-dR获得了无病平衡点与地方病平衡点的全局稳定性．     

SIR-SVS epidemic models with continuous and impulsive vaccination strategies

Vaccination is important for the control of some infectious diseases. This paper considers two SIR-SVS epidemic models with vaccination, where it is assumed that the vaccination for the newborns is continuous in the two models, and that the vaccination for the susceptible individuals is continuous and impulsive, respectively. The basic reproduction numbers of two models, determining whether the disease dies out or persists eventually, are all obtained. For the model with continuous vaccination for the susceptibles, the global stability is proved by using the Lyapunov function. Especially for the endemic equilibrium, to prove the negative definiteness of the derivative of the Lyapunov function for all the feasible values of parameters, it is expressed in three different forms for all the feasible values of parameters. For the model with pulse vaccination for the susceptibles, the global stability of the disease free periodic solution is proved by the comparison theorem of impulsive differential equations. At last, the effect of vaccination strategies on the control of the disease transmission is discussed, and two types of vaccination strategies for the susceptible individuals are also compared.     

Global stability and optimisation of a general impulsive biological control model

An impulsive model of augmentative biological control consisting of a general continuous predator-prey model in ordinary differential equations, i.e. a meta-model, augmented by a discrete part describing periodic introductions of predators is considered. The existence of an invariant periodic solution that corresponds to prey eradication is shown and a condition ensuring its global asymptotic stability is given. An optimisation problem related to the preemptive use of augmentative biological control is then considered. It is assumed that the per time unit budget of biological control (i.e. the number of predators to be released) is fixed and the best deployment of this budget is sought in terms of release frequency. The cost function to be minimised is the time needed to reduce an unforeseen prey (pest) invasion occurring at a worst time instant under some harmless level. The analysis shows that the optimisation problem admits a countable infinite number of solutions. An argumentation considering the required robustness of the optimisation result with respect to the invasive prey population level and to the model parameters is then conducted. It is shown that the cost function is decreasing in the predator release frequency so that the best deployment of the biocontrol agents is to carry out as frequent introductions as possible.     

Global stability of an SIR epidemic model with information dependent vaccination

We study the global behavior of a non-linear susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR)-like epidemic model with a non-bilinear feedback mechanism, which describes the influence of information, and of information-related delays, on a vaccination campaign. We upgrade the stability analysis performed in d’Onofrio et al. [A. d’Onofrio, P. Manfredi, E. Salinelli, Vaccinating behavior, information, and the dynamics of SIR vaccine preventable diseases, Theor. Popul. Biol. 71 (2007) 301] and, at same time, give a special example of application of the geometric method for global stability, due to Li and Muldowney. Numerical investigations are provided to show how the stability properties depend on the interplay between some relevant parameters of the model.     

Modeling the impact of immigration on the epidemiology of tuberculosis

This paper presents two new theoretical frameworks to investigate the impact of immigration on the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis. For the basic model, we present new analysis on the existence and stability of equilibria. Then, we use numerical simulations of the model to illustrate the behavior of the system. We apply the model to Canadian reported data on tuberculosis and observe a good agreement between the model prediction and the data. For the extended model, which incorporated the recruitment of the latent and infectious in immigrants to the basic model, we find that the usual threshold condition does not apply and a unique equilibrium exists for all parameter values. This indicates that the disease does not disappear and becomes endemic in host areas. This finding is also supported by numerical simulations with the extended model. Our study suggests that immigrants have a considerable influence on the overall transmission dynamics behavior of tuberculosis.     

多时滞三种群捕食模型的持久性和全局渐近性

研究了一类多时滞非自治三种群捕食模型的持久性和全局渐近稳定性,分别利用比较原理和构造Lyapunov函数方法得到了模型持久生存与全局渐近稳定性的充分条件,并举例说明定理的可行性且利用Matlab绘出图像.     

A Susceptible-infected Epidemic Model with Voluntary Vaccinations

An susceptible-infected epidemic model with endogenous behavioral changes is presented to analyze the impact of a prophylactic vaccine on disease prevalence. It is shown that, with voluntary vaccination, whether an endemic equilibrium exists or not does not depend on vaccine efficacy or the distribution of agent-types. Although an endemic equilibrium is unique in the absence of a vaccine, the availability of a vaccine can lead to multiple endemic equilibria that differ in disease prevalence and vaccine coverage. Depending on the distribution of agent-types, the introduction of a vaccine or, if one is available, a subsidy for vaccination can increase disease prevalence by inducing more risky behavior.I would like to thank one of the editors of the journal, Alan Hastings, for his comments and suggestions.     

Interaction of maturation delay and nonlinear birth in population and epidemic models

 A population with birth rate function B(N) N and linear death rate for the adult stage is assumed to have a maturation delay T>0. Thus the growth equation N′(t)=B(N(t−T)) N(t−T) e⁻ d ₁ T−dN(t) governs the adult population, with the death rate in previous life stages d ₁≧0. Standard assumptions are made on B(N) so that a unique equilibrium N _e exists. When B(N) N is not monotone, the delay T can qualitatively change the dynamics. For some fixed values of the parameters with d ₁>0, as T increases the equilibrium N _e can switch from being stable to unstable (with numerically observed periodic solutions) and then back to stable. When disease that does not cause death is introduced into the population, a threshold parameter R ₀ is identified. When R ₀<1, the disease dies out; when R ₀>1, the disease remains endemic, either tending to an equilibrium value or oscillating about this value. Numerical simulations indicate that oscillations can also be induced by disease related death in a model with maturation delay. Received: 2 November 1998 / Revised version: 26 February 1999     

Saturation recovery leads to multiple endemic equilibria and backward bifurcation

The number of patients need to be treated may exceed the carry capacity of local hospitals during the spreading of a severe infectious disease. We propose an epidemic model with saturation recovery from infective individuals to understand the effect of limited resources for treatment of infectives on the emergency disease control. It is shown that saturation recovery from infective individuals leads to vital dynamics, such as bistability and periodicity, when the basic reproduction number R₀ is less than unity. An interesting dynamical behavior of the model is a backward bifurcation which raises many new challenges to effective infection control.